STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY SEPT 22....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday September 22, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 490
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 308
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 283 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 341 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 183
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 667
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 18, 2003

Dow... 9,644.82 -14.31 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq... 1,905.70 -3.85 (-0.20%)
S&P 500.... 1,036.30 -3.28 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.16% -0.02 (-0.53%)
Gold future... 382.90 +5.20 (+1.38%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. Good morning folks. Here's the WrapUp.

WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

"The Three Phases of the Bear Market"

E. George Schaefer described the three phases of the bear market as follows:

“The First Phase represents abandonment of exaggerated hopes upon which stock prices were based when they reached their bull market peaks. The Second Phase reflects poor business and earnings reports as they steadily become worse. The Third Phase plunges the market to its final depths as economic deprivation forces many investors to sell against their wishes, regardless of price, in order to raise cash.

Robert Rhea described the three phases of the bear market in a very similar way. More importantly, Rhea goes on and states: Each of theses phases seems to be divided by a secondary reaction which is often erroneously assumed to be the beginning of a bull market. Such secondary movements seldom prove perplexing to those who understand the Dow theory. The reason Rhea says “secondary movements seldom prove perplexing to those who understand the Dow theory” is because the Dow theory student is a market historian and market historians will understand what is unfolding. I have very little doubt about what is unfolding in the bigger picture

I would argue that because of the recent bullishness and talk about the new bull market, we are just now approaching the end of the first phase. The reason I say this is because this is the first rally since the bear market began that has caused such frothy bullishness. This rally also goes to show that the public has not abandoned their hopes of higher stock prices regardless of the already existing inflated prices. The evidence of these simple facts can be seen everywhere from the P/E ratios to sentiment readings, COT data and even current stock prices. The next big break should usher in the second phase of this great bear market. Let’s examine some of the evidence now at hand.

much more

[ozone_man]

33. I heard there was a new cycle theorist.

I may have to read Tim Wood's news letter. I also enjoy reading Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theory interpretations.

[Maeve]

2. The Three Phases of the Bear Market

For those who wonder why the Stock Watchers on this thread tend to the contrarian view that all is NOT well on the road to recovery, I recommend the above link from Financial Sense Online (ozy and I posted it at the same time!)

[JNelson6563]

4. It is an excellent summary

of my view and I will presume yours and Ozy's too from our daily discussions--(as well as many other contributors). The Wrap-up is very succinct. I love the insightfulness and how they are often quite plain-spoken.

I wonder how all this will playout in Treasuries today. I see Gold is already having a party.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

3. A dark Monday Morning

Good morning Ozy, Maeve and all--

Whoo-hoo! Futures are brutal. What a blood-letting and they're not even open! The Nikkei down 463 pts!!! All the major markets are down. Last I saw S&P futures down 9.20, the Nasdaq down 22 and the DOW down 81 pts. Ouch!

Things are not looking so hot on any front for Jr. these days. I'm just sorry so much loss is being suffered is what it takes for the masses to wake up.

This is the kind of day where I may have to peek at things through my fingers, like a horror movie.

Here's to everyone keeping their shirt today... :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

5. It just keeps getting better Julie.

The dollar looks to be a stone around the world economy's neck.

U.S. stocks to open lower, weighed by weak dollar

NEW YORK, Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to open in the red on Monday, dragged lower by a big fall in the U.S. dollar, which triggered steep declines in overseas stock markets.

Stock markets in Europe and Japan fell sharply on Monday on fears the soft dollar would hurt the competitiveness of their exports in international markets. Export-dependent companies like automakers and technology firms led decliners in both regions.

story

FTSE tumbles as weak dollar hits multinationals

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE fell more than one percent on Monday as banks, pharmaceuticals companies and other stocks who receive much of their earnings in dollars were hit by a fall in the U.S. currency.

By 1006 GMT the FTSE 100 was down 53.9 points, or 1.3 percent, at 4,203.1 to stretch Friday's 58-point loss.

story

[ozymandius]

7. Stocks, Dollar Pummeled After G7 Call

LONDON (Reuters) - A slide in the dollar after a weekend call from the Group of Seven industrialized countries for more flexible exchange rates pummeled U.S. Treasury bonds Monday and sent shares tumbling in Europe and Asia.

