Rep. Conyers responds to Mitofsky "report"

[deacon2]

Open Letter to Warren Mitofsky and Larry Rosin from Representative John Conyers, Jr.
by Representative John Conyers, Jr.
January 20, 2005

January 20, 2005

Warren Mitofsky
Mitofsky International
1776 Broadway - Suite 1708
New York, NY 10019

Larry Rosin
President
Edison Media Research
6 W. Cliff St.
Somerville, NJ 08876


Dear Mr. Mitofsky and Mr. Rosin:

        I have reviewed the internal report you issued yesterday concerning your exit polling in the 2004 election, and, unfortunately, it has not caused my concerns and questions regarding the significant discrepancies between your polling data and the final electoral results to diminish.

        In particular, I would note that there are a number of concerns with the explanations you posited in your internal report that  do not credibly account for the unprecedented five point differential between your exit polls and the reported results.  As I am sure you know, Professor Steven Freeman of the University of Pennsylvania has determined that such a differential was of a less than 1 in a 1000 likelihood -  virtually impossible as a statistical matter. 

<the rest here>:

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1112

[quiet.american]

1. Rep. Conyers --

-- :yourock: :dem:

[Just Me]

2. I anticipate that, the raw data is VERY damning.

Hence, there will be total resistence to ever coughing it up.

[tandem5]

4. problem is if they release it... it probably will be fixed "raw" data nt

[lonestarnot]

16. Must be ripped from their hands. It is a must!

[tandem5]

3. yeah baby! nt

[PallasAthena]

5. WOW! Thank you, Rep. Conyers!!!!

[barb162]

6. Conyers is terrific!

[chiffon]

7. Representative John Conyers, Jr. ---A big "Thank You"

He is earnestly crossing the t's and dotting the i's with regard to pursuing a tangible explanation of this MAJOR guage of voting trends that has yet to be addressed in a coherent manner. I anxiously await their response(s).

[melissinha]

8. I LOVE YOU!

Conyers is the one person to really get to the heart of the matter in his correspondence. His writing style and direct approach is well.. exquisite if could be described that way...

[Emillereid]

9. I totally agree. Mitofsky's explanation is horse-hockey.

To answer the basic question of who one just voted for could be asked by a 12 year old -- and be accurate. And I can't for a second figure out a reason that a Bush voter would be more reluctant to reveal their vote -- unless they were suddenly overcome by sorrow and shame. Assuming that their conscience and good sense had not suddenly convulsed just after coming out of the polling booth and assuming they were no more reluctant to reveal their vote than had people who'd voted for Dole or Bush I in previous election when the exit polling was more accurate -- this so called explanation isn't. Oversampling of women is generally the case for day time exit polling -- which is corrected for with very simple distribution statistics. Their claim that their program made a mistake is incredulous. The maxim of good science is that generally the simplest explanation is usually the best, I propose the following explanation: the exit polls were right; that something about George Bush in the election changes the exit poll results and that something is probably fraud.
 

[Igel]

10. I'd love to know how Conyers would deal with a 47% non-response rate.

For that matter, I'd love to know how M. deals with it.

Let's see ... raw data ... precinct X, 29% Bush, 28% Kerry, 43% "unknown". Precinct Y, 23% Bush, 25% Kerry, 52% unknown. Yessiree, that's right handy data.

But seriously ... no model, no use.

[Pam-Moby]

11. Go Conyers!!

If he keeps digging, the repugs are not going to be happy with what he is going to dig up.

[corbett]

12. Kicking For The Truth

Conyers truly improves with each passing day.

[Lizzie Borden]

13. Kick

:kick:

[PurrgirlRivka]

14. Is this the raw data?

Found this...think it may be the raw data that was leaked a few weeks ago..

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/

[Vidar]

15. Conyers is what make me proudest of my state.

[fshrink]

17. 1 in 1000... Sadly, that's also the proportion of

courage, honesty and, I think, of real political sense.

[Barkley]

18. Why were exit polls right in AZ, MI, IA, NM, ME, IL & wrong in OH. & FL.?

Why were the polls more accruate in paper ballot states than in states that used electronic voting?

Why would people in FL and OH mislead exit polsters while the people in AZ, MI, ME and IL did not?

[intheflow]

19. Tell me, why aren't we planning the Conyers/Boxer '08 ticket now?

Seemingly the only two Democrats in DC with any convictions at all.

[Guns Aximbo]

20. I don't have faith

that it will make one bit of difference. nothing will be done.

(look out! the sky is falling)