STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 3 January

[ozymandius]

Monday January 3, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 17 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 23 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 77 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1138
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 31, 2004

Dow... 10,783.01 -17.29 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,175.44 -2.90 (-0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,211.92 -1.63 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.22% -0.05 (-1.10%)
Gold future... 438.40 +1.40 (+0.32%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.08 Change +0.23 (+0.28%)

Dollar May Drop to Record at Start of 2005, Survey Indicates

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=abiPP6E9ptFA&refer=home

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to a record against the euro in the first week of 2005 on speculation the European Central Bank won't try to halt the 12-nation currency's advance, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 58 traders, strategists and investors from Tokyo to New York.

About 70 percent of the participants polled on Dec. 30 and Dec. 31 advised selling the dollar against the euro, the most in more than a month, up from 60 percent a week ago. Versus the yen, 50 percent said to sell the dollar, up from 43 percent.

The dollar was the worst-performing major currency against the euro in 2004, losing 7.7 percent. The euro's advance will continue as long as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet indicates he isn't ready to sell the currency or lower interest rates, said Alex Patelis, a currency strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co.

<snip>

``The market is coming back full force this week and the sentiment is to try to keep pushing the dollar down since the ECB is not doing anything to put a stop on the euro's rise,'' said Melendez. He advised selling the dollar against the euro and the yen this week. A dollar's drop past $1.3870 per euro may spur further losses to $1.40 in coming weeks, he added.

...more...

Another good year, providing the dollar doesn't sink too fast, rates stay reasonable

http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/bal-bz.ambrose02jan02,1,2711455.column?coll=la-utilities-business-money

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

excerpt:

One of the more worrisome is the weak dollar, blamed on concerns over the huge U.S. trade and budget deficits. Since peaking in early 2002, the dollar has fallen about 28 percent against major currencies. Just last week, the dollar hit another record low against the euro.

On the upside, a weak dollar boosts exports because U.S.-made products become less expensive for foreign consumers. It also makes imports pricier, so American consumers are more likely to shop at home. As demand for U.S. products rises, companies here will be able to hire more workers and invest in new equipment, and the economy will strengthen.

For those reasons, most investors would be comfortable with the dollar gradually declining further, which would follow expectations. But a sharp, sudden drop could spell serious trouble.

Market strategists question how long foreign investors will be willing to put money into the U.S. markets if they end up getting burned when they convert dollars into their own currency. And what happens if foreign lenders tire of buying up U.S. Treasury bonds, whose value drops along with the dollar?

"We might be forced by events to raise our interest rates to continue to attract capital. And it might come at a time when we are not really inclined to raise them at too fast a pace," said David Darst, an investment strategist with Morgan Stanley in New York.

...more...

and now a "word from our sponsors" - the cheerleading section:

DAILY COMMODITY MARKET COMMENTARY

Financials: Bonds broke through the initial target of 111 yesterday as we expected on the near term. Traders that have not been working the Put Options since the 113 -114 level should be waiting on the sidelines and hoping for a rally to build long term Put Positions in June. Those with profits on the Puts should lighten up the positions and re-enter on a bounce up to 112-15. The bottom of the 5 month trading range should be tested soon and traders should be looking for rallies to build long term Put positions. Major long term top being formed around the 113 to 114 level as rates move higher, Oil prices peaking, and the economy rebounding. Stock Index's have stalled around resistance of 1215 in the S&P and 10,900 in the Dow, traders should be looking for the markets to plow those numbers before the end of the week. The Index's are trying to tell us that something good is around the corner maybe Oil prices are ready for a free fall or hopefully some positive news out of Iraq. As we have been recommending for the past few weeks we are watching for interday breaks to get long futures. Traders looking to play the Stock Index's should be using tight stops and not be afraid to get out quickly. The S&P 500's breakout out looks incredible on the monthly charts and should not be under estimated going into next year. Near term resistance is 1215 in the S & P and breaking there should target 1225 to 1250. The Crb Index stopped us out yesterday at the 284 level and traders that believe the Crb Index is overpriced at 23 year highs should look to sell the Feb. Crb Index at 283 or better this morning. Multi year highs have been established near 290 and traders should be looking at long term puts on rallies. The end to the historical bull run in commodity prices is near. When the U.S. Dollar gets a solid footing watch the Metals and other commodities begin to react violently on the downside. The 23 year high near the 290 level should not be tested for many years to come. After, an almost strait climb higher over the last 3 years we would be looking for the market to correct severely going into next year.

Currencies: Watch for the British Pound to take out the $1.90 support level on the near term. Closing below there should target the $1.85 level or a deeper correction. The Dollar continues to hold around the 81 cent level and traders should be looking to build long postions from these historical lows. We are looking for the market to bottom off these numbers either a blow off move down or a v-shaped bottom to emerge. Watch for the market to move quickly up to the 83 to 83.5 cent level by the end of the week. Futures traders should continue to look at the Euro and be selling above the $1.34 mark and looking for an objective of $1.27 before the end of January. Massive tops in foreign currencies have started to forge and being led by the Aussie, C. Dollar and British Pound, traders should now be focused on Euro to break next. Traders should be looking at March Put Options across all of the foreign currencies. Rates are moving higher and watch the Dollar follow interest rates. A weak Dollar will cause the global economy to unravel and traders that believe that will happen should look to buy assets at 16 year highs like Gold ( we will not). Traders should be expecting the other currencies to begin some violent corrections soon.

