STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 22 February

[ozymandius]

Tuesday February 22, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 332 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 71 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 127 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1185
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 18, 2005

Dow... 10,785.22 +30.96 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq... 2,058.62 -2.72 (-0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,201.59 +0.84 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.26% +0.08 (+1.79%)
Gold future... 428.40 -0.20 (-0.05%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. Good morning all. I was torn between two cartoons.

[RawMaterials]

3. Morning Oz, Great toon

:)

[RawMaterials]

2. Dollar Down, Gold Up in Europe

LONDON (AP) -- The U.S. dollar fell Tuesday against other major currencies in European trading. Gold prices rose.

The euro was quoted at $1.3216, up from $1.3057 late Monday.

Other dollar rates compared with late Monday included: 103.88 Japanese yen, down from 105.50; 1.1649 Swiss francs, down from 1.1829, and 1.2250 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2333.

The British pound was quoted at $1.9123, up from $1.8960.

Gold traded in London at $430.75 bid per troy ounce, up from $427.10 on Monday. In Zurich, the bid was $431.28, up from $427.20.

Gold rose $3.30 in Hong Kong to close at $430.75.

Silver traded in London at $7.51 bid per troy ounce, up from $7.38




http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Dollar-Gold.html

[MARALE]

8. Dollar falls as banks diversify

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/22/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

"South Korea's news moved the market today as central banks of both South Korea and Taiwan withdrew their bids for the dollar this morning in Asia and that caused the dollar/yen to go lower," Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS, told Reuters. "Various comments add to the whole sentiment central banks from Asia and Middle East are buying euros."

In Treasurys, the benchmark 10-year note lost 2/32 of a point to 97-26/32 to yield 4.27 percent, up from 4.26 late Friday. The 30-year bond shed 7/32 of a point to 110-21/32 to yield 4.66 percent, up from 4.65 late Friday. The bond market was closed Monday for the President's Day holiday.

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The five-year note was flat at 98-12/32, yielding 3.86 percent, while the two-year edged up 1/32 of a point to 99-14/32, yielding 3.43 percent. Top of page

[RawMaterials]

4. Fed's Rate Boosts Backfire by Stimulating Economy (Update1)

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan calls it a ``conundrum.'' Former Fed colleague Laurence H. Meyer calls it ``extraordinarily unprecedented.''

The Fed has raised its target interest rate six times since June 30, intending to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating later this year. Instead, the increases are having the opposite effect: They're spurring the economy, not reining it in

snip..

Puzzled Greenspan

Greenspan, 78 and in his final year atop the central bank, told Congress last week he's puzzled. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has fallen more than 30 basis points to about 4.27 percent since June 30, the first of six straight meetings in which the Fed raised its target rate by a quarter- point to the current 2.5 percent. Gary Pollack, head of fixed income trading and research at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in New York, which manages $12 billion of bonds, says that a yield reflecting the fundamentals of the economy and inflation would actually be between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent.

``Bond price movements may be a short-term aberration, but it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces underlying recent experience,'' Greenspan said in the text of his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 16 and the House Financial Services Committee Feb. 17. ``The broadly unanticipated behavior of world bond markets remains a conundrum.'

snip..

Flawed Explanations

Greenspan cited, and then described flaws in, a variety of explanations cited by economists: that investors are concerned about economic growth amid high oil prices; that bond investors, once skeptical, are now convinced the Fed will raise rates gradually; bond purchases by foreign central banks; that mortgage investors seek longer-term securities because the average duration of outstanding mortgage-backed securities has shortened.

Stock prices wouldn't be rising and credit spreads wouldn't be narrowing if investors concluded the economy was stumbling, Greenspan said. ``This interpretation does not mesh seamlessly'' with what's going on in the markets, he told the lawmakers.

Bear Stearns' Malpass says bond yields are falling because credit markets ``are temporarily overwhelmed with excess liquidity'' in the U.S. and abroad. He predicted bond yields won't remain low if the U.S. economy strengthens significantly.






http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ax4TkYj_nC74&refer=us

[RawMaterials]

5. Keeping a lid on risk

At a time when the economic outlook seems uncertain, these 7 stocks can help balance a portfolio.

GDP growth last quarter is estimated at around 3.5 percent. And economists expect that growth will match or exceed that level in 2005. Nonetheless, there are concerns that such projections may be too optimistic. One recent sign: Leading indicators declined slightly in January.

Investors are also afraid that inflation will revive. Testifying before Congress last week, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan suggested that inflation might accelerate because of slowing productivity and a weak dollar. He also implied that the Fed might have to keep raising short-term interest rates to prevent such a pickup in inflation.

Following his testimony, investors got more bad news on inflation -- the core Producer Price Index (with volatile food and energy costs removed) posted its biggest gain in six years.

snip..

advisor Steve Leuthold recently put together a basket of 40 large stocks chosen from sectors that have held up especially well during market declines back to 1987. Of the stocks that are on Leuthold's list and also in the Sivy 70, there are seven companies that have solid fundamentals and get good ratings from analysts. Here's quick look at them

Abbott Laboratories (Research)

Colgate-Palmolive (Research)

Johnson & Johnson (Research)

Pepsico (Research)

Procter & Gamble (Research)

Sysco (Research)

Walgreen (Research)


http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/21/commentary/mkcommentary/sivy/index.htm

[RawMaterials]

6. Oil Prices Surge on Chill, Dollar Fall

U.S. crude oil (CLc1) jumped by $1.27 a barrel to a three week high of $49.62, but later eased to $49.27 a barrel after Kuwait's oil minister said he saw no need for a production cut at OPEC's March meeting in Iran.

"At the meeting there should be consultations, but as Kuwait, if the situation remains as it is now there is no need to cut production," Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, who is also president of OPEC, told reporters.

snip..
"The dollar moved sharply overnight and oil is following it. If the dollar continues to weaken oil will be obviously higher," said Chris Furness, senior market strategist at 4Cast.

"We do see the dollar continuing to weaken. So oil could be back to above $50 (a barrel) within a couple of weeks even without any major moves," he added.

snip..

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi also said Monday that he did not expect inventories to rise above 52 days of demand cover in the second quarter, when consumption eases.

"There are no indications that the global stockpile has started to build at more than 51 or 52 days (of demand cover), which we think that in the average of the last five years," said Kuwait's Sheikh Ahmad.

"There is no need for action now because inventories have not grown built in a big way that makes us worry about prices in the second quarter. I think these two essential points prompt us to maintain the status quo," he added.





http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050222/markets_oil_5.html

[RawMaterials]

7. The Maestro Changes his Tune

HON. RON PAUL OF TEXAS
February 22, 2005

Nearly 40 years ago, Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan wrote persuasively in favor of a gold monetary standard in an essay entitled Gold and Economic Freedom. In that essay he neatly summarized the fundamental problem with fiat currency in a few short sentences: "The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

snip..

Although Mr. Greenspan is a master of evasion, he was surprisingly forthright in his responses to me. In short, he claimed he was wrong about his predictions of calamity for the fiat U.S. dollar, that the Federal Reserve does a good job of essentially mimicking a gold standard, and that inflation is well under control. He even made the preposterous assertion that the Fed does not facilitate government expansion and deficit spending. In other words, he utterly repudiated the arguments he made 40 years ago. Yet this begs the question: If he was so wrong in the past, why should we listen to him now?

snip..

Second, inflation is a much greater problem than the federal government admits. Health care, housing, and energy are three areas where costs have risen dramatically. The producer price index is rising at the fastest rate in seven years. Bond prices are rising. To suggest that rapid expansion of the money supply and artificially low interest rates do not ultimately cause price inflation is absurd. Third, Fed policies do indeed have adverse political ramifications. Fiat currency and big government go hand-in-hand. Without a gold standard, Congress is free to spend recklessly and fall back on monetary expansion to pay the bills. Politically, it's easier to print new dollars than raise taxes or borrow overseas

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/paul/paul022205.html

[MARALE]

9. Winn-Dixie Files for Bankruptcy

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7699783

Supermarket chain Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (WIN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it filed for bankruptcy, succumbing to intense competition from rivals like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , and its shares slid more than 50 percent.

The company said it had lined up an $800 million debtor-in-possession financing facility from Wachovia Bank, which replaces its previous $600 million credit line.

...

Analysts have said Winn-Dixie would do much better if it scaled down its operations, became more nimble, focused on its highly profitable markets and avoided going head-to-head with the likes of Wal-Mart.

Winn-Dixie said it is continuing to pay its workers, with their health and welfare benefits expected to continue without disruption.

[spinbaby]

16. Another Wal-Mart victim

I think this story deserves a separate LBN thread. Supermarket chains that treat their workers well, pay a decent wage, and provide health benefits are being driven out of business by Wal-Mart.

[MARALE]

17. That is why I posted it

It is sad to see good companies being put out of business. Walmart does this to a lot of companies.

[trogdor]

25. Supermarkets with decent bakeries and delis kick Wal-Mart's ass.

Not to mention good customer service. Wal-Mart competes more with Aldi than they do Kroger or Piggly-Wiggly. You eat out of cans all the time? No problemo.

In general, supermarkets operate on razor-thin margins - always have. Thus, you won't find bargains at Wal-Mart on groceries like you will elsewhere in the store. As far as quality is concerned, since they fired all the butchers because they wanted to go union, you can easily find better meat, deli, baked goods, and produce at any decent supermarket than you can at Wal-Mart. Shoppers who care about those things already know this.

I have found it's convenient to go there if you're already there to buy something else. Otherwise, it just doesn't pay to go there time-wise if all you want is a gallon of milk and a dozen eggs.

So to wrap up. Wal-Mart fails miserably in competition with regular supermarkets on:
Service
Produce
Meat
Bakery goods
Product Selection

[54anickel]

10. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Last trade 82.72 Change -0.83 (-0.99%)

Settle 83.55 Settle Time 23:37

Open 82.78 Previous Close 83.55

High 83.57 Low 82.51

The March Dollar gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Overnight weakness has led to a breakout below the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8297. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .8402 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening in early- day session trading.

