STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 5 January

[54anickel]

Wednesday January 5, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 15 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 25 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 79 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1140
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 4, 2005

Dow... 10,630.78 -98.65 (-0.92%)
Nasdaq... 2,107.86 -44.29 (-2.06%)
S&P 500... 1,188.05 -14.03 (-1.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.88% +0.06 (+1.25%)
Gold future... 429.20 -0.50 (-0.12%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And iif you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact
[e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions
Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[54anickel]

1. Today's WrapUp by Ike Iossif 01.04.2005

Lotsa charts

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

snip>

"Technically speaking" we can make four distinct observations that can guide us in formulating our expectations about the market's direction over the next 5 to 15 trading days:

a) Both the short and the intermediate term up-trend are still intact for all the major indices. It would take a close below 1180 by the SP for the short-term trend to turn negative, and a close below 1150 for channel support to be violated, which will cause the intermediate term trend to turn negative. At this point, it is reasonable to expect a test of short-term support at 1180.

b) Price has been able to move higher--due to positive seasonality--despite the negative divergence, which implies a strong market. The key thing to watch for is for the price to finally succumb to the divergence. When that happens, it implies a change in the "character" of the market. If the SP violates short-term support at 1180, it would imply that the "character of the market" has changed, at least for the short-term, and we ought to expect a test of channel support at the 1150 level. A visual way of recognizing the "character change" is by noting that price will move from the upper half of the channel, to the lower half of the channel.

c) The price action/chart pattern by two of the leading indices, Utilities and the Transports, suggest that the odds do favor short-term weakness. The Utilities have formed a rather ugly double top, and the Transportation index already moved into the lower half of its channel.

In conclusion, going forward the odds are better than even that we will see further price erosion in the magnitude of 2.5% to 4.5%.

[54anickel]

2. Dollar Gains to Three-Week High as Higher Rates May Spur Demand

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=axqagIknkSPo&refer=japan

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest in three weeks against the euro on expectations a widening interest- rate gap between the U.S. and the euro region will spur demand for the U.S. currency.

The Federal Reserve said at its Dec. 14 meeting the target rate is less than needed to slow inflation after five increases last year, minutes showed yesterday. The 2.25 percent rate is a quarter point above the European Central Bank's benchmark. The dollar is up almost 3 cents versus the euro this week and has climbed 2 percent compared with the yen.

``We were aggressively selling dollars in September and January is the first time we're aggressively buying,'' said Naeem Wahid, a currency strategist at HBOS Plc in London. ``Rates are very slowly going to become a factor in the market and turn things around.

snip to some fell for it>

``Eventually higher U.S. yields will mean a stronger dollar,'' said Jesper Dannesboe, a currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in London. ``The Fed minutes and the increased hawkishness are part of the dollar rally story'' this week. CSFB forecasts the dollar at $1.30 per euro in 12 months.

snip to others are not so gullible>

``This is a false dawn for the dollar, I think the dollar will weaken further against the euro and the yen before it gets stronger,'' Chertkow said. ``The key point at the moment is still on structural factors, especially the U.S. current account deficit.'' He said the dollar will weaken against the euro and the yen before ending the year stronger versus the euro.

more...

So it looks like the strategy of releasing the minutes early had the desired effects on some analysts.

[54anickel]

3. Oil Falls as Warmer Weather May Cause U.S. Inventories to Rise

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aSil.vruEZsc&refer=latin_america

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude-oil prices slipped from a two- week high as forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather in the eastern U.S. indicated inventories may increase.

``The market is reacting to substantial demand losses because of extremely warm weather in the eastern U.S,'' said Deborah White, a Paris-based economist at Societe Generale. ``Supplies seem to be ample and adequate for the moment.''

The U.S. National Weather Service predicts temperatures will exceed the seasonal average from Jan. 10 through Jan. 14 across the Northeast U.S., where most of the nation's heating oil is used. A U.S. government report today is expected by analysts to show stockpiles of heating fuels, grouped as distillates, were little changed last week.

Brent crude for February settlement fell 39 cents, or 1 percent, to $40.65 a barrel at 10:28 a.m. on London's International Petroleum Exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for February delivery slid 33 cents to $43.58, 22 percent below its October record of $55.67.

more...

[54anickel]

4. Real Wages Seen Rising in '05 After First Decline in a Decade

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wages5jan05,1,869217.story?coll=la-headlines-business

snip>

Wages, when adjusted for price increases, are likely to bounce back this year after falling in 2004 for the first time in a decade, say economists such as Richard DeKaser of National City Corp. in Cleveland and Raymond W. Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, N.J.

An increase in real wages shifts more of the benefits of the economic expansion to consumers, who account for more than two-thirds of gross domestic product. Growth in real wages "will increase workers' disposable income, boost confidence and help keep consumer spending strong," DeKaser said. He expects the U.S. economy will grow 4% in 2005, or 0.4 percentage point faster than the median forecast of 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The economists' predictions about wages are based on two expectations: First, that companies will step up hiring in 2005, removing slack in the labor market and creating pressure to pay workers more; and second, that falling oil prices and slowing increases in employee health costs will ease inflation. The combination would leave workers in better financial shape and would support their spending habits. :puffpiece:

U.S. employers created more than 2.1 million net jobs last year, and an economist survey by Kansas City, Mo.-based publication Blue Chip Economic Indicators predicts an additional 2.22 million in 2005.

[54anickel]

5. Mortgage Applications Decreased Last Week

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050105/economy_mortgages_2.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' appetite for home refinancing and purchasing dropped last week even though mortgage rates declined, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity declined 10.6 percent to 605.7 in the week ended Dec. 31, after falling 1.7 percent in the MBA's prior week survey.

That is the lowest level of activity since the week ended June 25, 2004, when the index was at 575.0.

During the holiday-shortened week, a drop in fixed mortgage rates wasn't enough to spur activity.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.67 percent last week, excluding fees, down 5 basis points from 5.72 percent the prior week.

more...

[54anickel]

6. Instant credit means instant identity theft

Retailers, banks in a rush make things easy for imposters

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6762127/

A surge in personal bankruptcies isn't the only consequence of America's addiction to credit. And the problems connected to irresponsible credit card use are no longer limited to those who don't pay their bills on time. Anyone can be a victim of the radioactive fallout from the credit culture: Identity theft.

According to the Federal Trade Commission, nearly 10 million people were victims of identity theft last year. America's hasty methods for disbursing consumer credit are largely to blame.

Today, consumers can walk into a Circuit City electronics store with nothing in their wallets, and walk out with a $3,000 plasma television in about 15 minutes. This is the "miracle of instant credit," described by the Federal Trade Commission's Howard Beale.

But it's also a miracle for identity thieves. Here's why: Just as consumers can drive off a car lot in an hour with a brand new $30,000 car, so can their imposters.

Consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy, accounting for two-thirds of all economic activity -- and the prime of that pump is the "impulse buy," a have-it-all, have-it-now mentality drummed into American consumers by the relentless marketing efforts of the credit card industry. Ads have literally convinced Americans it's OK to spend what they don't have, a notion unthinkable just a generation ago. Just put it on plastic, it will all work out, the thinking goes.

more...

[RawMaterials]

10. This generation gap

Could lead to the next great depression.
Because the people in charge of budgets have never known anything but a rising stock market, and the last of the people that do remember the great depression start to die off.

Sounds familiar (privatizing SS, deficit spending, increased consumer debt)

[54anickel]

12. Yep, they saw the "magic" in action after '87 along with the creation of

the PPT. They are certain a 30's style crash can never happen again. Perhaps they are correct. Rather than stealing your money in a crash, the "plutocrats" have devised a system that bleeds you dry little by little so it's barely noticed. That sure is how it seems to be working. :evilgrin:

[RawMaterials]

22. It depresses me to think of how i have to pay

250$ a month for the next 20 years to pay for my college degree. especially when everything about investing (compound interest and average returns of 8-9%) that amount of money in 20 years would be a small fortune. But hey i guess I invested in myself, especially when The Bachelors degree is the new high school diploma, and ill probably have to take out more loans to get a masters.

[54anickel]

32. You made a wise investment in yourself, especially if you are fairly

young. Me, I'm considered an "old fart" - especially in my field.

I am a firm believer and practitioner of life-long learning. I got into IT (from accounting) just before the transition from central to distributed computing and the dawn of the PC. I was always acquiring certifications and skills to stay up to date on the bleeding edge of technology, but never went beyond the Associates degree.

