China Poised to Overtake U.S. in 2020s-Author

[seemslikeadream]

By Paul Eckert, Asia Correspondent | February 8, 2005

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China's unprecedented rise, fueled by foreign investment and technology, has put the Asian giant on a path to surpass the United States economically by 2025, the author of a new book on China said on Tuesday.

U.S. pressure on Chinese authorities to revalue the yuan currency will bring only a brief respite from the fusion of cheap-but-skilled labor, imported technology and economies of scale that make China so competitive, said Oded Shenkar.

His book "The Chinese Century," represents neither a "China-bashing book" nor the 1980s "Japan as Number One genre," the Ohio State University business management professor said.

"The rise of China is a watershed," Shenkar told Reuters in an interview. "I compare it to the rise of the United States in the late 19th century."
more
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/02/09/china_poised_to_overtake_us_in_2020s_author/

[Eurobabe]

1. I said this 10 yrs.ago, I don't remember where I heard it

but the CHI of Asia/Pacific is on the rise. Ours is on the wane :(

[Minstrel Boy]

2. The United States needs a Gorbachev who knows what time it is.

I don't think the world will be so lucky.

[VegasWolf]

3. Humm, that's in about 10 years. That's way too long with bush

at the helm, look how he has screwed up the country in just
four years. China will be dominant by the last year of
the chimp's reign.

[Mountainman]

4. We will be a third world country by then. Only the rich rulling class

and the working poor.

The wealthy in this country are the ones backing the Bush agenda. They are going to drive this country into the ground for there short term wealth building desires.

[Massacure]

5. My math says 2013 assuming China keeps its 9% growth, and the U.S. 3%.

Thats based on GDP and not military though.

[VegasWolf]

6. Military's a wash, they have ICBMs. Bushco won't attack a nuclear

power.

[rayofreason]

20. math?

I don't get the same numbers as you do. In 2003 China's GDP was $1.4 trillion. A 9% annual compounded growth rate would result in a GDP of $3.3 trillion in 2013. US GDP in 2003 was $11.1 trillion. An annual growth rate of 3% will give $14.9 trillion over the same 10 years, 4.5 times the Chinese economy.

With these growth projections even by 2025 China's economy is smaller than the US economy. And at that point a major demographic problem will emerge as the total population reaches its maximum and begins to rapidly age. Who knows how Chinese society will deal with it. Guess I'll have to read to book to see what the support for the argument is that by 2025 China will overtake the US.

By the way, the reemergence of China on the world stage has been forseen by many. Napoleon is quoted as saying "When China awakes, the world will tremble." Certainly throughout pre-industrial history there was a rough equivalence between Europe and China, an equivalence that was momentarily (on historical timescales) disrupted by the early European (Western) transition to industrialism. In the long run, China's relative weakness vis-a-vis the West will be seen as an anomolous period, and China will reemerge as a major power, a single-country civilization with vast resources. But remember what happened in Europe when Germany emerged in the 19th century.

[Massacure]

31. CIA World Factbook says $6.449 trillion in 2003.

Edit: I guess I should add the link

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

[rayofreason]

34. GDP

I see now how you arrived at your figure - you used the purchasing power parity value for GDP. That number gives $5000 per capita income for China. This number has to be wrong. Large parts of China are still rural and very poor, Shanghai notwithstanding. And even in Shanghai, I would be surprised if the per capita income was $5000, at least from what I saw 2 years ago. And the yuan/dollar exchange rate did not seem too inflated.

Other sources give numbers more in line with what I quoted.

http://www.reuters.co.in/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp;:420a50d5:c84935112388a681?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_IN&storyID=7583039

http://www.chinaconsulate.org.nz/eng/xwdt/t112575.htm

http://english.people.com.cn/200212/08/eng20021208_108119.shtml

http://www.digis.net/webnews/wed/bm/Uchina.R_Ui_FJT.shtml

[Lexingtonian]

7. we shall see....

I'd doubt very highly that China will get that far without starting to break up, or fleeing forward from internal problems into a brief military quasidictatorship that will provoke a confrontation with the West.

Seeing things from purely an economic perspective...might be a bit limiting.

[idlisambar]

15. Why would China break up?

I have not heard that the political situation was thaat unstable. Continued economic growth would probably have an effect of strengthening the state.

