STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 13 June

[ozymandius]

Monday June 13, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 222 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 176 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 239 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1296
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 10, 2005

Dow... 10,512.63 +9.61 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,063.00 -13.91 (-0.67%)
S&P 500... 1,198.11 -2.82 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% +0.08 (+2.07%)
Gold future... 429.30 +3.20 (+0.75%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Gold, Poised to Rally?

Yes, gold is setting up for a rally of at least intermediate degree. This rally will be a very very important test and a lot is on the line as it relates to gold’s future. This rally will tell us without a doubt if gold is still in a secular bull market or if it has turned the corner and is now operating in a secular bear market.

Before moving on here I want to explain that cycles in the market is really nothing more than a method of looking at the various trends of various degrees within a given market. We have long, intermediate and short-term cycles that are used to quantify the price movements of each of these corresponding trends. All three of these price trends are constantly at play as they ebb and flow with and sometimes against one another. For example, the longer term trend may be trending hard in a given direction, but then when the intermediate term cycle turns, it will create a secondary price movement that is counter to the primary trend as defined by the longer term cycle. It is through cycle analysis that we are able to separate these different time horizons so that we can analyze the interrelationship of the different trends.

-cut-

Up until 2004, the 9-year cycle advance had never had more than 4 intermediate term cycle advances into the longer-term 9-year cycle top. The advance out of the April 2003 low was the 4th intermediate term cycle advance within the longer-term 9-year cycle. Therefore, gold was expected to top with that intermediate term advance in late 2003. But, this advance into the intermediate term cycle continued pushing higher into early 2004 and then dropped hard into the April 2004 low. This concluded the 4th intermediate term advance within the larger 9-year cycle. Since there had never been a 9-year cycle that had advanced into a 5th intermediate term cycle, odds suggested that gold had then topped.

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.19 Change +0.50 (+0.56%)

One Final Push?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1522&Itemid=39

If there was ever proof that FX is a pure sentiment market witness the reaction to Friday’s “bullish” Trade Balance numbers. The April results printed a whisker shy of -$58 Billion putting the annual run rate at almost -$700 Billion or approximately 6% of GDP! Yet the EUR/USD sold off to the tune of almost 130 points marking new yearly highs for the greenback. What is going on?

Expectations for one. The market was afraid that the number would print in excess of -$60 Billion and when the actual result was considerably less and prior month’s data was revised to -$53 Billion from --$55 Billion, the relived dollar bulls pressed their trades further.

More importantly however is market positioning. Everybody, including your truly, is still trying to catch the bottom in the EUR/USD move. Last Thursday our proprietary SSI reading showed speculators switching to net long positions in the euro – of course inviting further pain as the down move continued. The pair may need to hit 1.2000 with an overwhelming majority of speculators rushing to establish euro shorts before we finally see a turn.

...more...

Dollar Launches Surprise Move Against Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1523&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls were once again under attack by the dollar longs as the weekend gave no relief to the single currency from the unrelenting onslaught by the greenback bulls. As the pair continues to head toward the psychologically important 1.2000 figure, a move toward the handle will most likely end in a reversal as the dollar traders about to lose the control over the price action. A move to the upside will most likely see the pair test the offers below the 1.2400 figure, with a further move to the upside being capped by 1.2500 figure. Indicators signal a maturing trend with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart at 41.57. Stochastic is treading below oversold line on the daily chart at 15.51, which is indicative of a trending market. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is also oversold at 15.07. RSI is oversold on the daily chart at 16.23 with the 4-hour chart RSI treading along the oversold line at 31.52. MACD remains deep below the zero line on the daily chart and is sloping downward below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen once again faced the offers around the 2005 high following another attack by the dollar longs. As the pair left a triple top formation in its wake, the price action will most likely going to be dominated by the yen traders with the pair aiming toward the 106.50, a recent swing low and a triangle’s lower boundary. A break in the triangle’s lower boundary will most likely see the pair touch 104.50, thus establishing a triple bottom, which would create an interesting trading setup, where the break below will see continuing domination by the yen longs with the pair aiming for 101.00. A reversal will confirm strength by the dollar bulls and will most likely see the pair move toward the 109.00 figure. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 21.80. Stochastic is neutral on the daily chart at 36.85 with Stochastic on the 4-hour chart treading above the overbought line at 85.3, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is treading below the overbought line at 63.37 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart RSI dipping below the overbought line at 67.46. MACD is about to make a bullish crossover above the zero line on the daily chart, with MACD on the 4-hour chart treading above the zero line. If the yen bulls retreat, a move to the upside will most likely see the USD/JPY rocket through 109.00 and target the 110.00 figure, with a breakout targeting the 115.00.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

