Dean holds strong lead over Kerry in N.H. poll

[matcom]

<snip>

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean holds a strong 12-point lead over Senator John F. Kerry in the New Hampshire primary race, but Democratic primary voters are evenly divided over which of the two men would better be able to defeat President Bush, according to a new Boston Globe and WBZ-TV poll.

Underscoring his front-runner status, Dean drew support from 38 percent of likely voters, compared with 26 percent for Kerry, who remains in second place in the state. Potentially more significant is Dean's appeal among voters who backed Senator John S. McCain in 2000: 54 percent of those who supported McCain's maverick candidacy -- and helped the Arizona Republican soundly defeat George W. Bush in the nation's first primary during the last campaign cycle -- said they intend to vote for Dean. Only 15 percent of McCain voters said they were planning to support Kerry.

And in an increasingly polarized political climate, Dean's supporters also showed more enthusiasm for their candidate, suggesting that the rage among Democratic partisans has not subsided. While 32 percent of Dean backers say they will "definitely support" him in the primary, 26 percent of Kerry's supporters say the same for the Massachusetts senator.

Beyond the candidates, respondents described feeling insecure about their finances and personal security, with nearly half stating that they are worse off now than they were four years ago. They largely blame Bush for their economic woes; at the same time, they would like to see only some of the Bush tax cuts repealed. More than two-thirds said that the United States is losing the war on terrorism, even though about half of them supported military intervention in Iraq.

The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, all of whom said they were registered Democrats or Independents, was conducted by KRC/Communications Research of Newton on Tuesday and Wednesday, just as the airwaves were filled with images of Kerry officially declaring his candidacy. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points -- in other words, Dean's level of support could be as high as 43 percent, or as low as 33 percent.

Once the presumed front-runner in a nine-way race for the nomination, Kerry has struggled to match Dean's pace in fund-raising and his surge in the polls, although advisers to Kerry's campaign and independent analysts note that the Jan. 27 primary is still months away.

"Obviously, it's an indecisive moment and people are fishing around, and the number of people who are willing to jump one way or another is still very, very large," Alan Schechter, professor of political science at Wellesley College, said. Still, Schechter said, "The Kerry people have been saying Dean will fall on his face, and clearly that hasn't happened."


http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/09/07/dean_holds_strong_lead_over_kerry_in_nh_poll/

[clar]

1. tapping foot impatiently.....

while awaiting the inevitable entrance of the usual suspects, those who will eagerly point out how much support Dean's lost to Kerry since the Zogby poll and Kerry's announcement.

C'mon, where are you guys?

[southern democrat]

3. Same poll:Clark gets

5% undicided jumps from 9% to 23%.if Clark gets in.I see great potential in N.H. for Clark.

[Karmadillo]

4. Well, since you asked, a nine point drop. At this rate,

Kerry will be up by 20-30 points in February. :)

Seriously, Dean supporters should be happy he's done so well, but I think as candidates dump more money into the race and NH residents increasingly hesitate to turn on their televisions for fear of seeing yet one more campaign ad, the numbers will inevitably tighten. Should be an interesting (and fun) next five months.

[onehandle]

6. Two-thirds of voters still can't name a single Dem candidate...

...and if we believed the polls at this time in 1991, The Democratic Nominee would have been Mario Cuomo. Clinton was nearly dead last.

These facts support no one. How's that?

[samurai_jack]

8. nothing personal...

...but it gets a little annoying seeing people use that example as a reason why Candidate X can come back from a deficit to win in NH. I'm not disputing the conclusion, but c'mon, in 1991, Mario Cuomo never actually decided to run for president, he never set-up a campaign, he never actually did any formal campaigning for the nomination. Most academics who've studied that election agree that the only reason Clinton ever got any traction was precisely because Cuomo DID NOT RUN.

Had Cuomo run, he likely would have won the nomination and the presidency. I would almost certainly have voted for him over Clinton.

The best example of the NH comeback is 1984.

[onehandle]

9. Hillary isn't either...

But the whore press Loves to point out that she's polling at Number one.

The only reason that Dean and Kerry are getting any traction is because Hillary and Gore are not running.

My point is that this is all up in the air.

[newyawker99]

11. Hi samurai_jack!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[jos]

2. 7% for for New Englander Lieberman

Impressive showing there Joe.:nopity:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. that's: NYC suburbanite Lieberman

He's hardly a true New Englander. Even a true blue Dem like Chris Dodd can't escape the evil influence of the Connecticut corporate lobby.

[AndyTiedye]

10. Connecticut Will Always be the (Wooden) Nutmeg State

I grew up there so I'm entitled to bash it.

[Cha]

5. Kick!

:kick: