Poll Shows Recall, Schwarzenegger With Solid Support (LA Times)

[IndianaGreen]

Poll Shows Recall, Schwarzenegger With Solid Support
By Michael Finnegan, Times Staff Writer


A solid majority of likely voters favors removing Gov. Gray Davis from office in the recall election on Tuesday, and Arnold Schwarzenegger has surged ahead of his rivals in the race to succeed him, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

By 56 percent to 42 percent, likely voters support ousting the Democratic incumbent, a sign that Davis has lost ground in the closing phase of his battle for political survival. Support for Davis has slipped among key parts of his political base -- Democrats, women, moderates and liberals among them -- since the last Times Poll in early September found 50 percent for the recall and 47 percent against it.

Summing up the view of many voters was poll respondent Gladys Taub, a Democrat exasperated by the state's giant budget shortfalls.

"Gov. Davis has been doing a terrible job, and I just want to get rid of him," the 62-year-old paralegal, who plans to vote for Schwarzenegger, said in a follow-up interview. "Look at the state our state is in. If I ran my home that way, spending a whole lot more money than I was taking in, I'd wind up bankrupt. I'd wind up on the streets."

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-poll1oct01,1,4913112.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[Cha]

1. What a dumb shit...little does she know what feakin' arnie will

do..how do you get to be a "paralegal" and still be so dumb?

[nolabels]

6. Hey, you got to know they only a step away from being a lawyer

http://www.poddys.com/jokes/jokes_143.htm

LAWYER vs DOCTOR

It was one of the most gruesome cases ever to come before the court in the
small town, and if found guilty, the defendant would spend the rest of his
life behind bars.

The case had not been proceeding well for the defense. Though there was no
direct evidence, the circumstantial evidence was quote compelling.

The only chance the lawyer had was to cast some doubt in the minds of the
jurors. His only hope was to attack the testimony of the medical examiner.

Lawyer: "And prior to declaring the victim dead, did you check his pulse"?

Doctor: "No."

Lawyer: "Did you perform CPR?"

Doctor: "No."

Lawyer: "Did you do anything to determine if the victim was still alive
prior to declaring him dead?"

Doctor: "No."

Lawyer: "Then, Doctor, isn't it possible that prior to declaring the
victim dead that, in fact, he may have been alive and that it was your
negligence that caused the death?"

Doctor: "Aside from the fact that his brain was in a jar, I suppose he
could have been out practicing law."

[realFedUp]

2. I wonder if these people have as much ire for Bush.

It would be a markedly sad day if voters
voted in this man with a small majority...

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

3. Interesting stats

The Times Poll, supervised by polling Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,982 adults statewide Sept. 25-29. Among them were 1,496 registered voters, including 815 deemed likely to vote in the recall election. The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Didn't catch if they conducted the poll in english and spanish or any other languages and up to 6% thinking of changing back to NO plus Arianna withdrawing tonight and pledging to go up and down the state and urge a NO vote.

I think it's still a bit too close than this poll would indicate..in fact, when it boils down to it..this is a poll of 815 people in a state of 36 million where the actual turnout is completely up for grabs.

I'm not giving up yet.

[realFedUp]

4. No, giving up is what Republicans want....

Not only to intimidate Dems but to intimidate
McClintock voters.

[PurityOfEssence]

8. Exactly

I haven't seen a Democratic commercial all day, but early this afternoon on CNN, it was constant Arnold with the odd Crazy-Tom here and there.

Sez Arnold: "Give me your vote (and you'll never get it back...)"

What is Garry South doing? Why are they not hammering the Ken Lay anvil?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

7. Here's some info from the accompanying analysis

snip
Three percent of voters would support Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo. Arianna Huffington, an independent candidate receives less than 0.5% of the vote. Five percent said they would not vote on this part of the recall ballot.

