STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 4 January

[ozymandius]

Tuesday January 4, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 16 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 24 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 78 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1139
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 3, 2005

Dow... 10,729.43 -53.58 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq... 2,152.15 -23.29 (-1.07%)
S&P 500... 1,202.08 -9.84 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.22% +0.00 (+0.07%)
Gold future... 429.70 -8.70 (-2.02%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

THE CONSENSUS

We live in uncertain times. The Fed is raising interest rates, the dollar is falling and the U.S. is fighting a worldwide war against terrorism. U.S. stock market valuations are high, the bond market is overpriced and most asset classes of all stripes remain overvalued or fairly priced. Not to worry. That seems to be the message emanating from Wall Street analysts, market seers, and other clairvoyants for this year. The panelists of experts promise certainty this year because that is what markets and investors love. This year’s forecasts look more like last year—more of the same: a growing economy and a rising stock market. The only difference this year is that the forecasts have been tempered to reflect rising interest rates. The economy will grow, but at a slightly lower rate. Stock prices will rise, but not as much as last year. In other words, I’m okay—you're okay— the markets are okay... and there isn’t much to worry about.

-cut-

The financial markets prefer to travel along a straight road and not one that weaves and winds in unpredictable fashion. But that is exactly what markets did last year. Interest rates went up and then they came down and ended the year at exactly where they started. Stocks went up and then they came down before finally going up again. The same held true for the dollar. It went up and then it came down. Throughout last year's gyrations, the economy continued to grow at an above-normal pace as money and credit expanded at above-average rates. The U.S. economy grew 3.9% the first nine months of last year.

More Of The Same

That brings us to this year’s predictions. They could be summed up by four words; more of the same. The experts are forecasting strong growth in the economy (3.5-3.6%), a rising stock market, rising bond yields and a lower dollar. Investors will find comfort in that nothing much has changed. Even though last year's script didn’t follow the script that was written at the beginning of the year, this years forecast is expected to give us more of the same. In short, our economic seers are giving us another linear forecast, which is nothing more than an extrapolation of last year with a few minor modifications. As shown in the table taken from the 2005 BusinessWeek, forecast market soothsayers see 7% gains for the Dow and the S&P 500. Interest rates are forecasted to rise over 5% for the 10-year Treasury note. On the economic front, the economy grows by 3.5%, the Fed raises the federal funds rate to 3.4%, inflation moderates to 2.2%, and the economy creates more jobs with the jobless rate falling to 5.1%.

-cut-

Wishful Thinking

As to all of the wishful thinking regarding a lower dollar as a panacea for what ails the U.S. economy, think twice before you are culled into such wishful complacency. The U.S. trade deficit is structural. Most of what the US imports is because we don’t make it here anymore. As you recently went Christmas shopping, what did you find in the stores that are manufactured here? Were the shelves at Wal-Mart stocked with U.S. made goods? Were the racks at Nordstroms or Macy’s hung with U.S. made clothing? Were the aisles at Best Buy and Circuit City full of U.S.-made electronics? Consumer spending makes up over 70% of the U.S. economy. Today most of the goods the consumer buys are made overseas. Another 10% devaluation of the U.S. dollar isn’t going to solve that problem.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I must sign off for a few days. We will leave painfully early tomorrow morning for Los Angeles and still have many preparations to do. In my stead, 54anickel has graciously volunteered to post the thread. :toast:

See you all back here on Tuesday! And have fun at the Casino!


Ozy :hi:

[DoBotherMe]

3. Sorry I missed the close

yesterday... no access to the internets. My home computer is in the shop and we had an ice storm here and work was cancelled. But I'll post the numbers today. Happy New Year! Dana ; )

[UpInArms]

5. Good to see you Dana!

Glad that you are okay - ice storm here, too :scared:

Stay warm!

[54anickel]

9. Ice here as well, and tomorrow we are expected to get 4-7 inches of

that 4 letter word that starts with "S".

Oh well, a snow storm might be a nice change of pace from the sh*t storm we've been under since BeezleBush stormed the WH.

[trogdor]

29. It's raining in the Northeast.

Go figure. We had a brown Christmas, and still have zero snow on the ground. Weird.

[54anickel]

32. Brown here too. I just figured it was from the * sh*tstorm...n/t

[54anickel]

6. Have a safe trip Ozy! I will do my best while you are away these

coming few days and look forward to your return Tuesday morning. Now where's that alarm clock? ;-)

[UpInArms]

8. bye Ozy!

We'll miss you - hope you have a wonderful trip

:hi:

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.98 Change +0.68 (+0.84%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH35452_2005-01-04_12-54-19_L04720537

FOREX-Dollar in fighting form after end-2004 blues

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The dollar rose across the board on Tuesday as investors closed bets on further losses in the U.S. currency which hit a series of record lows against the euro in the final days of 2004.

The greenback extended the previous day's rebound to $1.3350 per euro <EUR=>, recovering more than three cents from an all-time low hit late last week.

It also jumped around one percent against the yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar, moving away from multi-year lows hit at the end of last year.

"Momentum and technical funds are bailing out of short dollar positions," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank.

The dollar has now notched up three consecutive years of losses and most analysts expect the currency to fall further in 2005 in order to correct the United States' huge current account deficit.

However, the speed of the dollar's decline in the past two weeks meant some correction was not unexpected.

"We had some fairly sharp moves amid thin liquidity so it's unsurprising we've seen a bit of profit-taking and a bit of a bounce back," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange research at Calyon.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH35155_2005-01-04_12-34-46_L04627995

GLOBAL MARKETS-Equities, dollar rise, U.S. jobs data eyed

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - European and Japanese stocks crept higher on Tuesday while bond prices slipped and the dollar made gains as investors awaited Friday's U.S. jobs data for a guide to 2005's prospects.

Wall Street looked set to open higher with oil prices steadying around $42 a barrel.U.S. stocks began the new year on Monday on a weak note, slipping after disappointing indications on employment and construction spending.

Investors are generally expecting the pace of world economic growth to ease somewhat in 2005, but to be robust enough to allow stocks to make modest gains.

"While somewhat slower than in 2004, U.S. and global economic growth should continue at a respectable pace in 2005," Bob Doll, chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers said in a New Year outlook.

The end-of-week jobs data will provide a signpost. U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 175,000 in December, up from November's weak gain of 112,000, according to the median forecast of a Reuters poll.

Equities were generally higher on Tuesday.

...more...

With the rise last or will this be another low high?

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

7. Today's Reports

Jan 4 10:00 AM
Factory Orders Nov
report -
briefing.com 1.3%
market 1.0%
last report 0.5%
revised -

Jan 4 12:00 AM
Auto Sales Dec
report -
briefing.com 5.4M
market 5.2M
last report 5.1M
revised -

Jan 4 12:00 AM
Truck Sales Dec
report -
briefing.com 9.0M
market 8.3M
last report 7.8M
revised -

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. Nov. factory orders up 1.2%; Oct. revised higher

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38356.4167677083-830634618&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- New orders for U.S.-made manufactured goods rose a faster-than-expected 1.2 percent in November after October's gains were revised higher, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The November rise was the fastest increase since July. New orders rose a revised 0.9 percent in October after an initial estimate of a 0.5 percent increase. Shipments rose 0.4 percent in November to a record $379 billion. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch expected a 1 percent gain in November orders.

10:00am 01/04/05 U.S. NOV. FACTORY ORDERS UP 1.2% VS FORECAST UP 1%

10:00am 01/04/05 U.S. OCT. FACTORY ORDERS REVISED UP 0.9% VS 0.5% PRIOR

10:00am 01/04/05 U.S. NOV. DURABLE GOODS REVISED UP 1.4% V PREVIOUS 1.6%

[UpInArms]

39. Ford sales for 2004 down 4.4%

12:06pm 01/04/05 FORD U.S. DEC CAR SALES UP 3% TO 83,200

12:04pm 01/04/05 FORD U.S. 2004 SALES DOWN 4.4% TO 3.3M

12:02pm 01/04/05 FORD DEC U.S. SALES UP 0.7% TO 294,270

[54anickel]

45. Meanwhile Ford gives Jaguar new cash boost

http://212.2.162.45/news/story.asp?j=129303900&p=yz93x46x6&n=129304660

Jaguar today said a £534m (€756m) cash injection had been agreed with owner Ford to cover the cost of abandoning its growth plans last year.

