Japan's 2004 current account surplus hits record high

[idlisambar]

TOKYO, Feb. 14 (Xinhuanet) -- Japan's current account surplus reached a record 18,590 billion yen (177.0 billion US dollars) in 2004, up 17.9 percent from the previous year, a government report said Monday.

The current account surplus came to 1,616.0 billion yen (15.4 billion dollars) in December, up 35.1 percent from a year earlier,the Finance Ministry said in the preliminary report.

Exports climbed 12.3 percent to 58,306.0 billion yen (555.3 billion dollars), and imports were up 10.9 percent to 43,995.2 billion yen (419.0 billion dollars).

The ministry attributed the record-high surplus to trade surplus with other Asian economies and the United States and a record-high surplus in income account.
...



http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-02/14/content_2576751.htm

[Old Mouse]

1. Japanese governmental reports

have never been without bias or questionable data

[Art_from_Ark]

2. So what part do you disagree with?

Where, specifically, is the Japanese government releasing questionable figures?

[Old Mouse]

4. During the entire Japanese bank meltdown

the government released figures that hid the scope of corporate maleficence until reporters uncovered it. They lied about economic recovery over and over again. They hid the crisis facing their retirement accounts due to underpopulation in misleading statements. In fact, they have regularly released figures that did not reflect the truth to propagandize patriotism, faith in government, stimulation of economic development, and so on.

Most manufacture has moved to China, the bulk of the population is shifting into retirement, with the exception of flat screen TVs the majority of industry is in the red. Even the explosive cell phone market has slowed. Chinese and Korean exports have taken over the Japanese customers.

Japanese corporations have long controlled perception of their economy through the manipulation of currency. I suspect they have a growing trade deficit.

[idlisambar]

5. This is ridiculous

A trade surplus of that size can't be faked. Japan's trade accounts must be reconciled with those of other countries. Japan typically has trade deficits with China, and large trade surpluses with virtually everyone else including Korea and of course the United States.

If they really wanted to make themselves look good for patriotic purposes, they could do a lot better by, for example, adopting U.S. conventions in the calculation of inflation and GDP.

[Old Mouse]

6. Don't you mean "popycock"

I think you underestimate the level of corruption and corporate influence the Japanese government runs under. In the past decade most growth in GNP has been the result of the government injecting tens of trillions of yen into public spending.

I admit I'm no economist, but when the Japanese press uncovers facts like these and labels them "scandals" (like the secret bailout of the Bank of Japan,) I'll say any figures out of this decaying system that point to growth are bogus.

[idlisambar]

8. There are limits to how much trade figures can be fudged.

Understand that if Japan records a trade surplus with Korea then Korea will also record a similar size deficit -- if these figures are out of whack by much then the inconsistency would be quite noticible. For Japan to fake a $177 billion current account surplus would require a worldwide conspiracy. Of all economic indicators, the trade figures are among the most straightforward and reliable (which is not to say perfect). By contrast, GDP, productivity, are full of subjective assumptions.

Concerning the Japanese press reports of "scandals" and other matters, remember that the Japanese press is similarly "corrupt". On economic matters, the mainstream Japanese press outlets are beholden to the government and their coverage should be treated with due skepticism.

[Old Mouse]

10. There's almost no export

yet a 17 percent increase? No produce exports to mention. Japanese cars come out of Korea and China. No textiles of note, there used to be steel and spare parts, but thats decreasing, not increasing. Funny, the only industry boom of a 17 or 30 percent change is the flat screen tv industry, all profitable companies, Sharp, Toshiba have all manufacture in china, yet recorded as Japanese trade. Guess the pacific rim doesn't subscribe to western bookkeeping.

The Japanese press remains corrupt and complacent on some issues, such as Nanking in textbooks, and pushing the right wing agenda toward North Korea, but was instrumental in revealing the Bank of Japan scandal.

[idlisambar]

12. The answer to this puzzle

Japan supplies the machinery, parts, and material for Korean manufacturers. A similar relationship exists with Chinese based manufacturers, many of which are, like you say, offshore platforms of Japanese firms.

Why the Trade Deficit With Japan?

The trade deficit with Japan has increased every year and last year set a new record at US$25.5 billion. The government has long been working to reduce the size of the trade deficit, but with no effect. It is time to figure out exactly what the reasons for the deficit are and come up with some effective measures for dealing with it.


The biggest reason is that many of Korea's finished products for export use parts and materials from Japan. The country is heavily dependent on precision equipment for producing semiconductors. That being the case, the answer is already out there. The trade deficit with Japan will shrink quite naturally if Korea develops its parts and materials industry. The question is why the government and domestic companies are not developing those industries.

...



http://www.hani.co.kr/section-001100000/2005/01/001100000200501120707001.html

[Bhaisahab]

26. hey idlisambar!

how's the weather down south? amma still kicking the seer's ass? :hi:

[Art_from_Ark]

13. Speaking of poppycock,

I'd really like to know where you get your "facts" about Japan. While some of what you say has some grounding in truth, other claims of yours sound like you just pulled a ball out of your sleeve in left field and are watching as it soars over the first baseman's head and into the stands.

For example, in another post you claim:

"No produce exports to mention. Japanese cars come out of Korea and China."

You have GOT to be kidding. There are all sorts of factories in my area here in Japan, producing everything from beer and soy sauce to precision instruments. And there are ALWAYS factory jobs listed in the help wanted ads.

My wife just bought a new Toyota. Made in the city with the same name, near Nagoya, Japan. Not China. Not Korea. Good grief.

I just got a set of new Yokohama tires for my own car. Guess where they were made?

A businessman I know is always being sent to the Sony and Fujitsu computer factories that are a short train ride from Tokyo. I guess he goes to make sure they are all properly boarded up, huh?

" No textiles of note, there used to be steel and spare parts, but thats decreasing, not increasing."

I just bought a nice wool coat, Made in Japan. Same as my shoes. Of course, if you want cheapie shoes, you can always get made in China ones. The outlet stores are full of them. The better stores, though, tend to carry domestic (and European) makes.

You want steel, go check out Nippon Steel and Kawatetsu. They are busy cranking steel out for the Chinese and other markets. Cheapie steel parts might be outsourced, but Japanese makers are busy producing parts with higher value added.


"Funny, the only industry boom of a 17 or 30 percent change is the flat screen tv industry, all profitable companies, Sharp, Toshiba have all manufacture in china, yet recorded as Japanese trade. Guess the pacific rim doesn't subscribe to western bookkeeping."

Sharp and Toshiba, as well as Sony, Hitachi, Panasonic (National), Fujitsu, all have DOMESTIC production facilities as well. Our microwave was made by Matsushita (Panasonic) in Japan. As was our air conditioner. Our TV was made by Sharp in Japan. And I just bought a shaver made by Hitachi in-- get this-- Japan. Will wonders never cease?

Of course, some production is being sent overseas. Canon, for example, sold me a scanner and a printer that were made in China and Thailand, respectively. But, as either the Nihon Keizai Shimbun or Asahi Shimbun (I can't remember which) pointed out, some companies are growing tired of the graft, corruption, and other obstacles they have to put up with to do business in China, and are shifting some production back to Japan.

[Old Mouse]

14. Last time I went to Kawasaki I got a tour of the closed factories

and they haven't re-opened.

Ads for factory workers are going unanswered because a) Japanese won't take those jobs and b)there's precious few workers young enough to do the jobs. Soy sauce makes for 30% uptake in exports? Japanese soy beans stay in Japan. As do Japanese air conditioners, microwave oven, shavers, etc. And when I worked for Sony I saw not only the manufacture of the major goods were from China, but all of the components were made there as well. Even the ones for the domestic market.

Domestic steel and factories exist, I never said they didn't, but they are shrinking and moving production overseas, and have been for years.

Check the employment figures... There's no 17 - 30 percent upswing! How can you have a 30% rise without increased production? By re-routing manifests as though they were inventory.

[idlisambar]

15. If you have evidence for widespread misclassification...

...or first hand knowledge I would seriously like to here about it. Whether this occurs or not, I find the idea of $177 billion of systematic mislabeling less than plausible.

