4 years of Bush loses 1,208,000 private sector jobs-208k seas adj overall

[papau]

Thank God for the growth in Government jobs under Bush. Otherwise the job loss before seasonal adjustment would have been 1,208,000 instead of 281,000 for the period Dec 00 to Dec 04.

Of course Bush changed the seasonal adjustment rules during the period, so on a seasonal adjustment basis he only lost 1,132,000 private sector jobs, and 208,000 jobs overall sectors.

Now ABC News Daniel Arnall says the Labor Department http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm reported this morning that the economy added 157,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate remains at 5.4 percent, the economy added nearly 2.1 million jobs last year — the best for growth since 1999, but saddly President Bush's first term still shows a net job loss of 210,000.

So where do his numbers come from?

Seems Total non-farm after Seasonal Adjustment is the Source as that is closest to his number -giving a drop of 208,000 Dec 00 to Dec 04.


A. Not Seasonally Adjusted Total nonfarm

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

2000 128763 129428 130526 131525 132481 132998 131777 131785 132450 133007 133372 133308 131785
2001 130433 131098 131690 132094 132800 133179 131686 131613 131871 132072 131880 131491 131826
2002 128602 129069 129672 130257 131023 131404 129959 130044 130559 131227 131346 130933 130341
2003 128248 128660 129148 129781 130520 130830 129481 129512 130135 130924 131071 130862 129931
2004 128190 128786 129816 130978 131881 132325 131173 131209 131924 132928 133207(p) 133027(p) 131287(p)
p : preliminary


B. Not Seasonally Adjusted Total private
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

2000 108272 108547 109406 110334 110938 112082 112029 112139 111901 111971 112179 112148 110996
2001 109680 109890 110351 110707 111368 112047 111637 111564 110815 110499 110148 109783 110707
2002 107303 107358 107836 108411 109076 109862 109593 109648 109194 109349 109330 108976 108828
2003 106706 106735 107131 107783 108537 109250 109043 109120 108820 109067 109109 108967 108356
2004 106767 106962 107847 108996 109920 110812 110769 110782 110455 110934 111060(p) 110940(p) 109687(p)
p : preliminary


C. Seasonally Adjusted Total nonfarm

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

2000 130730 130876 131369 131677 131908 131883 132043 132015 132104 132134 132317 132441
2001 132388 132492 132507 132236 132237 132087 131972 131831 131564 131203 130871 130659
2002 130494 130404 130447 130379 130381 130406 130295 130306 130259 130342 130305 130096
2003 130190 130031 129921 129901 129873 129859 129814 129789 129856 129944 130027 130035
2004 130194 130277 130630 130954 131162 131258 131343 131541 131660 131972 132109(p) 132266(p)
p : preliminary

D. Seasonally Adjusted Total privateIndustry
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

2000 110161 110280 110640 110879 110761 110992 111181 111170 111349 111387 111552 111643
2001 111560 111591 111564 111248 111204 110972 110805 110590 110302 109917 109535 109312
2002 109123 109006 109010 108933 108872 108881 108807 108722 108680 108750 108712 108501
2003 108572 108406 108305 108304 108332 108292 108253 108209 108317 108384 108483 108491
2004 108667 108738 109077 109382 109618 109730 109771 109912 110008 110297 110422(p) 110550(p)

[papau]

1. 1,531,000 pretend jobs are in the job gains over the last 2 years

1,531,000 pretend jobs are in the job gains over the last 2 years.

Funny how these folks just never get around to reporting payroll taxes and w-2 wages. So the DOL must do a "statistical correction birth/Death" number - and thank goodess that the DOL adds it in or job creation would really look bad!

But really folks, all they are talking about a lag in reporting to gov all those self employed working at home folks - but somehow DOL can not find a way to true-up when in Feb of each year the tapes and paper and disks come in to the IRS with 12/31 exact 1099 and w-2 data.

[mhr]

2. George's Missing 10.2 Million Jobs

Employment Picture Still Dreary
Comstock Funds
January 06, 2005

Whatever the December payroll employment report shows tomorrow, it can’t come close to making a dent in the serious jobs shortfall of the current economic expansion. Here’s why. The NBER officially designated November 2001 as the bottom of the last recession, meaning that the November report marked the third anniversary of the upturn. During this 36-month period total non-farm payroll employment increased only 0.9%, a number that pales in comparison to past cycles. Over the last seven economic expansions the average rise for a comparable period was 8.7%. If that were the case on the current cycle there would have been 10.2 million more jobs than the total number reported for November, and the average monthly increase for the 36-month period would have been 316,000 per month. Instead the average monthly rise was a paltry 33,000, and even over the past 12 months when employment picked up somewhat, the average monthly increase came to only 171,000, a far cry from the typical cyclical increase. In fact only three months of the 36 showed increases of more than 300,000 jobs.

Snip ......

http://www.comstockfunds.com/screenprint.cfm?newsletterid=1155

[Redleg]

3. But but... I thought the economy was doing well.

Bush will be out there today talking about how his tax cuts and policies have created great economic growth. When will the lib'rul media nail him on this bullshit?

[NYC]

4. That growth on the economy

is mold. Prosperity is not just around the corner.

[barb162]

12. hahahahahahahahahahaha

actually it's "turning the corner" (hahahaha)

[54anickel]

5. Thank you Papau!

I always look forward to your deciphering of this report each month.

:hi: :yourock:

[papau]

6. No problem - I get angry that the media does not analyse - or even just

report the facts of the report.

[nodictators]

7. Read the fine print, and the picture changes

The reported 157,000 job gain is for the Establisment count. One person can be counted as having 2 or 3 jobs. Here's their description:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
---snip---
Establishment survey. The sample establishments are drawn from private nonfarm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on nonfarm payrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, including persons on paid leave. Persons are counted in each job they hold.

So, someone loses a full-time job with benefits, and takes several part-time jobs with no benefits. Presto, number of jobs goes up.

Oops. There was a decline of 137,000 jobs from November in the Household survey. There:

Household survey. The sample is selected to reflect the entire
civilian noninstitutional population. Based on responses to a series of questions on work and job search activities, each person 16 years and over in a sample household is classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.
People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15 hours in a family business or farm. People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons.

Hell, with the Establishment survey the jobs count might have gone up during the Great Depression.

[KayLaw]

8. So, someone tell me

How long can they go on with this misrepresentation of the numbers?

[LynnTheDem]

9. George HOOVER bush.

Nice.

[HughBeaumont]

10. There are these two dorks on Yahoo

that go by the names of phillip_ian_ugh and ThinkingMansRepublican that you'll see there every time the jobs report come out, always steering the shitty Bushconomy news that comes out each month and overquoting the bls site to skew the numbers in their Fuhrer's favor. I wish you would go to the business boards with this and give them two freeptards a much-needed asshole-tearing.

[Anakin Skywalker]

11. Please Don't Contradict Bush 3:16

"The economy is strong" is gospel truth!

;)