Guardian Unltd: Blair's popularity ratings nosedive

[Jack Rabbit]

From the Guardian Unlimited (UK)
Dated Thursday September 25

Blair's popularity ratings nosedive in wake of Hutton inquiry revelations
By Alan Travis and Patrick Wintour

Tony Blair's political reputation has been seriously damaged by the Hutton inquiry, with his personal ratings slumping over the summer from -17 points in July to -29 points now.
This month's Guardian/ICM poll shows that Mr Blair is now widely seen by the electorate as an out of touch, untrustworthy prime minister who spends too much time abroad and is too concerned with spin.
But it also shows that a clear majority of the country, and not just Labour voters, still regard Mr Blair as a competent prime minister who stands by his principles. He has not yet reached the depths of unpopularity that drove Margaret Thatcher and John Major out of office.
The ICM survey shows 61% of voters are now unhappy with the job he is doing as prime minister and only 32% are satisfied, giving him a net personal rating of -29 points.

Read more.

[mddemo]

1. blair

The problem is, who will replace him, the labour party without blair is unelectable. If he goes the only winners will be the tories. Gordon Brown is seen as being too scottish by the english electorate, and their is no one else in the labour party with the charisma and appeal needed to lead the parlimantarian party.

[jeter]

2. No the Liberal-Democrats numbers are rising

The Tories are stuck at 33% or so. They've been there for ever. Labour is only slightly above. The Liberals are now in the high 20s. I smell a huge upset brewing in Britain.

[mddemo]

4. lib dems

nope aint going to happen, if paddy ashdown couldnt get the libs elected then charles kennedy isnt, once again middle england would have a problem with the scottish question. This always influences how middle england votes in general elections. my bet is that the lib dems will win in the SW, tories in the south, and labour under blair will win scotland, wales, northern england and the midlands, ensuring his majority again. You have to remember that in Britian the people elect the government at a local level, and labour is very strong in its heartlands and always gets the vote out.

[LSdemocrat]

6. Actually the Lib Dems are only two behind the Tories

According to the poll the current standings are:

Labour 35%
Conservatives 30%
Lib Dems 28%

And with the current standing in Parliament (much stronger now then in their previous poll highs of the 1980's), they actually have a decent shot of gaining a large number of seats in the next election. I don't think that they can finish first, but by no means do Labour losses mean Tory gains anymore.

[fabius]

7. Lib Dems 28 %!!!!

:bounce:

Rah! That's pretty good!

Let's hope the so-called "liberal Democrats" of which I am a longstanding member can make some inroads in this country.

Pls. note btw, it must be Ok to be a "liberal" now because OReally is especially bashing "progressives" now. Got tired of the L-word I guess.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Two-dimensional swings

There's an interesting site at http://electiondata.telegraph.co.uk/swing_c315_l272.htm (you may have to register, free, with the Daily Telegraph). It gives (based on changes from the pre-2001 election votes - I think the rough effect of the 2001 election was a 2% gain by Lib Dems, and Tories unchanged) the effects of gains by the 2 (main) opposition parties. If you look at a square close to that last opinion poll, you get:
Party % vote seats
Labour 34.3 351
Tories 31.5 196
Lib Dem 27.2 80

with others take into account (that scenario gives the Scottish National Party 2 extra seats, and the Welsh nationalists 1 extra), it ends up with a Labour overall majority of 43.

In fact, Labour seems to do well out of most situations. For instance, even if the Tories get 37.5% of the vote, Labour 36.3%, and Lib Dems 19.2%, Labour still has over half of the seats in Parliament!

What I think this means is that there has to be a fundamental change in voting patterns to get Labour out (just as there was a fundamental change in 1997 to get rid of the Tories), not just the swing voters moving a bit.

[AP]

13. Charles Kennedy's strap line is "we're above politics -- there's no right

and no left"

I don't know how far they're going to get with that approach. If you can't set yourself apart from the other party....well, I just don't see it lasting very long even if the were able to win a general election.

[T_i_B]

14. They won Brent East

However did they do that AP? :evilgrin:

[RogueTrooper]

10. Tony Blair is Scottish

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Theoretically, yes

But in practice, he's English. From his own biography:
"Tony Blair was born in Edinburgh, but spent most of his childhood in Durham. At the age of 14 he returned to Edinburgh to finish his education at Fettes College. He studied law at Oxford"

And he represents an English constituency, and he has an English accent. Gordon Brown is Scottish any way you look at it; as is Robin Cook.

[young_at_heart]

3. Blair sided with Bush..........not a proper choice!

Much of Britain sees Blair as a lackey for Bush.......rightfully so.

[mddemo]

5. blair

dosent matter what the polls say, people tend to vote on local matters and for their local politician, hence people like the tommy sheridans, tam dalyells, george galloways, mohammad sarwar, norman tebbits get elected. The local constituants tend to stand by their local MP. We also have to remember that this is the Guardian. The majority of voters in the UK wouldnt use the guardian to wrap their fish, the working class is very labour and they read the SUN, Mirror, Daily Record etc.

[T_i_B]

8. If the poll is accurate it's accurate

no use rubbishing the source if it is reputableand the story is true. Personally I would not wipe my arse on the Sun, Mirror, Mail etc.

[Spentastic]

9. Where to start

"dosent matter what the polls say"

Yes it does. If carried out using proper methodology they are a useful barometer of the political climate. The fact is that Labour are becoming less popular, the Tories are dead in the water and the Lib Dems are currently gaining support. Of course, this may not transfer to general election success but the trends are undeniable.

"people tend to vote on local matters"

Tend to? Couldn't get more vague. What did the people of Brent East vote about? Arguably the Iraq conflict was the single biggest factor. Furthermore the Euro will be central in the next election. Of course local politics are important but I'd not discount the national picture.

"The majority of voters in the UK wouldnt use the guardian to wrap their fish"

Huh? You mean the majority of voters (those that voted Labour) would discount the views of the only left leaning broadsheet? It could certainly be argued that the reason that Labour have been successful is that they have reduced their reliance on the "working classes" hence the champagne socialists tag.

"the working class is very labour" If that were actually true the Tories would never have enjoyed electoral success. The working class have been gentrified, they believe they are middle class. The Sun especially cultivates this view so the "working class" end up voting for Tory facists thinking they are helping themselves.

The Daily Record? A Scot perchance?