Perhaps you could also offer an explanation for Japan's huge accumulation of foreign assets (including U.S. treasuries) that is consistent with the idea that Japan actually is running trade deficits.

[Old Mouse]

16. you're too fast!

I wanted to clarify my time in Kawasaki was in no way official, and my work at Sony (stateside) was nothing higher than middle management. I am very sorry, as I'm certain that created a misrepresentation of myself. I am in no way equal to the economic experience of all of you on this post.

BTW. Decline takes inertia into effect. I say the numbers don't make sense, unless there is a new growth industry that appeared from nowhere that hires phantom Japanese and pays fairy dust. Exports from Japan are in decline. Employment is flat at best. The population is in decline. The factories are in decline. Exports out of China are up. 30%? I think they count OEM from other countries as domestic.

Someone very close to me is a policy maker who was in on the founding of the APEC. And I've worked with Japanese steel and construction firms before as well. I've had my work stopped as national construction regulations changed with the passing of a thick envelope. I've been very, very deep in the belly of this beast. (I even lived across the street from the diet for a year.)

[Old Mouse]

17. And the dumping of those assets

is how they maintain the illusion of domestic growth.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. You've got a lot to learn about Japan

You seem to have bought into this myth, perpetuated by the Japanese themselves, that there aren't any young people in this country, which is nonsense, since there are plenty of kids here. And the population is still increasing, albeit slowly. However, rural areas are experiencing a youth drain because once they're old enough to leave the nest, rural kids will often go to where the action is, that is, to the cities. That's the cause for much of the alarm.

It's also true that young people shun production work, but young people the world over will shun production work, if there are other opportunities. But the factories in this area are running close to capacity. And you don't have to be a "young whippersnapper" to work at one, either.

As for increasing profits without (apparently) increasing employment, the big keys here are technology, and value-added. That is, using technology to increase production, and replacing marginal production (low-end shavers, electronic gizmos, etc.) with high value-added production. You can also increase production, without affecting the employment rate, by, for example, hiring someone for factory work who had been officially (but marginally) employed at, say a family business.

At the same time, Japan has been busy selling technology and services to China and elsewhere in SE Asia. I know, since I'm in the belly of this particular beast.

And where do you get this idea of "dumping assets to maintain the illusion of domestic growth"? I would like to see some hard figures to back up your assertion.

[Old Mouse]

19. You really don't pay attention to the news!

The entire dioxin polluted world is suffering population decline. japan is the worst off, with Germany not really so far behind. This year in Japan the number of 80 year olds outnumbered the number of 18 year olds for the first time since the nation kept such data. There have been numerous emergency sessions of the Diet on how to promote marriage and family because the pension system will collapse under the strain. (of course a simpler solution would be to allow immigration, but that will never happen) We're beginning the decline stateside as well, but the figures are distorted due to a massive surge in first and second generation immigrant families and a rise in fertility treatment.

It's not youth drain. You may see kids as you walk around, but you are not a census taker. How long have you lived there? Must be a while if you already believe bosozoku are like American kids. Here, people are willing to do any work, even leather work.

And with your industry you then know the electronics manufactured for domestic use in Japan are NOT the same as the ones for export. And even if they were, none of that can explain a 30% rise in ANYTHING. That is a massive raise. Any industry with a one year growth of 30% would be well known: LCD screen TV sets, OEM and manufacture in Korea and China.

You don't seem to follow Japanese governmental corruption... Aids tainted blood being sold to blood banks? Label swapping beef buyback? Illegal reintroduction of BSE into the cattle feed? The entire Diet caught not paying their retirement taxes? The rampant construction bribery? It's not a modern government. It's the same as the restoration left it.

[Art_from_Ark]

20. I don't know where you're getting your "information"

but a lot of these scandals you cite were in the private sector-- like the tainted blood, which was sold to Japan by an American company
http://www.ahrp.org/infomail/0503/22.php.

