STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 6 January

[54anickel]

Thursday January 6, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 14 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 26 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 80 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1141
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 5, 2005

Dow... 10,597.83 -32.95 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq... 2,091.24 -16.62 (-0.79%)
S&P 500... 1,183.74 -4.31 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.28% -0.01 (-0.14%)
Gold future... 427.30 -1.90 (-0.44%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[54anickel]

1. Today's WrapUp by Mike Hartman 01.05.2005

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm

Good news came today from the Institute for Supply Management when they announced their index of non-manufacturing companies rose to 63.1 from 61.3. The median forecast called for a drop to 61, so the report was clearly stronger than expected. New orders, the backlog of orders and new export orders all showed gains, but the warning flag pops up when we see that employment slipped fractionally and prices paid rose to 71.4 from what was considered a high level at 71.0. In a separate report Challenger, Gray & Christmas said announcements for job cuts were in excess of 109,000 in December. Announcements of job cuts are now 17% higher on a year over year basis and this is the fourth consecutive month of announcements in excess of 100,000. Many analysts and investors are looking for strength in the employment numbers to confirm the signs of economic improvement. The softness in the ISM employment numbers and the Challenger report could be sending a clue as to what we will see on Friday when the job creation number for December is released.

It seems to me the jobs number on Friday will have a direct impact on the strength of U.S. dollar and interest rates as reflected by bond prices. It was interesting to see the bond market react to yesterday’s release of the minutes of the December 14th FOMC meeting. The minutes revealed that the Fed believes interest rates are still too low to keep inflation in check. More importantly, the Fed believes low rates are fostering an atmosphere of risk taking and rampant speculation. The bond market sold-off hard yesterday, but today is saying the sell-off may have been overdone. Weakness in the job report on Friday will help to keep a bid in Treasuries and the two reports above imply we could see a weak number Friday. In a nutshell, I believe the Fed will go ahead and raise the target Fed Funds Rate when they meet on February 2nd to 2.5%, but it won’t have much affect on the longer maturity ten and thirty-year bonds. The Fed needs to flatten the yield curve further to reduce the amount of financial speculation. We can afford higher rates on the short end, but if long-term interest rates take off to 7% or 8% the economy, and especially housing, will come to a screeching halt! The Fed needs to flatten the curve to reduce the amount of arbitrage and speculation by the big-boys, but must be delicate (call that a subsidy via monetization of the long end along with help from China and Japan) with the longer maturities to keep the housing and bond bubbles from going bust. The Fed is walking a very fine line!

snip>

Stocks and the Dollar

The economic picture as painted by the ISM report came in better than expected and energy prices moved lower, but the stock market still struggled for most of the day. We now have the first three trading days of 2005 off to a rough start, especially with the high-flyers in the NASDAQ. On Monday, the NASDAQ Composite had an intra-day high of 2,191 and closed today 2,091. That’s a 100 point haircut in three days when we are supposed to see new money moving into mutual funds on auto-pilot via monthly IRA contributions. For me this proves the great efforts at “window dressing” the final results for 2004 as stocks were kited in the two weeks leading up to the presidential elections, pumped them again with the Bush win, and continued pumping to the end of the year. As you can see from the last three days in the stock market, the action from November and December will be a tough act to follow. On October 25th the Dow Industrials closed at 9,749 and on December 28th, just two months later it closed at 10,854. The DJIA opened 2004 at 10,452, so without the 1,100 point run in the last two months the market would have closed the year with roughly a 700 point loss. Like I said, that’s a tough act to follow…stocks are showing it again today. By the end of the session the broad indexes went skidding out on the lows for the day. The DJIA lost 32 points to 10,597, the NASDAQ Composite fell 16 points to 2,091 and the S&P 500 dropped four points to 1,183.

For now the consensus view on the U.S. dollar is “rally time!” My head is telling me it’s not really rally time, just stop the bleeding time. The dollar has once again been saved from falling below the super-critical 80 level on the U.S. Dollar Index. The last time the dollar bottomed after a significant decline was back in mid-February last year when it closed at 86.25. Three months later it topped-out on 5/13 at 92.86, a total gain of 6.61 points or 7.7%. Five months later in late-October it broke down again to new lows and put in a low of 80.60 on December 30th. If we use 80.60 as the starting point and give it the same 7.7% increase, it would put the dollar index at 86.6. I believe we are going to see the dollar stay range-bound between 80 and somewhere around 86 if it can ever get there. In the meantime, gold and silver are still working through the current consolidation that I expect to be done in another week or two. This is where I believe gold and especially silver will be decoupled from their inverse relationship with the dollar and move into a bull market in all currencies. The dollar could crumble further, but in the short-term it will be range-bound in the low to mid-eighties. Once this consolidation is done and the commercials are done picking the speculators' pockets, we’ll be off to higher gold and silver prices even without a collapse of the dollar.

[54anickel]

2. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise; National Semiconductor Advances

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afXSEymF7Vq8&refer=us

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose. Computer-related companies including National Semiconductor Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. advanced in Germany.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in March added 3 to 1186.2 as of 11:30 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 24 to 10,611 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures increased 5 to 1570.5.

snip>

Jobless Claims

A government report that may say U.S. workers filed 331,000 initial applications for unemployment benefits last week, closing a year that had the fewest jobless claims since before the last recession. The Labor Department may say tomorrow that 2004 was the best year in five for U.S. job creation. :eyes:

``The jobless data will show the U.S. economy will not stop growing,'' said Jean Borjeix, a consultant at Oddo Securities' money-management unit in Paris, which oversees about $12 billion. ``Employment will continue to sustain growth and consumption in the U.S. Markets may react positively in the very short term to a good unemployment reading this week.''

snip>

Labor Department

Employers added 175,000 workers last month, according to median forecast in a Bloomberg survey before tomorrow's Labor Department report.

more...

[UpInArms]

6. National Semiconductor to cut 550 manufacturing jobs

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3417088194-830696708&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- National Semiconductor (NSM) said it would cut 550 jobs in an effort to streamline its manufacturing operations. The chipmaker expects to incur charges of about $22 million to $26 million, most in its fiscal third quarter, for severance and other expenses. The company also plans to cut 100 jobs from several product lines at various sites. The company is planning a total workforce reduction of 6 percent. The stock closed Wednesday down 3 cents at $16.88.

[54anickel]

14. Ha! They've now added that tidbit to the article. At first they stated

the rise was due to being upgraded from underperform to nuetral. They've also changed the reason they are positive on chip makers - now it's based on Dell. :eyes: They really do just make this shit up to draw in the sheep, don't they?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=amUF4pbVOp.E&refer=us

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose. National Semiconductor Corp. gained after saying it will trim its workforce and an analyst raised his opinion of the shares. Microsoft Corp. also advanced.

An index of semiconductor stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 13 percent last quarter, a rally some investors think may not be over.

``We're positive'' on chipmakers because computer makers including Dell Inc. may report ``higher sales growth,'' said Jacques Porta, a fund manager at Ofivalmo Patrimoine in Paris, which oversees the equivalent of $167.5 million in stocks. ``Semiconductors depend on sales of products like computers,''

spin, spin, spin

[UpInArms]

41. National Semiconductor downsizes (now 650 jobs)

(shifting the facts around some more?)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2E029E58%2DFFD5%2D427A%2D935B%2D1820F6A25E86%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares of National Semiconductor Corp. got a boost Thursday morning after the chip maker disclosed plans to cut 650 jobs and scored an upgrade from Credit Suisse First Boston.

Shares in the Santa Clara, Calif.-based firm (NSM: news, chart, profile) rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.23 in early trading Thursday.

In a statement before the bell, the company said it would streamline manufacturing operations through staff cuts, and would eliminate workers in various product support and administrative positions.

The layoffs will affect about 650 workers in the United States, Europe and Asia, as well as its headquarters in Silicon Valley.

The move is expected to result in a charge of between $22 million and $26 million in the fiscal third quarter, which ends Feb. 28.

In what turned out to be a prescient call, CSFB analyst Michael T. Masdea upgraded National Semiconductor's stock to a "neutral" rating late Wednesday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.99 Change +0.45 (+0.55%)

Dollar gains ahead of U.S. jobs
Expectations build for healthy December jobs growth

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAC352358%2DEE88%2D463E%2D948A%2D83C7E6D7782B%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (CBS.MW) - The dollar rallied against the major currencies Thursday, extending gains for the year as expectations build U.S. jobs growth could top 200,000 in December.

"It's not just a correction anymore. There are now fresh, speculative flows supporting the U.S. dollar," said Peter Stoneham, managing currency analyst at Thomson IFR in London.

U.S. job figures, due out Friday, are forecast to show that nonfarm payrolls grew by 186,000 in December, beating the prior month's 112,000-job gain. See Economic Preview.

<snip>

Masatoshi Nishi, chief manager of the treasury and securities division at Saitama Resona Bank in Tokyo, overnight said investors were buying of the dollar to pare their short positions, and the greenback could come under pressure as they take profits on these positions.

"That would pave the way for more dollar selling," he said.

...more...

The Fed's Muddled Minutes

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2005/nf2005016_4415_db042.htm

excerpt:

But drawing the correct conclusions from the minutes is tricky. It's a document unlike anything else Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his central bank colleagues put out. In the interests of helping investors get things right, here's BusinessWeek Online's humble attempt at a how-to guide for reading the Fed records.

A Missive Without a Message. Unlike the brief statement that the Fed issues after each of its monetary meetings, the minutes are not intended to deliver a single, clear message to the markets about central bank policy. In fact, just the opposite is the case. The minutes are meant to portray the nuanced discussions that led to the policymaking statement. In that sense, the minutes can be said to muddle the Fed's message, not make it clearer.

A (Mis)leading Indicator. Yes, the minutes can serve as a leading indicator of where interest rates are headed. If the meeting's talk is about faster inflation, then it's likely that interest rates are headed up. If the chatter is about slow economic growth, rates are probably headed down.

<snip>

Putting this all together, how should one read the Dec. 14 meeting minutes that the Fed made public on Jan. 4? In a word, carefully. The financial markets were spooked because the minutes revealed that a number of policymakers were worried about the risks of faster inflation. But, apropos of the minutes' ability to contain muddled messages, the record also showed other Fed officials weren't as concerned. In the end, everyone agreed to a statement saying inflation remains well contained.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[RawMaterials]

8. Dollar Jumps One Percent Against Yen

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar jumped one percent against the yen and hit a four-week high against euro on Thursday, extending its recent recovery on expectations for rising U.S. interest rates and better economic data.

The dollar's new year rally has been fueled by the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting on Tuesday that signaled the U.S. central bank could step up the pace of interest rate rises and ahead of the U.S. jobs report for December.

The dollar is expected to gain from rising rates as more international investors are lured by better returns on deposits but this view could be overshadowed by persistent worries about structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7253517

[belab13]

49. Hard to believe but...Greenspanuendo works its magic again.

Good morning Marketeers thanks to all for this fine thread each day.

[UpInArms]

53. verbal intervention at its finest

remember that talk is cheap and Bubbles will be happy never to pay up.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

74. Fed's Hoenig sees strong growth, low inflation in 2005 (counterspin?)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.5966523727-830710830&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. economy should continue on a solid growth path in 2005 with low inflation, said Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve. The economy should grow in a range of 3.0 percent to 4.5 percent this year, with "minimal inflationary pressures" and two million new jobs created. Monetary policy remains very accomodative despite the five rate hikes since June that have raised the Fed funds rate to 2.25 percent from 1.0 percent, he said.

