STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 30 December

[ozymandius]

Thursday December 30, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 21 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 19 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 73 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1134
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 28, 2004

Dow... 10,829.19 -25.35 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq... 2,177.00 -0.19 (-0.01%)
S&P 500... 1,213.45 -0.09 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.32% +0.03 (+0.72%)
Gold future... 437.00 -8.30 (-1.90%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

UpInArms, CabalPowered, 54anickel, RawMaterials, loudsue, bahrbearian, merkins, MARALE

I want to thank everyone above for their cheer and supportive comments about my new job and continued authoring of this thread. Additional thanks goes to everyone who is always here. I will happily continue to post the daily SMW per popular request.

I want to thank 54anickel for stepping up to the plate during my absence next week.

Gotta run for now - with hopes to check in later.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

4. Glad to see you again this morning, Ozy!

:yourock:

[54anickel]

10. ACK!!! That IS next week already, isn't it? Whoa, better set the alarm

clock!!!

I'll try to do my best Ozy. Hope everyone is patient with me. Forgive me if I somehow mess up those day counts you have going. Let me know if you have any tricks to keep those all straight in your head, short of using your fingers, I already do that one. B-)

[54anickel]

15. Great toon! Puts Ricardo's comparative advantage into perspective...n/t

[JNelson6563]

30. Rock on Ozy!

I've been pretty absent but glad to be reading of your success. I'll get a long over-due update to you via PM sometime today. Big things in the works.

To your continued success! :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 80.86 Change -0.11 (-0.14%)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a1M2YHAEJzUE&refer=news_index

Dollar Trades Near Record Low; Policy Makers May Not Stem Slide

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a record low against the euro on speculation U.S. and European officials won't act to stem a drop that's pushed the currency toward a third consecutive annual decline.

The U.S. currency has lost almost 3 cents versus the euro since Dec. 15, when President George W. Bush said he favors a strong dollar whose value is set by markets. The dollar is down 8.2 percent so far this year against the euro and about 16 percent from its high for the year.

``It is like stepping in front of a freight train, trying to go long dollars any time in the past six months,'' said T.J. Marta, a currency strategist in New York at RBC Capital Markets. ``We see $1.40 as being very viable against the euro.''

<snip>

`Extremely Thin'

Markets in the U.K. and Australia were closed the past two days and Japan has holidays Dec. 31 and Jan. 3. Japan's stock markets tomorrow close for the year after morning trading.

``The market is extremely thin,'' said Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc. ``One or two clients have business to do at year-end but that's about it.'' He expects the dollar to fall to $1.40 per euro and 98 yen by March 31.

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Today's Report:

Dec 30 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 12/25
report 326K
briefing.com 330K
market 335K
last report 331K
revised from 333K

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

21. Dollar slides on manufacturing activity in Chicago area

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38351.429389537-830557692&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar lost ground in the wake of disappointing data in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Against the euro, the U.S. currency was at $1.3623, down 0.1 percent. The greenback was off 0.58 percent against Japan's currency, at 103.14 yen.

[UpInArms]

3. U.S. initial jobless claims dip 5,000 to 326,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38351.3542090857-830555413&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits dipped by 5,000 in the week ending Dec. 25 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The less-volatile four-week average of new claims dropped by 6,000 to 333,500, a five-week low. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch were expecting, on average, that initial claims would rise to about 333,000. The number of workers receiving unemployment checks rose by 29,000 to 2.76 million in the week ending Dec. 18.

8:30am 12/30/04 U.S. INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY AT 2.2%

8:30am 12/30/04 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 29,000 TO 2.755M

8:30am 12/30/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. INITIAL CLAIMS OFF 6,000 TO 333,500

8:30am 12/30/04 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 5,000 TO 326,000

[UpInArms]

5. Swiss Re says insurance cost of tsunami low

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/3fd4cd2e-5a4c-11d9-aa6e-00000e2511c8.html

Damages from Sunday’s tsunami seem unlikely to wreak devastation on the insurance industry after Swiss Re, the world’s second-largest reinsurer, said on Thursday that disaster would cost it less than SFr100m ($88m).

The Swiss group said that despite the widespread death and destruction, the effect on its business would be comparatively low.

“The claims burden for the insurance sector will be in sharp contrast to the human and economic damages triggered by this event,” the company said. “Most of the insured losses are likely to concern property damage and business interruption.”

According to analysts, most of the victims were also likely to be poor and without insurance cover.

Losses would not be catastrophic as Swiss Re was not heavily exposed in the region, the company said.

Shares in Swiss Re and its larger rival, Munich Re, have been under pressure since news of the huge tsunami broke on Sunday because the market expected the companies to pick up most of the tab for the damages.

...more...

[54anickel]

12. Oh, well thank goodness for that! It was only poor brown folk /sarcasm

[UpInArms]

6. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. A slightly positive bias continues to hold in the futures trade, which should translate into a modestly higher open for the indices... Analyst comments, however, are few and far between while there are no notable earnings reports until next week and overnight action in Asian markets was mixed... The Nikkei closed up nearly 1% while the Hang Seng fell 0.7%

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures indications hold relatively steady in positive territory, suggesting a higher open for the cash market, following economic data that basically matched expectations... Initial claims for unemployment came in at 326K versus expectations of 335K

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures suggesting a flat to slightly higher open for the indices as the market waits for the latest read on jobs (initial claims at 8:30 ET - consensus 335K) and manufacturing (Chicago PMI at 10:00 ET)... Reports suggest that new prescriptions for Pfizer's (PFE) painkiller Celebrex plummeted 56% last week, Continental Airlines (CAL) agrees to buy 10 7E7s from Boeing (BA) and crude oil slips below $43/bbl on warmer weather forecasts for the Northeast this weekend

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 index closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1616.90. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If The NASDAQ 100 index extends this fall's rally, a test of weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1586 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

The March S&P 500 index closes slightly higher on Wednesday in quiet pre-holiday trading. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but diverging, which is a warning to bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be near. If March extends this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1200.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If the Dow extends this fall's rally, the April 28, 2000 high crossing at 11,540 is the next projected upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,769 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted.

[UpInArms]

7. understanding yesterday's home sale numbers

http://www.local6.com/news/4035258/detail.html

Previously-Owned Home Sales Driven By Florida Rebound

The best month on record for sales of previously-owned homes nationally is partly due to the post hurricane rebound in Florida.

The National Association of Realtors says November's sales of existing homes was up 2.7 percent over October to an all-time monthly high of 6.9 million houses.

The previous monthly high record pace of sales was set in June 2004. In Florida, the latest numbers seem to indicate the state has shrugged off any lingering effects of four hurricanes. November sales of existing single-family homes rose 9 percent from a year ago.

The median sales price surged 22 percent to 192 thousand, 400 dollars, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

On a percentage basis, Tallahassee was the most active market in the state, reporting a 40 percent rise in sales.

...more...

[54anickel]

14. See, war and calamity of ANY type is good for the economy. Must be

BeezleBush's new economic policy. God really IS on his side, and if there's a shortage of natural disasters he'll just blow something up somewhere! :eyes:

snip>

In Florida, employment and wages are high partly because of all the work rebuilding from the year's four hurricanes.

[UpInArms]

8. 9:37 EST markets are open and happy!

Dow 10,847.89 +18.70 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,180.82 +3.82 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,215.26 +1.81 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 43.02 -0.20 (-0.46%)

NYSE Volume 30,973,000
Nasdaq Volume 90,015,000

[UpInArms]

11. adding blather

9:40AM: Market shrugs off yesterday's losses and opens slightly higher, in line with futures indications... Initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week which ended on Christmas Day fell 5K to 326K, slightly lower than economists' forecasts of 335K... Jobless claims, which have been very volatile since September, with an average weekly move of 21K, reflect the strengthening labor market but have provided little influence on early market direction as investors wait for an update on manufacturing activity...

December Chicago PMI (consensus 63.0) and November Help-Wanted Index (consensus 37) will both be out at 10:00 ET...

[UpInArms]

9. More reports due at 10:00 EST

Dec 30 10:00 AM
Chicago PMI Dec
report -
briefing.com 62.0
market 63.0
last report 65.2
revised -

Dec 30 10:00 AM
Help-Wanted Index Nov
report -
briefing.com 38
market 37
last report 37
revised -

[UpInArms]

18. PMI at 61.2

10:01am 12/30/04 U.S. DEC. CHICAGO PMI AT 61.2 VS. 63.1 EXPECTED

but the cheerleaders' headline reads:

BULLETIN>> CHICAGO PURCHASING INDEX POSTS SMALL DECLINE

[UpInArms]

20. dribbling out the PMI details

Chicago-area business gauge shows slower growth

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38351.4226084028-830557491&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The Chicago Purchasing Managers index was at 61.2 percent in December, the group said Thursday. Readings above "50" denote business expansion in the area, although the average of a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch was for 63.1 percent this month. The employment sub-index showed contraction, falling to 49.1 percent.

10:10am 12/30/04 DOLLAR SLIDES TO SESSION LOWS ON SOFT CHICAGO PMI

10:05am 12/30/04 CHICAGO PMI EMPLOYMENT READING AT 49.1%

[54anickel]

23. Ewww, that employment reading isn't very promising, is it? Tough for

consumers in a consumer-based economy ( isn't it 2/3) to consume without a friggen job.

[UpInArms]

45. more PMI details

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B67EF6E5D%2D0DE8%2D47C8%2D8CB4%2DF400CB8F1C5B%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- A contraction in hiring was partly behind the slower pace of business growth in and around Chicago this month, the latest Chicago Purchasing Managers index, released on Thursday, showed.

The PMI stood at 61.2 percent compared with 65.2 percent in November.

Despite the setback, several economists said average readings over the past several months show that business health in this still largely industrial region remains relatively strong.

"While the December index is lower than those for October and November, it is still quite elevated, as are the new orders and production sub-indexes, providing evidence that the manufacturing sector is still enjoying solid upward momentum," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist with MFR Inc.

The report is a diffusion index, measuring the breadth of activity across companies. Readings over 50 percent indicate that more than half of respondents said business is better or the same.

The barometer has been above "50" for 20 straight months.

But economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch thought December's slowdown would be less pronounced. Their average forecast was for 63.1 percent. See Economic Calendar and Forecasts.

<snip>

"A large share of manufacturers is still facing high input costs, despite a decline from the previous month's reading. These price pressures will have one of two outcomes -- stronger inflation, if manufacturers are able to pass on high input costs, or weaker industry profitability, which will likely limit hiring," said Kasie Blanchette, an economist with research firm Economy.com.

"Given the significant decline in employment in December, manufacturers may be becoming reluctant to hire due to high input costs."

...more...

Ewwww - inflation or limited hiring - nice choices :eyes:

[54anickel]

49. Decisions, decisions...Either way, our standard of living is headed for

the toilet.

[UpInArms]

13. SEC eyes J.P. Morgan role in Canary trades

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7F71E6BB%2D5C99%2D4A48%2DB464%2D6C222DD9214A%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is eyeing J.P. Morgan Chase's role in helping finance hedge fund Canary Capital Partners' improper trading in mutual fund shares, according to a published report Thursday.

The SEC has taken testimony from employees at J.P. Morgan (JPM: news, chart, profile), which extended up to $150 million in credit to Canary, the hedge fund at the core of the fund-industry scandal, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, which represents J.P. Morgan, said in a memo to bank executives that, while it doesn't believe bank employees knew of the improper trading, regulators may assert that the bank should have known that Canary and principal executive Edward Stern "at least engaged" in rapid trading of fund shares, the Journal said.

A spokeswoman for J.P. Morgan reportedly said the bank at the time had no reason to believe that Canary, its related entities or Stern had taken part in any illegal activity.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. Dollar Set for Longest Decline Since Louvre Accord

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=amNOSFTVuqKk&refer=us

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is set for the longest annual losing streak since 1987, when Group of Seven finance ministers met in Paris to end a three-year slide in the currency.

The Federal Reserve's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index has retreated 6.2 percent this year after dropping in the previous two. The index began a three-year drop in 1985, when G-7 ministers met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed a weaker dollar was ``desirable.'' The group met at the Louvre in 1987 and decided a further drop ``could damage'' world growth.

The dollar is being buffeted by record current account and fiscal deficits, less appetite among foreign investors for U.S. assets and comments from Federal Reserve and Treasury officials suggesting they favor a weaker dollar, said James McCormick, head of currency strategy at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The dollar is near a record low versus the euro after rallying earlier this year as the Fed prepared to increase interest rates.

``The real lesson is to listen to policy makers and the U.S. is saying that they're comfortable as long as the dollar weakens in an orderly way,'' said McCormick, who is based in London. ``Unless you see a meaningful change in fiscal policy in the U.S. or a meaningful turn in the current account, the dollar will continue to go down.''

Lehman, the most accurate overall forecaster of exchange rates last quarter, predicts the dollar will weaken to 90 yen and $1.40 per euro within 12 months. The dollar traded at 103.76 yen and $1.3620 per euro at 10:04 a.m. in London, according to electronic trading system EBS.

MUCH more...

[54anickel]

19. Oh my! Missed this little gem at the end...

snip>

``We remain bears because of the current-account deficit,'' said O'Neill. ``For the dollar to really, really stabilize you'd have to see the deficit go down to about 3 percent of gross domestic product.'' The third-quarter deficit is equivalent to 5.6 percent of the nation's $11.8 trillion economy.

:wow: A 2.6 percent of GDP drop is required! More tax cuts crys the Chimp!

[RawMaterials]

27. Dollar slides on manufacturing activity in Chicago area By Kate Gibson

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar lost ground in the wake of disappointing data in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Against the euro, the U.S. currency was at $1.3623, down 0.1 percent. The greenback was off 0.58 percent against Japan's currency, at 103.14 yen.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/marketPulse.asp?doctype=-1&scid=0&siteid=mktw&mp=1

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. help-wanted index matches 4-decade low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38351.4167741782-830557265&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. help-wanted index dipped a point to 36 in November, matching a four-decade low, the Conference Board said Thursday. Help-wanted advertising in major U.S. daily newspapers has declined in six of the nine U.S. regions in the past three months. "Job growth continues to be sluggish," said board economist Ken Goldstein. However, Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw said the index "does not appear to be providing any useful information" about the labor market at this time.

10:00am 12/30/04 U.S. HELP-WANTED INDEX MATCHES 4-DECADE LOW

10:00am 12/30/04 U.S. NOV. HELP-WANTED INDEX FALLS 1 POINT TO 36

[54anickel]

22. Protecting yourself from a housing slump

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6765475/

snip>

Even if the worries of a nationwide housing bubble are overblown, it's prudent for people living in the hottest markets to prepare for the possibility that prices will flatten out or fall in 2005. :eyes:

snip>

Preparing for a downturn is a bit like boarding up your windows ahead of a hurricane that never strikes, if you're lucky. Here's what experts advise:

* Make sure you can cover your mortgage payments and other unavoidable expenses for six months even if the main breadwinner is laid off. That will save you from having to sell your house to raise cash in a down market, says Laurence J. Kotlikoff, a Boston University economist. One way to increase your flexibility is to arrange for the biggest possible home equity line of credit now — while your house value is still high and banks are still accommodating. But don't actually use the line. It's there to be tapped in an emergency.

* Save more and borrow less. Americans' personal savings rate has dropped to just 0.2% of disposable income, a near-record low. Many people feel they don't need to save money because zooming house prices are doing their saving for them. But much of that paper wealth could be blown away if house prices fall. So people need to save the old-fashioned way — by not spending. And don't borrow against your house to invest in stocks. If the stocks tumble, you will still have to pay back the loans. By reducing debt now, you can avert having to sell your house at a loss if your cash flow dries up.

snip>

In a perfect world, people would be able to insure themselves against falling house prices. Yale's Shiller has long advocated the creation of futures and options linked to indexes of house prices in specific markets. Using those instruments as hedges, insurers could offer policies that would then pay off if prices in a policyholder's neighborhood fell. On Dec. 3 the Chicago Mercantile Exchange agreed with Macro Securities Research, where Shiller is chief economist, to look into creating house-price futures. But that's a long-term fix.

Goes well with today's toon. Seems out economy has evolved from manufacturing to service to finance. Guess the US is nothing but an oversized world bank and insurance company.

more...

[RawMaterials]

24. more blather 10 am

10:00AM : Major indices hold steady at improved levels as investors continue to sort through a limited amount of market moving news... Early gains have been most prevalent in semiconductor and airline, with the latter lifting higher at the expense of cheaper oil prices ($42.77/bbl -$0.87)... Financial, transportation, retail, utility, and networking have also traded higher... Showing weakness have been energy, biotech, drug, materials, and telecom services...

Separately, Chicago PMI for the month of December just came in at 61.2 (consensus 63.0) while a November Help-Wanted Index came in at 36 (consensus 37)... Neither report, however, has had much impact on stocks as the indices have barely budged...NYSE Adv/Dec 1473/1090, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1410/963

http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

[54anickel]

25. Commodities lure funds investors

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4cc1c7a4-5906-11d9-89a5-00000e2511c8.html

Pension and mutual funds are increasing their exposure to commodities markets as they seek to diversify their portfolios, attracted by the strong returns provided by energy and metals markets over the past few years.

Heather Shemilt, managing director of commodity marketing at Goldman Sachs, said that the amount tracking commodity indices had risen from about $15bn in mid-2003 to about $40bn at the end of 2004. Ninety per cent of this injection of cash came from pension funds.

snip>

Goldman Sachs estimates that the returns on the GSCI have averaged about 12 per cent a year since 1970, whilst returns from key equity and bond indices are between 8.5 and 11 per cent over the same period.

Ms Shemilt said the GSCI had attracted close to $30bn in funds tracking the index. Other commodity indices including the Reuters Commodity Research Bureau and the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index have attracted about $10bn between them.

“That is an incredible increase in funds flowing into commodity indices, considering it took eight years for the GSCI to get its first $3bn,” said Ms Shemilt. The GSCI was first open for investment in 1991. The increased interest from pension funds over the past 18 months has coincided with a period in which oil prices were on a record-breaking run in nominal terms, culminating in a peak of more than $55 a barrel.

more...

[RawMaterials]

26. Updates, advisories and surprises

Castle Energy posts Q4 loss of $13,000 (9:17 AM ET) NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Castle Energy Corp.(CECX: news, chart, profile)reported a loss of $13,000, or breakeven on a per share basis, for the fourth quarter, wider than its year-ago equivalent loss of $862,000, or 13 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter totaled $596,000. The stock closed Wednesday at $12.65, down 1.9 percent.

Luby's Inc. reports narrowed Q1 loss (8:45 AM ET) NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Luby's Inc.(LUB: news, chart, profile)on Thursday reported a first-quarter net loss of $1.2 million, or 5 cents a share, versus last year's wider loss of $4.5 million, or 20 cents a share. The company said its net loss from continuing operations amounted to 3 cents a share. On that basis, results were in line with the Thomson First Call-derived estimate. Sales for the period increased to $70.3 million from $67.4 million in last year's first quarter. The analyst's consensus view was for sales of $67.7 million. Shares closed down 5 cents to $7.75 Wednesday.

Newport sees Q4 pro forma earnings of 7-10c per share (8:43 AM ET) NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Newport Corp.(NEWP: news, chart, profile)said it expects pro forma earnings to 7 to 10 cents per share in the fourth quarter, a range that it said is consistent with its previous indications. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call is for a profit of 9 cents per share in the December period. The company sees sales of between $100 million and $103 million in the quarter with its orders exceeding sales. It anticipates recording non-cash charges of roughly $65.5 million in the period from goodwill asset impairment and restructuring activities. Including the charge, Newport expects a loss of $1.54 to $1.60 per share for the quarter. The stock closed Wednesday at $14.02, down 1.3 percent.

[54anickel]

28. Hedge Funds May Falter and Lloyds May Be Sold

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_lynn&sid=aRE3C8h4.I0I

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- It's appropriate at this time of the year to recall one of Sir Winston Churchill's remarks: ``I always avoid prophesying beforehand, because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place.''

