STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY SEPT 23....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 23, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 489
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 309
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 284 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 342 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 184
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 668
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 22, 2003

Dow... 9,535.41 -109.41 (-1.13%)
Nasdaq... 1,874.62 -31.08 (-1.63%)
S&P 500.... 1,022.82 -13.48 (-1.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% +0.08 (+1.90%)
Gold future... 388.30 +5.40 (+1.41%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[VermontDem2004]

1. Wow, I am no stock market expert

but the stock market doesn't look like it is surging according to the media. Maybe I am reading the charts wrong.

[ozymandius]

5. Maybe the media reports are just outright fraudulent.

They say surge? I wonder if it is possible to surge downward.

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning everyone. Wanna WrapUp?

The Real Bull Market

Coffee prices are up this year and so is the price of wheat, sugar, lead, copper, oil, natural gas, platinum, gold and silver. Since hitting a bottom in the summer of 2001, commodity prices in general have done nothing but head north. We are starting to see prices for raw materials that haven’t been seen in years--if not decades. Investors aren’t sure whether this is a temporary cyclical upturn or the beginning of a real bull market. I am of the opinion that this new bull market in commodities is the “real thing.” It is being driven by two crosscurrents; a migration out of paper and a migration of economic power from the west to the east.

<cut>
The "Big One"

As to why we are entering into a new prolonged bull market in hard assets I return to its two main driving forces: a transition out of paper assets and Asia’s reawaking. As to the first trend which is paper asset depreciation, it is important to understand the words inflation and deflation. They are both consequences of monetary policy. There is a lot of confusion today when it comes to the meaning of the word deflation. Falling prices aren’t deflation. Falling prices are the natural economic outcome to increased production. The ability to produce better and more widgets brings with it lower prices. It is the natural consequence of economic law. In this regard when there are more goods that can be produced at a lower price, the consumer and the world are better off. This is a good thing, not a bad thing as the left and socialist planners would have you believe. Lower prices as a result of more productive goods produced helps to offset lower wage growth. It is a natural consequence to lower wage growth and labor costs that help offset and balance the economic equation.

On the other hand, deflation as a result of monetary policy occurs only when the supply of money and credit contract within an economy. In this regard there is no evidence anywhere of this occurring. Look at the graphs below of M3. It is still expanding, not contracting. As long as the Fed or any other central bank for that matter has the ability to print money there will always be inflation somewhere within the economy. The three charts below of the U.S. money supply, trade deficit, and the dollar are all three related.

Today's Market

Back at the casino it was a losing day for the markets as traders digested the import of this weekend’s G7 meeting. The major indexes suffered their worst losses in seven weeks as a result of the freefall in the dollar. The markets are now realizing that the biggest threat to the post-bubble economy is a sharp decline in the dollar. The dollar hit a three-year low against the Japanese yen. The greenback also fell sharply against other Asian currencies and the Euro. The fall in the dollar hit all major indexes across the globe beginning in Asia where the Nikkei fell 4.24 5 in today’s trading. European stock indexes suffered through losses that ranged from 2.5-3.4%. Technology stocks and financial stocks were among the hardest hit by today’s market decline. Financials fell over fears that without foreign intervention interest rates will start rising in the U.S. again.

beaucoup de details

[Maeve]

3. Well, look at that! A phrase finally entering the media..

And in a "we're on the road to recovery" story, at that. See the bold type below

Fed: Recovery is 'falling into place'
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn said Monday that the pieces for a more solid, broad-based U.S. recovery were "falling into place," although it appeared the economy was still losing jobs.
"Although all sectors have not bounced back as fast or as strongly as we might have liked, the fundamental pieces of a more balanced expansion seem to be falling into place," Guynn told the Meninak Club in Jacksonville, Florida
<snip>
However, he also acknowledged the economy had yet to generate jobs despite signs of faster growth.

"The 'job loss' recovery we've been in has been painful and frustrating for many, and the most recent data and anecdotal reports suggest it's likely not over yet," Guynn said.
<more>

[JNelson6563]

6. Rad would be proud

"job loss" recovery eh? I love it. At least they are being more accurate.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

4. Major Pie-hole alert this AM

With Chimpy goin' down to the UN and playin' the rootin' tootin' cowboy 10 bucks says lots of foreign investments leave our shores today if he doles out another poke in the eye with a dirty stick to the international community.

I'm not feeling optimistic on this.

Julie

[ozymandius]

7. Good morning Julie, Maeve and everyone.

How could this Piehole Alert be more alarming? Bush in NY - at the UN - and there's a worry that foreign investment will dry up. I agree with you Julie. I cannot see how Bush playing rootin' tootin' cowboy in front of a bunch of "foreigners" can do any good.

I wonder if he will mention something about "fake religion".

[ozymandius]

8. Nightmare on Wall Street?

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The market's worrying about the dollar ... this is a movie that Wall Street has definitely seen before.

