STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY SEPT 19....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday September 19, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 493
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 305
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 280 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 338 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 180
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 664
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 18, 2003

Dow... 9,659.13 +113.48 (+1.19%)
Nasdaq... 1,909.55 +26.45 (+1.40%)
S&P 500.... 1,039.58 +13.61 (+1.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.18% -0.01 (-0.17%)
Gold future... 377.70 +0.40 (+0.11%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. Good morning! Here's a WrapUp.

WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Will Additional Rules Help the Long-Term Investor?

In general, corporate managements already practice strategies that are consistent with the so-called shareholders. Additional corporate governance rules will not be very effective. Just as casinos exist because there is demand for them, desire to speculate provides similar demand that will not be changed by additional rules. Eventually the market will purge the excesses and shareholder value will be the goal of more corporate managements; but there is no telling when (not if) this will occur. It will have to change from the shareholder side before it changes at all. For corporate managements to focus on long-term shareholder value, they must have long-term shareholders

<cut>

I’m sure that Enron and World Com were manically traded before and through their collapses. If the time horizon of the shareholder was short, then may be the management activities although alleged to be criminal, were actually appropriate to align with these short-minded traders that flipped the stock. Imagine management teams so dedicated to their shareholders that they would cheat and steal in their behalf! When the collapse occurred, share flippers should have understood the risks of trading in manically traded stocks. Additional regulation will do very little to change that. However, long-term investors only have caveat emptor (let the buyer beware) to rely upon.

Most management behavior of manically traded companies is logical given the shareholder base and probably stops short of fraud. If I was the CEO of a company with a manic shareholder base in this market environment, my management style may include carefully managing earnings expectations and guidance, reporting pro-forma and C.R.A.P. earnings, issuing mid-quarter updates, making frequent celebrity appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and always trying to “beat-by-a-penny” with sales and profits that are “better-than-expected”. I would dismiss any negative business irregularity as a “one time event”, and take full credit for the positive ones. These tactics would all take priority over providing my shareholders with ANY long-term vision of company that extended over a period of years. There would be no need to provide shareholders with the company’s long view. What purpose would it serve in the short term (that encompasses the average shareholder’s term)? When was the last time you heard a CEO of a highly traded company provide the viewers with any long-term vision of the company’s future that went out more than 6-months? It’s also rare for Wall Street and media lap dogs to ask these tough questions regarding long-term company vision and expectations. But management will only seek true long-term shareholder value when there are significant long-term shareholders. The obvious fact is that the long-term prospects for many of these companies may be robust but their long-term growth would not even come close to justifying their irrational valuations. With a shareholder base drunk with speculation, why state the obvious?

more

[Maeve]

2. Under-reported stories from yesterday

Mid-Atlantic manufacturing slides
Philly Fed index falls to 14.6 in September, down from 22.1 in August and below views of 17.3.
September 18, 2003: 12:30 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region fell more than expected in September, a survey said Thursday, tempering the view that a surge in August was the start of a recovery for the troubled manufacturing sector.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its index of factory business conditions fell to 14.6 from 22.1 in August, below economists' forecasts of a drop to 17.3. It marked the fourth month of expansion, shown by a reading above zero.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Job satisfaction hits new low
Promotion policies, bonus plans and wages top the list of gripes.
September 18, 2003: 6:42 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Less than half of all Americans say they are satisfied with their jobs, according to a survey by the Conference Board. That marks the highest level of dissatisfaction since the survey was first conducted in 1995.

Only 20 percent of respondents said they are satisfied with their promotions and bonus plans, and only about a third said they are content with wages.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rich Get Richer
NEW YORK, Sep 18, 2003 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- The economy is improving for the super rich. After two years of declines, the total net worth of America's richest people rose 10 percent to $955 billion this year from 2002, according to Forbes magazine's annual ranking of the nation's 400 wealthiest individuals.

Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates, who remained in the top spot, personified the trend toward increasing wealth. His fortune increased by $3 billion to $46 billion this year. Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen held third place, with his net worth rising $1 billion to $22 billion.

Investor Warren Buffett kept the No. 2 position although his wealth was unchanged at $36 billion

[htuttle]

3. When was the last time the dollar was below 115 yen?

It's at 114.6 Yen right now, and dropping.

I looked on the 2 year chart, and it hadn't gotten below 115 Y in that period.

Wasn't there a story yesterday that the Japanese gov't/banks had come under pressure (from someone...not sure who) to stop supporting the dollar against the Yen?

[UpInArms]

5. here is a link for the historical data on the yen

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/hist_JY.html

[JNelson6563]

4. Good Friday Morning Fellow Marketeers!!

Well quite a whirl-wind of a morning! Much news to digest, little of it any good.

What a wrap-up today! Boy really nailed the corporate tactics regarding how to manage things (ivestors mostly) via sound bytes. Brilliant.

And the over-looked stories Maeve posted! No wonder they didn't report 'em! Nothing but dark clouds for the masses (a.k.a. voters) so no need to look at those....nothing to see here, move along.

So let's look at a few items, the NYSE/Grasso debacle worsens. Now people are looking past the tree they all pissed on (Grasso) and see a forest (board). Hmmm. Maybe there's something wrong there. Duh! It's too large, unruly and, until now, kinda like Mt. Olympus to us mere mortals. Suddenly they are being talked about as if they were mere mortals that have possibly made mistakes!! *gasp*

Then we have increasing casualties in Iraq, real ugly time right now, many deaths. Bad news for Jr. Oh yes and then there's the House of Saud pallin' around with Putin (you know, the guy whose soul the Simian saw) talkin' "nukular" and stuff. What up with that?

To top it all off, after devising endlessly clever ways of inferring Saddam had a hand in 9/11 without actually saying it, well they had to come clean and 'fess up there's no link. Well that tears it!! Now what??

They can't just do another LIHOP cause they've been busy insisting we are so much safer now that we've spent boatloads on money on Hallib...er, Iraq. Yep. It's all good now, those evil-doers will never get us again now that we have usrurped the oi, er, liberated the Iraqis.

Hmmmm. This is a tough situation. Even if Rove could channel Machiaevelli he'd find no answers. This is too tangled a web for even him (the Masterful Machiavelli that is, I see Rove as more fallible than many here do) I'd guess.

Maybe just a terra-lert color change...? haha

Should be a bang-up end to the week today I'd wager.

Julie

[Maeve]

6. 9:40 and which way to go?

Dow 9,672.75 +13.62 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,905.95 -3.60 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,038.14 -1.44 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.162% -0.022

[Maeve]

7. 10:04 and some bouncing

Dow 9,663.69 +4.56 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,902.72 -6.83 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,036.65 -2.93 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.183% -0.001

[Coventina]

8. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning and TGIF!

Well, once again, no changing lines in today's reading! So the only hexagram is SHOCKING! Ching is predicting a Shocking event for today. Shocking is not especially bad, it can lead to good things. Ching advises, "Affairs that are pending and unfinished business will cause difficulties during Shocking times."

Well, based on that, I'm going to guess that there will be some big news event that will cause the market to either jump or drop unexpectedly. Although, Ching has shown us Shocking before, and nothing really happened, so take that with a grain of salt!
Have a good weekend everyobody!
:hi:

[JNelson6563]

9. Is this market confused or what?

10:33:


Dow 9,648.54 -10.59 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,904.68 -4.87 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,036.20 -3.38 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.171% -0.013

How do you steer this crazy thing? :shrug:

Julie

[creativelcro]

10. bubble

It's another goddam bubble...-CV

[aneerkoinos]

11. WTF is happening?

Look at gold, look at yen, look at euro, and stocks also in steep dive...

What else?

[htuttle]

13. Maybe somebody looked down...

[Maeve]

12. 11:02 update with blather

10:30AM: After lifting to their session highs, the indices have started to retreat back to their earlier lows... Today's quadruple-witching options expiration can be at least, partially, credited for the volatility exhibited thus far by the market... Among the sectors that have bridged into positive territory are the previously-lagging semiconductor, software, disk drive, oil services, and banking groups... The advance of the latter is particularly significant since the banking sector is a big one in terms of influencing market direction...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,633.03 -26.10 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,900.20 -9.35 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,034.52 -5.06 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.154% -0.030

[JNelson6563]

14. Wow! Look at gold go!!

I tell ya, gold's the place to be. I've seen it for a while. It's high and going higher. Remember, in our lifetimes it's hit $800 so it could happen......even if it doesn't go that high.

I'm telling you this is a situation where, if it were back in time, royals/nobles would be now sewing jewels into their garments, packing up the poison rings and burying gold and silver in the ground.

11:22:
Dow 9,632.25 -26.88 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,900.73 -8.82 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 1,034.63 -4.95 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% -0.033

The markets do not tell the full story (as usual).

Julie

[ozymandius]

15. 11:47 and struggling to the surface

My boy is taking a nap so I might be able to update for the next hour or so.

DJIA 9,650.92 -8.21 (-0.08%)
NASDAQ 1,904.01 -5.54 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,036.12 -3.46 (-0.33%)
Gold... 383.50 +5.80 (+1.54%)
10-year bond.... 4.19% +0.00 (+0.05%)

[JNelson6563]

17. ah naptime

a most precious commodity. ;-)

Julie

[mrsteve]

16. 12:25 - and still swimming below open

Dow 9,643.84 -15.29 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,904.31 -5.24 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,035.48 -4.10 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% -0.002

Yahoo finance is still trying to be positive, even on a mediocre morning:

"12:00PM: Given the absence of economic reports through next Thursday and the limited number of influential earnings reports and corporate developments, investors are using today's session as an excuse to take a breather from this week's advance of the blue-chip averages to new 52-week highs and of the Nasdaq to a new 15-month high and book some profits...
Nonetheless, selling efforts have been largely controlled, while dips have, for the most part, been used as buying opportunities as the underlying trend in stocks remains bullish given the accelerating economy, resilient consumer, historically-low interest rates, and the Fed's plan to maintain their accommodative policy for a "considerable" period of time... In today's session, the small- and mid-cap stocks are outperforming the large-caps on a relative basis, speaking to the ongoing rotation that's been keeping the broader market from selling off to a great degree... Today's volume is running at a heavy clip, which can be attributed to the quadruple-witching options expiration... The latter has also played its part in creating a degree of choppiness and volatility in the indices..."

Yahoo Fi Updates

[JNelson6563]

18. coming up for air?

12:36:

Dow 9,653.37 -5.76 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,905.85 -3.70 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,036.48 -3.10 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% -0.002

I bet around 2 there will be a set direction. I don't dare guess it though....

(When it comes to $$ I tend to take the safer (more cowardly) route. To cite a fun quote--not sure where I got it: It's the coward who lives to tell how the brave guy died. haha)

Julie

[JNelson6563]

19. ok, more like gasping for breath

12:54


Dow 9,637.31 -21.82 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,904.52 -5.03 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,035.13 -4.46 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168% -0.016


Julie

[ozymandius]

21. I make some nonsense in the Lounge and return to find this -

1:17

DJIA 9,628.04 -31.09 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ 1,902.31 -7.24 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,034.28 -5.30 (-0.51%)
10-year bond 4.17% -0.01 (-0.33%)
Gold.... 382.70 +5.00 (+1.32%)

[UpInArms]

20. the dollar's message for the day is

"help! I've fallen and I can't get up!"

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 94.89 Change -1.06 (-1.10%)

[ozymandius]

22. 1:52 and hovering

DJIA 9,631.41 -27.72 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ 1,901.35 -8.20 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,034.42 -5.16 (-0.50%)
10yr Note 4.17% -0.01

[Maeve]

23. 2:04 and not hovering

Dow 9,616.60 -42.53 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,896.76 -12.79 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,032.37 -7.21 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.154% -0.030

[mrsteve]

24. I go out to lunch and come back to this - 2:20

Dow 9,613.73 -45.40 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,897.60 -11.95 (-0.63%)
S&P 500 1,032.42 -7.16 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.161% -0.023

Yeah, I ate in a real restaurant instead of al desko and the market just keeps slipping. That'll teach me to leave my post.

That dollar thing has me nervous, though. It appears to me that foreign traders are getting a bit antsy with the US Gov's red ink machine.

Yahoo Finance - still guardedly optimistic:

"2:00PM: Selling pressure mounts as the major averages slip toward their worst levels of the day and the Dow sets a new session low... Among its 30 components, 21 are in the red, with the most significant laggards being Merck (MRK 52.37 -0.71), Procter & Gamble (PG 92.50 -0.75), and General Electric (GE 31.65 -0.46)... Leaders to the upside are tech players IBM (92.99 +0.99), Microsoft (MSFT 29.62 +0.12), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.07 +0.10)...
Note that not a single of the Dow's components has made a move in excess of a point today, with the vast majority of the issues (27 of 30) having moved less than $0.50... As such, while the Dow is still in the red, its losses are only mild and the composite is staying within reach of the unchanged line..."

Yahoo Updates

[ozymandius]

25. "I can't hold her much longer Captain."

At 2:34 - seems the markets have found a new place to hang out.


DJIA 9,615.83 -43.30 (-0.45%)
NASDAQ 1,897.68 -11.87 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,032.53 -7.05 (-0.68%)
10yr Note 4.17% -0.01

[ozymandius]

26. At this point, I must bid you farewell.

The boy has awakened from his nap. Time to have some adventure outdoors.

Have a great weekend all!

[mrsteve]

27. Arr, cap'n, tis the infamous red tide, tho small 'tis....3:25

Going into the last 30 minutes of the week sees improvement, but still in the negatives:

Dow 9,644.89 -14.24 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,904.47 -5.08 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,035.86 -3.72 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.162% -0.022

Yahoo Finance sez:

"3:00PM: The major averages have gotten a slight boost, but remain engulfed underwater... Keep in mind, however, that current losses ranging 0.3-0.5% are only mild, particularly considering the scope of this week's gains... Among today's most actively traded shares on the Nasdaq are regulars like Microsoft (MSFT 29.80 +0.30) and Oracle (ORCL 12.13 -0.23), as well as Sirius Satellite (SIRI 1.97 +0.13) following news that Ford will be offering its satellite radio on ten different Ford, Lincoln and Mercury vehicles for 2004 model year..."

[mrsteve]

28. Finish for the day - still in the red

Guess yesterday's exuberance had short coattails. At 4:00 -

Dow 9,644.82 -14.31 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,905.74 -3.81 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,036.31 -3.27 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.162% -0.022

Per the Yahoo updates - reports next week:

"Next week, several brokerage companies are reporting earnings, including GS, LEH, and MWD before the open on Tuesday... Other earnings reports for the week include those from AZO, PAYX, SCHL, BBBY, DRI, SLR, and RIMM... For more information on these and other reporters, make sure to visit Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar... The Economic Calendar is blank until Thursday, when things heat up with the August Durable Orders, Initial Claims for the week of 9/20, and August Home Sales reports...
Next Friday, look for the final Q2 GDP and Chain Deflator reports, as well as the revised September Michigan Sentiment report..."