STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 23 February

[ozymandius]

Wednesday February 23, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 331 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 72 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 128 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1186
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 22, 2005

Dow... 10,611.20 -174.02 (-1.61%)
Nasdaq... 2,030.32 -28.30 (-1.37%)
S&P 500... 1,184.16 -17.43 (-1.45%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.29% +0.03 (+0.59%)
Gold future... 435.80 +7.40 (+1.70%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Skittles]

1. that CARTOON!

it is RIGHT ON!

[dbt]

2. Good morning, ozymandius and Marketeers all!

Listening to NPR's "Marketplace" last night, I heard ominous rumblings about "diversification" concerning Dollar v. Euro and how the oil companies needed to make more money than they currently can by basing their prices on the Dollar. Reckon today will be an interesting ride?

"Marketplace" is almost as handy as this thread. Props to all who bring it every day!

:donut:
dbt

[RawMaterials]

3. well maybe but on good morning America

they sad all the same stuff, but fallowed it up with its an opportunity to buy stock's on sale.:wtf: :puke:
I don't think i would fallow that logic until 7000
or so.

IMHO today will be volatile but not much movement ether way maybe a little bit up. :shrug:

but who knows anymore.

[ozymandius]

16. Good morning dbt and everyone!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Bargain hunters will be out today. Yesterday's averages indicate some real deals on individual stocks. So I expect volume to be up. On the whole - we'll probably see some movement into positive territory for the averages. Not much though. The PPI report indicates that companies are charging what the market will bear on consumer goods and services. If the market can bear little in the way of price increases then company profits will suffer with rising producer costs. That is the extent of the wet blanket effect that I see in today's performance.

[RawMaterials]

4. Wall Street Seen Mixed Ahead of CPI

PARIS (Reuters) - Wall Street is seen opening unchanged at best on Wednesday ahead of inflation figures and with oil prices still firmly above $50 a barrel.

snip..

The publication, at 8:30 a.m. EST, of the latest U.S. consumer prices index was anxiously awaited. Investors will look for any clues of a pick up in inflation after last week's surprise jump in producer prices raised concerns about an acceleration in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate tightening.

A Reuters poll of economists forecast consumer prices will show a 0.2 percent rise in January after a 0.1 percent decline in December. The core consumer price index, stripping out volatile food and energy costs, is also expected to be up 0.2 percent, after a 0.2 percent December rise.

Markets will also look for the release at 1900 GMT of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its Feb. 1-2 meeting, where it raised rates to 2.5 percent.

snip..

Meanwhile, the dollar bounced back against the euro as South Korea said long-term plans to diversify its foreign exchange reserves did not mean it would sell the U.S. currency, and after a Japanese Finance Ministry official told Reuters that Japan had no plans to diversify its FX reserves by buying euros.

On Tuesday the dollar suffered its biggest one-day fall against major currencies since December.

The euro was underpinned against the yen though, as Japanese investors bought the single currency to fund purchases of 50-year French bonds. France said it would sell 6 billion euros worth of 50-year bond later in the day -- the world's longest dated government bond.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=GWBP0DAB214LKCRBAEOCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=7711568&pageNumber=1

[RawMaterials]

8. U.S. stock futures pop up on CPI

Falling energy prices kept gains in U.S. consumer prices to a minimum in January, the Labor Department reported. The seasonally adjusted consumer price index increased 0.1 percent in January after no change in December, revised from a 0.1 percent decline. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2 percent. The increase in the headline CPI was below expectations of a 0.2 percent gain.

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4DD1280D%2DED5F%2D4C04%2DA827%2DA11A473C2089%7D

[54anickel]

14. Tame Consumer Price Rise Eases Fears

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7713648

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Consumer prices inched up just 0.1 percent in January as energy prices tumbled sharply for the second straight month, according to a report on Wednesday that helped soothe recent anxiety on inflation.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the Consumer Price Index, a widely used inflation gauge, rose 0.2 percent for a fourth straight month in January, the Labor Department said.

Wall Street economists had expected a 0.2 percent rise in the CPI, both overall and excluding food and energy, but traders had braced for the possibility of larger gains after a report on Friday showed a big pickup in core producer prices.

The producer price report had fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could step-up its so-far "measured" campaign of interest-rate rises to keep inflation in check. The tame consumer price report helped allay those concerns.

Prices for U.S. government bonds and U.S. stock futures rose, while the dollar held steady, after the data.

more...

[ozymandius]

17. It is curious that energy prices factor into the equation

when they are of little consequence to the cost of living. How often are we reminded that energy (and food) prices bear no relation to the CPI when costs accelerate?

[RawMaterials]

18. Its funny really it should read

excluding everything you need on a daily basis prices have just gone up a little bit. :)

[RawMaterials]

5. U.S. Technology Stocks Decline After Motorola Cuts Profit

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. technology stocks including Texas Instruments Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. fell in Europe after Motorola Inc. lowered its fourth-quarter profit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted their steepest losses since August yesterday as oil prices climbed above $51 a barrel.

S&P 500 Index futures expiring in March added 0.5 to 1185.2 as of 11:16 a.m. in London. Dow average futures rose 4 to 10,622 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures slipped 3 to 1500. Nineteen of the 27 Dow average stocks trading in Europe declined.

