STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 13 January

[ozymandius]

Thursday January 13, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 7 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 33 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 87 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1148
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 12, 2005

Dow... 10,617.78 +61.56 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq... 2,092.53 +12.91 (+0.62%)
S&P 500... 1,187.70 +4.71 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% -0.01 (-0.19%)
Gold future... 426.60 +4.20 (+0.98%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UL_Approved]

1. Why is the stock market climbing?

Consumer spending is still in the tank. Why are we seeing a rise in the market, and when will it come crashing down again?

[ozymandius]

2. I believe we're looking at a little cycle.

Short trading will boost averages. Then they will fall, then rise again. I believe that much of what we see is people making a quick buck by pumping the market with liquidity then selling their shares when a stock reaches a certain value. This makes short traders a tidy little profit.

I dislike short trading as an habitual practice because it artificially boosts stocks' value and tends to abberate long-term investment value. Being as things are, we can expect more of this to happen over the long haul.

By the way - crashes always emerge out of the blue. There is no such thing as a "reasonable" crash. Because of the unpredictable nature of a crash, there's not an awful lot anyone can do to prevent it once it starts.

[UL_Approved]

5. I guess I'm referring to the Quarterly bust that accompanies Bush economic

It seems like the stock market is becoming inflated on a regular basis, and that it gets debunked and resets each quarter once some real accounting happens. This trend stopped after Q4, 2004. I'm just wondering when the next reset will occur.

[spotbird]

31. DESCENT INTO THE DEPTHS (1929):

The Great Depression Crash Of '29

Although earnings were at boom levels, by August, 1929, the market price of speculative leaders ranged from 20 to 30 times earnings, with some even above that. When questioned how high the market could go, "experts" would state that there was no limit. The market was merely discounting the future economic expansion which was sure to come. This was a "New Era" in economics. An "unlimited" supply of purchasing power was available to the American public. Government, financial and business leaders would never allow any substantial decline. UP was the only way to go.

skip

At the news, speculators started selling out and selling short. The market was honeycombed by "stop loss" orders designed to protect the profits of the last three months. These were reached in minutes and a vast flood of selling was thrown on the market "at the market" only to find few buyers at anywhere near previous prices. Finally, a flood of new buying poured in to take advantage of the low "bargain" prices and, with the help of "covering" by the shorts, provided a slight recovery in the last ten minutes. However, industrials were down over $10 (about 3%) for the day - all in the last hectic hour.

skip

The stock market - which previously appeared to ignore outside influences in its headlong climb - was now reacting nervously to each scrap of news. The financial pages were filled with news of the record high earnings and general economic prosperity of the previous summer months, and hopes for recovery in auto sales and steel production. But news of the great increases in broker's loans each week brought periodic sharp drops to the market and general apprehension. A large short interest was reported.

skip

However, October 3 brought the report that broker's loans had risen sharply despite the stock market decline. It touched off a wave of selling. Shorts sold actively. Stop loss orders were quickly reached and a large volume of stock was thrown on the market at whatever it could bring. Even utilities were now caught in the sell-off.

more

http://www.futurecasts.com/Depression_descent-'29.html#Prelude%20to%20crash%20of%201929

Some things are different this time, the boom in the US ended 4+ years ago and declining exports weren't a trend until right before the sell off, but there are eerie similarities.

What I've been unable to learn is how one can protect themselves during times like those (these). Selling short would never work for me, I'm not a gambler.

[RawMaterials]

33. your link doesn't work n/m

[spotbird]

34. Sorry, here it is again.

All of it didn't copy last time.

http://www.futurecasts.com/Depression_descent-'29.html#Prelude%20to%20crash%20of%201929

on edit:

For some reason all of the address doesn't post, if you add #Prelude%20to%20crash%20of%201929 to the link above you'll hit the right page.


Do you have any ideas as to how I can post the whole link?

[DireStrike]

68. tinyurl.com/

http://tinyurl.com/

[ozone_man]

36. If you own stock, you're a gambler.

Seems to me like selling short is less of a gamble than going long at this point. Is there any more room to go up? If/when we stop deficit spending this market will be tanking. Now that the election is over, I think it should be headed down.

Where is that PE of 8-10 that signals the end of a bear market? I think we have quite a ways to go, unless the old rules don't apply anymore in this "new economy".

[ckramer]

41. Because the rich didn't know where to put their Bush taxcut money

And they think the stock market will go up forever.

[pokercat999]

67. I'm putting all my money in lottery futures....NT

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

ANOTHER BLOW-OUT TRADE DEFICIT

The overall tone for the markets was established early in the morning before stocks began trading when the Commerce Department announced the U.S. trade gap increased to $60.3 billion in November. The October trade deficit was adjusted higher to $56 billion and analysts were expecting a modest improvement for the November deficit to around $54 billion. As you can see, the trend is clearly in the wrong direction as we continue to buy more items from offshore, but have less and less to sell abroad as time goes by. Some of the mainstream media spin was saying that we hit another record deficit because the U.S. is growing faster than other countries around the globe. An early headline from Bloomberg said, “U.S. 10-year Treasury Note Declines as Trade Gap Signals Growth.” I would suggest that the early decline in U.S. Treasuries was a signal to move away from U.S. dollar denominated assets because of the pounding the dollar took today.

-cut-

The Dollar and Treasuries

The record trade deficit took its biggest toll on the dollar with the U.S. Dollar Index falling to 82.20, and today was the biggest decline versus the euro in the last three weeks. The euro added 1.1% to 1.327, the yen gained nearly 1% to 0.981 and the big gainer in the currency pits today was the Canadian dollar with a 1.5% advance to 0.833. The Bloomberg article I mentioned earlier said, “Trade Gap Signals Growth,” but the columnist went on to say that the reported trade deficit “is raising concerns that a weaker U.S. currency may discourage international investors from buying longer-maturity treasuries.” I would have to agree with that comment. Early this morning treasuries opened lower and continued to move lower, but it didn’t last for very long. Right after the initial decline, treasuries were bought right back up to breakeven from yesterday’s close.

-cut-

Stocks and Commodities

The stock markets opened slightly higher this morning, but immediately sold off with the Dow Industrials falling to a low of 10,500 by mid-morning, then back to breakeven by lunch time. The broad stock indices spent the balance of the day moving sideways until the last half-hour when the buyers stepped up to the plate to push stock prices higher for the close. At the end of the session the DJIA added 61 points to 10,617, the NASDAQ Composite gained 12 points to 2,092, and the S&P 500 moved four points higher to close at 1,187. Since the beginning of the year technology stocks have been under the most pressure and yesterday’s report from Intel was the big hope for tech stocks today.