[Terran]

18. The only way China will "break up"

is the same reason the US and other nations will fall apart--environmental chaos making governing impossible. Othwerwise, I think it's very doubtful China would go the same way the USSR did, because they continue to exercise such firm control over the country's culture, despite all the apparant changes. They haven't let things run away from government control the way Russia did at first. And the Chinese hate chaos, they had enough of that in their recent history to know very well what it's like.

The Chinese Communist Party still has the 'Mandate of Heaven', and with that they will continue to stay in power--unless forces beyond their control dictate otherwise.

[VegasWolf]

8. China's average middle class citizens are already affluent. They

have the highest rate of elective plastic surgeries anywhere
in the world. They have a strong manufacturing base and
will have none of this RayGun voodo economic trickle down
theory that georgie and snow are pushing. See what happens
when a nation has real leaders, instead of someone who struggles
through My Pet Goat and graduates from Yale with the lowest
GPA in the history of the school.

[TahitiNut]

14. China's Gini Ratio was 0.40 in 2001.

That's not the Gini Ratio of even a socialist economy, let alone the "worker's paradise" foretold by Lenin. They're China Inc. - a government corporation. Pure fascism. They tolerate 'competition' as mere window dressing. That Gini Ratio does not portray a healthy middle class. France, Canada, and Japan have healthy middle classes. Mexico, China, and the U.S. do not.

[Vladimir]

17. Out of interest

where does the China data come from?

[TahitiNut]

19. Indirectly from CIA World Factbook, December 2003

I often obtain such stats at http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph-T/eco_dis_of_fam_inc_gin_ind&int=50

[Vladimir]

21. Just because AFAIK, poverty data on China is notoriously unreliable

although I have not qualms with your characterisation of China as anything but Communist. Have you read Reddy & Pogge's essay on the whole 'world poverty levels' subject?

[TahitiNut]

24. Their argument that poverty is underestimated ..

... would only argue, indirectly, that the Gini Ratio is possibly higher than stated.

There's an interesting overview article on this subject at http://www.socialwatch.org/en/informesTematicos/63.html

[Vladimir]

25. Yeah I know, was just wondering if you knew of it n/t

[CHIMO]

30. Growing old globally

All over the world, in rich and poor countries alike, populations are ageing - and rapidly! People everywhere are living longer and having fewer children. Consequently, societies all around the globe are facing the daunting prospect of having to support huge numbers of older people with smaller families and fewer workers to put money in the pension pot.

"The rest of East Asia, Latin America and Mexico are all in real danger of becoming old before they become rich and if so, not only will the elderly impose a growing burden on public budgets but most of all they'll impose an unsupportable burden on families because families represent - still in these countries - the primary form of old-age insurance."

The problem is that people the world over are having fewer children - and if you put that together with the fact that many countries have no, or at best, inadequate pension systems, disastrous consequences await many societies within just a couple of decades.

"There's a humanitarian crisis of colossal proportions looming in the future of China, East Asia in general and Latin America if they don't take adequate steps to prepare."

http://www2.rnw.nl/rnw/en/specialseries/ageing/050201doc

The program is about half an hour and discusses other areas. I suppose that the interest has been brought about by the issue of SS.

[democracy eh]

28. your tahiti sig just short circuited my brain

wacky sensation

like the japanese cartoon on the Simpsons that caused seizures

[TahitiNut]

32. (grin) Sounds like a 'chemical' problem to me.

I'm one of those guys who used to do a little weed with "InnaGaddaDaVida" playing on my stereo, with the Color Organs going full blast. Ahhhh... I can still see the lights 35 years later. Awesome.

[VegasWolf]

26. I'm not sure how much faith I would put in public CIA numbers. If

true, then I guess they are spending all of their
disposable income on plastic surgery rather than food!

http://www.bworld.net/weekender/marketing/marketing1.html

Plastic surgery is so popular there that they have the world's
first beauty pagent just for girls with plastic surgeries.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-12/13/content_399645.htm

Watching news reports about Beijing, Shanghai, Xian the people
in the streets look pretty well dressed and not starving.
I never am sure anymore about what our government says about
communist contries.

[Wabbajack]

27. He got the lowest gpa in the history of Yale?

?

