"BREAUX TO RETIRE AT END OF TERM"

[Frodo]

http://www.politicsus.com/PoliticsUS%20Publius.htm

"Yes, this is a heck of a way to break a story, but Publius is reliably informed by a number of sources that incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator JOHN BREAUX will announce shortly after the Louisiana Governor's race is completed on November 15 that he will retire at the end of his current term. "

Why... after a couple days of "good" news do we have to read about this sort of thing? First, our best shot at GA dropps out... Now, LA will be a tossup at best?

As things stand right now, I predict a likely net loss of at least two seats in the Senate and little chance of taking it back. :-(


Edit - Oh, I found this at the opposing site, but I think politicsus and publius are ok.

[0007]

1. That's good

cuz he sure won't be missed in the senate.

[diplomats]

2. But he usually voted with his party

I don't want to lose another seat in the Senate!

[Frodo]

4. I sympathize

I've been joking all along that Miller's retirement gives us an opportunity to "pick up a seat". (Though I admit to being a pretty moderate Democrat who prefers the Breauxs & Millers to many at the far end of the party)

But it's still a "D" in the Senate when deciding who controls (and which judges get confirmed - don't pretend that two or three filibusters is stopping shrub, and we can't filibuster them all)

[CMT]

3. Too bad

I hope the Dems can get the LA. senate. As long as he is retiring maybe it might help if he resigned a few months early so the new Dem governor could appoint a replacement to give a head start in the election campaign.

[Frodo]

6. Breaux is unlikely to do that - Like Miller

Miller is declining to even back/endorse a Democratic candidate. He doesn't think we've treated him very well.

This race will hang largely on how well we do this November in LA. If we can hold the Gov mansion that will be two straight wins state-wide and will take some of the edge off of 2004 if we field a good candidate.

If we lose, however, and all the stories turn to the number of open southern "D" senate seats... we could lose a few.

[DEMActivist]

5. This is EXCELLENT news

Give a REAL Democrat a chance to win this seat. It means no more Zell Miller, no more Breaux, no more pretend Democrats.

The win by Sen. Landrieu proves a Democrat can win here.

[Frodo]

10. Too optomistic.

"The win by Sen. Landrieu proves a Democrat can win here."
The win by Sen. Landrieu proves a Democrat can barely win here when the other party is completely fractured.

Think it will happen again with a year to run up?

[markus]

15. Breaux is not a pretend Democrat

While I stand far to the left of John Breaux, he is at heart every bit a real Democrat.

"Its easier to be a fiscally reponsible Democrat than it is to be socially responsible Republican".
-- John Breaux.

I didn't write that for him, but I wish I had.

Yes, he is pro-life, but we're talking about Louisiana with not only a signficant conservative protestant population but a very large Catholic population in the South.

Yes, he may have said his vote was not for sale, but was for rent. But he was merely making a joke about being a consummate Capital Hill player.

While he was willing to give business a break more often than not when he believed it was in either Louisiana's or working people's intestest, he was not a complete corporate sell out.

He was a mastermind of fundraising, and certainly helped create the current environment of additional to the quasi-corporate teat. That is probably the only thing that bothers me. But then again, how many democrats of whom you would approve were elected because of the funds he reased for the DSCC?

CAVEAT: I was his 1986 campaign press secretary, and deputy press secretary/speech writer for several years after that.

[mndemocrat_29]

17. Landrieu won with Breaux's support

However, we can't just write this seat off. I think that Rep. Chris John will have an excellent shot at this seat.

[9119495]

7. Oh no!

Like him or dislike him (as I think it would be hard to hate him) we needed this guy. If the dems don't get some good candidates and even some moderates to conservatives in the south, we may end up with a filibuster proof senate. Thus Breaux, Edwards, Graham, Cleland, are all desparately needed.

Also if the Delay Texas redistricting plan goes through, the house will be even harder to take back. SomeBODY (of government) has to be able to put the breaks on the right.

[revcarol]

8. He overstayed his welcome by a long shot.

He was Bush's first choice for a "token Dem" in his cabinet.I have been fighting against this guy long-distance ever since he wanted to privatize Social Security and Medicare.

There's a bon mot for this: GOOD RIDDANCE TO BAD RUBBISH!!

Will work just as hard and even send money to get a real Dem into the job.