The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and is testing the 50% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 132.120. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rebound off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of the December- February decline crossing at 133.241 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.727 would signal that the short covering rally has come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.

snip>

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at .8166. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish hinting that additional short-term gains are still possible. If March extends this month's short covering rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at .8235 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8086 would signal that the short covering rally off this month's low has likely come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight and has broken out above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9586 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this month's short covering rally, the reaction high crossing at .9703 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.



Opening View: A Weak Start to the Week
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=12563&obspage=2

snip>

As for today, with everyone coming back from the three-day weekend, expect a quiet day in terms of news-driving events. The only major economic data due out today is the February Consumer Confidence numbers at 10:00 a.m. Expectations are for a 103.0 reading, just below last period's 103.4.

So far this morning, Europe is lower across the board on higher oil. The dollar is being hammered and gold has logged a gain of more than $5.

snip>

Overseas markets are being hit hard this morning, as none of the 15 markets that we track are currently higher, with the average cumulative return standing at minus 0.719 percent. Europe is really taking a beating thanks to oil trading up near $50 per barrel, and the dollar is being pummeled.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y - 83.49) gained 0.02 points Friday, finding support near the $83.50 area. The old greenback spiked up to 83.78 immediately after the inflation numbers were released, but fell steadily as the day progressed. The threat of higher inflation had traders thinking that the Fed would increase interest rates more aggressively to combat inflation. These higher interest rates should, in theory, make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors due to its higher yield when compared with other currencies. Yet as the day went on, traders decided against holding dollars over the three-day weekend and instead sold the old greenback. This morning the dollar is down over fears that South Korea will diversify its reserves:
Currency/ Last/ Change
U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y)/ 82.6300/ -0.92000
euro ($/?)/ 1.3192/ 0.01280
British pound ($/BP)/ 1.9031/ 0.00960
Japanese yen (¥/$)/ 104.1450/ 0.01520
Brazilian real (R/$)/ 2.5773/ -0.00117
Mexican peso (P/$)/ 11.0302/ 0.00033
Canadian dollar (CD/$)/ 1.2274/ 0.00150
Swiss Franc (F/$)/ 1.1658/ 0.01210

snip>

This Week's Economic Calendar :
Tuesday:
10:00 a.m.: February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (last +2)
10:00 a.m.: February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (last 103.4)
6:30 p.m.: ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index for last week (last -10)
Wednesday:
7:00 a.m.: MBA Refinancing Index for last week (last +4.1%)
7:45 a.m.: ICSC-UBS Store Sales Index for last week (last +0.1%)
8:30 a.m.: January CPI (last -0.1%)
8:30 a.m.: January CPI, ex-food and energy (last +0.2%)
8:55 a.m.: Redbook Retail Sales Index for last week (last +0.5%)
1:40 p.m.: Atlanta Fed Pres Guynn speaks on the economic outlook before the Rotary Club in Birmingham, Alabama
2:00 p.m.: February FOMC minutes
Thursday:
8:30 a.m.: Initial Jobless Claims for last week (last -2K)
8:30 a.m.: January Durable Goods (last +1.1%)
10:00 a.m.: DJ-BTM Business Barometer for last week (+0.3%)
10:00 a.m.: January Conference Board Help-Wanted Index (last 38)
10:00 a.m.: January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (last 0.39)
Noon: St. Louis Fed Pres Poole speaks on challenges to govt pension plans at Culver-Stockton College in Canton, Mo
5:30 p.m.: Fed Gov Bernanke speaks on savings rates at University Of Arkansas at Little Rock
Friday:
8:30 a.m.: Fourth quarter Preliminary GDP (last +3.1%)
10:00 a.m.: January Existing Home Sales (last -3.3%)
4:30 p.m.: Money Supply for last week

more...


USD Stumbles to Multi-Week Lows
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The dollar sold off sharply against the majors overnight, stumbling to multi-week lows versus the sterling at 1.9134 and euro at 1.3226. Triggering this latest sell-off was a report from the South Korean central bank saying it would diversify its foreign reserves, predominantly held in US Treasuries. South Korea holds Asia’s fourth largest foreign exchange reserves, which climbed to a record $200.2 bln last week. This is the latest in a series of reports that many of the world’s central banks intend to rebalance their portfolio’s away from their current heavy dollar-denominated weightings.

Dollar/yen Breaks 104

The minutes from the Bank of Japan’s Jan 18-19 meeting revealed that there was discussion to allow more flexibility in the Bank’s current account deposits target by either lower the target or allowing for a breach. One board member said it would be appropriate to carefully lower the current accounts deposit target, while another said the Bank might need to allow for target fluctuation without lower target. Nevertheless, some board members agreed that it was appropriate to maintain the target by improving money market operations, and that it was difficult to justify lowering target based on decreasing fund demand alone.

Japan’s government, in its February monthly report, maintained its overall view of the economy saying the economy was recovering moderately with some weakness. However, the government downgraded its view on personal consumption, which marks the largest percentage of the nation’s economic activity at almost 55%. Lastly, the report removed currency rates as a factor to watch for in the economic outlook.