With this weekend's communique from G-7 finance ministers meeting in Dubai pressing, in effect, for a weaker greenback, investors are again imagining ways that everything could go horribly wrong. The nightmare scenario: The dropping dollar leads to heavy selling of U.S. assets, which sends the dollar lower still -- leading to even more selling. The whole thing begins to spiral in on itself, financial markets seize up and the world is plunged into recession.

Behind all this fretting is the deep imbalance between the United States and the rest of the world. America is a nation of debtors, and its trading partners abroad are its bank. And just like a bank that's extended you a mortgage, the rest of the world owns a fair sized chunk of America. The surest sign of this? The current account deficit, the gap in the United States' trade in goods and services with the rest of the world, has swollen to 5.1 percent of gross domestic product.

<cut>
So something has to give, and the natural transmission point is the dollar. That falls, and the U.S. suddenly has much less buying power, and its exports are much cheaper. Unfortunately, experience from emerging markets suggests that such current account adjustments usually end with currency crashes.

story

[ozymandius]

9. US stocks to open slightly higher, brokerages help

NEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to open flat to slightly higher on Tuesday after a batch of strong earnings reports from Wall Street brokerages helped offset concerns about a weak dollar.

Wall Street heavyweights Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS.N , Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. LEH.N and Morgan Stanley MWD.N all reported higher quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.

Shares of Morgan Stanley and Lehman both rose in active pre-market trading on Instinet, while those of Goldman Sachs declined on light volume.

Wall Street's attention was also fixed on the dollar, which plunged in value and raised fears that overseas investors would curb buying of U.S. assets. The slide followed an appeal by the world's richest nations for more flexible exchange rates over the weekend.

more story

[Maeve]

10. As expected, the market opens in the black

But whither today, we cannot say...

Dow 9,549.65 +14.24 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,879.35 +4.73 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,024.15 +1.33 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263% +0.022

[Maeve]

12. Maybe I should have used "wither" instead of "whither"

Since the stock market seems to be shriveling up...

Dow 9,531.13 -4.28 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,876.36 +1.74 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,022.44 -0.37 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.260% +0.019

[Maeve]

13. We have bounce at 9:48

Dow 9,548.18 +12.77 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,879.97 +5.35 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,023.91 +1.09 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257% +0.016

So I guess we're back to "whither"...

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

shows continued instability - with no clearly "supported" benchmark

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 93.83 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

[ozymandius]

14. 10:47 tepid update

DJIA 9,551.48 16.07 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 1,890.09 15.47 (0.83%)
S&P 500 1,025.40 2.58 (0.25%)
10yr Note 4.22% 0.05

[Maeve]

16. 11:15 and wither

Dow 9,527.62 -7.79 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,885.61 +10.99 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,022.81 -0.01 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.252% +0.011

Anyone want to calculate the Pie-hole Effect?

on edit: the drop was approximately 50 points on the DOW, from 9573 at 10:30 to 9523 before 11--am trying to find radfringe's "Rectum Scale" to give a reading on that!

[radfringe]

20. piehole calculation

1 piehole = 20 point drop in the DOW

so a 50 point drop would be 2-1/2 pieholes

am expecting a delayed reaction as marketeers digest the "speech" and UN reaction

[Maeve]

23. Thank you!

I take it Isabel didn't do too much damage to you and yours, for which we are grateful. :hi:

There was a further 13 point drop before recovery, so we should award the UN speech a full 3 Pieholes. Volume is moderate--the bg money doesn't seem to be playing this week. Maybe it's somewhere else...

[trogdor]

25. Waiting for employment numbers on Friday PM.

Monday morning should be BAD.

[salin]

15. Are we back in the time of Bush speaks and the market drops

is that not a bit of a drop after shrubbies performance began being aired on cable news?

[JNelson6563]

18. looks that way Salin

When I saw Annan speaking the DOW was flirting with +30. Soon after shrubbie leaves the podium we are:


Dow 9,524.11 -11.30 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,884.17 +9.55 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,022.93 +0.11 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.253% +0.012


Guess the Street wasn't impressed with the same ol' mantras. I wasn't either.

Julie

[jamesinca]

17. Good morning all

I won't be able to stop back in until late Pacific time, so in advance I say thank you to the responses I will get.

Can somebody explain to me the dynamic between foreign currency, namely the Euro and Yen and the stock markets? I have been under the impression that the stronger the economy, the better our currency does against the other world currencies. I have also been under the impression that the stock markets have been an indicator, to some degree, of the health of the national economy. The Yen and the Euro have gotten stronger in the last few weeks against the dollor, but the markets have been trending in an upward direction. The Yen is doing well right now, the Euro is back to where it was at the time of May 1, the infamous carrier landing. The DOW is up just about 600 points since then. They seem to moving in opposite directions and to me that just does not seem to make sense based on my previously stated impressions.