[markus]

20. Privatize Medicare?

Were you referring to Breaux-First?

I wonder what was in there that, say, Gov. Dean wouldn't accept if it pushed out perscription drug benefits to a large number of people?

Which says more about Dean's practical realism than it does anything else.

I don't think putting 2% of SS contributions into something modeled after the Thrift Saving Plan of federal workers (in which I participated while in Capital Hill, it was basically their 401k plan) constitutes a radical move to privatize Social Security.

It was about the most moderate proposal of its sort I saw floated.

In the end, Breaux was a moderate. He was well to the right of my own views, but a person I respected greatly.

That's about it for now, before I lose my temper.

[juajen]

46. Me, too

I disagreed with him on a lot of things, but I like him and think he has been a good senator for this state. We will have a hard time electing another dem. Breaux was always a shoo-in. BTW, Mary Landrieu has a cute brother running for, I believe, La. Senate. He looks so much like her. He could be a good up and coming dem. His name is Mitch.

[Catherine Vincent]

9. What does he plan to do? He doesn't look too old enough to retire.

[9119495]

11. VP?

Is he possitioning for a VP slot?

[Flying_Pig]

12. Leaving, no doubt to lap at the trough of special interest/lobby $$'s

Bet he'll be busy, having licked so much repuglian butt over his last term. Now he gets his payoff for being a good little DINO, and betraying not only his Party, but the people of this nation.

:puke:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. Not to mention the nice pension plan that he gets.

[jiacinto]

13. There are plenty of candidates

Congressman Chris John (D) is probably a good win and probably whomever doesn't make it to the gubernatorial runoff will run.

But this is bad news, very bad news.

[goobergunch]

14. Shit. This seat is now a TOSS-UP. If we're lucky.

With Breaux running, at least we had a safe seat. Now, we have yet another seat to defend. It doesn't look good for retaking the Senate.

I'll have a more complete post when I get home from school.

[GumboYaYa]

16. Don't write Louisiana off so fast.

I've been saying it for a long time and still believe that the demographics in Louisana are shifting. Landrieu did a great job of mobilizing Dem voters in 2002. It looks like the Dems have a goood chance of having the two top candidates in the govenors general election this weekend.

I think the Dems can hold onto the LA seat without Breaux if they run the right candidate.

[Frodo]

30. Yes, but "tossup" is still much worse than "solid 'D'"

Sure, we can win that seat. And perhaps even "improve" on Breaux. But it still makes it a lot harder to ever take back the Senate.

Do you have a link on the LA Gov race?

[Frodo]

37. Second reply after research.

I was surprised to hear (read) that there might not be a Rep. in the runnoff. After looking into the issue I believe you are mistaken.

The Shreveport Times just published a poll showing Jindal(R) with a commanding lead (but well below the 50% needed to end the race) and the presumed Democratic frontrunner (Blanco) possibly coming in third despite polling the closes because of a lack of a "street organization" to mobilize the minority vote turnout.

The poll also shows Jindal with the best favorable/unfavorable of any candidate in the race and likely the favorite to fin the general election.

Shame on you (wags finger) for getting my hopes up like that.

[jiacinto]

49. History may disagree with you

I can think of at least two times where the winner of the primary has lost the runoff.

In 1986 W Henson Moore (R) won the primary against John Breaux (D). Then John Breaux went on to win 53-47% in the gerneal election.

In 1996 Woody Jenkins (R), like Jindal, came out ahead in the first round. He then lost o Mary Landrieu (D) narrowly that November.

So while Jindal may win the battle, if current history is any indication, he may very well lose the war.

So I would not count the Democrats out quite yet.

[markus]

51. In Louisiana's open primary

A GOP candidate often tops out in the early polling. In the second round, the Dems consolidate around his candidate.

We knew we won the election in September in '86.

[davidinalameda]

18. Landrieu's brother is an up and comer

has there ever been a brother and sister combo in Congress?

[goobergunch]

39. Not that I know of

Almost definitely never in the Senate, and probably not in the House...although there are brother-brother (Diaz-Balart) and sister-sister (Sanchez) combos in the House.

[NewJerseyDem]

47. Don't forget the Levin brothers

They may not serve in the same chamer but they both serve in Congress and they are two of the best members of Congress. They are certainly much better than Diaz-Balarts and the Sanchezes.