Dollar/yen fell through the 104-level to fall to a 3-week low at 103.84. Support starts at 103.80, followed by 103.50 and 103. Additional floors are seen at 102.75, followed by 102.30 and 102. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 104, followed by 104.20 and 104.60. Subsequent ceilings are eyed at 105, backed by 105.60 and 106.

Euro Powers Ahead

more...


Bye, have a great day everyone :hi:

[54anickel]

11. Morning Ozy. Have you been following the articles on Gordon Brown

this weekend? He's making some great headway with China these days, and it seems rumor has it that he's the one tagged to replace Blair should Labour win the general elections in May.

I got a feeling BeelzeBush won't be too happy with that idea, especially with some of the comments he's been making on the West and protectionism against China. This could get interesting.....

Edit to add:

He's the one calling for the IMF to sell gold to China, should the US veto the idea of using it for debt relief.

[ozymandius]

23. Hi 54anickel.

I did catch word of Gordon Brown making rounds in China. Good for him! He seems to be a decent tonic to the arrogant vitriol of Tony Blair. As for playing footsie with China: who can blame him? Everyone is playing footsie with China nowadays. Even without adopting the euro, Britain is just trying to protect themselves as evidenced by Mr. Brown's diplomacy.

aside: it has been a whirlwind of activity here ever since I arrived this morning. I'll try to check in as we take breaks today.

[MARALE]

12. The stocks are free-falling!

DJIA 10,738.67 -46.55 -0.43%
Nasdaq 2,044.40 -14.22 -0.69%
S&P 500 1,196.89 -4.70 -0.39%

[54anickel]

13. It's in line with what the futures were reporting - so far anyway

edit to add blather

9:40AM : Market opens sharply lower, in line with futures indications, due in part to higher oil prices and uncertainty ahead of this morning's only piece of economic data... Crude oil futures ($49.21/bbl +$0.86) have surged to their highest levels in nearly four weeks amid unusually cold weather in the Northeast and concerns regarding a possible reduction in oil supplies from OPEC ahead of its March meeting... Meanwhile, economists expect consumer confidence to have slipped slightly in February to 103.0 from 103.4 in January... The Conference Board will release its report at 10:00 ET...
9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.1.

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.1. Stage remains set for a lower open for the indices as the futures market continues to trade well below fair value... Widepread selling in the dollar against both the yen and the euro has also added pressure to equities, closing the major Asian markets lower and weakening trade in European stocks... Meanwhile, Novartis (NVS) should be in focus after announcing plans to acquire Eon Labs and Hexal AG for $8.3 bln in cash

8:30AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.1. Negative bias still persists in the futures market as investors sift through a mixed batch of earnings and guidance... Home Depot (HD) has matched analysts' Q4 forecasts and reaffirmed FY05 guidance while Federated (FD) has reported Q4 results a penny better than expected but guided Q1 earnings below consensus... FD, along with May Dept. Stores (MAY), should be in focus after reports suggest that MAY has suspended its search for a CEO as merger talks with FD pressed on over the weekend

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.6. Futures market suggesting a lower open for the cash market as investors await a report that may show consumer confidence slipped last month... Also contributing to the negative bias has been a surge in oil prices closer to $50/bbl due to cold weather in the Northeast... Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) should be in focus after an FDA panel narrowly voted to recommend the resumption of Cox-2 inhibitor sales on Friday while reports suggest that Qwest (Q) will launch a revised offer for MCI this week

6:18AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.6.

6:16AM : FTSE...5022.10...-38.70...-0.8%. DAX...4312.73...-40.61...-0.9%.

6:16AM : Nikkei...11597.71...-53.31...-0.5%. Hang Seng...14090.52...-21.13...-0.2%.

[MARALE]

14. U.S. consumer confidence falls as expected

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBA0D9D5C%2D4C89%2D4C38%2D8499%2DA15984F303DC%7D&siteid=google

The board's consumer confidence index dropped to 104.0 in February from an upwardly revised 105.1 in January.
...
The present situation index rose to 116.4 from 112.1, the highest since May 2000. The percentage of consumers that think the economy is "bad" fell to 15.6 percent from 18.1 percent, while the percentage that think conditions are "good" fell to 24.9 percent from 26.1 percent.

The percentage that thinks jobs are plentiful was unchanged at 20.9 percent, while the percentage who thinks jobs are hard to get dropped to 22.6 percent from 24.3 percent.

...
The expectations index, however, fell to a three-month low of 95.7 from 100.4. Attitudes about job growth and incomes over the next six months deteriorated

[MARALE]

15. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Little Changed After Consumer Confidence Declines

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

the benchmark 4 percent note maturing in February 2015 was trading at 97 27/32 to yield 4.27 percent at 10:02 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield, which moves inversely to the note's price, has ranged between 4.41 percent and 3.97 percent since August.

...

``We are starting to see some inflationary pressures come back into the economy,'' said Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds at Sompo Japan Asset Management in Tokyo, a unit of Japan's third-largest casualty insurer. ``There is a bias for yields to move higher.''

Ten-year yields may rise to 4.50 percent by the end of the first quarter, said Asai, who said he may buy some 10-year notes at that level.

