US military experts: Prepare for a decades-long counterinsurgency campaign

[NNN0LHI]

http://csmonitor.com/2004/1224/p01s03-woiq.html

CAIRO – In a week that saw the deadliest single attack on Americans in Iraq - and the first major US contractor to pull out - more and more military experts are warning that drastic changes are needed to both US strategy and American public expectations if there's to be success there.

Tuesday's suicide bombing at a US mess tent in Mosul is only one of the most visible symbols of the deepening challenge. The "ground has fundamentally shifted" in recent months, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG). Based on field interviews with Iraqis, it says wide-spread disaffection with the US presence is threatening the emergence of stable democracy friendly to the US.

While US troop numbers are rising ahead of Iraqi elections, several analysts, some with close ties to the US defense establishment, say successes in Iraq so far have been minor when held up against an increasingly sophisticated insurgency.

The ICG and others don't expect the insurgents to fade away after Iraq's January 30 election. The best scenarios say it will take years to defeat them. But the game plan so far - including the November assault on Fallujah that killed over 1,000 alleged fighters - has failed to stop the bombings and attacks around the country.

more

[leftchick]

1. So, there is to be a draft!

The only question remaining is when. My guess is the day after the coronation.

[keopeli]

31. Draft process starts March 2005 - I've been saying this for 2 years.

All based on actions by Congress and the Administration*. It's taking them this long to get all the lists together and all the Draft Boards up and running.

March 2005 is when it starts folks.

Merry Christmas!

[SouthernDem2004]

32. Huh?

The draft board has been up and running since its creation. The list have been maintained. Remember the Selective Service card you filled out... The system was recently updated do to its old software and hardware but we are not talking rocket science here. The actual selection process would take oh maybe 15 minutes to start and that is taking into account a coffee break. When it does not happen in March are you going to give it up?

[leftchick]

33. so how do you suppose the US occupies Iraq for another 15 years?

With Iraqi help? With more 'coalition' help? With the UN? Not to mention there are other wars to start in Syria and Iran on idiotboy*s desk. Where will the bodies come from to play in stupidhead*s wars?
Sure, there won't be a draft cuz the pretzeldent said so, right?
:eyes:

[lebkuchen]

2. The contractors leaving are why Rummy is in Iraq now

He's desperate to keep his job, because as he goes, so will the contractors, along with the WH promise of easy money and the expected quid pro quo.

This below is also key, since we know the success rate of the insurgencies mentioned--100%. How much longer will America continue to wear its rose-colored glasses?

But Hammes says the most important change to be made now is in the way that American leaders talk to the people about what's going on in Iraq. He says history shows that most insurgencies, whether the Vietnamese against the French and later the US, or the Afghans against the Soviets, last from 10 to 30 years.

He says he sees no reason why Iraq is any different, but worries the American public was ill-prepared for this by the rosy Administration pronouncements for most of the war.

[ixion]

5. ah yes... remember the days when they were calling it a 'cakewalk'?

all the little chickenhawks dancing to the beat of the war drums and chanting: it's a cakewalk, it's a cakewalk. In and out in 90 days. They'll be throwing roses at our feet.

Some cakewalk. Some 90 days. And where are those roses? :eyes:

[rooboy]

6. Apparently they're lining up in places like Colombia...

to take jobs as mercenaries in Iraq. Apparently there's still a big supply of cheap blood to fuel this conflict for another few years.

[lebkuchen]

7. Bush didn't "can" everyone else yet keep Rummy on for his intellect

or charm.

Rummy is the CEO architect for Iraq. Keeping him on-board is paramount to this administration. His continued success at smarming the RWers who have (or had) military family in Iraq is key for the moment. Failing that, he'll probably end up playing a low-key private sector role in Columbia.

What about Australia? Does it feel it needs the coattails of the US that badly to stick with a sure loser for the next generation?

[NNN0LHI]

9. Australia? They hung with us in Vietnam until we lost that one too

Australia pulled their last troops out of there in May of '72.

Don

[lebkuchen]

12. Australia led the UN international peace keeping mission in East Timor

during the Clinton administration's fiasco there. The Australian govt. even apologized for its dismal history in Indonesian affairs at that time. The Clinton administration wouldn't lift a finger to help promote the vote in that country, with the Australian headlines reading "WHERE ARE THE AMERICANS?" The evil Indonesian Kopassus (then referred to as "militia") were in fact trained and armed by US Special Forces.