[dolstein]

19. All the more reason to nominate someone like Wes Clark

How many open seats are we looking at in the South? North Carolina? Lousiana? Georgia? Florida?

Do people really think that having someone like Howard Dean as our party's standard bearer in 2004 will make it any easier to win those seats? Wes Clark strikes me as someone who could actually be competitive in those states.

[9119495]

22. Oh come on

Have you seen Howard Dean bear the standard? He will turn people out to vote! What proof do you have Clark will do the same? I like the guy but there is no evidence he will do any better---at least not now.

[dolstein]

23. I've seen plenty of Howard Dean

He appeals primarily to those people who hate George Bush. Except for a relative handful of fringe Greenies, those people are already safe Democratic votes in the general election.

In case you haven't noticed, there aren't enough Bush haters in states like Lousiana, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida to make a liberal candidate with no cultural or family ties to the South viable in these states.

No Democratic presidential candidate from outside the South has won a majority of the popular vote in ANY Southern state since the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act (Humphrey won a plurality of the vote in Texas in 1968, due in no small part to LBJ). This is not a coincidence. Indeed, the South has become so hostile to the national Democratic Party (though by no means as hostile as states like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, etc.) that the Democrats would probably have to nominate two Southernors to have much of a chance down there.

[w4rma]

29. Bah. Clark runs an amateur campaign.

Put him on the top of the ticket and we'll lose all these seats. We need someone who *knows* how to run a campaign, not someone unproven.

Put Clark in the VP slot and let him campaign in the south if you don't think that Dean will do well there. I think Dean (with his rural roots) will do as well as Gore did there and will create new Democrats from Republicans instead of the DLC strategy which creates Republicans who occasionally vote Democrat.

[9119495]

32. I hear ya

I know what you are saying but 2000 should have taught us that (1) new voters will be essential to our success and (2) its the electoral votes that count. We may see a landslide for Bush in the popular vote, but a narrow electoral victory. If our nominee whens all states Gore did, plus any one of FL, AZ, WV, KY, TN...we've got the job!

This is getting a bit off the subject, but does it matter who wins the South Carolina primary if there is no chance of getting the states electoral votes? I think Democrats there should definetly have a voice but should millions of dollars be spent in the primary to lose the state 59% to 41%? Does it matter if we get one vote in the general in Alabama?

By the way, I enjoy Clark and will be happy to support him as the nominee but I really hope its Dean because I believe he can win and pull in democrats with him.

[David__77]

26. You do not support Lieberman?

I seem to remember that you did. Do you support Clark? Just curious. I agree that, if the initial reception is really indicative, then Clark does have certain advantages vis-a-vis Dean. But, that alone will not determine my support. It's too soon to tell if this is decisive.

[dolstein]

36. Clark would do better in the South than Lieberman

I think Lieberman could be competitive in Florida, but even with his reputation as a moderate and a deeply religious person, I think he'd have trouble carrying any other Southern states. He's still a New England Democrat, after all.

Clark's from Arkansas and he's a former general. Given that background, I think he'd be able to compete far more effectively for Southern votes than many other candidates.

Edwards is from the South too, but I think Clark's four stars will count a whole lot more than Edwards' six years in the Senate and his made-for-TV looks.

[GregW]

21. One of the last of the DINOs will soon be extinct

I'm sure sure fat, bloated oil cartel will have a squishy job waiting for him.

[dolstein]

24. John Breaux was no DINO

All you have to do is take a look at the Democrats Lousiana sent to the U.S. Senate before Breaux to realize this. Breaux was one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, but he was still to the left of all but a small number of Northeastern Republicans.

I know there are many DU'ers who would like to get rid of all the moderate and centrist Democrats, which would leave us with a Southern congressional delegation consisting entirely of right-wing Republicans and a handful of African American Democrats from urban districts. Isn't it funny how much these DU'ers have in common with Karl Rove?

[mndemocrat_29]

25. I can't believe all of the people who just dismiss Breaux

1. First, he's not that conservative. True, he's not a 100 percent liberal. But a person with Barbara Boxer's voting record would never be elected in Louisiana.

2. He's not as conservative as everyone believes he is. He talks Republican, typically votes Democrat. That's how Southern Democrats operate, so they can keep conservative Democrats in their fold.