The dollar fell to its lowest against the yen in nearly three years and its weakest against the euro in eight weeks.

<cut>
"The implication is that Asian banks will now dump Treasuries and so Bunds and Japanese debt will be popular," said Marc Ostwald, a bond broker at Monument Securities in London. "It's also bad news for the exporter-rich Nikkei index."

Asian central banks have been buying dollars mainly via U.S. Treasuries to cap the strength of their currencies. Any possibility that this might not continue would be negative for Treasuries. However, the U.S. needs to attract about $1.5 billion a day from foreign investors to finance its budget deficit.

more

[JNelson6563]

9. looks like I picked a helluva week to quit....

haha anyone remember that line by Lloyd Bridges in Airplane? He said it several times throughout the movie and each time he ended it with a different bad habit/addicition.

That line keeps popping into my head at each piece of bad news this morning, for some reason. Desperately clinging to some sliver of humor in the face of disaster I suppose....how do you think the Irish remained sane through the centuries? ;-)

I'm off to spend a little money but I doubt it will help. Catch you all after open.

Julie

[radfringe]

31. have to do a GAfawww

about the dollar...

came home from work, flipped the tube on to catch the market prices and I was treated to talking heads blathering about the Dollar

they were trying to "justify" the falling dollar as an abstract and vague indicator of a given economy

my first thought "uh oh, the dollar must be in trouble...again...."

meanwhile other talkingheads are avoiding the dollar talk and blathering about the "recovery"

forget the lemmings, it looks like the ostriches are running the market today

[ozymandius]

36. Hey Rad!

Nice of you to drop by. I was gone for much of the day - and really sorry for that because things were really rockin' around here.

While listening to the radio yesterday, I heard John Snow(job) say nothing but good things about the overall economy - how we are poised to "take off" with 4% growth next year. I guess he's talking about the economy of munitions manufacturers.

Meanwhile, two of the Fed governors were laughed off the stage for being so rosy in forecasting future economic sectors. Ha! Ha! Don't you just love it when the audience has a firmer grasp of reality than the so-called expert pontificators?

I thought about you as Isabel moved inland. You okay?

[Gman]

6. The Tokyo Market was down 4.2% last night

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stock markets in Tokyo and Seoul plunged Monday as the Japanese yen's rise to a near three-year high against the dollar and the Korean won's surge vs. the greenback prompted investors to dump export-oriented technology and automobile issues.

By late afternoon, the Nikkei ended down 463 points, or 4.2 percent, at 10,475.10, while the broader Topix sank 2.5 percent to 1,043.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7b320A412B-5336-4DAB-9416-A5C569DA8DCD%7d&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

[ozymandius]

8. Won't be around much

in the early part of the day. Work calls. I'll check back in in the afternoon. Be well everyone.

[UpInArms]

10. dollar watch for the morning

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 94.02 Change -0.94 (-0.99%)

this is not its low - yesterday when it opened in Asia the dollar was trading at 93.76, so this is actually up from its low.

[Maeve]

12. Re: dollar watch and the risks of a weaker dollar

Opening Pandora's box
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When it's all over, Treasury Secretary John Snow may regret what he wished for.

Thanks to prodding from the United States, Snow and other G-7 finance ministers meeting over the weekend delivered a communique that called for "more flexibility in exchange rates" -- a development that the market is interpreting as a blow against China's pegging of the yuan to the dollar and other Asian countries habit of intervening to keep their currencies weak.
<snip>
There is much that could go wrong. To begin with, the world desperately needs an economy that is not dependent, as it has been, on the United States for growth. For that to happen, Asian economies need to see more of a recovery than they have so far. Weakening the dollar threatens to plunge Asia back into recession at a time when the U.S. economy simply isn't strong enough to pull the weight that it used to.
<more>

[UpInArms]

13. gack!

the last paragraph of that article

A more immediate problem: One of the offshoots of the steady dollar buying by Asian countries has been a steady build-up in Asian Treasury holdings. Rates have shot up a lot from their June lows, but they would have shot far higher if it hadn't been for steady buying from abroad. The risk is that the Administration's effort to weaken the dollar will lead to a bit of panic in the Treasury market, sending borrowing costs up and pushing the U.S. economy off the road to Wellville.

is the result that I most fear - the cost of borrowing is the interest rate - that means that the government with it trillions in debt will be in direct competition with the consumer for available dollars - driving the effective interest rates into a climb that will become unsustainable (both by the consumer and the goverment).