I've visited Australia, and one of my siblings is now, most thankfully, an Aussie citizen. My hunch and hope is that Aussies learn faster from their mistakes than do Americans.

[mediaman007]

11. I hope that he has a plan to pay for this

In ten years $200 billion dollars will seem like "Chimp" change!

[lebkuchen]

15. Isn't that where the "crisis" with Social Security comes to play?

Our retirement is our Christmas present to Bush and his buds.

[anakie]

26. While john hoWARd is prime minister

Australia will have a presense in Iraq. However Australia's involvement over there in real terms is bugger all point five. There are probably no more that 1000 troops on the ground in Iraq and most of those are either assigned to protecting the embassy or in training the new Iraqi army. Plus a small naval vessel which has been operating in the Gulf since Poppy's war enforcing the embargo.

The real benefit for hoWARd as he sees it is the Free Trade Agreement between the US and Australia as well as he gets a kick by associating himself with famous people - primarily sportsmen but also politicians. He really is a horrid little man.

[bpilgrim]

10. not only do most insurgencies last decades...

they usually WIN.

D'oh! they left that part out.

peace

[NNN0LHI]

17. You weren't supposed to give the punch line n/t

[bpilgrim]

40. D'oh!

peace

[Ms. Clio]

38. And history shows that the Vietnamese and Afgan "insurgencies"

not only lasted for decades, but in the end, the insurgents WON!!!

If the point is to convince "the American public" to stay the course, he picked some incredibly bad examples.

[saigon68]

3. "There must be some way out of here,"

"There must be some way out of here," said the joker to the thief,
"There's too much confusion, I can't get no relief.
Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth,
None of them along the line know what any of it is worth."

"No reason to get excited," the thief, he kindly spoke,
"There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke.
But you and I, we've been through that, and this is not our fate,
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late."

All along the watchtower, princes kept the view
While all the women came and went, barefoot servants, too.

Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl,
Two riders were approaching, the wind began to howl.

WRITTEN BY BOB DYLAN 1968

PERFORMED BY JIMI HENDRIX 1969 and others

[cornermouse]

4. This is insane.

The insurgency will last as long as we're there. If we leave the insurgency will die. It is that simple.

[leftchick]

8. true...

but that does not mesh with neo-con thinking, which is indeed insane.

[saigon68]

30. A German Gun Crew Shells a Housing Block

A German gun crew shells a housing block during the suppression of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. The original German caption reads: "Fighting a pocket of resistance."




Fallujah, Iraq(Nov. 18, 2004) -- FALLUJAH, Iraq--Marines of Company K, 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, assaulted a mosque recently, in Fallujah during Operation Al Fajr; by a tactical assault with air strikes and artillery fire.

The Mosque was one storage facility for weapons used by insurgents to assault United States forces.

“Our primary mission as a company was to take over the Mosque,” said Staff Sgt. Barto Gueta, 2nd squad, 2nd Platoon K/3/1. “It was suspected of being a large weapons cache. So we had to take it out.”

[NNN0LHI]

35. Nope. There ain't no similarities there...I wish n/t

[izzie]

13. One wonders if we should believe anything they say?

Hard to believe any one any more.

[Seabiscuit]

23. I'm not wondering. They're truly insane.

[teryang]

14. Will is the substitute for reason

I like the way the article comes full circle. It talks about the overwhelming probability of failure and then at the end politically tries to hold out the prospect of some success.

You can't put humpty dumpty back together again.

[saigon68]

16. THEY WILL TRY WITH HUMPTY

And thanks to Halliburton, Billions of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ will line the pockets of the Bush Corporate Criminals.

[lebkuchen]

20. But, with CEO millions invested in a losing cause, Iraq,

that house of cards will come crashing in once Rummy resigns his disastrous reign over our used (as a front for speakeasy corporate deals) and abused military. Investors will then see Bush as no better a bet than he was in his Harkin days.

I've always been concerned about another bin Laden strike against the US. But since we know his goal is to educate, teach by example, and bankrupt the US, I think all of those goals will be met in Iraq alone.

[teryang]

21. When you are no longer competive economically

...there is the inevitable resort to simply taking resources by force. It's a money making proposition for a ruling class losing its competitive position in the world in terms of so called "free trade" and market competition. Who cares about rational allocation and expenditure of resources when you are in a position to just plunder and steal.

