Kurds Move Into 2nd Place in Iraq Vote Count

[leftchick]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050207/wl_nm/iraq_election_dc&cid=574&ncid=1480


The partial results, from some polling centers in 13 of Iraq's 18 provinces, showed that the Shi'ite alliance had around 2.3 million votes, with the Kurds winning around 1.1 million and a bloc led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi on around 620,000.


The election commission says the partial results do not necessarily give a clear picture of the final distribution of the votes.


The partial results include figures for two of Iraq's three Kurdish-ruled northern provinces, and also several southern mainly Shi'ite provinces.


The Shi'ite alliance is widely expected to win by far the most votes in the election, with the Kurds second and Allawi's bloc tipped to come third.

[Stella_Artois]

1. Worst case scenario, for the Bushistas

At least nobody on DU is saying the election was fixed anymore :P

Not by America anyway, by Iran, perhaps.

[Walt Starr]

3. They haven't finished "counting" the votes yet

My guess is there will be a rush of last minute pro-Allawi votes counted in the next couple of days.

[spotbird]

6. That's my thought also.

We'll see, but even for the the gang in Washington, this will be a long shot.

[Sin]

10. Yea

Ya have to give them time to print them up and an collect the names of the dead.

[hadrons]

14. its won't be Allawi ....

the places were he was expected to do well (LOL!!!) have been counted and he fell flat, so even Dumbya ballot-stealing crew couldn't justify how the uncounted areas would go for him

[GHOSTDANCER]

36. No,,, all thats left to do is enter the secrete password

into their Diebold machines. LOL

[spotbird]

5. My money was on Allawi.

I bet the farm. It looks like I'm going to have to depend on privatized Social Security to fund my retirement.

Seriously, the fact that this is a miserable failure from the administration's perspective drives home the point that the Iraqi people hate the occupation. It also means that every objective of the war, both the real and pretend, ended catastrophically.

There is still a part of me that thinks there is some way they will pull this out. Maybe it's the part that thought the American public would see Bush for what he was and rebel in November.

[tabasco]

25. Hahahahaha! Me too !

I'm waiting to see how all this unravels.

Whatever the case, I think the corporate cabal plans to shift the military to guard oil facilities and let the Iraqis operate independently as long as they stay away from the pipelines.

[cthrumatrix]

2. 1500 soldiers die, $300B spent for an Islamic state....? Allawi and the US

will be asked to leave...and the US's true intentions of staying will be made known.

Democracy at work.

[w4rma]

4. Don't forget the 10s of thousands of soldiers who have been maimed. (nt)

[spotbird]

7. There reward is a cut in veterans' benefits.

What more should they want?

[Just Me]

15. And we all know what will happen with Bush's NO EXIT PLAN is known.

:nuke:

There will still be one enemy common to all Iraqis. As much as the neoCONspirators would like a civil war to justify a PERMANENT MILITARY PRESENCE, now that the elections are over, the failure of the U.S. to start winding down the military operations will lead to more coffins covered with U.S. flags.

[Spazito]

8. This is getting VERY interesting...

One thing that keeps coming back to me is this: The US admin and others keep making the point that Sistani is in favour of a secular government but what I think is that Sistani out-played the US and is, in fact, in favour of a theocracy once he has the power. Arabs and the east have been around for thousands of years, invaded and occupied by many, have learned the lessons of patience and pretense and, in the end, have defeated those same occupiers.

I believe, the US has been played and played well by the Shi'ites, they have waited a long time to achieve power and now, thanks to the US, they have it.

As to the Kurds, there is no question their goal is autonomy regardless of what Condi or anyone from the US may 'promise' Turkey.

The question I have is: Has there been a secret agreement between the Kurds and the coming Sistani government regarding northern Iraq?

[cthrumatrix]

9. maybe a deal is done -- US get's oil contracts..they get power

and US citizens get screwed!

[Spazito]

12. I don't know, my gut instincts says those contracts will...

be up for the highest bidder and under the ultimate control of the new Sistani government which may well be playing the waiting game. The highest bidder may NOT, ultimately, be the US and, may indeed, be priced in Euros not greenbacks in time. History in that area leads me to believe that the US are neophytes in this kind of waiting game due to their impatience and, even more so with this bush cabal, their fallibility in believing what they want to hear instead of the cold, hard facts.

[makhno]

17. My gut feeling ...

... is that the Iranians played the US like a fiddle. It'll be interesting to see where the US rhetoric with regard to Iran goes when Sistani's party is confirmed as the winner of the elections. As we saw last year, the Shiite leadership can turn the tap of massive anti-American insurgency on and off at will.

Having 150 thousand troops sitting in a trap isn't the kind of strategic outcome the neocons had in mind when this all started.

[simcha_6]

26. Kurdish Autonomy?

You've got to feel sorry for the Kurds. They support us, don't get mad when we bomb their own troops by accident, and now we're trying to sell them out to Iraq and Turkey. We should really consider the rights of Kurdistan and other de facto states like Somaliland to choose their own fate, instead of dictating their future by the international community, which is too obsessed with protecting their own power and territorial integrity to recognize individual peoples' rights.

Google Somaliland and the Somaliland Policy and Reconstruction Institute (SOPRI) to find out more. Also check out <http://www.sonyoumbrella.blogspot.com/>. Interesting stuff.

