China Says Situation in Taiwan Straits 'Grim'

[Khephra]

BEIJING (Reuters) - Relations between China and Taiwan are grim and the Chinese people and army will crush any major moves toward independence at any cost, a government white paper said on Monday.

snip..........

"Should the Taiwan authorities go so far as to make a reckless attempt that constitutes a major incident of 'Taiwan independence', the Chinese people and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost," it said.

http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=7180953

[Deja Q]

1. Well, the US had France. Who's going to save Taiwan from their fascists?

:shrug:

[Disturbed]

2. The U.S. Govt. will not.

China has the U.S. by the throat with loans. Freedom is only a word now with no meaning.

[brainshrub]

3. How good are the Chinese at storming beaches?

Any historical precident? (i.e. Chinese storming a beach with modern technology)

My understanding is that a beach landing against a well fortified enemy is the singlemost difficult military manuver. Otherwise, the Chinese would have done so decades ago.

[Ian David]

4. My guess

I would bet that China would use chemical or bio weapons against Taiwan.

Most likely chemical.

China wants Taiwan. They do not necessarily want the Taiwanese.

And if the US goes to blows against North Korea and/or Iran and/or Syria, they'll figure the US and (what's left of) our allies will have our hands too full to respond.

The moment the US is engaged in another shooting war-- especialy against North Korea-- China will make its move, possibly without provocation.

Welcome to Bush's Armageddon, people.

[Sandpiper]

7. And the fact that the U.S. has a "one China policy"

Would undermine any legal grounds for coming to Taiwan's aid if China did decide to invade.

[Old and In the Way]

12. 3 groups actually.

Mainland Chinese, Nationalist Chinese who took over Formosa, and Formosans. The Nationalists are mainland Chinese who fled to the island in 1949. Neither side could sustain an invasion of the other. Both sides could trigger a MAD scenario on the other, however.

Both sides lose big in a war....I can't believe that either side could justify the risks for provoking a war. But that doesn't mean it couldn't happen....or maybe AL-Caida could steal a submarine and torch a few in both directions to jumpstart a regional war. After 9/11, anything is possible.

[lenidog]

8. The Chinese have no

actual experience in storming the beaches and at last count they only had enough shipping to get one division across. So more than likely they will bombard Taiwan with missiles and bomb them with aircraft till they surrender.

[Bouncy Ball]

6. "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

Janis Joplin

[illflem]

9. Actually Kris Kristofferson

[Old and In the Way]

11. Taiwan is pretty militarized, I think if you want to label someone

fascist here, I'd go with Taiwan. While the rhetoric is hot, I really don't see where either side gains much in a war. They both lose big. The Taiwanese business class is certainly players in China's ecoomy, lots of Taiwanese factories there (and Japenese, and Korean)....I've met some real condescending Taiwanese who look at the Chinese with a lot of contempt. I've met some real gung-ho Taiwanese that remind me a lot of our Red State brethern. They believe they have the superior society and they should be formulating the vision for China's future. Remember, their military has had extremely close ties to the US for over 50 years...lots of them talk and think like our FreeRepublicans. Frankly, if I were mainland China, I'd give them Taiwan. Why would they really want to absorb their enemies in their government? The PRC's internal economy will dwarf and consume Taiwan's anyway. I think China has lots of trade leverage with Taiwan, too. There are only 22MM Taiwanese and that's equivalent to Hong Kong/Shenzhen metropolitan area.

The real issue is Taiwan's proximity (150 miles) to the major Southern China population/industrial province and their capabilities to destroy same. Taiwan can field about 5MM 'fit for service'. Compare Taiwan's $7.8BB Defense budget vs. China's $20BB. You know Taiwan has state-of-art communications/missle technology.

An independent Taiwan and a mutual security pact to defuse military build-up would need to addressed and agreed to in parallel for a real resolution to the tensions to occur, I think.

[Voltaire99]

13. Great post - highly recommended. (n/t)

[Lexingtonian]

5. Taiwan needs about ten years

at which point Taiwan should be sufficiently distinct enough of a society that attempts to integrate it into China will be more dangerous to Peking's power than its independence.

[Oversea Visitor]

10. Stay Cool

China has never been ambitious in its history

Look at Hong Kong and Macau ..... no dead when they return to the fold

China I beleive is willing to wait for the people of Taiwan to decide to come back to the fold even if it take a million years.

Taiwan is already acting independently of China. One sure way of losing that independent is to DECLARE INDEPENDENT. China never attempted to use military force to take back Taiwan look at the History. Sadly they will if Taiwan go ahead with this crazy idea.

[teryang]

14. They will wait

What they are waiting for is the inevitable unification of Korea. At that point the matter of continued American presence there will have to be negotiated as well as other security issues. In order for the Chinese to lose its sphere of influence in the North, it will be in a position to gain elsewhere. If the Americans seek to gain or retain their foothold on the Korean peninsula at Chinese expense, then the Chinese will have to gain something. However if Americans withdraw their military presence from the peninsula in the event of unification Chinese progress vis a vis Taiwan would be stalled.

If the failure of Kims government in N. Korea comes from American military provocation of some kind, then the chances of a Hong Kong like schedule for mainland control of Taiwan would be greater.