Motorola dropped 7 cents to $15.22 in Germany. Net income for the three months ended Dec. 31 was lowered to $647 million from $654 million, the company said in a corporate filing released on Feb. 22.

snip..

U.S. consumer prices probably rose 0.2 percent in January, according to a survey of economists before today's Labor Department report. Excluding food and energy, prices likely added 0.2 percent for a fourth month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aagJFUo7EAzg&refer=us

[RawMaterials]

6. Dollar Down, Gold Mixed in Europe Trading

The U.S. dollar was mostly lower against other major currencies in European trading Wednesday morning. Gold was mixed.

The euro was quoted at US$1.3019, up from US$1.2969 Tuesday.

Other dollar rates:

_105.12 Japanese yen, up from 104.79

_1.1879 Swiss francs, down from 1.1948

_1.2330 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2347

The British pound was quoted at US$1.8873, up from US$1.8865.

Gold dealers in London fixed a recommended price of US$424.15 bid per troy ounce at midmorning, down from US$425.20 on Tuesday.

In Zurich the bid price was US$423.90, down from US$424.38.

Gold rose 60 U.S. cents in Hong Kong to close at US$425.05.

Silver opened in London at US$7.23 bid per troy ounce, down from US$7.27









http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2005/02/16/ap1830150.html

[RawMaterials]

7. Australian Wages Rise 1%, Adding to Pressure on Rates (Update4)

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Australian wages growth accelerated in the fourth quarter as the jobless rate fell to a 28-year low, reinforcing expectations the central bank will increase interest rates next week.

The wage price index, which measures hourly rates of pay, excluding bonuses, rose 1 percent following a 0.9 percent gain in the third quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today in Sydney.

Rising wages may stoke inflation, increasing pressure on central bank Governor Ian Macfarlane to raise interest rates on March 2 for the first time in more than a year, according to 18 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last week. Macfarlane said last week borrowing costs would have to rise ``at some point.

snip..

More Jobs

Wages gained 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier following a 3.5 percent annual increase in the third quarter.

``Our wages are going up and it is a major issue for us at the moment in all our Australian stores,'' Gerry Harvey, chairman of Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd., Australia's biggest electrical and furniture retailer, said in an interview. Harvey Norman employs some 3,700 people.

``Employment levels have never been this high and that has a push on wages,'' Harvey said.


snip..


Productivity

About 6,000 Queensland state electricity workers' this month won weekly wage increases of between A$205 and $225, or 31 percent, over three years from July 1, Electrical Trades Union secretary Dick Williams said in an interview from Brisbane.

WMC Resources Ltd., the world's fifth-largest nickel producer, on Feb. 9 said labor costs are rising in Western Australia, with truck drivers getting pay increases of as much as 15 percent.

``We are getting into a period now where there is a danger that wage claims and increases will run ahead of productivity,'' Prime Minister John Howard said on Feb. 11. If that happens, ``it will damage the economy,'' he said.

About 6,000 workers at General Motors Corp.'s Australian unit, Holden, on Feb. 18 accepted an 18 percent pay increase over the next four years.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=amEthkdAcz4s&refer=australia

HMM more jobs, better pay, nicer weather and no *'sh = priceless

[RawMaterials]

9. Chapter 11 bankruptcies on verge of surge?

Investors can reintroduce the phrase "bankruptcy-court protection" to their vocabularies.

After years of a relative vacuum of corporate flameouts, Winn-Dixie (WIN) on Tuesday said it is filing for Chapter 11 protection from its creditors.

What makes Winn-Dixie's woes noteworthy to more than just its creditors and shareholders is that some analysts think it could portend a broader upsurge in corporate problems. Standard & Poor's expects the number of defaults to rise at the end of the year and begin a serious uptick in early 2006.

snip..

Of course, companies can be in financial straits and not have to file for protection from their creditors. But the number of companies that are unable to pay their interest costs and are defaulting on their debts has been falling, too.

Currently, just 1.8% of junk-bond issuers are in default, says Diane Vazza, head of global fixed income research at S&P. That's down from 2.3% last year. Those are very low numbers if you consider 5.5% of junk-bond issuers were in default in 2003 and 4.9% have defaulted, historically, over time, S&P says.

But that's where the good news may stop. Many expect the number of Chapter 11 filings and debt defaults to rise. That's because investors in search of big yields have been on a tear lending cash to struggling or upstart companies.

The lowest-graded junk debt accounted for 42% of total junk-bond issuances last year, S&P says, up dramatically from 30% in 2003.

When that happens, it's only a matter a time before many of these companies begin to fail. "When we see the most speculative of the high-yield (junk-bond) market issuances increase, that really acts as an early warning sign the default rate will be ramping up."


http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2005-02-22-debt-bomb-usat_x.htm

[MARALE]

10. Dollar Gains as Japan, Bank of Korea Say They Won't Sell the U.S. Currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html

The dollar gained after Japan and South Korea said they have no plans to reduce their holdings of the U.S. currency and Taiwan said it hasn't been selling.

The announcements by Japan, Korea and Taiwan, which hold three of the world's four largest currency reserves, came a day after the Bank of Korea sparked the biggest drop in the dollar against the euro in more than six months by saying it planned to change the composition of its holdings.

``They're trying to put out the fires caused by the comments on diversification yesterday,'' said Toshi Honda, a currency strategist in London at Mizuho Corporate Bank, a unit of Japan's biggest lender. ``Today's denials are having an impact, and we're seeing the dollar rebound.''

[54anickel]

11. The Asian Monetary Fund Rears Its Head Again

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

Even prior to the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Japanese had begun to sell the idea of creating an Asian monetary fund to provide regional liquidity. Almost as soon as the trial balloon was launched, Washington shot it down with great force, sending Lawrence Summers, then Deputy Secretary of the Treasury to the region to make sure the message was not misunderstood. In spite of the subsequent travails experienced by the region, the idea apparently died a quick death.

Or did it? When Haruhiko Kuroda, former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance for International Affairs, took over the helm of the ADB on February 1st of this year, he quietly began to promote the idea again. Kuroda has long been a strong advocate of an Asian Monetary Fund, an idea whose time may have come, given the increasingly low esteem with which the International Monetary Fund is held, particularly in emerging Asia, which has long been the world’s major savings repository.

It’s worthwhile looking again at the history of this venture: in the spring of 1997, before the onset of the Asian financial crisis, Japan and Taiwan had offered to put up $100 billion to help their fellow Asians cope with any potential fallout which might arise in the event of a precipitous withdrawal of short-term portfolio capital from their respective economies. The idea was killed by then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Deputy Secretary Summers, both of whom saw the idea as a threat to the monopoly of the IMF over international financial crises. The US Treasury in particular did not want Japan taking the lead in this area because Japan would not have imposed the IMF’s conditions on the Asian recipients, and as a policy objective for Washington, this almost superseded the importance of restoring the region to full economic health.

We all know what happened subsequently. Instead of forestalling global economic instability, the Treasury/IMF proposals helped make further instability inevitable. Ironically, the emerging markets’ crisis that ensued led to American policymakers developing a proposal very similar to that suggested by the Japanese in the first place. By November 1998, the Brazilian economy was so destabilised by volatile capital flows, that Secretary Rubin put together a $42 billion “precautionary package” to shore up Brazil, which had been the ostensible rationale underlying the initial Japanese proposal for the AMF.

more...

[ozymandius]

12. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

DAILY CHARTS - TUESDAY

DJIA: (Last week) The  lack of follow-thru to Friday's robust rally both on Monday and today, Tuesday, ought to be worrisome for the bulls because it suggests that a double top may be in the making.

2-22-05: The "double top" scenario became more of a reality with today's decline, however, notice that the up-trend is still intact. The bears need a close below 10500, and preferably below 10350 before they can celebrate.

-cut-

DJTI: (Last week) It continues to consolidate below resistance. The bears have something to "hang their hat on" as long as this index doesn't close above resistance, and in fact this index may be giving the bulls an advanced warning if they care to see it.

-cut-

Summary

(Last week): Both yesterday and today we got no follow-thru to Friday's robust rally, which is not a good thing! However, sometimes the markets do "pause" for a day or two before they power up higher, so maybe the bulls will show what they've got over the next three days. However, make no mistake; unless the indices overcome resistance and begin to accelerate to the upside, the rally will come to an end by week's end, if not sooner.

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

13. Rio Tinto Increases Iron Ore Prices By Record 71.5% (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aX2VYYC8YUFs&refer=uk

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world's second- largest iron ore exporter, said it will increase the price of iron ore sold to Nippon Steel Corp. by a record 71.5 percent because of rising demand from China.

The price of fine ore will increase to 61.72 cents per dry metric ton unit starting April 1, from 35.99 cents, London-based Rio said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange. Fine ore accounts for 60 percent of iron ore trade.

The increase for Rio, which garnered one-fifth of full-year profit from iron ore, matches gains announced by bigger rival Cia. Vale do Rio Doce after talks with Japanese customers. Nippon Steel, Japan's biggest steelmaker, has said it plans to increase prices to absorb the higher raw material costs.

``It's a positive outcome and people have been buying the stocks,'' said Atul Lele, who helps manages $500 million at White Funds Management in Sydney, including Rio Tinto and BHP shares. ``This may cream off the margins of steel producers and they would need to pass on the cost to consumers.''

more...

[54anickel]

15. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.74 Change +0.33 (+0.40%)

Settle 82.41 Settle Time 00:36

Open 82.60 Previous Close 82.41

High 82.82 Low 82.40


The March Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline, which tested the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8236. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's high, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8170 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at .8377 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 50% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 132.120. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short- term top might be near. If March extends the rebound off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 133.241 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.214 would signal that the short covering rally has come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.

snip>

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at .8166. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish hinting that additional short-term gains are still possible. If March extends this month's short covering rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at .8235 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10- day moving average crossing at .8099 would signal that the short covering rally off this month's low has likely come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally, which led to a close above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9583. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this month's short covering rally, the reaction high crossing at .9703 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.