...

omorrow's report on consumer prices may not be enough to force the 10-year yield out of its recent range, according to Daniel Pfaendler, head of interest-rate strategy in Frankfurt at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

Given the recent advance in yields ``a lot of bad inflation news has been priced into bonds,'' said Pfaendler. ``We remain optimistic for the bond market over the medium-term.''

...

[On the Road]

18. Looks Like it Closed the Gap, Then

turned back down.

NASDAQ -0.2% at 11:20AM

[RawMaterials]

19. 12:00 Market Update and Blather

Dow 10,734.75 -50.47 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,054.83 -3.79 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,197.56 -4.03 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 42.75 +0.15 (+0.35%)

NYSE Volume 719,832,000
Nasdaq Volume 936,075,000


12:00PM : Market still unable to abandon negative stance midday, despite encouraging economic data, in the wake of higher oil prices, mixed earnings & guidance and a weaker dollar... Feb consumer confidence fell to 104.0, versus an upwardly revised Jan figure of 105.1, but checked in slightly better than the 103.0 economists expected... However, a 4.0% surge in March crude oil futures ($50.45/bbl +$+2.10) due to unusually cold weather in the Northeast and worries over OPEC cutbacks, has kept the commodity above a more acceptable $40-50/bbl range and reignited inflation concerns...

Retail (-1.2%) has been under pressure after Home Depot (HD 40.69 -1.33) merely matched Q4 expectations and reaffirmed FY05 guidance while Federated Dept. Stores (FD 55.81 -0.81) beat Q4 forecasts by a penny but guided Q1 earnings below consensus... Renewed strength in semiconductor (+1.4%) and networking (+0.9%), following positive comments from Smith Barney, has offset modest weakness in disk drive and hardware but selling pressure persists in areas such as financial, transportation, utility, health care, consumer staple and homebuilding...

The pharmaceutical sector (+1.0%), however, has surged following renewed M&A activity, while energy (+1.0%) has extended last week's gains, benefiting from higher oil prices... Materials stocks (+0.3%) have also found buying interest at the expense of a weaker dollar... The greenback has lost more than 1.0% against both the euro (1.3228) and the yen (104.25) following reports that South Korea could lighten up its investments in U.S. Treasury bonds... Treasuries have shrugged off the consumer confidence data and traded in relatively tight ranges most of the morning ahead of tomorrow's more important CPI data...

The benchmark 10-year note is off 3 ticks to yield 4.27%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1119/2058, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1190/1772


11:30AM : Equities remain on the defensive following mixed earnings and guidance... Shares of Home Depot (HD 40.77 -1.25), the last Dow component to report results this quarter, have been under pressure after it merely posted Q4 earnings in line with expectations and reaffirmed FY05 guidance... Federated Dept. Stores (FD 55.61 -1.11), despite beating analysts' forecasts by a penny, has also been under pressure after guiding Q1 earnings below expectations...

Other notable S&P components out with earnings today were Genuine Parts (GPC 43.64 -0.62), Omnicom (OMC 86.36 +0.75) and Brown-Forman (BF.B 49.39 +0.19), all of which beat expectations...NYSE Adv/Dec 1140/1997, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1111/1813

11:00AM : Market improves its stance, embracing renewed strength in the chip sector, but a surge in oil prices minimizes recent gains... A reversal in the semiconductor group (+1.7%), amid speculation of a positive earnings preannouncement from National Semiconductor (NSM 19.76 +0.83), has provided broad-based support for technology... However, a recent spike in the March oil futures contract above $50/bbl (+$1.75) has pushed the indices back below the flat line, as investors show some concerns with oil prices above a more tolerable $40 to $50/bbl range...NYSE Adv/Dec 1307/1774, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1317/1562

10:30AM : Major indices remain under pressure as consumer confidence data dips but tops forecasts... The Conference Board's report has recently checked in at 104.0, a bit better than the 103.0 economists had expected, but below an upwardly revised Jan figure of 105.1, as the current conditions index rose to 116.4 from 112.1 in January... The data, which have been rising steadily, provide support for expectations that consumer spending will continue on a pace consistent with real GDP growth of 3-3 1/2%...NYSE Adv/Dec 887/2130, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 864/1894

10:00AM : Little changed since the last update as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Technology has been weak across the board, with software and storage pacing the way with losses of nearly 1.0%, while retail, health care, financial, homebuilding and utility have also been under pressure... Drug stocks, however, have surged amid renewed M&A activity, while energy has taken advantage of higher oil prices...NYSE Adv/Dec 758/1818, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 754/1865

9:40AM : Market opens sharply lower, in line with futures indications, due in part to higher oil prices and uncertainty ahead of this morning's only piece of economic data... Crude oil futures ($49.21/bbl +$0.86) have surged to their highest levels in nearly four weeks amid unusually cold weather in the Northeast and concerns regarding a possible reduction in oil supplies from OPEC ahead of its March meeting... Meanwhile, economists expect consumer confidence to have slipped slightly in February to 103.0 from 103.4 in January... The Conference Board will release its report at 10:00 ET...

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.1.

