CIA gives grim warning on European prospects

[Tinoire]

Sun 16 Jan 2005
CIA gives grim warning on European prospects

NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN


THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role.

(snip)

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

(snip)

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=56762005

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Real Intel or faith based intel?

I ask, you decide

[Judi Lynn]

37. Thank you for saying it. My first thought.Praise Porter for this,NO DOUBT

_Bush has found a way to actually GET the evidence he wants, and no one's gonna stand in his way now!

[JohnOneillsMemory]

77. UPenn study: US ranks 27th -social progress ended in 1980 due to poverty.

(I guess they've found the CIA dep't. of Faux News analysts who will fling the neo-cons feces against the wall to justify fascism and discredit social programs.-JOM)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2003-07/uop-ur2071703.php

>snip<

Using data provided primarily by national governments to the United Nations and the World Bank, Estes's study measures the ability of nations to meet the needs of their residents for health, education, human rights, political participation, population growth, improved women's status, cultural diversity and freedom from "social chaos." Military spending and environmental protection are also among the 40 factors used to tabulate his Weighted Index of Social Progress.

In the U.S., Estes, who has researched world social development for 30 years, found the pace of social development to be "on hold" since 1980, putting the U.S. on the same level as Poland and Slovenia in the current "report card."

The nations comprising the top 10 are Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Iceland, Italy and Belgium, and the bottom 10 are Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Liberia, Niger, Guinea, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire).

"Chronic poverty is the greatest threat to social progress in the United States," Estes said. "More than 33 million Americans -- almost 12 million of them children -- are poor." "Contrary to public perception," Estes said, "the majority of poor in the United States are members of established family households who work full-time and are white. No other economically advanced country tolerates such a level of poverty."

Other challenges impeding American social progress include slow economic growth, increasing unemployment, insecure access for many people to adequate health care and deteriorating schools in many urban areas.

>snip<

[zara]

97. great post

faith based foreign policy, faith based intel, faith based budget...call me a heretic and burn me at the stake for I don't share the faith!

[interupt]

102. "Real Intel or (Douglas) Feith-based Intel?

[billbuckhead]

2. Sometimes it seems the EU is more the enemy of this administration

than China, Russia or terrorism. Is America really doing better than Europe? Why is the Euro so high vs the dollar? Do European citizens have a higher quality of life that is unsustainable?

[cliss]

10. That's the question of the day.

I went to Sweden this summer on vacation. We had a wonderful time. Stockholm was beautiful. We saw healthy, beautiful people everywhere we went. Even old people were out walking, and I kept pointing to them "Look, there's another one. They are just beautiful."

My kids got very irritated with me, but I couldn't help it. We saw many old people out jogging or walking, and they even had hour-glass figures. Our relatives were very happy with their lives.

They all have nice Volvos, vacation homes around Sweden, 5 weeks government paid vacation every July. They seemed pretty happy to us. Everyone has government-paid health care and dental care.

Meantime, we got home where 45 million people have no health insurance. Life is a rat race. You've got to struggle for the almighty dollar.

Maybe the CIA should be minding its bees-wax and paying a little more attention here at home. Don't we have enough problems here?

[jdj]

51. They are kicking our ass every way except militarily.

There's a new book out "The United States of Europe" by a writer I heard interviewed on NPR that talks about it.

The late great greatest country on Earth, America. Given the death knell by George W. Bush.

[Lorien]

57. Here's an Amazon review of that book:

While the United States flexes its economic and military muscles around the world as the dominant global player, it may soon have company. According to the Washington Post's T.R. Reid, the nations of Europe are setting aside differences to form an entity that's gaining strength, all seemingly unbeknownst to the U.S. and its citizens. The new Europe, Reid says, "has more people, more wealth, and more trade than the United States of America," plus more leverage gained through membership in international organizations and generous foreign aid policies that reap political clout. Reid tells how European countries were willing to discontinue their individual centuries-old currencies and adopt the Euro, the monetary unit that is now a dominant force in world markets. This is noteworthy not just for exploring the considerable economic impact of the Euro, but also for what that spirit of cooperation means for every facet of Europe in the 21st century, where governments and citizens alike believe that the rewards of banding together are worth a loss in sovereignty. Reid's most compelling portrait of this trend is in the young Europeans known as "Generation E" who see themselves not as Spaniards or Czechs but simply as Europeans. To illustrate America's obliviousness to this trend, Reid tells of former GE CEO Jack Welch, who never bothered to factor European objections into a proposed multi-billion dollar merger with Honeywell, leading to the deal being torpedoed and Welch disgraced. But what is most striking in The United States of Europe is the contrast between the new Europe and the United States. The Europeans cannot match the raw military size of the U.S., but by mixing wealth with diplomacy and continental unity (helped along by antipathy toward George W. Bush's brand of Americanism), they are forming an innovative and powerful superpower. --John Moe

[bemildred]

3. When did the CIA undertake to consult with the EU?

If this is not propaganda/drool, why is the CIA giving free advice
to the EU? Eh? What bullshit.

At least the EU has the means to pay for what it wants.

[madfloridian]

28. I was just going to ask that.

My first thought.

[TexasLawyer]

48. Here, Here! n/t

[TankLV]

58. Hooo boy! You hit that nail squarely!

Ummm - so tell us, Porter Goss Repuke CIA idiots:

1) Does the EU currently pay for all of its programs? What is its current debt?
2) And, once more, how much debt is the US in WITHOUT even comming close to such programs?
3) Which is worse?

Just asking.

Inquiring minds want to know.

