STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY OCT 6....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday October 6, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 476
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 322
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 297 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 355 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 197
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 681
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 3, 2003

Dow... 9,572.31 +84.51 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq... 1,880.57 +44.35 (+2.42%)
S&P 500.... 1,029.85 +9.61 (+0.94%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% +0.19 (+4.64%)
Gold future... 370.00 -13.70 (-3.57%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[jamesinca]

1. Good morning Ozymandius

And a good morning to all those that are going to post. 26 hours till the recall vote starts, will it be a mover and shaker today and tommorrow?

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning James.

I've yet to scour the headlines to see what the mood looks like today. Something I noticed in yesterday's Atlanta paper: a headline read "Year 1 of the Next Bull Market". Of course, I think the writer is delusional. Typical whorish cheerleading.

[Maeve]

3. Monday, Monday

Good morning, all! Seems that the running of the bulls is expected to continue and all is fine now that the economy, which has lost over 2.5 million jobs under Dubya, gained 57,000 last month. Of course, contrarians already know what I'm about to quote...

While Wall Street reacted with glee to Friday's report, many economists urged caution. For one thing, most economists believe 125,000 new jobs a month are needed for several months to bring unemployment down significantly.
"Good news is when we get gains of 100,000 or 200,000 -- number could very easily be revised to negative 57,000," Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research, told CNNfn. "One month does not a trend make."
What's more, the household survey, which generates the unemployment rate and has been cited by some economists as a better indicator of the labor market after periods of weakness, showed a loss of 52,000 jobs. A separate Labor Department survey of businesses is used for the payroll numbers.
Nine million people were unemployed in September, the department said, 2.1 million of whom have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. The average duration of unemployment was 19.7 weeks and in recent months has been the longest since 1984.
snippets from the middle of
http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/03/news/economy/jobs/index.htm

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Maeve.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Like I told James above - the shrill proclaimations of a "new bull market" are receiving banner headlines in local rags like Atlanta's own AJC. *shaking head*

[JNelson6563]

8. 9 million unemployed

household survey says 52,000 jobs lost! Sometimes I wonder if the propagantists who do not report all the facts and push/spin what little they do reveal are liable for prosecution.

What is happening in this country has got to be about the biggest fraud of all time.

Thanks for posting this informative article Maeve. Hope all is well with you and family. How is your son liking college? I hope you can profit a bit in this "bull market" to help pay for it. ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

11. Thanks, Julie

#1 son is loving college and got a job bagging groceries to pay for his own tuition and books (no way we're going to be able to put four kids thru college). The family spent the weekend tearing down the old garden shed and building a new one (takes a lot longer than you might think!) and I have a ton of things to do this week (including finishing that project and cleaning up the mess), so I may not be around as much as usual. Next weekend, I'm running away from home for an Irish immersion weekend in PA.

Hope the dental "fun" is over for you!

[radfringe]

33. Hey Maeve

Where in PA? anywhere near Scranton or Wilkes-barre? I'm right around the corner from Wilkes-Barre

[Maeve]

37. Over by Pittsburgh

So still quite a ways from you.

If I ever do get over your way, I'll give you a holler!

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT: "When and why can we expect to see the October 2002 low violated?"

Some analysts are calling the October 2002 low the 4-year cycle low. At this time, I do not believe that we can make this call with certainty. Let’s now take a look at my reasons.

Because of the duration of the 4-year cycle, it can sometimes require extended periods of market action in order to confirm the 4-year cycle bottom. It is obviously very easy to look back in time and identify these bottoms, but how do you reliably identify a cycle of this duration in real time. Other than waiting on the future action of the market, I have found two tools that have historically worked great at identifying the 4-year cycle bottoms.

<cut>
Another tool that has proven to be the most accurate as an early indicator of 4-year bottoms is Peter Eliades’ CI/NCI indicator. CI stands for Cycle Indicator and NCI stands for Neutral Cycle Indicator. Peter states in his December newsletter, “There has never been an important market bottom in the history of the data going back to the 1920s with the CI/NCI ratio above 0.980 as it was in October 2002.