[MARALE]

20. Oil Tops $50 on Winter Chill, Dollar Fall

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7701974

Oil prices climbed above $50 a barrel to a 12-week high on Tuesday, bolstered by a late bout of cold winter weather in Europe and the United States and a sharp decline in the dollar versus other currencies.

Tuesday's statements from OPEC members Kuwait and Libya that there was currently no need for the cartel to cut output did little to curb the rally.

...

"At the meeting there should be consultations, but as Kuwait, if the situation remains as it is now there is no need to cut production," Kuwait's oil minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, who is also president of OPEC, told reporters.

"I agree that we don't need to cut (supply) if the prices are as much as this... I don't think we need to cut unless the prices are falling below $35 per barrel, then there is a need for a cut," Libya's oil minister Fathi Bin Shatwan told Reuters.

[MARALE]

21. Market Update [BRIEFING.COM]

Market still unable to abandon negative stance midday, despite encouraging economic data, in the wake of higher oil prices, mixed earnings&guidance and a weaker dollar... Feb consumer confidence fell to 104.0, versus an upwardly revised Jan figure of 105.1, but checked in slightly better than the 103.0 economists expected... However, a 4.0% surge in March crude oil futures ($50.45/bbl +$+2.10) due to unusually cold weather in the Northeast and worries over OPEC cutbacks, has kept the commodity above a more acceptable $40-50/bbl range and reignited inflation concerns... Retail (-1.2%) has been under pressure after Home Depot (HD 40.69 -1.33) merely matched Q4 expectations and reaffirmed FY05 guidance while Federated Dept. Stores (FD 55.81 -0.81) beat Q4 forecasts by a penny but guided Q1 earnings below consensus... Renewed strength in semiconductor (+1.4%) and networking (+0.9%), following positive comments from Smith Barney, has offset modest weakness in disk drive and hardware but selling pressure persists in areas such as financial, transportation, utility, health care, consumer staple and homebuilding... The pharmaceutical sector (+1.0%), however, has surged following renewed M&A activity, while energy (+1.0%) has extended last week's gains, benefiting from higher oil prices... Materials stocks (+0.3%) have also found buying interest at the expense of a weaker dollar... The greenback has lost more than 1.0% against both the euro (1.3228) and the yen (104.25) following reports that South Korea could lighten up its investments in U.S. Treasury bonds... Treasuries have shrugged off the consumer confidence data and traded in relatively tight ranges most of the morning ahead of tomorrow's more important CPI data... The benchmark 10-year note is off 3 ticks to yield 4.27%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1119/2058...Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1190/1772

[ozymandius]

24. 1:07 downdate

------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Market Summary
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,688.86 -96.36 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,045.34 -13.28 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,192.42 -9.17 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277% +0.02
NYSE Volume 950,526,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,208,195,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------

[MARALE]

22. Executives more willing to take career risks-survey

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=7699940§ion=investing

More than a third of the 2,700 global executives, including chief executive officers, chief financial officers and chief information officers, surveyed would consider taking an overseas assignment and another third would consider switching industries in their next career move, the survey showed.

" If you believe things go in 10 year cycles we're going to have a nice run before we hit (an economic) downturn again and people are saying now is the time to capitalize on that," said Bob Damon, President of North America for Korn/Ferry.


The average tenure of a chief executive has fallen sharply over the past decade, making executives take a more strategic approach to their career moves. Going abroad, or switching industries is a way for an executive to better understand cultural differences and improve their skill set in a different environment, Damon said.

...

Close to 4,000 chief executives have resigned since mid-1999 according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. In January alone, 92 chief executives of publicly traded and privately owned companies left their posts, an 84 percent increase from a year earlier, and the highest number since early 2001, Challenger said.

[MARALE]

26. Land's End to cut 375 jobs

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/22/news/fortune500/sears.reut/

The retailer, which is owned by Sears, Roebuck and Co. (down $0.50 to $50.39, Research), said that the job cuts would include 200 full-time positions and 175 part-time jobs and it would also eliminate a number of seasonal positions.

The company said its plans for restructuring include the closing of its call center in Cross Plains, Wisconsin, which will take place on June 5. Phone orders for Lands' End products have declined as customers opt for other ways of purchasing its goods, like placing orders online.

...

In November, Lands' End owner Sears announced plans to merge with discount retail heavyweight Kmart Holding Corp. (down $0.83 to $99.38, Research) in a deal valued at roughly $11 billion. Shareholders of both companies are set to vote on the deal on March 24, Kmart and Sears said Monday.

Sears and Kmart shares were down about 1 percent in midday New York Stock Exchange trading.

[RawMaterials]

27. 2:08 Market Update and Blather

Not looking to good,

Dow 10658.05 -127.17 (-1.18%)
Nasdaq 2039.84 -18.78 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1188.78 -12.81 (-1.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.279% +0.19
NYSE Volume 1,143,753,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,428,652,000

2:00PM: Selling remains the name of the game as losses remain widespread across most areas... Even the dollar, which has fallen the most in four months against the yen (104.18) and declined versus the euro (1.3257), has sold off after South Korea's central bank announced plans to seek higher returns for its $200 bln in currency reserves in regions other than the U.S., likely lessening its exposure to treasuries... The move has intensified concerns that demand for the dollar-denominated debt will diminish throughout the rest of the world...

