Recall Makes Extra Work for Pollsters

[newyawker99]

Polls are playing a prominent - albeit capricious - role in this year's gubernatorial race, as voters face an unprecedented recall election and a colorful cast of 135 replacement candidates.

In just one month, candidates have cited polls as the reason for entering the race, dropping out or asking their opponents to drop out. And most have used polls to help them raise money. So far, campaign finance reports show, the candidates have spent more than $200,000 on polls.

But just when polls have become most essential, many say they have become the most unreliable. Changes in the way Californians and Americans live have made calls from opinion pollsters unwelcome intrusions, forcing them to make more calls and take more time to get what they hope is a representative sample of public opinion.

"Polling has always been difficult to do, but it is just getting that much worse - I think half the time these guys are just guessing," said Allan Lichtman, a historian and political scientist at American University in Washington, D.C. "It's really an art not a science."


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