Survey: Most Iraqis plan to vote (International Republican Institute)

[Barrett808]

BAGHDAD, Iraq — An overwhelming majority of Iraqis continue to say they intend to vote Jan. 30, even as insurgents press attacks aimed at rendering the election a failure, according to a new public-opinion survey.

...

The poll, which was conducted in late December and early January for the International Republican Institute (IRI), found 80 percent of the more than 1,900 respondents saying they were likely to vote, a rate that has held roughly steady for months.

The 64 percent who said they were "very likely" to vote represented a dip of about seven percentage points from a November survey, while those "somewhat likely" to vote jumped five points.

The IRI, which is funded by Congress through the National Endowment for Democracy, commissioned the poll, which surveyed Iraqis in all but two of the country's 18 provinces. Poor security made two in the far north, Nineveh and Dohuk, inaccessible. Nineveh includes the volatile city of Mosul.

The face-to-face interviews were conducted from Dec. 26, 2004, through Jan. 7, 2005. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

(more)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002156526_iraqvote21.html

[htuttle]

1. Oh, like I'd believe anything from the IRI, aka Coups R' Us

I'm sure they took the money for the poll, but I highly doubt they actually conducted it.

[rockedthevoteinMA]

14. Exactly n/t

[BR_Parkway]

2. "Although early exit polls showed others winning, Jeb Bush has now

been declared the winner in a last minute surge of voters. Join us at 10 for full details."

[daleo]

8. It will turn out exit polls in Iraq aren't accurate

For some reason, not one of the the tens of millions of Allawi voters will choose to participate in exit polls. So, when his "vote" and his exit poll numbers don't jibe, it will be quite understandable, just like in the U.S. presidential election.

[bullimiami]

12. no. exit polls in iraq will show the result they are planning for

as will the vote tally. they have total control of the machinery so it is a done deal.

[daleo]

19. Good point.

Exit polls will say "Iraqi voters are 100% thrilled by the occupation", though.

[BR_Parkway]

17. With the current and anticipated level of violence, I wouldn't stick

around to answer some pollster's questions about how often I went to church and what was the reason I voted. No way in hell.

[balta1701]

3. The IRI

First of all, do you actually trust the International Republican Institute? They're the same ones who did that poll Bush cited saying Iraqis were more optimistic about the future than Americans.

Second, even if the poll is accurate and a huge number of Iraqis plan to vote, as we noted yesterday, in a place like Mosul, they have roughly for every 30,000 eligible voters. (And you thought the lines in Ohio were bad). Even if the entire country turns out to vote, there simply isn't the infrastructure to support it.

And third - does anyone actually expect that the election date will be quiet in terms of attacks? If you're standing in a 20,000 person line to vote, you're not exactly secure. The insurgents have known that day has been coming for 6 months. Take a guess what day any insurgent would want to set his bomb off if he were going to launch an attack.

[Gloria]

4. LOW TURNOUT FOR IRAQI VOTER REGISTRATION (UAE)

From the current World Media Watch....

Not many interested Iraqis in Kuwait, apparently.....


1//Gulf News Online, United Arab Emirates Published: 20/1/2005, 07:59

http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/NationNF.asp?ArticleID=148528



LOW TURNOUT FOR IRAQI VOTER REGISTRATION (UAE)

By Bassam Za'za', Staff Reporter Dubai :



Of the more than 100,000 Iraqis living in the UAE, only 900 signed up to vote on the first day of registration.



On the second and third registration days, which were Tuesday and yesterday, unofficial observers estimated that more than 2,500 Iraqis registered.



The Out-of-Country Voting (OCV) Programme through which Iraqis in the UAE are voting is being conducted by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM).



"During the first two days, the registration process was steady but not overwhelming," Mike Burke, Head of the IOM OCV operation in the UAE, told Gulf News.



"I believe
people were waiting for the holidays to come. Generally, the atmosphere showed that people were happy and optimistic. Many of them have been waiting for free elections for years. Some people who failed to bring two types of ID weren't allowed to register. They were asked to obtain two IDs and return for the registration."



(SNIP)



A cross-section of UAE-based Iraqis spoke to Gulf News regarding the whole election process.

MORE

[jim3775]

5. If a right wing think tank says so, it must be true. n/t

[jswordy]

6. They may intend to vote but...

If driving is banned during the 3 days of the election period (which was the government's intent), and if they do not appear TWICE for the registration process (once for ID, then once again to pick up their voting papers), and if they do not have a polling place convenient to their home (as has been reported in the news media to be the No. 1 complaint), they will not vote. And that doesn't even count in any suppression effort by the insurgents.

There have been news stories about how poorly Iraqis understand the procedure required to vote, and that surely means droves who want to vote will be turned away on election day because they lack proper paperwork.

This all works in favor of the powers that be, who want a large turnout ("see how many came?") but a much smaller number of qualified ballots so that they will be better ensured of being installed.

Once the election is over, it will almost surely be denounced as inadequate by the opposition. Then it will be back to business as usual, Iraq style.

[LynnTheDem]

7. Wow. What a total pile of pure BULLSHIT.

But hey, it's what republicans do. They LIE.

[Just Me]

9. I wonder if they receive government funding, too.

I note that the military quotes IRI surveys/polls.

[htuttle]

15. The IRI is funded by...

...the Orwellian-named 'National Endowment for Democracy', a government agency that has probably funded more coups than any other entity in the history of the world.

You might also have seen them mentioned in relation to funding the Haiti coup plotters, and the Venezeulan 'opposition', for example.

[jmcgowanjm]

10. the Iraqis (I heard 60%) apparently think they're voting for president

During a TV appearance Monday, (Arizona, Rep. Jim)Kolbe was less than
optimistic about the scheduled Jan. 30 elections in Iraq
actually taking place.
Along with serious security concerns and questions of
whether the Sunnis will participate, Kolbe told CNN's
Judy Woodruff that in his recent trip there many Iraqis didn't
even know what they'll be asked to vote
on.
"A lot of work still needs to be done, just to educate the
Iraqis," Kolbe said. "We found when we were there a lot of
the Iraqis apparently think they're voting for president and,
of course, this is voting for a constitutional convention
that's going to draft the constitution for the country.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0109azindc09.html

HaHaHA, jokes on them!

[bullimiami]

11. maybe they dont realize the system is rigged.

only a Bushco rubber stamped candidate will be allowed to win this thing. Then they can start creating new Iraqi law that eliminates all liability by the rich and powerful and allows the rape to continue.

[jswordy]

13. Iraq vote at risk of inflaming the region

<snip> ...the elections are also likely to be deeply flawed in terms of security, participation and transparency. The UN has relatively few staff in place. Iraqi poll organisers are quitting due to intimidation.

Even if they want to vote, many among the Sunni Arab minority may not dare, said Rime Allaf, a Middle East expert at Chatham House. "The elections will not produce a credible government," she predicted.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1395266,00.html

[Guns Aximbo]

16. Just not in Iraq.

The majority of voters, I speculate, will be living in countries other than Iraq. This, in my oppinion, skew that issue. Many of these people have been living in Western Countries for many years.

[Canuckistanian]

18. The expatriate absentee voting rate is really low

I just heard this morning that ex-pat Iraqi's are staying away in droves. They cite the instability and the involvement of the US as reasons to distrust the result.