Still have company - so expect sporadic posts :D

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning UIA and everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

The dollar's drop was the topic of a news story this AM on the Marketplace morning report. It seems that currency traders are all a-twitter about the dollar's loss of three cents versus the euro in three days. The report stated that while currency analysts scrutinize the value of currency in terms of 1/10 of a cent - a three cent shift is like a 5.0 earthquake.

Apparently, Greenscam's testimony had everything to do with this drop.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

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[ozymandius]

25. Oops - I reversed that. Sorry

The reporter said that on Friday the dollar was trading at $1.23/euro. It was recently at $1.20/euro.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

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[converted_democrat]

6. Hi, UIA and Ozzy...................

Either of you two feel like fielding a question?

[ozymandius]

9. Sure. Go ahead. I'll take a swing at it - if I have a inkling. n/t

[converted_democrat]

10. Well...........

Yesterday I was watching our local 24 hour news channel Bay News Nine. They were covering a story about how the World Bank was going to be funded differently from here on out. Something about how the "richest" countries were going to contribute in a new way. It was very general, and I tried to go the website to get the link, but all they have is local stuff. I called them and I am waiting for a producer that comes in later to send me info about the story. Why would the World Bank change it's funding practices now? And does it mean anything? Have you heard anything?

[ozymandius]

12. I found this....

At the heart of the arguments raging behind closed doors since September has been not simply the issue of whether the debt should be written off, but how and for whom, and whether extra aid should be given on top. In this detail - the practical mechanisms and the ideology - the bitterest arguments have been located.

-cut-
Under the deal thrashed out over the past week and announced yesterday by Brown, full absolution from debt - a total of $40 billion - will go to 18 countries who have completed the World Bank's Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative (HIPC).

-cut-
The US - which had opposed giving extra aid on top of debt forgiveness - has now agreed to a scheme which will see lending institutions such as the World Bank and the Africa Development Fund compensated for their losses.

But this would be on the condition that further loans and grants be used wherever the lenders felt most appropriate and decided by a separate set of criteria - and not necessarily go directly just to the countries whose debts have been forgiven, which is what Britain wanted.

-cut-
It has been achieved, most importantly from Washington's point of view, with the IMF's gold reserves remaining untouched in funding the deal. The result has been a hard-fought compromise that has satisfied both US and European demands that further aid be more accountable on good governance and economic development, and the British demand for as wide a debt forgiveness scheme as possible.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/development/story/0,15709,1504825,00.html

Interesting - future funding of debt relief for third world nation is tied to keeping hands off the gold reserves.

[converted_democrat]

13. Thank you Ozzy, I really appreciate it.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[specimenfred1984]

16. From a Trading Perspective...

"More importantly however is market positioning. Everybody, including your truly, is still trying to catch the bottom in the EUR/USD move."

That's a very bad idea, trying to pick a top or a bottom. Measuring speculator fear and/or greed is impossible, you just have to wait until the market proves itself and starts moving in one direction or another.

For example, trying to pick a top in the USD today would've cost ya! Financial writers try to make picks because they need to sell their writings. Even worse, today's markets are rigged as hell so conventional analysis just doesn't work. Any article that can't relate corruption to current trends is worthless in my opinion.

