STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 23 December

[ozymandius]

Thursday December 23, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 28 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 12 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 66 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1127
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 22, 2004

Dow... 10,815.89 +56.46 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq... 2,157.03 +6.12 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,209.57 +4.12 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% +0.03 (+0.79%)
Gold future... 441.40 -1.50 (-0.34%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. Stocks Seen Flat at Open; Data Eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are expected to open little changed on Thursday ahead of the long Christmas weekend, but a raft of economic data and the latest fall in oil prices could move the market.

On Wednesday, Wall Street's "Santa rally" pushed the S&P 500 Index to its highest close since August 2001, while the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average ended at a 3-1/2-year high for the second consecutive day.

In a seasonal bounce, U.S. stocks typically rally during the last five days of the year and the first two in January -- the so-called "Santa rally."

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[ozymandius]

2. Strong early signals for North American markets before holiday break

from the Canadian press

TORONTO (CP) - Ahead of the last full day of trading before the Christmas break, early indicators Thursday suggested a positive start for North American stock markets that have reached multi-year highs.

-cut-

On Thursday, some U.S. financial markets, including government bond trading, will close early - though stock markets will close at their regular time, 4 p.m. ET.

U.S. financial markets will be closed Friday. Canadian stock markets will shut down at 1 p.m. ET on Friday and will also be closed next Monday and Tuesday.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1821&ncid=1196&e=6&u=/cpress/20041223/ca_pr_on_bu/world_markets

[ozymandius]

3. 2005: Gray, With Mild Returns

With 2005 fast approaching, Wall Street analysts are once again gazing into their crystal balls. What they see is a dull but mildly positive year for stocks.

Although strategists are calling for higher interest rates and a weaker pace of earnings growth next year, they believe stocks will inch up as the economy continues to grow at a respectable pace.

The median forecast among the major brokerages is for a 4% increase in the S&P 500, although estimates range from a decline of 4.6% to a gain of 10%.

One of last year's most accurate prognosticators, Tom McManus of Banc of America, is actually among the more bearish pundits this year, saying the market could remain flat or fall slightly over the next 12 months.

more...

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10200478.html

[ozymandius]

4. Sleigh-full of numbers

Investors waiting to see if last-minute rush of economic reports turns 'Ho Ho Ho' into 'Oh Oh Oh'.

-cut-

Investors will get the latest readings on durable goods orders, personal spending and income, and initial jobless claims -- all about an hour before the opening bell. To follow are reports on new home sales and consumer confidence due within a half hour of the market open.

-cut-

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast that durable goods orders rose 0.7 percent in November, following a 1.1 percent decline in October.

Personal income is forecast to be up 0.2 percent in November, slower than the 0.6 percent gain in October, while spending by consumers, a key driver of economic activity, is seen slowing to a 0.3 percent gain from the 0.7 percent rise in October.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims are seen rising to 335,000 for last week from 317,000 the prior week.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/23/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

More after the open:

-University of Michigan consumer confidence revised report
-new home sales

[54anickel]

5. Good morning Ozy and all.

Sorry to have been away so much of the time this week. It's been a busy week here for me. Started helping with a few cleaning jobs, along with trying to get my place ready for the in-laws coming for dinner tomorrow night.

Whew, I'm outta shape! Too many years of sitting at the R&D bench. That job only entailed brain burning and some heavy lifting and long hours. Maybe I can shed a few extra pounds.

[ozymandius]

7. g'bye 54anickel.

Good to see you here after missing your enthusiasm this week. Please have a wonderful weekend!

Ozy

[ozymandius]

6. gotta run

Much has to be done as we prepare for a quiet weekend with family. Have a great day folks!

And I hope that this season brings you warm contemplation and quality time with your loved ones.

Ozymandius :hi:

[54anickel]

8. Bye Ozy - Have a great weekend and I hope you enjoy the holidays!

Best wishes on finalizing that job deal - what a great Christmas gift!

