STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY SEPT 17....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 17, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 495
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 303
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 278 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 336 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 178
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 662
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 16, 2003

Dow 9,567.34 +118.53 (+1.25%)
Nasdaq 1,887.25 +41.55 (+2.25%)
S&P 500 1,029.32 +14.51 (+1.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.29% +0.05 (+1.08%)
Gold future 374.60 -1.00 (-0.27%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Good Morning Ozy!

How's your son doing? Ear-aches are awful. I hope he's feeling better.

So I've noticed some quarterly numbers coming in these days that are below the already lowered expectations. Hmmm.

Could be an interesting day.

Julie

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Julie.

Thank you for asking. The earache seems to have faded thanks to some drops that contain a topical anesthetic. He slept yesterday afternoon and through the night more than I have ever seen him, waking occasionally to cough and shift position. He is up now looking at pictures and acting normally - very energetic and curious.

I am going to check the numbers now to see what you mean. Just by looking at yesterday's numbers that pivoted on the smoke-and-mirrors yammering of Greenspin, I'll wager that we'll have an interesting day.

I hope everything's doing well with you.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

The Glass is Half Full

Well if the economy is improving, there is no sign of that improvement in the labor market. The Fed is also worried about this development. In the minutes accompanying today’s Open Market Meeting, Fed officials stated, "Spending is firming, although the labor market has been weakening again.” Pricing power for business remains nonexistent. This is keeping consumer prices under control. Policymakers separated today’s outlook into two parts. The outlook for economic growth looks good, but the outlook for prices and the labor market looks weak. The weak pricing outlook is tilting monetary policy in favor towards the additional possibility of another rate cut. In economic terms the glass remains half full. There has been an improvement, but it isn’t big enough to generate any job growth or allow companies to raise prices to cover rising labor and raw material costs.

Foreign Holdings of Treasuries at a Record

Parts of the economy that benefit from excess Fed created liquidity such as housing and the stock market are expected to do well. The Fed will do all it can to keep the mortgage, housing, consumption, stock and bond market bubbles alive through plenty of cheap money. Can they keep the bubble alive until next year's elections are over? Here again that depends on what foreigners do with our greenbacks. The fate of the dollar, the bond market, interest rates and ultimately the U.S. economy now rests in the hands of foreign investors. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries now exceed 46%. The U.S. is mortgaging its future and the primary mortgage holder has become Asian central banks.

Money Madness

The markets responded in bubble-like fashion today after the Fed announced that it would keep interest rates at 45-year lows. Speculators coming into the futures pit pumped up the major indexes in the last hour and half of trading. The main reason for the market's gains was attributed to investors who now believe that economic and profit growth will accelerate. Nothing has changed from the last Fed meeting. No one expected rates to rise or for the Fed to lower them. What money managers were optimistic about is that the Fed will continue print billions--if not trillions--of money out of thin air into the economy and the financial system to keep all the various bubbles inflated. One money manager made a comment today that expresses the view held by most professional investors, “The Fed won’t raise rates until inflation and hiring picks up.” If money velocity falls faster, the Fed will print more money. If that doesn’t work, they will look at extra-ordinary means of making cash worthless, from dropping money out of helicopters to a carry tax on money held on deposit. Nothing is out of the realm as the Fed will get more desperate in the months ahead when present policy measures run out of steam. The Fed is hell-bent on reflation, which means that the prices of goods and services you need are going to go higher. It also means you’re going to be seeing higher gold and silver prices over the next year. We will know over the next year whether present monetary polices will lead towards a depressionary crash or hyperinflation. Maybe we will see both. We truly are living in historic times. Not since the days of John Law in 17th century France have we ever seen this degree of monetary madness.

more to this...

[Maeve]

3. Well-timed toon!

Good morning, all, and here's hoping Little Ozy's ear-ache is better. Reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits due out shortly...re-financing is down, despite the dip in rates, but new mortgages are still hanging in there (last gasp for the housing market? Maybe?) See story here:http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/17/pf/yourhome/mortgage_apps.reut/index.htm

Yesterday was sooooo cheerful, I would expect a drop today. Isabel has calmed down a bit, but still capable of doing quite a bit of damage. We shall see, we shall see.

[JNelson6563]

5. remember that mention of re-fis

in the wrap-up not long ago? Said that re-fi's were down 80% from June (or was it May?). Ouch.

I gotta wonder with the world crashing down around us and the DOW up 118 pts. yesterday.......counterintuitive doesn't scratch the surface.