...more...

and back to reality

Forex - US dollar sustains gains vs yen, euro in thin trading in Singapore

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1104733508-9e32d306-04515

SINGAPORE (AFX) - The US dollar held onto gains against the yen and the euro in thin trading in Singapore with major markets such as Japan and Australia still closed for the New Year holidays, dealers said

At 2.00 pm (0600 GMT), the dollar stood at 103.08 yen from 102.45 earlier, while one euro was buying 1.3442 usd compared with 1.3527 earlier

According to United Overseas Bank (UOB), the strengthening of the yen was in part due to the recovery of the euro/yen from record levels as market participants took profits. Apart from that, UOB believes news that Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) indicated that they refrained from market intervention for nine months despite the dollar reaching a new low of 101.8 yen in early December had also contributed to the rise

"Despite renewed comments on the possibility of intervention over the New Year holidays, some expect the MoF would not intervene unless the dollar/yen declines to sub-100 on a sustained basis," UOB said in a research report. The euro, meanwhile, is expected to test new highs amid persisting concerns over the US fiscal and trade deficits

"With players remaining focused on the US structural imbalances which would probably involve a weaker US dollar as part of the adjustment process, the US dollar is expected to resume its downward trend, with euro/dollar on sight to test 1.3750 this week," UOB said

...more...

Great 'toon, Ozy!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

6. I was looking for an article about Japan's threat to dump the dollar

if the U.S. does not begin to get its fiscal house in shape. The crux of the story goes that Japan could begin to dump treasury bonds and its massive dollar stockpile even if it means undermining its own currency. Reason: Japan believes that current massive borrowing by the U.S. may jeopardize its long-term global economic position.

Has anyone seen this?

[UpInArms]

8. Ozy, I couldn't find the article that you refer to

do you remember when you read it? That might narrow my search :)

I did find this commentary by a right-winger - guess we're not the only ones noticing that something is amiss -

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett200412010812.asp

excerpt:

But lately, a considerable portion of foreign investment has been by foreign central banks in U.S. Treasury securities. From 1999 to 2003, these rose to $249 billion from $44 billion. The figure for this year will undoubtedly be higher than last year since foreign central bank purchases of Treasurys were already at $202 billion just through June.

As a consequence, foreign ownership of the U.S. national debt has risen to $1.8 trillion or half of the privately held debt. A decade ago, foreigners owned just over 20 percent of the debt.

The Japanese are the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, with a total $720 billion in September, up from $317 billion just four years earlier. The Chinese have become the second largest holders, with $174 billion worth, a sharp increase from $62 billion in September 2000.

The reason for these large purchases of Treasury securities is that the Japanese and Chinese have been trying to prevent their currencies from rising against the dollar. They have done this by using their own currencies to buy dollars, which are then invested in Treasury securities.

<snip>

There is growing evidence that foreigners are getting weary of financing the U.S. budget deficit. The Chinese and Japanese are both talking about cutting back on Treasury purchases and diversifying more into euro-denominated assets. In order to continue selling its bonds, the Treasury will have to increase the interest rate it pays.

...more...

[ozymandius]

9. That comes very close to what I read.

I read it yesterday evening. It could have been in the Econ Issues forum. That forum would not load for me a few minutes ago.

The article was most striking because a Japanese minister was on record with scathing remarks about the the U.S.'s fiscal irresponsibility.

Thank you for looking! :hi:

[UpInArms]

14. you're welcome, Ozy!

I went to the economics forum - found some very interesting posts over there :D

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x13051

led to this article:

http://economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=3446249

excerpt:

Many American policymakers talk as though it is better to rely entirely on a falling dollar to solve, somehow, all their problems. Conceivably, it could happen—but such a one-sided remedy would most likely be far more painful than they imagine. America's challenge is not just to reduce its current-account deficit to a level which foreigners are happy to finance by buying more dollar assets, but also to persuade existing foreign creditors to hang on to their vast stock of dollar assets, estimated at almost $11 trillion. A fall in the dollar sufficient to close the current-account deficit might destroy its safe-haven status. If the dollar falls by another 30%, as some predict, it would amount to the biggest default in history: not a conventional default on debt service, but default by stealth, wiping trillions off the value of foreigners' dollar assets.

The dollar's loss of reserve-currency status would lead America's creditors to start cashing those cheques—and what an awful lot of cheques there are to cash. As that process gathered pace, the dollar could tumble further and further. American bond yields (long-term interest rates) would soar, quite likely causing a deep recession. Americans who favour a weak dollar should be careful what they wish for. Cutting the budget deficit looks cheap at the price.

[ozymandius]

19. Found it. It's a month-old article that may have been posted already.

Japan threatens huge dollar sell-off

Japan is warning the White House that there will be 'enormous capital flight' from the dollar if the Bush administration maintains its laissez-faire approach to the mounting currency crisis.
Tokyo fears that Japan's strongest economic recovery in a decade could be derailed by the sudden appreciation in the yen against the greenback.

-cut-

The criticism of President Bush's inaction, by a senior member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, will be taken as a veiled threat that Japan could start to sell off its multi-billion-dollar holdings of US Treasuries. 'The Japanese government is going to ask for a strong dollar policy; if it continues to fall, there would be enormous capital flight from the dollar,' said Kaoru Yosano, chairman of the LDP's policy council, adding that Japan would be calling on its fellow G7 governments to demand the US deal with the massive fiscal deficit that has helped to prompt the dollar's decline.

Yosano's remarks echoed a warning from a senior Japanese Ministry of Finance official that if the US does not push up interest rates to make the dollar more attractive, 'the one-way sentiment on the dollar will have a negative impact on the flow of capital into the US.' He added that Japan is urging its European counterparts to join a campaign of coordinated currency-market intervention, saying: 'If the dollar is depreciating, we should have coordinated action: that has already been communicated to my European counterparts.'

more...