That should be nailed to the desk of every economist, broker or journalist tempted by the turning of the year to offer some predictions for the next 12 months. It is risky territory.

That said, this column can claim modest success in 2004: five hits and three misses.

Here are the ones that were on target: Lazard LLC went for an initial public offering; hedge funds started listing/selling themselves; commodity prices boomed; the Greek economy, helped by the Olympics, was one of the fastest growing in Europe; and plasma screen TV's moved into the mass market.

Still, I would rather forget saying: Volkswagen AG might merge with France's PSA Peugeot Citroen; new media would make a comeback: and Spain would join the G-8, making it the G-9.

Nevertheless, here are eight predictions for Europe in 2005.

more...

[RawMaterials]

29. USDA rule to end Canadian beef ban

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE845AF27%2D741C%2D4DD6%2D9690%2DCB98116E6C85%7D&siteid=mktw

Restaurants to benefit from higher supply, lower prices

About 2 million head of cattle will flow into the U.S. in the first year of the new designation for Canada, the department estimated.

Good news for restaurants

The ending of the ban is welcome for restaurants and food companies, which could pay less for beef as more becomes available, analysts said. Canadian cattle made up about 7 percent of the U.S. herd before the ban.

Great now i can speed up my mad cow, and maybe forget about whats relay going on in the country and world around me.

[54anickel]

31. Heh, check out the straight line down on the buck at 10:00 ET

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 80.69 Change -0.28 (-0.35%)

Settle 80.97 Settle Time 23:35

Open 80.73 Previous Close 80.97

High 80.98 Low 80.69

Last tick: 2004-12-30 10:05:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[RawMaterials]

34. The 2 year chart is even funnier

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax
down down down

[54anickel]

36. Yep, and any day now we'll see the lagging effect on the trade deficit -

NOT!

[RawMaterials]

41. for that to work you have to actually make something other

country want beside the dollar, and now no one wants the dollar what the
counterfeiters to do. oops i mean the federal reserve

[54anickel]

32. Venture capital goes up

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2004-12-29-vc-usat_x.htm

SAN FRANCISCO — Reflecting the tech industry's recovery, venture-capital investing is ending its first up year since the boom ended in 2000.
Venture capitalists, who invest in young businesses on behalf of pensions and other institutions, plowed an estimated $20 billion into start-ups this year, say preliminary figures from the authoritative MoneyTree Survey. That's up from $18.7 billion in 2003, and it's the first annual increase in four years.

"We clearly have turned the corner," says Tracy Lefteroff of PricewaterhouseCoopers, which tracks VC investing for the survey.

This year's total would be far less than the record $106 billion in 2000, but the annual gain is a bullish sign for the broader economy. Start-ups, especially in tech, depend on VCs for money to develop innovations that eventually create most new jobs.

Lefteroff says 2005 could be another strong year. "That number could go up," he says.

more...

[54anickel]

33. Canada Finds Suspected Case of Mad Cow

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041230/madcow_canada_2.html

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada on Thursday said it had found a suspected new case of mad cow disease, although the United States said it would not change plans to resume limited Canadian cattle imports after a devastating 20-month ban.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency said the 10-year-old dairy cow had not entered the human or animal feed systems. Final test results will be ready in the next three to five days.

Ottawa announced the news one day after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it planned to reopen the border on March 7 for the import of Canadian cattle under 30 months of age.

A USDA official said the new suspected case is not expected to affect those plans.

Last month, the United States announced a suspected case of mad cow disease but it turned out to be a false alarm.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Fannie Mae Plans $5 Billion Stock Sale

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35283-2004Dec29.html

snip>

The preferred stock sale, the single largest amount of equity capital ever raised by the company, would cure Fannie's immediate problem of being "significantly under-capitalized" for regulatory purposes, a designation given to Fannie last week after the Securities and Exchange Commission's chief accountant told the company to restate its financial results, effectively wiping out $9 billion in capital.

On its own, however, the preferred stock sale would not increase capital enough to achieve a 30 percent surplus over Fannie's required minimum capital level. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Fannie's regulator, ordered the higher capital levels in September because of what it said were accounting problems and internal control weaknesses.

snip>

Fannie chose to issue the preferred stock through what is known as a "144a" offering, in which only sophisticated institutions or wealthy investors are allowed to buy the stock. Such offerings are exempt from the time-consuming and costly process of registering the shares with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in which the terms and potential risks to ordinary investors are outlined in great detail in a formal prospectus. A 144a offering has the benefit of speed, allowing Fannie to show its regulator and the public that it has ready access to capital.

In a 144a, investors would probably include large mutual fund companies, banks, pension funds, large endowment funds or other institutional investors.

Groshans said a 144a offering this large is unusual but not unheard of. Fannie has good relationships with all the big Wall Street investment banks, and there will be no shortage of buyers, he predicted. According to Bloomberg data, Fannie's sale will be the largest single preferred stock sale in three years.

more...

[54anickel]

37. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rises After Manufacturing Index Drops

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aYNUaRj14zVM&refer=us

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose the most in four weeks after an industry report showed manufacturing in the Chicago area slowed more than forecast.

Signs of weakness in manufacturing may help keep the Federal Reserve from accelerating the pace of interest-rate increases, creating demand for Treasuries after a slump pushed yields to a three-week high, said some debt strategists.

``The market has sold off to some pretty attractive levels,'' James Caron, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Merrill Lynch & Co., the word's largest securities firm. Merrill is recommending investors buy U.S. government debt.

The 4 1/4 percent note due in November 2014 increased about 1/2, or $5 per face amount, to 99 7/8 as of 10:26 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield fell 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.27 percent. The yield was 4.07 percent on Dec. 15, and reached as high as 4.34 percent yesterday. Caron said the yield may finish next year at 4.10 percent. It ended 2003 at 4.25 percent.

Price moves may be exaggerated by lower than average trading. Kevin Rusch, head of U.S. Treasury trading at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said he was spending his time reviewing traders's year-end results.

more...

[54anickel]

38. Sorta Optimistically Pessimistic for 2005 (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty123004.html

snip>

- Peter Schiff of EuroPacific Capital quotes Chris Dialynas, who is a managing director at PIMCO, who has written an essay entitled "Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind." To quote Mr. Schiff, "In deadly serious terms, the paper argues that America's Asian creditors should forgive a portion of the debts owed to them by the U.S. government in exchange for the U.S. government imposing what amounts to a broad based austerity program, resulting in a substantial decline in American living standards. The paper further proposes that America's creditors would agree to this restructuring because in its absence, their eventual losses would be far greater, as the U.S. government would have no choice but to default on its sovereign debt.

"This raises the obvious question of what credit rating PIMCO believes U.S. government debt actually deserves? A triple A rating basically implies a zero probability of default. Since this paper argues that default is all but inevitable, it would imply that not only should U.S. sovereign debt not be AAA rated, but that it should fall into the category of junk."