Another example, this fx person mentions expectations and my expectations are that the corrupt U.S. will keep propping $hit up via illegal interventions in currencies and stocks and bonds. And, even if it's pseudo-legal, the Fed sure as hell isn't going to let anyone know about it.

[UpInArms]

3. Morgan Stanley issues profit warning

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38516.3437357986-836635948&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Morgan Stanley (MWD) on Monday said it expects its fiscal second-quarter earnings to be approximately 15-20% below the year-ago figure of $1.10 a share. "The results were primarily driven by the weakened market conditions that the company had previously announced," Morgan Stanley said. "The company is still in the process of preparing second quarter financial statements and it is currently not anticipating a change in the Coleman litigation reserve." Morgan Stanley said it plans to hold a conference call later on Monday.

[ozymandius]

8. Morgan Stanley CEO Plans to Retire

NEW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO Philip J. Purcell said Monday he is planning to retire from the Wall Street investment bank amid calls for his ouster from a group of dissident shareholders and former executives.

-cut-

Shares of Morgan Stanley rose $2.28, or 4.8 percent, to $52.16 in premarket trading after the news.

Earlier Monday, the cable news channel CNBC had reported Purcell had been fired.

Purcell said in a letter to employees that he plans to retire as soon as a successor is named, but no later than the firm's next annual meeting next March.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050613/morgan_stanley.html?.v=6

[ozymandius]

5. pre-open blather

8:53AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Little change in the futures trade over the past half hour, as current indications point to a relatively flat start... News that Morgan Stanley's CEO has "retired" is the top corporate item this morning; on a related note MWD also warned today that Q2 EPS will miss consensus estimates... There is no economic data today

8:05AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures trade suggesting a relatively lackluster start for the major indices... Likely to be a different case, though, for shares of Morgan Stanley (MWD), which are expected to be quite active following reports this morning that CEO Purcell has been fired... Separately, United Technologies (UTX) has reaffirmed its FY05 EPS outlook and should provide a measure of support for the Dow

[ozymandius]

11. Stocks Are Set to Open Lower

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock futures are lower Monday, with market indices continuing in the same direction they left off Friday. Trading is expected to remain quiet with little economic or corporate data scheduled to offer direction.

-cut-

No major companies are scheduled to report earnings Monday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City releases its manufacturing index for May at 11:00 a.m. EDT. The regional Fed's production index, which encompasses the Kansas City Fed district, fell to 20 in April from 44 in March.

After spending much of Friday trading lower, U.S. stocks finished the week with a mixed performance, with the Dow industrials buoyed by a strong showing from General Motors. Shares of the Detroit auto maker advanced on hopes that it would make some headway with its workers on health-care costs.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050613/wall_street.html?.v=4

[Maeve]

14. And lower it is at 9:51

Dow 10,484.43 -28.20 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,061.62 -1.38 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,195.56 -2.55 (-0.21%)

[ozymandius]

17. and hovering

10:26
Dow 10,482.44 -30.19 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,062.33 -0.67 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,196.01 -2.10 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.083% +0.04

NYSE Volume 289,472,000
Nasdaq Volume 290,013,000

[Maeve]

18. 10:30 bounce!

Dow 10,537.37 +24.74 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,074.11 +11.11 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,201.74 +3.63 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 40.92 +0.45 (+1.11%)

:shrug:

[specimenfred1984]

19. WTF caused that to happen?

I see/read nothing on any newswires. Got any ideas anyone?

[Maeve]

Elves? Gnomes?

The only explanation I find is the prosaic "techs rebound" so my guess is the writers are as confused as anyone else.

[specimenfred1984]

21. That's All I See Too

The nasdaq futures broke some very mild resistence on the 2 minute chart and that sent them flying.

I have real-time quotes via esignal, let me know if you need any quotes although I'm in-and-out on the boards so I'm probably not the most reliable person to ask.

Another guess about the move is speculation about this weeks fraudulent inflation reports, people guessing the rhetoric will be "There's no inflation" so Greedspan won't keep raising rates.

[ewagner]

20. My Sentiments exactly

Wow! What a bounce!!