USD Selling Finds Slight Reprieve
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The dollar regained its composure as sellers of the currency took a breather overnight, recovering to 1.32 against the euro and 104.85 versus the yen. With Japan and South Korea both quelling speculation over the possibility of forex reserve diversification by their central banks, the heavily sold greenback found some reprieve in early Wednesday trading. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off was triggered by reports of South Korea potentially diversifying currencies in its massive $200 bln foreign exchange reserve portfolio. The fx volatility that ensued prompted Asian central banks to ease fears of an exodus from their US dollar holdings, as the Bank of Japan and Bank of Korea both expressed no desires to diversify its reserves by buying euros.

Traders will continue to keep a close watch on rising oil prices, with crude oil climbing to its highest level in 4-mths above $51 per barrel. Also in focus will be economic data slated for release in the coming session, including US January CPI and the February FOMC minutes. The January consumer price index is forecasted to remain unchanged from the previous month steady at 0.2%.


snip>

Euro Retreats toward 1.32

Germany’s February IFO index unexpectedly fell to 95.5, compared with forecasts for a rise to 96.8, and down from 96.4 in January. The business expectations index fell to 96.4, versus a revised 96.8 a month earlier, while the current conditions index dropped to 94.5 from 95.3. The IFO said manufacturing

The euro failed to further extend gains above the session high of 1.3274, instead retreating back toward the 1.32-handle. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 1.3240, followed by 1.33 and 1.3335. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.3375, backed by 1.34 and 1.3440. Support starts at 1.32, followed by 1.3180 and 1.3130. Subsequent floors are seen at 1.31, backed by 1.3030 and 1.30.

Dollar/yen Recovers

Dollar/yen climbed back up to 104.86 overnight, with resistance starting at 105, followed by 105.60 and 106. Additional resistance is seen at 106.30, backed by 106.70 and 107. Support starts at 104.60, followed by 104.20 and 104. Subsequent floors are eyed at 103.80, followed by 103.50 and 103.

more...


Korea Hints at the Inevitable
http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

Today's remark by the South Korean central bank stating its intention to diversify its foreign exchange reserves without is part of the emerging chorus from major central banks wishing to reduce their US dollar exposure, especially in light of an increasingly unfavorable outlook in the greenback.

As the chart shows below, South Korea is the fifth largest owner of US treasuries, grossing $69 billion as of December 2004.



The fact that such a generic remark from the South Korean central bank "without specifying any currencies" managed to erode nearly 1.5-1.7% from the dollar, signifies that global central banks' currency shifting is an unavoidable reality at the expense of the dollar.

Since an expected revaluation of the Chinese yuan next year will allow Asian currencies to appreciate against the US dollar, central banks are moving ahead of the move in order to minimize any currency losses to their extensive dollar portfolios once FX markets react to China's eventual decision.

The issue of central bank currency losses is not new. The European Central Bank is expected to take a loss of at least $1.3 billion on its US dollar holding as a result of the euros appreciation against the US currency. The ECB had already booked a $625 million loss in 2003 due to the falling dollar. The People's Bank of China has the second biggest armory (after Japan) of foreign exchange reserves at $600 billion in 2004. The NY Federal Reserve estimates that a 10% rise in the Chinese yuan would trigger a drop of about 3% of the nation's overall GDP. Several central banks have started the adjustment process into euros since 2 years ago. Russia already began shifting its currency within the past two years from 12-15% holdings in euros to 25%. A move to 50%-50% dollar-euro proportion is inevitable.

The main worry remains Japan

more...


Well, I see that today's thread is well covered again, so I'll say adios for the day and tend to real life Have a great day :hi:

[RawMaterials]

19. 9:40 Market Update and Pre-Market Blather

Dow 10647.93 +36.73 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2039.09 +8.77 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1188.93 +4.71 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.228% -0.57

NYSE Volume 55,922,000
Nasdaq Volume 98,519,000


9:14AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. Positive start is in store for the cash market, with the reassuring CPI report and rebound in the Treasury market (10-yr +15/32 at 4.23%) providing layers of support

8:53AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. Futures market retains a positive bias in wake of CPI report, leaving the cash market poised for a positive start...

In light of inflation concerns that were ignited by the PPI report and yesterday's sell-off, one might have expected stronger follow through on the favorable CPI data; however, market's enthusiasm has been dampened a bit by recognition that oil remains above $50/bbl, that inflation concerns won't go dormant, and that several companies, including Lowe's (LOW), have issued guidance below consensus estimates today... Separately, minutes from the Feb. FOMC meeting will be released at 14:00 ET and will offer added insight into the Fed's view of matters

8:32AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.5. CPI report comes in on the reassuring side with total CPI up 0.1% and core-CPI up 0.2% versus consensus estimates for increases in each of 0.2%, respectively... Futures market has gotten a pop on the inflation data, as has the Treasury market; 10-yr note now up 7 ticks at 4.26% versus being up just 1 tick right before the report

8:23AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

8:03AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Current futures indications suggest the cash market is poised to start the day on a mixed to somewhat positive note... arguably, though, there isn't a lot of conviction in the futures trade as the catalytic CPI report for January awaits at the bottom of the hour... Consensus estimates are for a 0.2% increase in both total and core-CPI...

