STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 3 December

[ozymandius]

Friday December 3, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 48 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 357 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 46 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1107
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 2, 2004

Dow... 10,585.12 -5.10 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,143.57 +5.34 (+0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,190.33 -1.04 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.40% +0.02 (+0.50%)
Gold future... 452.30 -3.60 (-0.80%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.81 Change -0.14 (-0.17%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 81.76

Dollar Set for First Weekly Gain in 10 Versus Yen on U.S. Jobs

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=auqLhq6fPdwk&refer=japan

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for its first weekly gain in 10 versus the yen in Asia on expectations a report today will show U.S. employers added enough jobs to fuel consumer spending and the economy.

The yen also fell after Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Japan will act to stem its advance ``if necessary.'' The dollar yesterday dropped to a fifth record in a week against the euro and its lowest versus the yen in almost five years, prompting some investors to bet its slide was excessive.

``The combination of the payrolls report and a sense that positions have gotten over-extended has led to the pullback in the dollar,'' said David Mozina, a currency strategist in Sydney at ABN Amro Holding NV. At the same time, ``we're closer to the point where Japan takes action'' to sell its currency.

<snip>

``There's nothing that says Japan has to intervene at this level,'' said Toru Umemoto, a market analyst in Tokyo at Keio University's Global Security Research Center, which is headed by former Japanese vice finance minister Eisuke Sakakibara. ``Fears of Bank of Japan action may delay the dollar's fall, but the trend remains unchanged.''

The dollar may decline to 100 yen in the next couple of weeks, Umemoto said.

...more...

nothing like being late to the party - here's the WashPost!

U.S. Dollar Continues Its Broad Decline
Value Against Euro Hits All-Time Low

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26914-2004Dec1.html

The U.S. dollar sank anew against other major currencies yesterday, even though Japanese officials publicly raised the prospect of joining with European governments to brake its slide.

The dollar's decline was particularly sharp against the British pound, which was trading at $1.9327 yesterday, compared with $1.9107 Tuesday. The British currency has not traded at such a high rate against the dollar since September 1992, when a speculative attack sent the pound tumbling and forced Britain out of the European monetary system that eventually led to the creation of the euro.

<snip>

Those comments underscored, however, that the Bush administration is not inclined to throw its weight behind an intervention. Treasury Secretary John W. Snow has regularly repeated the administration's policy of favoring a "strong dollar," but he has also reiterated Washington's preference for letting market forces set exchange rates.

Many analysts say U.S. officials are content to see the dollar decline because it helps boost the U.S. manufacturing sector by making exports cheaper and imports more expensive. The dollar's move could get out of hand, some economists warn, if foreigners panic and unload their holdings of U.S. stocks and bonds en masse. But administration officials have indicated that they view the likelihood of such a scenario as remote.

Traders said the factors driving the dollar lower yesterday were the same as those that have prevailed in recent weeks -- worry about the burgeoning U.S. trade deficit, hints that some foreign central banks might switch their reserves from dollars to euros, and the clear lack of interest by the U.S. authorities in halting the trend.

...more...

Oh gosh! Should we start paying attention now? /sarcasm

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar falls against euro and yen following jobs report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.3649819907-828611080&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar dropped against the euro and the yen after the Labor Department reported U.S. job growth slowed in November. The greenback was most recently down 0.4 percent against the euro, at $1.3323. The U.S. currency was off 0.3 percent versus the yen, at 102.89.

[UpInArms]

17. Dollar at 8:31 EST - 81.37 on the index

Last trade 81.37 Change -0.58 (-0.71%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 81.36

Last tick: 2004-12-03 08:31:33 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

48. BoJ should look at side-effects of easy credit policy - Mizuno -

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1102070570-9e32d306-16432

TOKYO (AFX) - Atsushi Mizuno, who today joined the Bank of Japan's nine-member policy board, said he believes the central bank should begin to look at the side-effects of its ultra-easy credit policy, and possibly shift its focus from structural problems to cyclical factors. In his first press conference, Mizuno called for the BoJ board to start examining the validity of its quantitative easing monetary policy because he sees early signs of an asset price inflation bubble developing again in Japan as a result of the prolonged zero-rate interest policy

"As the original target of the introduction of the monetary credit policy easing -- that is, the stabilization of the financial system and prevention of a deflationary spiral -- is beginning to be achieved, we probably need to examine whether maintaining this policy is justified," Mizuno said

"For instance, while it hasn't been reflected in prices, the tightening of credit spreads and recent moves in the distressed asset market may be signaling (the recurrence) of an asset price bubble in Japan." "Although the current board members seem to believe the current deflation in Japan may just shift to disinflation, I am looking further ahead," Mizuno elaborated

"And from the viewpoint of asset price stabilization, the prolonged quantitative monetary policy easing could distort asset price development in the future," he said

Mizuno's views are unlikely to have any immediate effect on BoJ policy, as the nine-member policy board has voted unanimously at its past 14 meetings to maintain its so-called quantitative easing policy

Under that policy, the BoJ floods the market with excess liquidity to keep short-term interest rates near zero. That policy, which the BoJ has maintained since March 2001, is aimed at ending Japan's six-year battle with deflation. "I understand he (Mizuno) is well-known as a 'hawkish' or bullish economist, whose thinking is close to that of (Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko) Fukui," said Akio Yoshino, senior economist at Societe Generale Asset Management

more...

[UpInArms]

2. China Aviation Oil Investigated by Singapore Police (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aZTXfsMAOKOk&refer=asia

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp., which supplies a third of China's jet fuel, is being investigated by Singapore's white-collar crime unit after disclosing $550 million of losses on derivatives trades.

``The Commercial Affairs Department has commenced its investigation,'' Singapore police spokeswoman Teo Poh Ling said. The department is ``working closely'' with Singapore Exchange Ltd., which runs the city's securities and derivatives market, and the central bank, she said today by telephone.

China Aviation, a unit of Beijing-based China Aviation Oil Holding Co., said this week it will seek court protection from creditors after losses caused by bad bets on oil prices. The disclosure highlights a lack of transparency at many China- related companies, Standard & Poor's said.

``It highlights the risk of companies getting involved with more complicated financial transactions,'' said John Bailey, a Hong Kong-based credit analyst at Standard & Poor's, which hasn't assigned a rating on China Aviation. ``As the market starts to open up, these risks are becoming a lot more relevant for investors and authorities.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. 8 Accused of Inflating Kmart Profit

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30284-2004Dec2.html

The Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday filed civil fraud charges against three former Kmart Corp. executives and five employees of companies that supplied the Troy, Mich., retail chain, accusing them of scheming to inflate Kmart's profit by $24 million in 2001.

Regulators said Kmart workers colluded with confederates at Eastman Kodak Co., Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. and subsidiaries of Pepsico Inc. to improperly accelerate promotional and marketing payments from the suppliers. Some of the defendants conspired to lie to Kmart's auditors at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP by signing false accounting documents, the SEC said.

Kmart grew "increasingly dependent" on promotional payments in the years before it filed for bankruptcy court protection in 2002, the SEC complaint said. "Unrealistic" earnings targets set by top Kmart managers compounded the "tremendous pressure" to collect supplier payments, it said. Kmart emerged from bankruptcy protection last year as Kmart Holding Corp. and recently announced a bid to acquire Sears, Roebuck and Co.

<snip>

The defendants who settled agreed to pay a total of $160 million in civil penalties. Frank, who did not turn over money because of his inability to pay, agreed to a five-year ban on serving as an officer or director of a public company.

<snip>

SEC officials cited e-mail messages in January 2001 between Abbood and Kirkpatrick, in which the Coca-Cola salesman allegedly agreed to help Kmart plug a $5 million shortfall. "I'll bring the donuts and the checkbook," Kirkpatrick wrote.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. IBM's PC business up for sale - to China

http://www.techworld.com/networking/news/index.cfm?NewsID=2738

IBM has put its PC business up for sale and is looking to sell to a Chinese buyer.

According to a report in The New York Times, IBM is discussing selling the business to Chinese biggest PC manufacturer, The Lenovo Group, and at least one other potential buyer, according to the article. The price of the sale and the status of the negotiations were not mentioned.

A spokeswoman for IBM declined to comment on the story and a spokeswoman for Lenovo had no immediate comment.

