WP: Medicare Drug Benefit May Cost $1.2 Trillion

[Pirate Smile]

Medicare Drug Benefit May Cost $1.2 Trillion
Estimate Dwarfs Bush's Original Price Tag

By Ceci Connolly and Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, February 9, 2005; Page A01

The White House released budget figures yesterday indicating that the new Medicare prescription drug benefit will cost more than $1.2 trillion in the coming decade, a much higher price tag than President Bush suggested when he narrowly won passage of the law in late 2003.

The projections represent the most complete picture to date of how much the program will cost after it begins next year. The expense of the new drug benefit has been a source of much controversy since the day Congress approved it, with Democrats and some Republicans complaining that the White House has consistently low-balled the expected cost to the government.

As recently as September, Medicare chief Mark B. McClellan said the new drug package would cost $534 billion over 10 years. Last night, he acknowledged that the cumulative cost of the program between 2006 and 2015 would reach $1.2 trillion, but he cited several major savings and offsets that would reduce the federal government's bottom-line cost to $720 billion.

The disclosure prompted new criticism by Democrats about the administration's long-term budget estimates. It also showed that Medicare, the national medical insurance program for seniors, may pose a far more serious budgetary problem in the coming decade than concerns about the solvency of Social Security.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9328-2005Feb8.html

[Pirate Smile]

1. This was the program they threatened to fire the actuary over if he told

the truth about the cost.

"Beginning with his January 2003 State of the Union address, Bush pledged to keep the total cost of the drug benefit to $400 billion over 10 years. An estimate by the Congressional Budget Office was close to Bush's figure.

But shortly after Bush signed the program into law in December 2003, the White House revised its projection to $534 billion, but it never offered a detailed breakdown of that estimate.

Last March, Richard S. Foster, Medicare's chief actuary for nearly a decade, said administration officials threatened to fire him if he had disclosed his belief in 2003 that the drug package would cost $500 billion to $600 billion. Lawmakers in both parties accused the administration of concealing important information that could have derailed passage of the bill."

[amandabeech]

2. If these idiots would just let Medicare join with other federal

health care systems like the military and Veterans Administration and negotiate bulk purchase prices, I'm willing to be that the pathetic coverage as enacted would be much cheaper and there would be money left to subsidize low-income seniors through the $3,600 donut in their coverage.

Hack off the various subsidies to HMO's and other private health care plans to get them to take seniors, and you'd really save some serious cash.

[Strelnikov_]

3. I Wonder If This Is How They Plan To 'Fix' Social Security

"Beginning with his January 2003 State of the Union address, Bush pledged to keep the total cost of the drug benefit to $400 billion over 10 years. An estimate by the Congressional Budget Office was close to Bush's figure."

So we are now 3x more expensive.

No wonder the foreign countries holding our debt are getting nervous.

[CAG]

5. Of course it is...

In medicare's case, the drug companies get all of the money.

In the Iraq war and whatever new preemptive war thats invented by shrub, Eisenhower's (a republican-lite, most of our right wing friends would call him today) warnings of the military-industrial complex become an incredible understatement.

In social security's case, investment firms reap a windfall of charges and fees.

[CAG]

4. No surprise here...

For decades, the repubs have said that estimates of costs for any new programs from the federal government are usually underestimated and end up costing more money. Sometimes, they're right. I'm not sure that any new program, however, has been so underestimated as this new republican plan.
Why am I not going to be surprised if we hear new estimates in the next 6-12 months that the cost estimates will go to 1.8 trillion or more?
My advice: get a job in the drug industry; thats where all the money will end up going anyway. Everyone else will starve.

[stopbush]

6. NYT: New White House Estimate Lifts Drug Benefit Cost to $720 Billion

New White House Estimate Lifts Drug Benefit Cost to $720 Billion
By ROBERT PEAR

WASHINGTON, Feb. 8 - The Bush administration offered a new estimate of the cost of the Medicare drug benefit on Tuesday, saying it would cost $720 billion in the next 10 years.