The UK car maker will receive the funds to cover the write-down on its investments, which contributed to it losing £601.1m (€852.1m) during 2003.

It comes just a year after Jaguar received £260m (€368m) from Ford to cover losses at its UK luxury cars arm.

A Jaguar spokesman said: “The Jaguar business was recapitalised in 2003 and a programme of further recapitalisation has been agreed with Ford Motor.”

more...

[UpInArms]

49. Mitsubishi US sales down 37% for 2004

Mitsubishi Motors U.S. sales down 39% in December

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38356.5309828704-830638516&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Mitsubishi Motors North America (MMTOF) said Tuesday that its U.S. sales fell 39 percent in December to 11,151 vehicles. For 2004, the Japanese automaker reported sales of 161,609 vehicles, a 37 percent drop from a year ago.

12:41pm 01/04/05 MITSUBISHI U.S. 2004 SALES FALL 37% TO 161,609

12:37pm 01/04/05 MITSUBISHI DEC U.S. SALES FALL 39.3% TO 11,151

[UpInArms]

64. General Motors, Ford Sales Down in 2004

http://www.mccurtain.com/articles/2004/12/22/ap/business/d87df61o2.txt

DETROIT - General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the nation's two largest automakers, reported lower U.S. sales in 2004 despite an onslaught of new vehicles, while Asian manufacturers continued to chip away at Detroit's hold on the American automotive market.

Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co., in particular, reported record-setting years. Toyota's U.S. arm sold more than 2 million vehicles for the first time in its 47 years of existence as its sales grew 10 percent for the year. Business in December rose 18 percent.

Nissan North America, aided by full-year sales of its full-size Titan pickup and other new vehicles, said sales rose 23.7 percent for the year and 32.7 percent in December.

"Our products have stimulated demand," said Yukitoshi Funo, president and chief executive of Toyota Motor Sales USA Inc. "The sales milestone is a reflection on the acceptance of products as varied as Scion, Sienna and Prius."

No. 1 GM said Tuesday its business declined 1.4 percent in 2004, a disappointment given its industry-leading 29 vehicle introductions. Car sales were down 3.7 percent; truck sales rose less than 1 percent.

Total sales for December fell roughly 7 percent, with losses on both the car and truck sides.

...more...

[54anickel]

10. The Lessons of 2004 (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050103-mon.html#anchor0

It has long been said that financial markets are the ultimate mousetrap — designed to embarrass the largest number of people, the greatest amount of time. That old adage was certainly in rare form in 2004. As I look back on the year, I do so with mixed emotions. From my global perch, it was largely a year of half-baked themes — macro trends that were great to debate but ones that gained only partial traction in world financial markets. It is often claimed that we learn more from our mistakes than from our triumphs. I couldn't agree more. The key, of course, is to convert that knowledge into personal and professional growth. In that spirit, I present my annual effort at personal inventory: the five lessons of 2004.

For me, many of last year's lessons are interrelated — part and parcel of the general framework of global rebalancing that has guided my macro view over the past few years. First is the timeworn debate over global imbalances. In many respects, I have led the charge in arguing that imbalances matter — especially the unprecedented disparities between the world's current account deficits (mainly the US) and surpluses (Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe). I still have deep conviction on that count. But I certainly have to confess that this call has gained only partial traction, at best, in world financial markets. When I speak with equity investors, they look at me as if I have come from a different planet. Suffice it to say, the resolution of global imbalances has hardly had a major impact on share prices. The same can be said of bond investors, as yields on longer-term securities barely budged in the face of unprecedented global imbalances. Of course, it was a different matter altogether in foreign exchange markets as the dollar came under renewed pressure over the course of last year. The broad dollar index fell about 7% in real terms in the second half of 2004, bringing the cumulative decline from the early 2002 peak to about 16%.

It its simplest sense, global rebalancing argues for a narrowing of disparities between current account deficits and surpluses. This boils down to nothing short of a fundamental realignment of the world's US-centric growth dynamic — a shift in the mix of global growth away from America back toward the rest of the world. Implicit in this adjustment would be a related shift in the mix of global saving — namely, an increase in the anemic US national saving rate and a reduction of excess saving in Asia and Europe. The rebalancing model assigns a key role to financial markets in sparking such a realignment.

From the start, I have felt that currency adjustments would be the trigger to market-driven rebalancing. Currencies are emblematic of the world's relative price structure, and a lopsided US-centric world was certainly in need of a weaker dollar. As such, I viewed the dollar's renewed decline in late 2004 as an encouraging development on the road to rebalancing. But I never thought that currency adjustments could do the job, alone. Instead, I argued that adjustments in foreign exchange rates were basically a Trojan horse, likely to usher in adjustments in other asset prices that would provide a more decisive impetus to global rebalancing. Interest rates were at the top of my list in that regard — having a much greater potential than currency shifts to spark meaningful adjustments in aggregate demand.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Still shaping up to be a higher open for equities as an upbeat sentiment in the futures market remains intact... Some notable analyst actions include Lehman raising its price target on Caterpillar (CAT) to $125 from $105 while positive comments from JP Morgan could keep Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple Computer (AAPL) in focus...

Smith Barney downgrades Amazon (AMZN) to Sell from Hold while valuations concerns have prompted Deutsche Bank to downgrade Genentech (DNA) to Hold from Buy and Raymond James to cut Dell (DELL) to Outperform from Strong Buy

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures market versus fair value still suggesting a higher open for the indices as analysts are again calling for an improvement in year-end auto sales, which will be released during market hours... Separately, reports suggest that Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) will take a sizeable hit from $30 bln in proposed budget cuts while Boeing (BA) could also be hit by a proposed missile defense restructuring

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. A positive tone in pre-market action as investors look to reverse yesterday's declines... Contributing to the upside bias that has futures indications suggesting a higher open for the cash market has been a continued slide in crude oil prices and ongoing strength in the dollar against the euro...

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's losses, which also marked a key reversal down. Despite overnight short covering, March remains below broken support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 1619.97. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1607 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above 1645 would renew this fall's rally thereby opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1717. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 2.50 pt. at 1618.50 as of 5:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's huge decline, which also marked a key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1204.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1265 is the next upside target. The March S&P 500 Index was up 2.20 pts. at 1208.50 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

12. The Long Arm of the Dollar

U.S. Currency's Weakness Has Far-Reaching Ramifications

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46055-2005Jan3.html

Against the mighty Romanian leu, the U.S. dollar has sunk by 15 percent over the past five months. That is no laughing matter for Mary Ann Bell of Middleburg, executive director of a charity called Romanian Christian Enterprises.

The weakness of the U.S. currency, Bell said, "has made a huge difference in our ability to care for poor people and abandoned kids." Although the charity's annual budget of about $300,000 is still adequate to fund a school for disabled children, the organization can no longer send a doctor into mountain villages to provide free medical care and pharmaceuticals. It has suspended the interest-free loans it used to give to Romanian families down on their luck, and it has cut back on the amount of firewood it distributes to households desperate for heat.

An extreme example, perhaps, but the charity's woes illustrate the far-reaching ramifications of the dollar's decline -- about 16.5 percent since its February 2002 peak against a basket of major currencies, and a fall that has been gathering momentum over the past several weeks. The currency's slide is being felt in ways as small as the rising price an American tourist pays for a plate of pasta in Rome and as large as the decisions by foreign companies to build factories in the United States as a hedge against fluctuating currency values.

For the most part, the cheaper dollar helps the U.S. economy by making American goods less expensive relative to those made abroad. But Americans like Bell cannot help but wonder how it can be good if their currency buys so much less overseas than before -- and many economists agree that the long-range implications may be wrenching.

The dollar's downward move, after all, stems from a massive imbalance in the U.S. economy, as reflected in the country's burgeoning trade deficit. Since Americans import more than they export -- the gap is running at about $600 billion a year -- foreigners effectively lend the difference, taking the dollars they receive for their goods and investing them in U.S. assets such as Treasury bonds. The net amount Americans owe foreign creditors has soared over the past eight years, to more than $3 trillion from $360 billion. The amount is equal to nearly 30 percent of the country's annual economic output. The more this sort of indebtedness rises, the more reluctant foreigners may become to continue buying dollars.

much more...

[54anickel]

13. Manufacturers in US benefit from falling dollar

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/3c06fea2-5df2-11d9-ac01-00000e2511c8.html

US manufacturing activity accelerated in December as the falling dollar continued to help exporters and domestic demand strengthened, according to figures released on Monday.


The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly index climbed 0.8 points to 58.6 - well above the 50 level separating expansion from contraction. That was the second consecutive rise following several months of slowing growth in the sector.

Export orders were particularly strong, with the index rising from 54.7 to 60. Analysts said there were signs that the weaker dollar was providing a boost to exports. Nearly 40 per cent of respondents said that domestic orders grew faster in December, with just 16 per cent reporting slower growth.

snip>

Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, said that companies might have brought forward purchases of capital equipment to take advantage of bonus depreciation allowances, part of the economic stimulus package of the Bush administrations first term that expired at the end of 2004.

The only disappointment in the report was the employment index, which pointed to a slower rise in hiring, as it fell from 57.6 to 52.7. Economists have been hoping a stronger labour market would help sustain consumer spending now that the effect of tax cuts and lower mortgage interest payments has faded away.

more...

Hmmm, let's wait and see how the first quarter goes. This sounds like a lot of wishful thinking to me - "The declining dollar is working! - oh wait, guess it was just a temporary year-end push. Nevermind." :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

14. 9:37 EST markets are open (everybody's happy!)

Dow 10,757.14 +27.71 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,157.50 +5.35 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,204.86 +2.78 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218 -0.01 (-0.02%)

NYSE Volume 50,337,000
Nasdaq Volume 126,723,000

[54anickel]

16. Looks like gold is holding up quite well considering the gains in the

buck. Folks must have seen it as a "bluelight special" again. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

20. adding hilarious cheerleading blather

9:40AM: As expected, investors shrug off yesterday's weakness and bid stocks higher at the open... While the first few trading days of January have often been indicative of a bullish bias, it appears the market may be viewing Monday's pullback - a quick reversal prompted more by technical alerts than any specific news event or breakdown in fundamentals - as somewhat unwarranted... At 10:00 ET, the Commerce Department will release November Factory Orders (consensus +1.0%)...

[54anickel]

23. HA! Reminds me of when we were kids...

[54anickel]

15. Tougher times are in store

Conditions likely to be hard as merchants try to match '04 gains

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0501040326jan04,1,4790701.story?coll=chi-business-hed

snip>

"We expect softness in overall revenue growth for retailers in 2005," Fitch Ratings analyst Philip Zahn said in a report titled "A Mixed Bag Awaits U.S. Retail in 2005."

For one thing, the U.S. gross domestic product growth is expected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2005, well behind the anticipated 4.3 percent finish for 2004. Also, relatively high oil prices--trickling down to the gas pump--will linger. Both factors could combine to dampen spending at middle-market retailers.

But there will be exceptions, of course .

snip>

In the first half of 2004, a wide swath of retailers posted super-sized sales. A 2005 encore is unlikely.

"A number of retailers benefiting from the Bush tax goodies and surging economy in the second half of 2003 and the first half of 2004 will now be exposed," Michael Baker, publisher of "Specialty Retail Research," said in a December report.

snip>

"We're concerned that Wal-Mart's strategy to position large Supercenters closer together may" continue to depress sales growth at existing stores, Goldman Sachs analyst George Strachan said in a note to clients. He recently downgraded the stock of the Bentonville, Ark., retailer. "The company can recalibrate some openings to minimize cannibalization, but as the store base expands, this will become increasingly difficult."

Wal-Mart's endgame, he noted, is to have 15 percent market share of the U.S. retail industry--up from 7 percent or 8 percent today.

lots more...

[54anickel]

18. Shopping Spree That Wasn't as Markdowns Hurt Retailers

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/04/business/04shop.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1104849937-wqVGeYGVbk+othdUYi3l3A

If 2003 was the full-price Christmas, 2004 was the season of the last-minute markdown as merchants, led by Wal-Mart Stores, scrambled to cut prices before and after Dec. 25, in many cases choosing sales gains over higher profits.

Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer, announced yesterday that it ended the year ahead of its most recent sales forecast, in part because it began lowering some prices immediately after a lackluster Thanksgiving weekend.

Looking ahead to Christmas, and not liking what they saw, Wal-Mart executives in late November marked down 24 of the store's most popular toys and electronics to generate traffic. Instead of the 2 percent gain in December sales that Wal-Mart forecast last week, the company said yesterday that the figure was closer to 3 percent. Shares of Wal-Mart rose $1.37, to $54.19, in early trading yesterday and closed up 53 cents, at $53.35.

Wal-Mart executives said the increase was the result of higher-than-expected sales in the week after Christmas, many of which came from customers using gift cards to buy food and electronics.

Fearing the mediocre sales that so many had predicted, department stores and specialty shops sharply marked down merchandise - particularly clothes - in the week before and after Christmas. The strategy brought a surge in traffic for many stores, but analysts said yesterday in reports and interviews that they were concerned that so many markdowns might hurt profits.

more...

[UpInArms]

38. 25 Lord and Taylor stores to close

11:57am 01/04/05 MAY DEPT STORES TO CLOSE 25 LORD & TAYLOR STORES

Wow! Retail sale must have been better than we thought!

(since up is down)

[UpInArms]

40. May Dept Stores to close 25 Lord & Taylor stores (details)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38356.5044990162-830637667&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The May Department Stores Co. (MAY) said Tuesday that it has arranged to close 25 underperforming Lord & Taylor stores. The department store operator said in 2003 that it planned to close 32 underperforming stores. The company said it expects to finalize closing plans on some of the remaining seven stores in the next 30 days.

[UpInArms]

17. Dollar up again in early-year bounce

(Wow! a 2 day bounce!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8A56CA2E%2DE84B%2D44A7%2D8D96%2DD62E3712ECB2%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The dollar gained for a second day against its major rivals Tuesday, a move analysts say is an expected correction after 2004's slide.

With U.S. trading under way, the dollar was up 0.8 percent against the euro. One euro was worth $1.3361.

The dollar gained 0.9 percent against its Japanese counterpart, to 103.69 yen.

The greenback was up 0.7 percent against the British pound, with one pound fetching $1.8918.

The currency move is mostly technical in nature, said Steve Pearson, a currency analyst at U.K. bank HBOS.

"Maybe we've got to a place where the debate is so one-sided for the prospects of the dollar that some correction is likely," he said.

Pearson noted that over the last few years, there have been dramatic dollar moves in December, which were followed by retracement in January. "That seems to be panning out earlier this year," he added.

Financial markets were awaiting more data on the U.S. manufacturing sector.

...more...

[54anickel]

19. Unsettling thoughts for dollar-lite punters: A new Asian crisis in reverse

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/479ca5f8-5d2c-11d9-bb9c-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

We know that the US cannot continue accumulating external liabilities and that Asian countries cannot go on piling up dollar reserves at the current rate indefinitely. Yet the present unstable equilibrium keeps both sides of this recycling equation happy, even if many countries with floating currencies are mercilessly squeezed as a consequence.

In fact, the Asians have little choice but to finance the US deficit. They are running current account surpluses and, especially in China's case, are receiving huge net inflows of direct investment. Their private sectors are wary of buying dollars for good reason and they cannot lend in their own currencies to the US. The cost of not adding to the dollar stockpile is high. If any one country yields to the American mercantilist demand for currency appreciation and abandons the dollar peg, there will be an immediate loss of competitiveness vis-à-visAsian neighbours together with a risk of deflation, something that China has come close to in the recent past and Japan has already experienced.

These periods of currency turbulence are dangerous for markets. The 1987 stock market crash was, after all, triggered by transatlantic friction over currencies. The sensible escape from unsustainable imbalances lies in international co-operation: a joint appreciation of the Asian currencies against the dollar. The risk is that there will be no agreement and that one country will lose control of its currency, sparking contagious currency and financial crises as in 1997-98 but with the difference that the Asians have now largely become creditor countries instead of debtors. So currencies would go up, not down.

