STOCK MARKET WATCH FRIDAY, SEPT. 12, 2003 ..(#1)

[Maeve]

Friday, September 12, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 500
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 298
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 273 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 331 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 173
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 657
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES...............S&P FUTURES



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 11, 2003
Dow 9,459.76 +39.30 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,846.11 +22.30 (+1.22%)
S&P 500 1,016.42 +5.50 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.334% +0.065
Gold futures…380.80 -0.30
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DOW…...........NASDAQ….........S&P (auto-update, hit refresh/reload)


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details &
links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more,
are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actionsCitizens For Legitimate Government
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[saigon68]

1. Good Morning Maeve

Where's it going today??/

[Maeve]

3. Good morning and who knows?

Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales reports due out at 8:30(both expecting slight rises); Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September due out at 9:45 (August was 89.3, expected to rise to 90.4).

The whole stock rally has been predicated on the idea of an economic recovery in this latter part of the year--we're still waiting.

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[Maeve]

2. Market Wrap-up with Martin Goldberg

"Stock Market Gurus and Technical Analysis"
I knew nothing about the stock market intelligent investing or trading until I was 36 years old. As a new investor, my first exposure to technical analysis was from the words penned in 1996 by David and Tom Gardner in The Motley Fool Investment Guide, page 226, first edition:

“Next put your hands together for the amazing Phyrum – magician to princes, wizard of the North, prestidigitator extraordinaire! Observe the sleight of hand, the sheer hocus-pocus, the hypnotic influence that this master of mummery exerts over millions….”

This book was also the first in my self-education in stock market investing. These two young “gurus” in court jester suits were dismissing technical analysis as “hocus-pocus.”<more>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As many of you know, Financial Sense On-line is very technical analysis-oriented, and they have been running articles helping to illuminate that view point.

[JNelson6563]

4. Good Morning Maeve and all!

While I have to admit that what the wrap-up has been doing is a very good idea in that it may help some taking an interest better understand things, I have missed those great columns on the day's action.

It is always so insightful and will likely be even moreso with the new writers (and their perspectives) coming on board. Another reason I am fond of it is that it so often voices my own rudimentary ideas of what's happening--a nice confirmation for me.

Who knows what we are in for today? Lots of numbers coming out today. Could be interesting.

Julie

[Maeve]

5. Hmmmm...PPI and Retail Sales info

Here's what was predicted:
Retail sales were set to be reported by the government before trading begins. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com project a 1.5 percent increase in August, slightly above July's 1.4 percent rise.

Also due at 8:30 a.m. ET are producer prices, a measure of inflation on the wholesale level. They are seen having risen 0.3 percent in August after a 0.1 percent climb in July. Excluding food and energy, the increase is seen at just 0.1 percent, compared with 0.2 percent in the prior month.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/12/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

Here's what we got:Retail sales up 0.6% in August; producer prices up 0.4% in August. Details coming. http://money.cnn.com/

PPI higher than expected (but not much); Retail Sales not nearly as good as expected. Looks like folks aren't buying the "recovery".

[JNelson6563]

6. wow!

With all that bad news things should go absolutely swimmingly today! Remember, bad UE numbers were warmly received yesterday! This ought to about send the lemmings over the cliff in ecstasy!!

Sheesh!

Julie

[Maeve]

7. Mortgage rates drop, foreclosures drop, but future still cloudy

A couple of articles here that point to a still cloudy future for the American homeowner and home-wanna-owner.

Mortgage foreclosures fall

Mortgage rates head sharply lower

Add in this from Newsweek--too many folk are at-risk of bankruptcy because they are over-invested in their houses
Housebound

[Maeve]

8. here we go 9:32

Dow 9,434.70 -25.06 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,833.48 -12.61 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,013.68 -2.74 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.237% -0.097

[Maeve]

9. 9:45 and not getting any better

Dow 9,416.67 -43.09 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,832.54 -13.55 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,011.36 -5.06 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218% -0.116

[Pale Blue Dot]

10. Maeve - what triggers the curbs? nt

[Maeve]

11. Here ya go--a whole page on it!

http://www.programtrading.com/curbs.htm

Let me hit the main points, tho...