The younger people I worked with would say, "I don't need a degree - look at you". I always told them to get that degree anyway if they wanted to secure a future in the industry. They would need it when the industry hit a slump in the future - and it would hit a slump someday.

I didn't heed my own advice. Although I was in the industry for many, many years - my heart wasn't in it. IT was never a match for my personality and interests. I stayed because I was damned good at it (driven by my own obsession for perfection - a bad trait - rather than a love for the field) and I couldn't pass up the money. The money was damned good!!!

I never let myself "know" how much money I was really making. I used payroll savings and 401K deductions keep my "take home" deposit to my checking account right around the same amount I used to make while in accounting - with occasional annual COLAs of course.

That savings came in handy a few years back when I wanted to move my aging parents back from FL to care for them in their last years. I was able to afford an addition to the house, and was later able to take an extended leave under the FMLA to care for my father in his last weeks. Sure, it chewed into my savings - but what a wonderful and rewarding way to spend it.

The savings has also made my past 16 months of unemployment fairly easy to swallow while I took the time to work through a bout of depression (lots of losses over 4 years) and decide what I wanna be when I grow up.

Well, now that I've run on much longer than I anticipated, I just hope you aren't "depressed" over the money you have invested in yourself. Education, whether for a specific degree or otherwise, is never a waste. Life-long learning is what it's all about!

[RawMaterials]

38. Thanks for the post

Its funny relay. I'm in IT I'm young, my employer is great they will pay for any further education related to work,and my bosses boss(small company) tells me to think about an accounting degree because That would be the best route for me to succeed in the company. so i guess I'm kind of reversing your work history.

I try to save what i can and i even invest a small amount. i save about 250$ and invest 100$ monthly. all extra money goes to paying off debts(CC,and student loans) CC got payed of right before Christmas. have not used credit cards to buy anything since college.

[54anickel]

43. Word of caution in these days - don't look only to the best route within

your current company for success. That's what I focused on while staying on that bleeding edge educational track. It was great for my (also small) company. But it sort of bit me in the ass while looking for another job.

Heh, he honestly said to go into accounting? So much of that is being outsourced these days - whether to companies here or overseas. Strange recommendation. :shrug:

[RawMaterials]

46. I don't think he meant to switch out of IT

But just to be diversified with all sides of the financial side of our business. It makes some sense if I'm going to move up to become a IT manager or even To a CIO type position i should have more knowledge then just IT, But who knows these days. :shrug:

[54anickel]

49. Oh, that way. Yep, absolutely. My background in accounting helped

me quite a bit. But accounting was also part of my Associates degree in IT, thought it would be included in any IT degree. Then again, I drew more from my work experience in bean counting than what I was taught as part of the AAS degree.

[RawMaterials]

50. my IT degree had nothing to do with

Accounting or budgeting kind of scary huh.

[54anickel]

52. Scary indeed! I couldn't imagine doing many of the tasks associated

with my job without some knowledge of accounting. And budgeting was a must while I was "clawing my way up" in management.

[patcox2]

59. The degree will add way more than $250 a month to your income.

And in 10-15 years, due to inflation and your increasing earning power, $250 a month will be a laughable sum to you. Inflation is the friend of the debtor.

[RawMaterials]

7. Pre-Market Update and Blather 8:37 EST

Market Update

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Still shaping up to be a relatively flat open for the indices... Bristol-Myers (BMY) could be in focus after reports suggest it may sell its Excedrin line for as much as $1 bln... Monsanto (MON) has matched analysts' Q1 (Nov) EPS forecasts of $0.13 and reaffirmed FY05 (Aug) guidance while American International Group (AIG) has hiked its dividend by 67%... Crude oil has fallen $0.37 to $43.54/bbl in pre-market trading

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market... Investors appear to be taking a more cautious approach in pre-market trading following two straight sessions that opened higher only to close much lower... Weakness in overseas markets following renewed inflation fears fueled by the Fed's meeting minutes and a lack of market-moving news is also contributing to a somewhat uneventful start as investors await Dec ISM services data (10:00 ET) and weekly oil inventories (10:30 ET)

6:24AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0.

6:24AM: FTSE...4811.50...-35.50...-0.7%. DAX...4254.76...-35.74...-0.8%.

6:24AM: Nikkei...11437.52...-80.23...-0.7%. Hang Seng...13764.36...-281.54...

[54anickel]

9. Dow Industrial Stocks Decline in Europe; Home Depot Shares Fall

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a6yPG1DclEmo&refer=us

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks declined in Europe on speculation the Federal Reserve may speed up the pace of interest-rate increases, hurting corporate profits. General Motors Corp. and Home Depot Inc. shares dropped in Germany.

``Growth will slow as interest rates rise,'' said Alison Porter, who oversees $800 million in stocks as head of U.S. equities at Britannic Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. She's been selling technology stocks and buying health-care shares that she declined to specify.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in March added 0.2 to 1191.2 as of 10:50 a.m. in London. Dow Average futures fell 4 to 10,644 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures retreated 0.5 to 1582. Nineteen of 27 Dow stocks trading in Europe fell.

U.S. stocks declined yesterday as the Fed disclosed that policy makers saw interest rates as too low to curtail inflation and expressed concern about ``excessive risk-taking'' in markets. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight lending rate a quarter- point to 2.25 percent at its Dec. 14 meeting for its fifth increase since June.

more...

[54anickel]

8. Bond Strategists: Pimco Bets on TIPS, Bunds in 2005

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aufDdyVjdYUs&refer=us

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, recommended fixed-income investors in 2005 buy U.S. government inflation-linked securities, German and other European government bonds, and keep a portion of their assets in cash.

Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, wrote in his monthly outlook for January that bond investors should avoid both investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds and reduce holdings of mortgage-backed securities.

``2005 will witness a changing environment in some ways -- slower global growth, somewhat higher short-term rates,'' Gross wrote. ``Bond market returns of 3 to 4 percent may be all an investor can rationally expect.''

The U.S. Federal Reserve won't raise its benchmark interest rate much higher than inflation, Gross wrote, suggesting that the central bank may target a real interest rate -- the rate after inflation is taken into account -- of 0.5 percent.

``Low short rates are the monetary policy tool of necessity,'' he said. ``Whether the Fed stops at 2.5, 2.75 or 3.5 percent is really more of a debate as to the future of U.S. inflation, not the fact that real short rates must stay down for a long, long time.''

more...

[54anickel]

13. Just a Singer in a Rock & Roll Band (Gross)

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2005/IO_Jan_05.htm

I spent all day writing this Outlook and all I got for it was this lousy T-Shirt! Actually I’m referring to the IO that just hit my library trashcan. That one just didn’t cut it, and this one may not either! Writing Outlooks is getting a little bit harder these days. “Don’t do this, don’t do that, can’t you reeeead the signs,” scream the in-house lawyers. Go easy on Iraq, careful about women and minorities, eliminate references to politics, religion, and sex, and for God’s sake don’t mention any of our clients or their products, which by the way knocks out about 250 of the Fortune 500 and every major industry in the U.S. Actually, as you might have noticed, that hasn’t stopped me from stirring up the politically and legally correct waters in recent years. But I suppose I tiptoe a little more carefully these days, if only in recognition that PIMCO’s a franchise and not a start-up and there are now many more livelihoods at stake than my own. Renting a soapbox right across the street in Newport’s Fashion Island could be a much less expensive way to vent my iconoclastic views I suppose.

And too, as many of you already believe, I am – in Moody Blues’ parlance – just a singer in a rock and roll band. There’s nothing about being a bond market wiz that necessarily qualifies me to opine on world events, or anything else for that matter. The purpose of these introductory paragraphs, however, has always been to liven-up a somewhat unfathomable and inherently boring topic and in that I undoubtedly have succeeded beyond someone’s wildest dreams. The interesting problem I find these days – besides the untouchable topics – is that I’m trying to write less about me, and more about you and human interaction, but finding it very difficult to do. I tried to write a few paragraphs once without ever using an “I,” “me” or “mine” and found it almost impossible to do and still sound interesting. Mark Twain undoubtedly could have done it but then, as Senator Bentsen might have suggested, I’m no Mark Twain. As such, I guess I’ll have to stick to the approach used by my wife Sue on many of our frequent weekend walks around the neighborhood. After discussing an hour’s worth of her problems she’ll turn to me and say “But enough about me, let’s talk about you. What do you think about me?” Ah, humor at its best. It’s Sue that should be writing these Outlooks if only she had the time.