This is a futurologist's nightmare. It suggests that the near-universal assumption that further dollar decline is inevitable needs questioning.

bit more...

[54anickel]

22. Booming China heads for collision with West

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C2095-1421899_1%2C00.html

FROM where Marc Faber sits in his stately pleasure dome by the banks of the placid Ping river in northern Thailand, the latest corporate scandal in Asia over $550m (£285m) in trading losses by a Chinese oil company looks like a perfect storm.

It brings together three big themes that have fascinated the Swiss financial analyst since he moved to Hong Kong in 1973 for Drexel Burnham Lambert, made a mint in the markets, and then turned into a colourful “contrarian” commentator.

First is the awesome economic rise of China, symbolised by the presence of China Aviation Oil, which holds a monopoly on fuel for domestic airlines, in the Singapore oil futures market.

Second is the chaotic and contradictory nature of Chinese “capitalism”, which placed this commercial venture in the hands of a Communist party loyalist, Chen Jiulin, 43, who was arrested and bailed by Singapore authorities last month.

Third is the insatiable Chinese demand for resources that propelled the company to venture into tricky derivative trades as it sought to supply aviation fuel for a hungry industry at home.

more...

[RawMaterials]

24. Factory orders above expectations

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Factory orders rose at the fastest rate in four months during November as strong demand for new commercial aircrafts pushed business up by 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $377.42 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The Commerce Department said transportation orders -- the largest single component in factory business -- posted an 8.8 percent increase in November following a scant 0.1 percent October gain. It was the strongest rise in transportation orders since an 11 percent gain in February. Civilian aircraft and parts orders were up 64.2 percent after a slim 5 percent October advance.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/04/news/economy/factory_orders.reut/index.htm

[punpirate]

43. That's interesting...

... considering that I live near one of the larger aircraft storage sites in the country, and the city had to close one of the airport runways to make room for more aircraft put in storage. And, the local aircraft recycler (which boneyards parts and crushes old airframes) is running full shifts--used parts sales are pretty good.

The Chinese are buying Airbus. This has to be reflecting orders from JAL, which was set to buy 7E7s from Boeing, and a shitload of small executive planes for the newly rich and richer. The American airlines can't be buying new planes when they have so many sitting on the ground, mothballed.

[RawMaterials]

25. Halliburton units exit bankruptcy

"I am pleased that we have taken our final step and permanently resolved our asbestos liability," Dave Lesar, Halliburton's chairman, president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

"The asbestos chapter in Halliburton's history is closed," he added.

Under its settlement with 370,000 asbestos claimants and 21,000 silica claimants, Halliburton will pay about $2.8 billion in cash and 59.5 million shares of its stock into a trust fund to compensate current and future victims.

Halliburton said it expects to fund trusts for current and future asbestos and silica claimants by the end of January.

Dick should be happy about this news...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/03/news/fortune500/halliburton.reut/index.htm

[UpInArms]

26. 10:18 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,753.15 +23.72 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,155.28 +3.13 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,204.34 +2.26 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.224 +0.05 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 271,226,000
Nasdaq Volume 470,506,000

10:00AM: Market shows resilience in the early going as equities continue to trade at improved levels... Energy (+0.7%) has rebounded after a 4% decline in oil prices sent the sector lower on Monday while strength has also been realized in software, health care, financial, utility and consumer staples... Airline (-2.7%), however, has relinquished yesterday's modest gains while the materials sector (-0.6%) has fallen as aluminum and copper prices hit their lowest levels in three months amid slowing demand in China and gains in the dollar...

Also showing weakness have been homebuilding, hardware, semiconductor and biotech... Separately, November Factory orders just came in at +1.2% (consensus +1.0%), but the market has held relatively steady in response to the rather predictable report...NYSE Adv/Dec 1696/986, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1433/1084

[RawMaterials]

27. 1030 am est market update

Market Update

10:30AM: Investors push the indices slightly higher upon further analysis of this morning's economic data, but early buying efforts stall as major indices now trade in split fashion... The Commerce Department has released a better than expected increase in November factory orders of 1.2%, versus economists' forecasts of 1.0%... While the previously reported durables component reading of +1.6% has been revised slightly lower to +1.4%, the only new component - non-durable orders, which includes such items as food and tobacco products - came in stronger than expected at +1.0%...

A revision in total factory orders for October, to 0.9% from a previous 0.5%, has resulted in back-to-back monthly gains, showing continued strength in business investment and business demand... NYSE Adv/Dec 1746/1144, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1426/1273

[54anickel]

28. Will Dow record of 11,722.98 fall in '05? (Spit-take!)

Bwahahahahahehehe-heh! Well, we know BeezleBush is trying his best for it, drop the buck, huge tax break in 05 for multi-nationals to repatriate their overseas profits, privatizing SS. Hey, It could happen...right before a huge fleecing. :evilgrin:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=677&e=22&u=/usatoday/20050103/bs_usatoday/willdowrecordof1172298fallin05

It might be hard to believe, but just 27 months after the nation's oldest and most recognizable stock barometer set a bear market low of 7286, the Dow is within striking distance of taking out its high notched at the height of the stock market bubble.

To make history, the Dow, which ended 2004 at 10,783, must climb an additional 940 points, or 8.7%.

If the Dow recoups the rest of its 37.8% bear market loss sometime in 2005 - an accomplishment most pundits would have viewed as a long shot a few years back - it would be a huge psychological boost for investors scarred by the worst decline since the 1929 stock market crash ushered in the Great Depression.

"A new high for the Dow would have huge significance," says Neil Hennessy, president of the Hennessy Funds. Indeed, scaling a new peak in the face of war, terrorism, record-high oil prices, rising interest rates, a weakening dollar and the most scandalous period in memory for U.S. companies would serve as the latest proof of the market's remarkable resiliency and uncanny ability to overcome stubborn headwinds.

Granted, investors who had the bulk of their money invested in the technology-packed Nasdaq composite, which is still 57% below its high, or the Standard & Poor's 500 index, 21% off its peak, will have to wait longer to get back to even.

more...

[54anickel]

30. Optional Reading (A contrarian point of view)

http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/columns/options.htm

snip>

Get out of stocks and bonds and do it now. I can't say it any more plainly. Stay out of dollar-denominated assets, too - the dollar is down 40% in the past couple of years, in case you haven't noticed, and its modern decline has only just begun.

Think you're doing ok with your stocks, given the market's recent rebound from the 8,000s to the 10,000s? Wrong. In 2002 dollars, the Dow actually has gone from 8,000 to 6,000. You actually lost 25% of your nest egg over the past two years! What good will it do you for the market to double (more likely to suffer an absolute decline, actually) while the dollar falls by half?

Fundamentals and historical P/E ratio analysis dictate a coming market of about 4,500, less than half what it is today, when ratios revert to their mean averages, and revert to the mean they always do, rest assured. And that is before financial statements get restated for stock options, by the way, which will make things much worse for some. At the same time, the dollar probably will decline by another 40 or 50 per cent. Net result to those of you who stand pat: a loss of about 75% of the purchasing power of your stock market investments during the coming few years. Factor in the 25% decline of the past two years and you are looking at a net loss of 85%!

Never have I seen the stock market represent a worse investment than it does at this moment. Don't forget, I speak financial.

While we have discussed America's burgeoning twin deficits, both fiscal and trade, I haven't really stressed the importance of the bothersome Russian and China moves to cement relations with countries that have provided America's energy needs shortfall up to now, such as Canada and Venezuela. Can you say "$5-per-gallon gas," boys and girls? Now I read that America has, for the first time, suddenly become a net importer of food. This is truly bad news which can only get worse for three reasons: (1) the unending tidal wave of illegal immigration, (2) the plummeting dollar which has no hope of revival due to America's huge trade imbalance and (3) international downward pressure on American trade barriers to foreign foodstuffs.

more...

[Tace]

41. This Could Be The Nail In The Coffin, Or The Stake Through The Heart

This, on top of other bearish analyses that don't even take the option expensing into account, is some scaaaaaaary stuff. Man, oh man, oh man.

