Jobs Outlook May Stay Volatile
As Caution in Hiring Persists
By KRIS MAHER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
January 19, 2005; Page A2
Despite the current economic expansion, some economists expect the U.S. jobs market to be volatile this year, as many companies continue to hire based on short-term outlook, rather than projected, steady demand.
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The fierce pressures companies face to lower costs and raise productivity have helped shift hiring practices, says Cliff Waldman, an economist with the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a manufacturing-industry group based in Arlington, Va. More companies, in his view, are applying the principles of "lean" manufacturing -- keeping inventories as low as possible and reacting to short-term demand -- to staffing as well. That is especially true for companies with a short production cycle, such as electronic parts and toys, rather than aerospace companies, where orders are placed years in advance of delivery.
At the same time, the flood of highly skilled workers suddenly available for hire after many companies slashed staffs during the recession also has contributed to a job market where employers can easily find people willing to work for several months or even weeks.
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A more cautious short-term approach and heavy reliance on temporary or contract work could help explain two other conundrums in the job market. Economists have puzzled over the lack of growth in real wages despite gains in productivity and the fact that unemployed people are remaining out of work for longer periods. Short-term hires don't build salaries and a significant number of unemployed workers might not want to take temporary work.
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Write to Kris Maher at kris.maher@wsj.com
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