We need Camejo to get off it and we need to reach those 5%

State registration figures show that Democrats make up 44% of the electorate, Republicans make up 35% and independents (and minor party registration) are 21% of the electorate. The Times’ likely voters are made up of: 47% Democrats, 12% independents and 41% Republicans


And this is the REAL story right here and REASON Bustamante should NOT have run and should have been a teamplayer..it appears Bustamante is delivering the state to Arnold as well

Race: Latinos likely to vote are divided as to whether to recall the governor or not (49%–48%). This may be some good news for the governor as this is a turnaround from the last Times poll where this group supported the recall (53%) to 41% against. Bustamante running to replace Gov. Davis drains Latino votes away from voting against the recall — more so than with all likely voters. A quarter of Latinos who support Bustamante as the next governor say they will vote for the recall.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-poll1oct01-488pa1an,1,4658939.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[IndianaGreen]

13. I think we should worry about how the votes are going to be counted

particularly, how can the voters properly cast votes on punch cards for 135 candidates whose names are not in alphabetically order.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

15. There's been that instruction

Apparently LA county has some touch screens too that is a concern.

There are optiscans and punch cards in OC.

The main concern I have which I suspect had something to do with Shelly's office getting the recall certified and I LIKEWISE have a concern with in the recall is that due to the fact that Shelly came to office and the recall was generated so soon, Shelly's office has a lot of staffers left from when Bill Jones, A Republican was in there.

On he day the recall was certified, staffers in Shelly's office were giving thumbs up signs to the people in the street below.

[wtmusic]

21. Has anyone else seen Arnie's commercial

where he morphs Davis and Bustamante?

Pathetic.

[Zhade]

31. 12 locations for early voting. Yikes!

NT!

[wtmusic]

20. The Times is conservative and

815 is a pathetic sample. Statewide or not I would dismiss this as RW propaganda.

[farmbo]

35. Puts the lie to Monday's CNN/ USAToday/Gallop poll...

...which had the recall passing by 65%.

With Arianna bailing out and throwing her support to Davis, you now have the recall question itself within the MOE of this poll.

[bemildred]

41. "137 likely latino voters"

No discussion that I saw about what "likely" means.
Nobody knows, time will tell.

[gristy]

5. I just don't understand it.

I just don't. Well, I do. This is a reflection of the dumbing-down of the electorate. I just can't see a thinking, educated person voting for a cretin such as this.

NSMA, keep on fighting!!

[dArKeR]

9. I don't think CAers are that stupid to give CA to the Bush Crime Family!

[Freddie Stubbs]

36. Actually, they would kind of be giving it to the Kennedy family

[gristy]

10. Isn't there going to be a debate between just Arnie and Davis?

Will it help?

[The Zanti Regent]

11. Arnold said No Debate with Davis

and the Whore Press keeps blowing Arnold 24/7!

[Piperay]

22. It wouldn't matter if there

was one because as long as the groper doesn't soil himself while debating the media will declare him the winner. A debate would only bring the groper up further in the polls. :puke: :puke: :puke:

[_NorCal_D_]

39. I doubt that.

A one-on-one debate with Davis would make him look like a fool.

[belab13]

12. How naive have voters become. Has Ahnuld ever had to balance a

check book let alone change a light bulb? I live in Ca and this just makes me sick to my stomach. The state's in a world of hurt already; If we send monkey boy up to Sacramento then this place is finished.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

18. A few things to consider

None of these organizations has a real handle on WHO is going to show or HOW many.

People are talking about it and the media is HYPING it but that does not equate to votes.

Their samplng was over 800 that they considered likely out of nealy 1500..that's greater than 50% they are anticipating. They have NO idea what the real turnout will be.

It is hard considering the outcome but the polls have swung so wildly as to indicate EXACTLY what this is. A mess. A confusing mess.

[dem_in_seattle]

24. And also one thing to add about Arnold'd posturing...

I remember reading years ago in his "Education of a Bodybuilder" and in bodybuilding magazines in 1980 (when Arnold competed at the Mr. Olympia contest in Sydney), that he made a big deal out of the fact that he totally would "psyche out" his competitors on the stage, especially Mike Mentzer. Arnold really bragged about that, about carrying himself with that extra self-confidence, knowing that it would throw his opponents off.

It really surprises me alot that this bit from Arnold's past history hasn't been emphasized more, and its relevance to this recall race.

People should really keep this in mind before allowing themselves to be freaked out by these polls!

Jim

[agincourt]

14. I'm still shocked and awed,

that no one remembers the Enron cartel-Bushco price fixing. I guess it's just sooooo 1981. Well, they can enjoy their airhead. I hope he goes out jogging around the governor's mansion in his old posing trunks.

[okieinpain]

16. WOW, I'm speechless

.