[54anickel]

47. I posted something (last week?) where some analyst predicted

Wall Street would just ignore the effects of expensing options. I think that was another bit of wishful thinking. :shrug:

[54anickel]

31. 10:55 - Where'd all the money go? Another "do over" day?

Dow 10,726.40 -3.03 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,136.92 -15.23 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 1,200.26 -1.82 (-0.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.24% +0.021
30-yr Bond 4.837% +0.02 NYSE Volume 431,274,000
Nasdaq Volume 743,216,000

[54anickel]

33. U.S. stocks turn mixed as profit taking takes hold (Hmm, yeah - that's it

- profit taking.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050104/9541717775b243fd93527b15ba2ab1cd_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Blue chips moved off their best levels Tuesday, and the Nasdaq turned lower as a rising dollar and better-than-expected data failed to stem a move by investors to consolidate gains made in 2004.

snip>

"I think we're seeing some profit taking," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. "We had a great run in the last two months."

"It doesn't mark any sustainable change in direction or psychology. It's just one of those corrective moods."

snip>

In the wake of the economic report, bonds turned lower as the data lowered the odds the Federal Reserve would mark a pause in its policy of raising U.S. short term rates at a "measured" pace.

more...

[54anickel]

34. ROC And Rollover?

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/moprinter.htm

Are Ya’ Feelin’ Lucky, Punk?…At this point you know that Consumer Confidence rebounded quite smartly with the December reading. It’s probably really no huge surprise given the liquidity driven levitation act in the equity markets as of late. Moreover, as we’ve mentioned, energy prices and consumer confidence readings move in opposite directions over time. The recent drop in crude probably helped the cause in terms of raising holiday spirits. But stepping back a bit, it’s important to remember as we look into 2005 that energy prices and interest rate movements often influence consumer sentiment and the real economy in a lagged fashion. Usually 6-12 months after meaningful interest rate or energy price increases we see confidence wane and see tangible evidence of economic/consumer slowing. The longer term historical relationship is pretty clear. (WTIC is West Texas Intermediate Crude prices)

But cutting directly to the bottom line, we believe that the most important subcomponent of the consumer confidence report over the last few months was simply absent from either the headline financial media coverage or commentary. And that was the portion of the report that measures forward looking consumer intentions to purchase cars, homes, and major appliances. Before taking even one step further, what is ultimately most important is what consumers do, not what they say in surveys. But having said that, the one month drop in these subcomponent readings in November was so significant relative to historical context, that we believe they deserve attention. A few quick pictures of life in the modern day fast lane.

In each of the following graphs, we’ve taken the data back to the midst of the last recession. But we’ll give you a bit of further color on history going back three and one half decades (the complete history of the series). As of the November consumer confidence report, the consumer response regarding plans for buying an auto dropped to the lowest level ever recorded in the history of this data. Responses literally plummeted. Certainly there has been a nice rebound in December.

snip>

Just what the heck has been going on here? We’re three years into an economic recovery. Why the sudden and literal plummet in consumer spending plans in November? Was this some kind of huge anomaly in the reporting or the data collection? December readings suggest November was possibly a data outlier, but the reason we bring this up is that November readings have been seen quite infrequently over the last 30+ years. Most recently, plans to purchase homes, autos and appliances seen in November were likewise seen during the 1993-94 time frame. A period of a jobless US economic recovery somewhat analogous to what we are experiencing at the present. But outside of this, the only other time readings such as the November survey numbers were seen occurred smack in the middle of every recession of the last 35 years. From our standpoint, we have one simple question. Is the “lag time” over, so to speak, in terms of higher energy prices and interest rates influencing consumer spending decisions? This deserves fastidious attention looking ahead from our point of view. If indeed higher interest rates and energy prices are catching up with a plainly over leveraged US consumer in aggregate, this would have very significant implications for both the domestic and global economies looking dead ahead. Something the current equity markets appear not to be seeing at all, at least not through the blinding blizzard of current liquidity excess.

more...

[54anickel]

35. 11:38 numbers, blather and the high-flyin' buck

Dow 10,747.61 +18.18 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,139.01 -13.14 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,201.33 -0.75 (-0.06%)
10-yr Bond 42.40 +0.21 (+0.50%)
30-yr Bond 48.40 +0.23 (+0.48%)
NYSE Volume 601,089,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,005,190,000

11:30AM: Major indices remain mixed as choppy trading and more profit taking keeps equities on the defensive... Meanwhile, the dollar has seen its best levels since pre-Christmas trade, rallying against both the euro (1.3295) and the yen (104.30) for a second consecutive day... The stronger greenback has sent basic materials stocks and other commodities plummeting, however, since signs of strength, which continue to benefit exporters since the US currency remains near historic lows, should also assist importers of raw materials over the short term...
11:00AM: Not much conviction on the part of buyers as market breadth turns bearish and the broader averages fall to their lowest levels of the morning... The broad-based nature of the pullback, which has pushed virtually every sector a bit lower, has again been reflected in the A/D line... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, which just over a half hour ago lagged advancing issues by a respectable margin, now outpace advancers while down volumes on both the Big Board and Composite continue to hold a commanding edge over up volumes...

The Nasdaq, which had witnessed modest gains early on, has lost the most ground recently edging below initial intraday support levels (2143) and continues to hover just above a secondary barrier (2133)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1375/1642, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1066/1750

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1219 (37%) 951 (31%)
Declines 1893 (57%) 1982 (65%)
Unchanged 177 (5%) 106 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 194 (36%) 262 (28%)
Down Vol* 334 (62%) 662 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 4 (0%) 10 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 36 49
New Lo's 6 8


And the almighty US$

Last trade 82.44 Change +1.14 (+1.40%)

Settle 81.30 Settle Time 23:37

Open 81.26 Previous Close 81.30

High 82.47 Low 81.18

Last tick: 2005-01-04 11:07:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.

The March Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering and is breaking out above the previous reaction low crossing at 81.05 and the 20-day moving average crossing at .8172. Multiple closes above the 20- day moving average would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this year's decline, the June 1995 low on the monthly chart crossing at 80.14 is the next downside target.

[54anickel]

36. Oh my, a 10 Billion 2-day repo issued this morning

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

And lookie at the one day jump in the debt for the year-end

12/31/2004 $7,596,165,867,424.14

12/30/2004 $7,521,283,292,667.91

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

[UpInArms]

37. gotta admire those conservative pukes, don't cha?

The estimated population of the United States is 295,235,369
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,568.91.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.77 billion per day since September 30, 2004

[54anickel]

44. GACK!!! Just think of what you could do with $25,568.91!

[UpInArms]

42. 12:14 EST numbers, blather and the soaring buck

Dow 10,709.56 -19.87 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,128.23 -23.92 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 1,197.57 -4.51 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.234 +0.15 (+0.36%)

NYSE Volume 715,763,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,178,716,000

12:00PM: Market opens on an upbeat note for the second straight session, but ongoing consolidation of last year's gains, a breakdown in technicals and a stronger dollar continue to contribute to investor uncertainty... Stronger than expected November factory orders of 1.2% (consensus 1.0%) spurred early buying interest, as a strong non-durable orders figure of +1.0% coupled with an upward revision in October factory orders (to 0.9% from 0.5%) validated ongoing strength in demand and business investment...

But profit taking has been too much for buyers to remain active as market internals remain fairly bearish and the broader averages continue to linger near key support levels... Nearly every sector has succumbed to selling pressure midday, with airline (-3.7%) losing the most ground... Materials stocks (-1.4%) have also plunged on the heels of a recovery in dollar against both the euro (1.3295) and the yen (104.30) for a second consecutive day... Technology has been weak across the board, with semiconductor (-2.0%) leading the list of laggards, while homebuilding, biotech, retail, telecom services and health care have also been weak...

Energy, however, has received a boost following a modest recovery in crude oil prices ($42.40/bbl +$0.28) while financial, utility and consumer staples have also shown some relative strength... Bonds, which initially shrugged off this morning's better than expected factory orders, have been under pressure as the dollar continues to strengthen... The 10-year note is off 5 ticks to yield 4.23%...