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1366578,00.html

[UpInArms]

2. Lenovo billion-dollar PC clunker

http://ployer.com/archives/2005/01/lenovo_billiond.php

A recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revealed IBM's PC business lost about 1 billion dollars in the past 3 years. The PC unit lost $397m in 2001, $171m in 2002, $258m in 2003 and $139m through the first six months of this year. Even after outsourcing most of their PC business, the division continued to lose money. IBM's PC business was recently purchased by China's largest PC maker Lenovo for $1.25bn and the assumption of debt. The new firm will be headquartered in Armonk, New York where former IBM executives will run the ship. The merger of IBM's PC business into Lenovo will create the world's third-largest personal computer maker.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Limited Brands downgraded on reduced Dec. sales view

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38355.3519875463-830611663&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at First Albany on the belief that December same-store sales will fall short of expectations. Analyst Harry Ikenson now expects same-store sales to be flat to up 2 percent vs. previous forecasts of up 4 to 5 percent. He also believes the apparel business continues to be challenging as the retailer repositions toward a new target customer. The stock closed Friday up a penny at $23.02.

Just who are they going to "target" - the homeless or unemployed?

[UpInArms]

4. Yen Strengthens on Speculation BOJ Won't Act to Stem Advance

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=apbpeWuBYeNg&refer=top_world_news

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose against the euro and traded near a four-week high against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan won't try to halt its currency's gains.

The BOJ stayed out of the foreign exchange market in the month to Dec. 28, a period when the yen reached 101.83 per dollar on Dec. 2, the strongest since January 2000, a report last week showed. The dollar ended 2004 down 4.3 percent against the yen, partly on speculation the Bush administration favors a weaker currency.

``There's still room for yen appreciation,'' said Claudio Piron, a currency strategist in Singapore at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``There's unlikely to be intervention by the BOJ until we get below 100'' yen per dollar.

The yen traded at 102.45 per dollar at 11:22 a.m. in Tokyo, from 102.63 late in New York on Dec. 31, according to electronic foreign-exchange trading system EBS. It also rose to 138.62 per euro, from 139.10.

JPMorgan expects the yen to rise to 96 per dollar by the end of March, Piron said.

<snip>

``The bottom line is it's going to take action to turn the dollar's fortunes around,'' said Callum Henderson, global head of foreign exchange in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc. ``The ECB isn't ready to intervene and it appears we haven't hit the trigger that would cause the BOJ to act on the yen.''

...more...

[JNelson6563]

20. Interesting bit here:

``The bottom line is it's going to take action to turn the dollar's fortunes around,'' said Callum Henderson, global head of foreign exchange in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc. ``The ECB isn't ready to intervene and it appears we haven't hit the trigger that would cause the BOJ to act on the yen.''

One may have concluded that quote with "It seems those in charge of the other major currencies are content to sit back and watch America scramble."

I have long foreseen the classic pincer move applied economically as something we should be very expectant of. Funny to see all the cheerleaders declaring 05 will be a fabulous year. The signs are pointing in another direction.

Happy New Year Marketeers, may all of you find yourself on safe, high ground this coming year!

:hi: Julie

[ozymandius]

23. Hi Julie!

I, too, hope that common sense prevails in that market averages and dollar terms will concede to fundamentals. How can good times last when, just five weeks ago, nearly every major retailer issued profit warnings? More press reports since then have echoed "sentiment" rather than hard "data".

Good to see you here Julie. best wishes to you and your family this year!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

37. Hi Julie!

Happy New Year to you and yours!

:hug:

Glad you stopped in - come and play with us soon!

[UpInArms]

5. Report: Delta to slash fares, cut back restrictions

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2005-01-03-delta-changes_x.htm

NEW YORK (Reuters) — Delta Air Lines, the No. 3 U.S. carrier which has been restructuring in efforts to avoid a bankruptcy filing, is expected to slash fares and remove restrictive rules such as Saturday-night stays, Time magazine reported in its online edition on Sunday.

Delta spokesman Anthony Black declined comment, citing company policy that prohibits discussing future pricing.

Delta, whose regional airline Comair was forced to cancel about 1,100 flights on Christmas Day due to a computer glitch, is expected to overhaul its nationwide pricing policy next week, Time magazine said.

The Atlanta-based airline will halve ticket-change fees to $50 from $100 and slash fares on everything from first class to last-minute tickets, Time reported.

...more...

closing the barn door after the horses have left?

[ozymandius]

15. Delta experimenting as a volume no-frills carrier?

Delta Air May Expand Plan to Lower Fares

Delta Air to Reportedly Expand a Plan That Lowers Some Fares, Increases Passenger Traffic

UNDATED (AP) -- Delta Air Lines reportedly is changing the way it does business as it tries to compete with low-fare rivals.
The Wall Street Journal and Time magazine report Delta is planning to expand nationwide a simplified fare experiment that led to cheaper tickets and increasing passenger traffic at its Cincinnati hub.

The carrier hopes to roll out the new pricing structure later this month.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050103/delta_air_fares_2.html

[amazona]

49. delta say they lose $23 for every pax that flies

...are they trying to lose $123?