[expatriot]

17. ignorance is the GOP's best friend.

[Democat]

19. The California media is all pro-Arnold, all anti-Davis all the time

The recall would never have even happened if the right wing California media didn't unofficially endorse it.

You will almost never hear a single bad thing about Arnold or a good thing about Davis anywhere in the entire mainstream California media.

[Piperay]

23. If arnie the groper farts

the press covers it in a positive way. The wax museum is having a special arnie exhibit, course the media made big mention of it! :wtf: Davis & Bustamante never get any puff pieces :puffpiece: like that. :argh: :mad: :grr:


EDIT: clarity

[sandnsea]

25. The driver's license law

I'm not picking on Californians, I grew up there. But I think when Davis signed that law, he was sunk. Too much racism, too much terrorism fear, and too many Mexican-Americans who have lived in CA for generations and really aren't much friendlier to illegals than alot of white people. Plus, anything he does now will only be seen as Davis trying to save his butt and probably make people like him even less. If Arnie wins this thing, it's just going to be a sad, sad day for American democracy.

[Democat]

26. You're right - Arnold is playing the anti-Mexican racism card bigtime

The right wing fueled racism against "Mexicans" in California is embarrassing for a state that is supposed to be "liberal".

[dem_in_seattle]

27. But I can't believe that would succeed!

But I can't believe that would succeed! Also, I don't think these polls are guaging the potential Latino/Latina turn out *at all*.

[tlb]

28. Sorry but a lot of people are just kidding themselves.

Before the recall petition was certified I posted at least half a dozen times warning this election wouldn't be stolen, it would be thrown away. It seems this is coming to pass.

The core problem in this has always been the same one, the total disconnect of the democratic leadership in the California party. Every California governor for a century has had to face recall attempts. That this one could achieve such strong support was both a warning and an opportunity for the party. They unsurprisiingly failed spectacularly to heed the message.

In all the arguments back and forth, NOBODY ever puts forth a reason to retain Gray Davis that speaks to Davis himself. It's always attacks on Arnold, attacks on Bush, coups, millionaires, and all the rest. Davis is spoken of as little as possible. That indicates they understand Davis himself is inadequate to the task.

And yet the California party chose to make this the Alamo, die to the last man fighting for Gray Davis. Terry Maculiffe and the DNC followed suit with its edict no democrat shall offer him or herself as an alternative. Besides Feinstein there certainly were other viable alternatives who could have stepped forward, but if it means excommunication how many good candidates would dare try.

If the best option you can offer the voters is more of the same (Bustamante with his Indian casino special interest money), why NOT roll the dice on Arnold. Arnold was and is beatable, but you need something to offer the voter beyond hysterically yelling "COUP !". The party powers that be refused to do this and seem about to reap the consequences.

Don't blame the polls, the press, or the voters. Put the responsibility where it belongs.

[IndianaGreen]

29. Excellent post, tlb

I was not happy about the endless rants about Arnold's accent and his sexual behaviour decades ago, rather can concetrate on the critical issue of Arnold's plan to save California, and how he was going to implement it.

There has been quite a bit of denial about the massive popular rejection of Gray Davis by a significant number of California Democrats. A rejection so total that it seems it is spilling over the second question on the ballot, and is hurting Bustamante's efforts to keep the governorship in Democratic hands.

What does this mean for 2004? If the Democratic party concentrates in attacking Bush personally as the "Chimp" or the usurper, as many of us (myself included) are fond of doing, we will fail to resonate with the public. The Democratic party will have to give people a reason for voting Democratic. Not everyone sees Bush as the evil emperor. Despite the polls that show Bush's disapproval numbers to be around 50%, a majority of Americans still see him as a good man and a good leader. Our challenge is going to be to convince the public to take a chance on a candidate that was not there to comfort them and give them a sense of purpose during the dark days after 9/11 (this is the way they see it!).

[Imajika]

34. That is a great post IG

"There has been quite a bit of denial about the massive popular rejection of Gray Davis by a significant number of California Democrats."

Exactly. It really couldn't be more clear to anyone willing to take an honest look at what is happening. Further, in my view, Davis sealed his fate when he decided to support the bill allowing illegal aliens to obtain legal drivers licenses. He was probably finished before that, but flip flopping on that was so obviously for political purposes that it clearly hardened the anti-Davis atmosphere. Whether you agree or disagree with this issue, and there are good arguments on both sides in my opinion, this had been something Davis had clearly been against before - it just came off as pandering for votes and a total lack of principle when he suddenly decided he was now for it.

"If the Democratic party concentrates in attacking Bush personally as the 'Chimp' or the usurper, as many of us (myself included) are fond of doing, we will fail to resonate with the public."

Yes, if we take that tact, we will utterly fail to resonate with the MAJORITY of the American public. Those sorts of attacks on Bush only appeal to the core Democratic base. Most Americans think Bush is an honest guy and strong leader, even if they disagree with many of his policies. Americans don't buy into the BFEE stuff. They are not going to believe Bush is "evil" or a modern day Hitler. That kind of talk may excite some of the Democratic faithful now, but the vast majority of the American public will simply reject such blathering. The GOP tried to paint Clinton as evil and unGodly - it utterly failed.

I am continually suprised that so many members of a political forum like DU so utterly misread the American public. Most of us are advocates of our positions, but people should also understand what the majority of the voting US public thinks. We need to work for change, but we must be realistic and understand moving the public opinion of millions of Americans in our direction is a long, slow process. To date - the horrific manner in which the Democratic party has dealt with this recall in California and the ostrich like belief by much of the core in the party that Arnold couldn't be elected in a left leaning state, well it leaves me very worried about 04'. I am seeing the same blind foolishness right here on DU illustrated by all the "Bush is done", "Bush is toast", "Bush is finished" posts and threads. Bush is far, far from done. He will be extraordinarily difficult to beat in 04' - and calling him "chimp" and "usurper" will not help us at all in the general election.

Imajika

[Merlin]

37. Viewing it from afar and sketchily, this sounds about right.

Thanks for the analysis. I think Davis had severe popularity problems in his 1st admin. Should have been a clear warning.

[robbedvoter]

30. Dewey beats Truman, Lazio beats Hillary, Bush beats Gore

Screw the polls! Get out and vote!

[Triana]

32. Trying HARD to discourage Democrats from voting, are they?

It seems to me - and I've seen it happen time and time again - that all this media bullshit declaring Aaaahhhnuld the winner even BEFORE the damn election takes place is a tactic they use and have used in the past - to KEEP PEOPLE FROM THE POLLS. Why bother voting if Aaaahhhhnuld already won?

It's well known FACT that Democrats make up the majority of registered voters. That's why when voter turnout is high, it helps Democrats.

This media spin (being wagged out by the Bu$h White House most likely) is a ruse to get people NOT to vote in the recall election.

If they can keep many voters from the polls - Democrats lose. Get voter participation UP - it helps the Democrats - invariably.

RUSE!

As for the brain-dead woman, well, nothing can be done to cure chronic stupidity.

[leesa]

33. It's bogus. They are just trying to keep you from voting

DO NOT believe anything regarding polls from mainstream media. They are ALL owned by Republicans. They are either trying to make it look like he's popular in order to steal it with machine votes or they are using their old-fashioned method of trying to keep Dems from polls because it is pointless. Ignore it!

[ignatius]

38. If Californaians want a scapegoat, why don't they use

their energy to go after their congressman to get Ken Lay. He and his band of thieves are the real budget busters and you can bet your ass that Bushie,Cheney and Roves hands were all over the screw job done by Enron.

What kind of ignorant woman would vote for this gangbanging groper.Disgusting.

Continue sending those letters to the editors in LA, San Diego and Oakland. None of mine have printed yet, but I am not fiving up. You never know how the truth might impact a few people.

[CBHagman]

40. Get ready for the Minnesota experience.

YOU'LL BE SORRY!

If the talentless and boorish and mendacious Schwarzenegger "wins" the recall, comments will turn quickly from "He's a breath of fresh air" to "What the hell have we done to ourselves?!"

Schwarzenegger could also serve to cement the GOP's reputation for being the party of overt racism.

And I won't even get into what a foul sexist Schwarzenegger is. He's a bully and a creep, and empty to boot. His "business" experience involves bankruptcy, which appears to be just the kind of business experience the GOP favors in their candidates (cf. Bush).

[ignatius]

42. As someone said last week, if he is elected in

6 months watch for Total Recall II.