WP: Risks Cloud a Sunny Forecast: Job Picture Looking Up, Dollar Down

[DeepModem Mom]

Risks Cloud a Sunny Forecast
Job Picture Looking Up, Dollar Down

By Nell Henderson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 2, 2005; Page F01


The U.S. job market should improve steadily this year, while consumer inflation eases and oil prices decline -- all good news, that is, if nothing goes wrong with the sunny economic forecasts released in recent weeks by many private and government economists.

The economy should continue to expand at a pace that is "not too hot . . . not too cold . . . just right," Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, the St. Louis-based forecasting firm, wrote in a recent report to clients, lifting a line from the Goldilocks tale.

But, of course, forecasts often go awry.

"Lest we be too complacent about the future, we need only remember that the story ended with Goldilocks running screaming from the three bears' house," the firm said, citing several risks to its projections.

Even forecasts produced by the most advanced econometric models are essentially well-educated guesses about what is most likely to happen, based on past experience. And as such, they are subject to errors and surprises....


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40354-2005Jan1.html

[mhr]

1. Jobs Still Being Outsourced, Jobs Still Being Lost Domestically

What great job economy are these folks dreaming about?

Unemployed 55 months and counting here.

[xchrom]

2. ok -- i forgot where i read this now, doh...

but isn't there speculation that job growth isn't that rosy?