WP: Sunnis Demand Terms for Constitution (Want 25 more seats)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/08/AR2005060801509_pf.html

Groups on both sides of Iraq's emerging sectarian divide dug in their heels Wednesday, with a Sunni Muslim political bloc demanding 25 more seats on the committee that will write the country's permanent constitution and Iraq's president and prime minister offering glowing praise for a controversial Shiite Muslim militia.

Iraqi lawmakers have been struggling for weeks to reach an agreement on incorporating more Sunni members. Because Sunnis largely boycotted the country's legislative elections in January, they are underrepresented in the parliament and have just two seats on the 55-member constitution committee, which is scheduled to hold its next meeting Thursday.

A group of prominent leaders of Iraq's Sunnis -- who, according to most estimates, make up 15 to 20 percent of the population but often argue that their numbers are higher -- met Wednesday and released a statement of prerequisites for their participation in the constitution writing process.

"We demand 25 seats in the committee so the number would be equal to what the Sunni Arabs represent in Iraq. They form 42 percent of the community," said Adnan Dulaimi, who heads the government agency that oversees Sunni affairs.

[knowbody0]

1. that will be hard to argue against

[expatriot]

2. Shias will argue that they don't represent "42%" of the population

that number is the highest figure I've seen yet. Wishful thinking on the Sunnis part.

[LynnTheDem]

4. Shia scholars have already said Sunni = 40%

BAGHDAD - Fresh statistics by an international organization suggested that Iraq's Sunnis are in a clear majority, as Shiite scholars conceded that Shiites could make up as much as 40 percent of the whole population.

The statistics, released by a reliable international humanitarian relief agency in 2003, suggested that Sunnis make up 58 percent of the Iraqi population and Shiites 40 percent.

http://www.islamonline.net/English/News/2004-01/29/article02.shtml

http://occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=2784

I would like to know which humanitarian group.

[geek tragedy]

10. Sunni Arabs and Kurds (also Sunnis) are two different groups.

Sunni Arabs do not comprise a majority of the population. It is possible that when people say "Sunni" they mean "Sunni Arabs."

[LynnTheDem]

13. Would be interesting to hear from the Iraqi Shia scholars in the article

and from the international humanitarian group mentioned.

They are the ones. according to the article, saying Sunnis are the majority or at least evenly divided with the Shia.

[geek tragedy]

14. If you divide it strictly by religion, it probably is 50/50 or very close.

But, you have to subtract the number of Kurds from the number of Sunnis when you do a political analysis.

So, both of these breakdowns are possible:

(a)
Sunni: 55%
Shiite: 45%

(b)
Shiite: 45%
Sunni Arab 35%
Kurd: 20%

[LynnTheDem]

15. But the Shia in the article don't make it clear if that's what they mean.

So it would be interesting to hear from the same scholars today as to exactly what they mean.

[geek tragedy]

16. Since their numbers add up to 98% between the Sunni and Shiites, one

can infer that they didn't distinguish between Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds.

[Supersedeas]

22. who would argue when ya can just ignore

[expatriot]

3. 42%? why right

If they formed 42% and kurds and turkmen and all others TOGETHER only formed 16% of the population... then Shia's would also be 42%.... there is something wrong with the Sunnis math.... tis a shame, to. there can be no understanding come out of this.

[Igel]

9. The math gets screwed up because we use

Sunni as shorthand for Sunni Arab. Few Iraqis are anything but Sunni or Shi'a.

Many Kurds are also Sunni; probably a majority are Shi'a. And most are reputed to be Sufi.

It doesn't help that everybody wants to marginalize the non-Arabs and reduce their importance. Getting at facts is hard, and making sense of them is no easier.

[geek tragedy]

11. Actually, most Kurds are Sunnis. eom

[Igel]

19. Thank you. I stand corrected.

But is it true that they are mostly Sufis?

On edit: I guess I should add that my understanding is that Sufism cuts across the Sunni/Shi'a divide (not including all varieties of each, but some varieties from both).

[geek tragedy]

20. There are significant number of Sufist Kurds, but that Kurds are still

predominantly Sunni. There are a few Christian and Shiite Kurds too, of course.