10-yr note currently +4/32 at 4.27% as Treasurys get a slight boost from follow-up reports that Japan's Ministry of Finance and Korea's central bank said they have no plans to reduce U.S. currency holdings

6:56AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Current futures indications suggest the cash market is poised to start the day on a mixed to somewhat positive note... arguably, though, there isn't a lot of conviction in the futures trade as the catalytic CPI report for January awaits at the bottom of the hour... Consensus estimates are for a 0.2% increase in both total and core-CPI...

10-yr note currently +4/32 at 4.27% as Treasurys get a slight boost from follow-up reports that Japan's Ministry of Finance and Korea's central bank said they have no plans to reduce U.S. currency holdings

6:24AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

6:23AM : FTSE...4979.90...-53.00...-1.1%. DAX...4279.89...-43.32...-1.0%.

6:23AM : Nikkei...11500.18...-97.53...-0.8%. Hang Seng...13957.94...-132.58...-0.9%.

[MARALE]

20. Kellogg, Danone Bet Organic Brands Are `Not a Fad'

``Organic is not a fad like low-carb,'' Aldrich says. ``Sales are growing much faster and conventional manufacturers are under so much pressure right now with higher commodity prices and lower pricing from discounters.''

The shares of Danone have risen 8.2 percent and those of Battle Creek, Michigan-based Kellogg are up 12 percent in the past 12 months. That compares with a 7.5 percent decline in shares of Nestle SA, one of the few large food producers without a stake in organic brands.

...

Sales of organic-food products in the U.S. grew 17 percent to $12.7 billion in 2003, compared with 3 percent annual sales growth for the food industry as a whole, says New York-based consumer-goods research company Packaged Facts. Organic products account for 2.3 percent of total U.S. food sales.

``Price is a constraint for many consumers,'' says Elaine Lipson, author of the Organic Food Source Book, a survey of the health-food industry. ``But people have proven they are willing to pay more if they have confidence in the integrity of organic standards.'' Organic products are generally defined as food consisting of natural ingredients free of pesticides or other chemicals.

I find this interesting as we are starting to raise organic and natural chickens and beef for a little extra money

[54anickel]

21. Shhh. Liquidnet Is Trading Stocks in Huge Blocks (another tool?)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/23/business/23place.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1109169825-6J4oT5kzgdGQGwdZfw4/Ng

snip>

Liquidnet can command such a large price tag because it allows some 350 institutions to trade huge blocks - on average 40,000 shares, more than 80 times the size of an average order on the New York Stock Exchange - rather than forcing those institutions to cut up and parcel out the blocks into small shares, trying to trade the shares quietly so that the market does not move against the trade.

snip>

Traditional brokerage firms face a number of conflicts inherent in managing their huge order flow. Chief among them is suspicion that they use their trading to the firm's own advantage - an issue the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating.

snip>

Liquidnet is selective about its client base, meaning that the firms that trade on it can be assured that they are not being outmaneuvered by hedge funds looking to make a quick buck.

"They are the gated community of electronic trading systems; a select group participate, only blue-chip money managers," Mr. Selway said.

The firm had to persuade customers to allow it to access their book of trades, the only way in which it would be able to find enough orders to match. Mr. Merrin said, "The new paradigm is order flow is portable."

Mr. Wheeler of American Century Investment is the one who describes it as "Napster for stocks."

more...

[54anickel]

22. Ozy, holy $h*t! Did you catch the 11 Billion repo issued yesterday?

The debt has made it to a pair of 7s!!!



It certainly seems to be growing at an accelerated pace!

02/18/2005 $7,689,935,780,269.27


Current
Month

02/17/2005 $7,689,847,469,266.70
02/16/2005 $7,671,700,332,790.18
02/15/2005 $7,674,137,053,033.57
02/14/2005 $7,630,849,109,540.36
02/11/2005 $7,634,843,745,683.79
02/10/2005 $7,629,245,507,947.33
02/09/2005 $7,616,820,218,489.46
02/08/2005 $7,623,393,028,778.05
02/07/2005 $7,619,279,742,372.58
02/04/2005 $7,617,143,521,850.79
02/03/2005 $7,616,792,798,166.73
02/02/2005 $7,623,071,102,004.12
02/01/2005 $7,617,788,851,367.86


Prior
Months

01/31/2005 $7,627,742,597,775.41
12/31/2004 $7,596,165,867,424.14
11/30/2004 $7,525,209,508,979.45
10/29/2004 $7,429,677,448,545.04

[MARALE]

23. Boeing selling piece of jet-making

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/23/news/fortune500/boeing.reut/

The sale of plants employing 9,000 people is Boeing's latest move toward outsourcing the components of its jets.

"If it doesn't fit in with making the numbers, it gets sold, that's the message," said aviation consultant Richard Aboulafia. "They believe the future lies in being horizontal, and only supplying the top end of the food chain."

The purchased operations include Boeing's commercial aircraft manufacturing facilities in Wichita, Kansas; and in Tulsa and McAlester, Oklahoma. The new business will enter into long-term supply agreements with Boeing.