Another (or perhaps the same) AIDS-tainted blood selling incident involved a private Japanese company, Green Cross, although apparently some bureaucrats didn't do their jobs to screen it or to encourage the switchover to a safer alternative.
http://www.aegis.com/news/ads/1996/AD961593.html

The tainted BSE feed was traced to private producers, who probably were not aware they were distributing tainted feed
http://foodhaccp.com/msgboard.mv?parm_func=showmsg+parm_msgnum=1009819

You could argue that the Japanese government was a little slow to react to the threat, but it did take quick action when BSE was found in Japan. This is also one of the reasons why Japan was so quick to ban imports of American beef after mad cow was discovered in the US.

The label swapping beef buyback was the fault of a private-sector company, Snow Brand, which abused a government buyback program
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20020126a2.htm


And in response to your question, I have lived in Japan long enough to realize when someone is trying to bullshit me about this country.

[Old Mouse]

23. There were government officials involved in EACH scandal

Why don't you Google and see if you can find out the punishment handed to Health Minister Dr. Abe Takeshi for allowing tainted blood into Japan for profit.

You really don't know anything. The Japan Times? Please!

http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/96/0308/nat1.html

The ministry's documents show that that in 1983 the government knew that untreated blood could be contaminated by the AIDS virus. At the time, most condensed blood products were made from blended U.S. blood. One HIV-infected donor was enough to taint the entire batch. Then U.S. scientists discovered that heating blood products during the manufacturing process killed the virus. In March 1983, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration certified heated blood safe for general use. Four months later, Japanese officials prepared guidelines advising clinics and hospitals not to use unheated blood. But one week later, the ministry reversed its decision. The still unanswered question: Why did it change course?

- snip-

Japan's national broadcasting station recently reported that the U.S. pharmaceutical company Trovenol (now Baxter Ltd.) had written Gunji in June 1983 warning of possible HIV contamination of its blood products and asked help for an urgent recall. The letter was ignored, said NHK. And investigative journalist Sakurai Yoshiko asserts in her book AIDS Crime that between 1983 and 1985 unheated blood imported from the U.S. was sold to Japanese drug companies at 40% to 50% discounts, who then sold it to patients at standard prices.

The head of the Health Ministry's AIDS research team in 1983 was Dr. Abe Takeshi, a leading authority on hemophilia. He had recommended allowing unheated blood to be used. A mother whose son died of AIDS filed a complaint with the Tokyo public prosecutor's office on Feb. 15 asking that Abe be charged with murder. She said Abe had treated her son with contaminated blood as late as 1985. Though he has not been indicted, Abe, now 79, resigned last week as vice-chairman of Teikyo University. He issued a statement saying that he stood by his earlier decisions.

[Art_from_Ark]

35. This is from the early 1980s

You've mentioned a few scandals that have occurred over the past 20+ years (I'm surprised you didn't mention Recruit and the "josei mondai"). During the same time, how many scandals have the Reagan and bu$h admininstrations been involved in?

By comparison, Japanese scandals seem tame, and few and far between.

As for the declining birth rate, they've been yammering about that for decades. I'm not going to get all excited over emergency Diet sessions, because, in the end all they do is agree to continue the discussion at the next emergency session.

[Old Mouse]

39. Knowingly introducing AIDS into the medical community

on a massive scale is a "tame" scandal? (final sentencing LAST year, not twenty years ago) Knowingly introducing BSE into the domestic beef supply is a "tame" scandal?

Give up the google, it is doing you no good. If you don't know about the crisis of the Japanese population decline... I just don't know what to say. Really.

[Art_from_Ark]

21. A couple more things

Do you have even the foggiest idea who "bosozoku" are? And how did they suddenly pop into the discussion?

And what does "dioxin contamination" have to do with population decline in the industrial countries? Any human geographer worth his salt knows that once a society becomes urbanized, well-off and the vast majority of its children will live to see adulthood, the natural population increase will decline as a matter of course.

[Old Mouse]

22. I'm related to bosozoku,

the average age of which is prime for entering the work force and are not. I referred to it tongue-in-cheek.

Dioxin contamination is the leading cause of sperm deformation, which in turn is the leading PHYSICAL cause of depopulation. Hope you don't live near any industrial zones. Japan in addition has cultural issues that make the issue dire. Look it up. 24 straight years of decline.