Repuke's just spew.

[aneerkoinos]

74. Attempt at answer

1) To my knowledge, EU has no debt, EU if funded mainly by persentage of VAT revenues from member state's and tariffs at EU's borders, EU has no right to tax citizens and social policies mostly fall under member state's jurisdiction.

For eurozone countries the stability pact states that yearly debt rate can be 3% of GNP, but as known, many important countries have had problems with that and were closer to 4%. Others like Finland are paying out debt. I don't have any total EU or EZ numbers available.

2) US is now adding 5% 6% more debt yearly. And US GNP is relatively more fluffy (capitalized) than in EU.

Most importantly, 50% of US federal budget is military related, and it's a plain fact US can't afford that amount of spending that is mostly harmfull. War against drugs is another big and very harmfull spending item.

[neweurope]

101. I think we need another comparison. EU has no debt - but the

individual member countries have, and quite a lot at that. It's also true that we have to change a lot if not most of our social programs - this process has already begun. How much is being discussed heatedly. However even after that process life in Europe will still be by far easier than in the US I think. In Germany we have a new word: "Americanize" has become a verb. A very frightening one.


----------------

Remember Fallujah

Bush to The Hague!

[wildwww2]

66. Our CIA helped to start a needless, murderous for profit only war crime

They are the last institution I would think of listening to when it comes to what is true and what is not. And Porter Goss is a lying worse than Nazi hack. If I ever saw one. He will protect our country by chasing down Democratic leaders sperm. And that will about be the extent of it. Besides futhering his bosses fascist agenda.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[bobbieinok]

4. so US fed agency in adm anti SS attacks European safety net?????

[billbuckhead]

13. Those Commies over at The Economist rate USA 13th in quality of life

Ireland leads world for quality of life

UK comes 29th in global happiness survey

Owen Bowcott
Thursday November 18, 2004
The Guardian

Ireland is easily the best country in the world to inhabit, according to a quality of life survey which relegates the United Kingdom to a second-division ranking.

The ambitious attempt to compare happiness around the world is based on the principle that wealth is not the only measure of human satisfaction

------------snip------------------

Our other large European partners like France and Germany, occupying 25th and 26th position respectively, fared little better. But smaller states, including Sweden, Italy, Denmark and Spain, all appeared in the top 10. The US, which has the second highest GDP after diminutive Luxembourg, slipped to 13th place in the survey. Other big economies did even worse. China was in the lower half of the league at 60th while Russia, where GDP is only $9,810, scraped in towards the bottom on 105th.

------------snip--------------------

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,2763,1353553,00.html>

[Stepup2]

5. This has

a faint odor of sulfur about it...

[NAO]

6. This is *, using the CIA to spread his SocSec Propaganda

This report is INTENDED to filter back to the American masses, as reinforcement of *'s message that Social Security is DOOMED and CANNOT SURVIVE.

It is shameless how aggressive a propaganda campaign * is using to gut America's most successful social program.

[Judi Lynn]

38. He should be benched. This is unworthy of a U.S. President. n/t

[0007]

94. ..or at least beached like the mighty 30 pilot whales that beach themselve

in North Carlina early this month.

[SmokingJacket]

91. Yep... bingo.

If Americans look at Europe and see that *they've* somehow managed to take good care of their old people, we might realize that we want the same thing.

I guess the CIA under Goss is just a propaganda mouthpiece. I'm only shocked that they're not trying harder to pretend otherwise.

[teryang]

98. Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes,

This is propaganda aimed at Americans.

[Jack Rabbit]

7. Is this the real CIA or Porter Goss' CIA speaking?

The former had it faults, but it made reality-based assessments.

The latter only tells the Frat Boy -- and the rest of us -- what the Frat Boy wants to hear.

[Judi Lynn]

39. It's getting downright embarrassing to watch him work, isn't it? n/t

[lovuian]

8. so the European Social Security is the enemy

Of course cause their quality of life will be great while ours will be horrible!!!

CIA needs to report on terrorists and the social security system of the EU isn't it!!!

[yurbud]

9. sounds like they want to Third World-ize Europe like they are doing to us

[hector459]

11. It won't matter because by that time the US will have been bankrupted by

its war machine. Our overall standard of living will have plummeted because of the ruptured safety net left by the Republicans. Our children will be debt ridden for their entire lives passing on the debt to their children. The environment will be devastated. We will be a living "soylent green" society with the ultra rich living behind gated overcrowded gated communities that never see the outside of their gates. They will have plenty of "toys" but their lives will be miserable because they will not be able to flaunt their wealth before the working world. They won't be able to travel out side their gates even to go abroad because they will be hated by the workers of their own country and the people of the world.

[NJCher]

14. that's the way I see it, hector

You've painted a picture of America future. I see nothing to stop this scenario from becoming a reality.


Cher

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. Well before things get that bad for the working classes

you will see Revolution, what you are seeing described is a misery index close to 100%, when it hits 90% all bets ARE off... we are starting to hear this talk more and more, you just have to listen... but in some ways it has started... and the boys in charge, as usual... are missing the whisters, or the gathering clouds.

They have the same attitude others have had over the centuries. It comes down to.. Let them eat cake... yuo know how that party ended...

[Bouncy Ball]

59. ...

