AP: Dean leads in New Hampshire as Clark grabs third place

[Atlant]

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2003/09/26/national1255EDT0605.DTL

Dean leads in New Hampshire
as Clark grabs third place

SAM HANANEL, Associated Press Writer
Friday, September 26, 2003

Howard Dean led rival John Kerry by 10 points in the latest New
Hampshire poll that showed newcomer Wesley Clark vaulting into third
place just one week after entering the Democratic presidential race.

Dean, who held a hefty 21-point lead over Kerry a month ago in a
similar survey, led the Massachusetts senator 30 percent to 20
percent in the Zogby International poll conducted Sept. 24-25 and
released Friday.

The poll of likely Democratic primary voters found 10 percent favored
Clark, up from 2 percent in August, when the retired army general
said he was weighing a presidential bid. The state is tentatively
scheduled to hold its primary Jan. 27.

Pollster John Zogby said there is evidence that Clark has cut into
the former Vermont governor's independent support, which he cited as
a major reason for Dean's drop from 38 percent in August to 30
percent in the latest poll.

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[cprise]

1. Wooo-hooo!

The Doctor Is IN!

(Clark is such a nice boy, though :7 )

[cspiguy]

2. Is that a fast fade for Clark or what?

geez - I thought the media, the DNC, and Bills Member (tm) were fully supporting his candidacy!? :wtf:

[DoveTurnedHawk]

4. Weak Spin

Vaulting to third in NH of all places, where Clark has made all of one trip and where personal campaigning is so important, is nothing short of incredible. He's ahead of other New Englanders, and he hasn't even really started.

I think that he will continue to climb in NH, although Dean and Kerry will both be hard to catch. Still, a third place finish will be spun as a victory by the press, given his Southern roots and his late start. Second place would be incredible, and would be touted by the media for a week after the primary.

DTH

[noonwitch]

10. I agree, this is good news for Clark

I'm undecided between Dean and Clark, and think that the two together would be a good ticket, either way. Their strengths and weaknesses balance each other out well (Dean has executive and domestic policy experience, Clark has military and foreign policy experience). I don't think that any democrat should get vicious to another in the primaries-that's how Bush does things(the way he treated McCain is beyond belief, for a fellow repub). The candidates have got to keep the focus on Bush's failures, not each other's, and on what their plan is to fix things.

[SlutBunwalla]

5. Uh...this is not a fade...

This was a poll of likely voters, not a poll of DNC operatives. Clark's numbers are up FIVE-FOLD from the last poll, and considering that nobody was expecting him to perform well in New Hampshire or Iowa, for him to poll third at this point is very impressive.

[cspiguy]

8. after all the hype

you'd expect him to be leading Deano by today...

[DoveTurnedHawk]

11. Not in NH

No one with the slightest clue about Presidential primary politics thought that.

DTH

[PAMod]

12. I agree with you cspiguy

I think General Clark has had his bump nationally. He's going to have to actually campaign if he wants to win primary elections.

The reason he isn't polling stronger in NH & IA is those folks have had a lot of contact with Dean & Kerry & Gep. They KNOW who the candidates are and what they bring to the fray.

The places that haven't yet been courted by the other candidates are showing better numbers than 10% for General Clark.

[VolcanoJen]

9. Wha....?

If Clark ends up finishing third in New Hampshire, or even Iowa, most political pundits would consider that quite a victory for him, actually...

[Kahuna]

17. Fast "fade?" 8% in one week is great! it took Dean..

more than six months to get that high. And Dean's been practically living there.

[bluestateguy]

3. Clark needs a strong 2nd in New Hampshire

Then Kerry will be finished, and I can see the larger share of his supporters joining Clark. Clark will then have to win in SC.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

6. A 2nd Place Finish Would Be Unbelievable

I agree with your analysis. But 3rd place won't hurt him any, the press expect him to come in 4th or lower, right now.

SC will be big. I'll be interested to see how much support Clark will be able to peel from Edwards.

DTH

[Kahuna]

18. I heard on Cspan yesterday that Clark is 2nd in SC...

and saw a report on another website that Clark is FIRST in Wisconsin. Clark has plenty of time to get his numbers up at the rate he's going. Doesn't it just kill you Clark-hatas?

[Pepperbelly]

25. Clark grabs 3 here ...

he is very successful. If he grabs a 3 in Iowa as well, he is set for the big one in early March. He is already surging in SC against Edwards.

[dolstein]

7. Buried lead: Dean's margin has been cut in half

His lead has shrunk from 21 points to 10 points in just one month.

[flpoljunkie]

13. Good point. Dean's numbers are definitely headed in the wrong direction!

:kick:

[ozone_man]

14. A 10 point lead with this many candidates is huge.

Once a few candidates drop out, he will be up again.

[Kahuna]

19. He's down nationallly and in NH. How can you

possibly spin that as good? I'm sure that these trends are troubling to Dean.

[goobergunch]

20. I think Dean's number is only down three points (n/t)

polltrakker

[paulk]

21. your assuming Dean will pick up their votes?

What leads you to assume that?

Many people thought that Clark's entrance would hurt Kerry - but, according to this poll that doesn't seem to be the case. It seems to be hurting Dean.

[ozone_man]

26. Hmmm ...., Maybe the DLC planned it that way.

In this poll, it is clear that Clark took more from Dean than any other. How many Dean gets back when the others drop out is anyone's guess. But assuming that the 30-20-10 ratio holds, Dean winds up with 50% in a Dean/Kerry/Clark poll, and that's enough for me.

It's early still. My own take ... is that the next year will bring the economy back into direct focus and the war will take a back seat. We are slowly entering a long, soft depression era, and it will probably become apparent to us before the election that things are not just going to fix themselves, that we won't be growing out of it. Another Great Depression, but different, because we have Alan Greenspan to make a soft landing. People will yearn for a leader with experience in government and social programs, health care, etc. We need to get people back to work, get them health care. These will be priorities. We won't need a military leader (like Clark). We will need a civic leader, maybe even a doctor.

[expatriot]

15. good news for all three: Dean, Clark and Kerry....

There is a silver lining in it for all three of them.

For Kerry, because there was some speculation that Clark would dig into Kerry's base more than Dean's.
For Dean, because although Clark's buzz seems to have cut into his base, he is STILL ten points ahead of Kerry.
And for Clark, because this is a good showing for NH where all the other candidates have saturated for almost a year now.

[expatriot]

16. just to make it clearer to me...

Dean 30
Kerry 20
Clark 10
Gephardt 6
Lieberman 5
Edwards 2
Graham 1
Kucinich 1
Braun 1
Sharpton 1
Undecided 22

[haymaker]

22. If all the panty-waste Dems keep attacking Dean

they might just make it close.

Lieberman and Kerry, The Inside Boys, should ask themselves how bad they want Bush to win. I already know, real bad.

[paulk]

23. how to win friends and influence people

Glad to know we're all just under ONE BIG TENT.

:puke:

[maxanne]

24. It's pantywaist,

haymaker.

PANTYWAIST
Pronunciation: 'pantee`weyst

Definition: a timid man or boy considered childish or unassertive

Synonyms: milksop, Milquetoast, pansy, sissy

See Also: coward