2:11pm 01/06/05 HOENIG SEES MINIMAL INFLATION PRESSURES IN 2005

2:09pm 01/06/05 HOENIG SAYS FED POLICY STILL "VERY ACCOMMODATIVE"

2:08pm 01/06/05 HOENIG SEES 2005 GDP GROWTH IN 3.0-4.5% RANGE

2:08pm 01/06/05 HOENIG SEES 2 MLN NEW JOBS CREATED IN 2005

2:09pm 01/06/05 HOENIG SAYS JOBLESS RATE WON'T GO DOWN DRAMATICALLY

2:08pm 01/06/05 FED'S HOENIG: PRODUCTIVITY SHOULD KEEP INFLATION LOW

[54anickel]

78. Shooting for the Goldilocks story already, as the Fed turns from hawkish

to bantie hen. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

72. Atlanta Fed dollar index at 1997 low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.5826904977-830710108&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Atlanta Federal Reserve's trade-weighted dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against 15 major currencies, declined 0.9 percent in December, to its lowest level since January 1997. The dollar was down on all subindexes except for the Americas, which rose 0.6 percent. The European subindex registered a 3.1 percent decline, while the Pacific and Pacific-excluding-Japan subindexes both declined 1 percent. The overall index in December was 5.4 percent below its year-ago level.

[UpInArms]

4. Dec. Retail Sales Losers

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.2798021065-830693159&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Gottschalks Dec. same-store sales flat, miss forecasts (GOT) By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gottschalks (GOT) said December same-store sales were flat with year-earlier levels, and fell short of expectations as storms in California and Nevada during the final week of the month negatively impacted store traffic. Total sales declined 0.5 percent to $125.2 million from last year's $125.8 million. The department store chain's stock closed Wednesday down 4 cents at $8.39.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE57EC76A-6349-4EDA-A6A7-297019C8A291%7D&

Mothers Work Dec same-store sales down, ups Q1 EPS view (MWRK) By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Mothers Work (MWRK) said December same-store sales fell 1.9 percent from year-earlier levels. Total sales for the month were $49.8 million, up 3.5 percent from last year's $48.2 million. For the fiscal first-quarter, the maternity apparel retailer now expects a loss of 2 cents a share to earnings of 3 cents a share, up from its prior forecast of a loss of 10 cents a share to breakeven. The stock closed Wednesday down 11 cents at $12.95.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BEE96F2F7-0E2C-4742-A840-8D5F9F9BAABE%7D&

Claire's Stores revises down Q4 revenue guidance (CLE) By Sarah Turner
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Jewelery and accessory retailer Claire's Stores (CLE) said it now expects fiscal 2005 fourth quarter revenues in a range of $390 million to $369 million, down from a previous range of $396 million to $405 million. Comparable sales are expected to rise by 4 percent to 6 percent in the quarter, down from a previous estimate of a 6 to 8 percent rise. The company now expects to report fourth quarter net income of $57 million, or 61 cents a share, down from the $61 million, or 66 cents a share, previous estimate. For the five weeks to Jan. 1, 2005 comparable sales rose 5 percent, compared to a rise of 6 percent last year, while total sales rose 9 percent to $224,024,000, up from $205,635,000 last year.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B71A85B34-31FE-4ED2-AFA1-B548B3744D56%7D&

Cost Plus warns of Q1 earns, sales shortfall (CPWM) By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Cost Plus (CPWM) warned that fiscal fourth-quarter earnings would be $1.06 a share, below prior projections of $1.32 a share, due to weak sales results, a shift in sales to lower margin consumables and additional markdowns. The discount retailer said same-store sales for the quarter ending January are expected to decline 1.5 percent from year-earlier levels, vs. prior forecasts of a 2.5 percent increase. The company now expects total sales to rise 10 percent to $342 million vs. previous estimates of $356 million. The stock closed Wednesday down 25 cents at $29.70.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.2973025-830694015&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Zale Corp. Q2 earns to miss expectations (ZLC) By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Zale Corp. (ZLC) indicated that fiscal second-quarter earnings would miss expectations amid disappointing overall holiday sales results. The jewelry retailer expects to earn $1.88 to $1.91 a share for the quarter ending January, vs. the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of $2.01. Same-store sales for the month decline 0.7 percent from year-earlier levels while total sales rose 2.1 percent to $861 million. The stock closed Wednesday up 16 cents at $28.84.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3167244444-830695057&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

The Wet Seal Dec. same-store sales down 11.8% (WTSLA) By Michael Baron
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA) said same-store sales fell 11.8 percent in December. Total sales for the five weeks ended Jan. 1 declined to $63.2 million from $76 million in the same period a year earlier. Shares of the Foothill Ranch, Calif., retailer of fashionable and contemporary apparel closed Wednesday at $2.01, down 4.3 percent.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BFC54593F-0EED-49D1-8C6D-4159521616E6%7D&

Rex Stores Dec same-store sales down 2.7% (RSC) By Ciara Linnane
NEW YORK (CBS-MW) -- Rex Stores Corp. (RSC) said December same-store sales fell 2.7 percent compared to the year earlier period. Merchandise sales were $95.9 million, down 5.5 percent from $101.4 million last year. The consumer electronics retailer's stock closed Wednesday down 31 cents at $15.18.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BFBEE2CC4-3AD4-4AFD-AE26-DA69885A6D85%7D&

Charming Shoppes cuts Q4 outlook after Dec. sales dip (CHRS) By Mark Cotton
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Charming Shoppes, Inc (CHRS) said Thursday it was cutting its fourth quarter earnings outlook after disappointing sales in December. The women's apparel chain reported a 3 percent drop in same-store sales for the month compared with year-ago levels. As a result, the Bensalem, Pa. company said it now expects fourth quarter earnings in the range of 5 cents to 7 cents a share versus a prior estimate of 8 cents to 10 cents a share. The current First Call average estimate is for earnings of 10 cents a share. The company said it expects flat to low single digit percentage growth in same-store sales for January. Shares of Charming Shoppes were down 0.1 percent, at $9.24 at the close of trading Wednesday.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD8D97DDF-1397-42FE-ABA7-CDAD035F5B41%7D&

Finlay trims 2004 profit outlook on soft sales (FNLY) By Steve Gelsi
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Finlay Enterprises Inc. (FNLY) lowered its 2004 earnings per share target to $2.25-$2.35, down from $2.40-$2.50, amid lower-than-expected November and December sales. The New York-based jewelry retailer was expected to earn $2.50 per share, according to an analyst survey by Thomson First Call. November-December comparable department store sales increased 0.6 percent. Total sales for the two-month period were $350.6 million, up from $350.3 million. Shares of Finlay Enterprises fell 11 cents to $19.90 on Wednesday.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3360603125-830696338&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Fred's cuts 2004 view on drop in Dec. same-store sales (FRED) By Mark Cotton
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Fred's Inc. (FRED) said Thursday it was cutting its 2004 earnings outlook after December same-store sales came in weaker than expected. The drug store and discount retailer reported a 1.3 percent drop in same-store sales for the month, which it attributed to bad weather across a number of regions where it operates. It also added that pharmacy sales did not meet expectations due to the late arrival of the flu season. As a result, the Memphis, Tenn. company said its weak December sales performance will lower 2004 earnings by between two to four cents a share. The current First Call average estimate is for full-year earnings of 76 cents a share. The company is forecasting same-store sales in January to grow between three to five percent. Fred's shares were down 2.9 percent, at $15.56 at the close of trading Wednesday.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.336448206-830696376&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Ann Taylor reiterates Q4 after Dec. comp. sales fall (ANN) By Steve Goldstein
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) said it remains comfortable with fourth quarter EPS guidance of flat to 4 cents per share after posting a 1.5 percent decline in comparable sales during December. The company said sales sales at its Ann Taylor division were better than expected given November's weak performance, with most of the improvement coming in week five, while Ann Taylor Loft's performance met expectations. It sees January comparable store sales to rise by a low single-digit for both divisions.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3398763773-830696619&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Retail Ventures Dec. same-store sales slip 0.7% (RVI) By Michael Baron
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Retail Ventures Inc. (RVI) said December same-store sales slipped 0.7 percent. Total sales for the five weeks ended Jan. 1 increased 6.1 percent to $364.4 million from $343.6 million in the same period a year earlier. Shares of the Columbus, Ohio off-price retailer closed Wednesday at $7.06, down 11 cents.



(gotta love the spin on these)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3250115857-830695608&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Big Lots: Nov, Dec comparable sales were below plan (BLI) By Sarah Turner
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Retailer Big Lots (BLI) reported five-week to Jan. 1, 2005 sales of $667.5 million, up 5.3 percent from $633.7 million last year. Comparable sales rose 0.1 percent. November and December comparable sales were below plan and have resulted in higher-than-expected current inventory levels, the company said. "Accordingly, we have developed and are executing a more aggressive markdown strategy than originally planned in seasonal trim-a-tree, toys, and other gift giving categories." Fourth-quarter comparable sales are now estimated to decline in the low single digits. This guidance assumes a flat to slightly positive January comparable store sales increase. Michael Potter will be transitioning from his role as CEO and will assume a newly created position of Chief Strategy Officer, the company added.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3245174306-830695570&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Sharper Image total company sales rise 6% in Dec. (SHRP) By Abby Deveney
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Sharper Image Corp. (SHRP) said total company sales rose 6 percent in December to $164.3 million vs. $155.6 million a year earlier. Same-store sales fell 7 percent in December vs. an increase a year earlier of 21 percent. Sharper Image confirmed a fourth-quarter earnings outlook of 94 cents to 99 cents per diluted share, compared with earnings of $1.40 a year earlier. It expects full-year earnings of 90 cents to 95 cents per diluted share, compared with last year's $1.65.

[UpInArms]

7. here's another "loser"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3454136111-830696988&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Whitehall Jewellers Nov-Dec same-store sales down 9% (JWL) By Ciara Linnane
NEW YORK (CBS-MW) -- Whitehall Jewellers Inc. (JWL) said same-store sales fell 9.0 percent for the November and December period, compared with a 6.4 percent increase in the year-earlier period. Total sales for the two-month period were $110.8 million compared with $120.9 million last year. The jewelry retailer's stock on Wednesday fell 6 cents to $7.95.

[JNelson6563]

10. Interesting reports!

I suspect there will be a flurry of them in the near future. I donot foresee good numbers except maybe for Tiffany's, Nordstrom and the like.

Julie

[54anickel]

12. Aww, come on now. I'm sure they'll get a huge boost once those

gift certificates start rolling in for redemption...Bwahahahaha!

[54anickel]

5. Foreclosures grow as refinancing increases

You can borrow more than you can ever repay, but should you?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6791003/

snip>

Refinancing in America skyrocketed 35 percent from 1993 to 2001, but from 2000 to 2003, foreclosures also climbed 45 percent. Many economists suggest that with volatile real estate and money markets, pinning all of your financial future on your house isn't much different than taking a spin at the local casino.

"There are people in this world who want to take that kind of gamble, but that's not what most Americans want to do with the place they live," says Warren.

And the high stakes don't stop with loans. A recent study by October Research shows 55 percent of appraisers say they've felt 'uncomfortably pressured' to overstate property values, and 46 percent of those say they were asked to inflate the value by 11 to 30 percent.

So if you're planning to refinance, the advice is: Don't go overboard, or else your home could become a house of cards.

more...

[54anickel]

16. Call for Adjustable Mortgages Jumps

The percentage of home buyers choosing to forgo fixed-rate loans last year is the highest since 1994.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-arm6jan06,1,1917693.story?coll=la-headlines-business

The portion of U.S. home buyers opting for adjustable-rate mortgages almost doubled in 2004 as surging home prices spurred more people to borrow at lower interest rates with shorter fixed periods.