"The NYSE applies program trading curbs whenever the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves 180 points higher, or 180 points lower than the previous day's closing price.

This NYSE restriction on program trades stays in place until the Dow Jones returns to within 90 points of the previous day's closing price; or, until the end of the trading day"
<snip>
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 10%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for 60 minutes. If the Dow Jones rallies 10%, there is no restriction. Why? Because program buying and the accompany rally is always perceived as "good".

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 20%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for two hours. There is no trading halt if it rallies 20%, as that would be perceived as "very very good".

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 30%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for the day. There is no trading halt if it rallies 30%, as that would be perceived as "the best thing that ever happened in the history of the world".

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. Thanks!

:-)

[Coventina]

13. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hi everyone!

Today's reading is RESTRAINED changing to INSIGHT.
Restrained says, "This is a poor time for new business ventures." Insight recommends, "Become totally open and unprejudiced toward the object of your inquiry."

I am going to predict a down day for the markets. I think maybe the NASDAQ will be especially bad.

Have a good weekend everyone!

:hi:

[Maeve]

14. 10:43 and some upward bounce

Dow 9,402.70 -57.06 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,831.69 -14.40 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,010.57 -5.85 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.200% -0.134

[Maeve]

18. 11:31 and the patient is doing better

But not out of the woods yet...

Dow 9,428.18 -31.58 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,835.78 -10.31 (-0.56%)
S&P 500 1,013.21 -3.21 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.205% -0.129

[jamesinca]

15. Good morning all

Looks like the numbers are climbing back up the cliff after jumping off of it. What happened to the Euro? It has gone back into the 80's. Those are the same numbers it was at when the Dow was at 89-90. It seems the Euro is based on UE and not the stocks, or do the Europeans know something we don't or at least something we don't talk about.

[Maeve]

16. Michigan Consumer Sentiment drops

Michigan sentiment index falls
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A closely watched measure of consumer confidence in the United States fell to its lowest level in five months in September, according to a published report Friday, despite Wall Street forecasts for a slight gain.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 88.2 from 89.3 in August, according to market sources quoted by Reuters. Economists, on average, expected a reading of 90, according to a Reuters poll. It was the lowest reading for the index since 86 in April.

[UpInArms]

17. the dollar watch

for the day shows the PPT hard at work

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 95.92 Change -0.64 (-0.66%)

[Maeve]

19. 11:55 update

Lotta bouncing today..

Dow 9,417.16 -42.60 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,834.03 -12.06 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,012.07 -4.35 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.191% -0.143

11:30AM: The bulls stay at the head of the action as the major averages persist in retracing their morning losses... Among the sectors that have improved into the green are the networking, brokerage, banking, healthcare, and housing groups... The banking and housing sectors, in particular, are benefiting from today's drop in interest rates... Specifically, the 10-year note is up +30/32, with its yield at 4.20%, its lowest level since the end of July...
The bond market is rallying in reactiong to the weaker-than-expected economic reports including the Retail Sales report at 0.6% (consensus 1.5%) and the Michigan Sentiment report at 88.2 (consensus 90.4)...http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[wetbandit2003]

20. Horse POOP!!!!!!!!

I particularly think that the stock market is nothing
more than a bunch of people betting on horse racing.


:bounce:

[mrsteve]

23. A popular sentiment better expressed by others

I think that ProfessorGAC was in here the other day saying something similar, but with a bit more subtlety and erudition.

I don't think anyone here underestimates the apparent randomness of the market itself, but as far as I'm concerned, I am fascinated by the interplay of elements in the US and world economy and view the stock market as a window on those elements. This thread and the ideas that are collected in the thread (by all the people much smarter than I who post here) offer insights that I would miss without spending many hours a day scouring the financial pages (which would prevent me from doing my job and getting paid, ironically enough).