That is much more than the $400 billion Congress assumed when it passed legislation creating the benefit in late 2003.


But administration officials said the numbers were not comparable. The original estimate was for the years 2004 to 2013. The new estimate covers the period from 2006, when the drug benefit becomes available, to 2015.


The higher figure, which provides the first glimpse of the true cost of the drug benefit, could touch off a political uproar in Congress, where conservative Republicans were already expressing alarm about the costs of Medicare, including the drug benefit.

http://nytimes.com/2005/02/09/national/09medicare.html?ei=5094&en=1a75c77fde14828c&hp=&ex=1108011600&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print&position=

[Scooter24]

7. My god

I remember watching the Democrats scream at the top of their lungs about the costs not being factual. Nobody seemed to care.

I highly doubt that the $320 billion increase is because the estimate is from 2006-2015 rather than 2004-2013. Unless they are that stupid and are estimating that there will be a lot of sick people in 2014 and 2015.

Saying "I told you so" doesn't do this justice. I hope the Democrats in Congress shove it right into their faces and let the people know that the Republicans have created a bigger mess than they started with.

[stopbush]

8. Ideally, the Dems would use this as a bludgeon to destroy *'s

attack on SS.

When oh WHEN will the *standard* Dem line be, "they LIE about everything!"?

[moobu2]

9. How could anyone believe anything that reptile say's about SS?

Just look at his record. The Medicare budget lies are huge but that just one example of a systematic intentional policy of lies and deceit..

WAKE UP AMERICA, BEFORE ITS TO LATE!!

From the article:

Passage of the Medicare bill was a major political achievement for President Bush and the Republican leaders of Congress. It squeaked through the House by a vote of 220 to 215, and it would probably not have been approved in its current form if lawmakers had thought the cost would exceed a half-trillion dollars.

Mr. Emanuel said: "The new cost estimate destroys the credibility of the Bush administration. Officials were so far off in estimating the cost of the Medicare law. Why should we believe what they say about the financial problems of Social Security?"

Representative Pete Stark of California, the senior Democrat on the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health, said: "I told you so. We can't trust numbers provided by administration officials. They'll say anything to get a bill passed. And if the new drug benefit costs more, the extra money goes to their friends in the pharmaceutical industry, not to senior citizens."

[Old and In the Way]

10. When does incompetence become criminal?

We are talking about a group of people who have:

(1) Allowed 9/11 to happen by not paying attention to warnings (best case). 3,000 Americans died and no one is held accountable.

(2) Taken a $500BB surplus and turned it into a $500BB deficit in 5 years. That's a Trillion dollar delta.

(3) Lied about the cause of war in Iraq.

(4) Probably committed election fraud to maintain power.

(5) Put an irrepsonsible taxcut on the books that will add trillions to the deficit.

(6) Abbrogated our civil rights with the Patriot Act.

(7) Have lied about SS and medicare.....which will cost us trillions more.

Sorry, it's not incompetence. It's treason.....they are destroying this country as surely as if they sold us out to some foreign country.

[Kimber Scott]

11. You forgot, they are selling us out to a foreign country. Isn't China

financing a lot of our debt? Besides the fact they make practically everything we buy, they finance our debt as well. Let's hope they don't get mad and call the note do.

[rodeodance]

12. recall the clause that no one could negiatate with drug companies---

to ban to together to get prices down.? They got away with that one even though it created quite a lot of press. Well, this is one of the main effects.

[cthrumatrix]

13. Medicare Drug Benefit May Cost $1.2 Trillion - Wash Post (double the $$)

Medicare Drug Benefit May Cost $1.2 Trillion
Estimate Dwarfs Bush's Original Price Tag

By Ceci Connolly and Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, February 9, 2005; Page A01

The White House released budget figures yesterday indicating that the new Medicare prescription drug benefit will cost more than $1.2 trillion in the coming decade, a much higher price tag than President Bush suggested when he narrowly won passage of the law in late 2003.

The projections represent the most complete picture to date of how much the program will cost after it begins next year. The expense of the new drug benefit has been a source of much controversy since the day Congress approved it, with Democrats and some Republicans complaining that the White House has consistently low-balled the expected cost to the government.

As recently as September, Medicare chief Mark B. McClellan said the new drug package would cost $534 billion over 10 years. Last night, he acknowledged that the cumulative cost of the program between 2006 and 2015 will reach $1.2 trillion, but he cited several major savings and offsets that he said will reduce the federal government's bottom-line cost to $720 billion.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9328-2005Feb8.html


I'm shocked that the pharmaceutical companies would be getting more from this plan than bush told us. And now this man wants to do the same for Soc Sec.

[SpiralHawk]

14. "Oh, shit, I guess I was wrong again" - George W. Bush

"I think the American people--I hope the American--I don't think, let me--I hope the American people trust me."
- George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Dec. 18, 2002

[Gin]

15. Medicare also just approved an implant for heart patients who

"may" have a heart attack..its a defibrulator and pacemaker in one. That will cost 80+ billion per year.

This is obviously a program spiraling out of control and on its last legs. and..........thats just what the chimp wants.

[durablend]

16. Drug program was "Norquisted" before it started

They're going to wait until they reap enough money from it, then abolish it altogether because it costs too much...you watch.

[leftchick]

17. Medicare Benefit Estimated at $720 Billion

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050209/ap_on_he_me/medicare_costs

WASHINGTON - Medicare's new prescription drug program will cost taxpayers $720 billion over its first 10 years, with costs reaching $100 billion a year by the middle of the next decade, according to a new estimate by the Bush administration.


The new number is far higher than any previous estimate produced by the administration or Congress, but it reflects what lawmakers and health care analysts have known all along: As baby boomers turn 65 and swell Medicare's rolls, the government's tab for their health care is expected to rise substantially.


The new projection issued Tuesday runs from 2006 to 2015 and is not directly comparable to the $400 billion estimate lawmakers had when they narrowly approved Medicare legislation in 2003 or to the revised estimate of $534 billion that the White House issued just two months later, after the law was enacted.


Those figures covered the 10 years from 2004 to 2013 — two years to devise the drug benefit and put it in place and eight years in which the government would pay some drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries

[Roland99]

18. What was that guy's name who was almost fired for telling the truth?

Foster, I think.


Oh well, remember all of this?

http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=37095
First, congressional leaders violated House rules in extending the voting period on the bill up to three hours after the initial vote count came up short. Then Rep. Nick Smith (R- MI) confessed – and later recanted – that he switched his vote in favor of the bill after threats and bribery attempts including promises of $100,000 from business interests for his son's campaign. Next, the White House unveiled a multi-million dollar ad campaign – using taxpayer funds – to defend the faulty legislation. The GAO released a report this week stating the ads misrepresented the prescription drug benefits and included "notable omissions and other weaknesses." And just yesterday, Knight-Ridder reported the Bush administration threatened to fire the government's top expert on Medicare costs if he told lawmakers about the real price tag for the bill prior to the voting.

http://www.independent-media.tv/itemprint.cfm?fmedia_id=6271&fcategory_desc=Health
In November, House members endorsed a House-Senate compromise version by a 220-215 vote. Approving the version were 13 Republican fiscal conservatives who had said they would vote against it if it cost more than $400 billion for its first 10 years.


Well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/09/national/09medicare.html?hp&ex=1108011600&en=1a75c77fde14828c&ei=5094&partner=homepage
Representative Pete Stark of California, the senior Democrat on the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health, said: "I told you so. We can't trust numbers provided by administration officials. They'll say anything to get a bill passed. And if the new drug benefit costs more, the extra money goes to their friends in the pharmaceutical industry, not to senior citizens."

[Emboldened Chimp]

19. I'm both outraged and not surprised in the least

It's amazing I can still get pissed off at these guys when they've lied and deceived so much.

[struggle4progress]

20. kick