Leaders of the two largest parties outside the alliance, lead by the Kurds and by the current prime minister Ayad Allawi, suggested Tuesday that they planned to block Jaafari's nomination, and possibly break off enough members of the Shiite alliance that they could form a government of their own. Both groups are skeptical of the Shiite alliance's pledge to secularism, and in particular of Jaafari's pledge.
Jaafari is widely regarded to favor giving Islam the central role in the constitution and the government. Both the Kurds and Allawi are also suspicious of the influence wielded within the alliance by the government of Iran, which provided sanctuary to the two main alliance factions, the Dawa Party of Jaafari and one led by Abdul Aziz Hakim, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, during the time of Saddam Hussein.
For now, the results of the elections, combined with the complicated rules for forming a government, seemed to point to many days of talks and compromise, and possibly even stalemate. Under Iraq's interim constitution, agreed to last year, the prime minister and his cabinet will need the agreement of two-thirds of the 275 members of the national assembly. Holding just a slim majority 140 seats Jaafari will almost certainly need the support of the Kurds or Allawi or both to become prime minister.
If they do not scuttle his candidacy entirely, they are likely to set a number of stiff conditions for their support, not only regarding the shape of the government but also the content of the permanent constitution. At the very least, the Kurds will insist on wide powers for the Kurdish people in the north. And both the Kurds and Allawi will very likely extract try to extract a promise from Jaafari to support a secular state in the drafting of the permanent constitution.
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