...

eparately, Boeing agreed to sell its rocket engine unit Rocketdyne Propulsion & Power to United Technologies Corp. (Research) for around $700 million in cash.

The deal would expand the line-up of rocket propulsion products at United Tech's jet engine unit, Pratt & Whitney, and spur consolidation in an industry suffering from a decline in commercial satellite launches and fewer space launches.

[RawMaterials]

24. Noon Numbers and blather

Dow 10,672.39 +61.19 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,033.84 +3.52 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,189.90 +5.68 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 42.44 -0.41 (-0.96%)

NYSE Volume 666,352,000
Nasdaq Volume 917,507,000

12:02PM : After the starting the week on a decidedly negative note yesterday, the market put together a modest early session recovery in the wake of the weaker than expected CPI report (headline +0.1% vs consensus of +0.2%; core +0.2% in line with consensus). Inflation/rising rate concerns have played a significant role in the latest slide and this morning's data helped take the sting out of last Friday's core PPI data (+0.8% vs consensus +0.2%). M&A activity (YELL +5.5% reportedly in talks to buy USFC +11.3%) is also a market positive but thus far the buying interest has lacked conviction amid the recent spike in crude oil and some lowered guidance (LOW -1.3%). Given the mixed inflation data, investors may also be waiting for a clearer interpretation of the Fed's take on the subject from the latest FOMC minutes which will be released at 14:00 ET today. Top performing sectors today include Transportation +2.2%, Steel +1.9%, Oil Service +1.2% Airline +1.1%, Utility +1% and Healthcare +1%. Weakness has been noted in Gold -1.2% with Disk Drive -0.8% and Semi -0.6% helping restrict Nasdaq gains. Market internals are positive but volume is running below the pace noted during yesterday's sell off which also reflects limited conviction in today's recovery. NYSE Adv/Dec 2252/896, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1781/1153

11:35AM : The tone has brightened a bit in recent trade as some buy side interest surfaced as the market averages probed morning lows. The Small- (+0.9%) and Mid-Cap (+0.8%) averages are the leading indices with Transportation (+2.2%) the best performing sector (YELL +5.5% reportedly in talks to acquire USFC +11.6%). The internals have improved as well with all now holding a bullish bias. NYSE Adv/Dec 1978/1102, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1612/1266

11:00AM : The morning recovery attempt has lacked strength and follow through. Losses in tech (Semi -0.7%, Disk Drive -1.6%, Software -0.2%) have pushed the Nasdaq indices back into negative territory in recent trade with the negative up/down volume ratio at the Nasdaq also reflecting the weaker tech bias. The other market averages, while still in the black, have edged back toward their session lows. Oil Service (+1.4%) and Steel (+1.2%) are the top performing sectors. NYSE Adv/Dec 2014/985, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1514/1275

10:30AM : Investors had some incentive this morning to forge a rebound effort, knowing that the CPI report was reassuring, that Korea's central bank did an about face and said it has no plans to reduce its U.S. currency reserves, and that oil prices slipped about $0.50 from yesterday's close... Though it is true that the opening bias has been positive, there hasn't been a great deal of conviction from buyers thus far... Relative weakness in the tech sector (-0.23%), and the sting of yesterday's broad-based sell-off, have acted as impeding influences... NYSE Adv/Dec 1905/981, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1396/1278

10:00AM : Market maintaining its stance in positive territory, but not a strong sense of buying conviction just yet... Relative weakness in the semiconductor group (SOX -0.2%) is holding back the tech sector and has the Nasdaq trailing the other major indices from a relative strength standpoint... Separately, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+2.30%) is the winning standout at this juncture as trucking stocks are in rally-mode in the wake of a Wall Street Journal report that Yellow Corp. (YELL 58.68, +3.33) is in talks to acquire USF Corp. (USFC 38.41, +5.05)...

With respect to M&A, it was announced today that Medco (MHS 42.16, -1.27) has agreed to buy Accredo Health (ACDO 41.68, +11.44) for $43.33/share in a $2.2 bln deal to create the nation's largest specialty pharmacy business... NYSE Adv/Dec 1876/721, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1609/851

9:45AM : Cash market gets a boost at the open, although gains are modest in scope.. Participation, however, is broad-based as all ten economic sectors are in positive territory... Financial sector (+0.67%) is assuming a leadership role which, if it lasts, should bode well for the broader market's performance today... The drop in market rates and the presumption that the CPI data for January will allow the Fed to maintain its measured approach to tightening are acting as sources of support for the market's most influential sector...

[RawMaterials]

25. Volume is about were it was yesterday at this time n/m

[RawMaterials]

26. Inflation Fears Fade, Stocks Rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday as investors lapped up beaten-down shares, while a surge in merger activity lifted sentiment and tame January consumer prices data eased inflation worries.

The Dow also got a boost from Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG - News), which jumped 1.9 percent to $53.25. UBS raised its rating on P&G to "buy" from "neutral," citing optimism about the consumer products maker's deal to buy Gillette Co. (NYSE:G - News), said a trader who read the research report.

snip..

"The benign CPI number is the driving force today and whenever you have a horrible day like yesterday, there is a digestion process that takes place," said Cummins Catherwood, managing director of Walnut Asset Management.

