Different polls make for different results, different spins

[jamesinca]

Different polls make for different results, different spins
Schwarzenegger's staff says electorate still favors recall, but Davis campaign says it's dead even

Phillip Matier, Andrew Ross Sunday, October 5, 2003

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Overnight Democratic tracking polls showing Arnold Schwarzenegger's alleged sexcapades taking a toll on his election effort have breathed a whole new life into the embattled campaign of Gov. Gray Davis.

Overnight statewide polls -- taken by both Davis' camp and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante's camp -- show that support for the recall in the last two days has dropped from a slam dunk 55 percent "yes" to a neck-and-neck race with only 50 percent or 49 percent of the voters now ready to vote for the recall.

Schwarzenegger's tracking polls tell a different story. The Schwarzenegger overnights -- taken as late as Friday night -- show the "yes" on recall vote still firm at 55 percent or 56 percent. The same polls also show Schwarzenegger with a 15- to 17-point lead over Bustamante, the Democratic "fallback" candidate in the race.

A fourth poll taken by a Democratic-friendly labor union also showed the race tightening up -- but not to the degree of the other two Democratic polls.


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/10/05/BA6350.DTL

[Democrats unite]

1. At this point I am not looking at polls...

I am just going to pray that the good people of California vote & do the right thing, and vote NO on the Recall.

[goforit]

2. Californians......Please wake up and smell the coffee!!!!

Swartzinager is just gonna do Bush's bidding!!!

[Wilso]

3. Don't know much about this.

I thought there was definitely going to be an election. Is there going to be an election to see if there is an election. (I'm not from the US.

[jamesinca]

4. There will be an election

It will happen Tuesday. There will two questions on the ballot. 1) Do you want to recall Gov. Gray Davis? Yes or No. 2). If Gov Davis is recalled, who do you want as his replacement? There are 135 people on the ballot running for governor.

The first question must be answered before the second one is even considered. If less than 50% say they want the Gov. recalled then Davis stays in office. If more than 50% want the recall then the person with the most votes from question 2 becomes governor. It only takes one vote, it is a simple majority issue. There are no runoff elections. At 8:00p.m. Pacific time it is done.

Wilso, Welcome to the DU

[gristy]

5. Davis has the momentum now.

From a different SF Chronicle article
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/10/05/national0907EDT0439.DTL

Over the four days the poll was taken, Ahnold's support dropped each day. If that momentum can be continued over the next 2 days, Davis will survive.

The percentage of people saying they would definitely vote to oust Davis, however, declined each day the poll was conducted, from 52 percent Wednesday to 44 percent Saturday. Those saying they either were probably going to vote for the recall or were unsure how to vote increased from 10 percent Wednesday to 24 percent Saturday.

[rocktivity]

7. The momentum WILL continue, gristy

If you pass around the a couple of copies of this:

http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=283&row=0
...It turns out that Schwarzenegger knowingly joined the hush-hush encounter as part of a campaign to sabotage a Davis-Bustamante plan to make Enron and other power pirates then ravaging California pay back the $9 billion in illicit profits they carried off.

...One month after Cruz brings suit, Enron's Lay calls an emergency secret meeting in L.A. of his political buck-buddies, including Arnold.

...the Bush commissioners cook up a terrific scheme:  charge the companies with conspiracy but offer them, behind closed doors, deals in which they have to pay only two cents on each dollar they filched.

Problem:  the slap-on-the-wrist refunds won't sail if the Governor of California won't play along.  Solution:  Re-call the Governor... 


rocknation

[villageidiot]

6. Lizards and Stuff

Media analyst Kaplan says Schwarzenegger’s rise speaks to the power of fame. “It suggests that celebrity is a kind of primal force that reaches into the lizard part of our brains. We can't help being attracted by fame."

"He is the perfect convergence of theater, show business, politics and journalism toward which we've been moving."

“People are now attacking me with women stuff. They're attacking me with Hitler stuff because they want to destroy my campaign," Schwarzenegger says.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/09/15/politics/main573174.shtml

[VolcanoJen]

8. Kick!

:dem:

[w4rma]

9. Just get out the vote! Forget about all the polls and GOTV!

That's what will matter. It's obvious from the scandals on Arnold (without looking at the polls) that Dems have the momentum.