Oh well, they'll make it up on volume. :-)

[UpInArms]

7. Today's Reports

Jan 3 10:00 AM
Construction Spending Nov
report -
briefing.com 0.0%
market 0.5%
last report 0.0%
revised -

Jan 3 10:00 AM
ISM Index Dec
report -
briefing.com 59.0
market 58.5
last report 57.8
revised -

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. Nov. construction outlays fall 0.4% unexpectedly

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38355.4170685532-830613634&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. construction outlays dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in November, the first decline in 10 months, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch were expecting a gain of about 0.5 percent. Spending on private building projects fell 0.6 percent, the largest decline since January 2002. Outlays for home building fell 0.4 percent, the sharpest decline in nearly three years. Spending on business structures and infrastructure declined 1.2 percent, the largest drop since last January. Meanwhile, public construction outlays increased 0.4 percent in November.

10:00am 01/03/05 U.S. NOV. PRIVATE NONRESIDENTAL OUTLAYS FALL 1.2%

10:00am 01/03/05 U.S. NOV CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS BELOW EXPECTED 0.5% GAIN

10:00am 01/03/05 U.S. NOV. RESIDENTIAL OUTLAYS FALL 0.4%

10:00am 01/03/05 U.S. NOV. PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS FALL 0.6%

10:00am 01/03/05 U.S. NOV. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS FALL 0.4% V. UP 0.3% OCT

10:01am 01/03/05 U.S. DEC. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX ABOVE 58.3% CONSENSUS

10:01am 01/03/05 U.S. DEC. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 58.6% VS 57.8% IN NOV

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. Dec. ISM manufacturing index 58.6% vs 57.8 in Nov

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38355.4182056829-830613788&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Factory activity in the United States accelerated in December, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index rose to 58.6 percent in December from 57.8 percent in November. The increase was slightly above expectations. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by CBS Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 58.3 percent. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

will post more detail when it become available

[UpInArms]

28. December factory activity improves (more details)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3F90D045%2D3DF6%2D4011%2DA472%2D123377F92356%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Factory activity in the United States accelerated in December, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday.

<snip>

The increase was led by a significant increase in new orders, which rose to 67.4 percent in December from 61.5 in the previous month.

The employment index fell to 52.7 percent from 57.6 in the previous month.

The production index slipped to 56.9 percent from 57 in November.

Inventories rose to 53.4 percent from 50.7

...more...

Where's the good news?

[54anickel]

36. Heh-heh, "activity accelerated in December". Well, no sh*t - it does

every year! Everyone I know in a manufacturing job here was working OT up the butt since Thanksgiving if not a bit before. They try to get as many orders out the door before year-end, always have. "Hubby" and his co-workers were working thru the Holiday shutdown week, 12-14 hours a day at double-time pay, triple-time for the "eve" days. They'll return to 8-hour, 5-day weeks now.

[UpInArms]

10. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the indices as futures trade remains comfortably above fair value... Some notable analyst actions include raised Q4 revenue estimates on Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) from Goldman Sachs based on better than expected online advertising trends...

JP Morgan has upgraded Stryker Corp (SYK) to Overweight from Neutral but downgraded competitor Boston Scientific (BSX) to Neutral from Overweight while Wells Fargo has downgraded Gap Inc (GPS) to Hold from Buy due to concerns over spring merchandise assortments

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Bullish bias persists in pre-market trading, and as such, expectations for a higher start for cash market remain intact... Wal-Mart (WMT) has said weekend sales were above plan and now expects December same store sales to rise 3% while Walgreen (WAG) has beaten analysts' expectation by two cents, with Q1 (Nov) earnings of $0.31 per share...

Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK), however, could be under pressure following news that PFE's nerve pain drug Lyrica will likely be classified as a controlled substance while reports suggest that a larger than expected number of Vioxx-related deaths could spur additional litigation

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. Futures market suggesting a higher open for the cash market... Contributing to the upside bias has been as decline in crude oil prices ($42.48/bbl -$0.97), due to milder weather in the Northeast, and growing optimism about the New Year after reports suggested the economy is likely to grow 3.6% in 2005...

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and is poised to test the previous contract high crossing at 1645. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 1645 would renew this fall's rally thereby opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1717. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1607 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 10.00 pt. at 1638.50 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. However, stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1265 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The March S&P 500 Index was up 6.00 pts. at 1219.70 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

11. Stocks Set for Firm Start to '05; Oil Off

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures rose on Monday, pointing to a solid start to the New Year, as oil prices tumbled more than a dollar and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - news) brightened its outlook for December sales.

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, rose nearly 2 percent on the Inet electronic brokerage system, after it said sales rose 3 percent at U.S. stores open at least a year -- higher than its forecast a week ago.

-cut-

S&P 500 futures were up 5.10 points, higher than fair value accounting for interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract, indicating a higher start to trading.

Dow Jones industrial index futures were up 62 points, while Nasdaq futures gained 8 points.

A flush of "new money" coming into the market, such as from 401K retirement savings plans, could be helping, said John O'Donoghue, CSFB managing director of listed trading.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[ozymandius]

12. Treasuries Make Soft Start to New Year

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries started the new year on a soft note as signs of consumer resilience pressured bonds in what is expected to be a heavy month of corporate and government borrowing.

Concerns about slow holiday shopping were partly dispelled early Monday when Wal-Mart reported a strong end to the season helped by gift card redemptions. With consumption accounting for 70 percent of the economy, such resilience suggested the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) may stay on its tightening track.