Actually, Sue might stumble a little bit when it comes to the meat and bones of bond market strategy. While she has mastered the interest rates up/bond prices down maxim, she couldn’t distinguish a Bund from a Bond if she met one on the street, but then that’s the only thing I can do that she can’t. And it was Bunds, not bonds that made the performance difference for us in 2004. That along with TIPS and some strategically timed forays into emerging markets. In a year that confounded most bond managers, because of falling, instead of rising intermediate and long-term rates, we managed to avoid extreme duration statements and instead profited by shifting money into reflationary beneficiaries in the U.S. (TIPS) and near deflationary economies outside our borders (Bunds).

2005 will witness a changing environment in some ways – slower global growth, somewhat higher short-term rates – but the dominant moneymaking themes in the bond market should be the following: 1) The Fed stays relatively low, 2) China revalues its currency, 3) Spread product underperforms, 4) Europe remains sick, and 5) Cash is Prince.

Let me elaborate:

more...

[54anickel]

11. Deloitte & Touche Hired As Fannie Mae Auditor

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48730-2005Jan4.html

Fannie Mae yesterday announced the hiring of Deloitte & Touche LLP as its new outside auditor, two weeks after firing KPMG LLP in the wake of accounting errors that could cost the housing finance company as much as $9 billion in previously posted profit.

Deloitte & Touche is not unfamiliar with Fannie's accounting problems. Deloitte was instrumental in a year-long investigation by Fannie's regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, that uncovered the problems in the fall.

"Their expertise will be critical as we move forward on the company's restatement process," Thomas P. Gerrity, a Fannie director who chairs the board's audit committee, said in a statement. Charles V. Greener, a company spokesman, declined to comment on whether Deloitte's work for OFHEO factored into its selection.

The chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission said last month that Fannie had "developed its own unique methodology" for accounting for complex financial contracts known as derivatives and had misapplied accounting rules for certain expenses.

Fannie's choices were limited...

more...

[54anickel]

14. China Cuts Money Supply Goal to 15% to Curb Inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ac4r2z3IVk2k&refer=top_world_news

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank cut its target for growth in the amount of money circulating in the world's fastest-growing major economy and signaled it may raise borrowing costs to curb inflation.

``The central bank should fully take advantage of the function of interest rates in adjusting the economy,'' Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told a bank meeting yesterday in Nanning, Guangxi province, according to a statement.

The People's Bank of China plans to cap growth in M2, the nation's broadest measure of money supply, at 15 percent this year, compared with a 17 percent target for 2004 and actual growth last year of about 14.5 percent, Zhou said.

Global metals prices slumped after the statement, partly on concern demand will slow from the world's largest consumer of copper and second-biggest user of aluminum. The target suggests Premier Wen Jiabao won't relax policies designed to gradually slow an economy that grew at a 9.1 percent annual pace in the third quarter, government economists such as Xia Bin said.

snip>

Exchange Rate

The yuan would rise to 7.862 against the dollar in a year if freely traded from the pegged rate of about 8.30, a gain of 5.3 percent, forward contracts showed at 10:57 a.m. in Hong Kong. The implied rate was at 7.8357 late yesterday in Asia.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.73 Change +0.16 (+0.19%)

One Report today:

Jan 5 10:00 AM
ISM Services Dec
report -
briefing.com 61.0
market 61.0
last report 61.3
revised -

The petroleum inventories are released at 10:30.

54anickel, you have done a great job on the post - sorry I'm so late to the party this a.m.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

Great to see you UIA! I was getting a bit concerned when you weren't

around early on. And thanks, it took a bit of editing in the preview mode, but I believe I've got it all in there correctly.

My dog gave me a dirty look when the alarm went off this morning - HA!

[UpInArms]

23. I had an insomnia bout

in the middle of the night, but managed to fall asleep again and then slept and slept and slept :yawn:

here's a little something to make you smile (?) this morning:

Psalm 2004

Bush is my shepherd, I shall be in want.
He maketh me to lie down on park benches.
He leadeth me beside the still factories.
He restoreth my doubts about the Republican Party.
He leadeth me onto the paths of unemployment for his cronies¹ sake.
Yea, though no weapons of mass destruction have been found,
He makest me continue to fear Evil.
His tax cuts for the rich and his deficit spending discomfort me.
He anointest me with never-ending debt:
Verily my days of savings and assets are kaput.
Surely poverty and hard living shall follow me all the days of his
administration,
And my jobless child shall dwell in my basement forever

[54anickel]

26. SNARF!!!! ROFLMAO, That's the best read I've had in quite a while!

[54anickel]

16. College loans increasingly burdensome

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0501050172jan05,1,5183918.story?coll=chi-business-hed

snip>

A 2002 survey of recent graduates by student loan company Nellie Mae found the average student loan burden for a bachelor's degree was $18,900, up 66 percent from five years earlier.

Thanks to low interest rates and increased initial salaries, the average amount recent graduates were spending on debt repayment was 7 percent of their annual incomes. That number has been fairly unchanged for the last 10 years and is considered manageable.

But many graduates' debt burdens are well above average. And those who follow passions that aren't bankable, make a few financial missteps or are just plain unlucky can find their debts are out of control.

Part of the problem is that bachelor's degrees alone don't always cut it in today's workplace.

"The bachelor's degree has become the new high school degree," said Tamara Draut at Demos, a New York-based think tank. A graduate degree is necessary to reach the top level of more and more professions.

more...

I'm finding a bachelor's degree is necessary just to get an entry-level job in my profession (IT) these days! Of course, my difficulties could also have something to do with my age. Whatever the reason, I've adjusted to my underemployed life - it does have it's perks, if you can afford the reduction in income. B-)

[UpInArms]

17. This can't go on forever - so it won't

http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5094396-103677,00.html

The beginning of each year is high season for economic forecasters. With few exceptions, Wall Street economists try to give as upbeat an interpretation as the data will allow: gloom-and-doom forecasts do little to sell stocks. But even the salesmen are predicting a weaker American economy in 2005 than in 2004.

The biggest global economic uncertainty is the price of oil. Oil producers failed to anticipate the growth of demand in China. Supply side problems in the Middle East (and Nigeria, Russia, and Venezuela) are also playing a role, while George Bush's misadventure in Iraq has brought further instability.

High oil prices are a drain on America, Europe, Japan, and other oil-importing countries. America's oil-import bill over the past year alone is estimated to have risen by around $75bn. If there were any assurance that prices would remain permanently above even $40 a barrel, alternative energy sources would be developed. But we are now in the worst of all worlds - prices so high that they damage the global economy, but uncertainty so severe that the investments needed to bring prices down are not being made.

Meanwhile, the world's central bankers have been trained to focus exclusively on inflation. Many will recall how oil-price increases in the 1970s fuelled rapid inflation, and will want to show their resolve not to let it happen again. Interest rates will rise, and one economy after another will slow. The march towards higher interest rates has already begun in the US and elsewhere.

For the past three years, falling interest rates have been the engine of growth, as households took on more debt to refinance their mortgages and used some of the savings to consume. Central bankers are hoping that this will not play out in reverse - that higher interest rates will not dampen consumption. Hope may not be enough. House prices could well decline; at the very least, the rate of increase is likely to slow down.

This is only one of the uncertainties facing the US economy. Clearly, some of the growth in 2004 was due to provisions that encouraged investment in that year - when it mattered for US electoral politics - at the expense of 2005. Then there are America's huge fiscal and trade deficits, which jeopardise future American generations' well being, and represent a drag on the current US economy.

...more...

[54anickel]

19. Gotta love the last 2 paragraphs in that one...

snip>

China - and Asia more generally - represents the bright spot on the horizon. It may be too soon to be sure, but prospects for taming the excessive exuberance of a year ago appear good, bringing economic growth rates to sustainable levels that would be the envy of most other countries.

By contrast, the world's other major economies will probably not begin performing up to potential in the next 12 months. They are all caught between the problems of the present and the mistakes of the past: in Europe, between institutions designed to avoid inflation when the problem is growth and employment; in America, between massive household and government debt and the demands of fiscal and monetary policy; and everywhere, between America's failure to use the world's scarce natural resources wisely and its failure to achieve peace and stability in the Middle East.

