STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 21 December

[ozymandius]

Tuesday December 21, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 30 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 10 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 64 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1125
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 20, 2004

Dow... 10,661.60 +11.68 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,127.85 -7.35 (-0.34%)
S&P 500... 1,194.65 +0.43 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% -0.01 (-0.24%)
Gold future... 443.60 +0.70 (+0.16%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.72 Change +0.05 (+0.06%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH80900_2004-12-21_13-02-06_L21275100

FOREX-Dollar dozes above December's record low vs euro

LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The dollar traded within a cent of recent record lows against the euro on Tuesday as market players took advantage of a brief rise in the U.S. currency earlier to sell it amid broadly bearish sentiment.

With thinning volumes and little major economic data the market has little to trade on this week, and some investors had closed their short-dollar positions, pushing it higher after several weeks of record dollar lows against the euro due to concerns about the U.S. current account deficit.

But the dollar's recovery quickly lost steam.

"The market is assuming that the positioning adjustment process has already taken place," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London."This may drag some short-term players back into the market. However, I am not convinced we have seen the correction completed."

<snip>

A new Federal Reserve official, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, said on Monday in his first speech in the position that a weaker dollar shouldn't spark inflation and would help to boost exports and limit imports.

But he also said that if a slowdown in productivity growth prompted companies to raise prices, the Fed may need to be more aggressive in its credit tightening campaign.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100270/content.asp?menu=currencies&dia=21122004

THE CURRENCY REPORT

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXH5)

The DX opened lower at 81.85, as money managers continue to discount the latest bit of ‘short-covering’ and focus on the twin deficits and an administration that only ‘talks’ a strong dollar policy, with little to back it up. Commercials were liquidating DX positions, while hedge funds were liquidating EC positions and adding to their shorts. The DX continued lower to a daily Lo of 81.68, before recovering during the afternoon session and closing the day at 81.75, down 48 tics. Despite a better than expected report from the Conference Board showing November leading economic indicators rose +0.2% to 115.2, buyers were staying on the sidelines. We could see a test of the previous low of 81.05, unless a round of further ‘short-covering’ before ‘year-end’ gave us a boost higher. A lower open may find Support at 81.55 and 81.36, while an open above 81.88 should find Resistance at 82.07 and 82.40.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1103569176-9e32d306-37202

Richmond Fed´s Lacker sees strong growth in 2005

Richmond Fed's Lacker sees strong growth in 2005 CHARLOTTE, N.C., (AFX) -- The U.S. economy should be on a solid growth track in 2005 with low inflation, said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve

But even if inflation remains low, the Fed may have to raise interest rates more often than the market expects, Lacker told the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce on Monday. The market expects the fed funds rate to hit 3.25 to 3.5 percent next year, indicating a few expected pauses after this year's steady rate of hikes. "Even if inflation remains low and constant, as we would like, we may still need to move the Fed funds rate fairly often," Lacker said

The culprit for the higher rates is a possible slowdown in productivity growth, which he said may already be occurring. Slower productivity could lead to higher labor costs, resulting in upward pressure on inflation

<snip>

Lacker said consumer spending should continue to expand "at something near the strong pace we have been seeing." Worries about the low savings rate "should be taken with a grain of salt" because they omit capital gains on household assets. Lacker said business investment spending may slow in the first quarter as tax incentives expire, but should resume expanding at a robust pace shortly thereafter. The export sector should benefit from the recent fall in the dollar, Lacker said.

...more...

No Reports today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

(edited for double link)

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning UIA. I am trying to assess what this means for the dollar

given the traditional lull in holiday-week trading. Is the holding pattern an expression of the status-quo in recent weeks? might we see more serious revaluation of the dollar after the major players return in January?

As for the Fed tightening its lending practices (Lacker): this sounds a bit like a significant under-the-radar sentiment that may surprise some players when they come back from holiday. To date, I cannot recall when the Fed did not raise rates after tossing the idea into the open.

[UpInArms]

6. Ozy, I seem to recall reading

somewhere that they had cancelled one of the early 2005 Fed meetings - there will possibly be a slowdown in the movement of the Fed rate upward - there have been numerous hints to that effect.

I do believe (and this is just mho) that the dollar's downward trend will continue and that this mal-administration supports the fall of the dollar wholeheartedly.

The end of the year should be a whimper, but the new year doesn't seem to have much in the way of support for the US dollar.