IBM's personal systems group, which include its PC business, has shown strong year-on-year sales growth for each of the first three quarters of this year, according to the company.

Revenues increased 17 percent compared to the three-month period a year ago to US$3.3 billion on strong sales of mobile PCs during the third quarter, the company said in October. Similarly, strong sales of mobile PCs contributed to 16 percent year-on-year growth for the second quarter and 18 percent year-on-year growth for the first quarter, the company said previously.

...more...

How freakin' sad is that?

:(

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

10. Something to consider:

PC's are now a very low profit, commodity item. For a company like IBM, this is a drag on them, to have to keep competitive in this highly saturated market.

Furthermore, and this is admittedly more than a little "outside", this division is very x86 oriented. IBM has a real comer in their newest PowerPC cpus. Does this mean a new alignment and retrenchment for them in Power architecture PCs? Every once in a while there are rumblings, but few of them can be definitively traced to IBM. Just coy things tossed about without clear attribution.

One more thing: The new XBox is based upon the PowerPC. Not x86.

All interesting stuff that signifies god-knows-what. But I am sure it means something.

[UpInArms]

11. my reaction was merely a personal one

not necessarily economic or socio-political.

My late father-in-law worked for IBM for 40 years, was in on the cutting edge of the computer technology in the 40s - retired in the 80s.

[Tempest]

27. How much did IBM benefit from Boosh's tax cuts?

$600 million by some estimates.

And this is how IBM repays America's taxpayers?

[UpInArms]

29. loyalty to the country that

enabled a corporation to even spring into being?

Oh, my friend, you must be confused.

A corporation is a freakin' machine with only ONE mandate:

PROFIT AT ALL AND ANY COST

[UpInArms]

5. Today's Reports:

Dec 3 8:30 AM
Average Workweek Nov
report -
briefing.com 33.8
market 33.8
last report 33.8
revised -

Dec 3 8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings Nov
report -
briefing.com 0.3%
market 0.3%
last report 0.3%
revised -

Dec 3 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov
report -
briefing.com 180K
market 200K
last report 337K
revised -

Dec 3 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate Nov
report -
briefing.com 5.4%
market 5.4%
last report 5.5%
revised -

Dec 3 10:00 AM
ISM Services Nov
report -
briefing.com 58.0
market 58.5
last report 59.8
revised -

[UpInArms]

7. Reports coming in

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE 66.1% VS. 65.9%

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. AGGREGATE HOURS WORKED DOWN 0.2%

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. SERVICES PAYROLLS UP 104,000

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. OCT., SEPT. NONFARM PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN 54,000

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL 5,000

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.1% VS. 0.3 EXPECTED

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. AVERAGE WORKWEEK 33.7 VS. 33.9 EXPECTED

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.1% VS 0.3% EXPECTED

8:29am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. JOBLESS RATE 5.4% AS EXPECTED

8:29am 12/03/04 US NOV NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 112,000 VS 204,000 EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. Nov. nonfarm payrolls up disappointing 112,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.3542573264-828609599&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased a disappointing 112,000 in November while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4 percent, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Economists were looking for stronger growth of about 204,000 in November. Payroll gains in September and October were revised down by a total of 54,000. The average workweek fell by a tenth of an hour to 33.7 hours, while total hours worked in the economy dropped by 0.2 percent. Average hourly wages rose 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $15.83.

Nov. nonfarm payrolls up 112,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4E6A5C39%2DE60C%2D4088%2DB0B7%2DF1BC5E5A39E5%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Payroll gains in September and October were revised down by a total of 54,000. October's gains were revised to 303,000 from 337,000. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 178,000 per month.

Employment is up 2.3 million since the nadir in August 2003.

Further details of the business establishment survey were weak. The average workweek fell by a tenth of an hour to 33.7 hours, while total hours worked in the economy dropped by 0.2 percent.

Average hourly wages rose 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $15.83. Weekly earnings dropped 0.2 percent to $533.47.

In November, 51.8 percent of the 278 industries were adding jobs, down from 58.8 percent in October.

Manufacturing firms shed 5,000 jobs, the third decline in a row after small gains earlier in the year. Construction added 11,000 jobs after a big gain in October in the aftermath of the hurricanes.

Services added 104,000 jobs in November after 241,000 in October. Retail firms lost 16,000 jobs. Professional and business services added 28,000 after 100,000 in October, including 9,000 more in temporary help agencies. Health care added 28,000 jobs.

...much more detail at link...

[54anickel]

68. Another link to Papau's usual post -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x12983

[ozymandius]

9. Jobs, Intel Vie

Stocks set to gain on Intel

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open Friday, bolstered by a raised sales forecast from Intel, but there was some trepidation ahead of the release of the November employment report at 8.30 a.m. ET.

-cut-

"The jobs report is very important, especially in light of some disappointing consumer confidence numbers, somewhat weak economic data, and yesterday's shocking increase in weekly jobless claims," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fiztgerald.

"Plain and simple, we need to meet consensus of 200,000. With a good report, we should have the green light to move higher and finish this week with all but the Dow at new rally highs."

-cut-

In the second major focus for the market, shares of Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) soared 8.4 percent, to $24.63 in pre-market trading on Instinet after the world's biggest chip maker lifted its sales forecast for the fourth quarter.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. Dow futures tumble 44 pts after Nov jobs data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.358253206-828610188&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell about 44 points after the U.S. November jobs report came in way below economist expectations. The contract was last quoted down 4 at 10,590, well below its early peak of 10,640. The S&P 500 futures contract was up 1.3 points at 1,191, off its high of 1,196, while the Nasdaq 100 contract was up 9 at 1,622, compared with its high of 1,631.

[ozymandius]

13. contrasting computer news

Morgan adds to PC market caution
Says 2005 shipments to rise but at slower rates than 2004

Morgan analyst Rebecca Runkle lowered her 2005 unit-shipment growth forecast to 9 percent from 11 percent over 2004. She cites better-than-expected performance in the PC market in 2004, as well as signs of a slowdown in the market late in the year.

In a research note, Runkle said sales in the consumer market, as well as among small and medium-size businesses and the government, declined in second-half 2004. A "meaningful acceleration" in the enterprise business sector would be needed for the overall PC market to post a year of double-digit growth in 2005.

In Runkle's view, Dell (DELL: news, chart, profile) and Apple Computer (AAPL: news, chart, profile) show the best chances of gaining market share in 2005. Runkle said Dell remains in the best fundamental position for the market, while Apple should continue to benefit from the momentum of the iPod and its recent new iMac release. Runkle also said Gateway (GTW: news, chart, profile) should also do well as it expands in retail strategy.

-cut-

Runkle's assessment came the same week that Gartner (IT: news, chart, profile) said it believes three of the top 10 PC vendors will leave the market by 2007. Gartner analyst Leslie Fiering said Monday that slower growth rates and thinner profit margins will lead to consolidation over the next three years.

more...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA8970683%2D4549%2D47D8%2DA7CE%2D04EB64052FD3%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[54anickel]

33. Heh, guess that would explain the decision of "I've Been Moved" (IBM) n/t

[UpInArms]

26. ISM Services November 2004 Report

10:03am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. ISM SERVICES EMPLOYMENT 55.0 VS. 55.8

10:02am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. ISM SERVICES 61.3% VS. 58.7% EXPECTED

10:03am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. ISM SERVICES FASTEST SINCE NOV.

10:03am 12/03/04 U.S. NOV. ISM SERVICES NEW ORDERS 59.9 VS. 60.5

[ozymandius]

6. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Ten Year Note Technical Reversal Suggests Interest Rate Trend Is Up
Retail Stocks Likely Impacted

A major pillar of the rationale supporting the rich stock market valuations has been the assumed sustainability of low interest rates. Yet on Monday, the 10-year Treasury note price completed a technical reversal pattern suggesting that interest rates will head higher, and bond prices lower. If the completed technical pattern holds true, then a stock market swoon is likely to occur because over the long haul, stocks do not perform well when interest rates rise. When the market will sober up is a more difficult question to answer because it is currently smitten with the latest gadget, Internet search engine, and hot retailer. Recent history has shown that speculative stock market leadership can rise fast and far, but when the rally ends, the fall is steep. Meanwhile, out-performance of retail stocks with upper-middle-class versus lower-middle-class customers suggest that consumer confidence is probably being driven by the preponderance of paper gains in housing and stock portfolios. Higher interest rates are likely to erode these paper gains in the intermediate term, which may hurt consumer confidence and stocks - especially retail stocks. Tonight I will illustrate some key technical charts to support this conclusion.