The benchmark 10-year note slipped 9/32 in price, lifting yields to 4.26 percent from 4.22 percent on Friday. Traders emphasized that volumes were light with London and Tokyo still off on holiday, and prices were apt to swing wildly depending on economic data later in the session.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=3&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_bonds_dc&sid=95609877

[ozymandius]

13. The Casino is open for bidness.

9:30
Dow 10,802.66 +19.65 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,185.55 +10.11 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,213.61 +1.69 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259% +0.043
NYSE Volume 36,000
Nasdaq Volume 46,707,000

[UpInArms]

16. 4 minutes later - it's SOARING for a HAPPY new year

9:34

Dow 10,840.94 +57.93 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,189.70 +14.26 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,217.03 +5.11 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 42.59 +0.43 (+1.02%)
NYSE Volume 49,228,000
Nasdaq Volume 133,879,000

[ozymandius]

17. Someone lit a fire under the market's butt. Pity the bond traders today.

9:37
Dow 10,852.25 +69.24 (+0.64%)
Nasdaq 2,191.29 +15.85 (+0.73%)
S&P 500 1,217.68 +5.76 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257% +0.041
NYSE Volume 63,627,000
Nasdaq Volume 169,900,000

[ozymandius]

18. Eleven minutes into trading - uppity uppity

Dow 10,858.45 +75.44 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,190.18 +14.74 (+0.68%)
S&P 500 1,217.39 +5.47 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.261% +0.045
NYSE Volume 94,749,000
Nasdaq Volume 210,580,000

[UpInArms]

25. 10:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,828.31 +45.30 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,176.13 +0.69 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,212.31 +0.39 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259 +0.43 (+1.02%)

NYSE Volume 238,606,000
Nasdaq Volume 454,137,000

10:00AM: Stocks continue to hold their own and sport solid gains as virtually every sector has shown strength in the early going... Airline has gained nearly 2.0% while consumer staples, retail, telecom services, biotech, semiconductor, health care and financial have also traded higher... Energy has fallen more than 1.0%, as oil remains under pressure, while relative weakness has also been felt in computer hardware and homebuilding... Separately, the first pieces of economic data for 2005 have just been released but have done little to budge the indices...

The December ISM Index came in at 58.6 (consensus 58.5) while the November Construction Spending figure came in at -0.4% (consensus +0.4%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1559/1020, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1625/991

9:40AM: Market kicks off the New Year with an upbeat bias, in line with futures indications... Warmer than expected weather over the holiday weekend, which has helped trim more than $1.20 off crude oil futures prices ($42.20/bbl), has been a primary catalyst igniting early buying interest... An overall bullish sentiment, as fundamentals remain positive and the outlook for 2005 remains strong along with quarterly inflows and market seasonality, also appear to be lending support to the underlying positive tone...

At 10:00 ET, investors will get a better read on national manufacturing activity with the December ISM Index (consensus 58.5) while the Commerce Department will release November Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%)...

[ozymandius]

24. 10:07 and no bounce. Uh-oh.

Looks like we might have another sucker rally brewing.

Dow 10,826.31 +43.30 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,177.73 +2.29 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,214.26 +2.34 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.256% +0.04
NYSE Volume 227,405,000
Nasdaq Volume 444,626,000

[ozymandius]

26. I could be wrong. Looks like there's some levelling effect taking shape.

10:12
Dow 10,836.44 +53.43 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,176.74 +1.30 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,213.10 +1.18 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.253% +0.037
NYSE Volume 259,510,000
Nasdaq Volume 490,801,000

[UpInArms]

29. 10:22 and markets are slipping downward

Dow 10,804.81 +21.80 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,167.26 -8.18 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,210.31 -1.61 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259 +0.43 (+1.02%)

NYSE Volume 302,157,000
Nasdaq Volume 562,984,0

[UpInArms]

31. Piehole effect?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1117588

[ozymandius]

33. Yes, that's it. Gotta be.

Please disregard my comments below. President Stupid opened his gob.

[UpInArms]

27. Kmart reports 2.6% decline in Dec. sales

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE6FBBDBC%2D0D21%2D4647%2DAA21%2D25E6234E2F1B%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- Retailer Kmart reported a 2.6 percent decline in December same-store sales on Monday, with combined comparable-store sales dropping by 4.6 percent for November and December.

Kmart (KMRT: news, chart, profile) said in a statement that while same-store sales declined for this past holiday season, the rate of decrease has significantly slowed since early 2004.

The company said it expects to report net income of $250 million for November and December, excluding extraordinary items related to the company's bankruptcy and asset sales. Kmart also reported that income before interest and income taxes is expected to amount to about $400 million.

...more...

[ozymandius]

30. What's that hissing sound?

UIA, have the traders been reading our comments again?

10:24
Dow 10,813.24 +30.23 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,168.91 -6.53 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,211.29 -0.63 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.256% +0.04
NYSE Volume 316,366,000
Nasdaq Volume 589,652,000

[UpInArms]

32. dimbulb was stuttering

10:28

Dow 10,800.45 +17.44 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,164.72 -10.72 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,210.26 -1.66 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.246 +0.30 (+0.71%)

NYSE Volume 331,078,000
Nasdaq Volume 627,628,000

[ozymandius]

34. Gotta run after downdate and blather

10:42
Dow 10,799.12 +16.11 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,153.43 -22.01 (-1.01%)
S&P 500 1,208.87 -3.05 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% +0.028
NYSE Volume 403,484,000
Nasdaq Volume 764,454,000

U.S. stocks trade mixed after data disappoints

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Blue chips pared gains and the Nasdaq turned lower Monday as a batch of mixed economic data took some of the shine off a raised sales outlook from Wal-Mart, a stronger dollar and a sharp pullback in crude-oil prices.

-cut-

Within the benchmark, Wal-Mart was the biggest percentage gainer, adding nearly 2 percent on its revised December sales view.