[UpInArms]

11. Wall Street Set to Open Lower

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46052-2003Sep22.html

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks are set to open significantly lower Monday on concerns about the dollar collapsing against other currencies. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average experienced its biggest one-day decline in two years on a points basis.

Dow Jones futures dropped 78 points recently to 9,523. Nasdaq futures declined 15 points, and S&P futures were 8.50 points lower. That trading suggests that the Dow could fall over 70 points at the opening bell.

Earlier, Group of Seven finance ministers made an unprecedented call for increased flexibility in currency regimes to address global economic imbalances.

...more...

more talk regarding the "collapse" of the dollar...

[Maeve]

14. Caught in the Credit Card Vise

An Op-Ed article by Bob Herbert on families trying to cope and the vultures that feed on them...Caught in the Credit Card Vise
I'm still paying for groceries I bought for my family years ago," said Julie Pickett.

She meant it literally. Mrs. Pickett and her husband, Jerry, of Middletown, Ohio, are trapped in the iron grasp of credit card debt. Except for the fact that no one is threatening to damage their kneecaps, they're in the same dismal position as the classic victim of loan-sharking.

People used to get thrown in jail for the very things credit card companies can now do legally. While banks and money markets are paying pittances in interest, it's common for the annual percentage rate on your friendly Visa or Mastercard to approach 30 percent.

This used to be called usury.
<more>

[Maeve]

15. 9:47 and Down & Out on Wall Street

Dow 9,557.16 -87.66 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq 1,876.39 -29.31 (-1.54%)
S&P 500 1,027.89 -8.41 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% +0.082

[Maeve]

16. 10:02 and continuing to fall

Dow 9,514.71 -130.11 (-1.35%)
Nasdaq 1,867.33 -38.37 (-2.01%)
S&P 500 1,023.23 -13.07 (-1.26%)

[Maeve]

17. 10:44 and some bounce

Dow 9,559.83 -84.99 (-0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,876.25 -29.45 (-1.55%)
S&P 500 1,026.54 -9.76 (-0.94%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294% +0.132

[JNelson6563]

18. Look! It's (almost) a rally!

Hey all! Looks like I've missed quite a morning so far. From the charts it looks as though things may be slwoing? 10:45:


Dow 9,551.55 -93.27 (-0.97%)
Nasdaq 1,874.82 -30.88 (-1.62%)
S&P 500 1,025.81 -10.49 (-1.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292% +0.130

A big fat OUCH! on that 10yr! 13 basis pts already? Zowie!

Julie

[Coventina]

19. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

Today's reading is the ominous-sounding BEFORE THE END, changing to SOVEREIGNTY. BEFORE THE END has never come up for me before. It refers to the period of time just before the end of a cycle. It is usually a positive time, but not today. The changing lines are quite negative, "You do not see clearly all of the implications and consequences of your actions. Any actions will bring you problems and, perhaps, disgrace. The continuing pursuit of your aim will bring you frustration because it cannot be achieved within your current situation."

SOVEREIGNTY is a very positive hexagram. I'm not sure how to explain why it is positioned after a negative version of BTE. Ching says, "Your position has become one of authority within the situation of your inquiry." Is Ching saying that the DU marketeers have reached a level of knowledge that puts them in league with professional economists? I truly do believe that. The level of discourse on this thread is something I've always admired. We have really bright people here, and I think the stock watch thread is one of the brightest stars in DU's crown. I strongly suspect that this thread has more influence than Rad could have ever imagined!

