Iraq poll hangs on overseas vote

[Rhiannon12866]

UN launches £50m operation to reach four million expatriates

Jason Burke and Tariq Panja
Sunday December 26, 2004
The Observer

A last-minute push to prepare millions of Iraqis living overseas to vote in the critical elections in their homeland next month has been launched by the United Nations.
With only five weeks until the poll, there are still no clear estimates of how many expatriate Iraqis might be eligible to vote, though analysts agree that they could determine its outcome. Around 250,000 Iraqis live in Britain - one of the biggest expatriate communities - with up to four million spread elsewhere around the world.

In one of the biggest exercises of its type, costing around £50 million, tens of thousands of volunteers in 15 countries are working frantically to register Iraqis who are aged over 18.

In Britain, three registration centres will be set up next month in preparation for polling on 30 January.

The booths will be manned by Iraqis living in the UK, though security will be in the hands of local police. Around 600 Iraqi exiles in Britain will be trained by the International Organisation for Migration, the UN body mandated by the Iraqi electoral commission to conduct the poll.

'There is a huge amount of enthusiasm,' said Sarah Fradgley, an IOM spokesperson in London. 'Some people have complained there are only three centres, but we have pointed out that, if they were living in Tokyo, they would have to go to Los Angeles.'

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1379791,00.html

[Racenut20]

1. A condition of voting should be they must move back.

After all, we gave them their freedom.

[Rhiannon12866]

10. I'm on the fence about this

But I posted this article because I was thinking as you are. However, we allow expatriates to vote in our elections, and we welcome their votes, because they tend to be progressives. But if these people are like Chalabi, uncle and nephew, I have serious reservations. The INC is not not indicative of the general Iraqi consensus, but there is no consensus, even among Iraqi citizens who are living there, among Shi'a and Sunni and Kurd, and the various factions within them. *sigh*:shrug:

[katinmn]

2. I read about a rather large community of Iraqis

living in the US that trace their roots in the region back to BC. The leader has funded some communications vehicles (TV, radio) where he can spread his political message to those in Iraq.

I wonder if people in exile for decades can vote in the election. Doesn't seem quite fair to the people who have had to endure the occupation.

No matter what, it's going to be a huge bloody mess with no clearcut man-date for one group over another, just whoever * wants in as a puppet.

[Gman]

3. I'm not so sure it will be whoever * wants

It appears the Shiites are well on their way to a big victory which is NOT what Bushco wants. Bushco is scrounging desperately for votes where ever they can find them. If the expatriate vote would go decidedly for the Shiites rest assured they would be seeking ways to exclude expatriates. So I see this as an act of desperation by Blair and Bushco.

This election will be the beginning of a train wreck of biblical proportions. If Shiites do not win it will be obvious that the vote was rigged. The reaction of Iraqis will make Fallujah and Mosul look like picnics. After all, Shiites make up 80% of the population. If the Shiites win, Bushco will have to decide whether or not to allow the duely elected government to stand. Either way Bushco decides, the US loses.

I dread and regret the deaths of thousands more Iraqis because of Bush's lies.

[LynnTheDem]

4. Shia = 80%???

Latest census poll done shows the SUNNI as the majority, and the Shia themselves say they're 40% of Iraq's population:

Fresh statistics by an international organization suggested that Iraq's Sunnis are in a clear majority, as Shiite scholars conceded that Shiites could make up as much as 40 percent of the whole population.

The statistics, released by a reliable international humanitarian relief agency in 2003, suggested that Sunnis make up 58 percent of the Iraqi population and Shiites 40 percent.

'The Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq' put the whole population at about 27 million, including 16 million Sunnis and 11 million Shiites, Quds Press International news agency reported on Wednesday, January 28.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/archive25.htm

Could you provide a link to who said 80%? Thanks!

Otherwise I so agree with you; huge train wreck coming...

We've already lost; we'll just continue to lose more.

[NYC]

5. Perhaps the 80% was from this article:

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7179624

Some leaders among Sunni Arabs, a 20-percent minority who dominated the country under Saddam Hussein and before, have called for the election to be put off because violence in the north and west will make it hard for Sunnis to vote.

But Shi'ites, who account for 60 percent of the 26 million population, are keen to exercise their electoral weight.

Although it does say 60% (not 80%) Shi'ites.

[TahitiNut]

6. Shi'a 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%

Ethnic groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turkoman, Assyrian or other 5%
Religions: Muslim 97% (Shi'a 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%), Christian or other 3%

Source CIA World Factbook

[LynnTheDem]

7. The CIA uh huh.

The same CIA who says civil war will break out if we leave Iraq. Although the Iraqis say this is CIA bullshit.

The same CIA who haven't had boots on the ground in Iraq for over a decade.

Yet a NEW RECENT survey done last year says 58% Sunni, 40% Shia...and the SHIA say 40% Shia.

I don't believe the CIA; I will believe the Shia. I figure they should know best. ;)

[Gman]

8. I read the 80% figure somewhere earlier this morning

and don't remember where, nor do I want to go find it as, right now, its too much work!

But... isn't it true that part of the problem with Saddam's rule was that he was Sunni, and the Sunni's had power via the Baath party even though they were in the minority? Isn't it also true that the ruling sect was the minority Sunnis and this caused a lot of resentment among the majority Shiites? This is the main reason why I see a train wreck of biblical proportions awaiting Iraq in January.

[LynnTheDem]

9. No it isn't true.

Sadam's top man is a Christian, always has been a Christian.

The leader of the Iraqi army was a Shi'ite.

On the top government council sat 3 Sunnis, 3 Shi'ites and 1 Christian.

But how would the US govt get their war if they said they were overthrowing the MAJORITY population (Sunnis) who ruled WITH and BESIDE the Shia and Christians and who worship together in the same Mosques, live in the same tribes, and marry each other?

It's called "divide & conquer" tactics; it didn't work in Vietnam except to dupe Americans, and it isn't working in Iraq...except to dupe Americans.

Americans would do well to listen to the IRAQIS for once. But of course that isn't likely to happen.

[Rhiannon12866]

12. Of course the Shi'a will make up the majority

Since, I agree, they are the majority. The Sunnis are threatening not to vote, but they don't compromise a majority of the population, anyway. So this must be what Bush* expects, but he has already judged so badly about Iraq. We were not greeted as liberators, as the INC told him we'd be, and, huge surprise, there were no WMDs, which was wonderful for our troops, but bad for Bush*, and, if the Shi'a majority predominate in an election, that very well might not even take place, they could end up with another theocracy, like Iran, and end up with another Middle East country who hates us. Is all the loss of life, both American and Iraqi, worth it, for this? Saddam is gone, but he was once considered an ally, under Reagan and Bush* Sr. What a waste and another Western-inspired mess, like Iran, in this part of the world, that would last for generations.;(

[Rhiannon12866]

11. Jimmy Carter, an obvious authority on difficult foreign elections,

has said that he didn't think this election would ever take place. There are just too many impediments and way too much danger. Terrorist groups have said that anyone who voted in this election would be considered "an infidel," and treated as such, another story I posted in this forum. The implication was that anyone who tries to vote will be in danger of being killed.;(

Some kind of elections may take place, but not elections as we know them. Something that this administration calls elections will probably take place, since Bush* and Rumsfeld has insisted that they will. Jimmy Carter was asked if The Carter Center would be overseeing the Iraqi elections, as he has done in difficult places, like Indonesia, Mozambique and Venezuela. He said that he'd be perfectly willing to, but he then laughed, saying that he doubted that he'd be asked for help by this administration.;(