My personal investments are quite small, but tracking the market every day in this thread also helps me feel more confident that I can make more informed decisions on what to do with my paltry estate.

Finally, I also love to see it when * gets on the TV and blathers about how great the economy is doing, and the stock market immediately drops even while he is still speaking. :evilgrin:

[Maeve]

24. Oooo...it's been awhile since we charted the Piehole Effect!

That was one of radfringe's better ones--the Rectum Scale showed how bad the market tanked everytime Dubya opened his piehole on television!

I miss radfringe's take on things...she had to stop posting during the day due to job constraints, but is still around off-hours and on the weekends.

[mrsteve]

21. Afternoon all - 12:15 numbers

As Maeve says, its just kind of bouncing along slowly upward since 10:00 -

Dow 9,415.26 -44.50 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,832.89 -13.20 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,011.67 -4.75 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.207% -0.127

Yahoo Finance says -
"12:00PM: The bears are "it" today as the indices have spent the entirety of the session engulfed underwater... The negative bias is founded in several worse-than-expected economic reports and a lackluster earnings announcement... Specifically, the Retail Sales report checked in at 0.6% (consensus 1.5%) and ex-auto at 0.7% (consensus 0.8%), while the preliminary September Michigan Sentiment report, which came in at 88.2, was below the consensus of 90.4 and at its lowest level since April...
Investors have chosen to use these reports as an excuse to take some money off the table and as a result the majority of the sectors have spent the entirety of the session in the red... The Nasdaq has consistently underperformed its blue-chip counterparts and its weakness is, at least partially, attributable to this morning's earnings announcement from Oracle (ORCL 12.27 -0.71), which reported in-line EPS of $0.08, but came in light on the top-line with revenues of $2.07 bln (consensus $2.14 bln)...

So Oracle's earning came in low, and they are beating the Nasdaq a little for it. I would think the damage wold be worse, as Oracle is quite the big deal in the software industry, next to MS and IBM.

[JNelson6563]

22. just checking in

12:24 much the same


Dow 9,417.02 -42.74 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,833.91 -12.18 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 1,012.07 -4.35 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.203% -0.131

Quieter now but still quite a move in treasuries!! Yikes!!

Will check back later!

Julie

[Hawkeye-X]

25. Woohoo! I actually MADE money!

I bought Covad stocks while they were at $1.00 & bankrupt and I checked it for the first time in some time -- it's now up $5.14 -- and I actually am profiting from the bankruptcy of Covad (OTCBB) - my question is this - when Covad gets out of bankruptcy, will I still have the same stocks or will the shares be worthless to me?

Hawkeye-X

[ozone_man]

26. The bear market rally is history.

Finally starting to dawn on the bag holders, that the economy isn't doing so well after all. The insider selling has reached extreme levels over the past few months. Should be interesting in the next few months.

The last 6 months have been an attempt to relive the great bull market and high valuations of the internet boom years. I think the average bullish market guru will be jumping off the band wagon soon.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF5C5E297%2D81F3%2D4B73%2DB7EA%2DCF8D7BA88EC8%7D&siteid=mktw

[Maeve]

27. But the talking heads have said the bear market was dead!

Who you gonna believe, the experts or your lyin' eyes? :eyes:

You're just encouraging my pessimistic POV, y'know...

[ozone_man]

29. From a contrarian viewpoint, this is very bearish (IMO).

The bull to bear ratio is at an extreme and no matter how hard they are trying to convince us otherwise, a reversal is coming or here now.

Aside from contrarian view, the fundamentals are weak and PEs very high still, and bear market bottoms should have PEs returning to about 10 or so. Not there by a long shot.

[JNelson6563]

32. Good question

and I don't have an answer. I think every bankruptcy ends on different terms. I'd look into that if I were you though.