The problem with war and colonial conquest is that the so called mother country or "homeland" suffers huge net losses in national treasure, domestic development, and international standing while pursuing a policy meant only to enrich the relative few. This is not to mention the carnage and degradation of human rights associated with this sort of war. Hannah Arendt astutely described how colonialism is the precursor of totalitarianism.

There are the ignorant "volk" element and the "young turks" who support the war effort. The former imagine they benefit somehow, like huge numbers of police, veterans and inland fundies. There are the corporatist supporters who do benefit, like the professional medical class and the financial industries, as laws are quietly and steadily changed in their favor. The young turks directly receive immediate gain from it in some way. Venality turns a blind eye. This mostly includes new security hires, employees of defense contractors, communities outside military bases, and so on.

Get out the patriotic bunting folks, we're having a war. Ain't it grand!

[saigon68]

24. AAH YES--- !!! !the ignorant "volk" element

Scott Peterson and the stolen fetus are far more important to these clueless slugs.

I will give the RePukes a NOD for their accurate outlook and assessment (Rove in particular) - The RePukes know that 70% of the population of the US, are Witless Stoopid Morans. And Rove et al. tailor their propaganda to appeal to and influence the baser emotions (racism, homophobia, sexism, etc.) of these knuckle draggers.

We Democrats--- thinking of the goodness of the human race, haven't yet caught on to the truth. It is our downfall, as the Repukes now have over 5000 radio and TV stations appealing to these ignorant Cretins 24/7.

[JohnyCanuck]

27. Unenlightened human minds

is how Dr. Livergood describes them.

In an earlier article, I reviewed the varied aspects of personality profiling and simulation. While serving as Head of the Artificial Intelligence Department at the U.S. Army War College, 1993-1995, I conducted studies on profiling, psychological programming, and brainwashing. I explored and developed personality simulation systems, an advanced technology used in military war games, FBI profiling, political campaigning, and advertising. Part of my discovery was that:

* unenlightened human minds are combinations of infantile beliefs and emotional patterns

* these patterns can be simulated in profiling systems

* these profiling systems can be used to program and control people

Personality simulation systems are being used to create political campaigns that apply voter profiles to control their voting behavior. TV commercials and programs use personality simulation to profile viewers to control their purchasing and viewing behaviors. And sophisticated propaganda and brainwashing techniques are being used by the Bush junta to keep American citizens under control.

Brainwashing America by Dr. Norman Livergood.

[NNN0LHI]

18. So Iraqis and Americans who aren't born yet will be killing each other

That is a real nice thought during this holiday season.

Don

[saigon68]

25. WAR WITHOUT END

The Execs at Halliburton are WETTING THEIR PANTS WTH GLEEFUL ANTICIPATION

As I type this message.

[Tracer]

19. I have a sneaking suspicion ...

... that the ones "pounding their chests" and looking forward to people "singing songs in their praise", won't be the Americans.

[ckramer]

22. and be prepared for decades-long deaths for this Bush war

[iconoclastic cat]

28. Could "finishing the war" be a rationale adding on a 3rd term for *?

I can see the lemmings going along with that one, the Constitution be damned...

[saigon68]

29. The more things change---- The more they remain the same.

Only 60 years apart

[Raster]

34. Those that don't learn from history's example, end up repeating...

...history's mistakes. Case in point. The occupation of Iraq. Calling it what you want, doesn't change what it is. We invaded a country that posed no threat to our security to gain control over its natural resources and prime middle east location. We now have at least four fortified, permanent military bases in Iraq. Even though we talk about eventually leaving, no one believes it will be anytime soon. No matter what happens, we will ALWAYS be looked upon as an occupying enemy force. The Pentagon has stated unequivocally that we have lost the war for the hearts and minds of the people of Iraq and in the Arab community worldwide. Military force will never be enough in the middle east where history is long and blood feuds can run for generations.

[Mr_Spock]

36. This is perfect. It's exactly what these Straussian dictators want to hear

This is exactly what Shrubco wants to hear. Nothing like an endless war to keep the mindless gnomes in check. Too bad we know this old trick and all that this old-fashioned control scheme will lead to a civil war and the destruction of our Great Empire. What a shame.

[Javaman]

37. AKA decades long money making scheme...

[Cocoa]

39. decades wasn't part of the deal

we went to war to get rid of WMDs.

See my signature line, Perle doesn't say anything about "decades."

[nolabels]

41. Unless they have Republicans running point on scout missions............

they can count me out. I already served my time honorably and also would not be able to live with myself anymore if I had do some more under the command of an AWOL and or Draft Dodgers.