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.63 Change -0.30 (-0.37%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 81.93

High 81.98 Low 81.48

Last tick: 2004-12-23 08:54:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar extends drop after data, hits all-time euro low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38344.364781169-830411526&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar extended its declines briefly against the euro and the Japanese yen in the wake of release of a spate of U.S. economic data Thursday morning. It had since moved back to pre-report levels. A trio of reports showed only mixed results for U.S. economic growth, with focus on the durable goods orders drop when transportation orders were excluded. The euro was last at $1.3481 compared to $1.3461 before the reports. It traded to an all-time high above $1.3480. The common currency is up 0.7 percent against its U.S. counterpart compared to late U.S. trade Wednesday. The dollar fell to 103.75 yen vs. 103.90 yen and is down 0.4 percent on the day.

[54anickel]

16. Dollar Declines on Speculation Bush Policy Won't Change in 2005

Heh-heh, looks like they've got his number! It's hard work negotiating with yourself.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=arlfro51nrEo&refer=us

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro, nearing a record, and dropped versus the yen on speculation President George W. Bush's administration won't act to stem the U.S. currency's decline into next year.

Moves were exaggerated as financial markets begin a series of year-end holidays. Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a Dec. 3 interview he has ``a deep respect for the way markets perform,'' suggesting he won't accede to European and Asian officials' calls for the U.S. to halt the dollar's slide.

``The U.S. government is happy to see the dollar fall,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist in London at ABN Amro Holding NV. ``Exports become more competitive and it creates jobs,'' he said. ``The big surge in the euro versus the dollar will continue into next year.''

Against the euro, the dollar declined to $1.3453 at 10:47 a.m. in London, from $1.3390 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency dealing system EBS. It also fell to 103.91 yen, from 104.23. The dollar is down 6.4 percent against the euro and 3.2 percent versus the yen this year, heading for the third straight annual drop against both.

ABN Amro forecasts the dollar will fall to 90 yen, a level not seen since 1995, and to a record $1.43 per euro by the end of next year. It reached its current record of $1.3470 on Dec. 7.

more...

[UpInArms]

17. Maybe I'm obtuse, but where are the jobs that this is

supposed to create?

the third straight annual drop against both

[UpInArms]

19. Dollar hits record euro low, bounces

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B862C872F%2DF961%2D4CA7%2DBA20%2DA6CAEBB3875B%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar probed a record low against the euro Thursday as ongoing concerns for U.S. deficits were compounded by disappointing U.S. economic data.

The dollar briefly extended its declines against the euro and the yen after a spate of U.S. economic data, currency traders said.

The greenback has since moved back to pre-report levels, but remained lower against these key rivals on the day. A trio of reports showed mixed results for U.S. economic growth, with the focus on a decline in durable goods orders outside the volatile category of transportation orders.

The euro was last at $1.3464. It traded to an all-time high of $1.3482 earlier. The common currency is up 0.6 percent against its U.S. counterpart compared with late U.S. trade Wednesday.

The dollar fell to 103.93 yen, down 0.2 percent on the day.

"The trading environment is growing thinner by the day, which exacerbates small moves in the dollar," said Charmaine Buskas, currency analyst with Economy.com.

<snip>

The greenback continues to focus on the sustainability of U.S. trade and budget deficits.

The currency market also remains convinced the Bush administration will do little to stand in the way of a depreciating U.S. currency, even as officials pledge their support for a "strong" dollar.

<snip>

But the report's other details weren't as rosy.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.8 percent in November after falling 1.3 percent in the prior month.

Overall orders fell a revised 0.9 percent in October, a steeper decline than the 0.4 percent drop initially reported. See Economic Report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Today's Reports

Dec 23 8:30 AM
Durable Orders Nov
report 1.6%
briefing.com 1.0%
market 0.7%
last report -0.9%
revised from -1.1%

Dec 23 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 12/18
report 333K
briefing.com 330K
market 335K
last report 316K
revised from 317K

Dec 23 8:30 AM
Personal Income Nov
report 0.3
briefing.com 0.3%
market 0.2%
last report 0.6%
revised -

Dec 23 8:30 AM
Personal Spending Nov
report 0.2%
briefing.com 0.3%
market 0.3%
last report 0.8%
revised from 0.7%

Dec 23 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Dec
report -
briefing.com 95.7
market 95.7
last report 95.7
revised -

Dec 23 10:00 AM
New Home Sales Nov
report -
briefing.com 1190K
market 1200K
last report 1226K
revised -

[UpInArms]

15. 8:30 EST report details

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38344.3552710185-830411203&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

