STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY SEPT 15....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday September 15, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 497
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 301
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 276 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 334 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 176
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 660
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 12, 2003

Dow 9,471.55 +11.79 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,855.03 +8.94 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,018.63 +2.21 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.27% -0.07 (-1.50%)
Gold future 376.90 -3.90 (-1.02%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[Shrek]

1. Techs may bounce today

Merrill Lynch has upgraded its rating on Applied Materials to Buy, according to this article.

Might cause a boost in the semiconductor sector.

[IMayBeWrongBut]

2. Good morning

Well, the hurricain has weakened from its peak strength but it's still a high cat 4 at 150mph. It looks like all hope of it missing the US is gone now. The question is exactly where is it going to hit.

So how is this going to affect the economy? If it stays at this strength it will probably be the most expensive natural disaster ever. Will the insurance companies selling assets to pay out on policies cause the market to fall dramaticaly?

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning. I see one area where it may have a profound effect.

The insurance industry is heavily invested in the real estate market. It is possible that prices could drop in that sector if insurance companies need a quick infusion of cash.

Insurance companies are heavily diversified investors and they like the security of bluechips (with some speculative interests in the NASDAQ). If the market plummets in the aftermath of hurricane payouts as insurers sell there too, expect insurance premiums to rise. The precedent has been set for this in the wake of the dot-com meltdown.

[ozymandius]

12. Isabel threatens U.S., insurers

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Hurricane Isabel poses a threat not only to residents and businesses along the East Coast but also to the nation's insurance industry, which could easily see billions of dollars in loss claims from the storm.

Andrew caused $15.5 billion in insured losses, equivalent to about $19.9 billion in insured losses in 2002 dollars. It caused a dozen insurers to go out of business and many big insurers to seek infusions of capital from their corporate parents in order to cover claims.

<..cut..>

"A Category 5 will cause substantial damage if it hits a populated area," said Andrew Colannino, assistant vice president with insurance rating firm AM Best. "But as far as individual companies mitigating their catastrophic risk, they have come a long way since Andrew."

story

[Don_G]

18. Even Worse

A Cat 3 would cause catastrophic damage in an area that rarely gets hurricanes; the building codes in the area are not up the standards of Florida homes.

Also, I read on a thread a week or so ago that FEMA is effectively broke and Dimbo may have to whine for Billions more.

:cry:

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"The 50% Principle"

The 50% principle was developed by the great Dow theorist E. George Schaefer. I feel that this is once again an appropriate time to take a look at this principle. Mr. Schaefer stated in his 1963 book How I Helped More Than 10,000 Investors To Profit In Stocks,

“In my endless search for clues to the stock market’s behavior, I have developed a concept which at times has proved extremely useful. This is my 50% Retracement Concept. While it is primarily helpful in reinforcing conclusions I have drawn from my other technical studies, it has given me great comfort and reassurance during the trying times when the market has fallen to low ground-—in 1949, in 1953, in 1957, in 1960 and in 1962.”

<..cut..>

“Whenever a primary movement of several years’ duration is corrected by a secondary movement in the opposite direction which fails to retrace more than 50% of the preceding move, then we may conclude that the original primary trend movement will resume in due time.”

Note that the rally off the October 2002 low has exceeded this level, which was bullish as long as the market held above 9,504.64. However, we have now moved back below this level. The market's inability to hold above 9,504.64 has now turned this principle bearish.

a bit technical - but some meaty stuff here...

[ozymandius]

5. The 'OK' [but fictional] Economy by Jim Puplava

"No Problem" Market Priced for Perfection

Currently the bulls are firmly in charge of the markets and John Q. has been drawn back into stocks. Public sentiment at all levels is decidedly bullish. It doesn’t matter what negative events transpire as the market just seems to shrug them off. Interest rates rise sharply—no problem. Violence in the Middle East and in Iraq—no problem. Aggressive earnings forecast and the return of shady to corporate accounting—no problem. The continuing saga of financial scandals is completely ignored as if they don’t exist. Not a week goes by without another scandal surfacing. This is a no problem stock market priced for perfection. On the surface it all looks perfect. In my view it is the set up for The Perfect Financial Storm. I believe—both fundamentally and technically—that the markets are being set up for distribution.

Here Puplava defines DISTRIBUTION: strong hand vs. weak hand

Defense Spending Pumped GDP
The financial community is forever preoccupied with the U.S. economy’s improving economic conditions. Everyone—from Wall Street seers to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to the White House—is bullish over the U.S. economy's growth prospects. The recession has ended and everyone expects economic conditions to get stronger going forward. According to official statistics, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.1% during the second quarter and current consensus believes that we’ll hit 5% growth rates by the Q4. (The U.S. is one of the few countries that annualizes its quarterly economic growth, a practice that distorts overall economic conditions.) While the revised economic numbers were widely heralded by the financial press that the long awaited recovery had finally arrived, very little was mentioned about the details of this economic miracle. Defense spending during Q2 rose sharply during the quarter due to the war. It accounted for 55% or $40.6 billion of $73.5 billion in GDP growth. In other words, defense spending due to the war accounted for 1.53% of the 3.1% GDP growth rate.

Government Fiscal Stimulus and Shortfalls
Another issue that the economic community and financial press looks to as a positive for the economy is the huge fiscal stimulus generated by government. The government’s budget deficit this year is estimated to come in at $455 billion. It may be more if rebuilding Iraq is thrown into the numbers. The current deficit numbers are going to eventually lead to a fiscal crisis. This crisis is going to come from entitlement programs that are growing annually at high single digits and show no sign of letting up as the economy remains weak and the population of the country ages. The problem with the known deficit numbers is that they don’t include future shortfalls associated with Medicare and Social Security. The combined annual shortfall of both these programs is huge and growing at an estimated rate of $1.5 trillion annually. That’s right—$1.5 trillion annually! If the government was required to fund 90% of its future pension and entitlement liabilities the same way companies are required to do, the annual budget deficit would be averaging $2 trillion a year. The future Social Security and Medicare liabilities are nowhere to be found in federal government budget reports.

Employment Numbers Always Revised
Now for the employment numbers which are much worse than what is widely reported. Here again what we see reported each month is another example of statistical fiction. The most common practice is that the actual job losses each month are underreported. The initial reports come in at a very low number. In the following month the job losses are revised. The trend has been much larger than what is reported initially. Job losses for May were revised upward from 17,000 to 70,000. The June numbers were revised upward from 30,000 to 72,000. In May the government reconciles their assumptions for their hypothetical job growth numbers. Each month the government assumes that 30,000-50,000 hypothetical jobs are created by small businesses. Once a year the government's assumed numbers must be reconciled with actual facts. This past May, 400,000 assumed jobs reported earlier in the employment numbers disappeared into statistical heaven. The jobs never existed.

more...

[JNelson6563]

6. wow!!

Good Morning Ozy and all--

Zowie what a commentary!!

On the surface it all looks perfect. In my view it is the set up for The Perfect Financial Storm.

....defense spending due to the war accounted for 1.53% of the 3.1% GDP growth rate.

The combined annual shortfall of both these programs is huge and growing at an estimated rate of $1.5 trillion annually. That’s right—$1.5 trillion annually! If the government was required to fund 90% of its future pension and entitlement liabilities the same way companies are required to do, the annual budget deficit would be averaging $2 trillion a year. The future Social Security and Medicare liabilities are nowhere to be found in federal government budget reports.

The initial reports come in at a very low number. In the following month the job losses are revised. (comment: always just in time to make the new low-balled but still pathetic numbers look better)

Well this is quite a summary of some important factors. I agree with every bit of it and have held these views for some time.

When reality catches up with the investing masses this will get ugly. I suspect it will be when there are no more tricks up the collective sleeve of those who have so well maintained this facade for so long. I suspect that the black bag of tricks they hold is close to empty even now--being as so many of their tools are of the one-time-only variety.

Julie

[Maeve]

7. Trying to convince Hubby to dis-invest

Our IRA fund has recovered to about where it was when we started, and I want out before it starts bleeding again. There are even scarier articles on the Financial Sense website...

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

But for today, the markets will lift all spirits and tech stocks will once again lead the way to a brighter tomorrow!:grouphug:

[ozymandius]

8. Here's the irony in my mind...

It almost makes me wish that Bush were president for a second term (biting my tongue!) so that he could bear this disgrace all by himself. After all - only Republicans are to blame.

In all the reports written concerning the GDP - roughly two of eight mentioned that defense spending accounted for the increase. This is a convenient fact to ignore when you are a financial soda pop salesman. My statement is a criticism of the piss-poor financial analysts who choose to ignore this hefty financial component. This is also venom sued at the people who created this mess: Republicans and culpable pseudo-Dems.

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. stocks set to rise; no Fed change seen - usual yammering

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to rise on Monday as investors anticipate no immediate change in interest rates, keeping the cost of borrowing down, and a continuation of broadly upbeat data charting the economy's recovery.

Stocks rose on Friday after a late afternoon rally but still posted losses for the week.

"Today's stocks seem to be on an upward track early on," said Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst with Alaron Trading Corp.

"The big thing that will happen this week is the Federal Reserve meeting," said Flynn. "The market will try to get a sense of the Fed's perception of the economic recovery and basically to see if they will change their bias."

story

[ElsewheresDaughter]

10. Spitzer officially files charges today "Mutual Funds"

[ozymandius]

13. Now, Mutual Funds Feel the Heat of Scandal

New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has launched a probe of the mutual fund industry, and regulators have sent subpoenas to the 80 largest firms. Spitzer wants to know if fund managers have been extending special treatment to high-rolling hedge funds at the expense of regular investors.

<..cut..>

While scandals and fraud have rocked the business world over the past year, they have largely centered on public companies and brokerage houses. Now, however, the mutual fund industry's solid reputation has taken a big hit at a time when 95 million people are trusting these financial families to manage $6.9 trillion of their hard-earned money.

<..cut..>

Spitzer said the deals under investigation allowed a hedge fund to reap huge profits by making illegal after-hours transactions and questionable market-timing moves. At the same time, the actions generated lucrative fees for the mutual funds, while reducing the value of individual investors' holdings, experts say.

The funds cited in Spitzer's complaint include:

[ozymandius]

11. Economy to drive stocks

Investors await reports on industrial production, inventories; Applied Materials boosts futures.

At 7:15 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a flat to higher start for the major indexes.

"It's been very quiet this morning. We have a lot of economic numbers out this week that people will be focusing on, and there is the Fed tomorrow," Steve Previs of Jefferies International told Reuters.

<..cut..>

Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve Open Market committee's meeting Tuesday. While economists expect that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate at 1 percent, they eagerly awaited any comments the central bank might make on the state of the economy. They also will look for indications of when the Fed might decide to tighten in future months.

Investors have been keeping a close eye on economic reports in recent months, hoping for stronger signs of a pick-up in business spending or hiring, but have been disappointed lately by mediocre data. Stocks have seen strong gains since the beginning of the year, riding high on investors' hopes for signs of an economic recovery in the second half of the year.

story

[ozymandius]

14. You folks have a great day.

I must be gone for the duration of the trading day. Work calls.

[JNelson6563]

15. At the open...

Here's a snapshot just 7 minutes into the day...

Dow 9,477.65 +6.10 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,860.47 +5.44 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,018.39 -0.25 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.298% +0.029

I'll be out doing my part to pump up the economy. I'll not even imagine what I'll find when I return.

Julie

[Maeve]

16. Just before 10 and recovering from a slip

Dow 9,468.53 -3.02 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,856.66 +1.63 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,017.59 -1.05 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282% +0.013

[Maeve]

17. 10:33 and slipping again

Dow 9,467.26 -4.29 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,856.10 +1.07 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,017.62 -1.01 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.310% +0.041

[Coventina]

19. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

Today's reading is FAMILY changing to TEMPTATION. I don't think "Family" has come up before. Here is some of the advice from Ching, "Don't succumb to impulses now. Seek nothing by force. Any attempts to further the well-being of others in a modest and humble way will be exceptionally successful."

I wonder if that last sentence could refer to the fiasco with the WTO talks? I don't pretend to know all the ins and outs of the issues there, but it seems to me that rich nations need to do more to help the poor nations.

Well, I haven't been doing a very good job with my predictions lately, but here goes.....I'm going to gues that it will be a quiet morning, with a big sucker's rally at the end.

[JNelson6563]

20. so far you are right

and an end-of-the-day sucker's rally is likely. Days like this tend to have such finishes lately, lots of last hour "miracles".

11:15 and here's how it's lookin':

Dow 9,447.19 -24.36 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,850.44 -4.59 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,014.92 -3.71 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302% +0.033

I did my part and went and spent lots of money. Maybe if I'd have bought semi-conductors instead of groceries, eh? ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

21. Market does seem to be doing poorly

Feeling a little peaked, as Grandma would say...but I agree that it is highly likely that a touch of a miracle will happen in the afternoon.

Dow 9,457.30 -14.25 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,852.16 -2.87 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,015.76 -2.87 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294% +0.025

[JNelson6563]

22. high-noon, not so high

Looking grim at high noon, dark clouds moving in.


Dow 9,454.14 -17.41 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,852.49 -2.54 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,015.41 -3.22 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.285% +0.016


Julie

[Maeve]

25. 1:42 and still bouncing around

Dow 9,462.77 -8.78 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,852.21 -2.82 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,015.91 -2.73 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.267% -0.002

[smallprint]

23. WTO reaction?

I don't usually post on this thread, but I have been following all the hoopla in Cancun, and it seems like it was a victory for the poor countries... which means it was a loss for the EU and USA.

Has anyone seen any reaction or commentary in the markets?

[Maeve]

24. I don't think the markets will react

They are much more interested in what Mr Greenspin will say this week. And you are correct in the win-lose assesment...

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/15/news/international/trade_wto.reut/index.htm
Rich vs poor at world trade talks
Critics blame wealthy nations for the collapse of talks but developing countries gain clout.
September 15, 2003: 9:51 AM EDT
CANCUN, Mexico (Reuters) - Food aid charities and environmental groups blamed the United States and other wealthy nations Monday for the collapse of world trade talks, saying delegates from the rich countries had come to Cancun unprepared to make concessions that would help the poor.

[mrsteve]

26. Yikes - missed my normal posting window - 2:30 numbers

Dow 9,471.90 +0.35 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 1,848.99 -6.04 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,016.59 -2.04 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.234% -0.035

Looks like it's still bouncing around - Yahoo Finance isn't impressed:

"2:30PM: Haven't seen the most inspiring action today as the indices have traded in lackluster fashion... Investors have been in a wait and see mode with the market trading near 52-week highs... A labor market that has lagged the broader market's recovery, the threat of a price correction during the seasonally-weak September period, and a flurry of chatter surrounding lofty P/E multiples have set the market up for a period of near-term consolidation..."

Sorry I missed my lunch time posting window - things have been hopping here today!

[Maeve]

27. 2:52 and heading south

I'm surprised...didn't expect such a mediocre day.

Dow 9,458.28 -13.27 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,846.40 -8.63 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,015.19 -3.44 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% -0.034

[JNelson6563]

28. same here Maeve

This has been a real yawner. I thought the real action was going to begin after Labor Day. Was that Labor Day of '04 or what?

Seems there is equal amounts of pumping up and hesitation/wariness. Which way will the scales tip?

Julie

[mrsteve]

29. Well the Nasdaq is in the dumpster

and being as Techs have driven alot of the rally lately, I'd say we are going to see a down day.

But then, I guess it's a 50% chance it could go the other way... ;-)

[JNelson6563]

30. Hold the phone!!

3:16 and whaddayanno? Looks like one of them there "last hour miracles" we see with such remarkable consistency of late!


Dow 9,476.03 +4.48 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,849.46 -5.57 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,016.85 -1.78 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.238% -0.031

Nothing as bettable as a sucker's rally these days, eh? ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

31. Must....reach...black ink!

Dow 9,473.86 +2.31 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,849.34 -5.69 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,016.67 -1.96 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.245% -0.024

[Maeve]

32. Energy...depleted...systems...failure....

Sorry--once I start a thought train, it's hard to derail it!

Very little really happened today. And the mostly-final numbers say:

Dow 9,449.30 -22.25 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,845.70 -9.33 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,014.76 -3.88 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.245% -0.024

[JNelson6563]

33. a sad finish to a sad day

and tomorrow will be just as pathetic. Waiting for the Greenman to speak and he will say nothing which will result in "mixed reactions" in the market. *yawn*

Catch all you marketeers in the AM!

Julie