[Octafish]

9. Thanks to BFEE.

Evidence of High Treason:


Outsourcing US Missile Technology to China

US Workers Charge Treason

By Jeffrey St. Clair
October 25, 2003

Magnequench is an Indianapolis-based company. It specializes in the obscure field of sintered magnetics. Essentially, it makes tiny, high-tech magnets from rare-earth minerals ground down into a fine powder. The magnets are highly prized by electronics and aviation companies. But Magnequench's biggest client has been the Pentagon.

The neodymium-iron-boron magnets made by Magnequench are a crucial component in the guidance system of cruise missiles and the Joint Direct Attack Munition or JDAM bomb, which is made by Boeing and had a starring role in the spring bombing of Baghdad. Indeed, Magnequench enjoys a near monopoly on this market niche, supplying 85 percent of the rare-earth magnets that are used in the servo motors of these guided missiles and bombs.

But the Pentagon may soon be sending its orders for these parts to China, instead of Indiana. On September 15, Magnequench shuttered its last plant in Indiana, fired its 450 workers and began shipping its machine tools to a new plant in China. "We're handing over to the Chinese both our defense technology and our jobs in the midst of a deep recession," says Rep. Peter Visclosky, a Democrat from northern Indiana.

SAD SNIP...

"By controlling access to the magnets and the raw materials they are composed of, US industry can be held hostage to Chinese blackmail and extortion," Leitner told Insight magazine last year. "This highly concentrated control-one country, one government-will be the sole source of something critical to the US military and industrial base."

Visclosky and Senator Evan Bayh have asked the Bush administration to intervene using the Exon-Florio Amendment to the 1988 Defense Appropriation Act to pry the Chinese money out of the company and force Magnequench to keep its factories in Indiana.

CONTINUED...

http://www.counterpunch.org/stclair10252003.html

I heard the sociopathic idiot speak to the Detroit Economic Club today. The guy LAUGHED when he talked about "One in five jobs can be lost to outsourcing." Laughed.

[VegasWolf]

10. bush is too incredibly stupid to see the dangers of outsourcing. All

he sees are short term capital gains.

[seemslikeadream]

11. plot reaches the highest levels of the United States government

Based upon credible intelligence and extensive secret documentation previously with-held by law enforcement agencies we have determined that the plot reaches the highest levels of the United States government and involves United States Congressman Tom Feeney, R. Florida and at least Florida Governor, Jeb Bush.

Secret documents show the espionage and treason acts perpetrated against the United States involved murder, programming vote switching software, manipulation and control of existing government computer databases maintained by the Federal Aviation Administration, Internal Revenue Service, Federal Bureau of Investigation, United States Customs, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Department of Defense, Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the Florida Department of Transportation are just a few of the many government agencies that have been infiltrated by Chinese and Saudi spies.

The high level IT attacks have resulted in a War Of Terror against citizens worldwide and are outlined in a book published in China in February 1999 which proposes tactics for developing countries, in particular China, to compensate for their military inferiority vis-à-vis the United States during a high-tech war.

The book was written by two PLA senior colonels from the younger generation of Chinese military officers and was published by the PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House in Beijing, suggesting that its release was endorsed by at least some elements of the PLA leadership. This impression was reinforced by an interview with Qiao and laudatory review of the book carried by the party youth league's official daily Zhongguo Qingnian Bao.

Published prior to the bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade, the book has drawn the attention of both the Chinese and Western press for its advocacy of a multitude of means, both military and particularly non-military, to strike at the United States during times of conflict. Hacking into websites, targeting financial institutions, terrorism, using the media, and conducting urban warfare are among the methods proposed.

more
http://www.insider-magazine.com/unrestricted_warfare.htm

from
Wiley50
Crime Scene Pix--Dead Florida Investigator re: J.Bush/Feeney deal- not Sui
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3073162

[seemslikeadream]

29. Yang Offered Clint Curtis $1 Million for a No-Work, No-Show Job!

http://www.bradblog.com/archives/00001176.htm

[Kansas Wyatt]

12. Reframe the issue....

Since all Bush minions are so anti-communist, let all of them know that Bush is allowing Chinese Communism to take over the World and destroy the United States.