[Art_from_Ark]

24. You're related to motorcycle gang members?

Sugeee
:eyes:

[Old Mouse]

25. by marriage

he owns three bikes.

[Art_from_Ark]

28. Wow, that's some story you got there

Let's see if I've got it right--

You rubbed shoulders with the elite of Japanese political society, even "living across the street from the Diet for a year". I'm trying to imagine where you may have lived, since the Diet is surrounded by government buildings and parks. Don't tell me-- masaka-- you were a guest at the prime minister's residence! If not, well, I'm posting a map of the area and you can show me where you spent your year

http://map.mapion.co.jp/m/k?mp=35%2F40%2F22.370%2C139%2F44%2F52.919&grp=all&uc=1&scl=10000&icon=map_icon_11%2C0%2C01%2C0%2C0%2C&amap=3011591200153920019&fi=0&el=139%2F44%2F52.951&pnf=1&size=500%2C500&nl=35%2F40%2F22.353

After rubbing shoulders with the political elite, you got a job as a middle manager at Sony. Now, was that before, or after, you married your motorcycle gang sweetie?

Methinks my chain is being pulled. But that's OK, you can pull it some more, what the heck :P

[Old Mouse]

29. You have a problem with trust, my friend

I was a principle designer on Sanrio's Puroland during the bubble economy. I worked solving design issues with the entertainment companies, the steel and construction companies, the sub-contractors and the corporate sponsors. I met a local artist, and we married. Since then I have worked for Sony, ASCII, ATARI, Microsoft... and many others. I suspect her brother has "left the life" since he started a family and as a result is making regular payments to men with interesting artwork on their skin. I'm sorry you feel my life to incredulous to believe.

Someone close to me is a career diplomat, who worked both for the government and Bechtel in Saudi Arabia directly with the royal family, the Philippines directly with the President, and as a US policy maker for several presidents.

[Old Mouse]

30. I lived in the Century Hyatt Hotel

To answer your other question.

Are you actually living in Japan?

[Art_from_Ark]

31. You weren't staying across the street from the Diet

(or Kokkaigijido, as it's known locally)-- you were staying across the street from the "Tocho", or Tokyo Prefectural Capitol Building, in Shinjuku. Big difference, although I see how you could confuse the two.

And, yes, I'm a long-term resident of Japan

[Lydia Leftcoast]

I can vouch for Art_from_Ark, since I met him on one of my trips

to Japan.

He's lived there a long time.

Now as for the whole dioxin thing, the cause of smaller families in industrial societies is NOT dioxin, but women delaying and avoiding marriage.

When I lived in Japan 25 years ago, they still had the notion that an unmarried woman over age 25 was a disgrace. Even in those days, however, it was unusual for couples to have more than two children, especially in the cities, where the 2DK apartment (surely you know what that is, Old Mouse) or the top-heavy house on a tiny lot was the rule.

Nowadays, it's not at all unusual to find single women over thirty or even forty. Part of the reason is increased job opportunities, but there is also the problem of the women having trouble finding men who don't "want a girl just like the girl that married dear old Dad."

That's where the declining birth rate is coming from.

[Old Mouse]

37. Its both

absolutely in Japan the "parasite generation" has a strong effect. Women avoiding both marriage and childbirth, rising divorce rates. You may be familiar with the old adage "marriage is death" I'm part of the problem - a gaijin taking one away!

One recommendation to the government on how to raise the birth rate was simply to teach the Japanese husband how to contribute, even moderately, to housework. They felt this would greatly encourage young wives to grow families. It was resoundingly rejected.

But of the married couples trying to conceive the problem is there, just not discussed.

The effect of dioxin pollution on reproduction is a major problem globally. That's why there is such a boom in reproductive technologies: the equal boom in reproductive difficulties. Japan in particular had a scandal about major population centers being contaminated two to three hundred percent over the legal limits just a few years ago.

Your friend Art_from_Ark infers a lot of assumptions that are perhaps ruder than he intends. I suppose I should be flattered; I did not realize my life interesting enough to be incredulous.