Congratulations, Alan Greenspan! You took an America we were all proud of, and turned us into a bankrupt nation where our bonds are so worthless that they are junk bonds on the verge of default. And congratulations, Congress, which said or did nothing to stop, or even slow down, the idiocy. And congratulations, news media, who were so ignorant and stupid that they did not raise the alarm, as was their damn function. And congratulations, school system, which teaches that this is all correct, and special congratulations, universities, who actually make it their business to teach this ridiculous economic theory to the virtual exclusion of Austrian economics! It is a sad story of failure, failure, failure all around.

- Kurt Richebächer writes, "Just consider that the dollar has 'only' fallen 8.3% the past year, but it translates into a $124 billion loss for foreign stockholders! (And that's regardless of whether their stocks are up or down!). How long will foreign investors stand losses like that? How long would you? If the dollar keeps slipping, foreigners will start dumping their U.S. investments - selling for any price they can get. The flood of unwanted shares will utterly destroy stock prices. The major indexes will hit lows not seen in decades! And the money people have in stocks or bonds will vanish."

So how long can this go on? Well, Mr. Richebächer has looked at the evidence, has looked at the historical precedents, and after running the data through his gigantic brain and his years of experience, figures that "If history is any guide, this dollar crisis could last seven to nine years." And I think so too, and probably much longer than that, much as I never regained by teenage glory, which was a hell of a lot longer ago than some stinking seven to nine years, and Rome has never regained her glory after 1,600 years.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Euro Trash - Even drug dealers are giving up on the dollar.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2111504/

The dollar's decline against the euro shows no sign of ending. Clearly, currency traders have made a long-term judgment about the relative value of the currencies of the Old and New Worlds. That sounds bad enough. But now there are signs that we're losing some of the most devoted fans of the greenback: drug dealers, Russian oligarchs, and black-market traffickers of all kinds.

James Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, whose animadversions about the dollar and other subjects are as droll as they are pricey, highlighted the latest indignities to befall the once-mighty dollar in his Dec. 17 issue. (Alas, it's not available on the Web.)

People the world over—central banks, companies, and individuals—like to hold the dollar. It's stable, liquid, easily convertible, and never goes out of style. The dollar is popular in the official global economy—the money that changes hands through computer terminals, checks, and wire transfers. But it has also been extremely popular in the world's vast cash economy. For American tourists, Chinese smugglers, Ukrainian arms dealers, and African dictators, the dollar has long been the currency of choice. The fearful and shady, those who subsist on tourism, and residents of countries with unstable domestic currencies love the greenback. Citing Federal Reserve estimates, Grant writes that "between 55% and 70% of the $703 billion of U.S. currency outstanding circulates outside the 50 states."

The United States benefits greatly from the fact that the dollar is the world's reserve currency. Many of the $100 bills circulating throughout the globe are essentially loans that we never have to pay back. Americans use them to buy goods, services, or other currencies. But many of those bills never return to our shores to be redeemed for anything we make or produce. Instead, they stay under mattresses in Bogotá, circulate in Iraq, and are stashed in bank accounts around the world.

But among a subset of global cash connoisseurs, the dollar is losing ground to the euro—and it has nothing to do with concerns over U.S. multilateralism. First, the euro zone has been expanding with the addition of new countries and the continued integration between Eastern and Western Europe. So there are simply more people who accept and use euros now. Since 2002, the growth rate of euros in circulation has far outpaced that of dollars. Add in the euro's recent strength against the dollar, and the case for Eastern Europeans and euro-neighbors to use euros becomes more compelling. In the 1990s, the dollar was remarkably popular in Russia, where residents had long been deprived of coveted Western imports. But between January 2002 and August 2004, Grant notes, the percentage of private Russian currency transactions employing the dollar fell from 94.1 percent to 84 percent while the euro's share rose from nothing to about 15 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

40. U.S. Businesses Overseas Threatened by Rising Anti-Americanism

http://us.oneworld.net/article/view/100599/1/

WASHINGTON, D.C., Dec 29 (OneWorld) - The Bush administration's foreign policy may be costing U.S. corporations business overseas--according to a new survey of 8,000 international consumers released this week by the Seattle-based Global Market Insite (GMI) Inc.

Brands closely identified with the U.S., such as Marlboro cigarettes, America Online (AOL), McDonald's, American Airlines, and Exxon-Mobil are particularly at risk. GMI, an independent market research company, conducted the survey in eight countries December 10-12 with consumers over the internet.

One third of all consumers in Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, and the United Kingdom said that U.S. foreign policy, particularly the "war on terror" and the occupation of Iraq, constituted their strongest impression of the United States.

Twenty percent of respondents in Europe and Canada said they consciously avoided buying U.S. products as a protest against those policies. That finding was consistent with a similar poll carried out by GMI three weeks after Bush's November election victory.

"Unfortunately, current American foreign policy is viewed by international consumers as a significant negative, when it used to be a positive," according to Dr. Mitchell Eggers, GMI's chief operating officer and chief pollster.

more...

Didn't BeezleBush recently make some statement about how making enemies and pissing folks off in general is a good thing? Not in quite such harsh terms of course. More evidence that his master plan to destroy our nation is working.

[54anickel]

42. Homeland Insecurity

http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0452/ridgeway.php

The American empire goes for broke—and it could be heading that way


WASHINGTON, D.C. Running below the surface of the year-end self-congratulatory assertions of American supremacy (as in Monday's Washington Times: "The world really is becoming more 'American' ") are warnings, often ignored, of our decline. The steady loss of the dollar against the euro is one. The spiraling trade deficit is another.

And in the past weeks, there were two serious economic signs signaling momentous change, if not outright decline.

The first concerns China's invasion of Canadian oil fields, heretofore a U.S. energy fiefdom. The second came in the form of an all-but-hidden report from the Department of Agriculture that America, the breadbasket of the world, is now a net importer of food.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OIL If the half-dozen planned projects worth $2 billion go through, Canada, our No. 1 energy supplier, could end up sending as much as one-third of its total oil exports to China. One project would give the Chinese a 49 percent interest in a 720-mile-long pipeline running from Alberta to British Columbia. The Chinese are also eyeing an expansion of a second Canadian pipeline system, and they're discussing gaining an interest in companies with oil leases.

Much of this interest centers on extracting oil from oil sands. In the U.S., prospects for an oil sands development during the energy crisis of the early 1970s never got off the ground. It was discussed along with coal gasification as a possible alternative to what the industry at the time insisted were declining reserves. But when prices were deregulated and rose, along with profitability, all the talk about coal gas and oil sands died down. For the big international oil companies, oil sands historically have been dicey because of the high development cost, and hence reduced profitability. However, as Kang Wu of the East-West Center in Honolulu told The New York Times last week, "For China, it is foremost about securing supply and secondly about profits." And that is one reason China is willing to go so far abroad.

more...