[Igel]

21. Link.

I can't judge it's accuracy, but http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Sufism seems to chart a middle course.

"Many Sufi practitioners are organized into a very diverse range of brotherhoods and sisterhoods. Although many orders ("tariqas") can be classified as Shi'a or Sunni or even both, there are a few that are clearly neither Shiah nor Sunni and so constitute a separate sphere of Islamic faith."

Although I note with some amusement that pasting that bit into DU's interface showed up some hidden text: "This article is in need of attention."

The same link continues:
"The relationship between traditional Islamic Schools and Sufism is complicated by at least three important factors. Firstly, Sufism as a separate movement within Islam makes its appearance quite late, so we cannot know for sure how the very earliest of the scholars would have treated it. Secondly, the founders and earlier scholars of the schools have displayed mixed opinions towards Sufism. Thus, although some of them recognized Sufism, illustrated e.g. by Imam Hambal's frequent visits to the Sufi master Bishr al Hafi, there are others who considered Sufism to be heretical, to the extent of leading to disbelief. Thirdly, the term Sufism has had such a wide range of connotations attached to it, mostly emotive definitions rather than theological or logical ones, that a comparison to traditional Islam is essentially not possible except in a strictly defined context."

I understand "school" to mean "fiqh", not the Sunni/Shi'a divide. It's as bad as trying to sort out all the various Xian groups; why doesn't that surprise me?

[denverbill]

5. Will they be able to filibuster with just 25 seats?

Will the damned obstructionist Sunnis force the Shiites to use the 'nuclear option' when they propose radical Shiite judges and the Sunnis only approve 95% of them?

[Sgt. Baker]

6. part of me

Wants to say they did it to themselves. They opposed the creation of the new government and now that it is in place they demand to be part of it.

[LynnTheDem]

7. The silly part?

The part that actually for one moment thought only the Sunni boycotted the fake fradulant "elections" when in fact more Shia boycotted than Sunni and the "election" and the "government" are fake & fradulant?

[Sgt. Baker]

8. how many

how many Iraqi's actually voted? How many were shia and how many were sunni? I don't know and am trying to catch up with you guys. Last I heard it was like 60% of the population that voted.

[LynnTheDem]

12. First off, you have "elections" under foreign armed occupation, under

martial law, during a raging war, with the highest number of insurgent attacks recorded since bush attacked Iraq in 2003, voting for blind Parties (the Iraqis didn't know what people were in the Parties nor what the Party platforms were) and told if they didn't vote they wouldn't get their food ration coupons.

Hmmm.

There were huge boycotts by IRAQIS. It's bushCartel & their pundits want you to believe Sunnis vs Shia. That's total bullshit. Iraqis are tribal and almost ALL Iraqi tribes have Sunni AND Shia branches within the same tribe.

Gee I wonder why so many Iraqis thought the "elections" were total bullshit and boycotted;

You can use any figure for total voting population, as we're using percentages. The estimate is 50% of Iraq's total population, so let's use 10,000,000 total adults eligible to vote;

60% of 100,000 = 6,000,000 Shia
20% of 100,000 = 2,000,000 Sunni
20% of 100,000 = 2,000,000 Kurds/other

Number of total votes; 56%
Less Kurd/other votes; 20%

Number of Shia votes, assuming NO Sunnis voted whatsover; 36%.

Therefore 60% - 36% = 24% Shia who didn't vote.

Total number of Shia that didn't vote; 24% of 10,000,000 = 2,400,000.

Total number of Sunni that didn't vote; 2,000,000.

Almost half a million more SHIA didn't vote than Sunni.

Hmmm.

No one voted for bush's pet Chalabi; yet Chalabi is now Minister of Iraq's Oil Ministry, and his nephew, also not voted for, is Minister of Iraq's Finance.

Hmmm.

What the US MSM won't tell you

Contrary to many Western press reports which depicted the debate over the election date as polarising Iraq along sectarian lines -- with the majority of Shia pro-election, while the Sunnis are pro-delay -- Iraqi political activist Mussa Al-Husseini (Shia) told the Weekly that there were also large sections of the Shia population who are committed to boycotting the elections.