3. If we had a Democratic majority, Breaux would have less opportunity to vote conservative. So eliminating all moderate Democrats would just insure a Repuke Congress.

[jiacinto]

35. But this is DU

And unless every Democrat in office votes like Barabara Lee or Dennis Kucinich he or she is a DINO. And thus that Democrat deserves to lose.

[David__77]

27. I agree.

There are certain cases that I have a problem with, such a Zell Miller, because he has not only been "unprogressive," but has taken a leading tole in attacking the majority of Democrats. That's a bad thing. But someone like Breaux isn't too bad at all.

[w4rma]

31. I agree. Breaux was, in general, a good Senator.

Miller attacked Democrats. He was a bad Senator. Breaux did a very good job of working with Democrats and Republicans. He's a charismatic man whom I hope will stay a Democrat and act as a sort of mentor.

[mndemocrat_29]

33. I totally agree

Miller attacked Democrats and refused to help a Democrat in 2004. I'm sure that Breaux will help campaign in 2004 for whomever is selected as the Democratic nominee.

[jiacinto]

34. Yep

it sure is.

[goobergunch]

42. I concur.

Breaux was never my favorite Senator. But I'd take him over David Vitter any day of the week.

Incidentally, I don't see how Chris John is a big improvement...his ratings show him as more conservative than Breaux.

:-(

[jus_the_facts]

38. Well after tomorrow.....if Buddy Leach isn't in the runoff for Gov...

....I'd sure as HELL back him for Breaux's seat...and would encourage him to do so as he has the flavor of Huey P and Earl Long.....he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS...his platform has made me like him a LOT....I think he'd make me Proud to have him as my Senator....even more so than Governor....dammit...I sorta dread tomorrow...they've changed my polling place and am afraid problems will arise from it....dunno just a sneakin' suspision they're gonna try and screw me outta my vote....after all that's gone on...I'm prepaired to FIGHT if I have too....wish us luck on taking back our Governor's seat....it's gonna be a wild ride I'm sure of it! :crazy:

[Chomskyite]

40. HE voted against Bush's Yucca Mountain Plan

And Mary Landrieu voted FOR it.

Very important to remember.

[markus]

53. And was otherwise very pro-nucyular

(a pronuncian problem he shared with Bush).

I could never figure that out. In the late 80s, early 90s he was actually working to re-invigorate the nuclear power industry.

Good for him.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

41. Kerry Breaux

I'd say that's the 50 state sweep ticket.

[Frank46]

43. Billy Tauzin would be toughest elephant

My opinion is that if Billy Tauzin decides to jump from Congress to the House, he would be very tough to beat. He is an ex-Democrat, and is pretty popular down here. I am surprised he didn't take on Mary last year. Unfortunately, I think he will be ready if Breaux really does step down.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

44. replacing Breaux with another Dem is a lost cause anyway

I was just looking for the silver lining in this. Graham needs to stay in Florida, and Edwards in NC, although I'm afraid he already said he's not running again.

[mndemocrat_29]

55. Huh?

What about Rep. Chris John. This state could easily elect a Democrat in the governor's race in 2003 (Blanco will beat Jindal).

[Chomskyite]

45. But could he beat Richard Ieyoub?

Or Kathleen Blanco?

No way. He's too transparent a shill for big telecom and for the Bush gang. He'd be exposed, discredited and beaten.

[NewJerseyDem]

48. Tauzin doesn't want to run for senate

He is the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee which makes him one of the most powerful people in Washington. Being elected to the senate would make him weaker than he is now. However, republican term limits will force him to give up his chairmanship in 2006 so I guess he could possibly run against Landrieu in 2008 but he probably is more interested in becoming a high paid lobbyist.

[mndemocrat_29]

54. True

Tauzin has given no indications that he is running. Everyone keeps saying it will be Vitter vs. John. I think John could win this one, but now his House seat is in major jeopardy.

[amazona]

50. when i heard this rumor a few months back...

...I wrote a letter to Breaux asking if the rumor was true and, if so, would he please re-consider and stay in his Senate seat. I felt it was a bad sign that I never got an answer. :-(

If he leaves, it will be a serious loss.

[Starpass]

52. Novak broke this on Inside Politics about two weeks ago

I thought everyone knew. He said that oil lobbyists told him abut it. I wonder if they offered him a job.