Last trade 82.46 Change +1.16 (+1.43%)

Settle 81.30 Settle Time 23:37

Open 81.26 Previous Close 81.30

High 82.54 Low 81.18

Last tick: 2005-01-04 11:45:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

46. Chinese team up with Bricklin; promoter plans to import Chery brand cars b

http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=101527

Chinese cars are coming to the United States in two years, and the person selling them will be Malcolm Bricklin.

That's the plan according to a contract Bricklin signed with Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. On Dec. 16, they agreed that Bricklin would be the automaker's North American importer. Now he wants to sign up 250 dealers by the end of this year for a U.S. launch in January 2007.

And he projects a stunning 250,000 sales in the first year.

Bricklin did not discuss financial details of the arrangement. The deal combines one of China's aggressive independent automakers with a high-profile promoter who has launched a string of automotive sales ventures - most of which failed (see box, Page 36).

Bricklin's strategy hinges on Chery building stylish, high-quality vehicles that can sell for 30 percent less than the lowest-priced competitor in each segment. The low-price formula is similar to Bricklin's previous ventures: Subaru of America Inc., which succeeded, and Yugo America Inc., which flopped.

more...

Chinese carmaker ambitious, controversial
GM has accused Chery Automobile Co. of copying Chevy design, plans to sue.

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0501/02/A08-47232.htm

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. first gained notoriety two years ago when General Motors Corp. accused it of copying one of its vehicles. But the Chinese carmaker is now in the spotlight because its ambitious growth plans have put it on a fast track in China's budding auto industry.

Although it ranks eighth in sales among China's carmakers, Chery is already the biggest Chinese vehicle exporter. It also plans to become the first Chinese company to build cars abroad.

GM first brought Chery to the world's attention in 2003, when it accused the carmaker of copying the Chevrolet Spark, a hatchback based on GM's Daewoo Matiz.

Chery denies the charge, but the QQ bears a striking resemblance to the Spark and also outsells it.

The dispute reflects the confusion, risks and ambitions in China's new auto industry, where global carmakers are battling pugnacious upstarts for a piece of what may become the world's largest auto market.

more...

[54anickel]

48. Dollar Rallies as Bears Take Cover

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050104/markets_forex_5.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar roared higher on Tuesday as investors unwound bets on a further near-term decline after the currency had plumbed several record lows against the euro in the final days of 2004.

snip>

"What you're seeing now is an unwind of not only the rally (in the euro) from late December but probably the rally that began in November," said Jordan Kotick, global head of technical analysis with Barclays Capital in New York.

snip>

Many traders were also awaiting any mention of the dollar in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting set for release at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT).

Michael Woolfolk, senior strategist at The Bank of New York, said the minutes "will show interest rates have to continue to rise at a measured pace. The dollar has continued support in anticipation of those minutes."

Rising interest rates tend to make assets more attractive for foreign investors, adding to demand for a currency. :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

50. More Companies Increase Dividends

The number of firms raising payouts rose 7% last year, although that was a slower pace than in 2003.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-dividends4jan04,1,1856944.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Hefty corporate earnings and a federal tax cut helped persuade more companies to boost cash dividend payments to shareholders last year.

A total of 1,745 U.S. companies raised their dividends in 2004, up 7% from the 1,630 that increased payments in 2003, according to a report Monday from research firm Standard & Poor's in New York.

The pace of increases was half that of 2003, however, disappointing analysts who had expected a larger number of companies to reward investors.

snip>

He believes that many corporate managers are skittish about parting with accumulated profit because of deep-seated concerns about the economy and whether the expansion will continue. Terrorism fears also are a factor, Carlson said.

more...

[54anickel]

51. Bush Should Talk to Europe's Investors (Good grief, that's ALL the markets

need right now - BeezleBush opening up his piehole.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45939-2005Jan3.html

snip>

Bush's schedule will be filled by official meetings with political leaders, military leaders and bureaucrats, as is the case for all presidential visits. Yet it's hugely important that, as part of this trip, he request time with Europe's leading business executives. Not only are they America's best friends in Europe at a time when hostile opinions of the United States are still running high, they are also critically important to our economy and our well-being.

All the attention being lavished on China and India does not change the reality that Europe and the United States are one another's largest trade partners, largest investors and largest employers. This is particularly important to note at a time when we require $2 billion per day of foreign capital to service our debt, when the dollar is losing value regularly in the marketplace, and when the overall net flow of foreign money into American stocks and bonds has fallen sharply.

As of the end of 2002, Europe's net direct investment in the United States amounted to approximately $1 trillion; this consists of fixed, long-term assets such as factories, real estate and other businesses. Current valuation would be substantially higher. Other European holdings consist of portfolio securities of various types; they are quite liquid in nature and can be bought or sold in large amounts and on short notice. As of June 30, 2003, European holdings of U.S. equities amounted to $816 billion, and long-term debt securities, including U.S. Treasury bonds, amounted to just over $1 trillion. While Asia's holdings of U.S. long-term securities are approaching Europe's, Asia's level of equity ownership is still only 30 percent of Europe's, and, by and large, Asian financial institutions are less likely, for political as well as economic reasons, to be large-scale sellers of U.S. securities. The same constraints would not apply in Europe.

Economically, Europeans view their investments in the United States through the prism of the significant devaluation of the dollar. If one were to assume an average of only 30 percent devaluation of the dollar vs. the euro (as opposed to the current 40 percent or more), present-day portfolio losses for the Europeans due to dollar devaluation would be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Europeans are skeptical about our mantra that "the United States is for a strong dollar" as well as about our commitment to deficit reduction, since, as a practical matter, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have acquiesced in a policy of cheap money and high deficits. Europeans would, however, strongly support Bush's call for tort reform. Many European companies are facing devastating lawsuits in asbestos cases in the United States, and capping these liabilities would be an important incentive for them to continue to invest here.

"Credit" comes from the Latin "credere," to believe. European investors have to believe that we are serious about dealing with our own as well as the world's financial instability. The first step would be a firm presidential commitment to a strong and stable dollar and budgetary policies that are consistent with that commitment. :silly:

more...

[54anickel]

52. Why should the dollar rally?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville010405.html

snip>

Whenever any market has been trending strongly in one direction over a long period of time there will never be any shortage of explanations floating around as to why the trend should continue, so right now it is naturally very easy to find bearish commentary on the dollar. And this bearish commentary will often cite the dollar's poor long-term fundamentals -- primarily the large US current account deficit -- as if it were somehow impossible for a market to make a major move in the opposite direction to the one suggested by long-term fundamental factors. By the same token, it's quite difficult to find arguments to the effect that the dollar is about to begin a lengthy recovery.

However, it is not impossible for a market to trend strongly for 6-12 months or longer in a direction that appears to contradict the long-term fundamentals. In fact, it's not even improbable. Furthermore, as far as we can tell the dollar's intermediate-term fundamentals are strongly bullish. For example, the below chart comparison of the Dollar Index and the TYX/IRX ratio (the yield on the 30-year T-Bond divided by the yield on the 13-week T-Bill) illustrates one aspect of the improving interest rate backdrop for the US$.

snip>

By the way, notice on the above chart that after the Dollar Index reached its major peak in July of 2001 it didn't immediately embark on a large decline. Rather, it fell for 2-3 months and then rebounded back to near its peak in January of 2002 before commencing a consistent downward trend. If something similar were to happen now then we'd see a major low very soon and then a test of the low around the middle of 2005 before a large advance got underway. Such an outcome would not, however, be consistent with our other market views. Therefore, a more likely scenario -- one that meshes with our other market views ñ is a dollar bottom early in 2005 followed by a strong upward trend for 6-12 months in response to improving interest rate differentials and the unwinding of carry trades. The longer-term downward trend would then resume.

In addition to improvements in the interest rate differentials, reasons to expect a substantial recovery in the dollar over the coming year include:

more...

[fedsron2us]

67. I am a dollar bear

but I cannot help noticing that it has held the line at crucial support levels against a number of currencies. For example, in earlier dollar devaluations in the 1980s and the early 1990s the dollar never substantially broke through the level of $1.94-$1.95 against the British pound. Again it has hit that ceiling and recovered already to $1.88. Given the nature of the money markets I would not be surprised to see the buck stage some sort of recovery against the European currencies. Of course this will have no real impact on the major structural financial problems which really relate to the undervalued Asian currencies such as the yuan. These are as much a political as an economic issue. They will only be fixed when a political leader emerges with enough common sense to put the US governments fiscal house in order and enough courage to tell the major corporations that 'globalisation' is probably more of a threat to American security and economic well being than all the jihadis in the Middle East. Needless, to say that person is not George.W. Bush.