[ozymandius]

22. I nearly jumped out of my socks!

What the hell???

Dow 10,584.79 +72.16 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,078.05 +15.05 (+0.73%)
S&P 500 1,205.86 +7.75 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.087% +0.04
NYSE Volume 507,848,000
Nasdaq Volume 496,797,000

11:09

[Roland99]

23. Some gov't-backed groups buying up stocks to bolster the market?

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ozymandius]

26. as soon as a successor is found

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050613/morgan_stanley.html?.v=11

EW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley CEO Philip J. Purcell, acknowledging that calls for his ouster and a string of top-level defections have hurt the Wall Street investment bank, said Monday he will retire as soon as a successor can be found.

...

News of Purcell's planned retirement came three days after nine stock traders left the company, the latest in a series of departures by employees unhappy with Purcell's management style. The resignations, which began in late March, had led a group of dissident shareholders and former executives to publicly call for Purcell's firing and a reorganization at Morgan Stanley.

[ozymandius]

28. Some blather - yadayadayada

Stocks Higher on Morgan Stanley News

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rebounded Monday as investors grew more confident ahead of key economic reports due later this week, and following the announcement that embattled Morgan Stanley CEO Phil Purcell was retiring.

With inflation and retail sales figures expected Tuesday and Wednesday, trading got off to a slow start but picked up as the morning wore on. Word of Purcell's pending departure intensified focus on the financial sector, which accounts for more than 20 percent of the Standard & Poor's 500, especially as investment bankers Lehman Bros., Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs Group prepare to release earnings later this week.

But analysts said in the scope of things, it wasn't big news.

"I don't see Morgan Stanley being much of a motivator for the market today. Perhaps it clears up a little bit of uncertainty, but it's so company specific, I'm not sure it has that big an impact," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist for Schwab's CyberTrader. "The bigger impact this week will be the focus on tomorrow's Producer Price Index and retail sales. ... I think it's clear the market is anticipating better economic numbers going forward."

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050613/wall_street.html?.v=12

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[specimenfred1984]

30. Funny

It's more like "stocks rebounded Monday as speculators are desperate as hell as the DOW hasn't gone any-fcking-where in 6 fcking years!"

No wonder I don't write financial headlines for a living. Imagine being forced to write about what a great buy GOOG is now?

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Maeve]

31. In other words, they don't have a clue, either!

At least we're willing to present the possibility that gnomes are at work! (anyone who wants to know what a gnome looks like, Goolge image for "greenspan")

[ozymandius]

32. Well, geez - this might explain some of it.

Oil Dips Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Oil prices fell Monday as traders prepared for OPEC's semiannual meeting later this week, at which the cartel is expected to lift its formal production quotas by 500,000 barrels a day.

July crude was recently down 9 cents at $53.45 a barrel in Nymex electronic trading. Gasoline futures fell 1 cent to $1.53 a gallon.

Crude prices plunged Friday as concerns over the effect of topical storm Arlene eased. Worries about the strength of the storm had contributed to higher oil prices before it became clear Arlene probably wouldn't be terribly disruptive to production in the Gulf of Mexico.

The approaching meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 15, when formal output quotas are expected to be raised, also helped dampen last Thursday's surge in crude and distillate prices.

more...

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/stocks/elinorarbel/10227681.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

mind you ... what they wish to happen and what will actually happen are two very different things.

[Maeve]

35. Compare and contrast stories

Oil jumps before OPEC
Dealers worry over supplies for later this year, uncertainty over actual effect of raising output.
June 13, 2005: 10:53 AM EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - World crude prices jumped as much as $1 Monday morning ahead of an OPEC meeting that could see the oil cartel raise its production ceiling but is unlikely to add any actual extra oil to the market.

Prices fell sharply in a pre-weekend selloff Friday as it became evident that a storm in the Gulf of Mexico was fading and was unlikely to seriously damage U.S. facilities in the region.