Ten-Year Note Completes Head and Shoulders

Below is a long-term weekly chart of the 10-Year Treasury note interest rate indicating since the middle of last year, there have been a series of higher lows and higher highs. In a backdrop of chatter about low interest rates and healthy secondary corrections from its recent primary uptrend, the 10-year interest rate has been slowly and steadily rising.

-cut-

Retailers Showing a “Portfolio Divide”

There appears to be a divide between lower and upper middle class broad line retailers’ stock performance over the last three months until the last weekend. It suggests to me that there is a divide between the confidence of those folks who feel wealthy because of their apparent stock and home value, and those who are not benefiting as much from these apparent paper gains. Below is a chart of broad line retailer’s performance over the last three months (as of Saturday).

Performance of the upscale retailers ranged from gains of 20 to 28%, whereas Wal-Mart and J.C. Penney posted gains of less than 5% over the last 3 months. One could argue the fact that low-scale retailers K-mart and Sears stocks (not shown) were great performers in the last few months. However, fundamentally Sears achieved same-store sales increases of only 1.5% in October, and K-mart managed a sales decrease of 12.8% in the 3rd quarter. Their excellent recent stock performance was tied to other factors not related to how poorly their stores were doing.

more...like the flat-lining of yesterday's market averages despite huge volume.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

14. this one makes me want to puke

Timken gets $39.7M payment in antidumping duties

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.3616782407-828610596&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The Timken Co. (TKR) said Friday the U.S. Customs agency will give the bearings and steel alloy maker $39.7 million collected by the U.S. government in antidumping duties, the fourth year in a row Timken has received payment under the trade program. Timken said it would use the money for general corporate purposes and to repay debt. Shares were unchanged Thursday at $26.30.

*Co's buddy - laying off workers and sucking down $$$$

[UpInArms]

16. Fed rate hike still on despite poor payroll report: MFR

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.3691433565-828611544&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Federal Open Market Committee is still likely to raise interest rates to 2.25 percent at its Dec. 14 meeting, but further increases will be determined by the incoming economic data, said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR. The November nonfarm payroll report showing gains of 112,000 was "a poor report," he said. "Weak payroll data was widespread -- no one key area, no obvious distortions." The message is that October's revised payroll gain of 303,000 was unsustainable, he said. The three-month average of 178,000 is probably a better reflection of the underlying job growth than any one month's number.

[UpInArms]

18. Treasurys rally on Nov. U.S. jobs data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE8E6B747%2D9082%2D4EC2%2D861E%2DDF18A71B8CBC%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasury prices soared and yields dived after the Labor Department estimated November U.S. job additions well below expectations.

At 8:55 a.m. Eastern, the benchmark 10-year note was 24/32 ahead, at 99 16/32. Its yield ($TNX) , which moves in the opposite direction of price, fell to 4.32 percent.

The government estimated U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 112,000 in November while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4 percent.

Economists were looking for stronger growth of about 204,000 in November, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. None of the 42 economists surveyed forecast a figure as low as 112,000.

Payroll gains in September and October were revised down by a total of 54,000. October's gains were revised to 303,000 from 337,000. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 178,000 per month.

<snip>

The 30-year bond soared 1 9/32 to 105 23/32, its yield dropping to 4.98 percent.

...more...

[ozymandius]

19. Good lesson in basics: Why Mortgage Rates Rise and Fall

By Motley Fool Staff

Mortgage rates fluctuate along with other interest rates. Interest rates are affected chiefly by inflation and the market for debt (notes, bills, and bonds, among other instruments). With inflation extremely low in recent years, we've enjoyed low interest rates. But if signs of inflation begin to pop up, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) ("the Fed"), currently headed by Alan Greenspan (news - web sites), may hike up short-term interest rates via an adjustment in the rate of interest on "federal funds." The "fed funds" rate is the interest rate a bank can charge another bank for use of its excess money. The Fed can also change the "discount rate," or the rate paid by a bank to borrow short-term funds from the Fed. The prime rate and other rates (such as mortgage rates) are based primarily on these two interest rates.

-short lesson-

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1483&ncid=1203&e=8&u=/fool/20041202/bs_fool_fool/1101997860

[ozymandius]

20. Blue Chips Seen Down After Jobs Data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures trimmed gains on Friday, with blue chips seen opening lower, after government data showed November jobs growth came in unexpectedly low.

-cut-

A surprisingly soft 112,000 new U.S. jobs were created in November, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 180,000.

"The data is surprisingly weak and disappointing and a bit of a shock to the markets because we'd been in a mode of expecting more jobs," said Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management.

"This is a number that is good for bonds and not so good for stocks. Everything else being equal, the Fed will be less aggressive. It lowers the odds of another increase this month, but it's still likely."

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[UpInArms]

21. from the "Well, Duh!" category

Real wages falling, Maryland professor says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.3823060185-828613417&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- With average hourly wages up just 0.1 percent in November, take-home pay for most U.S. workers is falling behind the rising costs of energy and health care, said Peter Morici, business professor at the University of Maryland. "American workers can expect their paychecks to buy less and less each month," he said, while painting a grim picture for job growth in the near term. "Economic growth is already likely to slow in the first and second quarters of 2005, and further interest rate increases will further chill growth and jobs creation, without having significant effects on inflation."

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:13 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Near its lows, the futures trades suggest a flat to moderately higher for the indices, with the Nasdaq expected to bear the brunt of the buying interest... INTC's mid-quarter update continues to stir enthusiasm in technology.

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5. Futures market loses steam on the weaker than expected November employment report... Nonfarm payrolls clocked in at 112K, well below the consensus estimate of 200K... As a result, equity futures have weakened (although still suggesting a higher open) and the bond market has soared - the 10-year note up 33 ticks to 4.28%.

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. Futures market signaling a bullish start to the day following INTC's impressive mid-quarter update last night... The world's largest semiconductor company raised its revenues range to $9.3-9.5 bln from $8.6-9.2 bln and said results were at the high-end of seasonal patterns... The November employment report, released at 8:30 ET, should make its own impact on the futures trade.... Market is looking for nonfarm payrolls of 200K.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish again signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1569.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 14.00 pts. at 1627 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this fall's rally. The door is open for a possible test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term Closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at 1179.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 5.10 pts. at 1195.50 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

(edited for typo)

[UpInArms]

23. ROFLMAO!!!!

9:39am 12/03/04 WHITE HOUSE: BUSH'S ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE WORKING

[mmonk]

47. Yes

before long, we should become a banana republic.

[PATRICK]

52. Correction

the Top Banana Republic. I think that was a slip up.

[mmonk]

70. correct, the TBR

We're "top banana".

[UpInArms]

24. 9:45 EST numbers

Dow 10,608.25 +23.13 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,158.37 +14.80 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,193.98 +3.65 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.283% -0.114

NYSE Volume 105,630,000
Nasdaq Volume 246,222,000

[UpInArms]

25. Fed's Santomero sees sizable U.S. trade gap persisting

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38324.4065760764-828616731&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

PHILADELPHIA (CBS.MW) -- The large U.S. trade deficit will persist in 2005 without narrowing or widening, said Anthony Santomero, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank. "The recent declines in the value of the dollar, combined with reasonable growth in the economies of our trading partners, should help stabilize our net export position," Santomero said in opening remarks to a conference on globalization at the bank. But the relative strength of the U.S. economy is unlikely to diminish, Santomero said. "Hence we are likely to see sizable U.S. trade deficits for some time," he added.

9:45am 12/03/04 SANTOMERO: DOLLAR DECLINE SHOULD STABILIZE NET EXPORTS

9:45am 12/03/04 SANTOMERO: TRADE GAP WON'T WIDEN OR NARROW IN 2005

9:45am 12/03/04 FED'S SANTOMERO SEES SIZABLE U.S. TRADE GAP PERSISTING

Have I said how much I hate all these people lately?