Al-Husseini, who describes himself as a secular Shia, went on to point out that there are large numbers of Iraqi Shia who will boycott the elections despite Sistani's calls to go to the polls, because they believe that the whole process is merely a charade intended to bestow legitimacy on an illegitimate order.

"The real issue is not about a Sunni boycott versus Shia participation," Al- Husseini insisted. "It is about whether you are against the occupation and support the national resistance. And there are as many Shia as there are Sunnis in that camp."

http://why-war.com/news/2004/12/02/tovoteor.html

"This is a statement issued and signed by 69 independent political groups, religious authorities ( marjyia ), tribal leaders and independent public figures," Mothana Hareth Al-Dari, spokesman for the influential Sunni Muslim Cleric's Association (MCA) said. The statement advocated an "absolute boycott" of the elections. No vote, it continued, "promoted by the occupation forces" can result in sovereignty and independence for the Iraqi people. It cited "vicious" attacks by the occupation on Iraqi cities like Najaf, Karbalaa, Samara, Mosul, Baghdad and "especially the genocidal war launched on Falluja", as among the reasons for boycotting the elections. "The undersigned realise that...the results of the vote have already been decided in favour of those supporting the occupation."

The signatories include Sunni, Shia, Christian, Turkman, Kurdish, Islamic and secular groups.

A Shia electoral list was announced last week, with the blessing of Iraq's senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. Significantly, it did not include supporters of Al-Sadr. The 275 candidate list is expected to dominate the Iraqi parliament and has created the false impression that the boycott is essentially Sunni, while Iraq's Shia are happy to vote.

"You must realise," cautioned Al-Ali, "that there is a big difference between a Shia list and the Shia list. Yes, there is an electoral list, but it doesn't represent all the Shia. Don't forget that the Al-Sadrist movement is influential in the Iraqi street and it is boycotting the elections." The elections' opponents, he stressed, include both Sunni and Shia.

"I speak now as a Shia," he told the Weekly, "and what they are doing is dividing the nationalist line. We will not hesitate to expose those who do that."

And, according to the MCA's Al-Dhari, "one quarter of the election boycott front is Shia."

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/721/re7.htm

[Sgt. Baker]

17. mmm

I don't care for made up numbers very much even if it's just to figure percentages. Just don't do anything for me. I did a bit of searching and came up with this.


Number of votes:
List Name -List Number/Number of Votes/Seats Won

Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq - 111/43,205/2. The Kurdistan Alliance -130/2,175,551/75. The United Iraqi Alliance -169/4,075,295/140. The Turkomen Iraqi Front - 175/93,480/3. Assyrian Christians - 204/36,255/1. Iraqis - 255/150,680/5. The National Democratic Alliance - 258/ 36,795/1. The Islamic Kurdish Society - 283/60,592/2. The Iraqi List - 285/1,168,943/40. Reconciliation/Liberation Entity - 311/30,796/1. The Communist Party - 324/69.920/2. National Independent Elites and Cadres Party - 352/69,938/3.

TOTAL - 8,011,450/275
http://www.labourfriendsofiraq.org.uk/archives/000259.html



Age structure:
0-14 years: 40% (male 5,293,709/female 5,130,826)
15-64 years: 57% (male 7,530,619/female 7,338,109)
65 years and over: 3% (male 367,832/female 413,811) (2005 est.)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/iz.html

There are 15,650,371 people 15 and older in Iraq. 18 is the voting age. So about 50% of the voting population actually voted. Probably a little more if you take into account the 15, 16 and 17 yr. olds who are part of that 15.6 million.


Isn't that about the same turnout we had for the 2004 election here in the US?

I'm not trying to say you're wrong or anything. The election could have gone much better and there were tons of problems and irregularities. I just wanted the actual numbers. I'm kinda weird that way.
:hi:

[LynnTheDem]

18. We don't know the actual numbers

But if almost half the voting population didn't vote, then obviously more Shia abstained than Sunnis, when you go by 60% Shia and 20% Sunni.