<cut>
Now, if October 2002 was the seasonal low, I would have to say that it was the weakest 4-year cycle low on record. This is based on the fact that the historical indicators failed to produce the technical signals normally seen at 4-year low. In any event, if October 2002 was the 4-year cycle low we can expect to see the current seasonal cycle decline hold above the October 2002 low. From that low a new seasonal cycle advance will begin. This advance should carry the market up for less than 6 months at which time that would mark both the seasonal and 4-year cycle tops. If this does occur, we can then look for the bear to take the stock market to new lows as we move down into the seasonal decline for 2004.

pretty technical stuff here - lots of charts and numbers

[JNelson6563]

6. Cheerleading in full swing this morn

All is wonderful in the happy-go-lucky world of the talking heads. Futures are bright and sunny! Yes indeedy, the fruit on the money tree is just ripe for the pickin'!

Of course we have mayhem in the ME, Watergate & Beyond is coming to a slow boil, California may put a "sexual predator" in the Gov's mansion, we still have 6.1% UE and Jr's poodle is not managing to keep things quiet over in the UK regarding this fraudulant war.

Is it any wonder everything's peachy on the Street? :eyes:

I hope you all had a good weekend, thanks for posting all those great stories in LBN James. Ozy, absolutely loved the Toon. Could it be anymore spot-on? <snarf>

May everyone be positioned to do well in whatever happens on the Street today. To successful bet placing! :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning Julie. Here's some pre-open yammering.

Stocks Set to Open Up; Results Awaited

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were poised to open a touch higher on Monday, building on strong gains made late last week amid fresh optimism that the economy and corporate profits are on the mend.

The third-quarter earnings period begins to heat up this week, and many investors are betting corporate America's results will show improvement.

<cut>
"People are feeling optimistic about earnings and they probably should," said Edgar Peters, chief investment officer at PanAgora Asset Management, adding that the recent weakness of the dollar could help bolster earnings at some companies. The jobs data "encouraged everyone that things are picking up."

<cut>
Wall Street has little in the way of key economic data to help give it direction on Monday, but investors will be watching out for reports on wholesale inventories, international trade and producer-level prices later in the week.

story

[jamesinca]

12. Thanks for reading them

I try to do my part to keep it stirred up.

[ozymandius]

7. Storm Watch Update from Jim Puplava

October 3, 2003

The 'OK' Economy

The easiest way to gain an understanding of the U.S. economy is to think in terms of four words: debt, consumption, speculation, and illusion. When looking at the U.S. economy from the perspective of these four words, it becomes easier to understand why the recovery isn’t shaping up like the cyclical recoveries of the past.

It has become a start and stop economy for the last two years. The economy picks up steam after stimulus is applied, then it begins to fizzle once that stimulus has been exhausted. Without the constant input of new stimulus—either through interest rate or tax cuts or deficit spending—the economy rolls over. It is a bubble economy where real economic growth has been anemic, job growth has been nonexistent, and business fixed investment has been absent.

This sputtering economy requires an ongoing stream of new stimulus just in order to keep it afloat. Compared to past recoveries, economic growth has been half of what it has averaged over the last half century. It is also the first time in history that the economy went into recession against a backdrop of rabid money and credit growth. Fed stimulus failed to keep the economy out of recession.

What makes this situation more worrisome is that it has taken 13 rate cuts, three tax cuts, massive government deficits, and record growth in money and credit just to keep the economy growing. In economic terms, it is the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus the world has ever seen. What does the Fed have to show for its efforts other than multiple bubbles and the return of speculation to the financial markets?

more...

[JNelson6563]

9. de ja vu all over again...

This is the second article posted this morn that so well expresses much of what I've been thinking. I am not formally educated in economics other than what I took in high school but my dad was in financial division with General Motors and my maternal grandmother was an heiress who loved the markets. Oy! They were like two peas in a pod. How often they would discuss the world of finance and I would sit and listen and ask questions. Coupled with the countless hours I spent in those near-famous "kitchen-table talks" with just my dad, well it was pretty heady stuff for a kid but when you grow up with a steady diet of such fare it becomes an intuitive thing.

Why do I blather on so? haha These articles lead me to believe that indeed I did benefit greatly from the company of those two grand souls who I still miss pretty often. Makes me feel pretty fortunate to have had them for the time that I did, you know?

There really are other ways to be wealthy besides money. :-)

Julie

[mhr]

16. Great Article

I have been following this series for a time and think this latest update says it all.

Paul Krugman addressed the economy in a lecture last week and made the comment that we will probably be like Wiley Coyote when Wylie runs off the cliff and there is a brief moment before he falls.

In other words the tipping point for the economy will probably only be recognized for the smallest fraction of time before all hell breaks loose.

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

well, the INO site is down :( so I cannot get today's numbers - but the Dec futures are down

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/quote.asp?sym=DXZ3&mode=i

Dec 'Z3 (DXZ3)93.38 -0.15 93.51 93.61 93.35

there may be a some news later regarding the Chinese yuan/dollar situation

edited to add link regarding yuan

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2003/10/06/rtr1100226.html

The greenback came under brief pressure in Asia after Jiji new agency, citing financial sources in Beijing, reported that China's central bank was considering revaluing the yuan by nearly 30 percent over the next five years.

The Group of Seven (G7) industrialised nations, in a statement on September 20, called for more flexibility on exchange rates, a call the market concluded was aimed at Japan and China in particular.

"The G7 message will hit home eventually. If Asia loosens, the burden of U.S. current account deficit adjustment will be shared with Asia. The euro/dollar has already conducted the bulk of the adjustment," Jalinoos said.

[Maeve]

14. Here we go! Opening UP

Dow 9,584.98 +12.67 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,885.36 +4.79 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,030.99 +1.15 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222% +0.027

And here I go--catch you later!

[On the Road]

15. Opened a Little Up

Who knows? I was convinced this would be a down day, and it still may be. But no island reversal or evening star or whatever. The strength of this market has me really baffled.

[ozymandius]

17. 9:57 update and goodbye

I have some work to be finished today - so I'll be out-of-pocket for any updates. Have a great day Marketeers.

Dow 9,579.87 +7.56 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,884.22 +3.65 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,032.12 +2.28 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222% +0.027

[UpInArms]

18. actual dollar quote for 10/6/03

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.73 Change -0.50 (-0.54%)

[JNelson6563]

19. 10:29 update

careful with those charts, lots of sharp ponts to put your eye out with:


Dow 9,573.61 +1.30 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,884.59 +4.02 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,030.25 +0.40 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.208% +0.013


Julie

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Bumpy ride?

Bumpy Ride?

[JNelson6563]

24. I'd say that sums it up perfectly!

:-)

[JNelson6563]

20. clawing its way up at 11:00

Dow 9,580.46 +8.15 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,882.97 +2.40 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,030.89 +1.04 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% +0.002

Hugging the flat-line pretty close today.

Julie

[mrsteve]

22. 11:40 - Mr Toad's Wild Ride is up a bit...

Dow 9,581.20 +8.89 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,884.88 +4.31 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,031.50 +1.66 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.206% +0.011

[mrsteve]

23. Yahoo Finance Update

Bland Assurances at 11:30 -
"11:30AM: Major indices hold tight to their narrow trading ranges as traders remain selective in their buying decisions... The only industry groups posting noteworthy gains are software, computer hardware, brokerage, airline, and homebuilding... All others are just about unchanged for the day... That being said, selling pressure has not been particularly strong or widespread, and that fact has kept the market in positive territory...
Investors have simply been rather inert this morning due to the Yom Kippur holiday, the onset of the September quarter reporting period, and the indices' strong run last week..."