[54anickel]

53. A Rally for the Buck?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye010405.html

snip>

Barron's: I'm interested in your notion that the world is long inflation and short the dollar.

Hoye: That's where the main speculation has been. It is important to know that by inflation we don't mean the rate of change of the CPI , but inflation in stocks and bonds, energy and industrial commodities.

Some think it's a sign of tightening that the Fed has increased the fed-funds rate four times. But the money supply is still growing. Speculation has become so intense that short rates have been going up because of the demand for speculative money. I doubt that the Fed would ever deliberately tighten, because they want to keep the party going.

Q: So you're saying the Fed isn't in charge of our destiny?

Hoye: It is all in the hands of the speculators. The market never accommodates the desires of the crowd, and we would include central bankers among the crowd.

Sentiment figures for the stock market, by many measures, show extreme bullishness. The Investor's Intelligence survey just popped up to a multiyear high. Sentiment as applied to the dollar index shows only 5% bullishness. Being long stocks, bonds or commodities is all a way of being short the dollar, so to speak, especially if you've borrowed to own it. If you borrow, you have got to pay it back, so therefore you are short the currency you need to pay it back in.

snip>

Q: Are we close to a day of reckoning?

more...

[54anickel]

54. 1:48 downdate - it's the oil again

Dow 10,711.40 -18.03 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,124.39 -27.76 (-1.29%)
S&P 500 1,197.14 -4.94 (-0.41%)
10-yr Bond 42.36 +0.17 (+0.40%)
30-yr Bond 48.43 +0.26 (+0.54%)
NYSE Volume 1,000,030,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,632,167,000

1:30PM: Major indices continue to sport broad-based losses as oil prices continue to climb... Crude oil prices have now surged more than a $1.80 to $43.95/bbl after Saudi Arabia said it has cut daily production by 500K barrels as part of an OPEC promise implemented at the start of the year... A more than 3% movement in the commodity today, however, has kept buyers on the sidelines, unlike yesterday's 4% slide which did little to keep a lid on aggressive selling interest... NYSE Adv/Dec 1214/2031, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 865/2197
1:00PM: A bearish tone continues to persist as the indices extend their reach into negative territory... The Nasdaq has recently fallen below a secondary support barrier (2133) to new lows not seen since mid December led primarily by weakness in semiconductors... The SOX (-2.7%), which was down aggressively yesterday but held near its 50 day moving averages, has recently plummeted to a new six week low (411.74)... Chipmakers pacing the way have been TER (-4.4%), AMD (-4.1%), NSM (-3.9%), TSM (-3.8%) and NVLS (-3.3%)...

Shares of Intel (INTC -1.5%) have also been weak despite positive comments from Prudential suggesting that demand for microprocessors has remained strong through December and that Intel should report Q4 revenues at the high of its previous range ($9.3-9.5 bln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1215/1994, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 858/2184

[UpInArms]

55. 2:28 EST numbers (really bloody), blather and the buck

Dow 10,637.43 -92.00 (-0.86%)
Nasdaq 2,106.43 -45.72 (-2.12%)
S&P 500 1,188.86 -13.22 (-1.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292 +0.73 (+1.73%)

NYSE Volume 1,156,430,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,891,785,000

2:00PM: Market slides to new lows as sellers continue to take the majority of most industry groups lower... On the Dow, basic materials stocks like DuPont (DD 48.09 -1.03) and Alcoa (AA 30.58 -0.41) have shown the most weakness as the dollar has sustained a gain of more than 1% against the major currencies... Selling pressure has also been prevalent in Intel (INTC 22.65 -0.42) and Honeywell (HON 34.85 -0.45) while Caterpillar (CAT 94.79 -0.28), despite upbeat remarks from Lehman Brothers, has also fallen...

Three of the only ten components trading higher have been McDonald's (MCD 32.20 +0.38) and Altria (MO 61.27 +0.64) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 50.42 +0.33), the latter reaping the benefits of higher oil prices...NYSE Adv/Dec 1194/2082, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 861/2213

1:30PM: Major indices continue to sport broad-based losses as oil prices continue to climb... Crude oil prices have now surged more than a $1.80 to $43.95/bbl after Saudi Arabia said it has cut daily production by 500K barrels as part of an OPEC promise implemented at the start of the year... A more than 3% movement in the commodity today, however, has kept buyers on the sidelines, unlike yesterday's 4% slide which did little to keep a lid on aggressive selling interest... NYSE Adv/Dec 1214/2031, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 865/2197

1:00PM: A bearish tone continues to persist as the indices extend their reach into negative territory... The Nasdaq has recently fallen below a secondary support barrier (2133) to new lows not seen since mid December led primarily by weakness in semiconductors... The SOX (-2.7%), which was down aggressively yesterday but held near its 50 day moving averages, has recently plummeted to a new six week low (411.74)...

Last trade 82.36 Change +1.06 (+1.30%)

Settle 81.30 Settle Time 23:37

Open 81.26 Previous Close 81.30

High 82.54 Low 81.18

Last tick: 2005-01-04 13:42:09 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

58. Whoops, didn't see your post here! n/t

[UpInArms]

56. FOMC split into two camps on price outlook on Dec 14

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38356.5834890741-830640143&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Federal Open Market Committee was roughly divided into two camps on the outlook for inflation at their closed-door meeting on Dec. 14, according a summary of the meeting released Tuesday. A number of FOMC members were worried that the weaker dollar, higher energy prices and a slowdown in productivity growth may lead to higher prices. But others on the FOMC argued that wages remained under control and that the risk to prices from a weak dollar might be overstated. This is the first time the FOMC has released the minutes from its meetings after a three-week lag. In general, FOMC members were upbeat about the economy, saying that the expansion was "firmly established" and "resilient."

1:59pm 01/04/05 FOMC DISAGREE ON OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS SPENDING

1:59pm 01/04/05 FOMC OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GROWTH, SPENDING ON DEC. 14

1:59pm 01/04/05 SOME ON FOMC SAY LOW RATES CAUSING TOO MUCH RISK-TAKING

1:59pm 01/04/05 OTHERS ON FOMC SAY WEAK DOLLAR MAY NOT RAISE PRICES

1:59pm 01/04/05 WEAK DOLLAR, SLOW PRODUCTIVITY LEAD FOMC PRICE CONCERNS

[54anickel]

57. 2:35 and Zowie!!! What happened?

Dow 10,644.89 -84.54 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,108.43 -43.72 (-2.03%)
S&P 500 1,189.55 -12.53 (-1.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.281% +0.062
30-yr Bond 4.878% +0.061
NYSE Volume 1,193,781,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,942,745,000

2:00PM: Market slides to new lows as sellers continue to take the majority of most industry groups lower... On the Dow, basic materials stocks like DuPont (DD 48.09 -1.03) and Alcoa (AA 30.58 -0.41) have shown the most weakness as the dollar has sustained a gain of more than 1% against the major currencies... Selling pressure has also been prevalent in Intel (INTC 22.65 -0.42) and Honeywell (HON 34.85 -0.45) while Caterpillar (CAT 94.79 -0.28), despite upbeat remarks from Lehman Brothers, has also fallen...
Three of the only ten components trading higher have been McDonald's (MCD 32.20 +0.38) and Altria (MO 61.27 +0.64) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 50.42 +0.33), the latter reaping the benefits of higher oil prices...NYSE Adv/Dec 1194/2082, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 861/2213

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1047 (30%) 745 (23%)
Declines 2245 (65%) 2365 (73%)
Unchanged 149 (4%) 93 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 217 (19%) 399 (21%)
Down Vol* 872 (78%) 1439 (77%)
Unch. Vol* 17 (1%) 10 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 46 64
New Lo's 7 12

[UpInArms]

59. 2:48 EST LOOK OUT BELOW!