[radfringe]

19. I've got guys on my roof

fixing the chimney :)

they were suppose to come last friday, but the hurricane put a damper on that

anywhoooooo - marketeers seemed to be holding their breath during whistleass's speech at the UN... not as bad as a drop due to the piehole effect

will we see a delayed reaction? DIVE DIVE DIVE or BUY BUY BUY or will they just shrug and continue doodling around?

here's my take on the Whistleass's speech -

Overall, the speech was all over the place, aids, Iraq, WMD's, Palestine, Afghanistan, terra-terra-terra, sex-trade/slavery. No clear direction (why am I not surprised)

Several times the whistleass when mentioning torture, death, WMD's, (booga-booga) he had to surpress several smirks

He also paused several times as if expecting to be interupted by spontaneous cheering and clapping.... didn't anyone tell him that they were unable to pack the UN with selected GOPer cheerleaders?

For most of the speech he looked like a deer in the headlights

at the conclusion he exposes his greatest arrogance by reminding the UN of their purpose

------

my opinion on the whole speech - it's a bust, weak, directionless and stinks of arrogance

[mrsteve]

22. Okay, so was the piehole drop at 10:30 am?

'Cause from 10:30 to 11:00 the Dow dropped about 55 points.

From 11:00 to roughly 11:45 it dropped another 10, before recovering the 10 in the last 30 minutes.

Can't Wall Street convince * to keep his mouth shut? :evilgrin:

[mrsteve]

21. 12:25 - checking in with numbers

Dow 9,537.65 +2.24 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,885.89 +11.27 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,024.52 +1.70 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.242% +0.001

Up and down this morning - generally down, though.

Yahoo Finance assessment of the morning...
"12:00PM: Countervailing forces have left the market in a holding pattern this morning...dollar anxieties, an earnings warning from Verizon (VZ 32.94 -1.77), and general concerns that late September can be a tough time for the market, have prevented the buying on weakness crowd from generating any appreciable bounce after yesterday's losses...
The VZ warning has the telecommunications sector down, while an upgrade by Merrill Lynch to "buy" on Marriott (MAR 44.70 +2.20) has hotels higher...there were no economic releases today, and none are due tomorrow...
there are no earnings releases of note after the close today or tomorrow...volume is moderate and advancers are slightly ahead of decliners...a quiet day that is perhaps more noteworthy for the bounce that is not happening than anything else..."

(on edit: fixed time for time zone)

[mrsteve]

24. 1:00 numbers - Yahoo Fi looks for increases for the afternoon

although they don't have a reason other than "It's been happening lately"

Dow 9,531.06 -4.35 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,884.96 +10.34 (+0.55%)
S&P 500 1,023.90 +1.08 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% +0.003

Yahoo Finance Updates
"12:30PM: Dow comes off its lows and we'll be watching for an afternoon drift higher...that has been a fairly frequent Tuesday occurrence the past couple of months, although there is nothing specific to simulate it today...volume remains decidedly moderate and the most actives reflect that lack of big news..."

(on edit: stale numbers - gotta remember to hit the refresh button :silly: )

[mrsteve]

26. Almost 2:00 - and the piehole recovery for the day is nearly complete

Dow 9,551.98 +16.57 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,890.38 +15.76 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,026.11 +3.29 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.230% -0.011

On the rise for the just over the last two hours.

[ozymandius]

27. 2:32 figures - pale and thin

DJIA 9,540.82 5.41 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 1,888.95 14.33 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,025.37 2.55 (0.25%)
10yr Note 4.22% 0.05

[mrsteve]

28. 2:55 - A Tale of Two Indexes

A different day between the Dow and Nasdaq:

Dow 9,558.64 +23.23 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,893.40 +18.78 (+1.00%)
S&P 500 1,027.47 +4.65 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.221% -0.020

Yahoo Finance spells out the differences
2:30PM: A pretty listless afternoon as the indices have been unable to tack on significant gains...
The Dow, in particular, has lagged the other indices on account of sizable losses in SBC Communications (SBC 22.26 -1.14), IBM (IBM 90.76 -0.63), and Honeywell (HON 27.02 -0.58)... SBC has fallen in sympathy with Verizon Communications (VZ 32.86 -1.85) after it warned for FY03 (Dec)...
Conversely, the Nasdaq has led the blue chip averages on a relative basis, and tacked on almost another 1% to its already up 40% year-to-date performance..."

[JNelson6563]

29. Hey everybody!

'K I'm back from meeting with some intellignet, informed women on how we can best help overthrowing the government. Looks like the markets have been a bit dull, eh?

3:21 and here's how it looks:


Dow 9,575.13 +39.72 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,896.67 +22.05 (+1.18%)
S&P 500 1,028.99 +6.18 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214% -0.027


Wonder how things will look at the end...

Julei

[Maeve]

30. Something like this...

Dow 9,576.04 +40.63 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,901.73 +27.11 (+1.45%)
S&P 500 1,029.04 +6.22 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214% -0.027