Well, it looks like it is going to be a down day, I don't need an oracle to predict that!

Take care everyone!

[mrsteve]

20. 11:30 - Hope springs eternal as things begin to move up

Slowly off the days lows -

Dow 9,559.06 -85.76 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,878.94 -26.76 (-1.40%)
S&P 500 1,023.77 -12.54 (-1.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.296% +0.134

Yahoo Finance says:
"11:00AM: Indices continues to pare their losses as the Nasdaq finds support above its 50 period simple moving average, at 1870... The recovery effort, however, seems to be more a function of stocks working their way off their lows, instead of a broad-based rally launched by an influential industry group... Transportation, retail, financial, biotech, technology, and cyclicals are still down by more than 1%... Elsewhere, the dollar's freefall against the yen has also dragged the treasury market lower...
Compounding the concern over foreign investors fleeing treasures have been comments from Fed Governor Bernanke... The FOMC member said that Q3 looks like a "very strong quarter," and that he sees a "definite pick-up in growth"..."

Wasn't that last paragraph what we were talking about on Friday? "concern over foreign investors fleeing treasures"?

[JNelson6563]

21. it's like we're seers

or something. heh heh

Isn't it funny how we see this stuff coming and "experts" often do not? I think they see it but don't like to talk about it till it's happening. Of course the Wrap-up calls it like it is. No cheer-leading there.

12:01 and the severe beating has resumed it appears:

Dow 9,543.69 -101.13 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 1,874.83 -30.87 (-1.62%)
S&P 500 1,021.74 -14.56 (-1.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.316% +0.154

Is that a stampede I hear in the bond pits?

Julie

[mrsteve]

22. Yahoo finance spin, spin, spin...

"12:00PM: The good vibe associated with the past week's trade has come to an abrupt end in the morning session as traders have used distressing headlines about the dollar as an opportunity to lighten positions... At the G-7 meeting this weekend, finance ministers agreed upon a flexible exchange rates policy, which signals that Japan will allow the yen to extend its climb as the economy pulls itself out of its slump... Such news has launched the yen to an almost 3-year high against the dollar, and also put the euro ahead of the greenback in the early trade...
Concerns over the effects the rising yen will have on exports has sent the Nikkei spiraling, closing lower by 4.2% for its biggest point fall in two years... The US equity market has followed its lead, although the indices have dropped by comparatively less (down 1.0-1.5%)...
Briefing.com would stress that the dollar's weaker position is in no way a negative for US stocks or business - as the profits of multi-national companies are boosted by a lower dollar - and that the market's bearish reaction is more indicative of worries surrounding the overextended nature of the indices rather than fears over the dollar's drop..."

Yeah, but what about the the structural inflation us little guys pay for currency devaluation, huh? Even as "as the profits of multi-national companies are boosted by a lower dollar" I still have to pay more for a lot of things as the dollar falls, and although multi-national profits are boosted those bastards are still laying people off.

We lose coming and going.

[On the Road]

23. Still Holding My Short Funds

Have lost a little the last few weeks, but the market is overvalued in late September with all the goods news factored in. One month from now I'm sure it will be lower. If you've bought, sell.

Just my opinion. I'm sure the bear market is not over. It just required enough compalcency to set in. Like right now.

[Maeve]

24. 1:32 and staying low

Dow 9,540.19 -104.63 (-1.08%)
Nasdaq 1,877.04 -28.66 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,022.32 -13.98 (-1.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.293% +0.131

[mrsteve]

25. 1:30 - sideways at the bottom of the pond

No real rise seen since 10:30 climb off the day's lows -

Dow 9,535.13 -109.69 (-1.14%)
Nasdaq 1,876.28 -29.42 (-1.54%)
S&P 500 1,021.78 -14.53 (-1.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289% +0.127

Yahoo Finance Analysis:
"1:00PM: Market seems to be spinning its wheels in negative territory as investors' attention remains focused squarely on stocks' lofty P/E multiples... Journalists have cited the dollar's plummet in the aftermath of the G-7 conference, but the real story remains the heightened levels of the indices - all of which were around 52-week highs prior to today's action...
The beginning of the September preannouncement season, combined with what has been a seasonally weak period for stocks, has increased the tendency to sell...
As such, a round of upbeat economic commentary from Fed Governors Bernanke and Guynn has been dismissed..."

