An interesting take by Pepe Escobar
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GB01Ak02.html<snip>
Asia Times Online sources in Baghdad suggest that the newly elected National Assembly and new government will be very similar to Allawi's: a mix of religious and secular parties, all of them led by former exiles. A "Sunni parliamentary quota" is almost inevitable, for two reasons: Sunni voter turnout was low; and Sunnis must be represented in the drafting of the new constitution. It's important to remember that the assembly itself will not write the new constitution; instead, it will supervise the drafting committee. So it's imperative that Sunnis are part of the committee, otherwise the constitution may be shot down in the four Iraqi provinces with a Sunni-majority when it is submitted for a referendum next September.
The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the Sistani-blessed Shi'ite list that will capture most of the popular vote, has officially dropped its demand to negotiate the American departure. This essentially means, from many a Sunni point of view, that the Shi'ites will rely on the Americans to protect them from the Sunni resistance, both secular and Islamist - as well as from the hundreds of thousands of disgruntled, unemployed former Ba'athists who may or may not (yet) be part of the resistance.
Ibrahim Jaafari, the official spokesman of the Hezb al-Dawa al-Islamiya party, founded in 1957 (the oldest Iraqi Shi'ite party), the third most popular figure in Iraq after Sistani and Muqtada al-Sadr, the No 2 at the UIA list and a serious contender for becoming the new prime minister, has already spelled it out: "If the US pulls out too fast there would be chaos." Jaafari, crucially, also enjoys a lot of respect by moderate Sunnis.
Current Finance Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi, a former Maoist and Ba'athist turned free marketer, also a member of the UIA and strong contender for becoming premier, has repeatedly talked about "realistic thinking" in terms of securing Iraq. Mahdi is very close to some members of the White House's National Security Council.