Julie

[Shrek]

38. Why'd you have to tell me that?

I bought COVD a long time ago at 2.00 and then held forever waiting for it to move. I finally got tired of it and bailed out over the summer at just over a dollar a share.

I would have been perfectly happy if you hadn't decided to share this news x(.

[mrsteve]

28. 1:30 - sideways dance still under the open line

Dow 9,415.05 -44.71 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,834.07 -12.02 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,011.35 -5.07 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226% -0.108


Yahoo Finance sez not much:
"1:30PM: More of the same as the indices are drifting sideways with moderate losses... Among the few sectors that are managing to stay in positive territory today are the brokerage, housing, and cyclycal sectors... In the latter, U.S. Steel (X 18.98 +0.52) is the leader to the upside... X was upgraded at Goldman Sachs this morning to Outperform from Underperform, as steel prices are rising faster than expected and X appears best-positioned to benefit..."

[wetbandit2003]

30. Short sellers rule the day.

I predict that the DJIA will close @ 80. The "shorts" will
cash in their chips at the last hour of the week. I also
think the fed will cut the discount rate again.

[Maeve]

31. Whoa! Where'd the buyers come from???

Dow 9,480.46 +20.70 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,852.13 +6.04 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,018.34 +1.92 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.243% -0.091

[salin]

33. they have to attempt to end in the positive... someone has to

save whistle ass's political butt... so the big financial folks are doing their part by trying to prevent the week from appearing to be ending on a sagging note.

Okay - so thats a sarcastic response - but recent market behavior seems, at times, to defy rational logic.

[JNelson6563]

34. no kidding!

It's like some huge bird just swooped down and scooped up stocks...

3:19

Dow 9,478.91 +19.15 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,853.34 +7.25 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,018.89 +2.47 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.269% -0.065


Even though still a pretty big move in treasuries it looks to have toned down by about half....IMO

Julie

[mrsteve]

35. Damn - leave for 90 minutes and look what happens - 3:45 numbers

Last 15 minutes of the trading week and things are popping up over the waterline:

Dow 9,460.46 +0.70 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,848.37 +2.28 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,017.43 +1.01 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.269% -0.065


Yahoo Finance reasoning:
"3:30PM: The indices reach higher encouraged, at least partially, by today's slide in interest rates... Specifically, the 10-year note is currently up +14/32, with its yield at 4.26%, its lowest level since the end of July..."

[mrsteve]

36. At the close

Everybody's above sea level. Funny how things turn out, isn't it?

Dow 9,471.55 +11.79 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,855.04 +8.95 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,018.65 +2.23 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.269% -0.065

[Maeve]

37. As we used to say

"Not funny-ha-ha, but funny-strange".

Have a good weekend!

[JNelson6563]

39. Week wrap-up

Hey all, sorry I missed so much of the action this week. My hubby's been on vacation so I've had less opportunity to stop in frequently.

So here's the week in review:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose in moderate trading volume on Friday, as a late afternoon technical rally lifted stocks from week-low levels.

Technical support levels were triggered, traders said, after investors sold off shares on weak economic reports and lackluster licensing news from tech heavyweight Oracle Corp. (NasdaqNM:ORCL - News)

"It's a little bounce off some support levels, nothing more than that," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

snip

Despite the late rally, all three indexes ended lower for the week. The Dow fell 0.33 percent, Nasdaq fell 0.17 percent and the S&P 500 fell 0.27 percent.

Fueled by expectations for an economic rebound in coming months, stocks have run sharply higher in recent months, peaking early this week. So far this year, the Dow is up 13 percent, Nasdaq is up 39 percent and the S&P 500 is up 16 percent.

But with evidence of recovery still patchy, investors have become nervous that the market has moved too far, too fast.

"The market will remain in a trading range," said Jeff Swensen, senior trader at John Hancock Funds. "We do have a recovery in place, but it's not as robust as what's priced into the market."

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030912/markets_stocks_24.html

Mmm hmm. It's a recovery alright. *wink*

See you all Monday! :hi:

Julie