UPDATE: Thursday Hurricane Isabel thread: Strike Probabilites

[DemVet]

[Don_G]

1. Here's Another Dynamic Gif

Probability that Isabel will strike between 11 AM and 2 PM tomorrow during high tide. The storm surge will add from 7 to 15 feet to the high tide levels along the coast. Pennsylvania and the areas surrounding the path can expect high winds and from 6 to 10 inches of rain.

[SoCalDem]

4. The outer bands are already hitting..hold on tight, you guys!!

[Don_G]

2. Latest Advisory

AXNT20 KNHC 172353 2003260 2352
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 17 SEP 2003
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ISABEL CENTER NEAR 31.1N 73.3W AT 17/2100 UTC OR ABOUT
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED 90 KT GUSTS 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE HUNTER DATA
SHOW THAT THE SURFACE WIND SPEED MIGHT BE AT LEAST 100 KT.
THE DROPSONDE DATA HOWEVER DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SAME ARGUMENT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME FAVORABLE...AS WAS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IN FACT THE CIRCULATION
ALOFT IS STRENGTHENING. THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS ARE LIMITING THE
ABILITY OF ISABEL TO COMPLETELY RESPOND TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT SHOULD
THERE BE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ISABEL COULD
QUICKLY REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS. THE TRACK FORECAST CARRIES
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
SPEED OF THE HURRICANE STILL IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ISABEL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION...INCLUDING A LARGE EXTENT OF
DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE...IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE PRECISE LANDFALL LOCATION...SINCE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE LANDFALL POINT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM
RADIUS OF CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN
120-180 NM RADIUS OF CENTER ELSEWHERE. CURVED BANDING OF CLOUDS
WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND ISABEL AT LEAST ONE TIME.
TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE WAS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FOUR HOURS AGO IN SENEGAL
AND PARTS OF GAMBIA AND SW MAURITANIA HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...NOW
REDUCED TO ONLY SOME REMAINING CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER
LAND IN SENEGAL/COASTAL SENEGAL...AND ONE CLUSTER IN THE WATER
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE WAS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH GOOD ROTATION AND PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION.
IT IS BEING NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH JUST WEST OF IT. STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS WAVE DISORGANIZED. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR
UPPER-AIR TIME SECTIONS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
SOLELY ON EXTRAPOLATION. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION 8N3W 6N19W 9N42W 10N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120-180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS EAST OF 14W...AND WEST OF 22W.
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO...A WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IN CENTRAL MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG 22N TO
WESTERN CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...COVERS THE GULF NORTH OF 23N/24N
EAST OF 92W...OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA.
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS WEST OF 92W...IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER WEAK WITH
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO 15N70W...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND W OF 75W. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
SOUTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ISABEL OVER THE ATLANTIC AROUND A RIDGE
JUST NE OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO
NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE ATLC IS A
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE SETUP WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A SHARP TROUGH IN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 29N48W 23N54W 14N54W
7N54W. A BROAD RIDGE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC...THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER REMAINS HURRICANE ISABEL CENTERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. ISABEL IS IN
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC AND WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE CURTAILING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH ISABEL HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ATLC OCEAN THROUGH 30N80W TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W...TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR
29N91.5W. NO DEEP CONVECTION.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT IS ONLY A SMALL
RIPPLE IN THIS MORE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS GOES FROM HURRICANE ISABEL TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...SE CUBA TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/NE NICARAGUA BORDER.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH 30N31W TO
29N40W TO 27N48W TO 25N52W. LINE OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS WITHIN 30-60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH EAST OF 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W.

ATLC RIDGE THROUGH 32N19W TO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 27N32W TO 26N43W.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DISSIPATING CONVECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG...
WEST OF 92W...HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE
HOURS...IN THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA...
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...IN AN AREA OF BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SIDE FROM HISPANIOLA TO
CUBA...IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM HURRICANE ISABEL
TO CENTRAL AMERICA...HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
4-5 HOURS.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W...JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE ISABEL-CENTRAL
AMERICA SURFACE TROUGH.
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
CONVECTION WITH HURRICANE ISABEL.
$$
MT
wxtlist.k: done

[electricmonk]

3. I wish they would upgrade

Their computers so everything isn't in all caps. That's been bugging me for years, everytime there's any sort of severe weather predicted you have to read one of these bulletins in all caps and get a headache in the process.

[expatriot]

5. It's like HOTSTUD_943 from Yahoo! Chat is giving you the forecast....

[DemVet]

6. Wind Map

[Chico Man]

7. NOAA 5AM discussion (in lower case!)

000
wtnt43 knhc 180857
tcdat3
hurricane isabel discussion number 49
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 am edt thu sep 18 2003

wsr-88d radar data from morehead city shows what looks like a
classic concentric eyewall formation...with a poorly-defined ring
of convection near the center and a stronger ring 40-50 nm out.
earlier aircraft data indicates that the strongest winds are
associated with the outer ring...and that there is no wind maximum
associated with the inner ring. the last aircraft fix showed a
pressure of 957 mb...and maximum flight level winds during the
mission were 109 kt. the initial intensity remains 90 kt.

isabel is moving 325-330 degrees at about 12 kt. a general
northwestward motion should continue for about 24 hr between the
developing mid/upper-level trough over the southeastern united
states and the deep-layer ridge over the northwestern atlantic.
after that...isabel should turn northward in response to the large
deep-layer trough moving eastward across the northern united
states. all dynamical guidance agrees with this scenario...and the
official forecast track is basically an update of the previous
package.

little change in strength is forecast before landfall...although
there is still a slight chance of slight strengthening. after
landfall...isabel should weaken and gradually become extratropical.

a new aircraft should be arriving at the center shortly.

forecaster beven

forecast positions and max winds

initial 18/0900z 33.1n 74.7w 90 kt
12hr vt 18/1800z 35.0n 76.4w 90 kt...inland
24hr vt 19/0600z 37.9n 78.2w 60 kt...inland
36hr vt 19/1800z 41.4n 78.5w 45 kt...becoming extratropical
48hr vt 20/0600z 47.0n 78.0w 35 kt...inland extratropical
72hr vt 21/0600z 59.5n 72.5w 30 kt...inland extratropical
96hr vt 22/0600z...absorbed by extratropical low

http://www.noaa.gov

[Lexingtonian]

8. sounds like

landfall of the eye between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, more toward Hatteras.

[Northwind]

9. Isabel

has really disappointed me. She totally wussed out. :cry:

[Ripley]

10. You wouldn't say that if it were your home flooded.

Or your relatives that get injured or even killed in the resulting flooding rains and tornadoes and clean up. My cousin lost her entire home (and my grandmothers quilts) during Hugo in Myrtle Beach. My grandfather died in the aftermath of Hazel in the 50's.

I hope you are being sarcastic because if you aren't our country is truly fucked when devastation and destruction of fellow Americans becomes Entertainment.

[SoCalDem]

11. Thank goodness it DID weaken..

CNN "prompter-readers" were visibly distraught yesterday when they realized that Isabel would not strenghten.. I wanted to smack Wolfie.. He was almost pleading with the hurricane expert to tell him that it would regain its category 5 stature again..

What people forget is that an F5 hurricane that hit in such a populated area would be horrific..

An F2 is bad enough,,:(

Try and stay dry, you guys :hi:

[Ripley]

12. Yes, I am appalled by the talking heads.

The first question they ask reporters on scene is "are there people really staying, and how many and will they die?" It seems as tho the weakening of the hurricane is bothering them, because now they might have to go back to discussing Bush's "vulnerabilities" instead of focusing on hurricane death and destruction for weeks.

People don't seem to be very well informed. This thing could push a 40 foot storm surge wave into inland areas! Lots of farmers will lose livestock as well as equipment and homes.

I'm just glad my parents moved inland an hour or so yesterday because their home is on the intracoastal waterway just south of Morehead City where landfall may hit.

[Stuckinthebush]

14. Don Henley's "Dirty Laundry"

comes to mind when I watch the talking heads get excited about destruction.

[JHB]

15. "Irwin Allen Syndrome"...

...is what we call it in my house.

The desire for any dramatic event to take on Disaster Movie proportions (and the disappointment felt when the worst doesn't happen).

[hertopos]

13. The roofer just finshed the repair of bay window roof...

Otherwise, Isable could have worsened the water damage inside seriously.

Anyway, Isabel is already causing a mess in our area. ( I work in DC metro and live in Baltimore. )

I am pissed at my husband boss since he wanted my husband to be in the office this morning though everyone has to leave by early afternoon.

I had to work overtime last night and worked at home last night and am working right now at home. ( I have a 4 month year old baby. This means 'working overtime' always means a mess!! )

I just hope everything will be back to normal by next week. I am lucky to live on the hill in Baltimore city. Lots of people lives near harbor. They are really worried!!

Hertopos

[amazona]

16. my house destroyed by a "wussy" tropical storm

I wonder about your experience of "mere" Cat 1 or 2 Hurricanes. All it took was a tropical storm to destroy my house. Two people were killed by the subsequent tropical storm, Claudette. A full-fledged hurricane is nothing to screw around with.

Isabel will be a killer, just not as big of a killer as the media might have wished for the sound byte machine.