U.S. Nov. income outpaces spending By Corbett B. Daly
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2 percent in November, outpaced slightly by a 0.3 percent rise in personal income, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Personal savings more than doubled to $22.2 billion in November from $10.2 billion in the prior month. The savings rate rose to 0.3 percent in the month from 0.1 percent in October. Disposable personal income rose 0.3 percent in October, down from 0.6 percent in October. Real disposable income, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38344.3557109954-830411229&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

U.S. Nov. durable goods up 1.6% By Corbett B. Daly
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- New orders for U.S. made durable goods rose 1.6 percent in November, the largest increase since July, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Total orders fell a revised 0.9 percent in October, a steeper decline than the 0.4 percent drop initially reported. The gain was led by a rise in orders for transportation goods as civilian aircraft rose a whopping 64.2 percent in the month. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.8 percent in November after falling 1.3 percent in the prior month. Excluding defense, new orders 3.7 percent in the month after declining 2 percent in October.

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. OCT. DURABLE GOODS REVISED DOWN 0.9%

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. NOV. DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION DOWN 0.8%

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. NOV. DURABLES EX-DEFENSE UP 3.7%

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. NOV. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.3%

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 9,000 TO 2.72 MLN

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. NOV. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.2%

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,250 TO 340,000

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. NOV. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 1.6%

8:30am 12/23/04 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 17,000 TO 333,000

[54anickel]

12. Will Japan Go Nuclear?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

"In order to prepare for the defense of Japan, the SDF has to be not only involved in its own efforts, but also in international efforts." – Akihiko Tanaka, defense expert at Tokyo University

“There has been a remarkable growth of pro-Taiwan sentiment in Japan. There is not one pro-China figure in the Koizumi Cabinet.” – Phil Deans, director of the Contemporary China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London


In his now infamous “Axis of Evil” speech, President Bush explicitly warned that North Korea and Iran, not just Iraq, threatened the world because of the nuclear weapons they were developing. With the United States increasingly preoccupied by the war in Iraq, these other two “members” of this so-called Axis surged ahead with plans to advance their respective nuclear weapons programs. Both reasonably concluded that what distinguished their situations from Iraq was that Iraq proved not to have nuclear weapons. North Korea and Iran may indeed have already obtained the technology required to manufacture nukes, thereby creating a far more powerful deterrent against a pre-emptive strike by the U.S. military.

Over the past couple of years both Iran and North Korea have been playing a game of chess with America -- and if they have not exactly won, they have advanced by several moves. In the case of Iran, Tehran’s strategy of playing off Europe against the U.S. appears to have been largely successful, with even Britain having publicly gone out of its way to disparage the notion of a pre-emptive military strike. There is mounting evidence that Iran’s nuclear program has been well hidden and broadly dispersed across the country, including in crowded cities. Confronted with intelligence evidence, Iran admitted to inspectors last year that it had hidden critical aspects of its civilian program for 18 years, and even today Pentagon analysts raise questions as to whether all of its nuclear-related sites are known. Iran has also sought to exploit the growing chill in Russo-American diplomatic relations. In mid-December of 2004, it said Moscow would have to show “readiness” to expand nuclear ties with Tehran if it wanted to secure a solid share of Iran’s atomic market in face of growing competition from Europe.

Because it lost time and squandered resources, the United States now has no good options for dealing Iran. What about North Korea?

Here too, the U.S. likely has no good options in a military sense, but there are growing indications that Washington will exploit its longstanding ties with Tokyo as a means of containing Kim Jong Il’s regime. While the rest of the Asia/Pacific region is increasingly turning to Beijing as its new economic and political locus, Japan appears to have made the decision to throw in its lot completely with Washington. Economically, the Bank of Japan has systematically destroyed its balance sheet through its longstanding (and ultimately futile) dollar support operations to accommodate the most egregious excesses in U.S. economic policy-making. But as Japan’s Iraq deployment indicates, this cooperation is now manifesting itself to a greater degree in the military sphere.

Although not yet explicitly stated, the logical culmination of these ties would be to encourage Japan to go nuclear at some stage in the future. From Washington’s perspective, this would also have the added advantage of curbing China’s growing influence in the Asia/Pacific region.

more...