Stocks tumbled on Tuesday as oil prices surged and the dollar fell. On Wednesday, oil was down 47 cents at $51, while the dollar gained.

"Oil is holding and not going up any more, although I cannot place a lot of credibility in that since everyday seems like a new adventure, and the dollar seems to be modestly recovering," Catherwood added. "So people are looking around and saying, 'Maybe it is not as bad as we thought.' Merger news is also a good sign and it shows that there is life out there."



http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050223/markets_stocks_11.html

[54anickel]

27. We need to take more of those blue pills (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty022305.html

snip>


Eerily similar, the Yahoo! News report said, "The producer price index, which measures prices received by farms, factories and refineries, moved up 0.3 percent in the month, the department said. But the core index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, shot up 0.8 percent, the biggest gain since December 1998."

For those of you who cannot bear the thought of being labeled a gold bug or having any similarity to The Mogambo for that matter, but still want to participate in the price inflation, a reader code-named Shepardess notes that "The MOST prized possession in post WWI Germany was cooking oil, cigarettes and booze."

- The Christian Science Monitor writes that, "Foreigners worry about the stability of the dollar because Americans are overspending. There's the growing budget deficit, of course. But of equal importance for currency traders is the $617.7 billion imbalance between what the US buys and what it sells abroad. Americans are spending about 5.7 percent more than the nation itself produces. At the moment, the US must borrow $55 billion a month, $1.8 billion a day, to finance its massive deficit in international payments. Over time, the decline in the dollar should readjust that balance, since US exports will become more competitive and imports more expensive." Which is exactly what we are seeing!

- Thomson Financial, an information firm in New York, says that "A boom in foreign purchases of US firms, now seen as a bargain, may have started. Last year, 1,126 US businesses were sold to foreign buyers, up from 1,032 in 2003 and 980 in 2002." This is how Thomas Jefferson came to say something about how fiat money will ruin us and that we will, and I am quoting from memory "Wake up homeless on the continent their forefathers gave them." They will have strong money and we will have weak money, and thus they can buy us, lock, stock and barrel.

- One of the big arguments for privatization of Social Security is that Chile has had personal retirement accounts for quite awhile, and that "Established in 1981, Chile's personal savings account system has yielded an average of 10 percent return on investments. The primary investment vehicles are stocks and corporate and government bonds." This is statistical quackery, and do not listen to anybody who parrots this nonsense.

more...

[mojavekid]

34. 54, You've got me hooked,

on "The Mogombo" he is irreverent, informative, and a very fun read, if I can say that - given how depressed he is! Anyway, I just wanted to say Thanks!

:toast:

[54anickel]

35. Heh, thanks Mojavekid. I've been posting him for quite awhile now -

he can be abit harsh on the Dems once in a while, but hey, DUers have thick-skin. I find him to be a hoot!

[54anickel]

28. Collapse of the American Empire

http://www.counterpunch.org/sale02222005.html

It is quite ironic: only a decade or so after the idea of the United States as an imperial power came to be accepted by both right and left, and people were actually able to talk openly about an American empire, it is showing multiple signs of its inability to continue. And indeed it is now possible to contemplate, and openly speculate about, its collapse.

The neocons in power in Washington these days, those who were delighted to talk about America as the sole empire in the world following the Soviet disintegration, will of course refuse to believe in any such collapse, just as they ignore the realities of the imperial war in Iraq. But I think it behooves us to examine seriously the ways in which the U.S. system is so drastically imperiling itself that it will cause not only the collapse of its worldwide empire but drastically alter the nation itself on the domestic front.

All empires collapse eventually: Akkad, Sumeria, Babylonia, Ninevah, Assyria, Persia, Macedonia, Greece, Carthage, Rome, Mali, Songhai, Mongonl, Tokugawaw, Gupta, Khmer, Hapbsburg, Inca, Aztec, Spanish, Dutch, Ottoman, Austrian, French, British, Soviet, you name them, they all fell, and most within a few hundred years. The reasons are not really complex. An empire is a kind of state system that inevitably makes the same mistakes simply by the nature of its imperial structure and inevitably fails because of its size, complexity, territorial reach, stratification, heterogeneity, domination, hierarchy, and inequalities.

In my reading of the history of empires, I have come up with four reasons that almost always explain their collapse. (Jared Diamond's new book Collapse also has a list of reasons for societal collapse, slightly overlapping, but he is talking about systems other than empires.) Let me set them out, largely in reference to the present American empire.

more... Read the four symptoms of being in a handbasket :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

29. Outfoxed by bin Laden

http://www.antiwar.com/roberts/?articleid=4898

snip>

This policy plays directly into bin Laden's hands. Osama has succeeded in tricking America into spending $300 billion in an unsuccessful act of revenge that has ruined America's reputation while recruiting tens of thousands of soldiers for bin Laden.

The neoconservatives are the greatest threat America has ever faced, and they control the Office of the President, the Office of the Vice President, the Department of State, the Department of Defense, and the police-state apparatus known as "Homeland Security."

The neocons have enormous propaganda resources: the entirety of right-wing talk radio, the Weekly Standard, the Wall Street Journal, Fox "News," National Review, the Washington Times, and numerous daily newspapers.