The market share of purchase loans with adjustable rates, or ARMs, increased to 34% from 19% in 2003, mortgage company Freddie Mac said. It was the highest annual percentage since 1994, when the rate was 39%.

Although the shift to ARMs has buoyed the U.S. housing market by enabling people to borrow at initially lower rates, it leaves consumers vulnerable to a rapid rise in rates once the introductory period is over, said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania.

"This is an early-warning sign of potential dangers to come," Wachter said. "The surge in ARMs opens a larger percentage of the population to vulnerability to short-term rate increases."

ARMs pose a higher risk of foreclosure, when lenders seize homes after owners fall behind in mortgage payments. The number of "prime" ARMs in foreclosure, lent to the most credit-worthy borrowers, was 0.57% in the third quarter, compared with a rate of 0.42% for prime fixed-rate loans, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. in Washington said.

more...

Thanks for the sound advice Greenspin. What's that old saying about a fool and his money again? :spank:

[UpInArms]

9. It's MaeveDay! Today's Report:

Jan 6 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 12/31
report -
briefing.com 330K
market 330K
last report 326K
revised -

[UpInArms]

13. HOLY COW! U.S. initial jobless claims surge by 43,000 to 364,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.3541971296-830697378&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped by 43,000 to 364,000 last week, the highest since September, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the biggest increase in nearly three years. However, a Labor Department official once again encouraged users of the data to look at the less-volatile and more-informative four-week moving average of new claims, which rose by 750 to 333,000. The number of ex-workers collecting unemployment checks rose by 61,000 to 2.84 million in the week ending Dec. 25, the highest since September. The four-week average of continuing claims increased by 13,500 to 2.77 million, a six-week high.

8:30am 01/06/05 U.S. INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY AT 2.2%

8:30am 01/06/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 61,000 TO 2.84 MLN

8:30am 01/06/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVERAGE NEW CLAIMS STEADY AT 333,000

8:30am 01/06/05 BIGGEST JUMP IN U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS SINCE MARCH 2002

[54anickel]

15. Uh-oh!!!...and in a shortened work week...n/t

[54anickel]

18. Heh, hasn't fazed the futures yet...n/t

[UpInArms]

20. the soon-to-be "surprised economists" are still

predicting record job growth in the reports tomorrow. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

68. Strategist Ned Riley sees 'soggy' jobs data on Friday

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.5394859259-830708092&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The increase in unemployment insurance claims Thursday morning was a surprise to the market and could be the "precursor" to trends ahead in the corporate community, said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. "I think we're going to have a soggy jobs report," Riley said, referring to the U.S. Labor Department's payrolls report due out Friday.

These guys really do live on a different planet. :eyes:

[54anickel]

27. Job cuts jumped at end of year, BUT...

But survey firm says year-end blip not an indication of a weak economy

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2979696

Job cut announcements by U.S. employers in December rose 17 percent from the same month a year earlier, as companies moved to reduce costs at the end of the year, according to a private survey.

The 109,045 announced job cuts last month, as measured by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, are 4.3 percent higher than November's total. Still, the 1.04 million total job cuts for last year is the lowest since 2000.

"The heavy year-end downsizing does not necessarily indicate a sudden weakening of the economy," said John Challenger, chief executive of the Chicago-based recruiting firm. "Job cuts are likely to continue to decline in 2005 with the economy showing signs of improvement."

U.S. employers added 112,000 workers in November, after adding 303,000 in October, government data show. Monthly job gains averaged 185,450 in the first 11 months of 2004, above the 150,000 the Federal Reserve says is needed to keep pace with labor-force expansion. Monthly job creation was a negative 5,084 in 2003.

Job cut plans aren't the same as layoffs because many of the reductions will be carried out through attrition or early retirement. Also, some employees whose jobs are cut find work elsewhere in their companies, and many announced staff reductions never take place because business improves.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Ports expect import surge

Free registration - bugmenot.com worked.

Hiring planned at L.A., Long Beach to deal with Asian goods.

http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/01/06/sections/business/business/article_367870.php

Southern California ports are projecting a 12 percent to 14 percent increase in cargo received from Asia, prompting waterfront employers to continue a hiring spree started in August, a maritime spokesman said Wednesday.

But officials hope to monitor labor needs more closely this year to avoid the huge shipping backlog that created a queue of up to 30 cargo ships off the Orange County coast in the latter half of 2004.

snip>

Even more cargo will arrive at our shores this year, fueled by increased consumer demand for goods ranging from autos and computers to shoes and T-shirts, Greenwald said.

"Everyone is gearing up to handle this increased volume," said association President Jim McKenna. "2005 is shaping up as an even bigger year than 2004."

I see the declining dollar plan is working - NOT

more regarding hiring plans...

[54anickel]

17. Newcomers to Energy Investments Could Make This Year's Price Swings Wild

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/06/business/06place.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1105019427-y2OYudFaL7GaSr3cCzA1UA

THE jarring swings in oil prices that gave investors and traders whiplash in 2004 are not preventing new investors from rushing into oil and other energy-related commodities this year.

These investors are attracted by the promise of better returns than those offered by bonds and equities, bankers and traders say. Ultimately, the rising number of speculators could lead to even more price volatility in 2005 as they push the highs higher and the lows lower.

Speculation on oil prices is not limited to hedge funds, which were popular scapegoats for high oil prices last year. Some of the largest pension funds, insurance companies and endowments are moving more and more money into commodity indexes, which are heavily weighted in oil and gas futures. Wealthy private investors are also snapping up new oil price-related products.

snip>

In the past, commodities like crude oil and metals were often shunned by general long-term investors because they can vacillate as much as 100 percent in a year as economies rise and plummet and the ratio of supply to demand shifts rapidly around the globe. For example, crude oil prices peaked at a closing price of $55.17 a barrel in New York in 2004, up about 70 percent from the low of $32.48 a barrel for the year....snip>

But there is a growing belief that economic expansion in countries like India and China and delivery bottlenecks caused by a lack of investment in tankers, pipelines and refineries will ensure that prices of oil and oil-related products will not plummet.

That belief, though, has a dangerous downside if it turns out to be wrong. "The real question is, 'Will incremental demand from China, India and other places cause sustained higher commodity prices or is this just a cyclical upswing?' " said Michael Parker, fund manager for Mirador Diversified Fund in New York.

If it is cyclical, then many commodities and the companies that make them are "massively overvalued" and will go into freefall as new and old investors pull out, Mr. Parker said.

more...

[54anickel]

19. 10 Ex-Directors From WorldCom to Pay Millions

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/06/business/06tele.html?oref=login

en former directors of WorldCom, the telecommunications company whose bankruptcy was the largest in history, have agreed to pay $18 million of their own money to settle a class-action lawsuit by investors who lost hundreds of millions of dollars when the company collapsed in July 2002.

The agreement by directors to dig into their own pockets, which is part of a $54 million settlement with plaintiffs led by the New York State Common Retirement Fund, is a remarkable concession. Directors have always relied on their company's insurance to cover costs associated with securities cases and settlements.

Yesterday's settlement is a disturbing precedent for directors, whose duties to look after shareholders' interests have come under harsh scrutiny in the three years since the failure of Enron.

Investors have become increasingly frustrated as company directors and officers escaped financial responsibility for losses incurred as a result of fraud.

Companies whose executives are accused of engaging in fraudulent practices typically pay those executives' legal bills and the fines that can result when regulatory proceedings against them are settled. And directors almost never pay in such settlements because they are covered by insurance.

more...

Their OWN money! Sheesh, yeah I suppose that ill-gotten booty could be considered their own now, possession IS 9/10 of the law or some such BS. :eyes: :grr:

[UpInArms]

21. Here's the Enron BoDs from 2000

http://www.enron.com/corp/investors/annuals/2000/board.html

ROBERT A. BELFER (1, 3)
NORMAN P. BLAKE, JR. (3, 4)
RONNIE C. CHAN (2, 3)
JOHN H. DUNCAN (1*, 4)
WENDY L. GRAMM (2, 5)
KEN L. HARRISON
ROBERT K. JAEDICKE (2*, 4)
KENNETH L. LAY (1)
CHARLES A. LEMAISTRE (1, 4*)
JOHN MENDELSOHN (2, 5)
JEROME J. MEYER (3, 5)
PAULO V. FERRAZ PEREIRA (2, 3)
FRANK SAVAGE (3, 4)
JEFFREY K. SKILLING (1)
JOHN A. URQUHART (3)
JOHN WAKEHAM (2, 5*)
HERBERT S. WINOKUR, JR. (1, 3*)

Wendy Gramm and Phil Gramm sure gained a bunch in their dealings.

If you want to find some pure evil, do some research on Herbert Winokur (Pug Winokur) - it's enough to stand your hairs on end.

[54anickel]

30. Well, Pug's not in this article, but the Gramms sure come up a lot

http://www.apfn.org/ENRON/Blind_Faith.pdf

[54anickel]

31. GACK!!! What a weasel!

http://www.apfn.org/enron/dynacorp.htm

[UpInArms]

33. here's one

http://www.apfn.org/enron/dynacorp.htm

WINOKUR AND DYNCORP

As Federal investigations swirl around Winokur and
other board members, doubt has been raised about
the viability of independent investigation, given
Enron's enormous political clout, Winokur's leading
role in the company that manages information systems
for many of the investigative agencies raises a
special set of concerns.

Winokur owes much of his wealth to his role in
reconstructing Dyncorp, one of the Federal government's
largest private contractors. He is a former Dyncorp
chairman and remains a director of the company. At
present, Dyncorp manages e-mail and information
systems for the Department of Justice, the Securities
and Exchange Commission and the Federal Bureau of
Investigations.

Investigators are reportedly concerned that Dyncorp's
control of agency information systems could compromise
their investigations of Winokur and Enron.

...more...

but your link was wonderful:

Dr. Wendy Gramm, in her capacity as chairwoman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), exempted Enron’s trading of futures contracts in response to a request for such an action by Enron in 1992. At the time, Enron was a significant source of campaign financing for Wendy Gramm’s husband, U.S. Senator Phil Gramm.

Six days after she provided Enron the exemption it wanted, Wendy Gramm resigned her position at the CFTC. Five weeks after her resignation, Enron appointed her to its Board of Directors, where she served on the Board’s Audit Committee. Her service on the Audit Committee made her responsible for verifying Enron’s accounting procedures and other detailed financial information not available to outside analysts or shareholders.

Following Wendy Gramm’s appointment to Enron’s board, the company became a significant source of personal income for the Gramms. Enron paid her between $915,000 and $1.85 million in salary, attendance fees, stock option sales and dividends from 1993 to 2001. The value of Wendy Gramm’s Enron stock options swelled from no more than $15,000 in 1995 to as much as $500,000 by 2000.

Enron became the single largest corporate source of campaign financing for Phil Gramm, contributing nearly $260,000 from 1993 to 2001.

Days before her attorneys informed Enron in December 1998 that Wendy Gramm’s control of Enron stock might pose a conflict of interest with her husband’s work, she sold $276,912 worth of Enron stock.

[54anickel]

40. Heh-heh, there's that great minds thing goin' again...

Referenced the same article, but didn't put in any snippets :spank:(it's all a great read)...Thanks!

[54anickel]

22. Japanese sell 30% of US cars

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1645c9c4-5eff-11d9-8cca-00000e2511c8.html

Japan's biggest carmakers took more than 30 per cent of the new car market in the US for the first time last year.