But dealers said worries over supplies of oil products later this year as well as uncertainty over OPEC's ability to actually produce much more oil are supporting sentiment.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/13/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

[ozymandius]

37. Someone has their thumb on the scale.

In other words - what are the facts? Which story is square with them? Or are they both correct? Oil and associated prices rose briefly just to fall again?

[Roland99]

36. Wow...$0.09 drop in oil causes 100pt. positive swing in the Dow??

:wtf:

[ozymandius]

33. (as if they really need this news)Ford recalls over 250,000 trucks, SUVs

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. is recalling over 250,000 vehicles, most of them large pickup trucks, to fix safety defects that include sudden stalling of diesel engines, federal safety regulators said Monday.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the stalling problem affected F-Series superduty pickups from the 2004-2005 model years as well as the 2004-2005 Ford Excursion full-size sport utility vehicle and E350 and E450 vans.

All 180,104 of those vehicles are equipped with 6.0-liter diesel engines and the recall stems from a potentially faulty fuel injection control module, NHTSA said.

Separately, it said Ford was recalling 78,675 superduty pickups and chassis cab vehicles from the 2005 model year because their fuel line may separate from the main fuel bundle.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/13/Autos/ford_recall.reut/

[ozymandius]

38. I just found something I read over the weekend re: Warren Buffett

He explains how the Bush administration is ruining our nation's finances for the sake of trickle-down economic fairy tales.

Known as a significant stakeholder in multiple corporations such as American Express (Research), Coca-Cola (Research) and most recently Anheuser-Busch (Research), Berkshire Hathaway currently sits on approximately $40 billion in cash. While Buffett is keeping mum about an insurance acquisition his company recently made, he indicated that there are very few other investment prospects worthy of his company's roughly $40 billion in cash.

-cut-

Shareholders shied away from confronting Buffett on the scandal surrounding General Re Corp. during their annual rendezvous, but Wednesday he said he supported the government's probe surrounding the insurance industry, including the Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, following their dealings with American International Group (Research).

"We'll find out what has taken place. Some things that were actually legal a few years ago will probably be found to be distasteful. There will be things that are found that were probably be illegal. But there's nothing wrong with looking at the insurance industry," he said.

-cut-

Buffett, worth $44 billion, advocated that a potential solution to the budget deficit is to increase taxes on corporations and the rich, like himself.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/04/news/newsmakers/buffett/index.htm

[RawMaterials]

42. more info from That article

"We exported $1.1 trillion and imported over $1.7 trillion and we are running up obligations to the rest of the world and they are buying our assets at the rate of $2 billion per day and that will have consequences," he said.

"If we keep doing what we're doing now and show no sign of slowing down, the world will own a greater percentage of this country 10 years from now."

Buffett noted that the ballooning trade and budget deficits should be rectified before the President attempts to tackle Social Security reform. He also noted that he didn't understand why the President was spending so much time dealing with a problem so far down the road when the current budget deficit is four times the potential Social Security shortfall.

[ozymandius]

39. 12:50 and creeping lower

Dow 10,560.85 +48.22 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,072.69 +9.69 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,203.48 +5.37 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.083% +0.04
NYSE Volume 828,674,000
Nasdaq Volume 779,220,000

12:30PM: The indices have lost some of the bullish steam from earlier... Consequently, they have faded from their best levels of the day while the Treasury market has been in the process of paring some of the larger losses it experienced earlier in the day... All 10 economic sectors remain in positive territory, so the latest pullback looks to be the result of stocks simply paring larger gains as opposed to a pullback being led by material weakness in any particular area...

To that end, the performance of the technology and financial sectors into the close will likely provide directional cues for participants... NYSE Adv/Dec 1841/1259, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1533/1272

12:00PM: Trading activity began on an uneventful note as the major indices languished in narrow trading ranges that kept them close to the unchanged mark through the first hour of the session... Since 10:30 ET, however, there has been a distinctly bullish bias that has carried the indices close to their best levels of the day as the lunch hour beckons on the East Coast... There wasn't any specific news catalyst for the sudden upswing, but active participation by the technology (+0.8%) and basic materials (+1.20%) sectors created some buying excitement that soon spilled over to other groups...