[UpInArms]

18. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures trade slips a bit and now suggests a lower open for the cash market... Possibly contributing to recent weakness has been a Q3 (Dec) revenue warning from chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX)... Some notable ratings changes include upgrades on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Genentech (DNA) and General Dynamics (GD) while coverage has been initiated on Google (GOOG) with a Neutral at Merrill Lynch

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Still shaping up to be a relatively flat open for the indices... Bristol-Myers (BMY) could be in focus after reports suggest it may sell its Excedrin line for as much as $1 bln... Monsanto (MON) has matched analysts' Q1 (Nov) EPS forecasts of $0.13 and reaffirmed FY05 (Aug) guidance while American International Group (AIG) has hiked its dividend by 67%... Crude oil has fallen $0.37 to $43.54/bbl in pre-market trading

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market... Investors appear to be taking a more cautious approach in pre-market trading following two straight sessions that opened higher only to close much lower...

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower in narrow overnight trading as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1581.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 1547.86 is the next likely downside target. I would not rule out a short covering bounce today as the index might try to consolidate some of this week's losses. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 2.00 pt. at 1580.50 as of 5:42 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was mostly steady in quiet overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1181.58 is the next downside target. The March S&P 500 Index was steady at 1191 as of 5:44 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to slightly firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

20. Just sort of headed back down since the 8:30 blather...n/t

[54anickel]

21. THE STOCK MARKET'S RALLY COULD BE WINDING DOWN

http://www.nypost.com/business/37722.htm

snip>

But the impressive market rise that began nearly two months ago and accelerated in mid-December is built on such a flimsy foundation that merely pulling the December page off the calendar could create a stiff enough headwind to bring the rally to a halt.

I wrote back on Nov. 18 that one of the few guarantees in life was that "Wall Street will try to push the stock market higher in the next few weeks." It's a given, like hearing too many Christmas songs in December.


Because December is typically a very quiet month because of the holidays, the pros can usually push the market higher without much interference from either corporate events or committed sellers.

The day before that Nov. 18 column appeared the Dow had closed at just 10,549. That was a mere 5 points higher than where it began the year, and it only had that much of a gain because of a big post-election rally. People seem to forget just how badly the market had been doing in 2004. When will there be a correction?

If 2004 was a typical pattern, it could come any day now. Stocks had a nice rally in the first few sessions of 2004 before going into a January through early-November swoon. Investors might do well to learn a lesson from recent history.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. 9:42 EST markets are open

Dow 10,650.81 +20.03 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,107.42 -0.44 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,190.35 +2.30 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289 +0.06 (+0.14%)

NYSE Volume 75,966,000
Nasdaq Volume 204,304,000

(edited for html)

[UpInArms]

27. adding blather

9:40AM: Stocks surprisingly open on an upbeat note, despite futures indications suggesting otherwise... Investors have so far viewed yesterday's sell off as somewhat oversold, as the Fed's overall view on the economy, represented in the FOMC's minutes, was clearly upbeat and relatively consistent with the 2005 outlooks established by many market pundits...

At 10:00 ET, December ISM Services (consensus 61.0) will be released and, since non-manufacturing payrolls have made up 99.6% of payroll gains over the last 6 months, the ISM's employment component should be a focal point for investors ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls data...

[54anickel]

25. Preview 2005: Make My Day, and I’ll Pay You Back Tomorrow

http://www.fallstreet.com/jan405.php

big snip>

In the case of Yahoo, the returns from the business for every dollar invested are pitiful, which makes owning the stock risky. As for the rewards of owning Yahoo, the rational conclusions are that shareholders are playing the greater fool and/or are so knowledgeable about how Yahoo will be performing many years from now that they do not mind holding a loser for some time (using current growth estimates Yahoo will be trading at less than 20-times non expensed earnings 7-years from now. The company, like all U.S. companies, will be forced to expense stock options in June 2005). As for explanations from the mainstream business media that ‘Yahoo shareholders are winners because the company’s stock price has rallied’, these celebratory viewpoints bring back memories of the 1990s. Shareholders are, by definition, part owners of a business. Accordingly, how happy would you be if your $52.49 billion business returned $542 million over the last 12 months (or 1.032%)?

Suffice to say, the 1990s stock market mania didn’t happen because investors were a little off on their ROE calculations. Rather, the 1990s mania happened because many unknowledgeable investors chased stock prices to absurd levels. Since the 1990s ended (?) valuation levels have generally come down. However, the 1990s participation mania is still alive and well today. By ‘participation mania’ that is to say that very few 1990s newcomers have left the markets. Indeed, the vast majority of mania owners are still handing capital over to fund managers that purchase companies like Yahoo at any price today.

What is becoming increasingly clear that the participation mania will not end until a severe U.S. recession arrives and completely changes the average investor’s opinion on stock ownership.

As for the last U.S. economic recession, it followed none of the traits of previous recessions. Rather, U.S. consumers welcomed the 2000/01 business led recession by borrowing and spending more money, and Greenspan/Bush kept recovery hopes smoldering with unsustainable stimulus policies until growth caught fire in mid-2003. This fire is still being fueled by low U.S. interest rates and easy money policies today, and now Bush wants to allow Social Security funds into stocks.

In sum, if the dollar doesn’t collapse, U.S. interest rates do not rise all that much, and more greater fools can be corralled by cowboy analysts, the optimists may be right about 2005. The alternative is that U.S. interest rates rise, a series of asset bubbles (stocks, home prices) get knocked down a notch and the stock market Yahoos banking on good times run astray. As for the U.S. dollar, its destruction should not be longed for...At the end of the day gold needs to be priced in something or the pawn companies have no method of acquiring scrap gold from desperate U.S. consumers.

[UpInArms]

28. When Not To Outsource

http://www.forbes.com/2005/01/05/cx_pp_0105outsourcing.html

NEW YORK - Outsourcing is often viewed in black and white terms--a boon for corporate America and a bust for U.S. workers. Every job and every business strategy is seen as potential fodder for the outsourcing mill, with the assumption that the cost savings reaped from the practice will simply pour back into the company coffers.

Not so fast. Companies are beginning to realize that there are plenty of cases in which outsourcing is not the best business strategy--even when it comes to manufacturing, a realm that's generally considered well suited to the practice.

TPI, a consulting firm based in the Woodlands, Tex., often tells clients to steer clear of outsourcing. "When people come to me with their outsourcing ideas, I usually advise them against 30% or 40% of the initiatives that they had in mind," says TPI project director Paul Schmidt, "even though that doesn't maximize my sales."

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. job cuts edge up in December - report

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=7244766§ion=investing

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. planned job cuts rose in December, making it the second worst month for layoffs last year, according to a report released Wednesday.

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 109,045 layoffs in December, up from 104,530 in November.

Still, for the year as whole job cuts decreased compared with 2003, and Challenger said there was reason to be optimistic in 2005.

<snip>

On Friday, the government will report on the U.S. employment situation in December. Economists polled by Reuters forecast an increase of 175,000 jobs in non-farm payrolls for the month.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

41. US Dec layoffs up 4.3 pct to 109,045

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1104938129-9e32d306-24794

WASHINGTON (AFX) - US corporations accelerated their job cuts in December, bringing the total number of announced job reductions to more than 1 mln for the fourth straight year, outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said. Job cut announcements increased 4.3 pct in December to 109,045, the fourth month above 100,000, the Chicago-based firm said. That's the highest total since January 2004 and the first time in nearly three years that planned layoffs have exceeded 100,000 for four straight months

For all of 2004, 1.04 mln jobs were planned to be eliminated by major corporations, down 16 pct from 2003's 1.24 mln. In the fourth quarter, layoffs increased 25 pct over third-quarter levels to 315,415

The spike in layoffs at the end of the year does not mean the economy is faltering, as job cutting has become a permanent part of the corporate cost-management mix, according to John Challenger, the CEO of the firm

...more...

[UpInArms]

71. Layoffs rose 17% in December over 2003

http://chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=15065

(Reuters) - Planned U.S. job cuts rose in December, making it the second-worst month for layoffs last year, but the employment outlook for the new year is brighter, according to a report released Wednesday.

Consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 109,045 layoffs, up from 104,530 in November. The cuts 2004 pushed the year's total to 1,039,735.

<snip>

Workers in the United States are not ignorant of companies' plans to cut payrolls. According to the Hudson Highland Group , a professional staffing firm, employee confidence dropped in December due to increased expectations of staff layoffs and concerns about personal finances.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. 10:13 EST numbers and blather (ISM numbers included)

Dow 10,674.53 +43.75 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,114.66 +6.80 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,191.93 +3.88 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289 +0.06 (+0.14%)

NYSE Volume 252,062,000
Nasdaq Volume 482,183,000

10:00AM: Market shows resilience in the early going as blue chips hold a slight lead over their Nasdaq counterparts... Materials stocks (+0.9%) have rebounded after falling 2.3% due to a stronger dollar while energy, networking, financial and retail have also shown early strength... Airline (-4.4%), however, has extended yesterday's 2.9% decline, while semiconductor, biotech, health care and utility have also been weak...