[Old Mouse]

33. Check where they held court in 89

while the new building was being built ;)

Our little band of expatriates came to the conclusion that two years was the breaking point - if you stayed in Japan past that mark you were addicted beyond help. You seem already past the breaking point.

I hope you get stateside often, or your return culture shock is bound to be extreme. The changes in normal American society are as powerful as the posts here on DU indicate.

[Art_from_Ark]

34. Well, the Diet has been "holding court" in the same place since the 70th

Imperial Session, which was in late 1936 or early 1937, at Kasumi-ga-Seki, Chiyoda-ku.

The Tokyo Prefectural Capitol Building was relocated from the Marunouchi district, along the Yamanote Line between Tokyo and Yurakucho stations, in 1991. It (actually, "they" since there are several buildings) have been in Shinjuku since then, in the Nishi Shinjuku area, the same area as the Century Hyatt Hotel.

Any more questions?

[Old Mouse]

36. Finished in 91, in 89 they held sessions

in temporary locations during construction. That was my point. Guess where?

[Art_from_Ark]

40. Perhaps you should tell me

I have checked the official web sites of the "Togikai", the Upper House of the "Kokkai", Chiyoda-ku, and Shinjuku-ku, and have found no mention whatsoever of temporary lodgings for the Tokyo assembly from 1989-1991.

Methinks you are blowing gas.

[Old Mouse]

41. I do not care what you think

I have put a lot of personal details on line in an over-extended attempt at cordiality. I know who I have met and where and at what time. I know who I drank with and in what bar. The answer to your question is in your own posts, but you still ask over and over again, with the same insulting rejoinder. You should ask yourself why it is so important to you to prove my life did not happen. I'm sorry your life in japan feels inadequate to the point you feel you need to attack mine. You should have been there before the bubble popped, not after.

This post has been hijacked long enough on the examination of my personal life and a demand for my credentials from what seems to be an employee of Yodobashi Camera. You believe the diet tells the truth when it denies scandals that break in the press (billions in construction graft, phantom employees, misappropriation of embassy funds, lack of payment to retirement accounts, rice dumping, ALL last year - not twenty years ago, and no arrests to date) yet you believe they lie in emergency session about the rapid depopulation that has global sociologists predicting an extinction of the Japanese people. Really, are you an English teacher in a local prefecture?

[Art_from_Ark]

9. Actually, Japan has a trade surplus with China

1.46 trillion yen-- 14 billion dollars-- in 2004. Quite a chunk of change

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20050127a3.htm

[idlisambar]

11. Yes, that's true for "Greater China"

which includes Hong Kong

[idlisambar]

3. Yes, but the tendency is to underestimate

Trade data is susceptible to some assumptions here and there, but the trade numbers must be consistent with those of trade partners so the degree of discrepency is limited. In contrast, for politically important inflation, GDP, and productivity metrics differences in convention have a larger impact.

[GOPBasher]

7. It'd be nice to have that here. n/t

[Jamastiene]

27. Seems like we almost

had that at the end of the 90's, then king georgie took over.

[DU GrovelBot]

32. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

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38. People don't worry - Japanese Govt debt more than 7% of their GDP

Japan is arguably the most "indebted" government of the great western powers! Its in a completely "fucked" position (sorry for the bad language) but unlike America it can "AFFORD" it!!!
Japanese people "Save" like crazy!! They don't trust their government to spend it!!! Domestic demand in Japan is "nothing" compared to US "Domestic demand"! American "Credit Card" debt versus Japanese "Credit Card" Debt is not even in the same league!!!
It is the american consumer that is in a whole "heap of trouble" not the Japanese consumer!!
When Japanese and Chinese "Bank Governor's" get a real Anti-US "Feel" in their "guts" then the "Bush Gang" is going to be in "Really Really Big Trouble"!
Remember, most of the US borrowings are going into "Wars"!!!. Now these are currently "aimed" at the Muslim World, and that has caused trouble in China as they have more than 50 million Muslims living in their Western Provinces!! But as long as its only Americans "Dieing" to contain the Muslims, then China will keep "Financing" American's homes, SUV's, LCD Televisions etc etc etc !