[UpInArms]

13. Weekly U.S. jobless claims rebound

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B51E3C6B0%2D9D82%2D4915%2DBABA%2D20C0E1C6ABAF%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rebounded after chalking up the largest weekly decline seen in three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The number of initial claims filed in the week ended Dec. 18 rose 17,000, reaching 333,000.

The increase was in line with the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists.

Claims in the previous week were revised to a decrease of 45,000 to 316,000, compared with a fall of 43,000 to 317,000 that was initially estimated. This was the largest decline in claims since December 2001.

Meanwhile, the four-week average of initial claims rose to 340,000, up by 2,250.

The four-week average is considered a better gauge of the underlying trend in employment because it smoothes out distortions caused by holidays and other one-time factors.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. 9:37 EST markets are open and pre-opening blather

Dow 10,836.82 +20.93 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,157.12 +0.09 (+0.00%)
S&P 500 1,211.17 +1.60 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 42.12 +0.11 (+0.26%)

NYSE Volume 37,379,000
Nasdaq Volume 85,673,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market still indicating a relatively flat to mixed open for the indices, despite this morning's trio of rather upbeat economic data, as investors find little else in the way of market-moving information to digest... In other news, reports suggest that state-owned Russian oil company Rosneft was behind last weekend's OAO Yukos acquisition while Novartis (NVS) gets FDA approval to market Enablex

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures indications hold relatively steady, still suggesting a slightly flat to mixed open for equities, following a batch of respectable economic data... The Commerce Dept just released a November Durable Orders reading of +1.6% (consensus +0.7%) as well as November Personal Income and Spending figures of +0.3% and +0.2%, versus expectations of +0.2% and +0.3%, respectively... Weekly jobless claims increase 17K to 333K (consensus 335K)

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures market suggesting a flat to mixed open for the cash market as investors await a slew of economic releases to dictate early market action... At 8:30 ET, November Personal Income (consensus +0.2%) and Spending (consensus +0.3%) will be released alongside November Durable Orders (consensus +0.7%) and weekly jobless claims (consensus 335K)... There are no earnings reports of note out this morning

[UpInArms]

18. UMich's December sentiment rises to 97.1

Are they drinking the koolaid?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38344.4095724884-830413484&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer sentiment improved in late December, according to media reports Thursday of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index improved to 97.1 in late December from 95.7 earlier in the month. The increase was unexpectedly strong. Economists had been expecting the index to remain steady to 95.7 in late December. The index stands well above the 92.8 level in November.

9:47am 12/23/04 UMICH DEC. CONSUMER SENTIMENT REVISED TO 97.1 VS 95.7

9:48am 12/23/04 UMICH'S DECEMBER SENTIMENT ABOVE 92.8 IN NOVEMBER

[54anickel]

29. I want some of whatever it is they're taking! Happy, happy stuff...n/t

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. Nov. new home sales down 12% to 1.125 mln units

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BECD38309-04F3-4965-8B9E-A6EADFADEDDF%7D&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Sales of new housing units in the United States fell sharply in November after October's increase was revised higher, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The number of new homes sold in November fell 12 percent to 1.125 million units after sales rose 4.2 percent in October. The department originally estimated sales rose 0.2 percent in the month. Economists had been expecting sales of about 1.2 million units, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

[UpInArms]

21. 10:13 numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,842.26 +26.37 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,158.67 +1.64 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,211.11 +1.54 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214 +0.13 (+0.31%)

NYSE Volume 167,867,000
Nasdaq Volume 297,421,000

10:00AM: Market holding steady at improved levels following the latest piece of economic data... The University of Michigan has released an unexpectedly strong revised Consumer Sentiment Index reading of 97.1 for December (consensus was 95.7) versus a reading of 92.8 for November... In other economic news, November personal income (+0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%) and spending (+0.2% versus consensus of +0.3%) remain consistent with current market forecasts of a 4% growth rate for Q4 real GDP...

Also, weekly jobless claims of 333K (consensus 335) coming in for the second straight week under 335K still suggests that employment conditions remain consistent with average monthly gains of 200K in non-far payrolls... NYSE Adv/Dec 1432/995, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1282/1098

9:40AM: As futures trade indicated, stocks open relatively flat and remain mixed in the early going... Durable goods rebounded in November rising by 1.6%, better than the 0.7% economists expected for the month and a revised 0.9% decline in October... Excluding an 8.2% surge in transportation (commercial aircraft 64%), which provided the bulk of the power behind the stronger than expected data, new orders came in at -0.8%...

Meanwhile, orders, along with business investment, remain a boost to GDP; but Briefing.com believes the impact may be less in 2005 than it was in 2004, as investment is now showing signs of a slight slowdown... Consumer Sentiment Index data for December (consensus 95.7) is expected any minute while a November New Home Sales reading (consensus 1200K) is expected to hit the wires at 10:00 ET...

Last trade 81.52 Change -0.41 (-0.50%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 81.93

High 81.98 Low 81.48

[UpInArms]

22. Euro trades as high as $1.35

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38344.4462215278-830415026&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. deficit concerns and bets U.S. officials won't yet stop the dollar's drop continued to drive the U.S. currency to fresh all-time lows against the euro Thursday. The common currency was recently worth as much as $1.35.

10:38am 12/23/04 EURO HITS FRESH HIGH AT $1.3501

[UpInArms]

23. Economy ending year on a high note (Comedy Routine?)

http://springfield.news-leader.com/business/today/1223-Economyend-257576.html

Washington — The economy headed into the end of the year with good momentum, expanding at an annual rate of 4 percent in the third quarter, a faster clip than previously thought.

The new reading on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday by the Commerce Department, exceeded the previous estimate of a 3.9 percent growth rate for the July-to-September quarter. It marked the best showing since the opening quarter of this year and was up from a 3.3 percent pace in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the broadest barometer of the country's economic health.

Brisk spending by consumers and businesses helped the economy expand nicely in the third quarter. The slight upward revision to GDP in the third quarter mostly reflected the fact that the trade deficit was less of a drag on the economy than previously forecast.

On Wall Street, the report helped lift the Dow Jones industrials to a new, 3-year high. The Dow rose 56.46 to close at 10,815.89.

...more...

[MARALE]

24. Blockbuster cuts price of online rentals

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/10482935.htm?1c

snip>
Blockbuster is lowering its online subscription for unlimited rentals by $2.50 to $14.99 a month. The price cut is effective immediately, and good through at least January 2006, according to the Dallas company.

Netflix's online subscription costs $17.99 a month for three rentals at a time.

``We have no plans to change our price,'' Netflix Chief Executive Reed Hastings said. ``Our advantage is focus. We do online movie rental better than anyone on the planet.''

<snip>
Both companies have been aggressively cutting prices -- a strategy investors are not embracing.

Shares of Blockbuster slipped 27 cents, or 3 percent, to $9.40 Wednesday. Shares of Netflix fell 90 cents, or 7 percent, to $11.70.

Netflix shares also plunged in October on news that it would cut its subscription price from $21.99 a month to $17.99.
<snip

[UpInArms]

25. 2:03 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,838.58 +22.69 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,162.45 +5.42 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,211.46 +1.89 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218 +0.17 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 659,703,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,016,942,000

1:30PM: Stocks continue to trade sideways as bonds close near their lows... Action in treasuries was largely dependant on position squaring heading into the holiday weekend as traders who had yet to close their books have now done so... And, although a strong November durables reading added some early volatility, the bulk of today's economic data was unable to add much else, as the 10-year note closed down 5 ticks yielding 4.21%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1789/1376, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1639/1388

1:00PM: Little changed since the last update as leadership from a number of blue chips keeps the indices in positive territory... Pfizer (PFE 26.43 +0.48) remains the biggest winner on the Dow, with rival Merck (MRK 32.48 +0.26) also extending yesterday's gains, touching 2 1/2 month highs... 3M (MMM 82.61 +1.10) has also shown strength, after Goldman Sachs maintained an Outperform rating and said 3M remained its best idea, while Citigroup (C 48.80 +0.49), Honeywell (HON 35.96 +0.33) and American International Group (AIG 66.39 +0.45) have also seen intra-day gains of more than 1%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1807/1316, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1633/1332

12:30PM: More of the same as the market continues to show strong follow through after two days of gains... Falling even further, however, has been the dollar, as traders believe the U.S. government's hands-off policy on intervention will continue to pressure the currency... A rise overnight in the euro has helped push the greenback to another record low (1.3487)... Even though currency trading today, as expected, has been light and less liquid, with the Japanese markets closed for holiday, the dollar remains near recent lows against the yen (103.73) as well...

Last trade 81.46 Change -0.47 (-0.57%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 81.93

High 81.98 Low 81.39

[54anickel]

26. China Emerging as U.S. Rival for Canada's Oil

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/23/business/worldbusiness/23canada.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1103829040-gm+t/bhIRqyLZCfL4T5WPA

CALGARY, Alberta, Dec. 21 - China's thirst for oil has brought it to the doorstep of the United States.

Chinese energy companies are on the verge of striking ambitious deals in Canada in efforts to win access to some of the most prized oil reserves in North America.

The deals may create unease for the first time since the 1970's in the traditionally smooth energy relationship between the United States and Canada.

Canada, the largest source of imported oil for the United States, has historically sent almost all its exports of oil south by pipeline to help quench America's thirst for energy. But that arrangement may be about to change as China, which has surpassed Japan as the second-largest market for oil, flexes its muscle in attempts to secure oil, even in places like the cold boreal forests of northern Alberta, where the oil has to be sucked out of the sticky, sandy soil.

"The China outlet would change our dynamic," said Murray Smith, a former Alberta energy minister who was appointed this month to be the province's representative in Washington, a new position. Mr. Smith said he estimated that Canada could eventually export as many as one million barrels a day to China out of potential exports of more than three million barrels a day.

"Our main link would still be with the U.S. but this would give us multiple markets and competition for a prized resource," Mr. Smith said. Delegations of senior executives from China's largest oil companies have been making frequent appearances in recent weeks here in Calgary, Canada's bustling energy capital, for talks on ventures that would send oil extracted from the oil sands in the northern reaches of the energy-rich province of Alberta to new ports in western Canada and onward by tanker to China.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Fannie Execs' Severance Pay Probed - WSJ

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041223/financial_fanniemae_1.html

snip>

The largest U.S. provider of housing finance announced earlier this week that Chief Executive Franklin Raines was retiring and Chief Financial Officer Timothy Howard was resigning amid scrutiny of Fannie Mae's accounting that is prompting a restatement of results.

The company's regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or Ofheo, is looking at the compensation, people familiar with the investigation told the paper, which said Raines received $10.6 million in annual bonuses and $25.7 million in long-term incentive plan payouts from 2001 through 2003.

During those years, top Fannie Mae executives were paid multimillion-dollar bonuses which were partly dependent on whether they met financial targets, the paper said.

Ofheo may try to have it declared that Raines and Howard were formally terminated for cause, which could withhold all severance payments or spur efforts to recover payouts, the Journal said.

more...

[54anickel]

28. The Bottom Line on Overhauling Social Security

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/23/business/23scene.html

snip>

The plan is disheartening. Based on an analysis done by the Social Security Administration and the Congressional Budget Office, it will result in significant benefit reductions from the levels promised under the present system.

But is this still better than the present system, which as baby boomers retire may not be able to meet all its future promises? Here is the heart of the matter. Even if benefits must be reduced under the current system, many retirees will still do better than they would in a privatized system. Or so an analysis of Reform Model 2 suggests.

The Bush privatization plan coming into view would work as follows. Workers now pay to Social Security 6.25 percent of their wages up to $87,900, matched equally by their employer. Workers would be allowed to divert four percentage points, up to a maximum of $1,000 a year, to private investments in stocks and bonds. The investment accounts would be limited to highly diversified mutual funds, or even index funds, and the transactions costs would be kept to a minimal 0.3 percent.

So far so good.

But to make sure there is enough incoming payroll tax to support promised benefits, Social Security benefits guaranteed under the present system would be cut slightly for each dollar the individual worker diverts to his or her private accounts. More important, future benefits would also be cut by indexing them to the rise in consumer prices rather than, as is now done, to rising wages, which tend, over time, to outpace inflation by a significant margin.

Indexing to prices may look sensible to Americans, but the reduction in future benefits from the present plan is likely to be severe. By 2075, under the most commonly accepted economic assumptions, indexing benefits to prices rather than wages would mean that benefits would be nearly 50 percent lower than under the current system. Many privatization plans call for such an adjustment.

Will the magic of private investment accounts make up for the reductions? The answer is no....

more...

[54anickel]

30. U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.2% in Nov.; Incomes Up

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ava85PWtEfVM&refer=us

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Spending by U.S. consumers rose in November, a fifth straight increase, suggesting shoppers will boost economic growth through this quarter.

The 0.2 percent gain in personal expenditures on goods and services followed a 0.8 percent increase in October that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Incomes rose 0.3 percent last month, after rising 0.6 percent in October. Personal savings rose.

The increase in spending suggests income growth is enough to fuel demand. Retail sales unexpectedly rose for a third month in November, allaying concern about a slow start to the holiday shopping season.

``After a strong September and October, this is still a decent number,'' Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said. ``Consumer spending will be a little lower than what we saw in the third quarter, but it's still stellar.''

New orders at U.S. factories for durable goods rose 1.6 percent in November, more than expected, led by surge in demand for commercial aircraft, the Commerce Department also reported. Orders had fallen 0.9 percent the month before.

more...

[54anickel]

31. How Can You Tell If Your Gold Jewelry Is Real?

Wow, I didn't realize this was that big of a problem.

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/print?id=336457

Dec. 17, 2004 - If you're shopping for gold jewelry -- or hoping to receive some -- this holiday season, you may end up paying for gold but getting glorified tinsel. How can you be sure you're getting the real thing?

"20/20" went on a gold-buying spree -- with hidden cameras rolling -- at jewelry stores and markets in Dallas, Maryland, Virginia and New York City and learned that if you're not careful you may end up buying "fools' gold."

In each store, "20/20" shoppers asked to look at gold jewelry that was at least 10 karat, and the clerks were quick to promise that it was. All of the clerks even agreed to put it in writing.

"20/20" asked for that guarantee, because anything less than 10 karats -- or about 42 percent real gold -- can't legally be sold as gold in this country.

"Anything under 10 karat in the United States is a pretty yellow metal, bit it's not gold," said Cecilia Gardener of the Jewelers Vigilance Committee. She says shoppers can easily be ripped off by watered-down gold.

"Just looking at a piece of jewelry, you're not going to be able to tell the difference between nine karat and 10 karat," Gardener said.


Under-Karating Is Common Problem

more...

[54anickel]

32. Relax. You own gold, says Rat Boy (mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty122304.html

snip>

- In last Thursday's Wall Street Journal we were treated to a ridiculous piece of economic punditry entitled "A Personal Matter" written by Gregory Mankiw, the ex-Harvard University putz who is now chairman of the impotent President's Council of Economic Advisors, and who is rumored to be soon leaving that post, and good riddance. This is the same Gregory Mankiw who, the next day, (which you will find, in the footnotes, was Friday, December 17), said, "The economy looks very sound," and who has been the chairman of this Council the entire time that George W. Bush has spent more money, and promised to spend more money, and created the most expensive entitlement program (prescription drug benefit) in American history, and borrowed more money than any other freaking President in American freaking history.

He quotes Ed Prescott, the guy who recently won the Nobel Prize in economics, who opines, "a large part of the difference in performance between our economy and those in Europe is that Europeans work less because they are taxed more." Mankiw, for all his faults, correctly figures that this is not the direction we should be heading. No kidding! The Europeans are being taxed at over 50% of income, and suffering unemployment at more than 10% of the workforce. Although we are, I believe, if truth be told, not far behind them on both of those scores.

Mr. Mankiw, who has been the top moron of the CEA for the entire time while Bush has not vetoed a single spending bill and has run up more debt than any other administration, which is surely indicative of something bizarre, says that the new plan to save social security does not raise taxes. Instead, it runs up lots and lots of debt. Apparently, and incredibly, Mr. Mankiw is unaware that debt has to be paid for out of future taxes (which is de facto raising taxes) or by printing money, which will ignite inflation, which is, in the final analysis, a crippling tax in itself. So he is 100% wrong when he says that the plan to save social security will not raise taxes. It will. You would think that Mankiw would know this, but apparently breezily parading around Harvard like a supercilious twit in front of a bunch of undergraduates who are too scared to tell this moron that he is a jerk, and so he is unaware that he is a jerk. Sort of like around here, where nobody has the guts to tell me I am a big stupid jerk, probably because they are so lightly armed, and they would rather spend their money on rent instead of body armor.

But he, perhaps inadvertently, reveals the nefarious idea behind the plan, which is to, as if you had to be told, pump the stock and bond markets. He says that individuals will be given a choice on "How much to put in stocks, bonds or a money-market fund." Notice your abbreviated list of alternatives? Pumping the stock and bond markets is the only reason for this blatantly foolish silliness, and of course it will end badly. There have been many, many attempts by governments, governments who were peopled by guys who are a lot smarter than the current crop of morons we have in our governments, to pump markets. And while it sometimes temporarily drove prices up, it did not increase their value. And it this phenomena that reveals one of those pesky Iron Laws Of Economics, namely, that when price exceeds value, price will eventually fall.

And I know that you are tired of hearing the stupid Mogambo run his big fat mouth (BFM), so let me entertain you with a little numerical wizardry. If every worker in America, all 132 million of us, all put $1,000 into stocks and bonds, as per the Fabulous New Plan To Save Social Security or whatever that particular idiocy is being called, then that would only be $132 billion dollars per year. Hell, the damned federal government borrows and spends that much PER QUARTER! And not to be outdone, we Americans also have a trade deficit that is ALSO four times as big as this $132 billion windfall to the stock and bond markets.

But we have sunk every dime of every retirement plan of every American into the stock and bond markets, and our various levels of government have all budgeted huge taxation of capital gains into their spending plans, and now those markets are going to get pumped because the alternative is too horrible to think about. Thus, a new Plan To Save Social Security.

more...

[UpInArms]

33. closing numbers, blather and the buck (81.32)

Dow 10,827.12 +11.23 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,160.62 +3.59 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,210.13 +0.56 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218 +0.17 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 955,933,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,429,050,000

Stocks opened mixed on the heels of mixed economic reports, but broad-based bullishness kept market internals positive all day and helped the blue chip averages lock in four straight days of gains... The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at their best levels in three and a half years as buyers dug in their heels to keep the year-end rally intact following a better than expected November durable goods reading of +1.6% (consensus +0.7%) which indicated a healthy pace of manufacturing activity... The University of Michigan's final December index reading of 97.1, versus a 92.8 for November, also lifted investors' spirits after it showed consumer sentiment rose more than expected during the month... Both pieces of data, which helped ignite enough early buying interest that kept the indices near their highs for most of the session, also helped offset a disappointing 12% decline in November new home sales of 1125K units (consensus 1200K)... Other economic data included weekly jobless claims of 333K (consensus 335K), which were higher than the 316K a week earlier but still consistent with continued payroll gains near 200K per month, and November personal income and personal spending figures which roughly matched economists' forecasts... Sectors showing modest gains were biotech, health care and materials while strength in networking, hardware and semiconductor helped offset modest weakness in hardware and software... Energy also showed strength after reports suggested that U.S. oil companies will boost capital spending by an average of 10-15% to develop new crude oil supplies in 2005... Airline (-1.0%) led the list of laggards while homebuilding, consumer staples, utility, telecom services and retail also showed weakness... Meanwhile, crude oil prices ($44.18/bbl -$0.06), unlike yesterday's sell off which prompted broad-based buying interest, had little influence on overall trading... Lighter than usual volumes was evident in both stocks and bonds, as there were no notable earnings reports today and few downside catalysts to prompt aggressive selling interest... The 10-year note held relatively stable during a shortened session for the bond market, closing down 5 ticks to yield 4.21%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1893/1364. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1717/1385.

Last trade 81.32 Change -0.61 (-0.74%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 81.93

High 81.98 Low 81.30

[54anickel]

34. Hey UIA, Have a great holiday!

I've missed bantering back 'n forth with you this week. Hoepfully, next week will be a bit more "normal" around here.

I think the new year will be interesting to watch, especially as the first quarter winds down.

Wonder if we'll see a buck below 80 after the holidays?

Have a good one. :hi:

:party: :toast: :hug:

[UpInArms]

35. back at you 54anickel!

Hope your holidays are filled with warmth, love and peace.

:hug:

[Pallas180]

36. HEY GUYS - this thread is too important to be missed - how about

starting "Stock Market Watch" over in DU groups where it is dedicated
to paticular subjects?

I for one would like to see you over there. And I think you need another 9 people to agree they want the thread in DU Groups...

Rules to get it over there are posted by Skinner under DU groups.

How bout it guys??

Pallas