Dow 10,612.23 -117.20 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq 2,102.07 -50.08 (-2.33%)
S&P 500 1,186.03 -16.05 (-1.34%)
10-Yr Bond 42.85 +0.66 (+1.56%)

NYSE Volume 1,251,795,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,025,890,000

DIVE! DIVE! DIVE!

[UpInArms]

60. FOMC - "potentially excessive risk-taking" in markets

2:35PM: Sellers show some resolve over the last half hour as the major indices quickly retreat following the release of the FOMC minutes from the December 14 meeting... While housing, the rise in equity markets and stronger job growth were seen as supporting consumption, the Fed also said it saw "potentially excessive risk-taking" in markets... In turn it was repeated that inflation remains well-contained, yet neither the stock nor the bond markets were pleased to hear an added observation that the rise in the TIPS inflation gauge might be a warning sign...

The 10-year note is down 19 ticks with its yield at 4.29%... Overall, the FOMC Minutes acted as an added catalyst for further broad-based selling efforts that have taken the indices hit new session lows in the last half hour...NYSE Adv/Dec 1014/2274, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 747/2336

[54anickel]

61. Oh my! Guess they should have kept to minutes to themselves, huh?

So will they call for another "do over, that doesn't count" again tomorrow?

[UpInArms]

63. pay no attention to that man behind the curtain

[UpInArms]

62. Spitzer: Ex-CEO of Federated indicted

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA395A6FF%2DF41C%2D49C4%2D97E4%2DF9877CAC9EDC%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A New York County grand jury has indicted James Zimmerman, the former chairman and chief executive of Federated Department Stores, on a charge of perjury, according to New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer on Tuesday.

The indictment charged Zimmerman with lying under oath to conceal evidence of possible antitrust violations in the bridal industry.

The charges stem from an investigation that began in 2003 in which Spitzer alleged Cincinnati-based Federated (FD: news, chart, profile), along with May Department Stores (MAY: news, chart, profile), Lenox Inc. and Waterford Wedgewood USA, took part in a scam to shut out Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY: news, chart, profile) from selling Lenox and Waterford products.

...more...

[54anickel]

65. A New American Century? Iraq and the hidden euro-dollar wars

http://www.anti-imperialism.net/lai/texte.php?langue=3§ion=BDBE&id=23382

Despite the apparent swift U.S. military success in Iraq, the U.S. dollar has yet to benefit as safe haven currency. This is an unexpected development, as many currency traders had expected the dollar to strengthen on the news of a U.S. win. Capital is flowing out of the dollar, largely into the Euro. Many are beginning to ask whether the objective situation of the U.S. economy is far worse than the stock market would suggest. The future of the dollar is far from a minor issue of interest only to banks or currency traders. It stands at the heart of Pax Americana, or as it is called, The American Century, the system of arrangements on which Americaís role in the world rests.

Yet, even as the dollar is steadily dropping against the Euro after the end of fighting in Iraq, Washington appears to be deliberately worsening the dollar fall in public comments. What is taking place is a power game of the highest geopolitical significance, the most fateful perhaps, since the emergence of the United States in 1945 as the worldís leading economic power.

The coalition of interests which converged on war against Iraq as a strategic necessity for the United States, included not only the vocal and highly visible neo-conservative hawks around Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz. It also included powerful permanent interests, on whose global role American economic influence depends, such as the influential energy sector around Halliburton, Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco and other giant multinationals. It also included the huge American defense industry interests around Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, Northrup-Grumman and others. The issue for these giant defense and energy conglomerates is not a few fat contracts from the Pentagon to rebuild Iraqi oil facilities and line the pockets of Dick Cheney or others. It is a game for the very continuance of American power in the coming decades of the new century. That is not to say that profits are made in the process, but it is purely a bypro-duct of the global strategic issue.

In this power game, least understood is the role of preserving the dollar as the world reserve currency, as a major driving factor contributing to Washingtonís power calculus over Iraq in the past months. American domination in the world ultimately rests on two pillars ó its overwhelming military superiority, especially on the seas; and its control of world economic flows through the role of the dollar as the worldís reserve currency. More and more it is clear that the Iraq war was more about preserving the second pillar ñ the dollar role ñ than the first, the military. In the dollar role, oil is a strategic factor.

American Century: the three phases

more...

[54anickel]

66. 3:37 and recovering a bit heading into the close

Dow 10,650.29 -79.14 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,112.01 -40.14 (-1.87%)
S&P 500 1,190.01 -12.07 (-1.00%)
10-yr Bond 4.283% +0.064
30-yr Bond 4.877% +0.06
NYSE Volume 1,505,467,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,401,503,000

3:30PM: More of the same as the indices continue to languish near their lows heading into the close of trading... S&P constituent Monsanto (MON 52.77 -1.98), which is expected to post Q1 (Nov) earnings of $0.13 per share on $1.06 bln in revenues, will be the only company of note out with results tomorrow... With regards to economic data, investors will get a read on December ISM Services (consensus 61.0) at 10:00 ET, as the employment index component could be a focal point ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls data...NYSE Adv/Dec 885/2449, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 723/2424
3:00PM: The market continues to head lower as selling remains widespread across most areas... One group in focus throughout the session has been the automakers as investors have waited for December sales figures... While Dow component General Motors (GM 39.49 -0.81), which has offered huge cash rebates on both 2004 and 2005 models, showed a lower than expected decline of 6.8% in total Dec sales (consensus -10.5%) and reaffirmed FY05 N. American shipments, shares of the auto giant have been pummeled...

Rival Ford (F 14.64 -0.07), which has avoided such promotions in recent months, has shown that Dec sales increased 1.0%, versus expectations of -4.9%, while Daimler Chrysler (DCX 47.49 -0.19) has shown a total group sales increase of 11%, versus forecasts of flat growth.... Share of both, however, have also declined... NYSE Adv/Dec 892/2422, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 686/2442

[DoBotherMe]

68. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,630.78 -98.65 (-0.92%)
Nasdaq 2,107.86 -44.29 (-2.06%)
S&P 500 1,188.05 -14.03 (-1.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.283% +0.064
NYSE Volume 1,719,671,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,691,959,000


Close: Inflation concerns, profit taking and higher oil prices were just some of the catalysts that fueled a selling frenzy that kept virtually every sector underwater all afternoon... While a summary of the FOMC's December 14 meeting minutes viewed a rise in equity markets and an improving job outlook as supporting consumption, it also renewed worries about inflation and raised concerns about risk taking in the market, prompting investors to lock in two months of profits...
Some of the FOMC members were worried that stronger price pressures could result from weakness in the greenback, a slowdown in productivity growth and higher energy prices... With regards to the latter, a 4.3% rebound in crude oil prices ($43.91/bbl +1.79) only exacerbated selling interest that even pushed energy stocks lower and kept market internals negative throughout most of the session... Not even stronger than expected November factory orders of 1.2% (consensus 1.0%), which lifted stocks in the early going as the data confirmed continued strength in demand and business investment, was enough to keep buyers from heading for the exits...

Meanwhile, the greenback hit its best levels since mid December, surging more than 1% against both the euro (1.3270) and the yen (104.63) as an increased probability of further Fed rate hikes pushed the currency even higher... The stronger dollar sent basic materials stocks and other commodities plummeting while a series of analyst downgrades kept several technology names under pressure... Technical support levels on the Nasdaq were tested throughout the session, as the Composite posted its largest one day loss in about five months...

[54anickel]

69. Eww, that's another ugly day on the Street...n/t

[DoBotherMe]

70. Just an interested novice ... no creds here

but that surely looked ugly to me. D ; )

[54anickel]

71. That's OK, they'll call for a "Do Over" tomorrow!!! n/t

[AndrewJacksonFaction]

72. May I ask........

what is a "do-over" day?

[54anickel]

73. Sorry, guess it became my recurring theme for the day in response

to the blather in post #20 where they seem to say Monday's pullback didn't count. Sort of like when you were a kid and something didn't go quite right in a game - you'd call "do over, that doesn't count".

[David Zephyr]

74. The Last Two Days Were Brutal.

Ugggh.

[JNelson6563]

75. They say as the first 5 days go

so goes the year, most of the time anyway.

Julie