Toyota, which passed Detroit's Ford Motor in 2003 to become the world's second-largest carmaker, last year became the first non-American manufacturer to sell more than 2m cars in the US.

The rise in US sales of Japanese cars and light trucks came in spite of high-profile efforts by the domestic "big three" - General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, the US arm of DaimlerChrysler - to recapture lost market share.

Tatsuo Yoshida, analyst at Deutsche Securities in Tokyo, said: "Japanese carmakers are offering highly competitive products at reasonable prices." He said the Japanese were still ahead of the largest US carmakers in terms of durability, quality and reliability.

Japan's leading carmakers are expected to continue expanding their share of the US market, particularly with competitive new pick-up trucks, where the big three currently dominate sales.

more...

Anyone remember when Lee Iacocca made the statement that went something like "give me a (some value?) Yen and I'll turn this company and economy around"

[54anickel]

24. Here's a reference to Lee's statement...

Next at bat, Lee Iacocca’s claim in the mid-eighties that, if the Japanese yen (then sitting at 240 to the dollar) could just be lowered to 180 to the dollar, then Detroit would push Japan’s unsold cars back across the Pacific. In 1985 the world’s finance ministers did just that, during a meeting in Paris; only they didn’t stop at 180 yen to the dollar, they managed to drive it all the way down to 124. Four years and a long dry spell later, Iacocca was trying to get Fiat to buy out his troubled firm. General Motors was incorrectly accounting for real costs involved in pension and retirement programs, which would lead to a $20 billion-plus write-off in the early nineties. And, at the same time, Lexus and Infiniti were poised to make their successful American debuts.

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/columnists/ed_wallace/10379081.htm

[54anickel]

25. Asia posing major challenge to American competitiveness: US chamber

Ohhh boy, here we go...:eyes:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=1&u=/afp/20050106/bs_afp/usasiacommerce_050106073854

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Asian economies are posing an unprecendented challenge to US competitiveness, a top American business lobby warned Wednesday, seeking firm government steps to secure the nation's leadership.


The US Chamber of Commerce (news - web sites), representing three million firms, said although the United States was strong and outperforming virtually all of the major economies in the world, it has failed to address this challenge.


"We have a good economy today -- the kind of economy that much of the rest of the world only dream about," the chamber's president, Thomas Donohue, said at a news conference outlining the group's priority issues for 2005.


"Yet, we must also recognize that our competitive position is being challenged as never before," he said. "The rapidly developing economies of China, India and East Asia are becoming major players in cutting edge industries."

snip>

Donohue warned that the United States was driving companies, capital, and jobs out of the country due to excessive legal, health, tax, and energy costs as well as with "abusive" corporate governance rules.


In addition, he said, the US society was aging, education system was falling short and faced serious shortages of workers due to immigration and visa problems.

more...

[UpInArms]

23. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Still shaping up to be a modestly higher open for the indices... Deutsche has downgraded AIG to Hold from Buy but raised its target to $74 from $69 while NSM has been upgraded to Neutral at CSFB and MDT has been upped at Bear Stearns to Outperform from Peer Perform... Other notable ratings changes include Merrill Lynch downgrades on a handful of oil services stocks and Merrill's downgrade on Computer Associates (CA)

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures market trading closer to fair value but still indicating a slightly higher open for the indices... Crude oil ($43.04/bbl -$0.35) has fallen in pre-market trading and the dollar has extended a four-day rally against major currencies while action overseas has been somewhat mixed, with Europe showing gains of 0.8%... Initial claims for unemployment during the holiday period last week just came in at 364K versus expectations of 330K and last week's figure of 321K

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures market suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market... Better than expected Dec same store sales and Jan comps guidance of 2-4% from Wal-Mart (WMT) have contributed to the positive bias... It is being reported that Microsoft (MSFT) may pursue an alliance with Sony (SNE) to counter the success of Apple's (AAPL) iPod while reports also suggest Alltel (AYZ) may acquire Western Wireless (WWCA) for $4 bln... At 8:30 ET, the only piece of economic data out today will be weekly jobless claims (consensus 330K)

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's losses but remains below the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1581.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 1547.86 is the next likely downside target. I would not rule out a short covering bounce today as the index might try to consolidate some of this week's losses. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 6.50 pt. at 1572 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's huge decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1181.58 is the next downside target. The March S&P 500 Index was up 3.10 pts. at 1186.30 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

26. Korean Shipbuilders See China's Shadow

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/06/business/worldbusiness/06ships.html?pagewanted=1

snip>

Only in 2004, when South Korea exported ships with a value of $15.09 billion, did it definitively wrest from Japan the status of the world's leading shipbuilding nation.

But the South Koreans are already looking over their shoulder at China, which has embarked on a path toward becoming the largest shipbuilder by 2015. Chinese competition, which has unnerved American manufacturers, is also putting much of Asia on edge as China rapidly narrows the technological gap with higher-wage Asian neighbors.

snip>

From a marginal competitor in the 1990's, China has become the world's third-largest shipbuilding nation, winning 14 percent of orders in 2004, as measured by tonnage. Japan was second, with 24 percent, and South Korea led, with 40 percent, according to the Shipping Intelligence Network of London. The United States, whose share of the world's commercial shipbuilding market has steadily declined over the last two decades, now has less than 1 percent of orders.

China, like Japan, is taking steps to channel much of its trade into Chinese-made ships. Most of Japan's vessels are built for Japanese exporters. The Chinese are seeking, as well, to improve their shipbuilding skills as a step toward creating the kind of navy that will allow them to patrol commercial sea lanes. By contrast, South Korea largely produces for the world market.

In the Chinese shipyards, labor productivity lags far behind that in South Korean and Japanese yards, which are about even.

But this winter, workers outside Shanghai are dealing with something new: China's first domestically made liquefied natural gas tanker. In a contract signed in August, Hudong-Zhongua Shipbuilding is to build five L.N.G. tankers. The shipyard, which is state-owned, wants to become the main supplier of liquefied gas tankers to feed the nine L.N.G. terminals that China plans for 2010.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Retailers begin to pass along cost increases from wholesalers

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2979751

HARRISBURG, PA. - After a decade of relatively tame prices, consumers are starting to feel the "ouch" of inflation as the cost of everything from coffee, candy and home appliances is marching higher.

It's not a sharp pain yet, and some call it hardly noticeable. But with companies such as Procter & Gamble Co., Hershey Foods Corp. and Whirlpool Corp. passing along the higher prices they pay for raw materials to their customers, it's beginning to get attention from people who shop in grocery, appliance and department stores.

snip>

Inflation has lagged
For the most part, inflation as measured by the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index has lagged behind the rising cost of wholesale products like fuel, steel and plastics over the past year. In the 12 months ending in November, the CPI rose 3.5 percent, while the change in the price of finished goods at the wholesale level increased 5 percent.

But the supply chain, which seems to have absorbed most of the higher costs, may be reaching its tipping point. Analysts say a slowly improving economy is giving producers more confidence to pass on higher prices, especially as excess inventories dwindle and commodities, from green coffee to oil, stay at elevated prices.

"I think the faster rate of inflation is here to stay," said Nigel Gault, managing director of the U.S. economic service of Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. "The important thing is whether it is stabilized at the rate it is at, or whether it will accelerate even faster. That is the question."

more...

[RawMaterials]

29. Market Update 10:00 EST

yahoo.com

9:40AM: Market opens a positive note, in line with futures indications, as the indices try to close higher for the first time in 2005... While new jobless claims bounced up sharply to 364K, from a revised 321K figure a week earlier, the market has shrugged off the data as seasonal factors can be strong during holiday weeks and the 4-week average has actually reflected a stabilization in the 330-335K range...

Also, with the market more concerned about hiring activity than layoffs these days, this morning's data has provided little indication as to the gain many investors are expecting in nonfarm payrolls (consensus 175K) tomorrow...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Expectations remain set for a higher open for the cash market as investors digest relatively solid December same store sales figures and try to snap three straight days of losses for the major indices

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Still shaping up to be a modestly higher open for the indices... Deutsche has downgraded AIG to Hold from Buy but raised its target to $74 from $69 while NSM has been upgraded to Neutral at CSFB and MDT has been upped at Bear Stearns to Outperform from Peer Perform... Other notable ratings changes include Merrill Lynch downgrades on a handful of oil services stocks and Merrill's downgrade on Computer Associates (CA)

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures market trading closer to fair value but still indicating a slightly higher open for the indices...

[54anickel]

32. 10:07 numbers and yada - retreating again

Dow 10,607.06 +9.23 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,095.98 +4.74 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,185.03 +1.29 (+0.11%)
10-yr Bond 4.283% +0.006
30-yr Bond 4.862% +0.015
NYSE Volume 199,855,000
Nasdaq Volume 352,299,000

10:00AM : Equities continue to hold their own and sport modest gains in the early going... With no earnings reports of note today, December same store sales have been in focus all morning following a generally strong holiday season... Wal-Mart (WMT 53.66 +0.37), which pre-announced Dec comps of 3% on Monday, has guided Jan comps of 2-4% while strong chain store sales have also come from American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS 49.82 +1.90) and Costco (COST 48.43 +1.21)...
Retail (-0.4%) has been under pressure, however, after Target posted a 5.1% rise in comps but said Q4 (Jan) earnings will come in below analysts' forecasts and profit warnings have come in from retailers like Pier 1 (PIR 18.25 -0.50), Cost Plus (CPWM 27.60 -2.10) and Zale Corp (ZLC 28.20 -0.64)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1617/954, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1561/895

9:40AM : Market opens a positive note, in line with futures indications, as the indices try to close higher for the first time in 2005... While new jobless claims bounced up sharply to 364K, from a revised 321K figure a week earlier, the market has shrugged off the data as seasonal factors can be strong during holiday weeks and the 4-week average has actually reflected a stabilization in the 330-335K range...

Also, with the market more concerned about hiring activity than layoffs these days, this morning's data has provided little indication as to the gain many investors are expecting in nonfarm payrolls (consensus 175K) tomorrow...

[54anickel]

34. U.S. Stocks Rise, Ending 3-Day Slide; Western Wireless Surges

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=agZpld1vaNOo&refer=home

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose as some investors said the three-day slump in share prices to start the year isn't justified given the prospects for economic growth.

``There was some pent-up selling,'' said Nathaniel Paull, who helps manage more than $4 billion at New Amsterdam Partners in New York. ``Now people are going to be off to the races for 2005. We're looking for better-than-consensus economic growth.'' :eyes:

Western Wireless Corp. surged as much as 21 percent after the New York Times said the company is in talks to be sold to Alltel Corp. Shares of AnnTaylor Stores Inc. and Hot Topic Inc. climbed after their December sales fell less than expected.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 3.65, or 0.3 percent, to 1187.39 as of 9:38 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 27.55, or 0.3 percent, to 10,625.38 and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 11.18, or 0.5 percent, to 2102.42.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Costco December Same-Store Sales Rise (Hope it's at Wal-mart's

expense)

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/01/06/ap1742022.html

Costco Wholesale Corp., the nation's largest wholesale club operator, said Thursday that total sales at stores open at least one year, or same-store sales, were up 9 percent for the month of December.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were looking for the company to post a 6.3 percent same-store sales increase for the month.

Total sales for the five weeks ended Jan. 2 were up 11 percent at $5.77 billion from $5.20 billion in the year-ago period. Domestic same-store sales were up 8 percent, and international same-store sales rose 12 percent during the month.

For the first 18 weeks of its 2005 fiscal year ended Jan. 2, Costco reported total sales of $18.17 billion, an increase of 10 percent from $16.49 billion last year. Same-store sales rose 7 percent, with domestic same-store sales rising 7 percent and international sales up 9 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Wal-Mart's December Sales Rise 3%, Within Forecast

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a6zFVzSpX8EQ&refer=news_index

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 3 percent, buoyed by purchases of last-minute holiday gifts and groceries.

January sales will rise 2 percent to 4 percent from a year earlier, Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart said today in a statement. Same-store sales in the first 11 months of the company's fiscal year have risen 3.4 percent, the smallest gain in more than a decade.

Wal-Mart began running full-page newspaper ads highlighting low-price toys and electronics after initial efforts to curb discounts discouraged shoppers from visiting the stores. While the advertising helped attract more shoppers, sales of groceries were stronger than those of general merchandise, Wal-Mart said.

``They recognized what they did wrong, but it took them several weeks to get the traction they needed,'' said Patricia Edwards, who helps manage about $5.3 billion at Wentworth, Hauser & Violich in Seattle, including Wal-Mart shares. ``It looked a little bit iffy for a while.''

more...

[54anickel]

36. Boeing Wins $655 Million Plane Order

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7253731

LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - U.S. plane maker Boeing Co finalized an order for 10 737-800 airliners worth $655 million with German tourism firm TUI's Hapag-Lloyd Flug holiday airline, it said on Thursday.
Hapag-Lloyd Flug will take delivery of the planes between the first quarter of 2006 and the middle of 2007 and plans to replace aging Airbus A310s, which will be sold, TUI said.

"We are making use of the current opportunity of buying cost-efficient aircraft at attractive prices to renew our fleet and retain the flexibility of our capacity planning," said Sebastian Ebel, TUI board member responsible for airlines.

Ebel added that TUI had benefited from the weakness of the dollar compared to the euro in placing the order.

TUI said the switch to an all-Boeing fleet at Hapag-Lloyd Flug from a mixed fleet currently would enable it to achieve cost savings in operations, servicing and maintenance.

more...

[RawMaterials]

38. Bond bubble, American-style

http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=1/6/2005§ion_id=4&newsid=9110&spcl=no

We believe a nasty popping of the bond-market bubble lies in wait for investors. Why? In short, yields are too low, bond prices too high, and quality spreads too tight. The gargantuan rally, which actually peaked in June 2003, as evidenced in the monthly chart of 30-year bond futures below, should soon be history.

Here are a few tidbits of anecdotal evidence for your perusal:
· Net purchases of all US fixed-income securities rose to a record high in October on a rolling 12-month basis.
· Custody holdings of US debt hit a new high of US$1.329 trillion.
· Foreign purchases of US corporate bonds hit a record high on a rolling 12-month basis.
· Foreign purchases of US Agency paper hit a record high on a rolling 12-month basis.
· US high-yield, or junk, bond issuance has reached record levels; issuance to date totalled $139.8 billion, beating $136 billion in the previous year and just edging ahead of 1998's $137.8 billion.
· Interest-rate derivatives held by US commercial banks increased to a record $73 trillion (notional value) in the third quarter of 2004.
· The credit spreads on double- B-rated securities are tighter than they were on the eve of the Long Term Capital Management debacle.
· Strong investor demand for the debt has pushed the premium over Treasuries to historically low levels.

Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, the rush out of bonds may morph to a stampede. "In an economy growing at a sustained 4%+ real rate, experiencing near-record low national savings, a corresponding record high current account gap and rising inflation, bubble seems the only reasonable way to describe real short rates of barely over 0%, real five-year rates of less than 1%, real 10-year rates of 1.6%, and real 20-year rates of less than 2%, probably 200 to 300 bp below sustainable fair-value levels depending on maturity," writes Wieseman.

..more..

this should be good news to all the ARM's out there - not

[54anickel]

39. I am starting to LOVE this Casey guy! (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty010605.html

snip>

The big news this morning (Tuesday the 4th), as I was explaining to the paramedics who were trying to get my heart started, is that the official national debt jumped to $7.596 trillion, which is a jump of over $40 billion in one freaking week! The entire year-long budget deficit is supposed to be some horrific $600 billion or so, and here they are spending one-fifteenth of that in ONE FREAKING WEEK! The trade deficit is likewise about $600 billion, and here the damned government is spending that much every fifteen weeks at this rate!

- Richard Benson of Specialty Finance Group has added back the hedonic deflators into the "official" Consumer Price Index, and figures that the actual rate of inflation is 6%, not the 3.5% that is advertised. I figure it is at LEAST that, but then I habitually take the alarmist perspective about everything. To show you that The Mogambo has a civilized side, I will, as a courtesy to Mr. Benson, try and keep from going absolutely ballistic about a 6% inflation rate, because the advertised 3.5% inflation rate is plenty unacceptable enough. To that end, I will place my own hands around my own throat, like this, and choke myself, like this, until I almost pass out, and then the lack of blood to my brain will make me forget about the 3.5% infl, ifla, iflana, ummm, 3.5%, ummm, things are fading, fading, I am starting to black out, yes, I am slipping from consciousness, my brain is slowly dying, and suddenly Keynesian economics and the idiot theories of the Federal Reserve starts to make sense to me and, and, and (fade to black).

snip>

- Bob T. from Milwaukee wanted to know a few things, one of them being the likelihood of Russia attacking the USA with nuclear bombs, as is all the rage among a certain set of people. The answer is zero, as there is no advantage to them doing that, as nobody can make money by creating a radioactive disaster area. And since everything is about the money, there is no reason for them to attack us. The whole point is to make it SEEM as if there were some military threat, so that Congress can spend money on the military-industrial complex, and confiscate our money and our stuff and our basic freedoms guaranteed under the Bill of Rights by appealing to our sense of patriotism. And if that doesn't work, then they will cram our patriotism down our throats and our Constitutional freedoms up our butts, like that filthy fascist bastard Woodrow Wilson did in 1917. And the Russian government can do the same thing to THEIR people. That's how the thing works.

- Make no mistake about it; the government of the USA is going to do everything in its power to make sure that the stock market does not go down. Instead, they are going to do everything they can to make sure that it goes up. The reason is that they only get taxes from people and firms reporting profits. If there is no profit, there is no tax due. If, horror of horrors, there are losses, they are the old double-whammy to the government's head; not only do they not collect any taxes, but they have to let the person or firm deduct losses from gains! And they only pay tax on that part that is labeled as a "gain."

Theoretically, if the stock market crashed far enough, and losses were accumulated widely enough, then all the governments that rule us with an iron fist, a boot of steel and a subpoena of paper, would collect zero money. And not just for this year, but for years and years to come, as those aggregated losses are gradually whittled away, deducted from gains (if any) one by one. And it will continue until that glorious day, out in the distant future, when there are no more losses to deduct from gains. Then, and only then, will the damn governments get back into the business of taxing everyone at 100% of gains.

So what does this mean for stock investments? Well, they are hoping that their slimy backdoor manipulations of the stock and bond markets, plus the forced savings of workers to require them to "invest" money into the stock or bond markets as part of the Fabulous Plan to Save Social Security, plus continued deficit spending may all combine to keep the stock and bond markets up and producing gains.

And although that dimwitted, ignorant blowhard Larry Kudlow is convinced of the contrary, it is evident from the fact that it has never happened before that there is no freaking way that everybody will prosper by continually investing in the stock market, and it is lunacy for him to even say it. But he did, as part of a remark by him that this Fabulous Plan To Save Social Security is a good one, and that we ought to raise the retirement age, and then I heard with my own ears that we people are going to be grateful that we will all be wealthy from investing in the stock market.

more...

[UpInArms]

44. thanks 54anickel, I needed

that laugh

To that end, I will place my own hands around my own throat, like this, and choke myself, like this, until I almost pass out, and then the lack of blood to my brain will make me forget about the 3.5% infl, ifla, iflana, ummm, 3.5%, ummm, things are fading, fading, I am starting to black out, yes, I am slipping from consciousness, my brain is slowly dying, and suddenly Keynesian economics and the idiot theories of the Federal Reserve starts to make sense to me and, and, and (fade to black).

thought it was just me that felt that braindead morons were steering this Titanic :D

[54anickel]

46. Here's a toon for you then UIA

And you can apply it to the tsunami of bucks flowing from the Fed to our economy as much as you can to the aid being sent overseas.

[UpInArms]

42. Lookie Here: Tyson Foods to temporarily suspend some beef operations

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.4433405903-830702632&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Tyson Foods (TSN) said Thursday that it plans to temporarily suspend some of its beef operations because of "unfavorable" operating margins and weak domestic demand for beef. Tyson Foods said 2,100 workers will be affected by the suspensions at five beef plants. The suspensions will begin on Monday and are expected to last for three to five weeks. The company forecast 2005 earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.40. Analysts at Thomson First Call are expecting earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.50.

maybe people are deciding that mad cows are not good for their health?

[54anickel]

47. Yep, and the unfavorable operating margins are probably being

blamed on the fact that there's STILL a union involved in too many of their beef plants...Bastards!

[durablend]

79. Too much leftover at the supermarket...

You see a lot of it here that has to be reduced because it hits the "sell by" date.

Maybe the exhorbitant prices have something to do with it...

(NAH...can't be!)

[UpInArms]

43. 11:05 EST numbers (all red now) and blather

perhaps that cheering was bit premature?

Dow 10,595.83 -2.00 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,089.43 -1.81 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,183.68 -0.06 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 42.65 -0.12 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 447,784,000
Nasdaq Volume 745,144,000

11:00AM: Market retreats noticeably as oil prices hit fresh session highs... Crude oil prices ($44.85/bbl +$1.46), which had fallen more than 1% yesterday as traders weighed a surprise increase in distillates against a large decline in crude stockpiles, have surged nearly 4% in repsonse to a larger than expected decline in Natural Gas inventories... Oil & Gas stocks (+0.6%) have taken note and recently turned positive, however, on the heels of the Energy Dept's release...NYSE Adv/Dec 1726/1212, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1508/1242

10:30AM: Major indices hold steady at improved levels as sellers remain a reluctant bunch... Biotech and technology have led the early buying drive, despite weakness in software (-0.8%) and hardware (-0.2%), while transportation, health care, financial, homebuilding and materials have also realized modest gains... Retail (-1.0%), despite solid Dec comp sales, has succumbed to profit taking while utility and energy have extended yesterday's losses...

Airline (-1.5%), which rebounded earlier after losing nearly 6.0% yesterday, has recently fallen following negative news from Continental Airlines (CAL 10.53 -0.68)... CAL has said that failure to achieve its previously announced $500 mln wage and benefit cost reduction by Feb 28, 2005 could ultimately result in the airline having inadequate liquidity to meet obligations...NYSE Adv/Dec 1586/1221, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1562/1074

[54anickel]

48. Heh-heh, I really wanted to put "We'll see" in some of those cheery

early day posts. Hey, they may still be able to pull a wee-bit of a gain outta their a$$. Me, I'm guessing we'll see day 4 of 4 down.

[UpInArms]

52. 11:38 EST numbers (back up there - cheery cheery cheery)

Dow 10,643.42 +45.59 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,099.66 +8.42 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,188.53 +4.79 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 42.65 -0.12 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 592,503,000
Nasdaq Volume 939,759,000

[UpInArms]

45. Crude futures climb to two-week high above $45

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.4637828588-830703609&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures climbed as much as 5 percent to tap a two-week high above $45 a barrel in late morning trade. February crude was last up $1.71 at $45.10 a barrel. "It appears to be a primarily technical move thus far, as a lot of buy stops have been triggered as February crude got above $44.35," said Jeff Mokychic, head analyst at Bridgeton Global Investor Services.