"I look forward to the day when I hear us all screaming

Ahhh ahhh ahh ahhhh ahhhhhh,

I look forward to the day when I hear us all sing together

Ohhh oh oh

I look forward to the day when I hear us all screaming

HERE COMES THE REVOLUTION"

--RX Bandits

[JohnOneillsMemory]

78. Liberals should make alliances with NRA members, not antagonism.

My own feelings about the 2nd amendment have changed drastically in the last 3 years, if ya git my drift...

http://museums.cnd.org/June4th/massacre.html
(Tianamin Square Massacre Photos)

[NJCher]

68. the rich

Cher

[tabasco]

25. Bankrupted by the war machine. Exactly right.

Same fate that befell the Soviet Union.

The greed of the war profiteers respects no nation.

The US will be ruined by our massive "defense" spending.

[Judi Lynn]

40. They'll have their tax cuts to keep them warm, and a devastated planet.

Talk about short-sighted. Greed isn't the wisest master, is it?

[TexasLawyer]

53. They'll all have places on the French Riviera

just like Richard Perle has now with his profiteering money. If the U.S. becomes a chemical cesspool and the countries we bomb are reduced to depleted uranium-soaked rubble, it will be irrelevant to these criminals.

[Judi Lynn]

69. Richard Perle's the first we know of who has established residence

in Europe. I'm tempted to wonder if he's the one who fears getting trapped in the States the most. Maybe he's the actual source of the worst of these hideous, deadly ideas and plans the _Bush administration has been forcing upon the world.

Wonder if Cheney plans to move out of his bunker and into a foreign address, himself, after _Bush and he are expected to leave.

[rogue_bandit]

12. Backing up the SS scam

Seems to me that this feeds into the fears around Social Security failing. It also might be preparing the way for eliminating more welfare programs.

[Just Me]

43. Welcome to DU!!! It appears we hate countries that care for their people.

I guess our "new" CIA has to make others look bad so that our citizens will still believe they've got it good,...even while starving to death or dying from lack of health care.

Welcome to DU. :hi:

[Mr_Spock]

46. Of course, it all fits together

Good point.

[depakid]

52. That's exsactly what it's intended to do

pretty thinly veiled, as well- although after 20+ years of divesting in education, Americans will swallow just about anything.

I suspect Europe remains a little wiser.

[Octafish]

55. Touchdown.

Porter Operation 40 Goss won't be playing fiddle to no Team B of the past. His team B is of the future. Yurep'll go bust before Bush's Amerika. Sure. Right.

Welcome to DU, rogue_bandit! Great first post!

[teryang]

15. Is this why the Euro is taking market share from the dollar?

Because Europeans are not competitive on world markets? Who is it whose economic system is in crisis? What ideological claptrap. Did they publish an economic critique of the enlightenment as well?

Much of Europe's economic problem today results from the collapsing dollar which is damaging their private sector substantially. They have to shoot themselves in the foot to cure the problem of the US banks draining wealth from Europe and other commercial powers by printing unlimited paper undermining their central banks.

[necso]

16. Those EU types had better get with the program...

or we are going to take the ball, go "home" -- and generally screw 'em over.

Naah-Naah!

...

Well, the CIA is well on its way to becoming a neocon fiefdom. (The EU does have some issues, but imitating our social darwinist, corporatist, imperial lootocracy is not the answer.)

And yeah, this is also intended for domestic consumption -- we can't be like those effete, weakling, failed states over there in "Old Europe".

[Vidar]

17. As if the CIA ever got anything right.

[Dirk39]

18. At least welfare-systems in Europe still exist...

to a certain degree.

That's a major progress for the CIA compared with their bogus war on terror:-)

Accepting and defending the neoliberal turbo-capitalism and equating it in a demagogic way with "freedom and democracy", an economic system that simply excludes millions and millions of people, who would like to work, from society and at the same time, demanding social security and welfare systems to be destroyed, means fascism.
It's somehow sarcastic: the new strategists at the Pentagon already admit that the USA has no chance to re-establish their economy and the only god that will be exported from the USA in the future will be "security" and wars. And their comrades from the CIA propose to the Export-Nation No. 1 in the world - Germany - to deconstruct the welfare-system.
By the way: Schröder and the neoliberal Greens have already committed the largest cuts in the welfare-system in Germany since WW2.

Hello from Germany,
Dirk

[JohnOneillsMemory]

80. 1998 EU study -Political Controls: US leads in electric cattle prod sales.

(This European Parliament report is over 8 years old now. It describes the growth of police-state technologies in conflict with human rights and democracy. Unfortunately, abusive technology, like Frodo's ring, is also in Europe and causing it to become more like the US in barbarism. Atleast the EU recognizes and deplores it.-JOM)
http://www.uhuh.com/laws/europar3.htm

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS ASSESSMENT

Table of Charts and Figures
1 Introduction 1
2 Role and Function of Political Control Technologies 3
3 Recent Trends and Innovations 6
4 Developments in Surveillance Technology 15
5 Innovations in Crowd Control Weapons 22
6 New Prison Control Systems 40
7 Interrogation, Torture Techniques and Technologies 44
8 Regulation of Horizontal Proliferation 53
9 Conclusions 59
10 Notes and References 60
11 Bibliography 73
Appendix 1. Military, Security & Police Fairs.

>snip<

Amnesty International has just published a survey of fifty countries where electric shock torture and ill treatment has been recorded since 1990.115

According to the manufacturers, the new pulsed variants of electroshock weapon were developed in the 1980's on the basis of biomedical research. They come in several variants including hand held prods and batons, (Fig. 42) electrified riot shields (Fig. 43) and electrified dart systems like the Taser (Fig. 44.). Electroshock weapons work on the induction coil principle. They are battery powered devices which step up the voltage several thousand fold to produce a high voltage low amperage shock that affects the victim's muscle control. As well as severe pain and a temporary paralysis, such weapons also achieve a psychological effect because of the dancing display of crackling blue lightning which traverses the electrodes of both shields and prods.

