Selling time gets longer as housing market cools (San Diego)

[Zorro]

<snip>

"San Diego County's housing market, on fire a year ago, has cooled dramatically, according to figures from Sandicor Inc., the local real estate industry's multiple listing service.

In March, the average days on the market – the time a property spends from its listing date to when it enters escrow – was 54 days for resale single-family homes, compared to 31 last August and 40 in March 2004."

<snip>

If the San Diego real estate market is the housing bubble bellweather as the MSM makes it out to be, then this article may be a heads-up that the times could be a-changin'...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050508/news_1h08days.html

[geomon666]

1. So many houses are for sale here...

in the suburbs of Miami. Trying to get out while the gettin is good but those signs are starting to stay longer and longer.

[sasquatch]

2. Why are people fleeing Miami?

:shrug:

[NMDemDist2]

3. as interest rates continue to climb housing sales will cool n/t

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

8. There was just an article the other day in the OC Register that said

that mortgage insurers were getting iffy about writing policies here in So Cal as well...when people can't get a motgage insured, they aren't going to buy.

[teryang]

4. Almost half of housing transactions in my neighborhood

Are unqualified sales. That is they are quitclaims, either between family members or estate transfers. The prices have gotten high enough vis a vis low incomes in this area that no one wants to record a bona fide sale. The real estate valuation incident to the sale is a deal breaker because of the tax rate it triggers. This is a sign that the market here has topped out.

[LibDemAlways]

5. Throughout California people pull up in

front of Open Houses and get a big helping of sticker shock. Old junkers for $600K have been the reality for some time now. Maybe people are starting to wise up.

[NewHampshireDem]

6. I'm seeing it here, too, in NH

In my town, which is just west enough not to be considered seacoast, but close enough that it might as well be, housing prices have literally skyrocketed.

Houses like mine are selling for more than double what they sold for 3-4 years ago. Inventories for 1,400 sq ft 3-br houses are way down, and all the new construction is either senior-community townhouses or the 2,100+ sq ft 'McMansion.' The senior houses are selling for nearly $300K and the 'McMs' are going for $430k-$450K.

I should say, they are "offered" because they aren't selling or going. The subdivision up the road has something like 30 lots and about a dozen or so houses already built. Despite open houses up there every Sunday for at least 2 months, only one house has sold. Two years ago, new houses were pretty much sold before they were even built.

I'm half tempted to cash out, rent for a few months, then buy again when the bubble bursts since I have so much equity right now. :evilgrin:

[AliB]

7. I Live In San Diego

And I just bought a sailboat to live on. Wind power rocks.

The price hikes were fueled by low interest rates and easy credit. People will generally buy the most expensive house they can afford. When interest rates are lower they can pay more because their monthly mortgage payment is less. In addition, many people have refinanced their homes and now they owe huge amounts of money on them. Thanks to chimpy's massive debt we can look forward to rising interest rates. That means people won't be able to afford as expensive of a home. That means housing prices will drop. That means people will owe more then their house is worth. That means people will default and banks will foreclose. That means home prices will drop even further as a glut of homes are put on the market. That means the bubble has burst. That means we're screwed.

Hang on to your ass.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

9. The fires came a year or so too early

back in the Laguna fires SOME people were jumping for joy when their places burned..that was the last time the bubble burst

[kaygore]

10. Strong in Portland

My friend just sold her house in North Portland for over $40,000 more than the agent told her to list it ($270,000 rather than $229,000) and the smaller house next door sold for $265,000 rather than the $225,000 that agent said to list it. In other words, when they leave California, they have to go somewhere and housing prices are just now taking off in parts of Portland, OR.

By the way, my friend bought her house less than 3 years ago for %159,000. Bids for the asking price were submitted the first day and then there was a price war.

I lived in San Diego. A hovel sells for over $400,000. The prices are crazy there. However, over time, they will hold their value.

[Barkley]

11. Each extra sq-ft adds over $500 the price in S.G. Valley (Pasadena)

I had my students run some regression equations on data from houses on sale in the San Gabriel Valley.

The data is from the houses listed in the local supermarket free magazines, so its not a random sample. Therefore we can't make inferences about houses not in the sample.

But it give an indication of how far off these prices really are.

[ovidsen]

12. The end is near

Compounding the growing instability of the housing bubble is the increasing number of homeowners taking second mortages using the inflated value of their properties as collateral.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/07/AR2005050700198.html

But the old psychological barriers to tapping home equity have crumbled in the past 10 years, and now, especially for younger homeowners, home equity is viewed a bit like found money. A whole generation of homeowners is able to live in a way their parents never dreamed of back when homes appreciated a percent or two a year and cashing out equity meant robbing from your retirement.

The house of cards is looking very unstable. :crazy:

[Lochloosa]

13. What He Said...

[FDR33]

14. Watch out

People have overextended themselves with cheap mortgages and cheap credit. Now that rates are rising, reality will set in and the bubble will burst. I'm actually surprised at how long it's taking. The US economy is going to get crushed under the weight of both the trade deficit and the fiscal deficit. It could get really ugly, but hopefully it will be more of a long, soft, decline rather than a crash followed by mayhem.