[Straight Shooter]

13. And another reframing issue ...

Tell those bushies that China's rapidly increasing competition for oil will escalate what Americans pay for gas, and it could very well rise to $4 or $5 per gallon.

And you know what? What the hell are we going to do about China's rising power anyhow? It seems like 60 percent of the products in stores have "made in China" stamped on them. Boycotting Wal-Mart would be an excellent place to start, but then all the bushies would suffer horribly from cheap-plastic-goods and child-labor-clothing withdrawal symptoms.

[Orsino]

16. We must invade now!

We cannot wait for the smoking gun to come in the form of cheap plastic sh-t with badly-translated instructions.

[Blue_Tires]

22. look for all the major U.S. corps to continue

to completely sell the country out in the name in increased profit margins...

funny...i remember back in the 80s when EVERYBODY was afraid because they knew that japan was going to own every business and acre of land in the u.s....for some reason, this updated scenario doesn't seem as rosy

[MAlibdem]

23. bullshit

Without massive relocation of peasants from the countryside and sustained growth rates of 8% a year, this won't happen.

Fascio-communist regime will also interfere with growth at a certain point down the line.

[TexasLawyer]

33. China trade costs US 1.5 million jobs

From Asia Times

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GB09Ad05.html

Asia Times is publishing on its site a comprehensive and lengthy economic study performed by Dr. Robert E Scott, who is the director of international programs at the Economic Policy Institute (link to Institute is available at the end of AT article). Really interesting article.

Feb 9, 2005
China trade costs US 1.5 million jobs
By Robert E Scott

The rise in the United States' trade deficit with China between 1989 and 2003 caused the displacement of production that supported 1.5 million US jobs. Some of those jobs were related to production or services that ceased or moved elsewhere; others were jobs in supplying industries. These jobs reflect the effect on labor demand - in lost job opportunities - in an economy with a worsening balance between exports and imports. Most of those lost opportunities were in the high-wage and job-hemorrhaging manufacturing sector. The number of job opportunities lost each year grew rapidly during the 1990s and accelerated after China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. The loss of these potential jobs is just the most visible tip of China's impact on the US economy.

During the 14-year period covered by this study, there has been a significant shift in the kinds of industries suffering job displacement, a shift that runs counter to initial expectations. Where the largest impact was once felt in labor-intensive, lower-tech manufacturing industries such as apparel and shoes, the fastest growth in job displacement is now occurring in highly skilled and advanced technology areas once considered relatively immune, such as electronics, computers, and communications equipment.

Major findings of this study

The loss of job-supporting production in the United States due to growing trade deficits with China has more than doubled since it entered the WTO in 2001. The 1.5 million job opportunities lost nationwide are distributed among all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the biggest losers in numeric terms being California (199,922), Texas (99,420), New York (81,721), Pennsylvania (69,822), Illinois (69,668), North Carolina (62,698), Florida (60,026), Ohio (58,094), Michigan (50,991) and Georgia (46,848).
The 10 hardest-hit states, as a share of total state employment, are Maine (14,951, or 2.47%), Arkansas (19,123, 1.67%), North Carolina (62,698, 1.65%), Rhode Island (7,548, 1.56%), New Hampshire (9,443, 1.53%), Indiana (43,533, 1.50%), Massachusetts (46,463, 1.46%), Wisconsin (39,668, 1.43%), Vermont (4,211, 1.41%) and California (199,922, 1.39%).

China's exports to the US of electronics, computers and communications equipment, along with other products that use more highly skilled labor and advanced technologies, are growing much faster than its exports of low-value, labor-intensive items such as apparel, shoes and plastic products. Consequently, China now accounts for the entire US$32 billion US trade deficit in advanced-technology products (ATP). China is also rapidly gaining advantage in more advanced industries such as autos and aerospace products.

China's entry into the WTO was supposed to provide openings for a sufficiently rapid growth in US exports to reduce the trade deficit with China. While the export growth rate has increased since 2001 (from a very small base), the value of those exports has been swamped by a rapidly rising tide of imports. The WTO is a free-trade and investment agreement that has provided investors with a unique set of guarantees designed to stimulate foreign direct investment and the movement of factories around the world, especially from the US to low-wage locations such as China and Mexico.

<much more>