[JNelson6563]

25. well Jr spoke and things were looking up

but after his blathering at the "Leak-gate" question things seem to be going down. When will they learn to keep him quiet during Market hours? It's like you almost have to plan any day trading around his appearances....

Anyhow, it's 12:07 and here's what we've got:

Dow 9,584.98 +12.67 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,887.02 +6.45 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,032.28 +2.43 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.201% +0.006



Julie

[JNelson6563]

26. Hold the phone!!

We're rockin'!!

11:28


Dow 9,614.76 +42.45 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,893.30 +12.73 (+0.68%)
S&P 500 1,035.11 +5.26 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% -0.002


Party on!

Julie

[caber09]

27. What do you know....

Lunchtime, people out to lunch and the usual lunchtime spike, I swear the most gains in the stock mkt recently have been during lunchtime. Flat start, huge spike during lunch, flat or declining afterwards, big spike last half hr...seems the biggest spikes up happen when less people are trading..hmmm looks fishy..maybe i am just paranoid. All I know is that almost every company I contact for work says their budgets are tight due to the very poor economic climate..spoke to several last week who are going bankrupt or had just laid off many people...but but but Fox and Bush say its boom time again!

[radfringe]

35. the "spikes" are due to the 3-"martooni" lunch

it either flatens or spikes until around 1:30pm-ish

the "buyers" phone in their orders over lunch, while the sellers are eating lunch

You are not paranoid - it's a "normal" occurrance

[mrsteve]

28. 12:52 - numbers stay near highs for day

Dow 9,611.35 +39.04 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,891.54 +10.97 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,034.63 +4.78 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.196% +0.001

[mrsteve]

29. 12:32 - still up near highs

Not a day to be contrarian...

Dow 9,609.20 +36.89 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,891.47 +10.90 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,034.78 +4.94 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.181% -0.014

[mrsteve]

30. 2:00 - A little off the highs, but still up there

Dow 9,610.98 +38.67 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,890.06 +9.49 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,034.95 +5.10 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177% -0.018


A little Yahoo Finance perspective:
"1:30PM: Very little change in the past hour as the market continues to trade in moderately higher territory...
Although its comes on extremely light volume totals, today's advance is still encouraging from a bull's perspective as it represents an extension of last week's recovery effort... Buyers stepped in and used the lower levels resulting from the September 22-26 sell-off as an opportunity to add to positions...
Due, in part, to the inclination of traders to buy on periods of weakness, Briefing.com continues to see little reason why the year-long rally won't continue...
The low-interest rate environment and the accelerating rate of corporate profit growth remains extremely accommodative to share price appreciation...
For more perspective on this view, be sure to visit Stock Briefs... "

[mrsteve]

31. 2:50 - still high for day, but volume is miserable

Dow 9,610.98 +38.67 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,890.06 +9.49 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,034.95 +5.10 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177% -0.018

The Yahoo Finance charts say we are 20% - 30% below regular volume. Where's everybody go?

[JNelson6563]

32. they say it's because of Yom Kippur

hope I spelled that right. That was one of the things I have heard it attributed to.

Could be part of the watch-and-see strategy too.

Julie


Edited to add: A bit of a pullback going on...about 3:00



Dow 9,598.02 +25.71 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,889.19 +8.62 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,034.23 +4.38 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156% -0.039

[mrsteve]

34. 3:35 - Nasdaq still up, Dow falling

Looks like a few profit takers on a low volume day for the Dow -

Dow 9,600.39 +28.08 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,891.23 +10.66 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 1,034.57 +4.72 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% -0.044

[Maeve]

36. I agree--profits were taken

Dow 9,594.98 +22.67 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,893.46 +12.89 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,034.35 +4.50 (+0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% -0.044

[mrsteve]

38. Volumes at end of day - off badly

Wouldn't want to take today as a trend of any kind, tho - Dow volumes were low by roughly 33% to last 4 day average, Nasdaq was 25% low.