-cut-

Energy prices moved higher right out of the gate, but turned negative with some really bad spin about prices moving lower because of an unexpected build in distillate inventories. The first Bloomberg headline read, “Crude Oil Rises as U.S. Inventories Decline More-Than-Expected.” Then they started backpedaling and came out with the headline, “Crude Oil Falls After Report of Surging U.S. Fuel Inventories.” After that headline came out crude, heating oil and gasoline prices all started to move higher again. It looks like the build in distillate inventory went into the wrong place with unleaded gasoline adding a million barrels to inventory and heating oil inventories FALLING by 513,000 barrels. They really needed the heating oil because temperatures in the Northeast are expected to drop with a new cold front on the way. By the end of the day crude oil moved higher by 72 cents to $46.40 a barrel, heating oil moved fractionally higher to $1.30 and unleaded gas added a penny to close at $1.22 a gallon. From a technical standpoint today’s close for crude oil was significant by closing above its 50-day moving average. The last time crude closed above the 50-DMA was back on November 5th following the high of $55.79 on October 27th. Today’s close could be signaling the end of the consolidation from the highs reached back in October. The supply disruptions in Iraq are certainly adding to supply problems and with the elections in Iraq just two weeks from now the tensions will most likely increase.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Thank you all for your chorus of well-wishes yesterday. It is wonderful to be back doing something I love with great people. The admins have yet to give me a computer, phone, business cards and a chair. But all in due time. I will be on my feet a good bit.

Once I have all of the accouterments mentioned above, I would enjoy spending my occasional lunch break here at the SMW thread.

Have a wonderful day at the Casino!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

13. Hi Ozy!

I'm glad that you first day at the museum made you happy and that you are around people that love the things in life that you do. It really is wonderful when you can use your talents and preferences in life to earn a living :D

Hope that they get a chair soon, your feet are going to be screaming - hope you have some comfy shoes!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.33 Change +0.19 (+0.23%)

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,16849-1437665,00.html

Plea by Snow as US deficit hits monthly record

JOHN SNOW, the US Treasury Secretary, last night renewed demands for Europe and Japan to boost growth to ease global economic imbalances after America’s trade gap surged to a monthly record of $60 billion (£32 billion) in November.

A slump in US exports, blamed on weak demand in key trading partners, combined with a sharp rise in America’s oil imports to trigger the surprise jump in the trade deficit. Wall Street analysts had expected it to decline to $54 billion.

The much worse than predicted figures sparked a renewed assault on the dollar on foreign exchanges, sending the US currency tumbling against the yen and the euro.

<snip>

Mr Snow blamed the latest jump in the trade deficit on the relative strength of US growth compared with a disappointing performance by the eurozone and Japan. He said: “We are growing faster than our trading partners and we are creating more disposable income than they are. We need Europe to be more of an engine of growth and we need Japan to be more of an engine of growth.”

The Treasury Secretary made clear that he would use next month’s London meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrial economies to step up pressure on the governments of Japan and the eurozone to act to bolster their performance.

...more...

(now we are reduced to "begging" and "threatening" by the SnowBlowJob Man :eyes: )

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100270/content.asp?menu=currencies&dia=1312005

HE CURRENCY REPORT

The DX opened lower at 82.97 and sold off as a ‘greater than expected’ Trade Deficit of $ 60.3 B caught a number of traders on the ‘wrong’ side of the market. Prices retraced to a morning Lo of 82.05 as ‘position adjustments’ occurred, before bouncing to 82.18 as we begin the afternoon session. Prices continued to trade at the lower range of the day as traders evaluated their positions and assessed today’s move. The DX ended the session at 82.18, down 89 tics. The close below the 9 day MA, changes the s/t trend to ‘negative’ as momentum indicators weaken. Unless the DX can remain above the 18 day MA of 81.96, look for further weakness. A lower open may find Support at 81.72 and 81.26, while an open above 82.51 should find Resistance at 82.97 and 83.76.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1105620389-9e32d306-23707

Forex - Dollar, euro steady ahead of US retail sales, Trichet speech; Stg down

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was steady after recovering some ground earlier in the day, as a small degree of consolidation set in after yesterday's falls in the wake of very disappointing data on the US trade deficit

Trade is slightly muted, however, awaiting US retail sales numbers this afternoon. Today's press conference from European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet following an expected decision to leave interest rates on hold could also attract some interest

The market consensus is for US retail sales to be firm, rising 0.6 pct after a 0.1 pct rise the previous month, boosted by strong vehicle sales. Excluding autos, sales are expected to rise more moderately at 0.4 pct, compared with a 0.5 pct increase previously

HSBC currency analyst Clyde Wardle said the key question is whether a strong number will support the dollar on the back of US economic strength, or whether it undermines it on the risk of an even bigger external deficit

"The risks would seem to be for further dollar weakness," he said

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Today's Reports:

Jan 13 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Dec
report -
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 0.4%
revised -

Jan 13 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Dec
report -
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 0.7%
revised -

Jan 13 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 01/07
report -
briefing.com 335K
market 340K
last report 364K
revised -

Jan 13 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Dec
report -
briefing.com 0.9%
market 1.1%
last report 0.1%
revised -

Jan 13 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Dec
report -
briefing.com 0.3%
market 0.4%
last report 0.5%
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

14. Dollar little moved by retail sales data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.3663548495-830958300&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The dollar failed to react much to in-line December retail sales data on Thursday, keeping a slight upward trend against the euro and the yen on short-covering after yesterday's drop. The greenback fell sharply Wednesday on news of a wider than expected November U.S. trade deficit. The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 102.54 yen and the euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.3230.

what they're not saying here is that a .3% increase for DEC sales is crappy :eyes:

on edit:

they address that here with the Treasuries:

10-year Treasury up on ex-autos retail, jobless claims

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.3676410301-830958369&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose Thursday on the back of data showing an anemic retail sales gain outside of the volatile auto category and a rise in the weekly number of jobless benefits applications. The 10-year note was up 7/32 at 100 10/32. Its yield ($TNX) fell to 4.21 percent vs. 4.24 percent at Wednesday's close. Short-term notes continue to lag the longer end of the maturity curve amid expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. The 2-year note was unchanged at 99 19/32, yielding 3.21 percent.

[UpInArms]

7. Reports coming in

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. NONSTORE RETAIL SALES UP 1.9%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. CLOTHING STORE SALES FALL 0.6%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. 2004 RETAIL SALES UP 8%, BEST SINCE 1999

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. RETAIL SALES UP 8.7% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE SALES UP 0.7%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. AUTO SALES UP 4.3%; GASOLINE SALES DOWN 2%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. EX-AUTO RETAIL SALES UP 0.3% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 10,000 TO 367,000

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. RETAIL SALES UP 1.2% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 12,750 TO 344,000

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS DOWN 219,000 TO 2.63 MLN

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE APRIL 2001

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. IMPORT PRICES DOWN 1.3%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. OIL IMPORT PRICES DOWN 11.5%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. NON-OIL IMPORT PRICES UP 0.5%

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. IMPORT PRICE DROP IS SHARPEST SINCE APR. 2003

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. retail sales jump 1.2% in Dec.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.3542011227-830957314&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Led by a big jump in autos, U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent in December, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Excluding the 4.3 percent rise in auto sales, retail sales gained 0.3 percent, as expected. The total sales figure was slightly ahead of expectations for an increase of 0.9 percent. It was the biggest gain in sales since September's 1.6 percent rise. Sales in December were up 8.7 percent from December 2003. Sales in 2004 increased 8 percent from 2003, the biggest annual increase since 1999.

[spotbird]

32. If auto sales were fantastic why are they giving them away?

There should be waiting lists, right?

[Maeve]

35. The auto companies now make most of their money not in car sales

But in financing those sales. If folks were paying cash, the automakers would be totally paddle-less.

[UpInArms]

9. U.S. Dec. import prices fall 1.3% on oil price drop

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.3545850463-830957356&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Led by a sharp drop in the price of oil, overall prices for imported goods fell at the sharpest rate in nearly two years in December, the Labor Department said Thursday. The prices of goods imported into the United States fell 1.3 percent in December, while non-oil import prices rose 0.5 percent in the month, the department said. Prices of imported oil plunged 11.5 percent after falling a revised 5.7 percent in the prior month. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had been expecting overall prices fall 0.4 percent in December.

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. weekly jobless claims up 10,000 to 367,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.3543353704-830957332&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first-time rose by 10,000 to 367,000 last week, the highest since September, the Labor Department said Thursday. The less-volatile, more-informative four-week moving average of new claims rose 12,750 to 344,000, the department said. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had expected first-time claims to fall to 339,000. The number of former workers collecting unemployment checks plunged 219,000 to 2.63 million in the week ending Jan. 1, the lowest level since April 2001.

[RawMaterials]

16. so spendings up and employment's down

that doesn't sound good to me, but I'm sure that the stock market will go up because December sales were relatively upbeat.

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 12,750 TO 344,000

the continuing claims i don't care about because it doesn't mean they found work just that there 6 months or whatever ran out.

[UpInArms]

11. Layoffs:

Cypress Semi: Q4 earns loss, reveals restructuring

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (CY) said it sees a fourth-quarter loss of 13 cents per share, higher than the 4 cents per share loss forecast by analysts polled by Thompson First Call and the company's own guidance of a loss of 9 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter is seen at $209 million, in line with the company's earlier guidance of $200 million to $220 million. Citing factories which it said were underutilized in the fourth quarter, the chipmaker unveiled a restructuring plan involving up to 250 job cuts. Charges for these actions are currently estimated to be approximately $15 million, including an estimated cash charge of $7 million, Cypress said.

J.P. Morgan to close Tampa card office
Reported move to affect 1,900 jobs

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B68CF8B99%2DE55A%2D442F%2DBF5A%2D3609A0394F73%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan Chase will close its Tampa credit-card operations by the end of the year, affecting 1,900 jobs as the nation's second-largest bank looks to cut costs following its Bank One acquisition, according to news reports.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan Chase will close its Tampa credit-card operations by the end of the year, affecting 1,900 jobs as the nation's second-largest bank looks to cut costs following its Bank One acquisition, according to news reports.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Labor News: Job Cuts Top 1 Million for Fourth Straight Year

http://www.ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1516&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

The number of job cuts by U.S. employers in 2004 topped the 1 million mark for the fourth straight year, the outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said Jan. 5.
The company said firms announced 109,045 job cuts in December, the second highest for 2004. The highest number of job cuts last year was 117,556 in January.

Challenger added that the December total marked the fourth straight month of more than 100,000 job cuts, a streak unmatched since January to April 2002.

Annual job cuts, Challenger said, are well above the levels reached before the 2001 recession. Between 1993 and 2000, the annual job cuts averaged 556,190, Challenger said.

The telecommunications industry was the biggest job cutter for the third time in the last four years, with 98,734 reductions in 2004. The financial sector was the second largest job cutter last year, with 97,945 positions eliminated. The government/nonprofit sector, which was the top job cutter in 2003 with 177,215 cuts, had 92,945 cuts last year to finish third, Challenger said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Local Glass Plant Workers Given Layoff Notice

2 Other Glass Companies Close Their Doors

http://www.wpxi.com/employment/4078172/detail.html

MONACA, Pa. -- A layoff is not the news anyone wants to hear from their boss. But, 250 workers at a Beaver County glass plant were told they will soon be out of a job.

The Anchor Hocking Company in Monaca blames the job cuts on a restructuring plan that will consolidate some operations.

The company advised its employees of the situation Wednesday. Leaders plan to discuss it with union representatives immediately.

<snip>

In December, Anchor Glass shut down its Fayette County plant, leaving 300 employees without a job.

And in November, Glenshaw Glass Company in Shaler Township closed its Allegheny plant, impacting 300 workers.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

12. Fines and Charges:

Polaris to pay nearly $1M for failure to report defects

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.3436616319-830956585&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Polaris Industries Inc. (PII) agreed to pay nearly $1 million to settle allegations it belatedly reported defects and hazards on some of its all-terrain vehicles. The defects were linked to dozens of accidents and at least 25 injuries from December 1998 to February 2001, including burns, torn muscles, scrapes and bruises, the Consumer Product Safety Commission said. Two separate CPSC investigations found that Polaris, based in Medina, Minn., allegedly made engineering changes to certain ATV models after receiving injury and accident reports, but before informing the government of any problems, as federal law requires. The commission said that while Polaris agreed to pay a $950,000 civil penalty, the company denied allegations it violated the law. Polaris spokeswoman Marlys Knutson said the company would comment Thursday, the Associated Press reported.

[UpInArms]

27. Georgia insurance commissioner suspends First Command

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.4248964931-830962372&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- Broker-dealer First Command Financial Planning, which in December settled with federal regulators for selling expensive "contractual plans" to U.S. military personnel, had its license suspended Wednesday by Georgia insurance commissioner John Oxendine for a period of 90 days, with a probationary period of one year to follow. "I want to send a message that we won't tolerate any misconduct in financial dealings with our nation's soldiers," Oxendine said. "As a follow- up to the actions taken by the NASD, First Command will have to cease all insurance sales for 90 days, and will be closely watched in the ensuing probationary period."

[UpInArms]

37. U.S. Atty files charges vs Ahold unit vendors - report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.481038912-830964714&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Federal prosecutors have reportedly filed criminal charges against nine vendors accused of conspiring with U.S. Foodservice executives to inflate the company's earnings, according to a published report Thursday. The U.S. Attorney's Office of New York accused the nine of signing a false audit letter designed to overstate the money they owed to the Royal Ahold (AHO) (NL:33181) unit, the Associated Press reported. According to the report, Ahold said that in 2003 its earnings had been overstated by more than $1 billion due to fraud at U.S. Foodservice.

[UpInArms]

38. NASD panel expelsYankee Financial for alleged fraud

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B99347DCF-38FD-44BA-ABDD-9F9BB81F8C57%7D&

BOSTON (CBS.MW) - A National Association of Securities Dealers panel has expelled Yankee Financial Group and barred the firm's president from associating with any NASD-registered firm as a principal or in any supervisory role for engaging in "fraudulent, high-pressure, boiler-room operations," the NASD said. The hearing panel ordered the Melville, N.Y., firm and President Richard Kresge to pay 10 customers more than $3.8 million in restitution, plus interest and costs for the alleged wrong doing.

[54anickel]

15. Taking people at their 'Word' Value

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=39493

snip>

Thus, rather than taking people at “word value” it is worthwhile to pay attention to the choice of words used by the community, and the words that are suppressed.

1. Social Security. The issue of Social Security, and its proposed privatization has garnered a lot of press lately. Mr. Greenspan and the politicians portray a looming sense of insecurity regarding the solvency of Social Security. However, the Social Security Administration trustees indicate that under their “intermediate” assumptions the combined (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become exhausted in 2042. For the 75-year projection period, the actuarial deficit is 1.89 percent of taxable payroll, 0.03 percentage point smaller than in last year’s report. So, when Alan Greenspan said that the country will face "abrupt and painful" choices if Congress does not move quickly to trim the Social Security and Medicare benefits that have been promised to the baby boom generation, he does not mention the above SSA numbers or allude to the fact that a 1.89% increase in payroll taxes ensures the solvency through the projection period with the current benefits. President Bush, during a Press Conference on December 20 said, “ In 2040, it will require two workers per employee to meet the promises. And when the system was set up and designed, I think it was, like, 15 or more workers per employee. That is a problem. The system goes into the red. In other words, there's more money going out than coming in, in 2018.” He chose not to mention that during 2003 total benefits paid were $471 billion while Income was $632 billion, and assets held in special issue U.S. Treasury securities grew to $1.5 trillion. Curiously enough the “intermediate” assumptions of the SSA trustees include a productivity growth rate of 1.6% and a CPI increase of 2.8%. From a macro perspective it is difficult to figure out how to justify the S&P 500’s current P/E ratio that’s greater than 16 based on these assumptions! If Greenspan has his way, we would be using the new chain-weighted CPI that gives lower inflation readings instead of relying on the Consumer Price Index. A couple of extra words, and inflation is reduced!

2. The Ownership Society. Making America an “ownership” society is currently a key issue on the economic and political agenda. Wall Street is trying to get policy makers to enact legislation to allow workers to have a “personal savings account.” The President, in a recent press conference said of the benefits of the personal savings account was that it “encourages an ownership society.” He also added that “the younger worker would gain a rate of return, which would be more substantial than the rate of return of the money now being earned in the Social Security trust.” Note that the fact that this comes at an increased risk to Security is consciously omitted, perpetuating the myth that investing in the market is a sure-fire way to wealth.

3. The US homeownership rate reached a record 69.2 percent in the second quarter of 2004, according to the Administration, which touts it, as more evidence of the “ownership” society. However it does not mention that according to the Federal Reserve’s Statistical Release, total Consumer debt in October 2004 exceeded $2 trillion dollars, and Household financial obligations as a percentage of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted, stood at 15.83% at end of Q3. Further the trend in the Financial Obligations Ratio is depicted below.

Compared to historical numbers the FOR is fairly high and was last seen at these levels during the 1987-1991 period. What makes it more challenging this time is the extent of the ARMs in a period of rising interest rates and an uncertain employment outlook. CPI was reported at 3.9% for the three months ending November 2004, while earnings growth for production and supervisory workers was in the 2.4% to 2.5% range, resulting in a decline in real earnings. Clearly a rise in interest rates not only increases the interest payments on the mortgages but also increases the risk of lowering property values but not the loan amounts. Which brings us back to the meaning of the word “ownership.” Once upon a time ownership meant possessing an entity without anyone else having claims to it. Clearly ‘owning’ a home with an outstanding mortgage nullifies this archaic view of ownership.

more...

[54anickel]

17. Subprime lending a worry for Fed exec

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/2005-01-12-gramlich_x.htm

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich expressed concern Wednesday about some lending practices in the subprime mortgage market and said the central bank was closely monitoring the overall housing sector for signs of price speculation.

snip>

Subprime lenders offer higher-interest loans to borrowers with poor credit ratings who may not qualify for prime financing. Most subprime loans are resold on the secondary market.

"The subprime incidence of mortgage brokers without a lot at stake in the game is getting pretty high," Gramlich said.

While initially stating that that portion of the subprime industry was veering close to a breakdown, he later called that phrasing too strong. But pointing to the higher delinquency rates in the subprime market and the fact many subprime borrowers are highly leveraged, he said it might be time to look with a little more jaundiced eye at some practices.

snip>

"We are always looking for signs that some relative prices are out of line," Gramlich said. "It's certainly possible it's a bubble, but it's also possible, for various reasons, the cost of housing has shifted."

more...

[UpInArms]

30. GMAC eyes separate mortgage operation

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.4252982755-830962393&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- General Motors' (GM) General Motors Acceptance Corp. said Thursday that it is considering folding its residential mortgage businesses into a holding company that would have its own credit rating. The proposed entity, Residential Capital Corp., would include GMAC Mortgage Corp. and Residential Funding Corp. The restructuring, which needs executive approval still, would occur this year, the company said.

[RawMaterials]

18. I see a bad moon a-rising (mugambo)

Richard Daughty
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru
Archives
January 13, 2005

- Foreign central banks poured another whopping $8.4 billion into their custodial holdings at the Federal Reserve last week, taking us to a new, all-time, hard-to-believe record of $1.344 trillion, as they furiously try and keep this ridiculous and bankrupt economic system going.

snip...

But looking at the end of the boom, the savvy dudes at DailyReckoning.com write "Credit binges do not typically end in inflation. Debt loads are not usually lightened so easily. People need dollars to pay the interest on loans, and to pay back the principle. What usually happens at the end of a credit boom is that money becomes harder and harder to get. Debtors are stretched; they can no longer increase spending. Businesses have surplus capacity already; they cannot profitably add factories and workers. Capital spending slows down. Consumer spending slows too. Money becomes scarce."

snip..

"The number of payday loan stores nationwide has more than doubled since 2000 to more 22,000 (in 2003), and revenues have consistently grown by double digits since the 2000 recession. Are people taking payday loans with sometimes a 276% annual interest rate (EZCorp in Indiana) because their savings are in order? Obviouslybusiness is booming at payday loan/pawn companies because the so called 'recovery' has left so many Americans behind."

And this is exactly what you would expect from an inflationary monetary policy! When you create so damn much credit and money, for so long a time, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. After awhile, the social unrest gets extreme, and the idiots in Congress and the Federal Reserve all decide that what this country needs, and I mean really, really needs, is more spending and more creation of money and credit, making it all worse and worse! And then they stand around, asking each other "What in the hell is The Mogambo so mad about?"

snip...

Hahahahaha! This is the level of thinking of the morons at the Fed! Hahahaha! Get a load of this economic theory: Because you had the wherewithal to borrow money to drive asset prices up, then the resultant higher equity in those assets thus give you the wherewithal to borrow MORE money, to go farther into debt! Gaahhhhh! My eyes are bugging out! This is advice from competent economists? This is how wealth is created? Does this sound like good advice to YOU?

Also commenting on the same FOMC minutes, Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital writes "Among the concerns expressed by members were interest rates being too low to contain inflation, price pressures threatening growth, excessive speculation resulting from low interest rates, growing federal budget deficits, the expanding current account deficit, and declining foreign demand for dollars. Let me be the first to welcome the Fed members to a little place I like to call 'reality.' "

snip..

- John Mauldin, who writes the highly informative FrontLineThoughts.com newsletter, writes, "When the next recession comes in 2006 or 2007, the stock market will drop. Average drops during a recession are 43%. The Baby Boomer generation will realize that the stock market is not going to bail out their retirement hopes. They will stop spending and start saving with a vengeance. Problem solved, only it creates more problems. The world will not like it when the American consumer retrenches." No truer words were ever spoken! If Americans don't buy, then China stops selling, and then China must stop exporting, and then China doesn't make any money, and then China has no dollars to buy US debt, which happens to come at the same time when America's government is desperate for money, and is trying to issue tons and tons more debt. But nobody is buying! So the Fed buys it! And the new money that the Fed creates out of thin air to buy the debt seeps into the world's economy, and all that money is chasing the same amount of goods, which is actually falling, and that REALLY causes inflation, and the inflation causes the Mogambo to run into his spiffy concrete bunker to lock the door and hide in the corner, whimpering like the little wuss I am.

snip..

- Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley has noted that "Annual inflation in U.S. home prices is now running at a 25-year high of 8.8 percent, with 15 states experiencing double-digit increases in residential property values between mid-2003 and mid-2004." And although he is too polite to say so, so are property taxes. And for those hapless people who listened to Alan Greenspan when he encouraged them to buy overpriced houses with adjustable mortgages at the lowest interest rates he could manufacture with his profound monetary excesses, the rise in rates is giving those people an education that they will never forget, if they are capable of learning lessons, and I have my doubts about that.

snip..
- "Inflation Destroys the Fabric of Society" is an essay by George Crispin on the LewRockwell.com. site. He writes "18 years ago the Consumer Price Index was 109.6. Today it has reached 191. What you could buy for a dollar 18 years ago would take $1.74 today." This comes out to 3.1% inflation, which is lower than the current rate of inflation as reported as 3.5%. He goes on to reveal the horror of it; "As the new money works its way through the economy, prices rise. The first receivers of the new money gain at the expense of the later receivers. Inflation, then, confers no general, social benefit; instead it redistributes the wealth in favor of first comers. Those stuck with the loss include fixed income groups, ministers, teachers, people on salaries, those on fixed money contracts made before the price rise, life insurance beneficiaries, retirees, landlords with long term leases, bond holders and other creditors, and those holding cash." In short, all of us who are not first in line to get, and use, the money take the loss. And when you look out of the window, you realize with a start that this Crispin dude knows exactly what he is talking about.

Ugh.

*** The Mogambo Sez: A Creedence Clearwater Revival song keeps going through my head, and it goes, "I see a bad moon a-rising.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty011305.html

[bain_sidhe]

63. Mogambo!

Love that man. Or, at least, his writing. ;)

**edit: ACK! Spelled his name wrong!**

[UpInArms]

64. Hi bain_sidhe!

glad you dropped in!

:hi:

Mogambo's rants are definitely great reading!

(now I spulled his name wrong :eyes: )

[bain_sidhe]

69. Howdy!

glad you dropped in!

Oh, I'm always lurking. But I can't add much, being an economic illiterate. I know just enough to be very, very afraid!

He's pretty hard on the liberals in this one, though. Although, ::whisper:: he makes a couple of good points, albeit using the sharp pointy stick, about taxpayers being the "GGF" - Government General Fund. Well, yes, we are. Of course, I have a different view of the situation than he does. As a member of the GGF, I don't mind paying the money to ourselves, so that nobody has to live in poverty when they retire. The problem is, a better acronym these days would be "BCGF" = Bush Crony General Fund.

**edit: punctuation is very important! Consider the following:

Woman: Without her, man is nothing.
Woman, without her man, is nothing.

[54anickel]

19. U.S. Trade Deficit Rises to New High; More Risk to Dollar

Some priceless delusional comments by * and Snowjob in this one.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/13/business/13trade.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1105625902-3iarWjWjEtHsdlk6KKUpMA


SNIP>

The figures, released by the Commerce Department, showed that the deficit is on track to exceed $600 billion for 2004, up from $496.5 billion in 2003. With November's report, it has already reached $561 billion.

Economists said that the trade deficit data was distressing and that several things would have to change if the trend were to be reversed. First, they said that Americans would have to save more and United States businesses must sell more goods and services overseas. In addition, they said that currency exchange rates needed to be adjusted, pointing in particular to China, whose currency, the yuan, is now linked to the dollar.

But persuading trade partners to adjust their policies to ease the American imbalance will be difficult at best, as many of these same countries are underwriting American debt by purchasing Treasury obligations.

The net debt position of the United States now stands at $2.4 trillion, costing Americans roughly $333 a person a year in interest.

"A trade deficit of this magnitude is not good," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at the National City Corporation. "The problem is how do you tell these countries like China to change when they are funding the U.S. government. We'd like the Chinese to change their currency rate and at the same time continue to lend to us."

snip>

The Bush administration took a different view, maintaining that the deficit showed the strength of the United States economy, not its weakness, as many economists contended.

more...

[MARALE]

20. I don't get it

Yesterday we had bad news and all the big players came out to spin the news and the stock went way down then up. Today there is pretty good news out there and the stock has gone down. I am trying to learn about the market because it is interesting, but once I think I can predict it going up or down, it does the opposite. Am I missing something today?

[RawMaterials]

25. todays data is conflicting not really good news

plus there is just to much bad underlining it all.
you have this coming from some http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ahk8ypNZaCZc&refer=news_index

``My biggest concern for the labor market is that corporations continue to be risk averse,'' said Behravesh. Companies are still cautious about ``hiring additional workers and continue to try to squeeze productivity growth out of their existing workforce.''


then this ...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aFx0.GPMe0cI&refer=news_index

``The economy has growing strength, underlying strength,'' Greg Smith, executive vice president at Ford, the second-biggest automaker in the U.S., said in an interview this week. ``We are seeing positive momentum in the economy, and we hope to have a strong year in the industry.''

``The consumer should continue to hang in there,'' he said. ``I'm not about to bet against the American consumer.''


IMHO if company's don't start spending the whole economy can go down real fast. even faster if the rest of the world stops supporting our spending habits.

[54anickel]

21. Afraid I have to run Marketeers

Bad news. Took the F-i-L to the hospital last night. He was doc's first stop this AM, (doc came in during my wake-up call from Dad). I figured that might not be a good sign - it wasn't. His cancer has flared up with a vengence, not a lot of options left at this point.

Gotta head up there now to be with Dad as he deals with the news.

[UpInArms]

22. I am so sorry 54anickel

hang in there knowing that you are really cared for :hug:

[RawMaterials]

26. sorry to here about it, give your dad our best wishes

help him in his time of need.

[UpInArms]

23. 9:59 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,590.44 -27.34 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,087.32 -5.21 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,185.57 -2.13 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 154,259,000
Nasdaq Volume 285,424,000

09:40 ET Dow -23, Nasdaq -3, S&P -1.64
Major indices open mixed but are currently trading lower as market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the slew of earnings reports out next week... In economic news, December retail sales rose 1.2%, slightly better than the 1.1% economists had expected, but were boosted by strength in auto sales... Excluding the 4.3% rise in autos, retail sales gained a respectable 0.3%, roughly in line with forecasts of +0.4%, suggesting a decent holiday sales period and further reflecting a 3% annual rate in consumer spending... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

09:15 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0.

09:00 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Still shaping up to be a modestly lower open for the cash market... Apple Computer (AAPL) has been in focus after it handily beat analysts' Q1 expectations and issued upside Q2 guidance, prompting Prudential and Bank of America to upgrade the stock... Other notable ratings changes include downgrades on Verizon (VZ) from CSFB and Robert W. Baird and an upgrade on BellSouth (BLS) from Smith Barney while Piper Jaffray has assumed coverage of Cisco Systems (CSCO) with an Outperform

08:33 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market holds relatively steady following retail sales figures, still indicating a slightly lower open for the indices... Dec retail sales came in at +1.2%(consensus +1.1%) and retail sales ex-auto came in at +0.3% (consensus +0.4%), basically matching expectations, while initial claims came in at 367K, a bit worse than forecasts of 340K

08:00 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures market suggesting a modestly flat to mixed open for the cash market... Contributing to the lackluster action has been another 1% surge in crude oil prices ($46.83/bbl +$0.46) due to production outages as the market waits to digest a batch of economic data... At 8:30, investors will get a read on the closely watched Dec retail sales (consensus +1.1%) and ex-auto figures (consensus +0.4%), weekly jobless claims (consensus 340K) and the Labor Dept's Dec export / import prices

[UpInArms]

24. Nikko to open China fund, report says

Will give foreigners direct access to China's stock market

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8C5A41B7%2D11F3%2D4EE4%2D8CA2%2DAA51D9D4AD7C%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (CBS.MW) - The fund management arm of a major Japanese brokerage firm is getting ready to offer the first mutual fund that will give foreigners direct access to China's domestic stock market, according to a published report.

Nikko Asset Management, Nikko Cordial Corp.'s fund management unit, plans to register a $200 million fund with Japanese regulators Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the situation. The fund plans to start investing in China's stock market by March, the newspaper said.

Nikko is hoping to offer the fund to investors in the U.S. and other nations later this year. At first, it will be sold in yen and be limited to Japanese investors, the Journal reported. Mainland China's stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen have more than 1,300 companies with a market capitalization of almost $500 billion, the newspaper said.

...very short newsblurb...

[UpInArms]

39. 11:52 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,566.78 -51.00 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,083.51 -9.02 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,183.60 -4.10 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 572,776,000
Nasdaq Volume 877,659,000

11:30 ET Dow -30, Nasdaq -4, S&P -1.66
Stocks retrace some of their losses but the market still trades in negative territory as market internals remain mixed... Advancers on the NYSE hold a slim 16 to 14 edge over decliners while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 16 to 11 margin, but down volumes on both the Big Board and the Composite hold a modest edge over up volumes... On the Dow, VZ (-2.1%), PFE (-1.7%), PG (-1.7%), HD (-1.6%) and SBC (-1.5%) have led the list of laggards while HPQ (+0.8%), MO (+0.7%), JPM (+0.7%) and CAT (+0.6%) have been just four of the 8 components catching a bid... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1637/1433. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1199/1605.

11:00 ET Dow -42, Nasdaq -7, S&P -2.98
Selling intensifies, pushing the indices to their lows of the morning, as oil prices surge to fresh session highs... Meanwhile, new weekly unemployment claims rose 10K to 367K, higher than the 340K forecasted by economists and posting the biggest increase since September... But while a second straight week of higher than trend jobless benefits was realized, strong seasonal trends have again skewed the data, cautioning investors to digest the figures with a grain of salt as the labor market still remains relatively strong... More importantly, the level of those drawing benefits fell in the week of Dec 31, to 2.63 mln from 2.84 mln, marking a sizable decline... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1600/1380. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1158/1549.

10:30 ET Dow -29, Nasdaq -4, S&P -1.97
Market remains on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Showing little follow through has been semiconductor (-0.5%) and biotech (-0.8%), both of which gained more than 1.0% yesterday, while telecom services, transportation and financial have extended losses... Health care, retail and consumer discretionary have also traded lower... Computer hardware (+1.6%) has climbed higher on the strength of AAPL while homebuilding has taken advantage of the lower bond yields... Also showing strength have been disk drive, managed health, utility and energy, with the latter gaining ground as crude oil hovers near $47/bbl... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1488/1356. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1069/1555.

[UpInArms]

40. Philly Fed index revised lower in Dec.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.5092608912-830965726&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region was not quite as strong in December as previously reported. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank released annual revisions to its closely followed monthly index for 2004 to reflect updated seasonal adjustment factors. December's index was revised lower to 25.4 from 29.6. The revisions were generally higher in the spring and summer months and lower in the fall and winter months. "The pattern of change in most series was not significantly affected," the Philly Fed said. Readings bove zero indicate expansion. January data will be released next week.

How con-veeen-i-ent!

That one MOVED the markets and now they decide - ooopsie! It's a DO OVER!

[UpInArms]

42. here's how that report looked on 12/16/04

Dec 16 12:00 PM
Philadelphia Fed Dec
report 29.6
briefing.com 19.0
market 20.5
last report 20.7
revised -

Here's the revised version:

Jan 13 12:00 PM
Philadelphia Fed Dec
report 25.4
briefing.com 19.0
market 20.5
last report 20.7
revised -

When the truth would serve just as well - it did increase - why lie?

[UpInArms]

43. 1:15 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,580.31 -37.47 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,088.42 -4.11 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,185.65 -2.05 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 771,060,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,138,238,000

1:00PM: Little changed in the last half hour as equities hold steady at lower levels... Trading higher, however, have been treasuries which remain near session highs after digesting this morning's batch of economic data, in particular, the arguably disappointing weekly claims figures... Despite the seasonal factors behind the data, a bullish rally in bonds began following the Labor Dept's claims release, pushing treasuries higher and taking almost every interest-rate sensitive stock along for the ride, such as homebuilding, REITs and utility...

Banks (-0.3%), however, have been absent for the most part, with investors maintaining a watchful eye on several leaders in the financial group that are expected to report quarterly results over the next couple of weeks... The 10-year note (+10/32) continues to yield around 4.19%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1643/1520, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1244/1690

12:30PM: Buyers remain a reluctant bunch as the major indices continue to languish near their lows... One area under pressure for the fourth consecutive session has been telecom services, following two more downgrades on Verizon Communications (VZ 37.21 -1.02)... This time around, as Goldman Sachs downgraded VZ to In-Line from Outperform yesterday, both CSFB and Robert W. Baird have lowered their ratings on the stock to Neutral from Outperform...

Areas of concern have included valuation, a more conservative view of VZ's traditional local phone business heading into 2005 and competition from wireless and cable...NYSE Adv/Dec 1600/1534, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1169/1726

[UpInArms]

44. Pie-Hole Alert: FU Cheney is now agressively selling SS privatization

and it sounds like he's making threats:

1:17pm 01/13/05 CHENEY: 'WE WILL FIND' BIPARTISAN SOCIAL SECURITY DEAL

"Will?" - in your dreams Asshole :grr:

[UpInArms]

45. FU Cheney confident Congress to reach Social Security deal

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38365.5602807523-830967567&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The White House is confident that a bipartisan solution to Social Security reform can be reached, said Vice President Dick Cheney. "After 70 years, Social Security remains a fundamental commitment of both our political parties. We will need that bipartisan commitment in the months ahead and I believe we will find it," Cheney said in a speech Thursday at Catholic University. "There are strong views on both sides of the aisle, and we should not expect this work to be easy," he said.

[SteveG]

46. bump(nt)

nt

[UpInArms]

47. 3:15 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,558.81 -58.97 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 2,086.01 -6.52 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,183.81 -3.89 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,138,211,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,619,212,000

3:00PM: Not much conviction on the part of buyers today as widespread weakness continues to pressure equities... Showing strength, however, has been the dollar, rebounding against both the euro (1.3202) and the yen (102.62) following yesterday's sell off... Earlier, the greenback was weaker against the yen, which traded close to a 5-week high after a rise in Japan's exports (Nov) eased worries that Japanese Authorities would intervene to hinder weakness in the dollar... The stronger greenback, however, has pushed gold futures ($425.10/oz) lower for the first time in three days... NYSE Adv/Dec 1901/1372, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1451/1583

2:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game as the major averages continue to fluctuate just under the flat line... Meanwhile, the $10 bln 10-year TIPS auction, occasionally a market moving event, has turned out to be a bit of a sleeper, awarding investors 1.725%, basically in line with estimates... But since foregone conclusions about foreign buying were averted, the bond market remains bullish on all fronts heading into the last half hour of trading, holding steady near session highs after digesting all of today's economic data and auction action...NYSE Adv/Dec 1871/1374, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1447/1565

2:00PM: Indices tick a bit higher but continue to sport broad-based losses, as buyers selectively pick up shares in a down market... While Alcoa (AA 29.57 +0.14) officially kicked earnings season on Monday, the flood of earnings reports are not expected to hit the wires until next week... However, two S&P constituents have been in focus today after reporting quarterly results...

[UpInArms]

48. have to say 82.51 is NOT STRONG!

the buck

Last trade 82.51 Change +0.37 (+0.45%)

Settle 82.14 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.23 Previous Close 82.14

High 82.52 Low 82.14

Last tick: 2005-01-13 14:45:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

what the hell are these freakin' bozos talking about????

120 is STRONG!

82.51 is crappola!

[UpInArms]

52. 3:36 EST and doing a belly flop

Dow 10,521.71 -96.07 (-0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,072.80 -19.73 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,179.14 -8.56 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,276,196,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,790,977,000

3:30PM: The broader averages hit a wall and plunge to new lows heading into the close of trading... Tomorrow, economic data will again be in the spotlight... At 8:30 the Labor Dept will release its Producer Price Index (consensus -0.2%) and core PPI (consensus +0.2%) while the Commerce Dept will release November Business Inventories (consensus +0.6%)... At 9:15 ET, investors should get an updated read on manufacturing when the Fed releases Industrial Production (consensus +0.5%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 78.9%) figures for the month of December...

With regards to earnings, S&P constituent BB&T Corp (BBT 40.31 -0.34) will be the only notable company out with Q4 results before the bell...NYSE Adv/Dec 1784/1500, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1384/1658

[MARALE]

49. 3:15 readings

DJIA 10,552.16 -65.62 -0.62%
Nasdaq 2,085.24 -7.29 -0.35%
S&P 500 1,183.17 -4.53 -0.38%

Doesn't look too good for the Dow.

[spotbird]

54. DJIA 3:45 PM, 10,486.82 -130.96

-1.23%

What's up with this?

[UpInArms]

55. it's trying to claw it way back up to 10,500

at 3:51

Dow 10,495.85 -121.93 (-1.15%)

[spotbird]

56. It will be a photo finish, 10,499.62 -118.16

3:53:04 PM
-1.11%

[spotbird]

57. Not looking good: 3:55PM 10,491.94 -125.84

-1.19%

[spotbird]

60. By God they've done it, above 10,500.

3:58:36 PM 10,503.83 -113.95
-1.07%

[UpInArms]

61. fun to watch it in action, huh spotbird?

isn't it amazing how the market just jams itself right back up to that big psychological 10,500?

:eyes: :tinfoilhat:

[spotbird]

62. Yep, the next big psychological will be 10,000.

Bet ya a dollar, better yet a Euro.

[UpInArms]

65. you're on!

[UpInArms]

58. here's the buzz

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B809281FC%2D1BF4%2D4BFE%2DBD1E%2DB8E0572ADB39%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stock losses accelerated late Thursday as a series of profit warnings increased investor concern about corporate profits despite a strong report and bullish outlook from Apple Computer.

"I think there's some question -- can these companies report better-than-expected numbers," said Robert Pavlik, portfolio manager at Oaktree Asset Management.

Putting a damper on sentiment Thursday were higher crude prices and a mixed batch of data on the state of the U.S. economy.

Blue chips faced added pressure as a result of two more downgrades for Verizon Communications and losses in Pfizer after the Food and Drug Administration warned the drugmaker that ads for its Celebrex and Bextra arthritis drugs are misleading.

<snip>

"I think the action we're seeing in the market is signaling a regime shift - a psychology shift," said Stephen Sachs, head of trading at Rydex Investments. The path of least resistance was up between October and December and it feels like that mentality has clearly changed."

...more...

[spotbird]

59. "market is signaling a regime shift - a psychology shift"

Could that shift be into reality? Has the Prozac run out?

[spotbird]

50. Quite a slide, is this the beginning?

Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA 1/13/2005
3:32:21 PM 10,505.23 -112.55 -1.06%

or will there be a rebound today?

[Tace]

51. Bottom Fell Out Of Stocks -- Dow Down 112 @ 3:30

Down 108 now.

[UpInArms]

53. 3:44 EST still sinking - now under 10,500 - down 125 points

Dow 10,492.01 -125.77 (-1.18%)
Nasdaq 2,068.27 -24.26 (-1.16%)
S&P 500 1,176.19 -11.51 (-0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,329,104,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,866,491,000

[UpInArms]

66. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,505.83 -111.95 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 2,070.56 -21.97 (-1.05%)
S&P 500 1,177.45 -10.25 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 42.36 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,509,873,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,124,110,000

Close: Stocks held rather tight ranges in negative territory most of the session, on the heels of higher oil prices and mixed economic data, but a late day drubbing, exacerbated by a GM warning, erased anything positive... The market suffered a material, and expeditious, sell-off in the final hour with relatively disappointing FY05 EPS guidance of $4.00-5.00 (Reuters Estimates consensus $4.91) from General Motors (GM 37.37 -1.02) and consternation over the market's inability to follow through on Wednesday's gains driving the selling interest...

Separately, it was reported by CNBC that the late slide also stemmed from disappointment in a Treasury Dept. ruling that companies won't be allowed to repurchase stock or pay dividends with repatriated foreign earnings... Whatever the precise cause was, the late sell-off was a reflection of the bearish bias that has permeated the market since the year began...

Also contributing to the market's overall weakness was a 3.5% surge in crude oil ($48.04/bbl +$1.67), fueled by supply disruptions, colder weather forecasts and further proof of OPEC production cuts, as the commodity broke through technical levels, hit a 6-week high and renewed fears of oil reaching $50/bbl before hitting $40/bbl... Meanwhile, December retail sales came in relatively in line with economists' expectations, suggesting a decent 2004 holiday shopping season, but weekly jobless claims rose for a second straight week, hitting 367K (consensus 340K), lifting treasuries and leaving investors more uncertain about the pace of economic growth...

[54anickel]

70. Bwahahahaha

Separately, it was reported by CNBC that the late slide also stemmed from disappointment in a Treasury Dept. ruling that companies won't be allowed to repurchase stock or pay dividends with repatriated foreign earnings... Whatever the precise cause was, the late sell-off was a reflection of the bearish bias that has permeated the market since the year began...

Someone stold their thunder!!! That's just sooooo rich. Today may just be the start of something big. Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings, but alas, I won't be able to watch - my day is booked.

The latest on the new rules from Bloomberg (updated 3 times so far)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ainPUquggAxA&refer=top_world_news

snip>

``A number of companies will view this in a negative light,'' said Greg Kelly, an analyst in Washington for Susquehanna Financial Group.

Until the Treasury Department issued the technical guidance today, companies had been ``fairly guarded'' about how they intended to comply with the new rules contained in the corporate tax bill that President George W. Bush signed into law in October, Kelly said. The law allows foreign profit to be repatriated at a reduced 5.25 percent tax rate over one year if the funds are reinvested in the U.S. to create jobs.

The notice by the Treasury Department said the repatriated funds can only be used for hiring and training, capital investment, research and development, debt retirement, pension investment, advertising, acquisitions in the U.S. and acquisition of patent rights.

It prohibits their use for share buy-backs, dividend payments, tax liabilities, executive compensation, portfolio investments and new debt instruments.

Tort Liabilities

The notice today doesn't specify whether repatriated funds can be used to settle tort liabilities. On Nov. 30, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, a Republican of Iowa, and Representative Fortney ``Pete'' Stark, a California Democrat, demanded that companies such as Merck & Co. Inc and Wyeth be prevented from settling product liability suits with the lower-taxed funds.

The notice says companies may use the funds to settle ``outstanding liabilities'' if such payments are vital to the company's ``financial stabilization'' and help retain jobs. Merck, which has $15 billion eligible for the tax holiday, may face as much as $18 billion in liability for Vioxx, the arthritis drug it pulled from the market in October because of reports it caused heart failure. Wyeth has $6.4 billion invested offshore, according to its financial statements, and may face as much as $25.6 billion in liability related to its Fen-Phen diet drug, which also allegedly caused heart problems.

`Good Use of Funds'

more...

[UpInArms]

71. thanks 54anickel!

that is priceless!

The notice by the Treasury Department said the repatriated funds can only be used for hiring and training, capital investment, research and development, debt retirement, pension investment, advertising, acquisitions in the U.S. and acquisition of patent rights.

It prohibits their use for share buy-backs, dividend payments, tax liabilities, executive compensation, portfolio investments and new debt instruments.

How in the world will those fatcats take the news?

Must stay tuned in for futher developments.

Maybe the job machine will start to go the other way - now that they have cut 4,000,000 jobs from the rolls in the past 4 years.