As of now, every economic sector is showing a gain... Separately, the back-end of the Treasuy curve has been negative throughout the trading day ahead of a host of economic data this week that begins with the Retail Sales and PPI reports tomorrow... The weakness in the Treasury market may be playing a factor in the stock market's strength as it can be speculated that equities are being helped by an asset allocation trade...

[ozymandius]

40. range bound again

1:10
Dow 10,565.61 +52.98 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,073.12 +10.12 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,203.88 +5.77 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 40.86 +0.39 (+0.96%)
NYSE Volume 883,989,000
Nasdaq Volume 821,160,000

1:00PM: The major indices were confined to narrow ranges in the first hour of trading today and that has been the case in the first hour of the afternoon session as well... The big difference is that the indices are comfortably above the unchanged mark now versus having languished around the unchanged mark when trading began... Large-cap technology is where today's main leadership is found as evidenced by the 0.9% increase in the Nasdaq 100 versus 0.5% increases in the Dow, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1832/1307, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1522/1311

[RawMaterials]

41. 2:00 Market Update and Blather

Dow 10542.59 +29.96 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2069.27 +6.27 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1201.59 +3.48 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.082% +0.35
NYSE Volume 1,044,546,000
Nasdaq Volume 970,695,000



2:00PM: Indices have drifted lower within a tight trading range this afternoon as buying efforts witnessed earlier have tapered off... Separately, the dollar has been garnereing some added attention today as it continues its rally against the yen and euro... The dollar's run has been attributed in part to an expectation of higher interest rates in the U.S.... The strength in the greenback, though, is inviting concerns about earnings prospects for multinational companies that are being viewed as a potential restraint on the broader market... NYSE Adv/Dec 1888/1305, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1569/1320

1:30PM: Indices are holding steady, not too far from their best levels of the session as sellers have been on hiatus for the better part of today's trade... By and large, though, there hasn't been a lot of active participation from buyers either as evidenced by the relatively light trading volume at both the NYSE (664 mln) and Nasdaq (832 mln).... Again, the recognition that there is a good deal of important, and telling, economic data on the horizon is probably serving as a restraining influence... Tomorrow's line-up includes the Retail Sales and PPI reports for May...

[DoBotherMe]

43. KICK n/t

[RawMaterials]

44. 3:30 Numbers and Blather

Dow 10520.34 +7.71 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2067.46 +4.46 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1199.88 +1.77 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.086% +0.39

NYSE Volume 1,374,480,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,248,923,000



3:30PM: The last hour of trading so far has turned out to be a disappointment for bullish-minded participants as sellers have stepped back into the fray and have knocked the indices back close to unchanged for the day... At their highs of the session, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were up 77, 15, and 8 points, respectively... Strikingly, the financial sector (-0.1%) is in negative territory for the day and is acting as an influential drag on the broader market... NYSE Adv/Dec 1695/1527, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1446/1518

3:00PM: Selling activity has abated somewhat, which has allowed the indices to reclaim a bit of the ground they lost during the pullback... Although gains are modest in scope, there is some fairly broad-based participation in the advance as the consumer staples sector (-0.06%) is the only one of the ten economic sectors now that isn't showing a gain... Telecom services (+1.0%) and basic materials (+0.90%) are today's top performing areas, but combined, they only account for approximately 6.0% of the S&P's market cap...

Technology (+0.5%) and health care (+0.60%), meanwhile, account for close to 30% of the S&P's market cap and are the key sources behind the market's positive disposition at this juncture... NYSE Adv/Dec 1810/1418, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1454/1485

2:30PM: Indices are pulling back from earlier highs in orderly fashion, but not without cause... A spike in crude prices this afternoon, which is coming ahead of OPEC's June 15 meeting in Vienna to discuss production quotas, is driving the retreat... Reportedly, there isn't much confidence in OPEC being able to do much to curtail rising oil prices since it isn't believed the cartel has enough spare production capacity to follow through on any announced increases to production quotas...

This view has acted as the catalyst for the spike in crude futures (+$2.01 at $55.55/bbl) that is benefitting the energy services stocks, but eating into the gains seen earlier in many sectors...NYSE Adv/Dec 1845/1361, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1487/1411

[Roland99]

45. NYMEX crude up $2, heating oil highest since Apr. 4

http://channels.netscape.com/ns/news/story.jsp?id=2005061314220002720098&dt=20050613142200&w=RTR&coview=

NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose $2 a barrel on Monday as heating oil prices surged to their highest since April 4.

NYMEX July crude futures traded up $2.21 at $55.75 a barrel.

July heating oil was up 6.66 cents at $1.674 a gallon.

Fill up on your way home, folks. ;)

[RawMaterials]

46. funny how the numbers keep doing things like this

July heating oil was up 6.66 cents at $1.674 a gallon.

[Roland99]

48. Great googly moogly!

:evilgrin:

[Maeve]

49. The devil you say! eom

[Maeve]

47. Probably a major reason for the weak afternoon

Altho there wasn't a good reason for the strong morning so who knows?

[RawMaterials]

50. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10522.56 +9.93 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2068.96 +5.96 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1200.82 +2.71 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.086% +0.39

NYSE Volume 1,617,187,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,430,600,000


Close: The stock market held its ground today in the face of an earnings warning from Morgan Stanley (MWD 50.88, +1.00) and a surge in oil prices ahead of OPEC's meeting Wednesday in Vienna... Its resilience can be attributed mostly to the gains registered in the telecom services (+1.0%), basic materials (+0.7%), health care (+0.5%) and technology (+0.4%) sectors, but it can't be said that there was a lot of conviction behind those buying efforts...

To wit, volume at the NYSE and Nasdaq was on the light side as participants held their respective interests in check, mindful that a batch of important, and telling, economic data is on the horizon... Specifically, there are the Retail Sales and PPI reports on Tuesday, the CPI and Industrial Production reports on Wednesday, Housing Starts on Thursday, and the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday... That said, there was a rally effort made in the morning session that saw the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P gain 77, 15, and 8 points, respectively, at their best levels of the session...

There wasn't a specific news item that served as an excuse for that uptick, but it was noted that the rally try in equities coincided with a retreat in the Treasury market... Accordingly, there was speculation that the move had to do with an asset allocation trade that favored the technology and basic materials sectors... The move was short-lived, though, as the indices spent the better part of the afternoon retracing the gains posted in the morning session.... Rising oil prices were a factor in that pullback as crude futures (+$2.08) moving back above $55/barrel provided an excuse to sell into the early strength... The move in oil was attributed to the oft-cited concern about supply being inadequate to meet demand...

In this instance, it was driven by a belief that OPEC, despite any effort to raise production quotas at this week's meeting, doesn't have the spare production capacity necessary to curtail energy prices in a meaningful way... Separately, it is worth noting that the financial sector (+0.02%) saw its morning strength fade in the afternoon which, in turn, acted as an influential weight on the broader market... The consumer staples (-0.3%) and industrials (-0.01%) sectors, however, were the only economic sectors that failed to post a gain on Monday...

In corporate news, the biggest story of the day was the announcement by Morgan Stanley's CEO, Philip Purcell, that he would be retiring on account of the negative media attention surrounding his management and the mass defections of late by key personnel... This news, in effect, overshadowed a separate announcement from Morgan Stanley that it expected Q2 EPS to come in well below consensus estimates due to weakened market conditions...

On a brighter note, United Technologies (UTX 52.72, +0.26) reaffirmed its FY05 EPS outlook and joined with the likes of Caterpillar (CAT 97.58, +0.56), AIG Group (AIG 55.50, +0.41), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 23.89, +0.47) to produce a positive finish for the Dow... NYSE Adv/Dec 1869/1406, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1610/1391

[salin]

51. looks like another sideways week is starting off

little moves up and down - but evened out to look pretty much sideways.