:argh:

[UpInArms]

28. 10:07 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,638.25 +53.13 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,162.93 +19.36 (+0.90%)
S&P 500 1,196.99 +6.66 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.278% -0.119

NYSE Volume 242,250,000
Nasdaq Volume 479,125,000

9:40AM: Major indices start the day on a mixed note as the two 'headliners' of the morning produced different results... Intel's (INTC 24.38 +1.67) mid-quarter update was heralded as a success by the bulls as the company raised its Q4 (Dec) revenues outlook to $9.3-9.5 b$9.3-9.5 bln and said that sales from microprocessors and chip sets were stronger than expected across every geographic segment... As a result, semiconductor, chip equipment makers, computer hardware names, and other pockets of technology have rallied...

The other big news item of the day, however, was largely a disappointment for the broader market... The November jobs report missed estimates across the board: nonfarm payrolls rising 112K (consensus of 200K), hourly earnings of 0.1% (consensus of 0.3%), and average work week of 33.7 hours (consensus of 33.8 hours)... The unemployment rate, though, did match the expectation of 5.4%...

Last trade 81.46 Change -0.49 (-0.60%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 81.34

Last tick: 2004-12-03 09:38:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[wetbandit2003]

30. I dont understand

The dour attitude and sour grapes
about foward growth in the jobs market.
It is small I'll agree, but small growth
is better than no growth, right?
Just a thought.

[htuttle]

31. Stick around awhile

Let your hopes get inflated by worthless pundits, then dashed on the rocks of market speculation time and time again.

Then perhaps you'll understand the dour attitude toward so-called 'good news'.

[kysrsoze]

35. With about 100K people entering the labor force every month....

100K new jobs nets out equal. In other words, the same amount of people are out of work. In order to get back on real job growth adjusted for population growth, the figure needs to be much higher.

[54anickel]

32. Morning everyone! Sorry I'm late to the party, had ISP problems this

morning. DU seems a bit slow right now as well.

Found a few articles of interest before my ISP took a hike. I'll try to get them posted.

:hi:

[54anickel]

34. Inflation under control, says Fed's Bernanke (What a joker!)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=8&u=/afp/20041202/bs_afp/us_economy_fed_bernanke_041202204139

snip>


"I think inflation is still quite well-contained. And I think inflation expectations are well-contained," Bernanke told reporters after a speech to the National Economics Club.


"Whatever risks exist are not large ones."


But as the economy approaches full-employment over the next year or so, and as pricing power returns a bit, he maintained, "we need to be exceptionally vigilant to make sure that inflation pressures don't re-emerge."


Bernanke said the economy has been "quite resilient" and growth in the fourth quarter "will be similar, perhaps a bit higher" than the 3.9 percent growth rate in the third quarter.


snip>

He said US consumers must save more, but foreign countries must increase their domestic demand and not rely so much on the US markets to sell their goods.

more...

[54anickel]

36. Cost of health care outpacing inflation

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/10325746.htm?1c

NEW YORK - The cost of treating an American with private health insurance rose at an annual rate of 7.5 percent in the first half of the year, virtually the same as the 7.6 percent increase for all of 2003, a new study has found.

That ended two years of more significant declines, causing the study's coauthor, Paul B. Ginsburg, to worry that the rate of spending increases could grow again as programs designed to contain costs have had little effect.

Even if the rate of increase does not jump dramatically, he said, it is still at a level that outpaces inflation and could lead to more employers' dropping health coverage. Inflation for the 12 months through October was 3.2 percent.

"We have leveled off at a place that is problematic," said Ginsburg, president of the Center for Studying Health System Change, a research group that conducted the study with the Employee Benefit Research Institute. "There is just not much optimism that we know how to control costs."

snip>

Unlike other studies, this one measures what is paid to providers such as hospitals and doctors instead of health-care premiums paid by employers to buy coverage. Some studies measuring premiums have showed a continued decline in the growth rate.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Consumers could get caught under falling dollar (Ya think?)

Wall Street cheering, but currency shift carries risk for housing

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6638996/

Is the dollar's latest dive anything to be afraid of?

From Wall Street to Washington, the answer has been a resounding "no." Economists, traders and business leaders have been cheering loudly, saying a decline in the currency is long overdue, boosting the ability of U.S. producers to compete in a tough global environment.

Few take seriously the Bush administration’s occasional pronouncements that it still favors a “strong dollar," and even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave a nod of approval to the trend in a high-profile speech in Europe last month.

The dollar’s decline “is medicine needed to promote the healing of global imbalances,” said J.P. Morgan Chase senior economist Bruce Kasman in a commentary titled “Two Cheers for the Dollar Decline.”

But for consumers, that medicine could be hard to swallow, especially if the dollar’s decline turns into a free fall. That could spark a run-up in inflation and force the Federal Reserve to raise rates aggressively, potentially bringing down the high-flying housing market.

“A weaker dollar, generally speaking, is better for business and bad for consumers,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com, a forecasting firm.

more...

[54anickel]

38. White House to hold US economy conference

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/13f89360-448b-11d9-9f6a-00000e2511c8.html

President George W. Bush is to host a summit for business leaders this month to discuss his second-term economic agenda.

The December 15-16 summit in Washington would include the president, Vice-President Dick Cheney and other administration officials, and top business leaders and small businessmen. Scott McClennan, White House spokesman, said yesterday that panels would address the state of the economy, budget discipline, tax reform and Social Security reform.

Mr Bush held a similar forum in Waco, Texas, in 2002 that was widely derided as a publicity stunt, with the guest list comprising chief executives who were key Republican donors.

While it is highly probable that only like-minded participants will be invited this month, the summit could also provide more details of Mr Bush’s economic ambitions ahead of his inauguration and State of the Union address next month.

Mr Bush has said that he wants to make the tax system simpler, fairer and more pro-growth but he has provided few details. A tax reform panel is expected to report to John Snow, the Treasury secretary, who would then send proposals to the White House.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Treasuries Rise the Most in Four Months After Employment Report

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ajG6LWhmBWXY&refer=us

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes rose the most in four months after the economy in November created about half the jobs forecast, tempering speculation the Federal Reserve may be poised to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases.

The rally brought an end to a slump that saw the benchmark 10-year note drop in each of the past seven trading days in New York, the longest such streak since March 2002. Investors had pushed prices down in anticipation of a strong payrolls report.

This report ``keeps the bottom from falling out of bond prices,'' said Andrew Harding, director of taxable bonds at National City Investment Management Co. in Cleveland. The probability of seeing an unbroken string of rate increases over the next few months ``has gone down marginally,'' he said.

The 4 1/4 percent note due in August 2014 gained more than 1 point, or $10 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 27/32 at 10:30 a.m., according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Its yield dropped 12 basis points to 4.28 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The yield on the two-year note, more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, dropped 12 basis points to 2.92 percent. That yield reached 3.10 percent Nov. 26, the highest since mid-2002.

Today's gains are the most since Aug. 6, when an employment report showed fewer jobs were added than expected in July. The yield dropped 18 basis points that day.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Crude Oil Prices Fall Below $43 a Barrel

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/12/03/ap1690130.html

Crude oil futures prices fell below $43 a barrel Friday, extending two days of sharp sell-offs as worries about low winter fuel inventories dissipate amid rising supplies.

Light, sweet crude for January was down 59 cents to $42.66 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in afternoon electronic trading in Europe. Earlier in the session, the contract reached as high as $43.75.

snip>

The sell-off was also fueled by a revised natural gas supply report from the U.S. Energy Department, which last week had mistakenly underrestimated the amount of natural gas in storage and by comments from an OPEC official that the group is likely to keep production at current levels when it meets next Friday.

"OPEC are saying that they are going to raise their basket price band slightly at the next meeting but I don't think it's enough really to do very much to help right now," said Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclay's Capital in London. "The market's still in the grip of this big price fall."

more...

[54anickel]

46. Official Says China Plans to Build 90-Day Strategic Oil Reserve

I thought they were already hording oil? :shrug:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041202/as_fin_eco_china_oil_reserve_1.html

HOUSTON (AP) -- China plans to build a 90-day strategic oil reserve, much larger than many analysts were anticipating, according to a Chinese official.

The size is in line with guidelines set by the International Energy Agency, said Pei Jianjun, an official of the Energy Bureau of the Chinese Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission.

Pei was speaking Thursday at a conference on strategic oil reserves organized by the U.S. Energy Department.

The buildup could increase pressure on global oil supplies in the coming years, but Pei said China would do its buying gradually.

