STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY SEPT 29....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday September 29, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 483
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 315
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 290 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 348 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 190
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 674
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 26, 2003

Dow... 9,313.08 -30.88 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq... 1,792.07 -25.17 (-1.39%)
S&P 500.... 996.85 -6.42 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.02% -0.08 (-1.93%)
Gold future... 381.80 -4.10 (-1.06%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. Hi folks.

I won't be around much today. Keep a light on for me. See you tomorrow.

[JNelson6563]

3. Mornin' Ozy!

Thanks for kicking things off! Hope you have a good day! :hi:

A little wrap-up:

Weekly Recap of the Equity Markets

A lot of technical damage was done this week. The Dow broke back below 9,504.64 as described by the 50% principle. The intermediate term indicators that I use also turned negative. The short-term structure of the trading cycle has turned negative and we now have a weekly swing high in place. These are all indications that the recent rally has concluded and that the decline into the seasonal low could now be under way.

<snip>

My current analysis of the stock market from a long-term perspective remains bearish. At this time I find the argument of October 2002 marking the 4-year cycle bottom to be still somewhat iffy. I find the argument that we have entered into a new bull market absurd and it is history that will help us understand this.

<snip>


My minimum price objective for this Bear market based on my technical studies take the S&P 500 down to approximately 315 and the DJIA down to about 3,000. These targets are also confirmed if I apply a fundamental measure, based on historical P.E. ratios. Let me explain. At bear market bottoms P.E. ratios a found to be roughly equal to the dividend yields. For example, in 1932 the yield on the S&P 500 was 10.50 with a P.E. just under 10. In 1942 the yield was 8.71 with a P.E. of 7.3. In 1974 the yield was 5.9 and the P.E. was 7.24. In 1982 the yield was 6.2 and the P.E. was 6.9. Today the yield on the S&P is 1.7 and the P.E. is 30. Based on today’s earnings a P.E. or 10 would take the S&P 500 down to 348. In order for the S&P 500 to produce a yield of 6% it would have to sell at 292 while a yield 8% would mean that the S&P 500 would sell at 219. I know most people are probably saying, “no way that will happen” and that is exactly what I heard back in 2001 when I was calling for a decline into the mid 7,000 range in late 2002. I can assure you this bear market is NOT over and this forecast is highly probable.

(Much research in between what I pasted here that explain the last paragraph--interesting read.)

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Well, we can ignore this because futures are up! It's a sunny day on the Street! Hooray!!! ;-)

Happy Monday Marketeers!

Julie

[spinkbottle]

11. Good Morning

Ozy, Julie, Maeve, Coventina, and the rest of the Stock Market Watch thread. I registered this weekend mostly so I could post my thanks to you for a job well done. This is the most interesting daily thread!

I don't know enough about this stuff to contribute anything useful, but you guys rock! I appreciate all the hard work you put in it, and marvel that you keep your sanity and good humour day after day. You are an example to me!

:toast:

[Maeve]

13. Welcome and thank you

I might point out that a lot of media folk don't know enough to contribute anything useful, either...but when has that stopped them??

Feel free to join the fray anytime! :hi:

[JNelson6563]

16. Nobody knows anything

anymore. Seems the wisest strategy is to go counter-intuitive to "conventional wisdom" (which in itself is often debatable!).

Thanks for the kind words, I can tell you that Maeve and I are both Irish, a race renowned for keeping their humor in the face of dark times, haha I don't know how Ozy does it......probably a pretty young wife and a no-doubt adorable man-child....;-)


:hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

2. Economic Calendar for today

Coming up in a few minutes, we have the August Personal Income and Personal Spending reports (spending expected to rise more than income). 10:00 brings us the latest Consumer Confidence (expected to drop slightly from last month's 81.3) Those three should give us a glimpse at how the economy is doing on the "home" front.

Futures are up and climbing.

[Maeve]

4. Spending and Income up

Consumer spending jumps
August spending matches expectations; personal income slightly lower than expected.
September 29, 2003: 8:33 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Personal income and spending rose in August, the government said Monday, mostly meeting Wall Street expectations.

The Commerce Department said personal income rose 0.2 percent after a revised 0.3 percent gain in July. Economists, on average, expected it to rise 0.3 percent, according to Briefing.com.

Spending by consumers, which accounts for about 70 percent of the nation's economic activity, rose 0.8 percent after rising a revised 0.9 percent in July. Economists, on average, expected spending to rise 0.8 percent, according to Briefing.com.

[JNelson6563]

5. Well if the news isn't horrible

could it be time for a rally? It does seem that way lately doesn't it? Less-than-terrible news is considered "good" these days.

Julie

[Maeve]

6. Somewhat ironic note

The story about spending being up is right next to "Are you in too deep?" personal debt article on the CNN/Money home page....

I've got to take some time away from the computer this week, so my posting will be erratic (of course, it always was! :D )

[Maeve]

10. Calendar correction--Consumer confidence not til tomorrow

Sorry!

[Maeve]

7. And now for the cheerful start of the trading day

Dow 9,337.43 +24.35 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,803.54 +11.47 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 999.22 +2.37 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.048% +0.025

[lfairban]

8. Up at the open, . . .

. . . no suprise, based on the futures.

[JNelson6563]

9. losing a little steam....

10:00:

Dow 9,328.60 +15.52 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,805.51 +13.44 (+0.75%)
S&P 500 999.67 +2.82 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.067% +0.044


Julie

[revcarol]

12. Hard-hitting cartoon!!

If I had any extra money, I would give it to Kucinich to boost his efforts to repeal the worst of the Patriot Act.

And, yeah, it's such good news that we're spending more and making less.<sarcasm>

Today looks brutal for small investors.

[Maeve]

14. Scratchy looking chart so far (10:38)

Like the market isn't sure which way it wants to go...

Dow 9,329.50 +16.42 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,800.12 +8.05 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 999.06 +2.21 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.066% +0.043

[Maeve]

15. 10:56 and there's blood in the water

Dow 9,309.85 -3.23 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,794.06 +1.99 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 997.43 +0.58 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.052% +0.029

[JNelson6563]

17. I think it is Herr Rove's

We'll see what ol' Chuck Schumer has to say at 3:00 pm, seems investors do not feel very postive about possible incomes on this....

11:10

Dow 9,294.42 -18.66 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,786.75 -5.32 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 995.34 -1.52 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.041% +0.018


Julie

[UpInArms]

18. daily dollar watch

and the message is: out of the green and into the red

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 93.77 Change -0.10 (-0.11%)

[Maeve]

20. BTW, thank you for watching this

I've added ino.com to my financial news favorites--some of the commentary looks particularly interesting.

[UpInArms]

23. you're welcome -

here's another interesting link - it shows how much money the Fed prints each day (securities to sell or RPs)

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

and has some generally interesting commentaries also

[Coventina]

19. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

Today's reading is quite cheery. It is INSIGHT changing to BENEFIT. Here is the changing line from Insight, "You may expect a fortunate and beneficial response from your environment." The hexagram of BENEFIT continues this same theme, "Many things will become possible, even very difficult undertakings."

I'm going to predict an up day for the markets. Possibly WAYYYY up.

On edit: ok, maybe the markets won't be up. Maybe the positive vibes Ching is picking up on have to do with reforms in the system. After all, accomplishing reform would certainly qualify as a "difficult undertaking".

[revcarol]

21. On that note, another

member of the compensation committee just quit.

Ya know, that compensation committee that had NO idea that Grasso was raking in so much...

[Maeve]

22. Remember when they at least made the denial plausible?

Ah, the good old days! :eyes:

[mrsteve]

34. Hey Conventina- good to see you cheerful

Was a little worried Friday - you seemed pretty down. Nice to see you back with a happier outlook and a cheerful reading.

[Coventina]

36. Thanks!

:hi:

Yes, I was pretty down on Friday. I've had a really tough year and one of the side-effects has been that I feel mighty discouraged from time to time.

Thanks for your concern. I love you guys!

:loveya:

[JNelson6563]

24. No--Wait a minute! False alarm! Everything is

going to be ok after-all! I'm so glad that crisis has passed!

11:30

Dow 9,326.28 +13.20 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,797.97 +5.90 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 999.69 +2.84 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.025% +0.002


*whew* Close one! ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

25. but if you look at the dollar

some major support slid out from under it about 30 minutes ago (that's because it has a 30 minute delay in reporting)

Last trade 93.18 Change -0.69 (-0.74%)

[JNelson6563]

26. will this result in an exodus

in Treasuries? 1:09 check out the 10yr:

Dow 9,378.84 +65.76 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,814.15 +22.08 (+1.23%)
S&P 500 1,005.01 +8.15 (+0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.056% +0.033

I join Maeve in thanking you for the $ info. Should be interesting to watch it all play out. What's causing this BTW?

Julie

[UpInArms]

35. dollar up-date (or maybe down-date is more appropriate)

Last trade 92.98 Change -0.89 (-0.95%)

it was down at this level back in May and June of this year, so this is not a "first" in this particular season.

I don't know the exact causes of this - but there are a lot of currency issues right now.

Japan is in the process of shuffling its cabinet around and may or may not continue to intervene on the dollar - it may be starting to tie its currency more closely to the euro - only time will tell. I think that if Japan sees that the US consumer is not capable of supporting its export needs, it will eventually abandon the US in pursuit of brighter pastures.

China continues to sit on the fence regarding the yuan (or the rembini sp?) so there's that situation also.

The G-7 meetings and the Snowjob crap has been all about "letting the markets decide" on the value of various currencies.

This WH's policy on the dollar has been really weird, to say the least, but they do seem to be more in favor of letting the printing presses do their work for them - tax cut panacea crap - no fiscal control -

Also, if the dollar becomes weaker, it hides the inflationary numbers pretty easily for them - just holding a dollar that becomes less valuable by the hour is a hidden inflation and tax on the consumer.

Those are all my best summations and I am no expert by anyone's standard.

So I can always be wrong and always need correction if my opinion doesn't match fact.

[Maeve]

27. 1:45 and back to cheerful, cheerful!

Dow 9,364.38 +51.30 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,814.56 +22.49 (+1.25%)
S&P 500 1,003.96 +7.11 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.052% +0.029

[JNelson6563]

28. 2:45 and things couldn't be better!

Dow 9,385.23 +72.15 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 1,820.16 +28.09 (+1.57%)
S&P 500 1,006.65 +9.80 (+0.98%)
10-Yr Bond 4.046% +0.023

Glad to see Treasuries not taking the beating I thought they might.

Julie

[radfringe]

29. Hey how the heck are you all doing?

Just heard talking heads blathering about the Dollar vs the Yes..

they sound worried... not sure if they are worried about the dollar or the fact they can't come up with any positive spin on it....

Looks like the "Wilson Affair" is hitting the fan, whitewash house is in full denial and the "...who me???..." innocent looks are on all their faces

We know one thing - Novak wrote about it, so his ass is in the fire - will he cough up the name of his sources? Outing a CIA agent is treason and despite his right-wing affiliations Novak is NOT above the law...

UN assistance doesn't look like it's coming, but winter is and with it higher fuel prices

I think this has marketeers sufficiently worried for a few days

[JNelson6563]

30. Hey Rad!!

Always good to see you! As you say, it's really hitting the fan now. Dollar shmollar, stocks are up and that's all that matters, right?? ;-)

Looks like they kept Schumer off the screen for his 3 pm conf. but I am sure the highlights will be on the news-shows this eve.

Looks like we are headed for a fabulous finish!

Just under 10 minutes to go:

Dow 9,363.33 +50.25 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,817.24 +25.17 (+1.40%)
S&P 500 1,004.37 +7.52 (+0.75%)
10-Yr Bond 4.077% +0.054


Wish we could see you more often Rad!

Julie

[mrsteve]

32. Looks like I missed a smiley happy day...

Stayed home with a cold today and just woke up. So the market's been climbing since 11:15, huh? When will the October Slump start, I wonder?

[Maeve]

31. Hey yerself, Rad!

Get that chimney fixed?

Shhhh...the market is not admiting to any downbeat knowledge, just cheerful stuff. Plan to go out of September on a high note and all that.

The Wilson Affair is giving me a taste for popcorn--just want to sit back and watch the fireworks!

[radfringe]

33. yep on the Chimney

all set for the winter...somewhat....

suppose to get a couple of cords of wood delivered on the weekend, we use that on weekends or if we are stuck indoors for a snowday... it helps

[JNelson6563]

37. Those closing numbers

Dow 9,380.24 +67.16 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,824.56 +32.49 (+1.81%)
S&P 500 1,006.58 +9.73 (+0.98%)
10-Yr Bond 4.077% +0.054


Wonder what all that info on the dollar will do tomorrow.

Sorry you are sick Steve. Hope you feel better!

Catch all you marketeers in the AM! :hi:

Julie