Ha! "...upbeat economic commentary from Fed Governors...has been dismissed". Welcome the real world, boys.

[mrsteve]

26. 1:52 - not much change

Dow 9,547.62 -97.20 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,878.23 -27.47 (-1.44%)
S&P 500 1,023.04 -13.27 (-1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277% +0.115

Yahoo Finance unimpressed also:
"1:30PM: Stock market remains on the defensive as sellers continue to exert their considerable influence over the proceedings... Not surprisingly, defensive-oriented groups have fared better than growth-oriented groups in today's session as traders have rushed to lock profits in the best-performing groups... As such, areas such as health care, drug, and industrial conglomerates have held up better relative to the broader market..."

[Sagan]

27. lurch

as of 1:35pm CST


Dow 9,508.53 -136.29 (-1.41%)
Nasdaq 1,868.25 -37.45 (-1.97%)
S&P 500 1,019.09 -17.22 (-1.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.272% +0.110
NYSE Volume 887,310,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,277,482,000

[Sagan]

28. bit of a bounce

as of 2:17pm CST

Dow 9,531.48 -113.34 (-1.18%)
Nasdaq 1,870.26 -35.44 (-1.86%)
S&P 500 1,020.74 -15.57 (-1.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.232% +0.070
NYSE Volume 1,007,132,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,423,559,000

[ozymandius]

29. At 3:32 still a triple-figure loss on the Dow

DJIA 9,532.18 -112.64 (-1.17%)
NASDAQ 1,871.55 -34.15 (-1.79%)
S&P 500 1,021.28 -15.02 (-1.45%)
10yr Note 4.16% UNCH

[ozymandius]

30. U.S. stocks come under pressure

Dollar under the gun; Treasury bonds plunge

The dollar's tumble followed a statement after a weekend meeting of finance ministers of the world's top industrial nations, which endorsed flexibility in exchange rates. The greenback plunged to its lowest levels against the Japanese currency since January 2000.

"We're seeing a reflex reaction to the G-7 statement. The market is telling you that it's very concerned about the dollar," remarked Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan Beck & Co.

<cut>
"The worry in the financial markets relates more to concerns over how the dollar's weakness will affect international capital flows than to its potential effects on the U.S. economy. Big budgets and trade deficits are at the root of these worries," Crescenzi said.

"An important factor working against extensive weakening in the dollar is the fact that the G-7 statement contained no enforcement mechanism nor did it indicate that the policies that have artificially boosted the dollar against Asian currencies have been changed," the strategist concluded.

story

[ozymandius]

32. Stocks Stumble, Undermined by Dollar Drop

9 minutes ago

By Elizabeth Lazarowitz

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled in late afternoon on Monday after a call by the world's richest nations for more flexible exchange rates sparked a sell-off in the dollar that ignited fears that overseas investors would flee U.S. assets.

<cut>
The G7 comments sparked speculation that Japan would not be as aggressive about selling yen and buying dollars to keep down the value of its currency and would have less appetite for U.S. securities. Asian central banks have been massive buyers of U.S. Treasuries and agency debt in recent years.

story

[JNelson6563]

34. closing numbers

Market Summary

Dow 9,535.41 -109.41 (-1.13%)
Nasdaq 1,874.47 -31.23 (-1.64%)
S&P 500 1,022.79 -13.51 (-1.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.241% +0.079



Not as bad as I thought things would end up. See you all in the AM!

Julie

[ozymandius]

35. final numbers

DJIA 9,535.41 -109.41 (-1.13%)
Nasdaq 1,874.47 -31.23 (-1.64%)
S&P 500 1,022.79 -13.51 (-1.30%)
10 yr bond 4.24% +0.08 (+1.90%)
Gold 388.30 +5.50 (+1.44%)