Among the handful of Dow components moving lower, Merck (NYSE:MRK - News) fell 2.5 percent on a media report more users than initially thought may have died or had serious side effects from taking its Vioxx anti-arthritis drug.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050103/13dd35b00bd51cd043e2b76d27a7a062_1.html

Have a great day folks! It's been fun hanging out with you this morning. Right now, though, I need to start preparations for out trip to L.A.

Bye!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

35. 11:07 EST numbers (all red) and blather

Dow 10,775.54 -7.47 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,155.08 -20.36 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,206.37 -5.55 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.228 +0.12 (+0.28%)

NYSE Volume 502,543,000
Nasdaq Volume 922,594,000

11:00AM: Still not a great deal of conviction as a bearish bias remains firmly intact... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, which just over an hour ago lagged advancers by a commanding margin, now hold a more than 2 to 1 edge over advancing issues... Stronger volumes have returned, after a long week of limited participation, but down volumes on both the Big Board and Composite continue to hold a substantial advantage over up volumes...

Blue chips, however, have shown some resilience in the face of renewed selling interest, with gains in Wal-Mart (WMT 53.91 +1.09), following strong same store sales data for December, and Citigroup (C 48.66 +0.48) continue offset losses in Merck (MRK 31.40 -0.74) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 50.61 -0.65)...NYSE Adv/Dec 897/2151, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 821/2109

[ashmanonar]

38. ok, i can't read econospeak...

can anyone explain what all these articles and numbers mean, and the implications of the actions of the BOJ and ECB?

[UpInArms]

41. implications of ECB and BoJ

non-intervention - means that those institutions will not plough their own currencies in order to prop up the US dollar.

means that the private sector needs to step in (hahahahahaha) and quit chasing the next emerging economy (China) (hahahahahahaha) (note: google carlyle+china)

means the dollar may lose its global currency position

the next major meeting of nations will be the G7 in February - look for lots of wiggling before, during and after.

:hi:

[ashmanonar]

42. ok, that's what i figured

so they're cutting us loose...

about damn time, if you ask me...the money-holders of this country have played these paper money games and done this bullshit too long...

[54anickel]

39. Year in Review: Reflation to Gross Over-Liquefication

Article is the last entry on the page

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

I haven’t read anything from the general or business media that does 2004 justice. Most articles mundanely note that equity returns lagged 2003, while bonds posted surprisingly good if not stellar returns. Yet focus on the major equity averages and the Treasury market misses the major story of the year: rampant liquidity excess and rising inflation. For the year, The Street.com Internet index was up 36%. The Dow Jones Transports jumped 26.3%, and the Dow Jones Utilities gained 25.5%. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical index rose 15.4%, and the NASDAQ Industrial index gained 15.8%. The small cap Russell 2000 surged 17%, and the S&P400 Mid Cap index jumped 15%. The Securities Broker/Dealers jumped 15%. The NASDAQ Insurance index jumped 19.8%, and the NASDAQ Other Financial index rose 19.6%. The NYSE Energy index gained 25.5%. The AMEX Composite rose 22.2%. The AMEX Biotechnology index gained 11%. The NASDAQ100 gained 10.5%. The S&P 500 Homebuilding index posted a 2004 gain of 33%. Clearly, sectors and groups that one would expect to be the most sensitive to over-liquidity and inflation have, in most cases, performed exceptionally well.

I realize some analysts continue to note the less than overwhelming 6.6% 12-month expansion in M3. I would like to again emphasize that “money” supply may not always be indicative of system liquidity. Today it is not; liquidity conditions remain overwhelming.

First of all, it is worth noting that M3 less money market fund assets expanded at a 10.3% rate over the past year. Many have had good reason to use bank and money market deposits to purchase some of the inflating quantity of higher-yielding Treasury bills and notes. Generally, there continues a major flight into riskier and higher yielding securities, which fueled record sales of junk bonds, huge record issuance of ABS, and strong issuance of CDOs and other structured products. Also, total Commercial Paper outstanding expanded by 11.5% this year. And with two weeks of data yet to report, we are about to conclude a record year for bank Credit growth (up $543bn, or 8.6% ann.). Bank loans have expanded at a 10.6% rate, with Real Estate loans increasing at a 14.4% rate. Even C&I (commercial & Industrial) loans will post a small rise (approx. 1.6%) this year, the first gain since 2000. Moreover, second-half C&I growth increased to a 6.2% rate. And, according to the Fed’s “flow of funds” data, Broker/Dealer assets expanded at a 12.6% rate during the first three quarters of the year. And, importantly, 2004 will most likely post another record year of $1 Trillion-plus total mortgage Credit growth.

Any discussion of systemic liquidity must also note the ballooning (largely with dollar securities) of Asian central bank balance sheets. The latest data from Bloomberg has Total Asian (Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Singapore) central bank foreign reserve assets up almost $460 billion over the past 12 months (28%) to $2.1 Trillion. (As noted above, foreign “custody” holdings of U.S. securities held at the NY Fed are up 25% this year to almost $1.34 Trillion.) I would argue that liquidity has never been as abundant and that U.S. monetary aggregate growth has been impinged by the nature of current dollar balance “recycling.” Instead of foreign exporters holding U.S. liabilities that would in many cases be included in M3, foreign central banks are acquiring these balances and recycling them into U.S. Treasuries, agencies, and other securities/instruments that are not components of “money” supply.

snip>

To wrap this up this brief and incomplete “review,” we are now 25 months into historic “reliquefication.” As students of inflation would expect, the nature of Inflationary Manifestations has evolved and intensified over time. I would strongly argue that the powerful strain of inflation that has taken hold during 2004 is of the most precarious variety. “Animal spirits” and speculative impulses have been unleashed everywhere. And the problem with extended periods of rampant over-liquidity is that it becomes only more difficult to wean the levitated financial markets, inflated asset markets, and distorted economy off the stimulant. I expect that The Year it Didn’t Matter will be followed by The Year it Does.

