Hans Binnendijk
International Herald Tribune
Wednesday, February 9, 2005
Bush in Brussels
WASHINGTON A silent crisis is building over European arms sales to China that needs attention during President George W. Bush's visit to Brussels this month, or it will overwhelm any positive impact the trip may have.
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On Dec. 17, the European Union reaffirmed its political will to "continue to work" toward lifting the post-Tiananmen arms embargo on China and decide on the issue during the next six months. In response, the U.S. Congress overwhelmingly passed a resolution declaring that the lifting of the embargo would be inconsistent with trans-Atlantic defense cooperation and threatening unwelcome constraints on the defense relationship if the current course is not reconsidered.
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France champions lifting the embargo for economic advantage and possibly in an effort to construct counterbalancing pressures on American power. Britain now supports the concept, perhaps to offset damage done to its European ties over Iraq. Germany seems prepared to go along because it believes the European arms sales code of conduct will be an adequate substitute. Many other EU countries are hesitant, but they lack the political will to confront EU leaders to block the embargo's repeal.
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Europe is missing the depth of American concern. The United States does not see China as an enemy today; it recognizes that war with China would be disastrous for all. But Europe will remember the dynamics of August 1914, when an unforeseen event triggered commitments, mobilization and slaughter among nations who did not want war. Relations across the Taiwan Strait are not under American control, Chinese vehemence on Taiwan is unmistakable and Taiwanese democracy seeks independence. A similar dynamic could recur.
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