"We will use the IEA's 90-day guideline," Pei said. "However, due to the specific situation in China, we will start with a lower number and increase as it evolves."

more...

[54anickel]

41. EU wants US to clear muddy waters in WTO row

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=2332954

Brussles - EU trade chief Peter Mandelson wants clarification of the US stance in threatened WTO action over aid to Airbus, his spokeswoman said Friday after a US official indicated Washington was delaying such action.

Mandelson was "interested" to hear more about the suggested delay until next year of a request for a World Trade Organisation panel to hear the US complaint in a transatlantic row over aid to aircraft makers Airbus Industrie and Boeing.

"Peter Mandelson is looking forward to (US Trade Representative Robert) Zoellick clarifying the US position," Mandelson's spokeswoman Claude Veron-Reville told reporters.

"If the United States is now pulling back from the WTO, Mr. Mandelson would be interested to hear this directly from the US trade representative, to hear what they intend to do next," she added.

The US official in Washington told AFP: "We will not be making a request to establish a WTO panel before the end of the year.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Halliburton Says Settlement on Track

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/12/03/ap1690192.html

Petroleum and energy services giant Halliburton Co. on Friday said that a district court judge has signed an order that will allow its settlement of asbestos lawsuits to take effect by the end of this month.

Additionally, the company said that a court rejection of a $1.2 billion asbestos settlement for ABB Ltd. has no baring on its own proceedings.

On Thursday, the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected a restructuring plan for the Swiss-Swedish engineering company, saying, "it may lack the requisite equality of distribution among creditors."

ABB's asbestos lawsuits mostly involved its Combustion Engineering unit, and the plan put that unit into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in order to protect ABB against future asbestos claims. ABB said Thursday it remained confident its U.S. asbestos litigation would be settled, as the plan had been approved by U.S. Bankruptcy Court and a U.S. District Court in Delaware.

Halliburton said that its own bankruptcy filings for its DII Industries, Kellogg Brown & Root and other units are structured differently than that of Combustion Engineering, as there are no asbestos-related liabilities channeled to a trust that are not the liability of the debtors.

more...


ABB Sees Asbestos Issue Taking Months

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6990855

ZURICH (Reuters) - ABB may take months to renegotiate a $1.2 billion settlement plan to cap potentially ruinous asbestos claims, the engineer said on Friday after a U.S. court rejected its initial proposal and its shares plunged.

The surprise rejection was a major setback for ABB, which had hoped the deal would end years of legal wrangling and put a cap on asbestos claims filed by thousands of former U.S. workers.

The stock was down 13.2 percent at 6.11 francs by 1452 GMT, wiping out all the gains made this year as the Swiss-based maker of transformers and robots worked its way out of deep losses.

snip>

ABB said it would take several months to resolve the issues raised by the appeals court, which objected to including claims relating to two U.S. divisions, Lummus and Basic, in the plan for ABB's asbestos-tainted Combustion Engineering unit.

more...

[54anickel]

43. 12:11 Lunchbreak update

Dow 10,608.62 +23.50 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,152.79 +9.22 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,193.14 +2.81 (+0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.250% -0.147
30-yr Bond 4.931% -0.117
NYSE Volume 726,419,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,241,786,000

12:05PM : Despite the presence of a weaker than expected November jobs report, the stock market has pressed higher today, encouraged by a bullish mid-quarter update from Intel (INTC 24.11 +1.40) and a strong November ISM Services Index.... The latter rose to its highest reading since July, coming in at 61.3 (consensus of 58.5), and provided upside impetus to the market when it was released at 10 ET...
The positive reaction to Intel's raised Q4 (Dec) guidance - revenues are now pegged at $9.3-9.5 bln as opposed to $8.6-9.2 bln earlier - has also contributed to the advance and sent the Nasdaq, for one, to multi-year highs... The Composite hit its highest levels since July 2001, coincidentally around the same time crude oil was reaching its lows for a 2% price pullback... Crude oil did eventually trade higher, after OPEC indicated that it was not ruling out production cuts, but the commodity is still significantly lower for the week... The only factor that has not worked in the bulls' favor has been the November jobs data, and that can explain why the market has not taken flight at mid-day... Nonfarm payrolls rose 112K, shy of the consensus estimate of 200K and last month's reading of 303K...

Hourly earnings also checked in at 0.1% (consensus of 0.3%) and the average work week was 33.7 hours (consensus of 33.8 hours)... The unemployment rate was the only positive part of the report, dropping 0.1 to 5.4%, but that came as a result of the household survey which is known as being less accurate... As a result of the data, the bond market has rallied wholeheartedly and contributed to strength seen in homebuilding and utility... Tech, though, has been the leading name in the market thanks to Intel's update...NYSE Adv/Dec 1972/1164, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1384/1527

11:25AM: Indices slowly work their way higher near the upper end of the morning's trading range... Crude oil has ended a fourth day of declines in the past half hour, reversing course to show a slight gain at $43.40/bbl after touching a three-month low earlier... News that OPEC has said that it can't rule out supply cuts has caused traders to bid up the January futures contract... Equities, however, have had little response to the movement - noting that the commodity is still down nearly 14% this week...NYSE Adv/Dec 1847/1234, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1277/1556

11:00AM: The market continues to trade in positive territory after dropping off its highs around the top of last hour... Decliners now lead advancers by a slight margin at the Nasdaq, due in part to a wave of profit taking following the Composite's impressive performance this week... Prospects for the tech sector remain bright, owing in part to Intel's (INTC 24.20 +1.49) encouraging mid-quarter update last night, but participants are reasoning such expectations are already priced in... Meanwhile, the treasury market is in full-fledged rally mode this morning following the weak nonfarm payrolls data...

The 10-year note is near its highs of the session, up 39 ticks to bring its yield to 4.25%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1752/1277, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1262/1511

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1971 (59%) 1372 (44%)
Declines 1178 (35%) 1557 (50%)
Unchanged 149 (4%) 141 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 396 (58%) 856 (71%)
Down Vol* 268 (39%) 325 (27%)
Unch. Vol* 11 (1%) 9 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 458 311
New Lo's 15 20



And the buck:
Last trade 81.36 Change -0.59 (-0.72%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 81.32

Last tick: 2004-12-03 11:40:29 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

44. Michigan may lose top car maker status

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/02/news/international/michigan_vs_ontario/index.htm

Report: Ontario will beat "Motor City" state as top car producer in 2004
December 2, 2004: 12:32 PM EST



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Michigan will give up its spot as the top vehicle production locale in North America this year, according to a report in Wards Auto. The new leader will be Ontario, Canada.

The Canadian province just across the border from Michigan, home state of "Motor City" Detroit, will produce about 89,000 more vehicles than Michigan, according to Wards. According to Wards' estimates 2.61 million vehicles will be produced in Michigan this year while 2.7 million will be produced in Ontario.

The switch may not last, however. Vehicle production in Michigan declined this year mostly because of model changeovers that required long factory shutdowns for retooling, according to Wards.

bit more...

[54anickel]

45. Just How Cheap Is Chinese Labor?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=66&ncid=749&e=11&u=/bw/20041202/bs_bw/nf20041226762db039

Every year the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compares manufacturing labor costs in the U.S. with those of about 30 global rivals. Its latest report, on Nov. 18, showed that average hourly compensation of foreign factory workers rose 12% in 2003, measured in dollars, compared with 4% in the U.S.

But these statistics have a glaring omission: China. The BLS can't compare Chinese and U.S. factory labor costs because reliable statistics from the Asian giant don't exist. That makes it hard to assess China's competitive strength.

TALE OF PATIENCE. Now, the info deficit is starting to be remedied. This past summer, the BLS hired a Beijing-based American consultant, Judith Banister, to dig through China's mountain of incomplete and sometimes unreliable statistics. The goal: to calculate average manufacturing compensation in China in 2002 -- the last year for which data was available. BusinessWeek was given a preview of her findings, which she will present to the BLS later this month.

Her estimate? The cost of Chinese factory labor is a paltry 64 cents an hour. Although that figure is rough, since it's pieced together from sketchy statistics, it's still the most thorough estimate ever compiled. It includes both wages and employer contributions for benefits and social insurance. And it covers not just city factory workers, who get the most attention, but the more numerous rural and suburban factory workers as well. For comparison, hourly factory compensation in the U.S. in 2002 was $21.11, and an average of $14.22 in the 30 foreign countries covered by the existing BLS report.

more...