On a more personal note, I am so glad that your employment situation is improving :D

:hi:

[ozymandius]

10. Thanks UIA!

:hi:

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

The WrapUp is on holiday break - to return January 3rd. Speaking of holidays: even abbreviated holiday activity has flooded me with errands and whatnot. The pile of activity includes doing more paperwork for my intended employer. One might think that I applied for employment at the CIA. The net effect is that I miss being more active on the thread.

The day starts early around here. So I will post as time allows.

missing you all,

Ozymandius :hi:

[UpInArms]

3. Exelon-PSEG deal includes job cuts

http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjournal/business/10465752.htm?1c

Exelon Corp. is acquiring Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. in a $12 billion stock deal that would create the nation's largest power generation company with customers in Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Roughly 1,400 jobs are expected to be cut over the next two years, part of the effort to achieve an estimated half-billion dollars in savings, said Thomas M. O'Flynn, PSEG's chief financial officer. The companies currently employ 28,500 people, and together, as Exelon Electric & Gas, they would have $79 billion in assets, with $27 billion in annual revenues and $3.2 billion in annual profit.

Shares of both companies finished the day higher, despite some concerns that regulatory approval might be an issue for the deal, which is expected to close in 12 to 15 months.

...more...

[ozymandius]

5. Chain Store Sales Rise in the Latest Week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales rose in the latest week, as consumers picked up the pace of holiday shopping, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales rose 1.6 percent in the week ended December 18, compared with a 1.2 percent increase in the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

Compared with the same week a year ago, sales growth recovered and increased to 3.5 percent after a 2.4 percent rise the preceding week.

"With just a few days left before Christmas, consumers continued to pick-up their holiday shopping and gave retailers another week of positive sales," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research."

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/nm/20041221/bs_nm/economy_retail_icsc_dc&sid=95609869

[ozymandius]

9. (Conversely) Report: Chain Store Sales Fall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales fell for the third consecutive week, as on-line shopping and gift cards continue to cut into weekly sales figures, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales in December to-date were down 0.7 percent compared with November. Sales rose by 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Dec. 18, said Redbook Research, an independent company.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/nm/20041221/bs_nm/economy_retail_redbook_dc&sid=95609869

[UpInArms]

7. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. A slightly positive bias continues to hold in the futures trade, which should translate into a higher open for the indices... The pharmaceutical sector, however, could witness added selling pressure after the FDA warned of increased heart attack risk from another painkiller - naproxen, which is sold by drug maker Bayer (BAY)... Separately, crude oil has held relatively steady around $45.76/bbl (-$0.02) as milder weather has somewhat eased worries about thin fuel supplies

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Still shaping up to be a slightly higher open for the cash market following strong Q4 (Nov) earnings results... Morgan Stanley reported earnings of $1.09 per share, $0.08 better than consensus estimates, while Bear Stearns posted earnings of $2.61 per share, beating analysts' expectations by $0.47... No major economic data will be released today

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures market versus fair value indicating a modestly higher open for the cash market ahead of quarterly results from Bear Stearns (BSC) and Morgan Stanley (MWD)... Also contributing to the positive bias has been an upgrade on Intel (INTC) to Overweight from Equal Weight at Lehman Brothers while American Express (AXP) was started with an Overweight rating at JP Morgan... Also, Interactive Corp (IACI) announced it will split off its Internet travel-related businesses as Expedia

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1610.25. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1586 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 1.00 pts. at 1604 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1198.78 and below the previous reaction high crossing at 1199.50. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1191.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1265 is the next upside target. The March S&P 500 Index was down 0.50 pts. at 1199.30 as of 5:54 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

8. 9:39 EST markets are open (another WHEE! morning?)

Dow 10,700.10 +38.50 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,141.83 +13.98 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,199.76 +5.11 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 41.85 -0.14 (-0.33%)

NYSE Volume 59,159,000
Nasdaq Volume 127,785,000

[ozymandius]

11. accompanying blather

US Stocks Open Up as Banks Boost Wall St

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened higher on Tuesday, helped by better-than-expected earnings from investment banks Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD - news) and Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (NYSE:BSC - news).

[ozymandius]

12. not much of a 10am bounce

10:09
Dow 10,689.83 +28.23 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,138.69 +10.84 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,198.52 +3.87 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% -0.002
NYSE Volume 198,533,000
Nasdaq Volume 349,418,000

[ozymandius]

13. blather update (9:54)

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks opened in the plus column Tuesday morning amid better-than-expected results from brokers Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns and an upgrade of chip giant Intel.

-cut-

Advancers were leading decliners by more than 2-to-1 margins in the early going on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.

Strategists believe stocks will continue their intermediate-term trend higher heading into year-end unless negative news surfaces.

"We're probably headed for a mixed to higher session as we await the economic news tomorrow and next week's window dressing," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and strategist at S.W. Bach.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041221/96cc2c52f1f824c743267a926961865e_1.html

Not surprising. Stocks close higher-than-expected every year at this time. Bonuses are awarded based on performance averages. It's like a group back-scratch.

[UpInArms]

14. Dollar stabilizes near record euro low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF9CA8BA8%2DFC3F%2D4CCD%2D8F15%2D4B7F8E59A446%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar was higher on Tuesday but remained within an eyelash of its record low against the euro.

<snip>

"Caught in the cross currents of divergent economic data, the euro dipped slightly at the beginning of the European session only to rally back to the highs of the day as European trade balance report indicated that the region's very important export sector may have regained its momentum in November," said Boris Schlossberg, analyst with Forex Capital Markets.

The region's trade surplus expanded to 5.5 billion euros, or nearly $7.4 billion, in October from September's 2.5 billion.

<snip>

Schlossberg said the dollar continues to find some support on speculation that intervening central banks could come to the buck's aid. The analyst stressed that the likelihood of intervention remains debatable.

<snip>

"Unless reaches the $1.40 barrier soon after the New Year, we doubt that European Central Bank will act," said Schlossberg.

...more...

[ozymandius]

15. UIA, I read that article you posted in LBN.

Retailers pray for last-minute splurge

The stage has been set for another last-minute showdown between Christmas shoppers and store owners, who are coming off a disappointing weekend.

Consumers might find a flurry of promotions and deeper discounts in the coming days, as retailers scramble to generate an extraordinary wave of last-minute shoppers.

Shoppers such as Maxanne Watt of Apopka are waiting.

"I've finished most of my shopping, and I haven't seen any discounts in the last few days that would make me spend more," said Watt, a licensed practical nurse.

<snip>

More than 12 million consumers haven't even started, the survey said. Retailers are gearing up for the onslaught -- from consumer-electronics and home-improvement chains to discounters and department stores -- with many stores planning extended hours this week.

Honestly, if places like Dollar General and other discounters are suffering, what are the chances that mainstream retailers will have a happy new year?

[UpInArms]

17. Ozy, the financial insecurity

of the majority of those residing within the US is growing each month - I don't believe the rising market numbers are instilling confidence or that it affects the average person - it just works as a propaganda tool for so long and then when reality sets in ....

Personal anecdote time:

We (my hubby and I) make custom tile for installations for people - we had an order that was cancelled last week because something unforeseen occurred in someone's world - they are hoping to have a better outlook in January - will it happen? My gut says "no".

Being a niche market, we have been able to survive (barely), but it affects our spending abilities when shit happens to everyone else.

[JNelson6563]

16. Update 10:59 and homegrown blather

Dow 10,689.97 +28.37 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,134.76 +6.91 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,197.10 +2.45 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.201% +0.002

On the retail sector, I'm here to tell ya it looks grim folks. Years ago, when our main mall opened the demographic research showed a draw of an 80 mile radius. Since then much more has been built within sight of that mall (i.e. Wal-Mart, Home Despot, Borders etc.) so that draw has increased, I'd wager big. Anyhow, considering I live in the heart of the hub, I have a good view of it all. While things are busy enough to cause traffic snarls it ain't what it usually is. No parking on the grass, no waiting in long lines, I mean it's pretty damn sad. The other day I shopped at Hot Topic, Marshal Fields and Barnes&Noble. Each place I just walked up to the counter and paid for my stuff. N'ary a moment's wait.

If a commerce center with a draw as broad as ours (in a predominantly RED area) is doing so poorly it makes sense that this would be a good bellweather. It has always proven to be so in the 10+ years I lived here.

Wait till these numbers hit! Woo-boy, that's going to be ugly.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

18. (almost) High Noon Update

Dow 10,717.02 +55.42 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,138.50 +10.65 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,199.79 +5.14 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.187% -0.012

It was a cold winter's day and everything on Wall Street was shiney and bright. Not a worry or fear anywhere in sight. The stockings were hung on the Big Brokers' chimnies with care, in hopes that Social Security Privatization soon would be there.

"Have no worries or cares!" cried the chimp from his perch. "You can trust it's not you who'll be left in the lurch!"

;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

19. 12:08 EST numbers and blather (YEEHAW!)

Dow 10,728.92 +67.32 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,140.83 +12.98 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,200.48 +5.83 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.183 -0.16 (-0.38%)

NYSE Volume 604,854,000
Nasdaq Volume 922,524,000

12:00PM: Major indices opened on a higher note and continue to hold solid gains following strong earnings reports and encouraging analyst comments... Better than expected Q4 (Nov) earnings from Bear Stearns (BSC 102.30 -2.20) and Morgan Stanley (MWD 53.42 -0.23), which beat street expectations by $0.47 and $0.08, respectively, provided an initial spark of broad-based buying interest that kept hopes of a Santa Claus rally intact following yesterday's mixed outing...

Positive analyst remarks on a few Dow components, such as Lehman's upgrade on Intel (INTC 23.18 +0.48) to Overweight from Equal Weight and JP Morgan's initiation of coverage on American Express (AXP 56.19 +0.34) with an Overweight rating, have also lent support for the overall bullish bias... Showing strength midday has been Internet on the heels of Interactive Corp's (IACI 27.89 +2.01) announcement that it will spin off Expedia to shareholders... Health care, despite another FDA warning of increased heart attack risk from a painkiller, this time naproxen (Aleve), has shown resilience and held steady in positive territory... Also trading higher have been software, transportation, materials, financial, retail, and utility...

Showing modest weakness has been casino, aerospace/defense and wireless service while semiconductor and homebuilding continue to bounce in and out of negative territory... Meanwhile, crude oil ($45.77/bbl -$0.01) has had little impact on trading so far as the commdity continues to hover around the unchanged mark while quite trade in treasuries has left the 10-year note up 1 tick to yield 4.17%...

Guess no one is holding Delphi's debt :eyes:

11:57am 12/21/04 S&P CUTS DELPHI CREDIT TO 'BB+', OR 'JUNK' STATUS

[JNelson6563]

20. 2:13 update and things couldn't be better!

Dow 10,736.16 +74.56 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,146.70 +18.85 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 1,202.80 +8.15 (+0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.174% -0.025

Where are my shades? The future is so bright it's blinding me.


B-)

Julie

[MARALE]

21. Merry Xmas

Me thinks Wall Street has gotten too much spiked egg-nog!

:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

[daleo]

22. Markets seem unaffected by Mosul attack

I don't know, that just seems odd.

[girl gone mad]

23. There are a lot of strange things going on w/r/t the markets.

Markets are up, but so are many hedge funds. Futures are up, but insider selling is still at record levels.

Irrational exuberance is here, but for how long?

[daleo]

25. I suppose pre-Christmas might be anomalous too n/t

[UpInArms]

24. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,759.43 +97.83 (+0.92%)
Nasdaq 2,150.91 +23.06 (+1.08%)
S&P 500 1,205.43 +10.78 (+0.90%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168 -0.31 (-0.74%)

NYSE Volume 1,482,960,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,000,267,000

Close: All the major indices opened higher and gained enough momentum into the close to finish at new 52-week highs... Contributing to an overall bullish bias that pushed the Dow to a 3 1/2-year high and virtually every sector higher were strong corporate earnings and positive analyst remarks following weeks of increased M&A activity and strong fund inflows... Early buying interest began in financials (+1.1%) following stronger than expected Q4 (Nov) results from Bear Stearns (BSC 102.72 -1.78) and Morgan Stanley (MWD 54.66 +1.01)...

The latter beat analysts' expectations by $0.08 with earnings of $1.09 per share while BSC handily beat forecasts with earnings of $2.61 per share... JP Morgan initiating coverage of Dow component American Express (AXP 56.49 +0.64) with an Overweight rating also lent buying support...With business tracking favorably over the near term for Intel (INTC 23.49 +0.79), an upgrade on the chip giant to Overweight from Equal Weight from Lehman Brothers helped give technology a broad-based boost as semiconductor (+1.2%), software (+1.8%), disk drive (+1.5%) and hardware (+0.6%) also gained ground...

Internet (+1.4%) also surged following Interactive Corp's (IACI 27.41 +1.53) announcement that it will spin off its online travel business Expedia to shareholders... Health care also showed strength despite another FDA warning of increased heart attack risk from a painkiller... This time around it was naproxen, sold by Bayer (BAY 33.73 +0.12) as Aleve, but pharmaceutical stocks, which have been volatile for months over related life-threatening results, shrugged off the latest drug disappointment... With regards to weakness, there was not a single S&P sector that lost more than 1%...


Must have been all that good news today :eyes:

[54anickel]

26. ZOWIE!! Santa HAS Arrived!!! Strong earnings (with much thanks

to a lower buck would be my bet) positive analyst remarks (when aren't they positive), lotsa M&A activity, and plenty of new money flowing in for the new year fleecing!

It don't get much better than this! B-)