Julie

[ozymandius]

7. Re-fi's down 80% from May

You're right about counter-intuitive market performance. It may take a quarter for people to absorb the new reality of the real estate market. Construction permits are down too. My intuition tells me that we are in 'wait-and-see' mode.

About the huge gains - the stock markets are a casino these days. You'll find neither constancy nor reason there, IMO.

[Maeve]

11. Housing starts down, building permits up

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/17/news/economy/housing_starts/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Construction on new homes in the United States slowed in August from July's red-hot pace, the government said Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said the pace of housing starts fell 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.82 million units, after rising a revised 2.6 percent to 1.89 million units in July. Economists, on average, expected housing starts to drop to a 1.83 million-unit pace, according to Briefing.com.<snip>

Building permits, a more leading indicator of demand for new homes, rose 4.8 percent in August to an annual rate of 1.89 million units from a revised 1.8 million in July. Economists expected permits to be flat, according to Briefing.com.

U.S. stock market futures had little reaction to the report, continuing to trade lower, pointing to a negative opening on Wall Street. Treasury bond prices rose

[ze_dscherman]

4. Nobel Prize winner Stieglitz: US economic folly should worry us all

SNIP

Three things are worth noting here. First, America's deficits are certain to sop up vast amounts of the world's pool of savings. But the world will eventually recover from the current slowdown, and that shortage of savings will become important. It will mean higher real interest rates, lower investment and lower growth, all of which will be particularly costly for developing countries.

Second, America's huge trade deficit may be a source of global instability. Will the world continue to finance this deficit willingly, to put its money into a country with a demonstrable lack of competence in macroeconomic management (to say nothing of the corporate, banking and accounting scandals)?

What happens if global investors decide to change their portfolio mix, shifting slightly from US assets? A weak Europe and skittishness about emerging markets have been American strengths, but how long can the US rely on the weakness of others?

Third, in searching for others to blame, America may again enter an era of protectionism, as it did under Reagan. Bush may trumpet free markets, just as Reagan did, but just as he may exceed Reagan in fiscal irresponsibility, so he may outflank Reagan in trade hypocrisy.


SNIP

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1043573,0

[JNelson6563]

8. scary article

Very insightful. The broader the picture the worse it gets. No wonder the misAdministration only wants to look close up at a tree or two. They'd run away in horror if they ever stepped back to take it all in.

Thanks for posting this good read.

Julie

[ze_dscherman]

10. Happy to be able to contribute once in a while

... to the must-read-thread here!

Martin

[ozymandius]

9. R.J. Reynolds to Cut Staff by 40 Percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Cigarette company R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Inc. RJR.N on Wednesday said it would reduce its work force by 40 percent to cut costs as it combats competition from low-cost brands.

just a blurb

[Maeve]

12. And here we go!

Dow 9,539.27 -28.07 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,883.68 -3.57 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,027.28 -2.04 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.250% -0.041

[JNelson6563]

13. real quick turn-around

An about face. Happened lickety split too!

9:53


Dow 9,588.04 +20.70 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,890.52 +3.27 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,030.49 +1.17 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.240% -0.051


Julie

[Maeve]

16. 10:59 and it's a thrill ride today

Dow 9,566.92 -0.42 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 1,885.94 -1.31 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,027.74 -1.58 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263% -0.028

[Shadoobie]

14. Insider Trading

I saw this article in my paper this past weekend about insider trading. I may have missed it if this has already been discussed. It was originally published in the Dallas Morning News.

--snip--
"For every $1 that insiders purchased in their own stock, they sold a whopping $44.53, according to the report.

The last time the reading was this acutely bearish was in May 2001, when for every $1 that insiders purchased they sold $40.90. In the 12 months that followed, the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 15 percent.

"Insider activity at these ridiculous bearish levels is a big red flag," said Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at Joseph Stevens & Co. in New York.

"I think it's a big warning for investors, especially those who are putting fresh money into the market while insiders are taking money out."

Suttmeier said he wishes executives would be asked to explain their lack of enthusiasm for buying their own shares, particularly when they're presenting rosy outlooks in TV interviews."
--snip--

Link: http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthtribune/business/6761915.htm

More details from the Philiadelphia Enquirer (9/2/03)
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/personal_finance/6671003.htm

Here is a accompanying editorial article from an investment manager (9/17/03)

"One day, it’s recession; another day, it’s recovery. Some days are better than others. Some days are real bad. Regardless, at the end of the day, neither rhyme nor reason can be given to what has happened in the financial markets."

http://www.nashvillecitypaper.com/index.cfm?section_id=10&screen=news&news_id=26618

I figure that either we are on the verge of another sustained loss in the stock market or the executives are liquidating assets to donate to the Got Our Payback party in the upcoming election cycle. Either way doesn't look good for the economy.

-Greg

[JNelson6563]

15. food for thought

This is definitely something to take into consideration IMO. There was talk of this here recently but it needs to be talked about. Investors should know what is going on, as well as the general public. We all have a stake in the economy, whether we own stocks or not.

The more we see of this in the press the better. Thanks for posting it.

Julie

[mrsteve]

23. I'd heard that insiders were dumping a lot of stock...

But Jeez - 44.5 to 1 sell to buy ratio? And the same executives continue to announce layoffs.

Okay, so maybe all the happy talk about the "improving economy" is not being beleved by the true major decision makers in the US business community.

Maybe old "in an undisclosed location" Cheney needs to call a come-to-Jesus meeting to get the US business tastemakers on script, less *'s election plans go up in smoke.

[Coventina]

17. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hi everyone,

Today's reading is INNOCENCE, no changing lines. I'll post a quote from Ching, "The time demands an alignment with the flow of the cosmos. This adjustment must be made before further action is taken, otherwise you will begin to make mistakes."

My interpretation is that Ching is saying to look at the broad picture, and base your actions on that.

I'm going to predict a wobbly day in the markets, but I think they will end up down.

[Maeve]

18. 12:25 update w/ a side order of blather

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
12:00PM: The major averages have spent the entirety of the morning not making much headway one way or another as buyers and sellers alike have hesitated to take charge of the session... This indecisiveness is resulting from the juxtaposition of investors' fears of overextended valuations exacerbated by yesterday's advance, as well as the onset of the September warning season, with the underlying bullish trend in stocks and the Fed's commitment to maintaining its accommodative policy for as long as necessary per yesterday's policy directive...
This lack of commitment from investors has forced the major averages to vacillate around the flat line through most of the morning in the midst of limited sector leadership...

Dow 9,582.57 +15.23 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,891.67 +4.42 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,029.57 +0.26 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% -0.082

[JNelson6563]

19. 12:55 and till sunny

It's all good.


Dow 9,591.83 +24.49 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,892.46 +5.21 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,030.34 +1.02 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% -0.080

Julie

[Maeve]

20. 1:18 and clouds are forming

Dow 9,574.01 +6.67 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,888.85 +1.60 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,028.12 -1.20 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% -0.102

:shrug:

[mrsteve]

21. Seems to have started sliding about 40 minutes ago

Wonder what news hit that we haven't heard about - or did this morning's enthusiasm just kind of wane instead.

God afternoon to all marketeers. It's lunch time here in the Chicago burbs, and for the first time in about three days I have:

a) time to eat lunch
b) time to post :-)

So hopefully I'll chip in here off and on in the next hour.

[mrsteve]

22. 1:45 numbers - slipping 'neath the waves

Starting to drop below the open numbers:

Dow 9,565.51 -1.83 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,882.48 -4.77 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,026.78 -2.54 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.180% -0.111

Yahoo Financial is not happy:
"1:30PM: A reversal in the influential financial, particularly brokerage, sector has undermined the market's advance and as a result the indices are on a swing lower, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in negative territory and the Dow barely holding above the flat line... Although the indices are weakening and investors' conviction is not overwhelmingly strong, it's noteworthy that the dropping interest rates have provided a measure of support for the market of late... It was only on September 2 that the 10-year note had reached a yield of 4.6%..."

[Maeve]

25. 2:09 and a bit redder

Dow 9,555.34 -12.00 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,879.54 -7.71 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,026.03 -3.29 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.155% -0.136

[mrsteve]

24. 2:00 - two more hours, and the tide is downward

Slowly sinking

Dow 9,551.62 -15.72 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,878.73 -8.52 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,025.61 -3.70 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.160% -0.131

And Yahoo finance says things are "slumping"

"2:00PM: Selling pressure intensified in the last half hour, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slumping to new session lows and the Dow nearing the lower part of its earlier trading range... Among the sectors sponsoring the decline are the semiconductor, networking, drug, brokerage, transportation, retail, housing, and oil services sectors...
The weakness in the latter coincides with a -$0.58 decline in the price of crude oil to $26.98/bbl, a four-month low, which ensued following a Department of Energy report indicating that record imports last week boosted nationwide inventories and increased the supplies by 3.1 mln barrels to 279.3 mln barrels... Separately, it's noteworthy that banking shares are maintaining their positioning in the green, indicating that losses in the broader market should remain limited..."
Yahoo Finance Updates

[mrsteve]

26. 2:55 - and the markets going boing back up

Dow 9,556.60 -10.74 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,881.78 -5.47 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,026.54 -2.78 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% -0.109

Yahoo finance:
"2:30PM: The indices are continuing to slip, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq setting new session lows, as concerns regarding overextended valuations and multiple earnings warnings from the morning, including one from the Dow component DuPont (DD 42.56 -1.41) to about $1.60 (Reuters Research consensus $1.80), incited selling pressure... As a result, the vast majority of the sectors are now in the red, with the only groups securing gains being the disk drive, biotech, healthcare, and gold groups..."

[Maeve]

27. 3:06 and what goes up...

Bounces a helluva lot! (Feels like a tennis game, huh, mrsteve?)

Dow 9,544.59 -22.75 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,880.57 -6.68 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,025.42 -3.90 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.205% -0.086

[JNelson6563]

30. 3:35 much the same

last minute mireacle today? Or no?


Dow 9,551.49 -15.85 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,882.84 -4.41 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,026.18 -3.14 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.191% -0.100


Julie

[mrsteve]

32. PPT - ahhh, we need a cleanup in aisle three...

Okay, guys, PPT, where you at? We need some help here. :evilgrin:

Good to see you check in Rad! Hail the founder and guiding spirit of the daily stock market thread. :toast:

[radfringe]

28. DAMN! I miss this thread and you all

Hi all,

Been busy past few days, battening down the hatches for Hurricane Isabel. Expecting some wind, lots of rain in my neck of the woods. Big worry is flooding, but my partner and I live ON TOP of a mountain.

Back in '99 when Floyd came through, we lost power for 3 days, and since we have well water, the well pump was also out for 3 days. Soooo, this time we've stocked up on drinking water and also have several large buckets of water for flushing the toilet. Just a couple of things to bring into the garage tonight and I think we are all set. Won't jinx things by saying "bring 'em on" :evilgrin:

Meanwhile, I see that Hurricane Dubya is still causing extensive economic damage all across the country. :evilgrin:

Talking head blather is all bright and cheerful... don't worry things will pick up in the fourth quarter. If it sounds familar, this is what they have been saying for the past 11 quarters...

Magic 8-Ball doesn't see any job improvement in the near future. Some numbers may look better but that will be for a real short time - if stores do some hiring for the holidays, followed by layoffs.

Edwards had a good line at the Harking Steak Fry - "it's not an economic recovery if you don't have a job"

Take care everyone, be safe for the coming storm

[JNelson6563]

29. Hey Rad!!

We sure miss you too!! I hope you aren't blown off the mountain.

And yes "Hurricane Dubya" is causing havoc, as usual.

The jobs situation will remain, IMO, for at least a year. I believe holiday hiring will not outweigh the cuts elsewhere. I see that as a likely wash.

Let us know how you survive Isabel! :hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

31. Take care, rad!

Get those hatches battened good...amazing what damage a bunch of wind can do! And then there's the hurricane...

[mrsteve]

33. At the bell - still slightly underwater

A little sideways action in a set range for the last 2 hours was all she wrote.

Dow 9,545.65 -21.69 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,883.10 -4.15 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,025.97 -3.35 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.191% -0.100

[mrsteve]

34. Yahoo Finance final quotes

"Close: The major averages spent the bulk of the session not straying too far away from the flat line as buyers and sellers alike hesitated to get behind the wheel and drive the action decisively one way or another...
This hesitancy resulted from the juxtaposition of investors' fears of overextended valuations exacerbated by yesterday's advance, as well as the onset of the September warning season, with the underlying bullish trend in stocks, the Fed's commitment to maintaining its accommodative policy for as long as necessary per yesterday's policy directive, and the decline in interest rates over the last two weeks... This lack of conviction on the part of investors was also reflected in the modest volume totals, as well as in limited sector leadership... While most of the sectors spent the session chopping around with small gains or losses, several groups managed to accomplish changes of over 1%... Among these were the disk drive and gold sectors to the plus-side and the oil services and housing sectors to the downside...

The retreat of the latter was particularly striking on the back of this morning's economic data, which spoke to the continued strength of the housing sector with the Housing Starts report (at 1.82 mln) and Building Permits report (at 1.886 mln) both of which checked in near record levels and roughly in-line to above the consensus, as well as the Mortgage Bankers Association Index, which showed that applications to buy a home rose 5.8% in the latest week... Elsewhere, the bond market closed the session near its session highs, with the 10-year note up +24/32, bringing its yield down to 4.18%..."

Yahoo Finance Marke Update

See everyone tomorrow - same Bat time, same Bat channel.