[54anickel]

49. More Homeowners Borrowing Against Equity In Their Homes

http://www.theday.com/eng/web/news/re.aspx?re=3C1AED3A-3E9D-48EC-8EB7-D6DAF3966EA9

Americans may be filling the malls for holiday shopping, but when it comes to serious financing needs they are lining up in record numbers to tap their real estate equities.

New research by mortgage market giant Freddie Mac found that 60 percent of all refinanced mortgages the corporation purchased during the third quarter of 2004 involved “cashouts,'' where homeowners increased the size of their loans and pocketed the difference tax-free. That 60 percent figure was up from 42 percent during the second quarter and represents the highest rate since mid-2002.

Spendable cash

In hard-dollar terms, American homeowners converted $41 billion in real estate equity into spendable cash in the third quarter alone, up from $28.5 billion during the second quarter. For the year as a whole, Freddie Mac estimates that homeowners will cash out $118 billion of their home equity.

A typical cashout works like this: Say you have a mortgage balance of $200,000. But the market value of your house has appreciated over the past few years and the property is now worth $400,000. If you need cash, you could easily refinance your $200,000 loan and replace it with a $250,000 or $300,000 mortgage. The proceeds of the refinancing — $50,000 to $100,000, less the transaction costs — would be yours to keep, tax-free.

more...

[54anickel]

50. A Shock

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120204.html

Extracted from the December 1st, 2004 edition of Richard's Remarks

Martin Wolf in today's Financial Times heads his always brilliant column, "Why America is Switching to a Weak Dollar Policy." Sub-title -- "The present path is unsustainable, since both the current account deficit and external liabilities are on an explosive upwards trajectory." And I quote from Wolf's column, "How far might the dollar fall? By as much as 50% from its peak, in trade-weighted nominal terms, suggest two distinguished international economists, Maurice Obstfeld of Cal Berkeley and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard. Up to now, the fall has just been 17% on a broad trade-weighted basis. More, it seems, is on the way."

The Wolf column ends, "To bring about a substantial reduction in the external debt without a deep recession, the US needs a huge change in internal relative prices. If the financing of the deficit is indeed in doubt, a weak dollar is a certainty. Hard currency enthusiasts may want the US to choose a depression instead, or hope the deficit can grow without limit. Neither position is sensible. Big adjustments in the dollar's real value are a certainty. The only questions are when how, and how much."

Russell Comment -- Above is the hard-core, totally realistic view of the situation. Either the US takes a severe recession (which will result in a major reduction in spending) or the dollar must take the fall. At this point, it appears almost certain, to me, that the Fed and the Administration are willing to let the dollar take the fall. This will mean ultimately higher interest rates, and then the question is whether higher rates will bring on a recession anyway. In the meantime, US consumers continue to spend while their saving rate drops to almost zero. It's a barrel of fun while it lasts!

What does it mean for you and me when the dollar falls on a trend basis? It means that on an international or global basis, you and I are getting poorer. You don't believe it? Take a trip overseas and see what your dollars buy today, compared with what they bought a year or so ago.

What about stocks? Right now stocks are considered assets -- and the market is saying, "Buy anything, buy gold, buy silver, buy a house, buy stocks, buy diamonds, buy a Picasso -- buy any damn thing but get out of dollars!"

But what about declining stock profits? The hell with that -- just get out of dollars, and stocks are assets.

more...

[54anickel]

51. Capital gains taxes are likely to fall (Supply-side warning)

It worked so well the first time :eyes:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/appel/appel120304.html

snip>

The reason why I believe that we will likely be favored with further reduced capital gains taxes in the not too distant future is due to our government's desire to stimulate our nation's economy. There are a number of leading indicators and anecdotal evidence that suggest that our economy is expanding, albeit it at a reduced pace. However, there are just as many others that lead me to believe that our nation may be poised to again enter a period of economic turmoil which has the potential to be quite severe.

The U.S. dollar as viewed through the action of the U.S. Dollar Index began its present decline from its 120 peak in early 2002, and yesterday breached 82. This is an incredible 31% parity fall in the space of only two and one half years. In fact, it fell to a greater degree against numerous currencies such as the euro. Yet, not only did the significance of this amazing, broad collapse go virtually unnoticed until recently by the media, but it's expected effect has done little to stimulate our economy.

Foreigners make decisions to acquire our goods and services based upon the cost of our items in their own currencies. Something that cost 100 euros when the dollar was trading at $0.83 per euro declined to about 62 euros given today's euro vs. dollar exchange rate. A euro is presently worth about $1.33. Normally, even a far smaller increase in the euro's purchasing power vis a vis the dollar would have caused a rush of euro zone purchases of American goods and services. However, given the great competition and lower prices offered by the various Asian countries, a significant desire to acquire dollar denominated goods has not yet materialized. Additionally, the ability of most European Economic Community countries to purchase foreign goods has fallen. This is due to the weakening economies suffered by many of their members.

Despite the regular official commentary that the U.S. economy is doing well, I believe that great doubt pervades our administration and Federal Reserve about its true state and its future. During the past few years we have experienced rock bottom interest rates and an unprecedented high level of monetary stimulation. Further, the cost of many goods sold in America have stagnated or declined. Additionally, taxes have been lowered during the same period. The combination of these occurrences in the past would have generated a significant jolt to our country's economic performance. Yet, despite all of the fiscal and monetary machinations that have been implemented, the economy has been able to do little better than hold its own.

Our government and Fed officials recognize that confidence in the future of the economy is weakening and that any economic or financial misstep has the potential to frighten consumers into reducing their purchases. If such an event transpires it has the likelihood of effectively knocking the legs out from under our already fragile economy. A sharp decline in stock or housing prices, rapidly rising interest rates, a significant reduction in foreign purchases of U.S. goods, or some other surprise are all that is needed to trigger such an event.

The reason for President Bush's desire to reduce capital gains taxes during his first term of office was to stimulate the economy. Now, he realizes that all of his and the Federal Reserve's efforts have been insufficient to jump start a concrete economic recovery, and have only acted to forestall a recession.

more...

[54anickel]

53. Weak Job Data Won't Deter Fed

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/rebeccabyrne/10197355.html

The sluggish pace of job growth in November hasn't changed the odds for a quarter-point interest rate hike later this month, but maybe it should.

snip>

"Recall that the summer's 'soft patch,' which generated even weaker payroll results, did not stop the Fed from raising rates at the time," said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Cooper pointed out that, over the past three months, job growth has averaged 178,000 a month, which is respectable. Roughly 150,000 jobs are needed each month to keep up with the growth in the labor force.

Still, if government and temporary jobs are stripped out, the three-month average slips to 131,000 a month. And even this number has been exaggerated by a huge jump in October, which now appears to be a one-time event.

snip>

"The November numbers are in line with the message from the summer's drop in the help wanted index, which unfortunately points to another month or two of similar numbers," Shepherdson said.

snip>

The odds for a rate increase in February have now fallen to 80% from 86% and the odds for March have tumbled to 54% from 76%, according to Tony Crescenzi, chief bond strategist at Mille Tabak & Co.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Hitting The Wall...

http://www.dailypfennig.com/

snip>

Well... The currencies hit the wall yesterday... We've been wondering when this would happen, but the currencies had turned into the Energizer Bunny, and kept going, and going! Until we reached some very lofty levels yesterday, and the turn around was swift! Kiwi had pushed as high as .7250, sterling 1.9450, the euro was knocking on the door to 1.94, and then the trap door sprung! I told everyone on the desk... This looks like intervention... But everywhere we looked we couldn't find hide nor hair of a central bank intervening. Then a story came across that said... Currencies hit high water marks, and profit taking sets in... Made sense... We hit the wall, going too fast and coming from too far!

But that didn't sit right with me all day... Profit taking alone couldn't have moved the market like that.... Or could it? Ty Keough mentioned that oil had dropped significantly, and I said... OK... But I still don't see that as the catalyst to this move... Then finally after a long day I got it on the drive home... It was a combination of the verbal intervention that the Bank of Japan spewed out, profit taking, oil prices, and.... Drum roll please... The Jobs Jamboree today! Yes, once those lofty levels had been achieved yesterday morning, some lame brain decided that the Jobs Jamboree would probably wipe the gains out, and they began to take profits, which begat more profits, and so on...

So... Since the markets are so enamored with the Jobs Jamboree, which I have always contended looks at the wrong set of numbers, let's talk about it... The experts have upped the ante on the forecast to +200k... I'll go out there on the limb, as I usually do, and say that's still low for this time of year... Probably around 225k... But, as I do every month, I have to talk about how that number really should get the air play that it does... For what good does it do the economy if half of those jobs are minimum wage, temporary, or seasonal? Instead, why doesn't the market look and examine the numbers I do from this report? The Average Hourly Earnings, and Work week hours... These will tell us more about the shape of the economy than any report that contains "ghost" jobs and birth/death models!

However, should that jobs report disappoint, we'll be right back at the wall, and this time trying to run through it!

more...

[54anickel]

55. Meanwhile the buck has come full circle

Last trade 81.29 Change -0.66 (-0.81%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 81.28

Last tick: 2004-12-03 12:56:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

56. dollar taking a huge dive

into the dumpster

Last trade 81.12 Change -0.83 (-1.01%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 81.04

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-12-03 13:16:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

am going away for the rest of the day - see everyone later :hi:

[54anickel]

57. NOOOooo!!! Don't leave me here alone! Heh-heh, sorry, minor panic

attack there.

Looks like the buck is on the fasttrack again today.

81.09 and still falling

[UpInArms]

60. okay, 'cause I'm a compulsive

I had to peek back in:

GACK!!!

Last trade 81.02 Change -0.93 (-1.13%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 80.95

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-12-03 13:57:31 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Oh, well, since they want it down to 69, it still has a way to go

:nuke:

Are they still having a party on Wall Street?

Dow 10,590.44 +5.32 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,150.74 +7.17 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,190.66 +0.33 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.265% -0.132

NYSE Volume 1,122,380,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,803,030,000

lookie there! only 10 points away from 10,600!

:puke:

[54anickel]

62. Heh-heh, knew you couldn't stay away with the buck on a swan-dive!

[TrogL]

66. the Jobs Jamboree

Huh? :shrug:

[54anickel]

67. Heh, they were expecting a decent jobs report - but they didn't get it n/t

[54anickel]

58. New investor psychology is endangering retirements

May require registration - I've lost track :shrug:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=google,%20¶m=archive&siteid=google&guid=%7BAD6D763F%2D4755%2D4495%2D822D%2D4C6804AFC847%7D&garden=&minisite=

snip>

Investors are screaming: "Help, we're paralyzed!"

Paralyzed, and worse yet, in denial about it. Instead, our brains are programmed to consume, to live for the moment, to fanaticize a new bull market, act macho, drive monster Hummers and Excursions, buy propaganda about winning a costly global war, load up credit cards with holiday gift purchases ... and stand by paralyzed as Congress leads the way, loading more and more pork into already bloated federal deficits.

Get it? Today investors exist in two parallel universes: We're addicted to short-term consumption, but paralyzed when it comes to long-term saving and investing. We didn't get that way overnight, either. In the early 1980s, the savings rate was over 8 percent' today, it's 1 percent.

Privatization won't cure boomer paralysis

Paralysis now defines the core of America's new investor psychology. That conclusion became clear as I read the new Guardian Life Insurance Company/Harris Interactive study: "Beyond Behavior: Why Boomers Underfund Retirement."

Behavioral finance professor Frank Murtha summarized Guardian's study: "Baby boomers are in a state of financial paralysis. They don't know how much to save and don't understand some basic principles such as compound interest and adequate returns, so they are doing nothing!" That's 60 million boomers paralyzed!

And the Guardian study is just one of four that suddenly popped up from the financial industry in recent weeks:

* Putnam's "Portrait of the Recently Retired" study says retirees are "a money-worried, cash-strapped group, dependent on Social Security." Ouch! That reminds me of an earlier study which concluded that half of all retirees over 65 would be living in poverty but for their Social Security check.
* Allstate's "Retirement Reality Check:" They say only 20 percent of Americans are saving enough. And 56 percent identified themselves as "Survivors," wishful thinkers hoping they won't be voted off the island before landing in a cemetery.
* Merrill Lynch's study is a bit more optimistic; one-third in its survey was confident they're on track for a "comfortable" retirement. Apparently, the other two-thirds are facing rather uncomfortable retirements.

snip>

Privatization is the popular solution pushed by the 20 percent already on track. Wishful thinking. Sounds good, but unfortunately the "ownership society's" vague schemes won't help the average investor very much, just tighten the grip of the wealthy 10 percent who already control over 90 percent of America's assets.

Today 72 percent of us, average Americans, have portfolios worth less than $50,000. Already too little. So even if privatization works it will come too late for America's 76 million Boomers to catch up fast enough using Social Security accounts.

more...

[54anickel]

59. 2:09 update, buck breaks below 81

Dow 10,589.62 +4.50 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,149.97 +6.40 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,190.47 +0.14 (+0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.269% -0.128
30-yr Bond 4.935% -0.113
NYSE Volume 1,061,583,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,708,577,000

2:00PM : Buyers and sellers remain virtually deadlocked as the major indices hold their own around the unchanged mark... Investors have been content to cool their heels this afternoon, cognizant of the gains secured this week... Traders looking out into 2005 have realized that 4Q04 is shaping up very well, benefiting from rising global demand and what looks to be improved conditions for the technology market... 2005 may not offer the same backdrop, as inflation could become a problem, interest rates should be higher, and valuation multiples look to be less attractive...NYSE Adv/Dec 1949/1310, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1371/1641

1:25PM : Major indices initially sell off on the Madrid bombing report, but then stabilize around the flat line... Selling pressure intensified in the day's weakest groups, but the market's strongest areas - semiconductor, homebuilding, oil service - held onto their gains... That being said, the indices are still well off their highs and the recent development - combined with the gains already seen for the week - have dimmed the incentive to bid stocks higher... Volumes have been exceptionally strong for a Friday, although the November employment report has contributed to that...NYSE Adv/Dec 1894/1348, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1337/1642

1:00PM : More of the same as equities cling to slight gains... Basic material continues to trail the major averages as selling in aluminum remains intense... UBS downgraded Alcoa (AA 32.72 -0.72) and Alcan (AL 49.05 -0.37) to Neutral from Buy, citing higher expected input costs, its expectation for a potential emerging cyclical slowdown, and the stocks' recent outperformance... Separately, news has just hit the wires that a series of explosions were reported in Madrid after the Basque separatist group threatened to set off 5 bombs... The market has weakened some on the report, but not significantly... NYSE Adv/Dec 2018/1191, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1380/1572

12:30PM : The major indices continue to sport gains in what has become a steadier trade... Participation in the uptick has remained selective, with influential groups such as biotech, banking, and retail posting losses... The latter has traded lower off a number of analyst downgrades following the group's disappointing November same store results yesterday... Lazard, for one, has downgraded AEOS, GPS, LTD, SKS, and TGT to Hold from Buy, and BJ and COST to Sell from Hold...

Ann Taylor (ANN 20.37 -0.14) has suffered 3 downgrades today after taking the additional step of cutting its Q4 (Jan) outlook yesterday... The S&P 500 Index actually finished relatively flat yesterday, so it's not surprising to see some profit taking today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1975/1201, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1374/1553



Last trade 80.97 Change -0.98 (-1.20%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 80.96

Last tick: 2004-12-03 13:41:31 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

61. Gold futures rally to a fresh mid-1988 high near $458

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=1102100797-9e32d306-37067

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- February gold rose $5.50 to close at $457.80 an ounce in New York, a fresh June 1988 closing high. "Gold was struggling on either side of unchanged when news hit of the bombings in Spain," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. Traders "who sold the market short right after the pop off the unemployment numbers scrambled to cover in the last hour of trading," he said, and "a new high on the euro didn't hurt." This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com


More details here:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA019031F%2DCE30%2D444D%2DA5D5%2D99CA2A920FD2%7D&siteid=mktw

"Gold was struggling on either side of unchanged when news hit of the bombings in Spain," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

Traders "who sold the market short right after the pop off the unemployment numbers scrambled to cover in the last hour of trading," he said. And "a new high on the euro didn't hurt."

At least four explosions were reported in Madrid Friday after a Basque newspaper said it had received a telephoned bomb threat from the Basque separatist group ETA, according to news reports. Read more.

Also Friday, the U.S. Labor Department estimated that non-farm payrolls increased a less-than-expected 112,000 in November, while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4 percent. See Economic Report.

The news drove the euro to a record high against the dollar. See Currencies.

more...

[54anickel]

63. Behold Gold's ETF

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120304.html

Late last month I was researching the new gold exchange-traded fund in preparation for discussing its ramifications in the new December issue of our Zeal Intelligence newsletter. As I gathered information on the gold ETF, I was appalled to learn of its generally hostile reception within the gold-investor community.

When this new gold ETF went live a couple weeks ago I was ready to jump for joy in the streets! I have literally waited years for this day and truly believe the gold ETF will ultimately unleash massive new gold demand from traditional stock investors. The gold ETF will be absolutely crucial in broadening gold's investor participation so it can transition from Stage One to the vastly more profitable Stage Two.

Yet, after reading the Web forums and every commentary on the gold ETF I could find in recent weeks, one would think the AntiChrist of Gold has arrived. Gold investors are not only blaming the gold ETF for the poor HUI leverage, never mind the indisputable fact that the HUI was struggling for months before GLD launched, but even claiming it is a vast conspiracy to liberate capital from gold investors and use it to actively short gold, hanging us with our own ropes.

In order to address this troubling sinister interpretation of the gold ETF, I would like to journey back in time to early October 2002. Way back then gold had yet to break decisively above the $325 Maginot Line, and the ranks of contrarian gold investors were only a small fraction of today's. Back then we looked at the dazzling prospect of a gold ETF as a savior for gold investment demand, not a menace.

The following prose was penned by me and originally published on October 1st, 2002 in our 10/02 ZI letter for our subscribers. My goal in sharing these two-year old thoughts publicly for the first time is to attempt to rekindle excitement about the dawn of the gold ETF. Dear friends, years ago we anxiously awaited this very day with awe and wonder, like kids on Christmas Eve!

more...

[54anickel]

64. 3:09 numbers

Dow 10,585.12 0.00 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,149.22 +5.65 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,190.55 +0.22 (+0.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.273% -0.124
30-yr Bond 4.946% -0.102
NYSE Volume 1,249,148,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,983,450,000

2:30PM: Stocks show little vigor, having moved little in the past hour... The week ahead presents several notable events for the stock market, most notably analyst meetings from Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Intel (INTC) and Citigroup (C)... There will also be a number of mid-quarter updates in keeping with what Novellus (NVLS 29.63 +1.20) and Intel (INTC 24.14 +1.43) started this week... Texas Instruments (TXN), Seagate (STX), Altera (ALTR), and Maxtor (MXO) are all on tap and should provide plenty of opportunities for tech enthusiasts...NYSE Adv/Dec 2009/1271, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1431/1594


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2026 (59%) 1424 (44%)
Declines 1258 (36%) 1645 (51%)
Unchanged 144 (4%) 139 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 641 (54%) 1299 (67%)
Down Vol* 529 (44%) 603 (31%)
Unch. Vol* 15 (1%) 18 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 481 328
New Lo's 18 24


The US$:

Last trade 80.96 Change -0.99 (-1.21%)

Settle 81.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 80.94

Last tick: 2004-12-03 14:41:32 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[TrogL]

65. Loonie watch in horror

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285 USD
2004-11-19 Friday, November 19 0.838364 USD
2004-11-23 Tuesday, November 23 0.842815 USD
2004-11-24 Wednesday, November 24 0.846525 USD
2004-11-26 Friday, November 26 0.849257 USD
2004-11-29 Monday, November 29 0.844167 USD
2004-11-30 Tuesday, November 30 0.840195 USD
2004-12-01 Wednesday, December 1 0.843455 USD
2004-12-02 Thursday, December 2 0.840407 USD
2004-12-03 Friday, December 3 0.835003 USD





The loonie is crashing like a lead balloon against all currencies.

Here's some blather...

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down and breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8388. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at .8264 later this winter. If March renews this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .8595 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

...that says absolutely nothing.

Nothing on the news.

:shrug:

[54anickel]

69. Closin' time

Dow 10,592.21 +7.09 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,147.96 +4.39 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,191.17 +0.84 (+0.07%)
10-yr Bond 4.270% -0.127
30-yr Bond 4.942% -0.106
NYSE Volume 1,562,463,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,409,992,000

Close Dow +7.09 at 10592.21, S&P +0.84 at 1191.17, Nasdaq +4.39 at 2147.96: Speaking to a positive bias that has swept the market over the past month, stocks finished with slight gains today despite a softer than expected November employment report... A strong November ISM Services Index (61.3 versus expectations of 58.5), a fourth consecutive drop in the price of crude oil (to $42.54/bbl), and an encouraging mid-quarter update from Intel (INTC 24.03 +1.32) all helped keep the indices above the unchanged mark...
The world's largest semiconductor company raised its Q4 (Dec) revenues outlook to $9.3-9.5 bln from $8.6-9.2 bln and spoke to higher than average seasonal patterns in its quarter... This lit a fire under the semiconductor sector, and translated into gains for most of the tech group... Buying interest across the rest of the market, however, was rather tepid owing in part to the overhang of the jobs data... November nonfarm payrolls rose 112K and fell short of the consensus expectation of 200K...Hourly earnings also checked in at 0.1% (consensus of 0.3%) and the average work week was 33.7 hours (consensus of 33.8 hours)...

The unemployment rate was the only positive part of the report, dropping 0.1% to 5.4% (consensus of 5.4%), but that came as a result of the household survey which is known as being less accurate... The light numbers translated into gains for equities tied to interest rates (e.g. homebuilding, utility) - as the treasury market rallied wholeheartedly with the 10-year note finishing 37 ticks higher (yield of 4.26%) - but the rest of the blue chips traded with little conviction... Retail was a notable laggard, owing to a number of analyst downgrades following the weak set of November same store sales yesterday...

Finally, the dollar posted another day of large losses against the euro and yen following the nonfarm payrolls miss...SOX +1.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 2127/1205, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1480/1635

3:35PM : Indices continue to bounce around the flat line, showing little direction... Industry participation remains split, with technology, homebuilding, and utility showing solid gains and retail, health care, and telecom service exhibiting losses... As a result, it has been difficult for the indices to generate momentum in the afternoon trade... The bond market, conversely, has finished out a day with large gains across the yield curve.... The 10-year note, for one, has soared 38 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.26%...

The light November nonfarm payrolls figure has been an impediment, however, for the dollar - which has been trading noticeably lower against the euro and yen following the miss...NYSE Adv/Dec 2065/1231, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1450/1633

3:00PM : Still a basically unchanged market with not much to move the indices in the late afternoon... A number of traders have already left for the day and started their weekend, contributing to the inertia in the indices... Intel's (INTC 24.08 +1.37) upbeat mid-quarter quarter update continues to keep the tech sector in positive territory, but no clear catalyst has emerged for the blue chips... Crude oil has resumed its earlier downward move, now around $42.55/bbl, but investors remain a bit uneasy in light of today's employment data...

A nonfarm payrolls figure closer to the consensus estimate would have helped put concerns about the labor market to rest...NYSE Adv/Dec 2005/1267, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1436/1636


And the buck, achieving new lows - left all on it's own. Sad little buck-a-roo

Last trade 80.95 Change -0.99 (-1.21%)

Settle 80.98 Settle Time 15:37

Open 81.92 Previous Close 81.95

High 82.08 Low 80.92

Last tick: 2004-12-03 15:45:32 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Singing the song Song: Alone Again, Naturally

In a little while from now
If I’m not feeling any less sour
I promise myself to treat myself
And visit a nearby tower
And climbing to the top will throw myself off
In an effort to make it clear to who
Ever what it’s like when you’re shattered
Left standing in the lurch at a church
Where people saying: "My God, that’s tough
She's stood him up"
No point in us remaining
We may as well go home
As I did on my own
Alone again, naturally


To think that only yesterday
I was cheerful, bright and gay
Looking forward to well wouldn’t do
The role I was about to play
But as if to knock me down
Reality came around
And without so much, as a mere touch
Cut me into little pieces
Leaving me to doubt
Talk about God and His mercy
Or if He really does exist
Why did He desert me in my hour of need
I truly am indeed Alone again, naturally


Have a great weekend everyone. :hi: