Aides Feel Davis May Pull It Off

[Judi Lynn]

September 25, 2003 E-mail story Print


Aides Feel Davis May Pull It Off
Strategists think the key to beating the recall is to continue town hall meetings and stress the idea that alternatives to the governor are risky.


By Gregg Jones, Times Staff Writer


SACRAMENTO — As the candidates who would like to replace him attacked one another during their televised debate Wednesday night, aides to Gov. Gray Davis said they increasingly feel that they are within striking distance of saving the unpopular governor's job.

Six weeks ago, Davis' chances of survival looked so bleak that donors were reluctant to contribute money and prominent Democrats were reluctant to stand on the same stage with him.

Now, with several nonpartisan polls showing the race tightening, his strategists believe that they can win if they change the minds of about 3% of the electorate — mostly independents and some Democrats who now lean toward recalling the governor.

To accomplish that, Davis' aides say, they do not plan any major surprises over the 12 days before the Oct. 7 election. Rather, their plan calls for Davis to continue meeting angry voters face to face in town hall meetings around the state. At the same time, he will be waging a television advertising campaign designed to sow doubts about the recall in the minds of voters. (snip/...)

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-davis25sep25,1,1113191.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[IndianaGreen]

1. As long as Davis doesn't delude himself into thinking that people...

love him more than the other candidates. People are going to decide if the recall is worth the risk of replacing Davis with one of the other candidates.

[salin]

10. I doubt that Davis has ever believed

that the voters love him. Even in the first election (he initially had a real race in the primary - by two self-financed dems) it was all about strategy in order to win. I don't think he or his folks viewed the win in the general as adoration as much as a pushing out of a) 16 years of republican governors; b) a repudiation of the tactics of the republicans who had grown more and more bold in using subtle racism via propositions they pushed/supported; and c) that his opponent was viewed even further to the right than the Wilson. Indeed those themes came through the election. To a lessor degree some of that was still present in the re-election - hence their push in the primaries to try to get the moderate, popular former Mayor of LA out of the race. He would have been harder to win on that front.

Now it appears (via the cspan snippets I have caught) that they are pushing equally the danger of destability in an economically turbulent time (and that he is working to improve things) - with tapping into anti GOP anger of strategies of overturning elections (recount, recall, redistrict) and the will of the people.

[AP]

2. Although I've been generally impressed with Bustamante, last night made me

nervous. I think Camejo helps Bustamante even when he's attacking him. Although it's hard to place Arianna, I believe most people can easily see the spectrum of opinion ranging from left to right, Camejo, Bustamante, (Arianna?) Arnold, and McClintok, and when they think Camejo says something good, they're willing to presume that Bustamante would be inclined toward the same opinion, and I think Camejo did the best.

However, unlike previous debates, I didn't think the liberal wing hit a home run. (There was a lot at stake for the media, and I think they tried really hard to help "Governor Arnold", as the moderator called him -- they let him go on and on stealing time, but Camejo did make Arnold look bad when he implied that he wasn't being respectful, and Arianna called it out as sexist.)

In any event, it was easier to spin as an Arnold success than you would have hoped.

Hopefully, the upshot is that it makes people nervous about voting yes on the recall.

[cally]

4. The SF Chronicle did not spin it for Arnold

The news summary was that Davis won because the others look so bad. :bounce: I think Arnolds disrespect and Arianna calling him on it will hurt Arnie much. It just reminds folks about the other stories of his sexism. I hope.

[slackmaster]

8. Here's how I spin it

The debate pissed me off because it was poorly designed and poorly moderated. I didn't learn anything new. The opinions I had of the candidates did not change much but got a little more solid.

I give Camejo and McClintock a tie for honesty and clarity of their visions. Both are unelectable. They can only act as spoilers for the front-runners. But McClintock may have deliberately fallen on his own sword by mentioning his "pro-life" stance. If Schwarzenegger wins it will be because McClintock has done such a thorough job of identifying himself as a right-wing social conservative.

Arianna comes in second for honesty and clarity. She has some good ideas but numerically can act only as a spoiler to take votes away from Bustamante.

Bustamante and McClintock are the only two of the group who are demonstrably qualified to handle the nuts and bolts of the job of governor. Arianna lacks the hands-on experience but is bright enough to figure out how to handle it.

In terms of overall vision I have to admit my heart is with Camejo. Corporate welfare and class disparities are at the heart of much of the state's problems.

Schwarzenegger and Bustamante are both clowns deep down to the bone.

Davis is going down and we are going to get a clown in place of him. A left-wing clown or a right-wing clown, just like every governor of California I can ever remember: Jerry Brown, Ronald Reagan, etc. etc. etc.

[slackmaster]

6. Cruz made an ass of himself last night

Although his sarcastic interjections were justifiable retaliation for Arnold Schwarzenegger's verbal bullying and interruptions, Cruz could have acted a little more mature.

[rocktivity]

3. The UNPOPULAR governor???

He made be unpopular with the the one million people that Issa managed to sign up. He may be unpopular with with 1000 or so likely voters that have been polled. But he was ELECTED BY A MAJORITY of the people (which is more than some of us can say). He doesn't officially become unpopular until AFTER he loses the recall!


rocknation

[slackmaster]

7. Have you seen Davis' recent poll ratings?

He's been scoring in the low 20s in terms of peoples' satisfaction with his job performance.

We Californians are a fickle bunch. Fair-weather friends all the way.

[GreenGreenLimaBean]

5. Arianna drove a stake into Arnold last night.

If Davis or Cruz end up winning, they should appoint Arianna to
a prominent position for all the help she gave them last night.

[realFedUp]

9. Unfair to Davis not to be in debates

I think. He gets a separate speaking time but
I doubt as many voters are tuning in.

The No Recall people needed to reassurt that
the deficit is not $38 million anymore,
give the facts about the Republicans in the
Legislature (yes, Virginia, there is a Legislature),
the facts about worker's comp and insurance
companies etc.

Give us facts over fiction.

[Democat]

11. The worst part of this article "no surprises" planned

Davis had been hinting that he had some surprise planned for late in the campaign. I hope he can pull this off without a big surprise about Arnold.