Love that last line :smoke:

[54anickel]

40. 5 challenges for '05 (Look what made #1 on the list)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20050102-9999-lz1b2hurdles.html

As New Year's revelers bade farewell to 2004 Friday night, they rang out a year that ended much better than it began.

After three years of recession and anemic growth, the U.S. economy picked up steam last year – creating more than 2 million jobs, boosting the gross domestic product by an estimated 4.4 percent and driving the stock market to some of the highest levels it has seen since the collapse of the dot-com bubble.

But as the economy lurches into the new year, it faces some strong head winds that could threaten its expansion. Many economists predict that GDP growth will fall this year by more than a full percentage point – with predictions averaging about 3.3 percent – and possibly more if oil prices spike or the dollar declines too sharply.

Among the troubling signs on the horizon: a weakening dollar, sluggish job growth, high oil prices, high housing prices, and burgeoning U.S. budget and trade deficits. Those five areas are likely to be among the top economic challenges of 2005.

1. The weak dollar

more...

[54anickel]

43. U.S. investors turning overseas to boost portfolios

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzcov024101360jan02,0,5755462.story?coll=ny-business-leadheadlines

All the talk of the falling dollar and investing abroad has piqued Ken Molloy's curiosity in foreign stocks. So, in 2005, he plans to experiment a bit by putting a few thousand dollars into international mutual funds and to bone up on the subject by reading Investor's Business Daily.

But the Forest Hills resident is not quite ready to fully plunge into overseas markets. Though he's been in the U.S. stock market for about a decade, Molloy doesn't feel comfortable enough to pick individual companies outside the states just yet.

"It's difficult for me to keep a pulse on the foreign climate and economy," said Molloy, 45, an associate court clerk in Brooklyn who is a co-chairman of The Fight Club investment club in Garden City South. "I can manage my domestic holdings, but for foreign investing, I'm inclined to leave it to a professional."

Like Molloy, many investors are setting their sights overseas for 2005. Foreign stocks are expected to prosper since many are considered fairly cheap compared to U.S. investments and since they should benefit if the dollar continues to fall, experts said. Also, look for better payoffs from large-cap companies and more interest in dividend-paying stocks.

On the fixed income side, favor short-term and inflation-protected bonds, experts say.

Of course, you shouldn't make wholesale shifts of your holdings in hopes of finding the hot stock or sector in 2005. But January is a good time to look at your portfolio and see whether it is still in line with your asset allocation goals. If not, you may need to take some profits from investments that have appreciated and move them into other areas.

more...

[idealista]

44. lurker with question

RE: International bond mutual funds: hold some of their bonds in $, some in foreign currency. I have a couple of emerging market funds, which say they mostly hold in $. I am thinking this is bad with a falling dollar, however they seem to be performing as if they were getting a currency boost. Maybe there are other factors involving length of bonds, interest payments, etc.

Are these funds a good place to be with a falling dollar?

Sorry if this in inappropriate for this thread. There seem to be so many knowledgable people here, and when I call Fidelity or whomever the young guys on the other end either are not very up on this, or they seem to be BS'ing me. They must assume every investor is some guy driving a Cadillac and afraid of "currency risk".

[UpInArms]

53. Hi idealista!

I can't answer your question - am not a professional and would hate to steer you wrong.

You might do some investigation of the fund that you hold and see exactly how they "invest" their funds.

[54anickel]

45. World Bank Chief to Step Down in '05 (uh-oh)

With Bush's Backing Unlikely, Wolfensohn Plans to Leave Post After Term Expires

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43175-2005Jan2.html

James D. Wolfensohn, president of the World Bank, said yesterday that he expects to leave his job after his term ends this year, heralding the end of a tumultuous decade at the helm of the development lender.

"I've had 10 years, and I think that's probably enough," Wolfensohn said on ABC's "This Week" when asked whether he would like to stay beyond his second five-year term. "But if the need is there, I'll do whatever the want. My understanding and my belief is that probably during the course of this year I'll give over to someone else."

The comment was the first public acknowledgement by Wolfensohn, 71 , that he is unlikely to win the backing of the Bush administration for a third term. In recent months World Bank officials have described him as eager to stay on well past June, when his term expires, but increasingly resigned to the prospect that the Bush team would prefer to replace him with someone else. Publicly, Wolfensohn has said only that around year-end he will assess his chances of being reappointed, and make up his mind then.

By tradition, the United States, the largest shareholder among the World Bank's 184 member nations, chooses an American to head the bank, while Europe gets to choose the head of the International Monetary Fund.

The administration is still in the early stages of sifting names of potential replacements for Wolfensohn, but administration sources have said that Washington plans to consult with other member nations and conduct a more "transparent" selection process than in the past, when the decision was made by a handful of top U.S. officials.

Prominently mentioned as a candidate for the job is Robert B. Zoellick, the U.S. Trade Representative. Other possibilities include John B. Taylor, the undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs; Randall L. Tobias, the administration's global AIDS coordinator; Christine Todd Whitman, the former director of the Environmental Protection Agency; and Carla A. Hills, Zoellick's predecessor during the administration of President Bush's father.

more...

[54anickel]

46. Reacting to a Dollar With No Muscle

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/03/business/03xlede.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1104771756-Hx9VZIutJOt6SBMU6V/qvQ

THIS is going to be the year the world learns to live with a cheaper dollar. How well it does that may have a profound effect on prospects for continued world growth. That, at least, is the predominant opinion as 2005 begins.