>snip<



Sadly, it no longer comes as a surprise to discover that other leading Western Liberal Democracies have been colluding with the torture trade. Yet during the 1980's some clues were afforded by reports that US companies such as Technipol were freely advertising thumbcuffs, leg irons and shackles (Klare & Amson, 1981). The Danish Medical Group of Amnesty found that electronic prods manufactured by the US Shok-Baton Company had been used in the violation of human rights,163 and a repentant Uruguayan torturer confessed that he had used US-made electroshock batons.(Cooper, 1984).164 In fact scores of US companies either manufacture or supply electroshock devices, thumbcuffs and leg irons.165

>snip<

more...

[sweetheart]

19. The EU does not realize how much of an enemy the bush* admin is

Really they think he's evil, but they don't see how he intends to
break them using the US geopolitical powers. Like japan, there is an
EU interita towards making necessary reforms. Were i an EU benign
dictator, i would phase out the CAP right quick and shift economic
stimulus towards creating inter-EU migration, that the workers and
skill competence be able to shift towards its best economic point of
applicaton that the EU be able to better compete. Lack of mobility is
the EU's largest systemic weakness... making businesses not competetive
with their asian and american counterparts.

The CIA does indeed have some things right, that there will be a
squeeze. That it will end the european experiment i disagree. I
think that any liberal person in the world "HAS" to believe the EU
will be succssful, as it is the sigular proof that it works and if that
experiment fails, we're back to global feaudalism... and that is the
intention of the bush admin to destroy the project, much as the european
monarchs were not entralled with american success in 1800.

Tony blair needs to go to prison for war crimes, the bridge needs to
turn in to a draw bridge and a new europe must become independent,
and muscular beyond the wildest dreams of today's EU planners.

[leesa]

20. Too funny. Trying to sell their sick capitalistic failures by trashing

the sucessful European models.

[Robert Oak]

21. Heavy stink of propaganda

I'm sure the EU or some economists in Europe would have already
said this if it was true.

I hope this propaganda attempt gets the EU hopping pissed and then
can break through US corporate media.

[Dirk39]

27. The pro-corporate and neoliberal economists...

in Europe are doing this for years.
Esp. in Germany and France, the corporate and government media are spinning the necessity to "reform" (newspeech for abolishing) the welfare systems since years.

Since the destruction of the Sovietunion, there is no reason for corporations to keep the welfare and "New Deal" systems alive, that once were established to compete with what the socialist countries in East-Europe and Russia had to offer.

They want to get rid of it now, it's that easy. In Germany, as an example, under a socialdemocratic-green government, the poorest 25% of our populatin has lost about 50% of their wealth within the last 10 years.

Dirk

[mojavekid]

32. I am curious, is there a strong resistance to this reform

in Europe you mention? With the poorest 25% losing as much as you say, has it been "heard" in (and by) the Media and Government? I realize however, that the poor are the last to be heard, until it's near to late.

[Dirk39]

34. Hi!

There's a lot of resistance against it. Alone in Germany, more than half a million of people did protest against the "reforms" in April 2004 in Berlin (Germany has about 80 million inhabitants).

But we're facing the same kind of problems progressive people face everywhere: the unemployed people and those on welfare are isolated, they have no self-confidence and they feel guilty as if they are responsible for their situation. It's the climate that emphasizes fascism and racism more than progressive thoughts. They simply never meet people, who are in the same situation - very different from the origin of the labour-movement during the 19th and 20th century.

The majority of the victims of the neoliberal "counter-reforms" simply don't vote anymore. The number of voters in many european countries starts to resemble the USA.
Esp. in Germany, there is no party that represents those people in any way. And the Left in Germany is still somehow shocked about the Greens in Germany, who became a neoliberal right-wing party after becoming part of the government since 1998.
Dirk

[mojavekid]

45. "Thanks Dirk39!"

I appreciate your excellent and thoughtful response! The parallels between Germany and the U.S. are disturbing, though I understand that it is still early and hopeful for Germany.

[jakpalmer]

96. I agree with you Dirk

but regarding Germany's example, it may also have something to do with the reunification. Don't you think so ?

[w4rma]

22. Sounds like Goss is successfully filling the CIA with nutcases. (nt)

[Fovea]

23. Porter Goss's official disinformation service

is starting to earn its blood money!

[Supersedeas]

88. Porter is winning friends by predicting their demise

[buddysmellgood]

24. Lucky for EU, the new Shia govt in Iraq will be handing them oil contracts

As soon as we are gone, the Shia govt will reclaim Iraq's oil and go back to EU contracts.

[BillZBubb]

26. Yeah those bad Euro's are borrowing and spending wastefully!

Oh, wait, that's US! And they said the CIA wasn't politicized!

We are the country living far beyond it's means and mortgaging the future.

What a friggin' joke.

[Minstrel Boy]

29. "undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role"

Can't the EU take a little friendly advice? The CIA's just trying to help! God knows, nothing would please it more than the fulfillment of Europe's ambitions.

[Gyre]

30. Didn't the CIA tell us the Iraqis had WMD?

Then, when was it exactly, that they re-earned the right to be listened to? Can't have it both ways, you lying, spying pieces of shit.

Gyre

[ixion]

31. EU to CIA: mind your own damn business

geez... as if we don't have our own problems. :eyes:

[CoffeeCat]

33. Oh boy! Is this another "slam dunk" from the CIA? (n/t)

[salin]

35. Smells like CIA domestic propoganda to shore up social security

reform (aka privatization) here in the US.

[Massacure]

36. EU to the CIA:

"Our Bushit sensors are going off. All the money we spend on reseting it is going to bankrupt us!"

:eyes:

[Downtown Hound]

41. Well, certainly never heard this before from the CIA

not until Bush fired all the good people in it and replaced them with yes men wanting to do his bidding. Hmm.

[genieroze]

42. The CIA is a bunch of LIARS!!!!!!. They are * puppets, what * tells them

to say and do, they say and do. * doesn't want Merikans to get any ideas about real freedom or what could happen if the government uses it's tax dollars and resources on it's citizens rather than it's corporations. We are the Corporate States of Fascist Amerika, by the corporations, and against the people. Europe uses the money it gets from it's citizens to help the citizens. This countries whores uses the money it gets from it's citizens to help themselves and their corporate masters. Europe's social system is working, and * is terrified that we will see just how terrible this country has become.

[punpirate]

44. This sounds like a variation on a theme...

... the Bushies were playing to Canada a while back--insisting that the Canadians spend more on defense at precisely the time they were doing a few budget shuffles to ensure that the health care system was fully funded.

Right now, the growing US complaint is that the EU countries aren't pulling their fair share of NATO costs. That might factor into this little bit of black journalism. It's very possible that the CIA wants EU citizens to develop a little fear about having to defend themselves in order to bust open their social/economic system.

People all over the world will complain, but the EU is a net exporter, I believe, their GDP and population are roughly equivalent to ours and they might be trading a slower rate of economic growth for a superior quality of life.

Besides, one of the only real necessities for economic expansion is to accommodate new workers entering the workforce--with a declining or static workforce, the only remaining necessity is controlling inflation and/or having enough productivity increase to offset that inflation.

They like to also pick on Germany, and memories are short. It was about fourteen years ago that East and West Germany were reunified. In one fell swoop, that was equivalent to the US, in terms of population, taking on the population, social, economic, communications and environmental problems of Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and all of Central America. That would have buried us.

Cheers.

[gorbal]

49. They are scared of the "Threat of a good example"

The US will lose a lot of sway within Europe if those countries that they describe as "welfare states" remain successfull. Other countries will look over at their neighbor and say to themselves "why can't we be happy like them" and vote accordingly.

[Dover]

47. The CIA's masters are the huge multinational corporations, so this

kind of propaganda makes perfect sense within that context.

[depakid]

50. Yeah, right- propaganda central

Thanks in part to the Dems rolling over on Goss, the CIA is nothing more than a Republican propaganda mill.

NOTHING that comes out of Langley is even the slighest bit trustworthy- EVERY BIT OF IT that'll be released from here on out has been reviewed to ensure that it does nothing more than advance the far right's preconceived agenda.

[jdj]

54. What I want to know is when does the American public

ever wake up and say "ruh-roh, this isn't what they said was gonna happen"? When the EU convenes with the rest of the world and get's permission just to go ahead and nuke us into oblivion?

[daleo]

60. This is stupid - if I was the CIA, I would worry more about the U.S.

The idea that a welfare state that was too generous to the bulk of the population to survive is a fantasy that Louis XVI would have agreed with.

It is nice that they threw in a bit of scare mongering about Muslims.

[cire4]

61. Nothing the CIA says is credible.....

Porter Goss has made it clear that he is turning the CIA into a propaganda arm for Bush administration. This report seems to be nothing more than right wing rhetoric dressed up to seem "official."

[DivinBreuvage]

62. These are the opening stages of the Northkoreazation of the United States

10 years from now we'll all be starving, and those of us in the north will be freezing, but we'll be watching the "news" and saying "Thank God we're not as bad off as those miserable bastards in Finland or Sweden!"

[DeepModem Mom]

63. This is what our CIA is now spending its time doing, under Goss???

Osama Bin Forgotten, indeed!

[happyslug]

64. Think in terms of the American Revolution

As long as France had Canada, America had to support Britain. Once the French lost Canada in 1763, America and Britain went their separate ways. In fact the American Revolution is less a Revolution but the dissolution of a long term alliance that one side (Britain) did not want to end (So instead of leaving the US go, Britain "Declared war" on the US with the intolerable acts of 1774).

Historians always wonder why America did NOT have the extensive blood fest that occurred during the English Civil War (1640-1660), The French Revolution (1789-1795), The Russian Revolution (1917-1921) and the Chinese Revolution (1946-1949). The Reason is the American Revolution was less a Revolt against the Ruling Elite of America (which what happened in England in 1640, France in 1789, Russia is 1917 and China in 1949) than the ruling elite dissolving their long term alliance with Britain. Britain elite wanted to keep that Alliance so Britain went to war to force America back into an Alliance with Britain. Spain had done the same thing with both Netherlands and Britain at the time of Queen Elizabeth (Britain and Spain were close allies all through the middle ages until Elizabeth took England Protestant while Spain stayed Catholic). The Protestants supported the industrialization of Britain while the Catholics wanted Britain to maintain its trade with Spain (Thus the split had less to do with Religion than it had to do with Trade and who controlled that trade).

My point here is the US relationship with NATO is looking more and more like the English-Spanish Middle age Alliance (and the Alliance between Britain and its American Colonies) at the time of the break up of those alliances. Europe is going one way, the US is going another. Western Europe (primarily France and Germany) wants to spread its control throughout Eastern Europe and the Mid-East. The US wants to do the same. The US wants Eastern Europe and the Mid-East to view the US as the number one power in both regions. France and Germany wants the EU to be viewed that way.

The dispute between the EU and the US had existed since WWI, but given the fear of the USSR, both the US and the EU submerged that dispute to their joint fear of the Soviet Union. Thus any dispute between the EU and the US was handled diplomatically from 1945 till 1989 (When the Soviet Union Dissolved).

With the end of the Soviet Union, the divergent aims of the EU and the US came to the foreground. I saw this happening in 1990 (and was laughed at on the grounds the US and the EU were always going to see eye to eye as fellow democratic countries bound together through NATO, When I Point out that economically the US and the EU will come into conflict over both Eastern Europe and the Mid-east, everyone told me that no such dispute will EVER arise to break up NATO).

When an Alliance is breaking up, but had not yet broke up, a war can bring the countries back together but only for a short while (This is what happened in America during the dispute between Spain and England in 1771). The problem is with the removal of the common threat holding the allies together conflicts between the allies will come to a head a lead to a break up of the alliance. Within two years of the War between Spain and England over the Falklands, America would have the Boston Tea party and Britain will respond with the Intolerable Acts.

The war with Serbia brought the US and EU back together, but with the end of that War (like First taking of the Falklands in 1771 by Britain) the trend to a break up escalated until you had Europe opposing Bush's war with Iraq. Some people (like the Catholics of Elizabethan England) want to keep NATO alive but like Spanish-English alliance of the Middle Ages NATO is dead, and has been dead since the break up of the Soviet Union and the present war put in the last nails. NATO did do some fighting in Serbia in the mid-1990s but like the American Support for England in 1771, a Small war is NOT enough to keep the alliance alive after the reason for the alliance no longer exists.

In 1763 the French no longer had Canada, in 1771 America supported Britain in a war with Spain (France's Ally at that time), than in 1776 the US declared its independence (Ending its long alliance with Britain and allying with its long time enemy FRANCE).

In 1990 the Soviet Union Dissolved, NATO did its Serbian attacks in the mid-1990s but had refused to Support Bush's War in Iraq.

Like the US in 1776, the EU has to recognize its enemy of the day. The EU has to acknowledge that it had direct disputes with the US, More direct disputes with the US than any other country. In 1776 the US realized it had more disputes with BRITAIN than any other country, and America had to accept the fact that its long alliance with Britain had to end (and the US had to fight to end that Alliance, like England had to do with Spain at the Time of Queen Elizabeth).

My point is this statement from the CIA is a statement noting the above, that the US and the EU are competitors in the World and the only way the US can win is if the EU dissolves back into their Nation-States. If the EU dissolves into its Nation-States than the US will dominate the World by playing one former EU member against another. This is what the CIA hopes will happen. It would force the EU members to return to the US as its "leader". Thus the US could once again depend on the members of NATO as extensions of US Troops.

On the other hand France and Germany want the EU to succeed so that they can compete with the US for Middle-eastern Oil. With control of Mid-East Oil the EU will dominate the 21st century like the US dominated the 20th. The CIA believes that Europe will NOT spend enough on its Military to oppose the US in the Mid-east so the US will win control over Mid-east oil. The chief reason for this belief is that Europe will NOT give up its Social Welfare programs so that the money spent on such programs can be transferred to the EU's Militarily. The CIA believes that since the US does not spend anywhere near what the EU spends on its Social Welfare Program the US will win (The US and the EU tax about the same, but the US spends way more on its Military than on its Social Safety net).

The CIA sees this fight between the US and the EU as leading to the Dissolution of Europe's Welfare State system for the CIA is not willing to concede the possibility of a US economic Collapse. The CIA appears to believe that the only way for Europe to "fight" the US is for Europe to build up its military ability to project power into the Middle-East. Such expenditures means something else in the European Economy will have to give, Basically the welfare-state. Thus in the opinion of the CIA the Welfare state has to go for Europe to Fight the US. Furthermore is Europe is unable to cut its welfare state Europe will not have enough money to build up its military to project power to the Mid-east. In the later case the US wins and than forces the EU to dissolve its welfare state for US economic gain.

Note the above Assumes the US can continue to spend on its Military at the same rate that it has been doing. It assumes the US will not have to spend more on Social Programs. If the US Economy goes bad (based on its greater dependence on oil, the US huge trade deficits and the huge financial deficits) I do not see EITHER trend continuing. First the US military is hopelessly dependent on Oil, in any oil crisis the Military will demand oil before the Civil Economy, but that will lead to reduce tax receipts do to lost of economic activities, which in turn reduce willingness of Americans (and other buyers of debt) to loan the US Government money. As the US Economy goes down hill people will demand food and assistance from the Government. At first the Government will refuse (Do to the "war") but after a while (and a few riots) such assistance will come through (on the grounds it is cheaper than suppressing the Riots with troops that are needed in the Mid-east). Europe's Stronger Economy will pull it out of the resulting depression (helped by Europe's less dependence on oil than the US).

I see the latter happening much more likely than China and Japan to continue to buy US Treasury bonds and thus subsidizing the US invasion of the Mid-East. If the US losses the Mid-East, Europe will out bid the US for the Mid-East Oil and become the major power in the 21st century even with increased welfare spending. Without the Mid-east oil the US military advantage is meaningless. Furthermore without that oil unless the US stop spending money on its Military (and transferring what oil it has to the Civilian market place for greater economic growth) the US economy will fall so fast and so far the US will be a third rate economic power behind not only Europe, but also India, China, Japan and maybe even Russia.

Notice the key to the problem is who Control Mid-East Oil. If control can be done on strict Military lines the US will win and Europe will have to dance to the US tune (including dissolving the EU). On the other hand if the US can NOT hold onto the Mid-East oil, the greater Economic Strength of the EU will force the US to dance to the Eu's Tune.

My point here is simple, NATO is dead and the EU and the US are "fighting" over who will control the Mid-East Oil. They are some Europeans and American who are living in the past and what to preserve the Ghost of NATO but the present rulers of America (Bush and Company) have already accepted NATO's death and are acting accordingly. While both the EU and the US are keeping NATO "alive" for various reasons (Including bureaucratic inertia) both the EU and the US are going they separate ways. The US is betting on its Military, the EU is betting on its Economy (Which is dependent on the EU and the Euro). This promises to be a long "war". This "War" will be "peaceful" for Europe and the US (Like the Cold War was peaceful between the US and the USSR). If the EU win the US economy will collapse leading to the Withdraw of US forces from the Mid-east. If the US wins, the EU will dissolve and the nations-states of Europe will become US Puppets.

I see the EU winning this battle for stronger economies almost always defeat stronger militaries (See Britain and Napoleon and the US and Hitler). This is especially true in DISPUTES OF LONG DURATION (Which this EU-US fight is shaping up to be). The real issue is can the US military hold onto the Mid-east? At what point does the US economy starts to tank? Does the EU dissolve before than? Or does the EU stay together to outbid the US for Mid-east Oil?

The sad point is the best resolution of this dispute would be if the US would withdraw from Iraq, dissolve its military and tell its people that they have to start to adjust to a post-oil age. Bush and company does NOT want to address that for it means a return to the City and addressing the problems of transportation in rural America (i.e. transportation WITHOUT Oil and Automobiles). Bush will prefer a Military solution, take the oil and use it and to hell with the future.

[Dirk39]

65. Wow!

Hello from Europe and thanx for your posting and the historic background.

Just to add a little sidenote: Schröder did openly admit in a Spiegel-Interview last year that the purpose of the so-called welfare-reforms is to collect money to make sure that Europe - if this is an illusion or not - will become the strongest economy on earth within the next ten years.

Schröder is using the same arguments the CIA is using to justify this agenda: the demographic factor, globalisation etc. ppp.

But Germany is still the strongest export-nation worldwide. And the profits of german corporations just go higher and higher. Although the german gross national product was just rising about under 2% the last year. And the domestic demand - as a consequence of the so-called reforms - is at an all time low.

On edit: many people - in Europe as in the USA - fail to understand that even the "solidarity" of those, who opposed communism, is breaking apart. I guess this is one of the reasons that the most reckless and criminal parts of corporations in the USA support Bush.
As long as the Soviet Union did exist, a kind of pragmatism and rationalism did even unite different corporate interests. In a way, the government was still a kind of mediator between different economic interests and accepted among the different corporate interests. What we experience now - in Europe as in the USA - is the collapse of this more or less "rational" capitalism.

Dirk

[Comadreja]

75. Big Corporatins hate Unions

United workers have power to resist corporate tyranny. Likewise, a unied Europe has the power to thumbtheir nose at the US Bosses. Expect more shabby attempts to bust the EU.

[Minstrel Boy]

82. thanks for the excellent analysis n/t

[Just Me]

83. Impressive comparison and analysis!!!

WOW "happyslug"!!!

Ultimately, we will discover, once again, that the "rule of force" ends up being merely a temporary profiteering endeavor that always leads to a destructive failure,...at least, that is a gut reaction to your analysis.

I'm going to print out your post and reflect on it for awhile.

Thank you for contributing your knowledge, observations and analyses!!!

:yourock:

[xxqqqzme]

67. and just why

is this 'intelligence' report any more believeable than anything else coming from this newest RW propaganda machine? W/ goss' appointment, the CIA has gone from incompetent 2 enfeeble.

[essarhaddon]

70. Ha ha ha, from Spain.

Europe is not a paradise, but certainly we ain't gonna be taking advice from the CIA any time soon. In Spain we have a recent Constitution (1978) and the Welfare State, the Social Security, health care, etc. are written in it as a mandate for the Government (articles 41, 43, 49, 50, and so on). So any law trying to diminish or deny these rights would be nullified by the "Tribunal Constitucional".

[tenshi816]

103. Comments from the UK

I moved to the UK in 1986 and would find it hard to go back to the US. We pay very high taxes here (40% income tax in my tax bracket and 17.5% value added tax on most purchases) but I nevertheless have a much higher standard of living than I did back in Atlanta as a young adult just starting out in the early 1980s.

I can remember not being able to afford to go to the doctor or dentist, for example, despite being college-educated and working - I had health insurance through my employer but I still never went to the doctor unless it got to the point that I had to, because my health insurance didn't kick in unless the cost was over the huge deductible the policy had - in other words, if I got sick, I still pretty much had to pay for it myself despite having insurance. No dental insurance at all.

Now, if I or my children need to see a doctor, it's paid for by the National Health Service (that's part of why we have such high taxes, and it's worth every penny). Children's prescriptions are free until they're 16 and people over that age pay £6.70 per prescription, no matter what the drug is. Pregnant women don't have to pay for prescriptions at all.

Speaking of pregnancy, I had two complicated pregnancies and I was looked after superbly by the National Health service and did not have to pay anything extra for it because of the extra care I received.

People here get at least 4 weeks of vacation a year, and again, despite the high taxes we pay, I've had holidays I could only dream of taking when I lived in America, simply because there are so many other benefits we get here that have to be paid for there. For example, I go skiing for two weeks in Canada every year, and that's something I don't think I'd be doing if I was still living in Atlanta.

It's true, Europe isn't perfect, but I can't see it going to hell in 15 years. Sounds to me like the CIA is using creative reasoning in order to put forth a scenario that fits in with what Fearless Leader wants to hear.

[xchrom]

71. ok, there's the punchline -- what was the joke?

oh yeah -- iraq has wmd's.

[deminflorida]

72. Yeah right...they are in a better position to reform retirements

than we are. For years individual European countries have suffered general strikes and protests due to necessary pension reforms. Now that they are united and can implement EU wide retirement standards and combine financial markets to support such accounts they have a better chance of fixing their problems than we do. They have already enacted methods to fix their problems:

Note: this is not privatization, this is government sponsored retirement accounts supported by financial market investment, that's the way I read it.

http://www.pwcglobal.com/pl/eng/about/press-rm/experts/04_10_ebf.html

"The EU’s Financial Services Action Plan includes important measures for savings and pensions. But a sharper focus on universal and voluntary pensions will be needed to achieve pensions harmonization across Europe.

In May 2003, the European Union ushered in one its first directives regarding the creation of a single financial market for pensions, an important part of its Financial Services Action Plan. To come into effect in August 2005, ‘Directive 2003/41/EC’ on the activities and supervision of institutions for occupational retirement provisions’ seeks to foster an internal market for occupational pensions on a EU-wide basis."

[leftchick]

73. This is so Transparent. It back's up the idioit*s claim

this past week about The US becoming like Europe. Disgusting propagana courtesy of Porter... :puke:

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7269512

Fri Jan 7, 2005 03:13 PM ET

WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - A top White House economic adviser warned on Friday the U.S. economy could become "more like those of Europe" if taxes were raised to stabilize Social Security for the long haul.
"That is not the direction we should be heading," the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Gregory Mankiw, told a conference in Philadelphia sponsored by the American Economic Association.

A text of his remarks was issued in Washington.

Mankiw said the Bush administration considered Social Security reform the single greatest fiscal challenge the country faces and said it had to be reformed in order to remain sound. The White House already has served notice that overhauling the retirement program is a priority and wants to set up private savings accounts as part of it.

"Without reform, the nation will face little choice but vastly higher taxes and the resulting drag on economic growth," Mankiw said, adding that Americans should beware to avoid "the sophistry of those opposed to reform."

Democratic opponents of the White House's call for private savings accounts say such a scheme would gut the certainty that characterizes the Social Security program and would principally benefit big business suppliers of savings vehicles.

[98geoduck]

76. Europe is Stockpiling WMD's and is a threat to the Free World!!!

Now that they have gotten rid of all of the Intelligent folk in the agency, they're renaming it Circlejerk Institute for America

[VegasWolf]

79. awol is pissed because the euro does not have

"In God We Trust" printed on it.

[Robert Oak]

81. if the EU breaks up in 15 it will last 12 years longer than the US

Spare me they are going to break up.

It's the US who is in economic danger, run away deficits,
shipping jobs overseas, corrupt politicians controlled by special
interests and a war that nobody wants except some powerful
military "privitzation" contracts.

If Iraq is looked at in cold hard dollars, even grabbing the oil
will never pay for it...

oops but wait, the US taxpayer is paying for it...those multinationals
just get the profits from it.

[pinto]

84. These guys would politicize a bowel movement if they thought it would pay

[Robert Oak]

85. Implications of the CIA now publishing political propaganda

Think about it...

these agencies were stable and never to this extent a political tool
of a political party..

(yes, we have a huge history of nasty in them executing agenda
per each administration)

but more and more they are dismantling the government to do the neocon
bidding...

whether facts are in reality or not.

the FDA not bothering to be objective, now the CIA being "purged",
all of our dedicated, patriotic civil servants being gagged to
comply with the neocon agenda.

This is way beyond a couple of bogus propaganda reports.

[fedsron2us]

86. Another symptom of US decline ?

The purpose of spy organisations is to gather accurate intelligence not to prop up the delusional fantasies of their political masters. The EU has its problems but they pale into insignificance with those facing the USA. Bush has set the controls for the heart of the sun. It is only a matter of time before the ship burns up.

[truebrit71]

87. And the CIA was 100% spot on with their WMD assessments too right?

I was unaware that they were involved in economice forecasting....besides the EU has the 2nd highest GDP behind the USA and is rapidly gaining....This has the scent of someone trying to allay the fears of the Boy King and his court jesters...

[aneerkoinos]

95. Biggest

After the latest enlargement, EU has bigger GDP than US.

[Guns Aximbo]

89. Propaganda

Regardless if this is true or not (remeber, CIA/WMD/Slam Dunk,etc...)
this is Bush Propaganda designed to get America ready to support Bushes rape of Social Security.

[DemBones DemBones]

99. BINGO! nt

[Name removed]

90. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[killbotfactory]

92. Their track record is impeccable

Be afraid, europeans, be very afraid...

and uh.. pay no attention to our obscene amounts of debt. thank you.

[Skarbrowe]

93. Bullpoop.

[torque]

100. Try again B**H! Not one damn dime not ever! n/t

[ProgressiveConn]

104. He does have a point.

I too think NATOs days are limited. The EU has some hard roads ahead but I think they'll pull it off.