I say, if the Kurds want independence, let them have it in Iraq. They had a good measure of independence before we invaded Iraq.

[MADem]

30. The only way they can keep Sistani in line

...is if they put him on the payroll.

And who's to say he won't take their cash for awhile, lay low, get them to downsize the military presence, and then fuck them blue.

Sistani didn't get to be an old man in a hostile environment by being stupid. I think they fail to see how clever he really is. That old cultural hubris at work....

[keithjx]

11. Is this just another excuse?

Iraq won't be "free" until Iran is not impacting them, so just another reason that Iran is the REAL enemy???

KJ

[On the Road]

13. The Percentage of the Total Vote Does Not Really Determine the Winner

since it's a parliamentary system and people were voting for local representative. I think it was expected that most people would vote for candidates of their own ethnic background.

Since turnout was so much much lower in Sunni areas, they will have end up with more representatives than the total will suggest. It will interesting to see who the Sunnis who defied the insurgents and actually went to the polls voted for.

This is actually not a bad idea. Although I don't understand why the parliament doesn't elect a leader directly, but rather votes for a smaller group who chooses the prime minister or president. I assumed that the US felt this would result in a more secular or US-friendly, but I really don't understand how that would happen or what effect it would have.

[davhill]

19. Once the small group is selected

They can be bought . They will pick the US choice for president etc.

[alfredo]

22. The US thought they could buy Osama's insiders with a 25mil

reward, and that didn't work. 50mil hasn't worked either. I don't see the Shia doing things any different. The truly devout Muslim cannot be bought, and I don't see the Shia electing anything other than devout Muslims as their leaders.

[davhill]

27. I hope you're right.

But Osama's protectors are fanatics, not politicians. The Shiites are not necessarily fanatics and they are politicians. Politicians have often been bought.

[alfredo]

31. We don't know if they are politicians, and I guess not many

Iraqis know the particulars of the candidates. Remember, the candidates for office were a secret until right before the voting.

[On the Road]

23. I Suspect That's It

although with the Sistani supporters apparently winning a clear majority, that may be more difficult than previously thought.

[kennetha]

16. Turnout?

Can't tell how high the turnout is, but the fact that the numbers are from 13 of 18 provinces and the fact that the totals are fewer than five million at the moment suggest the turnout might be relatively low.

It's amazing how the press settles on a narrative right away -- Iraq elections overwhelming success vindication for Bush -- and then just sticks with it no matter what the subsequent developments show.

So if this elections leads to a theocracy and then a civil war, we'll still be hearing years later how Bush was "vindicated" by the Iraqi elections.

Fantasies are stubborn things.

[bin.dare]

18. these are the only numbers i have so far ...

... "In Iraq the turnout (according to DEBKA the totally loyal Israeli intelligence website) was closer to forty percent and in Basra (subcontracted to Tony Blair) was no more than 32 percent."

http://www.counterpunch.org/ali02072005.html

[4_Legs_Good]

20. I pray this shows George Jr. and cronies, that this kinda thing doesn't

work... ever!

The problem with positive results in Iraq, like this mostly successful election, is that it will only hearten the Administration (and future administrations) to do this kind of thing again and again. I'm glad to see elections anywhere, but a success here (by which I mean an election that delivers the US exactly what it wants) means 200,000 Iranians dead, 5,000 US servicemen and women, and $1/2T out of my son's pocket. And then on to Syria!

david

[VegasWolf]

21. So the best armed and trained insurgents, the Sunni's, are left pissed

off!

[Igel]

24. Anybody really think that the Shafi'i will accept a Shi'a Shari'a

constitution? Or the Hanafis?

(Which is to say, the Sunni Kurds or the Sunni Arabs)

[The Magistrate]

28. No, They Will Not, Sir

Though of course some individuals in the assembly may well be bribed or coerced into doing so.

There is rum fun ahead: this election is as surely the signal gun for civil war as that of 1860 in the U.S. was. Where geographic and ethnic lines coincide closely with political lines, the thing is well-nigh inevitable....

[Igel]

33. Truly, sir.

I'm not convinced the civil war will escalate; if the Hanafi Arabs cave and take part in the writing of the constitution, some of the insurgent support may wane.

Am I betting this way? No ... the best I can summon forth is to remain non-judgmental. (And that's a struggle.)

[The Magistrate]

35. That Is What Makes Horse Races, Sir

But to my view, three for one on civil war is more investment-grade bond than wager....

It would, of course, be more to my liking were you to be proved correct by events; deaths for no good purpose are something any must be gladdened by an absence of....

[donheld]

29. Are these paper ballots?

Is that why it's taking so long to count them?

[Igel]

32. Yes, they are. All the Diebold comments made by DUers

were either sarcastic or off-base.

They apparently (if NPR is to be trusted) have a truly intricate way of tabulating them. Two people facing each other enter the precinct results into their computer; the results get submitted to another computer, which displays them for a third person to examine. If they agree, the numbers are accepted; if they disagree, the third person examines the precinct report. Lots of polling places. For some reason, it's taking them a long time. Could speculate, won't.

[SoCalDem]

34. * will wish he had waited til Diebold got to Iraq

:)