[54anickel]

50. Iraq is Lost: Bush and Blair are Deluding Themselves (Linked at

321gold.com - just in case anyone missed it earlier this week) There's a link to the entire transcript at the end.

http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=4957

"The American project for democracy or whatever its real purposes were, for oil, economic expansion, Middle East fit for Israel, whatever it may have been, that project is finished. It is hopeless. It cannot succeed. The insurgency in Iraq is so great now that American troops, however enormous their technology, cannot control it."

"Not only do our leaders suffer from this mania of deluding themselves, but the press by their silence or by their complicity, assist in this process of self-delusion. Indeed, they self-delude themselves. In Britain, we have, you know, some newspapers, my own, The Independent, The Guardian and increasingly, I suspect The Daily Telegraph, which is no longer prepared to do this. They say, hold on a second, we have got to live on Planet Earth."

Well, I think that the whole project in Iraq is finished. We are not being told by Mr. Blair in my case and Bush in yours that this is the case, and perhaps through their own misjudgment or their own fantasies, they don’t even accept this themselves. But the American project for democracy or whatever its real purposes were, for oil, economic expansion, Middle East fit for Israel, whatever it may have been, that project is finished. It is hopeless. It cannot succeed. The insurgency in Iraq is so great now that American troops, however enormous their technology, cannot control it.

The Iraqi so-called ministers, and I include Iyad Allawi, the so-called interim prime minister, who was of course appointed by the Americans as a former C.I.A. asset, they behave like statesmen when they tour the world or turn up in Washington, but in Baghdad they’re not even safe inside their little Green Zone. They’re not even the Mayor of Baghdad, they have less power than the town clerk. So, we have reached a stage now where insurgents control much of the country. The only safe part of Iraq is Kurdistan in the north, which is effectively an autonomous region, outside of the control anyway of the Iraqi government. And the elections, which are coming up, appear doomed because already we’re hearing that if the Sunnis won’t take part, the Americans are trying to persuade the unelected government to appoint Sunni Muslims to make up for the voters who didn’t vote. This is not an election, this is a charade. And what has happened is that the alienation of the Iraqis as a people from the West has been brought about by lunatic policies by the State Department and by the Pentagon, I’m afraid by the behavior of American troops and a lesser expect, but nonetheless culpable British troops and by the fantasies, which drove this war in the first place, the idea that we were going to suddenly create democracy in the Middle East.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Swallow Iraq: The Little Bird Knew

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss010605.html

Just for the sake of anybody who might have been living under a rock for the last 18 months or has simply watched too much FOX or CNN news, I have to give it to you straight : US Secretary of State Colin Powell tried his best with his "movable chemical labs" speech at the UN. We know they have WMD.

Unfortunately, we all misinterpreted this whole thing. WMD always stood for "Want More (oil) Drilling" rigs.

I know this because a little bird flew overhead, landed on my shoulder and whispered in my ear "psst, go take a look at those US petrol charts". So that's what I did. PS. I think the bird was a swallow.

Lo and behold, the WMD "secret" was clear for all to see. Sometimes we just need to find the right clues and just avoid asking ex-inspector Scott Ritter and ober-Chief Hans Blix, or at least know the right birds.

snip past the charts>

So, we've come full circle : I continue with my four (4) pieces of evidence above that the "energy story" is not only NOT OVER, it has not even started - wait, I take that back - it has started and Iraq is a prime example of the consequences. Whomever "owns" oil, basically owns it. "It" being Power & Control. So, when people watch that crude oil price and start howling like overly excited children as the price backs off $1 USD per barrel, you will know how to put it all in perspective.

[UpInArms]

51. Continental Air warns $500M cost-cuts needed

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.4702483449-830703971&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Continental Airlines (CAL) warned Thursday it must slash $500 million in operating costs by the end of February to avoid possible job cuts and fleet shrinkage. "Failure to achieve $500 million in annual wage and benefit cost reductions by Feb. 28 could ultimately result in the company having inadequate liquidity to meet its obligations," Continental said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Houston-based Continental, the No. 5 U.S. airline, outlined its plans to cut expenses last fall. Its shares skidded 6.8 percent to $10.45 in late morning trades.

finding $500 million in costs to cut?

probably start with that pesky retirement fund - the taxpayer is going to foot that bill anyway :eyes:

[54anickel]

55. Perhaps they'll be the next one to ask employees to work for FREE..n/t

[54anickel]

62. Judge Cancels US Airways, Machinists Pact

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050106/us_airways_6.html

ALEXANDRIA, Va. (AP) -- A bankruptcy judge on Thursday canceled a collective bargaining agreement between US Airways and its machinists union, providing millions of dollars in annual savings that the airline says will prevent the need for a quick liquidation.

The termination of the contract with the International Association of Machinists would result in pay cuts for union workers ranging from 6 percent to 35 percent and the loss of thousands of union jobs.

There still is a chance, however, that the union and the airline -- a subsidiary of US Airways Group Inc. -- will agree on a new deal.

US Airways lawyer Brian Leitch said Thursday that the machinists union had agreed to send the company's best final offer to the union rank and file for a vote. If the union accepts US Airways' offer on Jan. 21, the judge's action canceling the contract would be nullified.

snip>

He acknowledged the heavy job losses anticipated but said, "Which is worse, that half of the mechanics lose their jobs or that all of the mechanics lose their jobs" when the company would be forced to shut down.

more...

[54anickel]

54. NY gold tumbles early, eyes on $420 support level

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml?4YQDZYGSLOYGOCRBAEKSFEY?type=goldMktRpt

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures plunged to two-month lows Thursday morning on fund liquidation, and other precious metals mostly fell, trailing the euro, which hit a four-week low against the resurgent dollar, dealers said.

snip>

The market could be heading for a test of a key round-number support level in the near-term, traders said.

"It's more liquidation in gold, with a possible test of $420," said James Quinn, commodities commentator at A.G. Edwards & Sons.

A gold desk trader said: "It's positions being reduced. There is nothing really new. The market looks like it's seeing scale-down selling consistently through the day. Every rally seems to be sold, and that seems to be the pattern."

snip>

Many, but not all, analysts are mixed on gold in the longer term, amid expectations for continuing safe-haven buying due to concerns about the dollar, giant U.S. deficits, geopolitical worries and inflation concerns.

But Andy Smith of Mitsui Global Precious Metals said "cycle" strength in gold, and the commodities sector generally, may be flagging after the huge rise in open interest they enjoyed in November, when U.S. investment banks were buying before their "financial" year-end.
In a weekly metals note, Smith also suggested that the build-up in bullion held in the U.S. gold exchange-traded fund streetTRACKS appeared to have leveled out following its much-hyped launch on Nov. 18 on the New York Stock Exchange.

more...

edit for link

[UpInArms]

57. China firm may pursue Unocal: report

(Is there a bluelight special for US assets yet? On the other hand, China needs to spend those US dollars somewhere!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5A97A04E%2DFFC5%2D40F7%2DAD61%2D9894FF8608DF%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (CBS.MW) - Chinese oil and gas producer CNOOC, in a bid to increase production and its natural gas business, is pursuing the acquisition of Asian assets from a foreign oil company and may have an eye on Unocal Corp., according to a news report.

Citing sources, Reuters reported that CNOOC is ready to spend some of its $3 billion on acquisitions. The company recently generated $1 billion in proceeds from a bond issue.

CNOOC trails rivals PetroChina and Sinopec Corp. in China. The country has seen enormous growth in demand for oil as its economy has expanded.

Unocal (UCL: news, chart, profile), El Segundo, Calif., primarily produces oil and gas in North America and Asia. A spokesman for the company said it doesn't comment on market speculation.

...more...

Wonder how all those "oilies" will enjoy working for a Communist Chinese company? :eyes:

[54anickel]

60. Ewww, does China really want to get involved in THAT mess? Could

explain their desire for a huge military build-up.

http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/oil.html

[54anickel]

58. Another cool 14 billion in repos today

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

O/N = 5 Biggies
14 day = 9 Biggies

Yesterday added a 5 day for 3.5 Biggies late in the day.

Rack 'em up boys!!!

[UpInArms]

59. YeeHaw!

[54anickel]

61. Ding-ding-da-ding-ding-ding! He's a pinball wizard...

The deaf, dumb and blind Fed,
Sure plays a mean buck fall.

[UpInArms]

64. How do you think It does it?

What makes it so good?

Ain't got no distractions;
Can't hear no negative calls.
Don't see no markets crashin';
It plays by sense of smell.
Always gets to repprint,
'N' never seen it fall.
That deaf, dumb and blind Fed...

... Sure plays a mean buck fall!

[54anickel]

65. *SNARF* Thanks UIA!!!

I just couldn't get that creative today...but THAT is great!

[54anickel]

63. Stocks Rise Despite Mediocre Holiday Sales

(Heh, I just like the title)

Stocks Move Higher Despite Mediocre Holiday Sales From Retailers, Jump in Jobless Claims

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050106/wall_street_9.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors eager for a rebound pushed stocks higher Thursday despite a sharp rise in unemployment claims and mixed holiday sales reports from the nation's retailers.
Although stocks fluctuated in early trading, Wall Street greeted the Labor Department's weekly first-time jobless claims report with surprising calm. Jobless claims rose to 364,000 last week, up from 321,000 the week before -- the sharpest rise in nearly three years.

The unemployment news bodes ill for Friday's monthly job creation report, a key barometer of the labor market and the nation's economic health. Combined with another rise in oil prices and news this week that the Federal Reserve sees the potential for worsening inflation, and, in turn, higher interest rates, investors had reason to be nervous.

"No matter how you look at it, this market is facing a headwind," said Hans Olsen, managing director and chief investment officer at Bingham Legg Advisers in Boston. "With these job numbers the way they are and oil rising, and the Fed talking about inflation, you could potentially see a very muted economic recovery and much slimmer returns."

snip>

With Thursday's decline, the market continued what has been a disappointing start to 2005. While some pullback was expected after the strong finish to 2004, the market was unnerved by the prospect of higher rates, and any attempts to resume Wall Street's post-election rally have met with strong resistance.

more...

[54anickel]

66. 12:53 and they're doing the happy dance over the luch hour

Dow 10,640.09 +42.26 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,096.86 +5.62 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,188.10 +4.36 (+0.37%)
10-yr Bond 4.265% -0.012
30-yr Bond 4.838% -0.009
NYSE Volume 801,958,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,205,971,000

12:30PM : Little change in the past half hour, as the major indices continue to drift sideways... Some discouraging analyst remarks, however, have pressured the software sector all day... Shares of Check Point Software (CHKP 23.17 -1.01) and Symantec (SYMC 23.52 -1.52) have both been under pressure after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of both with Underweight ratings, citing concentration of revenues in slower markets for CHKP while industry consolidation and Microsoft's (MSFT 26.80 +0.02) entry into the antivirus space has prompted limited interest in SYMC...
Computer Associates (CA 28.93 -0.41) has also fallen after Merrill Lynch reduced its rating on the software provider to Neutral from Buy...NYSE Adv/Dec 1898/1232, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1626/1295

12:00PM : Market began the day higher, despite disappointing claims, mixed December comps and pressure from higher oil prices... Even though initial claims rose 43K, the largest jump since March 2002, the market has so far shrugged off the data, as investors have remained more focused on hiring activity rather than layoff activity... Seasonal factors, which have traditionally distorted data during holiday weeks, along with stabilization in the 4-week claims average, have also played a role in sustaining buying interest...