Separately, ISM just released December non-manufacturing survey results of 63.1 (consensus 61.0), keeping the indices at improved levels as the employment component came in at 54.9 versus 55.0 in November...NYSE Adv/Dec 850/1658, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 854/1656

[UpInArms]

31. US consumer confidence fell in Jan 2 week-report

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=7239487§ion=investing

NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters) - A weekly survey of U.S. consumer confidence showed confidence slipped slightly in the latest week but started 2005 at the average level of the past 19 years of surveys.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index -- in which the Washington Post replaced Money magazine as a sponsor, slipped to -9 in the week ended Jan. 2 from -7 in the previous poll.

Two of the three components of the index fell in the latest week, the group said on Tuesday. The number of Americans who had a positive view of the national economy fell to 41 percent from 43 percent in the prior week.

The percentage of consumers who thought it was a good time to purchase things fell to 38 percent from 39 percent the previous week.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

33. Circuit City same-store sales fall 5.8%

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Circuit City Stores Inc., the No. 2 U.S. electronics retailer, on Wednesday reported a 5.8 percent drop in December sales at stores open at least a year as customer traffic fell below last year's levels.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/05/news/fortune500/circuit_city.reut/index.htm

[RawMaterials]

34. Wendy's same-store sales fall 2.1%

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wendy's International Inc. on Wednesday said December sales at company-owned U.S. hamburger restaurants open at least 15 months fell 2.1 percent.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/05/news/midcaps/wendys.reut/index.htm

[54anickel]

35. Hmm, the charts don't seem to be updating. WTF?...n/t

[54anickel]

37. They aren't updating at the source either. Whew, thought I might have

messed up Ozy's source! That's a relief anyway.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/data/

[UpInArms]

39. here's my fave chart link source

(if you hit refresh they become current)

http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/

[54anickel]

47. Thanks UIA. Looks like Ozy's embedded ones are working now. n/t

[UpInArms]

36. Energy Dept posts fall in crude stk, rise in products

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38357.4420633102-830660799&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- February crude in New York is down 56 cents at $43.35 a barrel after the Energy Department said distillate supplies climbed 2 million barrels to 121.1 million for the week ended Dec. 31. Gasoline stocks were also up 2 million barrels at 214.3 million barrels. But crude inventories fell 3.3 million barrels to total 291.8 million. February heating oil is down 4.66 cents at $1.20 a gallon and February unleaded gasoline is down 1.71 cents at $1.155 a gallon.

[54anickel]

40. A snippet from The Daily Reckoning

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/sub/signuphub.cfm?List=DailyReckon&sourceid=321Gold

There must be some surprise coming. Americans now believe that the trillions in debts they owe to foreigners (and to themselves) will be calmly marked down by inflation and dollar devaluation. "It's our dollar," they tell the foreigners, "but it's your problem." But lenders do not sit still while their assets are marked down. They bolt for the exits. A panic out of the dollar would surprise nearly everyone - triggering immediate and unpleasant consequences for the whole world economy.

But people need dollars - almost desperately. That is why credit binges do not typically end in inflation. Debt loads are not usually lightened so easily. People need dollars to pay the interest on loans...and to pay back the principle. What usually happens at the end of a credit boom is that money becomes harder and harder to get. Debtors are stretched; they can no longer increase spending. Businesses have surplus capacity already; they cannot profitably add factories and workers. Capital spending slows down. Consumer spending slows too. Money becomes scarce.

So, here, we find another surprise...instead of seeing their debts eased by inflation and a dollar decline, Americans are likely to find the burden heavier than before. While the dollar might be worth less overseas... at home, it could be more precious than ever. Many may find it hard to pay their bills. Many credits - backed by people who are no longer good for the money - will become worthless. Others, such as U.S. Treasuries, will be sought after.

We have lived through the greatest credit expansion in history. On the other side of it lies a great credit contraction, about which nearly everything is unknown. When will it arrive? What form will it take? Who will be its victims? Its heroes? We don't know, but we vaguely expect it to be similar in many ways to what Japan has gone through for the last 15 years. Stocks and real estate have been pushed up not by honest toil and disciplined saving, but by reckless leverage. We read yesterday, that J.P. Morgan had set a new record for lending money - arranging more than $2 trillion worth of loans last year...or more than 50% greater than the year before. The loans, we learned from press reports, were bought by mutual funds! Oh, what have we come to, we thought to ourselves; more and more money is lent to less and less creditworthy borrowers by more and more lenders who have less and less to lose if they go bad. Our guess is that they will go bad; in fact, we'd bet on it.

[RawMaterials]

42. Dows 10 worst days looks like October is not a good month

Rank Loss Date
1 -22.6% October 19, 1987
2 -12.8% October 28, 1929
3 -11.7% October 29, 1929
4 -9.9% November 6, 1929
5 -8.7% December 18, 1899
6 -8.4% August 12, 1932
7 -8.3% March 14, 1907
8 -8.0% October 26, 1987
9 -7.8% July 21, 1933
10 -7.8% October 18, 1937

[RawMaterials]

44. what exactly happened in 1987??

October 19 - 30 very volatile

5 10.1% October 21, 1987

[UpInArms]

48. here's a good resource page full of graphs

http://www.sniper.at/stock-market-crash-of-1987.htm

the dollar was dropping (hmmm.... looks like now :eyes: )

[SuperDem1776]

88. KICK!

[UpInArms]

90. welcome to DU SuperDem1776!

and glad to have you here at the Stock Market Watch :hi:

[54anickel]

91. Hmm, afraid SuperDem1776 has left the building - didn't last too long.

[UpInArms]

92. seems like there's a lot of those

popping up around the board these days

:shrug:

[54anickel]

45. Oil to Prevail Over Gold (Jim Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie010505.html

It is said widely that a picture is worth a thousand words. How about three pictures? These pictures are not crystal clear. They require the fine lens taken from the technical analysis work bench. A deeper discussion is included in the January issue of the Hat Trick Letter, which also features the controversial topic of how the queer version of US monetary expansion actually has yet to engineer the systemic price and wage inflation witnessed in the 1970 decade. The gold bull market has vivid missing links which need to be recognized. An argument that fast rising money supply, easy terms for staggering new credit, widespread speculation, and central bank currency debauchery will therefore easily bring about a gold explosion makes for shallow economic analysis. Yet, such analysis prevails in the gold camps. China interrupts the Fed's reflation rescue project founded in desperation !!!

The gold community must pay attention to the queer version of US monetary expansion, and how it actually gives a giant assist to secular deflation. The term "secular deflation" refers to a long-term cyclical phenomenon whereby bubbles burst, debt is defaulted, bankruptcies mushroom, jobs are lost, and misfortune becomes an economy. Many (including me) regard the 2000 stock bust as the beginning of such a dreadful period. The declining USDollar is the standard bearer measure of a shrinking economy, as costs have risen. One might regard the damage to have been inflicted primarily upon the real economy, where things are built, not the financial sector, where assets are speculated upon in "sweat-free" work. The malinvestment of new money explains why gold is rising from the strong buoyancy of the falling USDollar, and from correlated price rises in metals (copper, platinum, steel) generally, but dragged down by the lack of pricing power, lack of finished product price inflation, absent strong job growth, and inadequate income growth. Seven steps are necessary to go from big money supply growth to a big rise in the gold price. The middle steps are missing.

ENERGY STOCKS WILL OUTPERFORM GOLD MINER STOCKS

In a new era of depleting oil reserves, troublesome oil patch labor, violent oil delivery systems, and declining USDollar, crude oil has risen far more than analysts in the mainstream community have expected. The gold community on the other hand, has trumpeted the notion that necessities will rise in price far more than discretionary items. So food and energy will grow more expensive, even as consumer electronics and clothing remain cheap and plentiful. In the chart below, showing the ratio of oil producer stock index to the unhedged gold miner stock index, a Head & Shoulders bullish pattern is evident to the trained eye. The neckline level of 2.9 has shown support with four touch points. The shoulder breakout level of 3.6 has shown resistance so far with six touch points. The head formed last year in autumn 2003 with an impulse low. Note how the 50-week moving average provided upside resistance around April 2003, now to provide downside support as it did around November 2004 recently. The stochastix indicator previews a little more softening and consolidation before the breakout in this ratio. A breakout looms highly likely in the next couple months. What it means is that oil producer stocks will outperform gold miner stocks. Both will do well, but energy stocks will do better.

snip>

GOLD HAS STRUGGLED

The gold community routinely puts blame on downdrafts to the gold price on ambushes from the gold cartel, and regular dumping by central banks. While those shadowy figures might indeed harm the gold price with assaults of paper gold in the futures pits and highly publicized physical dumps, little attention is given to other perhaps far more important forces. In a new era of total debt overload, failed reflation strategy, Asian drain of job income, and a tight ceiling on price structures due to Asian industrial imports into the US Economy, gold has risen, but not as much as most analysts expected in the gold community. Gold will someday surpass $1000 per ounce. Gold should have zoomed past $500 by now, given all the hoopla attached to easy money, ripe speculation, rising commodities, falling USDollar, and generally pervasive currency debauchery. So why has gold not risen much at all? In my view, its slow difficult ascent is due to the failed Federal Reserve reflation outcome. New money goes to unwise investments which aid the secular deflation underway. That is why. The gold community is negligent in understanding or reporting this phenomenon. They engage constantly in routine knee-jerk shallow analysis, which does NOT track the path of new money.

New money adds to the weight of American rooftops, not American living room fireplaces. A cave-in is more likely than effervescent activity from rejuvenating heat sources. New money adds to Asian factory output and jobs, not American. A revival in spending is underway in Asia, not in the real economy of the USA. The contrast between the real economy and the financial sector within the US Economy grows more stark by the month. In a nutshell, traction has not been achieved within the US Economy, even as staggering stimulus has taken root in Asia. In the previous stimulus cyclical marches in the 1980's and 1990's, jobs were created and wages rose, while prices bubbled higher and hefty price profit margins were realized. Asia now interrupts that process, yet the link to sluggish gold prices is not recognized. Look for gold to falter, and see its price fall to the 420 to 425 range. Its relationship with the USDollar and the cost-squeezed US Economy is explored more fully in the January HTL issue. New lows for the DXY index were NOT matched by higher gold prices recently. Get ready for a surprising USDollar bounce in coming weeks, supported by technical factors, NOT fundamental factors.

more...

[UpInArms]

51. 11:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,666.11 +35.33 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,107.55 -0.31 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,190.38 +2.33 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.284 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 513,384,000
Nasdaq Volume 844,882,000

11:00AM: Mixed weekly oil inventories data invites some selling pressure as the indices now trade in split fashion... While investors have used distillate stockpiles as the focal point in the Energy Dept's weekly report for the last several weeks, not even a 2.0 mln barrel increase has been enough to sustain aggressive buying interest, as analysts had expected distillate fuel to remain unchanged last week... It appears evident that weekly crude oil inventories, which fell 3.3 mln barrels versus forecasts of -1.5 mln barrels, have reclaimed added importance as OPEC production cuts come to fruition...

Meanwhile, crude oil prices have fallen almost a buck ($43.00 -$0.91) but continue to remain volatile in the early going...NYSE Adv/Dec 1036/1906, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1078/1704

10:30AM: Stocks continue to hold their own and sport modest gains for the day following strong non-manufacturing data... When the December ISM Services survey came in at a stronger than expected 63.1, versus economists' expectations of 61.0 and up from 61.3 in November, sellers remained on the sidelines... After further analysis, an employment component reading of 54.9, down slightly from 55.0 last month, appears to have provided a temporary reprieve for buyers as the market has been very sensitive to any signs of weakness in economic data, in particular, any employment related data...

interesting spike at exactly 11:00 :shrug:

[54anickel]

53. That was an interesting, but short lived spike

at 11:26 we're back down

Dow 10,641.05 +10.27 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,099.52 -8.34 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,187.78 -0.27 (-0.02%)
10-yr Bond 42.73 -0.10 (-0.23%)
30-yr Bond 48.66 -0.11 (-0.23%)
NYSE Volume 586,848,000
Nasdaq Volume 933,664,000

[UpInArms]

54. Dollar hits 3-week euro high, falls back

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9D03E0A7%2D9EC7%2D44D9%2DB3AA%2D3F4F422664C2%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The dollar hit its best level against the euro in three weeks before paring gains in U.S. trading Wednesday, amid heightened prospects that the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates.

The dollar's mostly technical-driven, early-year bounce from December's multiyear lows was accelerated by the release on Tuesday of minutes from the Fed's Dec. 14 policy meeting.

Currency analysts at Nomura Securities believe markets are interpreting the minutes as an indication that the Fed will not take a break in the tightening cycle.

"Hence, depending on the incoming data, all meetings for the foreseeable future are likely to deliver 25 basis point rate hikes."

Higher U.S. rates could draw more foreign capital to U.S. markets, a prospect that pushed the euro to as low as $1.3213 earlier. One euro was worth $1.3294 in recent trade.

The dollar gained initially against the Japanese yen, but had since turned negative. One dollar was worth 103.83 yen, a loss of 0.7 percent compared to where it stood in late U.S. trading Tuesday.

Currency traders said the inability of the dollar to extend its gains after an upbeat reading for a U.S. measure of the services economy could mean the dollar's three-day rally had gone too far without a pullback.

...more...

[54anickel]

55. Just another form of verbal intervention. Springing the minutes from

the last meeting early and unexpectedly to get a bounce going - just when the buck needed one. Meanwhile, where's my damned bluelight special in gold?!?!

[UpInArms]

56. my thoughts on that FOMC

release, also.

:shakesheadatstupidmarkets:

Bubbles Meanspin is going to blow their hopes next month :wrylaugh:

(need more icons :D )

[54anickel]

57. Yep, the markets will now be expecting a "hawkish" Fed, they'll be

taken back by the little "bantie hen" that shows up cackling golidocks and measured pace.

[54anickel]

58. 12:22, time for the luchtime peek

Dow 10,643.79 +13.01 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,097.47 -10.39 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,187.78 -0.27 (-0.02%)
10-yr Bond 42.67 -0.16 (-0.37%)
30-yr Bond 48.51 -0.26 (-0.53%)
NYSE Volume 792,962,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,213,056,000

12:05PM : Indices shrug off two day's of losses at the open but trade in split fashion midday as investors have little other than mixed oil inventories and strong ISM services data to digest... Weekly distillate inventories, which were expected to come in unchanged versus last week, rose 2.0 mln while crude supplies came in at -3.3 mln barrels, versus an expected decline of 1.5 mln barrels... The news has kept crude oil futures ($43.55/bbl -$0.36) under pressure but has done little to spur additional buying interest in stocks...
And while the December ISM Services survey came in at a stronger than expected 63.1 (consensus 61.0), up from 61.3 in November, the market basically looked past the data... Meanwhile, market internals have remained negative since the onset and buying opportunities have been few and far between, with the majority of interest being seen in blue chips while technology continues to struggle... Computer hardware (+0.7%) and disk drive (+0.7%), however, have shown strength while semiconductor has added a 1.0% decline to yesterday's 3.3% sell off following a revenue warning from chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX 27.75 -0.69)...

Financial (+0.2%) has shown relative strength while materials continues to recover the 2.3% it lost Tuesday, despite the dollar holding onto modest gains against the major currencies... The biggest laggard has been airline (-5.6%), following multiple downgrades from Merrill Lynch on the heels of Delta Air Lines (DAL 6.61 -0.70) plans to lower fees by as much as 50%... Energy, homebuilding, transportation and utility have also been weak... Treasuries, meanwhile, have held steady, with the benchmark 10-year note up 6 ticks to yield 4.26%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1007/2111, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 977/1965

11:30AM : More of the same for the averages as the blue chips and Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions as an overall bearish bias remains intact... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq continue to outpace advancers by a nearly 2 to 1 margin while down volumes on both the Big Board and Composite also hold a sufficient edge over up volumes... The Nasdaq, which had witnessed modest gains early on, has lost much of its ground and continues to hover near yesterday's low (2102) while the Dow, in contrast, has shown some resilience holding onto modest gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 996/1995, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1042/1823

The charts sort of look like this again:




And the buck is headed back down

Last trade 82.34 Change -0.23 (-0.28%)

Settle 82.57 Settle Time 23:37

Open 82.53 Previous Close 82.57

High 82.92 Low 82.30

Last tick: 2005-01-05 11:25:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

60. 12:39 downdate

Dow 10,621.26 -9.52 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,092.78 -15.08 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,185.54 -2.51 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.261 -0.22 (-0.51%)

NYSE Volume 854,679,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,290,096,000

[54anickel]

62. Ugh. What was that Julie posted last night? How the first 5 days go

is how the year will go - something to that effect.

[UpInArms]

63. adding blather

12:30PM: Market continues to trade with a tinge of caution, as blue chips try to offset broad-based weakness... On the Dow, American International Group (AIG 67.22 +0.97) has surged after the insurance giant said it would reward shareholders with a 67% increase in its quarterly dividend while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.10 +0.19) has climbed after it announced a set of products and partnerships for its digital entertainment strategy...

Adding some pressure to the price-weighted index, however, has been General Motors (GM 39.11 -0.78), following disappointing auto sales in December, as well as Alcoa (AA 30.06 -0.37) and Caterpillar (CAT 93.45 -0.57)...NYSE Adv/Dec 958/2203, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 880/2099

[UpInArms]

61. From the "It Breaks My Heart" or "Cry Me A River" department

Clear Channel among media decliners

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9400DA58%2DC8E8%2D4FFE%2DB30A%2DB79A748FB2B7%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Media and entertainment stocks were mostly lower Wednesday morning, including radio giant Clear Channel Communications, which stepped back modestly despite its announcement that it plans to outfit 95 percent of its stations in the top 100 markets with digital broadcast equipment within three years.

Inadequate reception has been one of the primary complaints of traditional radio listeners, and has played some role in the rising popularity of satellite radio.

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI: news, chart, profile) was up 5 cents to $7.57 after it said it would collaborate with Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile) on a video service it expects to launch by the second half of 2006, with two to three channels of content designed primarily for children to watch while riding in automobiles. Sirius rival XM Satellite Radio (XMSR: news, chart, profile) was down 60 cents at $34.75.

...more...

:nopity:

[54anickel]

64. poor reception, poor content, too many commercials, too much top

10 of whatever, too much packaged "news", too much BS.

Whazzamatta, can't compete with a superior product? Whaaa!

Hey, I've gotta to run for the day Marketeers! Need to transfer my gear from my little boo-hop car to the farm truck if I'm gonna make it back home later this afternoon. Snowing pretty good here now and my destination for the day has a very long driveway surrounded by open fields.

Hope to check back after the close. :hi:

[UpInArms]

65. drive carefully 54anickel!

and come back soon :hi:

[DoBotherMe]

66. Upper midwesterner here too!

S'posed to get 15 inches of snow by Thurs?! D ; )

[RawMaterials]

67. just lots of rain and flooding here in cincy n/m

[54anickel]

81. Whoa! 15 inches? Where are you? I'm in SE WI, we're looking for

4 to 6 inches tonight and another 1 inch tomorrow. Earlier they were talking 7 to 10 inches, so we've been downgraded.

I was expecting the heavy snow we were getting when I left to continue thru the afternoon and tonight. About an hour after I left, it stopped snowing. Wasn't bad driving at all, there or back. Guess I fired up the old truck for nothing. Oh well, better safe than sorry. :hi:

[RawMaterials]

68. 1:30 EST Market Update

Market Update

1:00PM: Profit taking amid choppy market conditions pushes equities to new session lows but the indices remain mixed... Bucking the negative tone within the semiconductor space has been LSI Logic (LSI 5.48 +0.46)... Last night, the chipmaker raised Q4 (Dec) earnings forecasts to $0.01-0.03 per share (from a loss of $0.02-0.05) and revenues to $415-420 mln (from $360-390 mln) to better reflect a near end to inventory correction in its Storage and Consumer businesses...

But since LSI is not a component of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, strong buying interest has had little impact on the SOX (-1.4%)... Advanced Micro Devices AMD 19.89 -0.32), which was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wells Fargo, had surged nearly 2.0% in early trading but has since fallen in sympathy with the rest of the chipmakers... NYSE Adv/Dec 860/2335, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 830/2193

12:30PM: Market continues to trade with a tinge of caution, as blue chips try to offset broad-based weakness... On the Dow, American International Group (AIG 67.22 +0.97) has surged after the insurance giant said it would reward shareholders with a 67% increase in its quarterly dividend while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.10 +0.19) has climbed after it announced a set of products and partnerships for its digital entertainment strategy...

[UpInArms]

69. 1:37 EST numbers (everything's suddenly rosy!)

Dow 10,679.18 +48.40 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,112.50 +4.64 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,192.44 +4.39 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263 -0.20 (-0.47%)

NYSE Volume 1,072,204,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,562,161,000

[UpInArms]

70. Cooking the Books

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2281&e=19&u=/thenation/132099

George W. Bush has a plan to cut the deficit. It's called cooking the books.

By now it's well known how Bush turned the $127 billion surplus he inherited in 2001 into a historic $413 billion deficit by 2004. It's less known that Bush's economic advisors incorrectly predicted a considerably larger $521 billion shortfall last February. Amazingly, the White House is sticking with that imaginary number--instead of the actual $413 billion--so Bush can claim he's already cut the deficit by $100 billion. If the fictional $521 billion somehow falls to $260 billion, Bush can falsely claim he's cut the deficit by half, thus fulfilling his campaign pledge.

"I've been watching this more than 30 years, and I have never seen anything quite this egregious," Stanley Collender, senior vice president for the large international consulting firm Financial Dynamics, told The New York Times. "They are cutting the deficit from a number they never believed in the beginning."

Far from shrinking the deficit, Bush's second term priorities will likely cause it to balloon. The cost of extending the tax cuts ($1 trillion), repealing the alternative minimum tax ($500 billion), paying for Medicare "reform" ($500 billion), and funding the war in Iraq (news - web sites) ($100 billion) totals $2.1 trillion. And that figure doesn't include the massive costs of privatizing Social Security (news - web sites), which if passed by the Republican Congress could add $2 trillion more over the next decade.

...more...

[54anickel]

82. Oh good grief!!! I rated the story up. The ending of the article is a

real kick in the teeth - hope some folks will start to wake up.

Bush claims he can compensate for the reckless spending by increasing tax revenue. But, because of the huge tax cuts and corporate giveaways, federal tax revenues comprise only 16.2 percent of US GDP (news - web sites), the lowest level since the early 1950s.

In Bush's faith-based fantasy world, things can't get better until he lies about making them worse.

[UpInArms]

72. Halliburton unit gets U.S. OK for estimating system (WHEE!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38357.6071924653-830666321&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Halliburton Co. (HAL) said Wednesday that on Dec. 27 its subsidiary, KBR, was granted continued approval of its estimating system by the U.S. Defense Contract Management Agency.

I "estimate" that this will cost the taxpayer a bundle!

[RawMaterials]

73. 2:55 EST Market Update

2:30PM: Modest selling interest returns to halt the market's recent revival as gains remain moderate at best... Meanwhile, gold ($427.30/oz) has fallen to its lowest levels since early November while the dollar has also held near its lowest levels against the euro (1.3264)... The market has been bearish on gold since the start of 2005 while the dollar, which surged yesterday to its strongest level in about two weeks, has succumbed to some selling pressure heading into the close... NYSE Adv/Dec 1175/2106, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1111/1954

2:00PM: A renewed wave of buying interest lifts the market toward their best levels of the session... Turning slightly positive for the first time today, despite recently pulling back into the red, has been the Amex Pharmaceutical Index (-0.1%)... Merck (MRK 31.51 +0.38) has accounted for the biggest move while Eli Lilly (LLY 55.92 +0.42) has also seen gains in excess of 1.0%... Contributing modestly to the resurgence has been Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 24.95 +0.08) after reports suggested the drug maker may sell off its consumer medicines unit for as much as $1 bln...

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK 46.74 +0.14), rumored as a potential buyer, has also traded higher...NYSE Adv/Dec 1234/2004, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1196/1868

1:30PM: The broader averages continue to

[RawMaterials]

74. 3:00 EST Market Update

3:00PM: Little changed in the last half hour as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Still languishing near their lows of the session have been the airlines (-5.2%) following Delta Air Lines' (DAL 6.73 -0.58) plan to slash fares by as much as 50% nationwide and lift certain restrictions...

Concerns that industry-wide adoption of DAL's new fare structure could result in annual revenue dilution of roughly $2-3 bln has prompted Merrill Lynch to downgrade DAL to Sell from Neutral and cut its ratings on American Airlines (AMR 9.19 -0.82) and Northwest Airlines (NWAC 8.71 -0.93) to Neutral from Buy... Shares of AMR, despite posting a 6.1% increase in Dec traffic, have plunged more than 8.5% while DAL, which reported a 5.4% rise in Dec traffic, has lost roughly 8% of its value...NYSE Adv/Dec 1188/2104, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1130/1960

[RawMaterials]

75. 3:30 EST Market update

3:30PM: Stocks show little vigor as the major averages continue to drift sideways heading into the close of trading... With the last quarter of the calendar year generating as much as one third of annual revenues and profits for many retailers, December same store sales will be a focal point tomorrow morning...