South Korea owns about $69 bln in U.S. Treasury securities while Japan and China lead the list of foreign investors with roughly $711 bln and $194 bln, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 910/2404, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 980/2131

1:30PM: Not much changed in the last half hour as most stocks remain range-bound in afternoon trading... The S&P Energy Index (+0.02%), however, has recently given up much of today's gains despite a continued surge in the oil prices ($50.65/bbl +$2.30), as the Oil Service Index (OSX -0.4%) has turned negative for the first time today... Even ExxonMobil (XOM 59.10 -0.31), which became the largest company in the world by market cap last Friday, has lost ground as investors book intra-day profits...NYSE Adv/Dec 930/2360, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 997/2080

[MARALE]

28. Who cares? Differing policy perspectives don't change economic outlook

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF3CCB9C2%2D01D2%2D46C2%2D9A34%2D16253DA1A6E1%7D&siteid=google&dist=

The interest rate school believes that rates are still low, both in nominal and in real terms, adjusted for inflation. It's especially true if you look at long-term rates, which are nearly a half-point lower today than they were at the end of last June, when the Fed began to tighten.

On the other hand, those who look at the term structure of interest rates - in other words, the yield curve - come to a strikingly different conclusion. These people believe that because the spread between short- and long-term rates has narrowed significantly, the Fed ought to slow its pace of rate hikes, lest the economy tumble into a recession.

...

But following such a policy might take the funds rate right past neutral and into the outright restrictive zone. This is because the Fed will wind up flattening and ultimately inverting the yield curve.

In the past, every time the yield curve has inverted - regardless of whether the absolute level of interest rates was high or low - the economy has fallen into a recession.

Regardless of which school of thought the Fed follows, one thing seems certain: this economy is heading for a slowdown.

[MARALE]

29. Wall Street stumbles deep into the red

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6ACE0DAB%2D927D%2D4D2F%2D9EC0%2D57A223106085%7D&siteid=google

The Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) stumbled 149 points, or 1.3 percent, to 10,636 as all 30 of its components fell into the red. The slide marks the first triple-digit loss for the blue chip barometer since Jan. 13 and its biggest intraday point loss since Sept. 21.

...

When oil popped above $51, the market sort of gave up waiting for tomorrow's release of CPI numbers and people started to take whatever profits they had," said Robert Pavlik, portfolio manager at Oaktree Asset Management.

Concerns about inflation ahead of Wednesday's report on consumer prices in the wake of news of a surge in wholesale prices last week added to the negative tone of the market.

...

Core inflation for wholesale goods in the United States increased at the fastest rate in six years in January, the Labor Department reported Friday. Read more.

This makes me wonder what the CPI numbers will be tomorrow

[trogdor]

31. Oh, they will suck...

...mightily.

[RawMaterials]

30. 330est Market Update and Blather

Volume has relay picked up and that makes the drop all that more meaningful

Dow 10627.75 -157.47 (-1.46%)
Nasdaq 2031.77 -26.85 (-1.30%)
S&P 500 1185.64 -15.95 (-1.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.285% +0.25

NYSE Volume 1,428,560,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,745,726,000

3:00PM: Major indices still trade near their lows of the session heading into the final hour of trading... One of the most influential leaders to the downside has been retail (RLX -2.1%) after Home Depot (HD 40.38 -1.64) failed to post stronger than expected Q4 earnings and upside FY05 guidance... Rival Lowe's Cos. (LOW 57.54 -1.21), which reports Q4 earnings tomorrow, has fallen in sympathy while Wal-Mart (WMT 52.12 -0.60) has also been under pressure after reaffirming Feb same store sales growth of 2-4%...

Kohl's Corp (KSS 45.88 -0.75) has also sold off following news that it will restate earnings beginning from FY98 while J.C. Penney (JCP 43.37 -0.28), despite an upgrade to Buy at Deutsche Bank, has also been weak... Gaining ground, however, have been shares of May Department Stores (MAY 33.68 +0.23) which has suspended its search for a CEO as merger talks with rival Federated Department Stores (FD 55.21 -1.51) gain momentum... NYSE Adv/Dec 830/2500, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 930/2191

2:30PM: Market sells off as oil prices touch their highest levels of the session... Renewed buying interest in the March crude oil futures contract, which will be replaced by the April contract upon expiration today, has recently surpassed $51/bbl, pushing the commodity to a three-month high... Both the Dow and S&P have now lost more than 1.0% on the day after falling below their 50-day simple moving averages of 10656.20 and 1193.81, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 850/2468, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 943/2189

[RawMaterials]

32. Dow drops triple digits as crude surges to 3-mo. high

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks took a beating Tuesday with blue chips suffering their biggest losses in five months amid sharp declines in Home Depot and Merck and a spike in crude-oil prices above $51 a barrel.