While there has seemed to be a winner for every loser, with regards to December same store sales, the glass has been half full for the rest of the market despite further consolidation in retail (-1.6%)... Meanwhile, renewed interest in crude oil futures ($45.40/bbl +2.01), following a decline in natural gas supplies, invited some interim selling pressure on equities, but investors have shaken it off while energy has continued to climb alongside the majority of other sectors...

Also moving higher midday has been biotech (+1.7%), after Genentech (DNA 53.97 +0.82) received FDA approval for a label warning, while strength in the disk drive space (+1.3%) has helped offset weakness in software (-0.7%) and hardware... Materials have also gained ground despite continued strength in the dollar while lower bond yields have helped homebuilding (+0.8%), as the 10-year note has climbed 6 ticks to yield 4.25%... Airline (-1.9%), however, has extended Wednesday's 6.0% decline after Continental Airlines (CAL 10.53 -0.68) announced possible liquidity concerns while utility and telecom services has also remained weak... NYSE Adv/Dec 1858/1221, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1648/1233

11:30AM : Stocks show resilience and shrug off recent weakness, as the blue chip indices touch new highs despite market internals holding a slightly bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE now hold a slight edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq barely outpace advancing issues by 14 to 13 margin... Volumes however, which have been rather heavy over the last two days, have been on the lighter side as activity on the Big Board has just recently touched 500 mln shares while the Composite has yet to reach 1.0 bln...

Meanwhile, the dollar has extended gains for the fourth consecutive day against both the euro (1.3204) and the yen (104.85) in anticipation that strong December employment data could signal additional rate hikes...NYSE Adv/Dec 1436/1569, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1346/1458

11:00AM : Market retreats noticeably as oil prices hit fresh session highs... Crude oil prices ($45.25/bbl +$1.86), which had fallen more than 1% yesterday as traders weighed a surprise increase in distillates against a large decline in crude stockpiles, have surged more than 4% in repsonse to a larger than expected decline in Natural Gas inventories... Oil & Gas stocks (+0.6%) have taken note and recently turned positive, however, on the heels of the Energy Dept's release...NYSE Adv/Dec 1726/1212, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1508/1242

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1912 (57%) 1611 (52%)
Declines 1264 (37%) 1338 (43%)
Unchanged 152 (4%) 147 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 459 (60%) 562 (48%)
Down Vol* 288 (38%) 570 (49%)
Unch. Vol* 7 (0%) 26 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 26 25
New Lo's 14 20

[54anickel]

67. Part 1: Why the emperor has no clothes

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA06Dj01.html

Uncle Sam has reneged and defaulted on up to 40% of its trillion-dollar foreign debt, and nobody has said a word except for a line in The Economist. In plain English that means Uncle Sam runs a worldwide confidence racket with his self-made dollar based on the confidence that he has elicited and received from others around the world, and he is a also a deadbeat in that he does not honor and return the money he has received.

How much of our dollar stake we have lost depends on how much we originally paid for it. Uncle Sam let his dollar fall, or rather through his deliberate political economic policies drove it down, by 40%, from 80 cents to the euro to 133 cents. The dollar is down by a similar factor against the yen, yuan and other currencies. And it is still declining, indeed is apt to plummet altogether.

There was also a spate of competitive devaluations in the 1930s, called the "beggar thy neighbor policy" of shifting the costs for the neighbors to bear. True, as the dollar has declined, so has the real value that foreigners pay to service their debt to Uncle Sam. But that works only if they can themselves earn in currencies that have increased in value against the dollar. Otherwise, foreigners earn and pay in the same devalued dollars, and even then with some loss from devaluation between the time they got their dollars and the time they repay them to Uncle Sam. China and other East Asian nations do earn in dollars, to which they have pegged their currencies, so they have already lost a substantial portion of their dollar stake, by far the world's largest.

And they, like all others, will also lose the rest. For Uncle Sam's debt to the rest of the world already amounts to more than a third of his annual domestic production and is still growing. That alone already makes his debt economically and politically never repayable, even if he wanted to, which he does not. Uncle Sam's domestic, eg credit-card, debt is almost 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) and consumption, including that from China. Uncle Sam's federal debt is now US$7.5 trillion, of which all but $1 trillion was built up in the past three decades, the last $2 trillion in the past eight years, and the last $1 trillion in the past two years. Alas, that costs more than $300 billion a year in interest, compared with, for example, the $15 billion spent annually on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). But no worries: Congress just raised the debt ceiling to $8.2 trillion. To help us visualize, $1 trillion tightly packed up in $1,000 bills would match a building 40 stories high.

But nearly half is owed to foreigners. All Uncle Sam's debt, including private household consumer credit-card, mortgage etc debt of about $10 trillion, plus corporate and financial, with options, derivatives and the like, and state and local government debt comes to an unvisualizable, indeed unimaginable, $37 trillion, which is nearly four times Uncle Sam's GDP. Only some of that can be managed domestically, but with dangerous limitations for Uncle Sam noted below. That is only one reason I want you to meet Uncle Sam, the deadbeat confidence man, who may remind you of the film Meet Joe Black; for as we get to know him better below, we will find that he is also a Shylock, and a corrupt one at that.

more...

[RawMaterials]

69. 1:24 EST Market Update and blather

1:00PM: More of the same as stocks continue to trade in a relatively narrow range... Despite turning slightly negative around 11:00, the pull back appears to have shaken out much of today's weakness as market breadth has held a more convincingly bullish bias ever since... Investors may feel the market has been rather oversold following three straight days of declines, however, the moves to the upside have come on lighter than usual volumes ahead of tomorrow's vital jobs data...NYSE Adv/Dec 1891/1290, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1634/1329

12:30PM: Little change in the past half hour, as the major indices continue to drift sideways... Some discouraging analyst remarks, however, have pressured the software sector all day... Shares of Check Point Software (CHKP 23.17 -1.01) and Symantec (SYMC 23.52 -1.52) have both been under pressure after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of both with Underweight ratings, citing concentration of revenues in slower markets for CHKP while industry consolidation and Microsoft's (MSFT 26.80 +0.02) entry into the antivirus space has prompted limited interest in SYMC...

Computer Associates (CA 28.93 -0.41) has also fallen after Merrill Lynch reduced its rating on the software provider to Neutral from Buy...NYSE Adv/Dec 1898/1232, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1626/1295

[54anickel]

70. Whoa babycakes! 1:26 and shootin' for the stars

Lookie at those lines goin' straight up! If I didn't know better, I'd say someone got into the fairy dust again.

Dow 10,659.39 +61.56 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,095.93 +4.69 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,189.85 +6.11 (+0.52%)
10-yr Bond 4.27% -0.007
30-yr Bond 4.843% -0.004
NYSE Volume 908,163,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,340,043,000

1:00PM: More of the same as stocks continue to trade in a relatively narrow range... Despite turning slightly negative around 11:00, the pull back appears to have shaken out much of today's weakness as market breadth has held a more convincingly bullish bias ever since... Investors may feel the market has been rather oversold following three straight days of declines, however, the moves to the upside have come on lighter than usual volumes ahead of tomorrow's vital jobs data...NYSE Adv/Dec 1891/1290, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1634/1329

edit for typo in the time :silly:

[54anickel]

71. Gotta run for a bit Marketeers!

I've rescheduled today's afternoon job for Monday, but now that it has finally quit snowing, I need to dig out the old truck, empty my gear back into my boo-hop car and do some serious snow shoveling.

Will check back in later to see if the happy, happy, joy, joy tone of the market continues to hold. :hi:

[RawMaterials]

73. Market Update 209 EST

2:00PM: The broader averages push to their highest levels of the session on the heels of encouraging comments from the Fed... Kansas City's Federal Reserve Bank President Hoenig has said that the current fed funds rate remains accommodative, that jobs growth will happen and that inflation should not be an issue... Stocks have pushed higher on the news while treasuries, in contrast, have barely budged as the overall sentiment among traders remain focused on December payroll growth... The 10-year note is still up 3 ticks to yield 4.26%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1921/1302, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1633/1373

1:30PM: Stock market climbs a bit higher, spearheaded by strong leadership in blue chips... Twenty two of the Dow's 30 components have caught a bid in afternoon trading... Leading the charge has been Caterpillar (CAT 94.21 +1.99), which has regained much of the 2.0% it lost Wednesday, while Merck (MRK 31.66 +0.32), after launching an early-stage clinical cancer trial, has also surged more than 1.0%... Also showing strength have been MMM (+1.8%), DIS (+1.3%), GM (+1.1%), C (+1.1%) and XOM (+1.1%) while HD (-1.5%), AXP (-0.7%) and VZ (-0.5%) have lagged... NYSE Adv/Dec 1815/1377, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1565/1418

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[UpInArms]

75. Marsh 'saddened' by Spitzer conviction of employee

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38358.631075463-830712428&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Marsh & McLennan (MMC) said Thursday that it was "saddened" by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's conviction of Robert Stearns, a senior vice president and broker at the firm. The company is continuing to cooperate with Spitzer's investigations and is committed to resolving its legal issues, Marsh added in a statement. Stearns pleaded guilty to the criminal charge of taking part in a scheme to defraud in the first degree, a felony which carries a maximum sentence of four years, Spitzer said. Stearns no longer works for Marsh, a company spokeswoman said earlier Thursday. Marsh shares fell 3.2 percent to $31.63 in afternoon trading Thursday.

Well, la-de-dah! They are saddened not because their Senior Vice President committed fraud and plead guilty to this - but because that nasty Eliot Spitzer had the gall and utter temerity to press the case!

Wow! Orwell would be laughing his ass off!

[54anickel]

76. Maddening, ain't it? Between this and the story of the guys from

WorldCON having to pay outta "their own pockets" (yeah, whatever), I just get more ticked off. They want sympathy? Didn't know it was wrong? Everyone ELSE is doing it? Blah, blah, blah. :nopity:

[UpInArms]

81. Here's the "sad" story - Marsh exec pleads guilty in Spitzer probe

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2608DD41%2D71B7%2D43E0%2D90A6%2D8FD8CF562AE8%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said Thursday that a former Marsh & McLennan senior executive pleaded guilty to fraud charges as part of an investigation into bid-rigging and steering in the insurance industry.

Robert Stearns, who until recently was a senior vice president and broker at Marsh (MMC: news, chart, profile), admitted that between 2002 and 2004 he told insurers to submit uncompetitive bids for business and presented those bids falsely and fraudulently to clients, Spitzer said in a statement.

Shares of Marsh lost $1.17, or 3.6 percent, to $31.53 in afternoon trading.

Stearns, 40, pleaded guilty to the crime of taking part in a Scheme to Defraud in the First Degree, a felony which carries a maximum sentence of 4 years in state prison, Spitzer added.

New York's top cop sued Marsh, the world's largest broker, in October for allegedly rigging bids and accepting so-called contingent commissions for steering business to favored insurers.

<snip>

On March 19, 2003, Stearns emailed a colleague, William McBurnie, about a Chubb Corp. (CB: news, chart, profile) account that was up for renewal.

"Chubb have quoted lead renewal at ... $135,000. Would you please have AIG provide a B," Stearns wrote.

Several minutes later, Stearns followed up with more specific directions: "A 'B' would be a quote from AIG which is higher in premium and more restrictive in coverage thus supporting the Chubb quote," he explained.

A week earlier, Stearns emailed Marsh broker April Greenwood asking her to get an inflated quote from Zurich so that the incumbent insurer St. Paul Travelers (STA: news, chart, profile) could hold onto an account.

"Can you get me a B from Zurich. Client will be binding with St. Paul at $270,000 all coverages as expiring. $325,000 should work," Stearns wrote. Later that day, in another e-mail, he reiterated to Greenwood that Zurich should "issue a B on the lead at $325,000 or more."

...more...

:nopity:

awww - the poorr pooorrr pitiful mr. stearns - that nasty bad man made him do it!

[54anickel]

77. 3:40 and sort of pooping out, but still in the black

Dow 10,627.90 +30.07 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,095.35 +4.11 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,188.41 +4.67 (+0.39%)
10-yr Bond 42.72 -0.05 (-0.12%)
30-yr Bond 48.54 +0.07 (+0.14%)
NYSE Volume 1,394,193,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,942,872,000

3:30PM: Modest gains still paving the way for the market's first upbeat close of the New Year... Making headlines tomorrow will be the much anticipated release of the Labor Department's employment report... At 8:30 ET, investors will get a read on December non-farm payrolls (consensus 175K), the unemployment rate (consensus 5.4%), Hourly Earnings (consensus +0.2%) and Average Workweek (consensus 33.8)... At 15:00 ET, the market will find out if consumers added $6 bln in debt during November while no notable earnings reports will hit the wires until Monday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1965/1317, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1703/1380

3:00PM: Stocks pull back somewhat heading into the last hour of trading but remain in positive territory... Negative on the day, however, has been gold... The precious metal has traded back to pre-election levels, closing down 1.3% to $421.60/ounce and nearly $17 per ounce lower over the last four sessions, as the dollar continues to rally against the euro (1.3169)... Since gold is denominated in the US currency, its attraction as a hedge against declines in US assets and potential inflation has become less warranted... NYSE Adv/Dec 2046/1210, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1774/1297

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1956 (56%) 1640 (50%)
Declines 1341 (38%) 1467 (45%)
Unchanged 150 (4%) 113 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 798 (61%) 898 (48%)
Down Vol* 486 (37%) 948 (51%)
Unch. Vol* 17 (1%) 12 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 32 35
New Lo's 16 25


And the buck, soaring with the eagles

Last trade 83.17 Change +0.64 (+0.78%)

Settle 82.54 Settle Time 23:37

Open 82.58 Previous Close 82.54

High 83.23 Low 82.43

[54anickel]

80. Fed Minutes Point to Higher Rates

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

The Federal Reserve threw a wet towel on the bond market this week when it released the minutes of the December FOMC meeting. The Fed said that “the current level of the real funds rate target remained below the level it most likely would need to reach to keep inflation stable and output at its potential.” It went on further to say that, “With the economic expansion more firmly entrenched, cost and price pressures were likely to become a clearer intermediate-term risk to sustained good economic performance absent further reduction of accommodation.”

We have chronicled the strong economy and the Fed shares the same view. It summarized the economic environment in by saying, “Consumer spending was solid, and investment spending remained strong. Manufacturing production increased at a modest pace, and employment gains in October and November indicated that the labor market continued to improve gradually.” It noted elsewhere that the employment growth was “disappointing” in November, but “when viewed over several months, labor market conditions were generally seen as gradually improving.” Everyone will be focused on Friday’s non-farm payroll report.

snip>

Perhaps most telling was this passage, “Some participants believed that the prolonged period of policy accommodation had generated a significant degree of liquidity that might be contributing to signs of potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets evidenced by quite narrow credit spreads, a pickup in initial public offerings, an upturn in mergers and acquisition activity, and anecdotal reports that speculative demands were becoming apparent in the markets for single-family homes and condominiums.”

The Fed minutes caused the entire yield curve to jump about ten basis points. The Fed also opined that “the generally low level of interest rates across a wide range of maturities and the recent flattening of the slope of the yield curve (measured as the spread between ten- and two-year Treasury yields) might signal that expectations of longer-term growth had been marked down.” The table below shows the impact of the minutes on the yield curve along with where rates were last year.

snip>

Concern that the Fed is behind the curve heightened this week with the release of the FOMC minutes. Recent strong economic data has fueled those fears as well. Now, we learn that the Fed is concerned about excess liquidity in the financial system causing distortions. Unless the economy starts to dramatically slow, which is quite possible, Greenspan will preside over quite a few more rate increases during his last year at the helm.

[54anickel]

82. The Trouble With Fannie Mae

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48621-2005Jan4.html?referrer=emailarticle

snip>

At last count about 69 percent of U.S. households owned their homes, up from 55 percent in 1950. You might wonder: How much higher can, or should, this go?

Millions of young Americans are too footloose to want a home. Some older Americans are too feeble to handle a home. Some people prefer to rent. In many big cities, renting dominates (in New York state, homeownership is only 54 percent). Among minorities, homeownership lags; still, there have been improvements. The rate is 49 percent among blacks (up from 43 percent in 1991) and 48 percent among Hispanics (up from 39 percent). The remaining obstacles involve poverty more than flaws in the housing market.

All this serves as useful background to the controversy surrounding Fannie Mae, the nation's largest mortgage company. If you've paid attention, you know that chief executive Franklin Raines and chief financial officer Timothy Howard left the company after two federal agencies accused Fannie Mae of improper accounting to the tune of $9 billion in unrecorded losses. In 2003 a similar accounting controversy engulfed Freddie Mac, another huge mortgage company.

The temptation is to treat these incidents as further examples of executive bad behavior -- while also defending Fannie and Freddie's critical role for housing. This is exactly the wrong response: It favors a false problem (homeownership) over a real one (a possible failure of Fannie or Freddie).

These are not ordinary companies. Most corporations are chartered by states. By contrast, Congress created Fannie and Freddie. It gave them dual missions: to aid housing by providing mortgage credit, and to make money for shareholders. In financial markets, both Fannie and Freddie are seen as quasi-government agencies. Their debt enjoys low interest rates just above Treasury rates. A default by either would be considered a government default -- a crisis. The result is a potential disaster for taxpayers: It's a heads-I-win-tails-you-lose proposition. If Fannie and Freddie prosper, benefits go to shareholders; if there's trouble, government will almost certainly rescue them.

more...

[RawMaterials]

83. Thats basically the deal with allot of companies now

look at the airline industry and the car industry government wont let them fail witch is counter intuitive to capitalism. bad business needs to fail other wise you end up with more of a capitalistic society consumers fighting each other for goods, but the producers the corporations using government welfare to stay in business and reap more and more profits from the consumer twice i might add first with profits from goods second from the taxes we pay going back to the corporations.

[54anickel]

84. Tragedy or Mystery or Both? (Bonner)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/bonner/bonner67.html

The story in the financial markets had changed from a tragedy to a mystery. The collapsing dollar should have brought down prices of the assets it measures – most notably, the prices of U.S. bonds, which are extremely sensitive to changes in interest rates or currency movement. There are about $10 trillion of U.S. dollar assets in foreign hands. Yet, bonds have not gone down – at least in dollar terms, which leads us to pose the Ten Trillion Dollar Question: Why not?

We will not remind you of poor Mr. Asakawa. You've already heard enough about him. But how many times have people like him – with, collectively, trillions of dollars' worth of assets – almost reached for the phone? How many strangers overseas have wondered if they shouldn't say "SELL EVERYTHING" before losing more money on the currency exchange markets?

And yet, they have not picked up the phone. They have not sold. Bonds, which would be the first things to be sold, have held their value...or actually risen. Meanwhile, on the very same page, where the health of the bond market is reported, is an article assuring us that almost every sentient analyst and expert anywhere in the solar system now expects the dollar to fall more! "Prospects are grim for the dollar," says the International Herald Tribune headline.

The scene might be from an Italian movie from the '60s; "surreal" might reviewers describe it: Dollar holders see the train coming. (They have subscriptions to the IHT too!) But they continue enjoying their picnic – right in the middle of the tracks

• And so the plot thickens....

more...

[54anickel]

85. U.S. stocks end mixed; Dow posts first gains of 2005

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050106/f799379b5834a5c64a480cb4aaa6c97d_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Blue chips ended higher Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak to post their first gains of 2005, but the Nasdaq faded into the close, amid some caution ahead of Friday's key employment report.

snip>

The market is in a vacuum ahead of Friday's U.S. employment report and, a few days later, the start in earnest of fourth-quarter earnings season, according to Jim Paulson, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management.

"Does anyone really want to take a stand ahead of tomorrow's job numbers?" asked Paulson. "People are going to make up their minds not only on that (the employment report), but will also be looking ahead to the next two weeks when the earnings numbers really start coming in."

Jobless claims jump
Investors reacted with equanimity to a sharper-than-expected rise in weekly jobless claims ahead of the U.S. report on payrolls and unemployment for December.

Claims during this period are traditionally skewed by seasonal factors, when thousands of workers are hired for temporary jobs and are then let go. The timing of the hiring and firing can warp the weekly data.

more...

[DoBotherMe]

86. Today's close and comments

Dow 10,622.88 +25.05 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,090.00 –1.24 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,183.74 +4.14 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.272% -0.005 (-0.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,567,188,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,151,440,000


Close: Stocks began with an upbeat bias but closed in split fashion as buyers found few upside catalysts on a day of choppy trading to keep all the major indices in positive territory...

Blue chips showed resilience and closed a bit higher, with the Dow and S&P eking out modest gains, but renewed selling into the close, for the fourth straight session, closed the Nasdaq in negative territory... One underlying theme was tomorrow's vital employment report following this morning's weekly jobless claims figures...

But while initial claims for unemployment rose 43K last week, the market dismissed the data and remained more focused on hiring activity rather than jobless benefits... Another issue was rising oil prices, but with inflation under control in 2004, despite oil hitting record highs of $55/bbl, today's action warily showed that the market remains less sensitive to large swings in oil prices, as crude oil prices surged 5% to $45.56/bbl...

Lending support to the fact that the economy can hold up just fine with oil in the $40-50 range were comments from Fed Governor Hoenig's noting that inflation is unlikely to become an issue in 2005 as well...

Last but not least, December same store sales were out this morning...

While the results were relatively mixed, encouraging January comps guidance of 2-4% from Wal-Mart (WMT 54.03 +0.74) helped spur interest in blue chips even though the retail sector (-1.7%) as a whole trailed only airline stocks to the downside...

Airline added a 2.3% decline to yesterday's 6.0% drubbing after Continental Airlines (CAL 10.38 -0.83) announced potential liquidity concerns in relation to restructuring its wages and benefits...

[54anickel]

87. Hmmph, sort of a mixed bag there. Guess we'll have to see what

tomorrow brings with the jobs report. They are expecting a 186,000 to 200,000 jobs-gain. They certainly ignored today's news, opting to listen to the Fed's Goldilocks tale instead. :shakesheadindisbelief:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Currencies&siteid=mktw&dist=

snip>

U.S. payroll figures due out Friday are forecast to have expanded by 186,000 in December, according to the average of a survey by CBS MarketWatch. This would be well ahead of the prior month's 112,000-job gain. See Economic Preview.

But speculation among those buying up the battered dollar late this week was for a December payrolls figure closer to 200,000, traders said.

snip>

"The dollar has once again resumed its winning streak against a number of the major currencies. While this will bring a degree of relief to exporters outside of the U.S., it's going to do little to close the trade deficit," said Wayne Roworth, senior foreign-exchange dealer with CMC Group in New York.

Masatoshi Nishi, chief manager of the treasury and securities division at Saitama Resona Bank in Tokyo, said that investors were buying up the dollar to pare their short positions and that the greenback could come under pressure as they take profits on these positions.

"That would pave the way for more dollar selling," he said.


snip>

"It's not just a correction anymore. There are now fresh, speculative flows supporting the U.S. dollar," said Peter Stoneham, managing currency analyst at Thomson IFR in London.

more...