The dollar's travails dominated the market news in the year just ended and were all the more important because they influenced perceptions of other events. The big rises in gold and oil seemed larger when measured in dollars than they did when calculated in euros or yen.

But the most important fact about currency markets in 2004 was that the dollar did not budge against the Chinese yuan, or against other Asian currencies that are effectively tied to the dollar. The big issue this year will be whether those ties are broken, and, if so, how markets and economies will react.

snip>

The currency movements also mean that for American investors overseas markets generally did better than American ones. While leading European markets were up less than 10 percent in euro terms, because of the euro's appreciation they showed double-digit gains when measured in dollars.

Even so, American investors were less interested in European stocks in the past year than in Chinese ones - or at least in companies that could claim to benefit from the Chinese boom. Those chasing that boom in 2005 may be risking getting in at the top, but there is little indication that the urge to buy Chinese will stop.

more...

[UpInArms]

47. 1:38 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,748.94 -34.07 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,158.34 -17.10 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,204.85 -7.07 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222 +0.06 (+0.14%)

NYSE Volume 903,193,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,436,039,000

1:30PM: Not much conviction as a renewed wave of selling interest pushes the indices toward new lows of the session... Retail, which gained nearly 18% in 2004 and has shown resilience as one of the few sectors posting gains today, has recently turned slightly negative... Larger department stores have contributed most of the early buying interest, after Wal-Mart (WMT 53.65 +0.83) said it now expects December same store sales to rise 3%, atthe high end of its 1-3% range, while specialty retailers have been hit after a series of analyst downgrades...

Wells Fargo has downgraded Gap Inc (GPS 20.95 -0.17) to Hold from Buy due to concerns over spring merchandise assortments while First Albany, which expects December comps at Limited Brands (LTD 22.64 -0.38) to be below their initial projections, has reduced its rating on the specialty retailer to Neutral from Buy... Williams-Sonoma (WSM 36.15 +1.11), however, which has been upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James due to valuation has surged as much as 5% and held onto most of its gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 978/2260, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1041/2039

1:00PM: Market improves its stance some but the broader averages continue to chalk up losses, as buyers pick up shares selectively... While earnings season doesn't officially begin for a couple of weeks, Walgreen Co. (WAG 40.03 +1.66) has been one stock that has garnered some buying interest... The drug store chain reported a 30.5% increase in profits, beating Wall Street expectations by two cents with Q1 (Nov) earnings of $0.31 per share, citing continued strength in prescription drugs and general merchandise sales... Also trading higher in sympathy has been rival CVS Corp (CVS 45.43 +0.36)...

[54anickel]

48. More companies going the self-insurance route

My last employer went this route. Funny how all of a sudden the folks that started needing surgery also suddenly started getting bad reviews and fired.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2973640

More than half of all insured U.S. workers have their coverage through self-insured or partially self-insured plans, according to the latest figures compiled by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

And those numbers have risen over the past three years as companies turn to self-insurance to avoid the skyrocketing premiums charged by large insurers.

Self-insurance is praised by some, who credit it with providing an alternative to high-priced health plans, thus giving more companies an incentive to offer insurance to their workers.

But others caution that self-insurance leaves workers unprotected, particularly in the case of a bankrupt company.

With a self-insured health plan, a company assumes the financial risk of providing health benefits.

more...

[amazona]

50. can I ask an investment question ?

Since I have low income, I have very low tolerance for risk. I have some cash from sale of equities and was wondering where I should put it. CDs? I Bonds? Any ideas? I need to avoid high transaction costs.

[Tace]

51. I Suggest You Don't Make Financial Decisions Based On Advice From...

boards like this. You can get ideas to consider, but should talk to a licensed advisor who doesn't get commissions. Just a suggestion. Cheers.

[amazona]

52. a licensed advisor who doesn't get commissions?

On my huge four figure income I couldn't possibly find much less pay such a person. :-(

[UpInArms]

54. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,729.43 -53.58 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,152.15 -23.29 (-1.07%)
S&P 500 1,202.08 -9.84 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.219 +0.03 (+0.07%)

NYSE Volume 1,505,606,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,190,143,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE0397A1F%2DA41C%2D4CB9%2DB3F9%2D3E8DA4C14DFA%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks ended lower Monday, as a move to lock in some of the gains made over the last year trumped the positive impact of a retreat in oil prices, a firmer dollar and a raised sales outlook from Wal-Mart.

On the first day of trading in 2005, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) ended down 53.58 points, at 10,729.43, after climbing as high as 10,867.39 in early trading.

Within the benchmark index, Wal-Mart rose 1 percent on its revised December sales view.

Among the Dow components moving lower, Merck & Co. (MRK: news, chart, profile) fell 2.7 percent on a media report that more users than initially thought may have died or had serious side effects from taking its Vioxx anti-arthritis drug.

Construction equipment maker Caterpillar Inc (CAT: news, chart, profile) shed 2.5 percent after the Commerce Department reported an unexpected decline in construction outlays for November.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) was down 23.29 points, at 2,152.15, well off an early high of 2,191.60. A decline in semiconductor stocks ($SOX: news, chart, profile) was weighing heavily on the tech-rich index.

The S&P 500 index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) was down 9.84 points, at 1,202.08.

...more...

buck holding above 81

Last trade 81.32 Change +0.45 (+0.56%)

Settle 81.30 Settle Time 15:35

Open 81.05 Previous Close 80.85

High 81.53 Low 80.82

Last tick: 2005-01-03 15:52:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[aneerkoinos]

55. self-delete