The Dow Jones Industrials Average (^DJI - News) suffered its biggest decline in five months, stumbling 143 points, or 1.3 percent, to 10,642 as all but one of its 30 components falling into the red. The slide marks the first triple-digit loss for the blue chip barometer since Jan. 13 and its biggest intraday point loss since Sept. 21.

..more...


http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050222/5bfac4659dc1e4fe1c2c14bd6b35414c_1.html

Can we Test 10600 ??

[RawMaterials]

33. NY gold stands near 7-week high, other precious up

NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures surged to a seven-week high on Tuesday morning as the dollar dropped sharply against rival currencies, raising the precious metal's allure for investors, dealers and analysts said.

Riding gold's coattails, silver climbed to a two-month peak and platinum and palladium prices also advanced.

By 10:35 a.m. (1535 GMT), gold for April delivery <GCJ5> on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division was up $5.80 at $434.20 an ounce, after backing off $435.60, which was its highest level since Jan. 3.

Gold powered through resistance at $430 an ounce, mainly tracking the euro, with which it has a strong correlation.

snip..

Gold was primed for a multi-week rally, with the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders data showing commercial traders are going long in gold, said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research.

Rallies in May 2004 and April 2003 began when commercials were similarly positioned, he said, noting commercials often gave a better read to momentum than the large speculators



http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH31473_2005-02-22_16-03-47_N22392334

[RawMaterials]

34. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10,611.20 -174.02 (-1.61%)
Nasdaq 2,030.32 -28.30 (-1.37%)
S&P 500 1,184.16 -17.43 (-1.45%)
10-Yr Bond 42.85 +0.25 (+0.59%)

NYSE Volume 1,743,055,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,042,662,000


Close: Soaring oil prices and a weaker dollar coupled with mixed earnings and guidance kept a bearish bias intact from start to finish as virtually every sector closed in negative territory and recorded losses in excess of 1.0%... The Dow (-1.6%) logged its largest decline since Sept. 22 while the S&P and Nasdaq also lost more than 1.3%...

The March crude oil futures contract, which expired today, was responsible for the bulk of today's weakness and renewed inflation concerns after surging nearly 6.0% to close up $2.80 at $51.15/bbl following unusually cold weather in the Northeast U.S. and Europe and concerns over OPEC production cuts... A weaker dollar also contributed to the broad-based sell off and increased the demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as oil and gold, as the latter surged 1.7% to close at $435.80 per ounce...The dollar fell more than 1.4% against both the euro (1.3254) and the yen (104.07) after South Korea's central bank announced plans to seek higher returns for its $200 bln in currency reserves with other currencies, deepening concerns that demand for U.S. treasuries will diminish throughout the rest of the world...

Treasuries, which basically shrugged off this morning's consumer confidence data, traded in relatively tight ranges most of the session but closed lower ahead of tomorrow's more important CPI reading, as the benchmark 10-year note closed down 6 ticks to yield 4.28%... Feb consumer confidence fell to 104.0, versus an upwardly revised Jan figure of 105.1, but checked in slightly better than the 103.0 economists expected...

Meanwhile, Home Depot (HD 40.25 -1.77) and Merck (MRK 31.25 -1.36) were the Dow's largest laggards, with the former failing to post stronger than expected Q4 earnings and upside FY05 guidance while the latter, which soared 13% on Friday after an FDA advisory panel recommended its Vioxx drug be reinstated for sale in the U.S., succumbed to profit taking... Federated Dept. Stores (FD 55.24 -1.48) also kept a spotlight on retail (-2.4%) after it beat Q4 forecasts by a penny but guided Q1 earnings below expectations...

But even though the remaining three S&P constituents (i.e. OMC, GPC and BF.B) out with results today posted better than expected earnings, investors were more focused on the negative news related to issues like inflation and interest rates as this is the final week of significant earnings reports... ..Health care -1.4%. ..Materials -1.4%. ..Consumer staples -1.7%. ..Homebuilding -2.8%. ..DRG -0.1%. ..XBD -1.6%.DJTA -2.2, DJUA -2.7, DOT -1.9, Nasdaq 100 -1.4, Russell 2000 -1.9, SOX -0.5, S&P Midcap 400 -1.6, XOI +0.03, NYSE Adv/Dec 731/2643, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 875/2304

3:30PM : Buyers are nowhere to be found as the market averages continue to chalk up hefty losses... Separately, the Jan CPI (consensus +0.2%) and core CPI (consensus +0.2%), which is expected to show U.S. consumer prices rose for the fifth time in six months, will take center stage tomorrow morning (8:30 ET) following last week's core PPI data, which rose at the fastest rate in nearly 10 years...

With regards to earnings, eight (i.e. BLI, CIEN, DCN, LOW, MAS, SRE, TJX and WMB) of this week's 28 S&P components will report quarterly results before the bell while the Feb 2 FOMC minutes will be released roughly two hours before the close (14:00 ET)...NYSE Adv/Dec 800/2557, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 892/2262

[spotbird]

35. Where's the blather?

Just kidding, I'll read Friday's, there all the same anyway.

[RawMaterials]

37. sometimes it takes awhile to come up with the blather

esp. on a down day.

[Maeve]

36. That looks painful!

:hurts:

Buyers nowhere to be found...