ABC/WashPost: Dean Leads in NATIONAL Poll

[tsipple]

Just posted to DailyKos and Polling Report.

Howard Dean leads among likely Democratic voters in the new ABC News/Washington Post national poll just released. Joseph Lieberman leads among all Democrats nationally.

Among likely voters, Dean is at 20%, Kerry and Lieberman are at 19%, and Richard Gephardt is at 15%. The poll does include Wesley Clark, and he's at 6%. Then Sharpton at 5%.

Not all the methodology data is posted yet (sample size, margin of error).

(On edit: Corrected typos.)

[tedoll78]

Sweet!

Just wait until October 1st!!!

[tsipple]

7. Nice News for End-of-Q3 Fundraising

If I'm catching your drift.

[LuminousX]

1. Statistical dead heat

Between Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman.

This makes Kerry's call for a 1 on 1 debate even more interesting.

[pruner]

3. Lieberman's only in the top 3 cause he's got the highest name recognition

n/t

[evworldeditor]

11. My own private poll

Boy do we have some educating to do.

I've started taking my own informal poll among 'average' Americans including my neighbors and people I meet. I ask them to name three Democrats who are running to the presidency. . So far, not one has been able to name a single candidate EXCEPT "that guy who ran with Al Gore, what's his name?"

So, while we get all excited about the candidates and can name all nine, soon to be ten, my unofficial poll suggests most Americans are too busy, too complacent, or too stupid to care at this point. Wake me up about this time next year, but don't confuse me with the facts right now, seems to be the general response.

I'll keep asking and see how the trends go.

[pruner]

6. here's the Dean campaign's response to Kerry's call for a 1-on-1 debate

Jim Jordan
Campaign Manager
Kerry for President

Dear Jim:

I received and reviewed your letter inviting Governor Dean to participate in a series of one-on-one debates with Senator Kerry at the exclusion of the other seven candidates running for the Democratic nomination.

As you know, there have been and will continue to be numerous forums and debates that will provide the opportunity for each of the candidates to discuss the issues, to debate their ideas and address their differences with Governor Dean – or any other candidate -- directly. In fact, just last week, Representative Kucinich highlighted the difference between his position and that of Dick Gephardt on the pre-emptive war in Iraq. Specifically, he said, “I just want to say that when you were standing there in the Rose Garden with the president and you were giving him advice, I wish that you would have told him no, because as our Democratic leader, your position helped to inform mightily the direction of the war.”

As you may recall, during the debate in New Mexico, Senator Joe Lieberman challenged Governor Dean’s position on trade, saying – correctly or incorrectly – that it would lead to a “Dean Depression.”

Senator Kerry will continue to have ample opportunity to debate the differences between himself and Governor Dean during the upcoming candidate forums in New York, Arizona and Michigan.

Jim, there are nine candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for President – each with his or her own ideas and policies and each with the goal of defeating George Bush next November. For ANY candidate to suggest otherwise is presumptuous.

Governor Dean’s campaign has been about returning democracy to the hands of the American people. We believe it is up to the American people to narrow the field – through the democratic nominating process – and not for any one candidate to subvert this process simply because “that suits us.”

We trust the American people to decide what suits them.

Sincerely,
Joe Trippi

[IndianaGreen]

16. An excellent response, and putdown, by Joe Trippi

Just who Kerry thinks he is trying to keep Kucinich out of the debates? Is Dennis too working class for John?

[onehandle]

2. Wow!

We might as well stop the debates now. The fat lady has sung!

Ha ha ha....Wake me up when Lieberman is at 20%, and Dean and Kerry are at 19%. Surely the world will END for all DUers.

[tsipple]

4. OK, Now My Comments...

1. National polls are not particularly relevant, especially at this stage. Its all Iowa, New Hampshire, and a few other states perhaps.

2. Almost assuredly at least three candidates are bunched at top, within the margin of error. And these polls seem to be bouncing around a lot.

3. That said, the trend lines are obviously very good for Dean.

[janx]

9. Hey!

Now I really do want to have a house party. Isn't the end of the quarter at the end of this month?

[Eloriel]

13. Yes!!! Do it, do it!!

Please.

Eloriel

[Cha]

5. So Happy Dean is getting his message out there all over our

Country!

[caledesi]

18. I can't wait to donate. When are they putting the "bat" up?

[CMT]

8. it is good news

Dean is still coming on, but it is far from over. Kerry is still in the thick of things and Lieberman may be dropping like a rock in early primary states but is still garnering good national numbers.

[Larkspur]

10. What's important in these polls is the TREND, not necessarily the numbers

While I'm estatic that Dean is in the lead nationaly, he's not in it by much. What I look for in polls are trends. Dean has been rising steadily while the other, save Clark, have been stagnating of declining. Dean's campaign is very aggressive and organized about getting his message out and it is paying off and like Andrew Jackson, Dean has forge a fiercely loyal band of followers who will defend him. This is why I think that Clark has been postponing announcing whether or not he is running for President. Dean's campaign is a very organized and aggressive juggernaut and if Clark is the type that wants to win, instead of just parading around for attention, Dean's campaign is formidable enough to abort Clark's bid for the presidency. It's mid-September and Clark still has not announced his Prez intentions. How much longer will he wait?

[LiberalTexan]

12. YEEHAW!

Now let's not get comfortable there, Howard.

Hubby and I are marching in the Pride Parade in Dallas next weekend. My sign will say "I dream of DEAN-ie". LOL Anyone want to join us? We may be the largest group of straight people in the parade. :)

I love a parade!

[Eloriel]

14. That's great!

Wish I could join you!

Have fun.

Eloriel

[burr]

15. likely voters = primary voters, Democratic voters = election voters IMHO.

The most striking things for me was to see Clark in the same tier as the bottom 6 candidates and to have 0% with no opinion. Even though the margin of error wasn't included, they are usually around 5% for national polls and 3-4% for the statewide polls.

On the other hand I have seen polls showing Clark as high as 10%, within this margin of error. I have a feeling he will have trouble pulling support away from other candidates. The only way for anyone to pickup more support at this point is to reduce the support of the other candidates, and for other candidates to begin dropping out.

Another reason why a tenth candidate isn't what I consider to be super news!

[DoveTurnedHawk]

17. We'll See

I think we'll see a big surge for Clark starting next week, if he announces on Wednesday. I can't wait to see the post-Clark-entry polls.

DTH

[otohara]

19. Bob Graham Is Such A Sweetie

and although I'm a Dean fan, I would support anyone of them (except Lieberman) - Graham is a lovely man, I wish he were my dad, or grand father. It too bad he's not doing so well in the polls

[opihimoimoi]

20. Better the Doctor than the Fraudulent Failed Bush.

How symbolic, the Healer against the Destroyer