At 8:30 ET, Initial claims for unemployment (consensus 330K), versus last week's jobless figure of 326K, will be the only piece of economic data out while no notable earnings will be released until after the close, when Accenture (ACN 25.55 -0.20) and Constellation Brands (STZ 45.18 -0.82) post quarterly results... NYSE Adv/Dec 1108/2207, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1159/1939




http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[UpInArms]

76. Investing's "Next Big Thing"

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2005/nf2005015_5578_db006.htm

The best investment opportunities these days are outside the U.S., suggests Peter S. Cohan, author, investment strategist, and president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. While the U.S. stock market was up 9% in 2004, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, that of Austria was up 68%, notes Cohan. And South Africa's was up 50%, Mexico's up 46%, and Norway's up 46%.

"When we have a weak currency, like we do now, looking outside the U.S. makes a lot of sense," concludes Cohan, who recommends putting money into a diversified international mutual fund. He also notes that some of the most successful initial public offerings of 2004 were of Chinese e-commerce and e-content stocks.

Cohan says he's looking for the "next big thing" to fuel investing. He notes that in the '80s it was the PC and in the '90s the Internet -- but that so far in this decade nothing analogous has yet appeared. On one leading-edge niche, satellite radio, he notes wryly that the contract Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI ) signed with Howard Stern "vastly exceeds their yearly income." Despite the popularity of Sirius' stock, he's skeptical of the outfit's ability to attract enough paying customers to generate profits.

<snip>

Q: Peter, you had a lot of pre-election thoughts about the market impact of the results. We're not into Bush's second term quite yet, but what's your thinking now on this topic?

A: Well, at the risk of tooting my own horn, right before the election I talked about this W industrial complex index, which I put together earlier this year. I said the stocks in that group would do well if Bush were elected. The last chat I did was a few days before the election, with my WIC up 53% since his inauguration. Since the election, the index has gone up an additional 19%. So it's up quite a bit since his first election.

...more...

[54anickel]

83. Hey, I've invented a left nostril inhaler - think I can get any investors,

it's the "Next big thing" - honest. :evilgrin:

[RawMaterials]

77. Oil Off as U.S. Heating Fuel Supplies Rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed a surprise increase in heating oil stockpiles in the dead of winter, thanks to strong refining activity and mild weather.
U.S. crude futures (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) settled down 52 cents at $43.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange while London's Brent crude (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped 53 cents to $40.51 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that distillate stocks, which include heating oil, rose by 2 million barrels last week.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wants to avoid a big build-up in global stocks ahead of the second quarter of the year, when oil demand drops at the end of winter.

Oil prices have fallen nearly $12 a barrel from record highs above $55 in late October.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=5ZQZ0FC2JJJE2CRBAE0CFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=7247494

[UpInArms]

78. Dollar Ends Three-Day Rally Versus Euro, Falls Against the Yen

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=afAGE4BqYCzM&refer=japan

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar ended a three-day rally versus the euro and fell against the yen as investors resumed bets the U.S. currency will decline in coming months.

The dollar's advance against the European currency stalled even after the Federal Reserve said yesterday its target interest rate is less than needed to slow inflation after five increases last year. An industry report showed U.S. services industries expanded in December at the fastest pace in five months.

``The overall view remains that the dollar has to weaken, and the cyclical arguments such as economic growth and interest rates probably are not yet enough to turn the tide,'' said Michael Klawitter, a currency strategist at WestLB AG in Dusseldorf, Germany. ``I would rather buy euro-dollar at these levels, and I'd be very cautious to continue selling now.''

<snip>

The U.S. currency last year dropped 7.1 percent against the euro and 4.3 percent versus the yen. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar fell 7 percent in 2004, hurt by concern record U.S. current-account and budget deficits will undermine demand for the currency.

``The dollar will weaken further against the euro and the yen before it gets stronger,'' said Paul Chertkow, head of currency strategy at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in London, Japan's second-largest lender. ``The key point at the moment is still on structural factors, especially the U.S. current-account deficit.''

...more...

[RawMaterials]

79. Final numbers

Index %Change Change Level
Dow -0.29% -30.74 10,600.04
NASDAQ -0.78% -16.53 2,091.33
S&P -0.35% -4.19 1,183.86


One more down day only 2 more to go.

[DoBotherMe]

80. Here's the blather

Dow 10,597.83 -32.95(-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,091.24 -16.62(-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,183.74 -4.31 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277% -0.006
NYSE Volume 1,738,948,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,374,334,000


Close: Early momentum stalled for the third day in a row as the indices traded in mixed fashion most of the session with few upside catalysts to convincingly keep sellers on the sidelines... The Dow was positive until a renewed wave of selling in the last half hour of trading pushed it lower, alongside the S&P, Nasdaq and every other market average... Continued consolidation also pushed virtually every sector into negative territory as well...

Investors tried to establish a foothold upon digesting this morning's weekly oil report from the Dept of Energy, but mixed results only created more uncertainty... Distillates, which were expected to come in unchanged, rose by 2.0 mln barrels while crude supplies fell 3.3 mln barrels (consensus -1.5 mln barrels), promptly sending crude oil futures lower... The commodity ($43.39/bbl -$0.52), which bounced around on the supply data early on, showed little follow through and closed 1.0% lower on warmer than expected weather reports in the Northeast through Jan 12...

Even though the December ISM Services survey came in with a stronger than expected read of 63.1 (consensus 61.0), up from 61.3 in November, the market basically shrugged of the data as the more significant employment component came in at 54.9 versus 55.0 in November... Potential price wars stemming from Delta Air Lines' (DAL 6.80 -0.51) efforts to slash airfares sent airline stocks (-5.8%) into a tailspin while a Q3 (Dec) revenue warning from chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX 27.60 -0.84) added pressure to an already weak semiconductor group... Materials (-0.6%) extended Tuesday's 2.3% decline, as the dollar showed strength in the early going, while homebuilding, utility, financial, health care, retail, transportation and energy all lost ground as well...

[54anickel]

84. What happened to the rosy outlook at 1:30? They are now 3 days

outta 3 down. Not looking good if that old saying of Julie's holds true. Got 2 more days to kick it in the pants. Any good reports expected tomorrow or Friday?

[UpInArms]

85. reports for the next 2 days

Jan 6	8:30 AM	Initial Claims	12/31	-	330K	330K	326K	-	
Jan 7	8:30 AM	Average Workweek	Dec	-	33.8	33.8	33.7	-	
Jan 7	8:30 AM	Hourly Earnings	Dec	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Jan 7	8:30 AM	Nonfarm Payrolls	Dec	-	160K	175K	112K	-	
Jan 7	8:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	Dec	-	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	-	
Jan 7	3:00 PM	Consumer Credit	Nov	-	$4.0B	$6.0B	$7.7B	-

me? I'm expecting a bunch of "surprised" economists.

[54anickel]

86. Thanks UIA. Quite a spread on those consumer credit numbers there.

That's always a fun one to watch for, along with those Initial claims and the UE rate, though the market seems to find the others more important.

[UpInArms]

87. tomorrow's UE numbers will be all screwy

(jmho) because of the xmas and new years holidays - have to look at the 4 week - but it really won't tell a tale either :shakeshead:

so actually, Friday's numbers are going to be where the goose gets cooked -

debka's got an article out about BoJ intervention (and I always look at debka as propaganda)

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=962

gonna get interestin'

:hi:

[54anickel]

89. Heh-heh, I see my bluelight special coming just around the corner now

Gold tallies three-day loss of $11
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Metals+Stocks&siteid=mktw&dist=

snip>

James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said, "The prospect of further short-term gains by the dollar and Friday's nonfarm payroll figures are likely to see gold test key support around ... $424.05." See Economic Preview.

Prices are having a "difficult time" attracting buyers and "traders seem to be selling into rallies," according to Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group in Chicago. Prices are seeing resistance at the $438 to $440 level, along with support at $425, he said.

But as the market heads towards Iraq's election at the end of the month, "traders are likely to become more cautious as the violence in the Middle East shows no sign of easing," Moore said.

Dollar focus

Overall, the "firm dollar will prove short-lived," UBS' Reade said...