[RawMaterials]

43. Comex to close early

Gold and silver close about 130pm

http://www.321gold.com/911/tradinghours.html

[54anickel]

44. Robert D. Novak: It's now the neocons vs. Rumsfeld (Heh, let the

feeding frenzy begin! Gotta love watching the Repukes eat their young!

Apologies for disgracing the DU with the likes of Novak - but always like to see what the other side is up to. Looks like more distancing of PNAC from Rum-Dum.

http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=48856


IN THE bowels of the Pentagon, the colleagues and subordinates of Donald Rumsfeld were not upset by Republican senators who were sniping at him. Instead, they complained bitterly about a call for his removal by a private citizen with no political leadership position: William Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard. His position was, in effect, a declaration of war by the neoconservatives against the secretary of defense.

The capital's feeding frenzy over Rumsfeld's fate did not begin until Kristol's Dec. 12 op-ed column in The Washington Post. While critical senators did not get to the point of demanding Rumsfeld's removal, Kristol did. He said the troops in Iraq "deserve a better defense secretary than the one we have." A firm declaration by a prominent Republican activist turned journalist who is the clarion of neoconservatism counts for more than equivocation by U.S. senators.

Rumsfeld's civilian colleagues at the Pentagon are furious because they consider Kristol a manipulative political operative, critiquing the war in Iraq after years of promoting it. But his criticism has a broader base. Kristol long has called for big-government conservatism, which on the international sphere involves proactively pursuing democracy around the world. He and the other neocons do not want to be blamed for what has become a very unpopular venture in Iraq. Thus, it is important to get the word out now that the war in Iraq has gone awry because of the way Rumsfeld fought it.

Rumsfeld is often bracketed with the neocons, but that is incorrect. In a long political career that dates back to his election to Congress in 1962, he has not even been associated with the traditional conservative movement. In the run-up to the attack on Iraq, he was not aggressively pressing intervention by force of arms, but instead was shaping a military response to fit President Bush's command.

Rumsfeld did name Richard Perle, one of the foremost neocon voices calling for a change of regime in Baghdad, as chairman of the part-time Defense Policy Board. Also named to the board was Kenneth Adelman, an old friend of Rumsfeld's who is identified as a neocon. Adelman gained notoriety by promising that the conquest of Iraq would be a "cakewalk." Indeed, rejoicing over the quick rout of Saddam Hussein's army, Adelman wrote that cakewalk — a word always rejected by Rumsfeld — turned out to be a correct description.

more...

[54anickel]

46. Shades of the Dollar Standard

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/sennholz122904.html

snip>

Throughout the decades a few economists always were worried about the magnitude of the trade deficits and the vulnerability of the American dollar. But their fears proved to be unfounded because they underestimated the worldwide demand for dollars and the willingness of foreign investors and central bankers to trust and hold U.S. dollars. After all, until recently the deficits never exceeded three percent of GDP and Americans still were net creditors in their foreign accounts. By now, in 2004, the dollar standard has reached a stage in which not only a few economists but also some foreign creditors are beginning to question its future. The Federal government is swimming in an ocean of debt. In its first term the Bush administration increased the Federal debt by $2.2 trillion. Congress raised the Treasury debt ceiling three times, by $450 billion in 2002, by $984 billion in 2003, and by another $800 billion on November 19, 2004, to $8 trillion 184 billion. The ready willingness of Congress to finance such deficits is a clear indication of the political and ideological mold and make of most members of Congress and the public that elects them.

Foreign observers are drawing similar conclusions. The Bank of Japan with more than $800 billion in dollar obligations already announced its reluctance to increase its holding. China with dollar reserves exceeding $500 billion is laboring under “unsustainable U.S. trade deficits.” Asian banks altogether holding more than $2 trillion in American obligations are suffering hundred-billion dollar losses in terms of purchasing power. It is not surprising that the central banks of India and Russia as well as some Middle East investors have begun to sell dollar obligations.

According to some estimates, foreign banks and investors are holding some $9 trillion of U.S. paper assets. They are owning some 43 percent of U.S. Treasuries, 25 percent of American corporate bonds, and 12 percent of U.S. corporate equities. They obviously are suffering losses whenever the dollar falls against their respective currencies; even if they are pegged to the dollar they are incurring losses against all others that are rising.
The dollar standard surely would enter its third and final stage of disintegration if its holders would panic and start selling their American paper investments – their U.S. Treasuries, U.S. agencies, and corporate bonds and shares. The crash would be felt around the world and neither foreign sellers nor American authorities could be trusted to react rationally in the fear and noise of the crash. The scene could be similar to the political bedlam of the early 1930s.

There always is the hope that the primary creditors will act in concert and once again bail out the debtor. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China, and the Bank of England may decide to avert the unthinkable and support the dollar by mopping up huge quantities. The mopping would stabilize the situation once again by inflating and depreciating their own currencies; they would pass the depreciation losses on to their own nationals. Optimists in our midst are hoping for this scenario; they are convinced that the Bush administration will in time save the situation by balancing its budget and the Federal Reserve will allow interest rates to seek market levels. Such a policy would avert the dollar dilemma although it would lead to a painful recession forcing all economic factors to readjust to market conditions.

Pessimists in our midst cast doubt on such a scenario. They point not only to the host of legislators and regulators who cherish their position and power but also to public opinion and ideology which call for government favors. They are prepared to proceed on the present road and brace for the morrow. A few cynics even contend that a government facing a financial crisis of such magnitude is prone to divert public attention from its omnious path by embarking upon foreign adventures.

more...

[54anickel]

47. 11:59 ET numbers

Dow 10,832.00 +2.81 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,178.04 +1.04 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,214.92 +1.47 (+0.12%)
10-yr Bond 4.261% -0.061
30-yr Bond 4.871% -0.066
NYSE Volume 352,857,000
Nasdaq Volume 659,727,000

11:30AM: Equities trade with a tinge of caution as oil spikes to new session highs, but show enough resilience to keep a positive bias intact... A 1.6% rally in crude oil prices, which pushed the commodity above $43/bbl for the first time this morning, had pushed the indices to their lowest levels of the day, but a bullish bias has kept stocks in the plus column... Advancers on the NYSE continue to outpace decliners by a 16 to 13 margin while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a 15 to 12 advantage over declining issues...
Limited participation heading into the New Year, however, has volumes on both the Big Board and the Composite hovering at lower than usual levels... NYSE Adv/Dec 1654/1374, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1536/1283

11:00AM: Buyers continue to tiptoe through stocks this morning, as the broader averages still run in place above the flat line... On the Dow, components IBM (IBM 98.95 +0.77) and United Technologies (UTX 104.48 +0.52) continue to offset declines in Alcoa (AA 31.67 -0.22) and Pfizer (PFE 26.98 -0.28)... The latter has fallen after market research pointed to a 56% decline last week in Celebrex prescriptions while AA remains under pressure after Lehman Brothers cut its Q4 (Dec) and FY05 earnings estimates, citing margin pressures from higher costs and a weaker dollar...

Shares of Boeing (BA 51.64 -0.43), which opened higher after it received a $1.3 bln order for 10 of its 7E7 Dreamliners, has recently succumbed to profit taking as the stock has gained more than 10% in 2004 compared to the Dow's 3.6% gain...NYSE Adv/Dec 1702/1245, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1600/1124

[54anickel]

52. Adding the noon blather, then I've gotta run again

12:00PM : Market opens on a slightly higher note but continues to trade with lackluster conviction, as volatile oil prices, mixed economic data and limited corporate news leave little for investors to get excited about... Crude oil ($43.06/bbl -$0.58), which has failed to extend yesterday's 4.5% recovery effort, remains somewhat volatile and has again been a focal point for traders who have had very little in the way of any other market-moving issues...
Initial claims for unemployment came in slightly better than expected at 326K (consensus 335K), further supporting a strong labor market, while a Chicago PMI figure of 61.2 missed forecasts of 63.0 but had minimal impact on stocks... The latter reading, which has provided a lift to treasuries, keeping yields on the 10-year note below 4.30%, has validated ongoing expansion in the Midwest region but should pale in comparison to next week's ISM Index report, which will provide a better barometer of national manufacturing activity... Showing some modest strength midday have been airline, semiconductor, financial, retail, utility, and networking while materials, biotech, drug and telecom services have shown modest losses...

Meanwhile, the dollar has remained under pressure, using the Chicago PMI's disappointing employment component to give up all the previous day's gains against the euro (1.3622) and has pushed lower against the yen (103.12)... Separately, a November Help-Wanted Index reading of 36 basically matched expectations of 37) and has been viewed as a nonevent... NYSE Adv/Dec 1700 /1394, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1595/1278

[imabadman]

48. The overall market it flat

My positions are flat. It's been a boring morning.

I'm going to lunch.

[UpInArms]

50. PBGC to bail out United pilots' plan (privatizing profit/socializing debt)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD0CC069A%2D1B11%2D4F53%2D9E49%2D5E5DAAB3CA91%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. said Thursday that it will assume responsibility for the pension plan set up on behalf of United Airlines' pilots.

There are about $5.7 billion in benefit liabilities in the plan, with $2.9 billion of that amount underfunded.

The PBGC said it expects to be liable for $1.4 billion in guaranteed benefits, making this the third-largest clam in the 30-year history of the pension-insurance program. It's funded from insurance premiums collected from companies that sponsor pension plans.

"The PBGC will protect the pension benefits of United Airlines' pilots up to the limits set by law," said PBGC Executive Director Bradley Belt in a statement. "Retirees will continue to receive monthly benefit checks without interruption, and other pilots will receive benefits when they retire."

UAL Corp. (UALAQ: news, chart, profile), United's corporate parent, has been operating under Chapter 11 federal bankruptcy protection from creditors. It's on record as saying it would be best for the carrier's survival to terminate defined-benefit pensions before exiting Chapter 11. See story.

Belt said that PBGC reached the decision to back the pilots' pension plan after concluding that the beleaguered carrier could only afford to fund three of its four pension plans.

Under federal law, the maximum pension payout for participants age 65 in plans that end in 2004 is $44,386 a year.

...a bit more...

[54anickel]

51. Lovely, in the end doesn't that ulimately trickle down to you and me? n/t

[RawMaterials]

56. Its great private capitalism, corporate welfare n/m

[UpInArms]

53. (Dana perfumes) Job Cuts at Luzerne County Plant

http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=2747577

The end of the year means the end of their jobs for some workers at the New Dana Perfume Corporation plant in Luzerne County.

Workers at the plant in the Crestwood Industrial Park in Mountain Top confirmed some workers would not be coming back after today. The plant closing was announced last month.

Nearly 150 people work at the plant. There is no word how many will not be coming back.

...more...

guess we won't be "exporting" anything from that factory :eyes:

[54anickel]

54. Crude Oil Falls in New York After Surging on Saudi Explosion

Hmmm, I missed that explosion report yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=adhs4xb.WWIQ&refer=latin_america

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York fell on speculation that yesterday's 4.5 percent gain was an overreaction to initial reports of terrorist attacks in the capital of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter.

Oil facilities were unaffected by the attacks near the Interior Ministry in the capital. Oil in New York has averaged a record $41.47 a barrel this year as demand surged and unrest threatened shipments from oil-exporting nations. Prices also fell as warmer-than-normal weather in the eastern U.S. reduced heating- fuel consumption.

`The Saudi oil infrastructure is so dispersed that it would be a huge undertaking to put a dent in capacity,'' said Marshall Steeves, an analyst at Refco Group Inc. in New York. Yesterday's gain ``was due to concern that the explosion might signal a resurgence of militancy in the kingdom.''

Crude oil for February delivery fell 29 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $43.35 a barrel at 10:51 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has lost 22 percent since touching a record $55.67 on Oct. 25. Futures are up 33 percent this year, the third-biggest annual increase since futures began trading in 1983.

In London, the February Brent crude-oil futures contract rose $1.03, or 2.6 percent, to $40.20 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. The exchange, which was closed on Dec. 27 and Dec. 28, shut early yesterday. Brent futures have declined 23 percent since reaching $51.95 on Oct. 27, the highest since the contract began in 1988.

more...

[54anickel]

55. SEC queries Berkshire on finite insurance

OK, OK, now I've really got to run. ;-)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6B3AAA80-461B-4DD3-9B68-24F1C2B15026%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Berkshire Hathaway said Thursday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission asked for information about its sales of so-called nontraditional or loss-mitigation insurance.

Berkshire (BRKA: news, chart, profile), the insurance-focused holding company run by billionaire investing legend Warren Buffett, said its General Re unit, one of the world's top four reinsurers, was targeted by the SEC probe.

Berkshire and General Re will cooperate with the inquiry, the company added.

Berkshire is the latest insurer to be asked for information on nontraditional insurance, which is also known as finite insurance or reinsurance.

snip>

Regulators are trying to find out whether the products help firms improperly smooth earnings and bolster capital. Critics contend that the complex transactions can sometimes involve limited transfer of risk, making them look more like loans than insurance.

In some recent annual shareholder letters, Buffett has described these products as "retroactive" insurance.

more...

[UpInArms]

57. 2:14 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,839.91 +10.72 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,181.74 +4.74 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,216.46 +3.01 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 42.71 -0.51 (-1.18%)

NYSE Volume 544,115,000
Nasdaq Volume 969,790,000

2:00PM: Market continues to trade sideways as quiet pre-holiday trade adds to lackluster conviction... Volumes have slowed to their lowest levels of the week up to this point in the trading day (NYSE 523 mln, Nasdaq 934 mln) as market internals cling to a mildly bullish bias... The best performing sectors include agricultural products (+2.0%), health care facilities (+1.5%), airline (+1.1%), housing (+0.7%), brokerage (+0.6%) and semiconductor (+0.4%) while selling pressure has been most prevalent in steel (-5.5%) oil & gas drillers (-0.8%) and biotech (-0.3%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1878/1325, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1699/1320

1:30PM: More of the same as stocks continue to trade in a narrow range... Positive comments within financial (+0.3%) have left the sector holding onto modest gains... Fannie Mae (FNM 71.54 +1.16) has surged after the mortgage giant said late Wednesday that it has priced two preferred stock placements worth about $5 bln, about $1 bln more than previously estimated... Also trading higher has been smaller rival Freddie Mac (FRE 73.29 +0.60), which has exceeded its minimum capital requirements to remain compliant with regulators' conditions...

Other S&P financial constituents showing strength have been Sallie Mae (SLM 53.84 +0.34), which completed its privatization yesterday nearly four years ahead of schedule, and Bear Stearns (BSC 102.64 +0.81), which has filed a $12.9 bln shelf with the SEC...NYSE Adv/Dec 1832/1348, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1684/1312

1:00PM: While equities continue to hover around the unchanged mark, bonds remain near their highs of the session... Treasuries, which turned bullish following declines in the December Chicago PMI data, have held steady at current levels since digesting the report's various components...

Last trade 80.54 Change -0.43 (-0.53%)

Settle 80.97 Settle Time 23:35

Open 80.73 Previous Close 80.97

High 81.00 Low 80.54

Last tick: 2004-12-30 13:44:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[RawMaterials]

59. 2:30 EST More Blather

Market Update


2:30PM: Little change in the indices over the past half hour as gains remain moderate at best... With the metals markets closing early today, gold ($438.30/ounce +$1.30) has ended the year on a higher note, closing out 2004 up 5.4%, while the dollar decline continued and crude oil futures ($43.45/bbl -$0.19) ended the session lower... Unsatisfactory PMI data added enough pressure to the greenback in early trading to knock it down more 7.0% on the year against the euro...NYSE Adv/Dec 1970/1260, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1749/1292

[UpInArms]

58. Crude futures end 2004 at $43.45, up $33.7%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38351.5716086227-830561065&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures closed 2004 with a 33.7 percent gain with the contract for February delivery ending a mixed session at $43.45 a barrel, down 0.4 percent from the prior session. Oil has moved in a wide range, starting the year at $32.52 a barrel and hitting an all-time peak of $55.67 in late October on concerns about tight supplies heading into the northern hemisphere's heating season. Prices have since backed down amid signs of growing supplies and weaker fuel demand.

[RawMaterials]

60. well im getting out of work early so happy new year all. n/m

[UpInArms]

61. Happy New Year RawMaterials!

:hi:

:party:

[UpInArms]

62. U.S. stock funds add $21.3B in November

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38351.6115777778-830562034&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock funds took in $21.35 billion of fresh investor cash in November, up from $7.2 billion in October, according to an industry report. Bond funds netted $2 billion last month, less than the $3.57 billion they took in during October, the Investment Company Institute, the fund industry's main trade association, said Thursday.

[DoBotherMe]

63. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10,800.30 -28.89 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,178.34 +1.34 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,213.55 +0.10 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263% -0.059
NYSE Volume 828,702,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,404,319,000

Close: The indices hugged the flat line most of the session but closed mixed as a tepid day of trading was marked by mixed economic data and limited market-moving news... Initial jobless claims for the week that ended on Christmas kicked off the second to last day of trading for 2004... The Labor Department's weekly report showed an unexpected decline of 5K claims to 326K (consensus 335K) which further maintained robust growth in the labor market... Investors got a read on regional manufacturing activity shortly after the market opened, when December Chicago PMI came in at 61.2...
While the data came in slightly below economists' forecasts of 63.0, sellers remained on the sidelines in the equity market ahead of Monday's more significant national ISM survey, as any reading above 50 still signified growth... Bond traders, in contrast, upon digesting a disappointing decline to 49.1 (from a 16-year high of 60.8 in November) in the PMI's employment component prompted a knee-jerk reaction that reversed yesterday's losses and pushed treasuries to their highs of the session... The benchmark 10-year note closed up 15 ticks to yield 4.26%, almost exactly where it closed in 2003...

Lower bond yields helped homebuilding (+0.6%) while a sell off in oil prices helped lift the airline sector (+1.1%)... While crude oil ($43.45/bbl -$0.19) closed lower on the day, the commodity ended 2004 up more than 33% but 21% off its October high... Other sectors showing strength included retail, utility and financial, with the latter getting assistance from mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM 71.30 +0.92) and Freddie Mac (FRE 73.41 +0.72)... Technology was also strong, showing gains across the board, with much of the buying interest in networking (+0.6%) and software (+0.3%)...

[54anickel]

64. Hey, hey! DOW hung onto 10,800 by 6 nickels!!! Are the markets even

open tomorrow? Gotta lot of rallying to do if that Santa Rally to 11,000 is gonna come thru. HA!

[CabalPowered]

65. Happy New Year folks!!

Best of luck to all in 05'!

Closing out my euro long ticket for 300+ pip profit today. :D

[54anickel]

67. Smooth move there CabalPowered! And a Happy New Year to

you and everyone else!

:party: :toast: :beer: :headbang: :grouphug:

[UpInArms]

66. Dollar Trades Near Record Low; Demand for U.S. Assets May Wane

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aZQUMzcZjfQA&refer=japan

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a record low against the euro, heading for a third annual loss, on speculation foreign demand for U.S. financial assets is waning.

Bidding at yesterday's auction of two-year Treasury notes from investors including foreign central banks was the lowest in a year. The dollar is down 7.4 percent against the euro and 3.3 percent versus the yen this year, fueled by expectations the U.S. and Europe will refrain from halting its slide.

``Central banks have been the last buyers of dollars in town, and now that is slowly changing,'' said Paul Mackel, a currency strategist in London at ABN Amro Holding NV. ``For dollar sentiment this is negative. This was the last pillar of support for the dollar.'' Mackel forecasts the dollar will weaken to $1.43 per euro by the end of 2005.

The dollar traded at $1.3602 per euro at 8:09 a.m. in New York from $1.3606 late yesterday, according to electronic currency-trading system EBS. It fell to 103.69 yen from 103.86 yen. The U.S. currency yesterday slid to an all-time low of $1.3647 per euro.

``We've got a lot of momentum behind this weak dollar move,'' said Lara Rhame, a currency strategist in New York at Credit Suisse first Boston.

...more...

[54anickel]

68. Ugh! Lots of momentum behind the slide, hey? Wonderful...n/t