Neocons have succeeded in intimidating the TV networks, National Public Radio, and CNN. The neocons cannot fully control the news, but they abuse the offices of trust that they occupy in order to spin the news to their purposes.

Any day now, the neocons may orchestrate a scenario that will suck the U.S. into a wider war that America has no possibility of winning. If the American people had the slightest sense of their danger, they would demand immediate U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and accountability for the liars who orchestrated the ill-fated U.S. invasion.

more...

[MARALE]

30. Stocks Are Mixed on Cautious Optimism

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B61C201A0%2DDEF1%2D4098%2D8D25%2D7AFB2956EE4C%7D&siteID=google&scid=1&doctype=2008&property=&value=&categories=&

In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 46.63, or 0.44 percent, to 10,657.83, following a 174-point slide Tuesday. Analysts said a reflex rally was to be expected after the previous session, which most thought had been oversold.

The broader gauges were narrowly mixed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 4.50, or 0.38 percent, to 1,188.66. The Nasdaq composite index was down 1.43, or 0.07 percent, at 2,028.89.

In economic news, the Labor Department reported a tiny 0.1 percent rise in its Consumer Price Index for January, as energy costs slid for a second straight month. The data, which suggests consumer inflation remains very much under control, was at odds with Friday's reading of the Producer Price Index, which showed higher inflation for wholesale goods. While the discrepancy was puzzling to some, it provided a needed lift for stocks.

"We'll just call this 'better than yesterday,"' said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. in Boston. "Last week we got the surprise in the PPI and we didn't get the corresponding surprise in the CPI, which means the raw material costs are not being passed on to the end user with the finished goods, so that's good news on the inflation front. That makes us less worried the Federal Reserve will need to step up its rate tightening."
<snip
This CPI should have been worse, I wonder why it is as good as it is? There is something here that does not feel right.

[MARALE]

31. Rosen promoted to chair CEA

Rosen, 55, replaces Gregory Mankiw, who resigned earlier this month to return to the faculty at Harvard University.

Last month, published reports indicated that Bush would name Federal Reserve Gov. Ben Bernanke to the CEA job. Bernanke was a colleague of Rosen's at Princeton.

...

osen, an economics professor on leave from Princeton University, has been a member of the CEA since 2003. He has done extensive research into the economics of taxation and public finance.
http://www.princeton.edu/~hsr/rosen-cv.pdf <--his resume

[RawMaterials]

32. Closing Numbers and Blather on edit

Dow 10,673.79 +62.59 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,031.25 +0.93 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,190.80 +6.58 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 42.68 -0.17 (-0.40%)
NYSE Volume 1,499,541,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,879,704,000


Close :It was a surprisingly unimpressive day given the gains in the indices...stocks opened higher across the board as a modest increase of 0.2% in the January core CPI eased inflation fears that had been stoked by the PPI core rate jump of 0.8% on Friday...in addition, the dollar rebounded a bit today after Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan governments all said they had not been selling dollars...that eased fears that dollar weakness might lead to selling of US treasury bonds and thus produce higher interest rates...

yet, despite this set of decent news, the S&P and Dow managed to recover less than half of Tuesday's losses, and the Nasdaq only one-eighth...volume was on the light side, suggesting that buyers weren't flocking back and that underlying concerns about inflation and interest rates persist...corporate news was light...there were some decent fourth quarter earnings reports, but Lowe's, Masco, Dana Corp., Dollar Tree, and Jack in the Box, among others, warned for the current quarter...that increased concerns about a first quarter profit slowdown...the February 2 FOMC minutes reflected only modest concern about inflation, with a focus on labor costs...

oil was down $0.25 to $51.17 a barrel...the 10-year note was up 5/32 to yield 4.27%...DJTA +2%, DJUA +0.7%, Nasdaq 100 +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, SOX -0.4%, XOI +0.9%, NYSE Adv/Dec 2191/1139, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1654/1458

3:30PM : Market picks up in late trading...no specific news evident...S&P and Dow at highs for the day, but Nasdaq continues to lag...S&P and Dow have recovered about half of their losses from yesterday, while Nasdaq about one-quarter...this late bounce still leaves most traders unimpressed...NYSE Adv/Dec 2118/1182, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1629/1458

3:00PM : Indices recover a bit more, but the gains today are widely viewed as unimpressive given the declines of yesterday...weak volume is also holding back enthusiasm for the day's gains...the bank stock index (BKX) is now up 1.1%, which is helping the S&P...the 10-year note has climbed back into positive territory and is up 5/32...the FOMC minutes brought few surprises, but did not that core inflation remained low, and that labor costs deserved "careful attention" as the Fed reflects concerns that labor slack may be dissipating...NYSE Adv/Dec 2110/1172, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1616/1452

[54anickel]

33. A bit of settling taking place in the Nasdaq since your post...n/t

[loudsue]

36. Is there a Stock Market Watch thread for Thursday Feb 24th??

I keep looking, and haven't seen it!

:cry: Is it lost??? :cry:

:kick::kick:
On edit:

Nevermind.... :evilgrin: I just found it! :hi: