C.I.A. Reports Offer Warnings on Iraq's Path -NYT

[Rose Siding]

WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 - A classified cable sent by the Central Intelligence Agency's station chief in Baghdad has warned that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and may not rebound any time soon, according to government officials.

The cable, sent late last month as the officer ended a yearlong tour, presented a bleak assessment on matters of politics, economics and security, the officials said. They said its basic conclusions had been echoed in briefings presented by a senior C.I.A. official who recently visited Iraq.
The officials described the two assessments as having been "mixed," saying that they did describe Iraq as having made important progress, particularly in terms of its political process, and credited Iraqis with being resilient.

But over all, the officials described the station chief's cable in particular as an unvarnished assessment of the difficulties ahead in Iraq. They said it warned that the security situation was likely to get worse, including more violence and sectarian clashes, unless there were marked improvements soon on the part of the Iraqi government, in terms of its ability to assert authority and to build the economy.

Together, the appraisals, which follow several other such warnings from officials in Washington and in the field, were much more pessimistic than the public picture being offered by the Bush administration before the elections scheduled for Iraq next month, the officials said..........

http://nytimes.com/2004/12/07/international/middleeast/07intell.html?hp&ex=1102395600&en=ec967d7aefac95a9&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[merwin]

1. And the kicker is...

Bush-co not going to listen to this warning either. Yay! We're winning!

[Rose Siding]

4. He may listen to this one- it absolves him

"...it warned that the security situation was likely to get worse, including more violence and sectarian clashes, unless there were marked improvements soon on the part of the Iraqi government"

[johnfunk]

11. Mission demolished!

- No real post-invasion planning.
- No substantial military coalition.
- No substantial humanitarian relief.
- No international justice for Saddam and his Neo-Nazi minions.
- No more credibility or respect for the USA.
- And the stupid, scared sheeple re-elect Kommisar Kodpiece.

Mission demolished.

[Supersedeas]

13. just waiting for his selectees to take over so these 'pessimistic' reports

will no longer be written.

[DemoTex]

2. So what?

Bring 'em on!

[neverforget]

3. lalalalala I can't hear you! Freedom's on the march!

:eyes:

[Old and In the Way]

5. Two years ago, at this time, there were plenty of threads discussing

the very mess we would create with an invasion of Iraq. Why is it we always seem to be right with our collective assessments, but there's no joy in our ability to say "we told you so". :-(

[merwin]

7. There's joy in saying "we told you so", but

there's no joy in the fact that being right caused so much death and destruction.

[teryang]

10. ?

"being right caused so much death and destruction?"

Doing wrong caused so much death and destruction.

[Just Me]

6. I thought we were "winning"!!! LIARS.

What's worse is, Rummy still steals authority over our "intelligence",...per the black-hole bill.

We, as Americans, really do NOT deserve what we are getting or what we get. We are being subject to "predators" who serve themselves.

It's a series of very unfortunate events,...for "democracy".

Let's just hope the "bad guys" go broke.

[MattNC]

8. Freedom is on the march n/t

[maddezmom]

9. interesting...looks like the CIA is still on the outs with *

The American ambassador to Iraq, John D. Negroponte, was said by the officials to have filed a written dissent, objecting to one finding as too harsh, on the ground that the United States had made more progress than was described in combating the Iraqi insurgency. But the top American military commander in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., also reviewed the cable and initially offered no objections, the officials said. One official said, however, that General Casey may have voiced objections in recent days.

The station chief's cable has been widely disseminated outside the C.I.A., and was initially described by a government official who read the document and who praised it as unusually candid. Other government officials who have read or been briefed on the document later described its contents. The officials refused to be identified by name or affiliation because of the delicacy of the issue. The station chief cannot be publicly identified because he continues to work undercover.

Asked about the cable, a White House spokesman, Sean McCormack, said he could not discuss intelligence matters. A C.I.A. spokesman would say only that he could not comment on any classified document.

It was not clear how the White House was responding to the station chief's cable. In recent months, some Republicans, including Senator John McCain of Arizona, have accused the agency of seeking to undermine President Bush by disclosing intelligence reports whose conclusions contradict the administration or its policies. But senior intelligence officials including John E. McLaughlin, the departing deputy director of central intelligence, have disputed those assertions. One government official said the new assessments might suggest that Porter J. Goss, the new director of central intelligence, was willing to listen to views different from those publicly expressed by the administration.

[Stinky The Clown]

12. And in a related story .........

...... US President George W. Bush is said to have had an angry telephone conversation with his newly selected CIA chief, former Florida congressman Porter Goss. Mr. Bush, it was reported by annoymous sources, told Goss that if the intelligence coming from Iraq did not improve Mr. Goss would have his ass filleted and served to the White House staff as an appetiser. Mr. Bush concluded the conversation by wishing Mr. Goss a "nice day".

[Megahurtz]

14. Wow, what would all of Bush's "faith based"

followers think after hearing a comment like that?

[Bouncy Ball]

15. I've always wished for some White House tapes

a la Nixon, so we can hear what bush et al REALLY say behind closed doors. Bet it's very eye-opening to some bush voters. Nothing they could say would shock me, though. I know they are evil personified.

[Fitz_G]

16. Corporate Intel Report

www.stratfor.com

Stratfor, a private firm that provides global intelligence for corporate interests, leveled smashing criticism of The Department of Homeland Security and the GWOT. In its Dec 1 Geopolitical diary, it stated

"Homeland defense was a profoundly flawed concept in the context of al Qaeda from the beginning. The United States cannot be defended against a global, sparse network of trained covert operatives. It is a target-rich environment -- meaning there are an awful lot of things that can be attacked -- surrounded by borders so long and porous that they cannot be sealed. That is certainly the case if you intend to ship things in and out of the country."

It went on to call Homeland security an "illusion" concocted for a frightened public following 9-11. On being able to defend the country against al Qaeda tactics, the report states

"the system can be penetrated. Anyone who asserts that it can't be penetrated is a liar, and anyone who demands an effective solution is a fool. It can't be done."

Such an assessment seems to fly in the face of a physical solution to the war on terror. Coupled with the DoD report that directly challenges the president's assertions that terrorists are terrorists "because they hate our freedom" and rather hate our policies, the solution becomes all too obvious.

The Birtish saw the continentals as a peasant class using barbaric hit and run tactics and the engagement of officers was declared downright unfair. Its not a terrible leap to suggest that if the word had existed in the 18th century, the colonial army easily could have been characterized as "terrorist." Like the British, who eventually capitulated and negotiated with "lesser mortals," we too will have to negotiate--else our pride invite a nuclear detonation to an American city.

As stated in the report's conclusion:

"In the end, however, homeland security is an illusion. Wars are not won defensively, and certainly this war can't be won that way. What defense there is consists of two parts. You can either negotiate a peace -- which depends on finding someone to negotiate with and determining if you are willing to pay the price. Or you can go out and attack and destroy the enemy, assuming you can find him and defeat him."

[Botany]

17. Bush should have listened to Daddy :dunce:

In Feb. of '03 I heard an ex CIA chief from Iraq say that getting into Baghdad would
be easy but getting out would be a nightmare. I think he said that in Iraq their were 105 different sides and they all hated each other.

I wish Wolfiwitz would be flown over there given an M-16 and sent out for a meet and
greet with the locals.

:nuke:

[psychopomp]

18. If the election is not held on time we risk Sistani's wrath

So far, he has held things in check among the majority population, holding out for a victory for his followers in the ballot box. If things unravel and the Shiites are unable to win by the ballot they may turn to the bullet.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

19. This would be why we are gutting the Agency again

Dictators don't like to hear bad news.