Texas' capacity to generate enough electricity could drop below healthy levels as soon as next year, thanks to companies' market-driven decisions to shut down power plants across the state.
After a huge construction spurt at the start of the decade, Texas had a glut of power-generation capacity. But the recent mothballing and dismantling of older power plants could push supplies to the edge much sooner than expected.
Texas is far from a California-style blackout crisis. But the situation has created a crucial first test of one aspect of the deregulated electric market. Regulators and grid planners are watching carefully to see whether the prospect of higher electricity prices will work to entice generators to build new plants soon.
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If the reserve margin were to shrink, the most serious problems would pop up on the hottest summer days, when the ERCOT grid reaches peak demand.
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